Climate Risk Management最新文献

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Local to regional-scale mechanisms behind successful climate services for agriculture in Latin America 拉丁美洲成功的农业气候服务背后的地方到区域尺度机制
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学
Climate Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100721
Diana Giraldo , David Ríos , Carlos Navarro-Racines , Kemly Camacho , Armando Martínez-Valle , Steven D. Prager , Diego Obando , Carlos Zelaya , Deissy Martínez-Baron , Ángel G. Muñoz , Julian Ramirez-Villegas
{"title":"Local to regional-scale mechanisms behind successful climate services for agriculture in Latin America","authors":"Diana Giraldo ,&nbsp;David Ríos ,&nbsp;Carlos Navarro-Racines ,&nbsp;Kemly Camacho ,&nbsp;Armando Martínez-Valle ,&nbsp;Steven D. Prager ,&nbsp;Diego Obando ,&nbsp;Carlos Zelaya ,&nbsp;Deissy Martínez-Baron ,&nbsp;Ángel G. Muñoz ,&nbsp;Julian Ramirez-Villegas","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100721","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100721","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The provision of climate services (CS) has grown at an unprecedented rate over the last decade in response to climate-related risks in several sectors of the global economy; this is especially true in agriculture. Several studies document lessons learnt from (un)successful climate services, and attempt to distil these into key principles, recommendations, or requirements. However, limited systematic analysis and data on the characteristics of the CS that are conducive to success exist to date, including for agriculture. Here, we analyse the Local Technical Agroclimatic Committees (referred to here by its Spanish acronym MTAs) as a CS approach that effectively delivers information to farmers sustainably and at local scale. We propose a framework comprising sixteen metrics that help measure the effectiveness, sustainability, and scalability as key dimensions of CS success. We apply this framework to 26 MTAs across four Latin American countries, namely, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Colombia. The analyses revealed that the MTAs played a significant role in CS transformation pathways, producing a total of 158 outcomes (changes in behaviour of people or institutions), and involving at least 279 institutions at various levels and with diverse roles. Analyses of the sixteen metrics revealed a wide range of performance across the 26 MTAs, with nearly half of the MTAs considered to have or nearly-achieved effectiveness, sustainability, and scalability. MTAs success stems not only from an increase in numbers of farmers and locations reached but also from the evolving roles and responsibilities of a diverse ecosystem of actors that accompany enhanced capacities and tangible benefits on the ground. Based on these results, we propose key CS elements, namely, collaboration; participation; adaptability and flexibility; financial (crowd) resourcing; robust governance and strong leadership; awareness of and improvements in data availability, quality, and assurance; capacity development; user-centred communication; adequate incentives; and enabling policy environment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100721"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144313137","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Climate information services enhance farmers’ resilience to climate change: Impacts on agricultural productivity 气候信息服务提高农民对气候变化的适应能力:对农业生产力的影响
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学
Climate Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100724
Seneshaw Tamru , James Hansen , Stephen Zebiak , Abonesh Tesfaye , Bart Minten , Teferi Demissie , Maren Radeny , Kindie Tesfaye , Dawit Solomon
{"title":"Climate information services enhance farmers’ resilience to climate change: Impacts on agricultural productivity","authors":"Seneshaw Tamru ,&nbsp;James Hansen ,&nbsp;Stephen Zebiak ,&nbsp;Abonesh Tesfaye ,&nbsp;Bart Minten ,&nbsp;Teferi Demissie ,&nbsp;Maren Radeny ,&nbsp;Kindie Tesfaye ,&nbsp;Dawit Solomon","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100724","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100724","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ethiopia is a climate “hotspot” where the variable and changing climate periodically threatens agricultural production, food security, and human well-being. Using two-rounds of Feed the Future program survey data that cover 3,799 farming households in five major regions in Ethiopia, and employing panel data estimation methods, we analyze the potential impact of weather and climate services (WCS) on agricultural productivity and farmers’ resilience in Ethiopia. We found that access to WCS increases the productivity of maize and wheat crops by 27 % and 17 %, respectively. These estimates are comparable to or higher than conventional yield-increasing production technologies such as fertilizer and improved seeds. Despite such a strong productivity effect, access to WCS is limited to only 18 % of the surveyed farmers. This study adds to the existing body of evidence on the significant positive impact of WCS, and affirms the importance of weather and climate information service products to enhance farmers’ resilience to climate risk. Further analyses are needed to estimate the value to Ethiopia’s smallholder farmers, especially those who are most vulnerable to climate-related hazards, of increasing investment in improving seasonal climate forecasts, mainstreaming weather and climate services in the agricultural extension system, including through National Framework for Climate Services (NFCS), and supporting farmer decision-making with climate-informed digital advisory tools and training.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100724"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144471164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Climate-smart aquaculture practice: Changes in economic viability and efficiency of mud crab fattening in coastal Bangladesh 气候智能型水产养殖实践:孟加拉国沿海地区泥蟹养殖经济可行性和效率的变化
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学
Climate Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100726
Md. Hayder Khan Sujan , Md Abdur Rouf Sarkar , Monira Sultana , Md. Ali Akber , Andrew M. McKenzie , Mohammad Mizanul Haque Kazal , Imrul Islam , Ammar Abdul Aziz
{"title":"Climate-smart aquaculture practice: Changes in economic viability and efficiency of mud crab fattening in coastal Bangladesh","authors":"Md. Hayder Khan Sujan ,&nbsp;Md Abdur Rouf Sarkar ,&nbsp;Monira Sultana ,&nbsp;Md. Ali Akber ,&nbsp;Andrew M. McKenzie ,&nbsp;Mohammad Mizanul Haque Kazal ,&nbsp;Imrul Islam ,&nbsp;Ammar Abdul Aziz","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100726","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100726","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Crab fattening has been flourishing along the coastal regions of South Asian countries, including Bangladesh, offering significant livelihood opportunities for local dwellers, yet its economic viability remains underexplored. This study evaluates the economic viability (profitability and risk), determinants of crab production, technical efficiency, and factors contributing to inefficiency among crab fatteners in coastal Bangladesh, utilizing panel data from 2018 and 2023, for the first time. Fixed-effects regression was employed to identify the drivers of crab production, while a true random-effects Cobb-Douglas panel stochastic frontier model was used to estimate technical efficiency. The profitability of crab fattening declined from USD 3,978 per hectare in 2018 to USD 3,351 per hectare in 2023. Despite this decline, both crab production and prices increased over time, mitigating the risk of losses and ultimately enhancing economic viability. Factors positively influencing production included age, education, income, access to credit, proximity to output markets, crab price, crablet stocking, feed, and water exchange, whereas disease prevalence had a negative impact. The mean technical efficiency of crab fatteners improved from 0.69 in 2018 to 0.74 in 2023. Education, income, crab price, and market proximity positively influenced technical efficiency, while distance to extension offices and disease prevalence negatively impacted it. Enhanced extension support, improved access to credit, fair market pricing, and the development of hatcheries for quality crablet could bolster the success of this climate-smart aquaculture practice, aiding Bangladesh in achieving Sustainable Development Goal 2.3 of doubling the agricultural productivity and income of small-scale farmers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100726"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144611618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Floating and stilted structures as strategies in coastal climate adaptation: Local monsoon adaptation practices and implications for flood risk management 作为沿海气候适应策略的浮式和架空结构:当地季风适应实践及其对洪水风险管理的影响
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学
Climate Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100719
Stefan Huebner
{"title":"Floating and stilted structures as strategies in coastal climate adaptation: Local monsoon adaptation practices and implications for flood risk management","authors":"Stefan Huebner","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100719","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100719","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The physical “advance” onto aquatic surfaces through the use of floating structures is a new climate adaptation strategy for coastal regions. Sea level rise concerns have prompted international organizations like the IPCC and the UN to explore this <em>advance strategy</em>. The effectiveness of these floating structures, including floating buildings, as an adaptation strategy depends on social acceptance. This study applies a comparative analysis of case studies, identified through a systematic review of qualitative historical and present data, to investigate local forms of adaptation knowledge. Using data regarding parts of Asia, Africa, and South America, conceptually connected by the global monsoon system’s local impacts, it analyzes how advances onto or above aquatic surfaces using vernacular designs have affected inhabitants’ adaptation to the aquatic environment. It argues that vernacular houseboats, floating structures, and stilted (pile-elevated above the surface) structures have historically been a common, though not always environmentally sustainable, adaptation practice. The case studies of vernacular design knowledge support the serious consideration of the advance strategy in transformative coastal climate adaptation. Based on the findings, the article further argues that while vernacular stilted structures offer advantages for living on aquatic surfaces, their technologically advanced counterparts are impractical compared to technologically advanced floating structures. Research on this topic addresses a gap in the literature, as it connects vernacular and advanced implementations of the advance strategy to the booming interdisciplinary field of coastal climate adaptation, vernacular adaptation knowledge, and new guidelines for sustainable, socially accepted urban development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100719"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144702580","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Enriching the European Shared Socio-economic Pathways with considerations of biodiversity and nature using a nexus approach 利用联系方法丰富欧洲共享的社会经济路径,考虑生物多样性和自然
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学
Climate Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100741
Anita Lazurko , HyeJin Kim , George Linney , Elizabeth Díaz-General , Simeon Vaňo , Zuzana V. Harmáčková , Mark Rounsevell , Paula A. Harrison
{"title":"Enriching the European Shared Socio-economic Pathways with considerations of biodiversity and nature using a nexus approach","authors":"Anita Lazurko ,&nbsp;HyeJin Kim ,&nbsp;George Linney ,&nbsp;Elizabeth Díaz-General ,&nbsp;Simeon Vaňo ,&nbsp;Zuzana V. Harmáčková ,&nbsp;Mark Rounsevell ,&nbsp;Paula A. Harrison","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100741","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100741","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The global climate and biodiversity crises are deeply interconnected, yet current research and policy frameworks often treat them in isolation. The widely used Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), which underpin climate change assessments and guide policy, exemplify this gap: they neglect biodiversity and nature, overlooking critical feedbacks between socio-economic and environmental systems. This omission constrains options for addressing both crises simultaneously and obscures cascading risks. We address this gap through a co-creation process at the European scale, enriching the European-SSPs with considerations of biodiversity and nature using a nexus approach (spanning biodiversity, energy, food, health, water, and transport). We compare the original and enriched narratives through a systems analysis, revealing a substantial increase in system complexity that shifts the relative significance of indirect drivers across SSPs due to novel feedbacks with biodiversity and other sectors. For example, across several scenarios economic and technological development reinforce unsustainable resource extraction, even if partially oriented toward sustainability. In contrast, governance, environmental respect and social cohesion prove critical to enabling positive outcomes for biodiversity but can also perpetuate biodiversity loss if not fully aligned with environmental goals. These findings highlight the need for adaptive approaches that respond to emergent socio-economic conditions and systemic policymaking that accompanies technical interventions with improvements in governance. They also demonstrate how ‘biodiversity-centric’ scenarios can strengthen the IPCC scenario framework by capturing critical feedbacks between biodiversity and socio-economic drivers of climate change, enabling more integrated research and policy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100741"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145099510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impact of current and historical climate shocks on crop diversification in Zambia: Insights from household- and district-level observations 当前和历史气候冲击对赞比亚作物多样化的影响:来自家庭和地区层面观察的见解
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学
Climate Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100683
Junren Wang , Megan Konar , Patrese Nicole Anderson , Protensia Hadunka , Brian Mulenga
{"title":"Impact of current and historical climate shocks on crop diversification in Zambia: Insights from household- and district-level observations","authors":"Junren Wang ,&nbsp;Megan Konar ,&nbsp;Patrese Nicole Anderson ,&nbsp;Protensia Hadunka ,&nbsp;Brian Mulenga","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100683","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100683","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Crop diversification is a farming practice for risk management prevalent in smallholder agriculture, offering adaptive benefits against challenges like climate change, price fluctuations, and crop disease. Despite its importance, there is a lack of comprehensive understanding of the relationship of crop diversification and current and historical climate shock. Our study seeks to bridge this gap through statistical analysis of household- and district-level data in Zambia. Specifically, we use the Pooled Fractional Probit (PFP) estimator to develop regression models for crop diversification, analyzing 6625 households for 3 years and 74 districts for 9 years, using Rural Agriculture Living Survey (RALS) and Crop Forecast Survey (CFS) datasets, respectively. Simpson’s Diversity Index (SDI) of crops serves as the dependent variable and is consistently higher at the district level than at the household level, suggesting that aggregation at larger scales may mask localized monoculture vulnerabilities. Our findings reveal that both current and historical climate shocks significantly influence crop diversification decisions at both the household and district levels in Zambia. Heat stress and rainfall deficits during the planting season promote crop diversification, but their effects vary due to the diverse agroecological conditions and crop characteristics in different areas. Historical climate shocks prompt farmers to diversify as a long-term resilience strategy. This study emphasizes the complex, scale-dependent drivers of crop diversification in response to climate shocks, providing valuable insights for policy development in climate-resilient agricultural strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100683"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Are the risks and uncertainties as constraints to investing in climate-smart innovations a red herring? Financial cost-benefit analysis evidence from 11 countries in Africa and Asia 将风险和不确定性作为投资气候智慧型创新的制约因素,这是在转移注意力吗?来自非洲和亚洲11个国家的财务成本效益分析证据
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学
Climate Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100734
Stanley Karanja Ng’ang’a , Devinia Princess Akinyi , Evan Hartunian Girvetz
{"title":"Are the risks and uncertainties as constraints to investing in climate-smart innovations a red herring? Financial cost-benefit analysis evidence from 11 countries in Africa and Asia","authors":"Stanley Karanja Ng’ang’a ,&nbsp;Devinia Princess Akinyi ,&nbsp;Evan Hartunian Girvetz","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100734","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100734","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate-Smart agricultural (CSA) practices such as drought resistant varieties, water saving techniques etc. have gained considerable attention due to their potential to address climate change impacts. However, uncertainties remain regarding their financial profitability and risk implications across diverse conditions, which may contribute to low adoption rates. This study conducted a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis using data from 11 countries to assess the financial viability of these practices. The analysis revealed a range of net present values (NPV) associated with the innovations, from US$ 508 to US$ 38,793 (2020 dollars). The internal rate of return (IRR) varied between 20 % and 490 %. Sensitivity analysis affirmed the financial profitability and minimal risk of the studied innovations. Considering the influence of discount rates, a reduction of 50 % and 100 % in the discount rate resulted in an average NPV increase of 20 % and 35 %, respectively. The NPV was found to be most sensitive to changes in yield, followed by the discount rate. Measures and incentives aimed at providing access to capital at lower or subsidized rates were identified as potential drivers for increasing adoption rates. Monte Carlo simulation demonstrated that the adoption of these innovations is worthwhile, with a low risk of capital loss. To facilitate the widespread adoption of promising CSA practices, governments should support strategies that minimize risks faced by smallholder farmers. Additionally, efforts to enhance climate adaptation at scale should be coupled with financial and policy support. This study underscores the importance of evidence-based analysis in guiding decision-making and emphasizes the need for continuous support and resources for CSA implementation.</div><div>Practical implications</div><div>Having evidence-based cases on the benefits and costs of climate change adaptation is crucial for decision-making, particularly in the agricultural sector. This information serves as a valuable starting point for policymakers and practitioners to choose efficient climate adaptation options, especially for smallholder farmers. It provides a strong justification for adopting and scaling up these options, while also motivating policymakers to allocate more financial resources to adaptation, particularly in developing countries.</div><div>In any investment decision-making process, it is crucial to consider risks and uncertainties. Taking these factors into account helps guide the decision-making process and enables a deeper understanding of the external environment dynamics. By factoring in risks and uncertainties, investors can gain confidence in achieving positive returns while minimizing the likelihood of financial losses. Additionally, policymakers can better comprehend the perspectives of smallholder farmers and make informed decisions about which climate adaptation strategies to adopt and which ones to avoid.</div><div>The present study ","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100734"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144853001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Vulnerability and climate risk assessment in the Ecuadorian Amazon Region, based on ecological and socioeconomic infrastructures 基于生态和社会经济基础设施的厄瓜多尔亚马逊地区脆弱性和气候风险评估
IF 5 2区 环境科学与生态学
Climate Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100736
Miguel Quishpe , Irene Acosta-Vargas , Adrian Buenaño , Bryan Rosero , Maria Reyes , Gustavo Duran , Rasa Zalakeviciute
{"title":"Vulnerability and climate risk assessment in the Ecuadorian Amazon Region, based on ecological and socioeconomic infrastructures","authors":"Miguel Quishpe ,&nbsp;Irene Acosta-Vargas ,&nbsp;Adrian Buenaño ,&nbsp;Bryan Rosero ,&nbsp;Maria Reyes ,&nbsp;Gustavo Duran ,&nbsp;Rasa Zalakeviciute","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100736","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100736","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change is currently one of the greatest global concerns, as it increases the probability and magnitude of climate threats, putting population at risk, particularly in vulnerable regions such as the Ecuadorian Amazon Region (EAR). This area is known for its exceptional biodiversity and indigenous ethnic diversity but faces significant socioeconomic and environmental problems. The culturally diverse Amazonian tribes historically inhabit remote and difficult-to-access regions, which is reflected in low-level infrastructure and limited access to social services. These characteristics, combined with the lack of quantifiable data for the EAR, hinder the development of effective adaptation plans for climate hazards. To address this challenge, the present study evaluated climate risks under the current conditions and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The study followed the recommendations of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) and Methods for the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment (MOVE). Fuzzy logic was employed for the normalization and aggregation of multiple indicators classified under ecological and socioeconomic infrastructures. This approach allows the handling of scattered and complex information by generating partial or intermediate values, unlike classical logic, which is limited to binary outcomes (true or false). The main findings indicate that climate risk is high across the EAR in all scenarios, with particularly sever risks in the northern part of the region. Three consistent hotspots were identified in Lago Agrio, Shushufindi and Orellana, municipalities located within indigenous territories. This research provides a framework to support decision-making based on spatial analysis of climate-related information.<!--> <!-->We recommend incorporating ecological infrastructure into the development of holistic climate change adaptation plans, complementing traditional socio-economic assessments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100736"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144890459","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessing vulnerability and climate risk to agriculture for developing resilient farming strategies in the Ganges Delta 评估农业的脆弱性和气候风险,以制定恒河三角洲的抗灾农业战略
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学
Climate Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100690
Uttam Kumar Mandal , Fazlul Karim , Yingying Yu , Amit Ghosh , Taslima Zahan , Sonali Mallick , Mohammad Kamruzzaman , Priya Lal Chandra Paul , Mohammed Mainuddin
{"title":"Assessing vulnerability and climate risk to agriculture for developing resilient farming strategies in the Ganges Delta","authors":"Uttam Kumar Mandal ,&nbsp;Fazlul Karim ,&nbsp;Yingying Yu ,&nbsp;Amit Ghosh ,&nbsp;Taslima Zahan ,&nbsp;Sonali Mallick ,&nbsp;Mohammad Kamruzzaman ,&nbsp;Priya Lal Chandra Paul ,&nbsp;Mohammed Mainuddin","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100690","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100690","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Ganges Delta supports a unique coastal ecosystem that is highly susceptible to global climate change. This paper presents results from a study on climate change impacts on coastal agriculture in the deltaic regions of Bangladesh and India. The study examined how risk emerges from the interaction of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Climate hazards for the 89 administrative units (upazila in Bangladesh and block in India) were assessed using future climate data from the IPCC’s 6th assessment report. Hazard levels were assessed by integrating the impacts of four temperature extremes and five rainfall extremes critical to crop growth. Through an extensive literature review, 18 biophysical and socio-economic variables were identified as critical and policy-relevant, including three related to exposure and 15 to vulnerability. All indicators were normalized to a dimensionless scale ranging from 0 to 1 for use in vulnerability and risk assessments. Three upazilas in Bangladesh were classified as being under very high climate hazard. The exposure score was found to be relatively higher along Indian coast compared to Bangladesh coast. Among the 89 administrative units analyzed, five upazilas in Bangladesh and two blocks in India were identified under very high vulnerability index, covering 18.6% the area and 8.13% of the total population. When combining vulnerability and climate hazard, three upazilas in Bangladesh and one block in India were identified under very high risk to agriculture. These findings provide a practical framework for developing sustainable agricultural strategies and addressing climate risks in the Ganges Delta and other similar coastal ecosystems worldwide.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100690"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143166701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What it means to be resilient to heatwaves for vulnerable households in mass tourist destinations? 对于大众旅游目的地的脆弱家庭来说,抵御热浪意味着什么?
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学
Climate Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100688
Hyerim Yoon, Anna Ribas
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