Climate Risk Management最新文献

{"title":"Unseen suffering: Social injustice among women during climate-induced migration in Pakistan","authors":"Wahid Ullah ,&nbsp;Haijun Dong ,&nbsp;Ashfaq Ahmad Shah ,&nbsp;Bader Alhafi Alotaibi ,&nbsp;Muhammad Khursid ,&nbsp;Takaaki Nihei","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100663","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100663","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Women are highly exposed to climate-induced natural disasters in Pakistan due to socio-cultural barriers resulting in heightened social injustice among them. This paper investigates the drivers of social injustice during forced migration among women living in vulnerable areas of Pakistan. The study utilized data from fifteen key informants’ interviews by employing a systematic narrative analysis to investigate women’s responses towards migration and gender dimensions of adverse climatic events. The results show that economic, socio-cultural, and health related factors were among the key contributors exposing women to social injustice during migration while in search for better life. The findings further unveiled that decisions regarding migration were mainly taken by the household heads especially who in most cases were the male family members. In all circumstances, securing lives, livelihoods, and properties, access to better education, healthcare facilities, and to overall improve socioeconomic situation of the household, were the primary goals of deciding to move to newfound. Given that some members of the household pursue migration as a result of adverse climatic events, government strategies are required to mitigate risks at destinations and create opportunities for the displaced populations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100663"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142654233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Using social-network analysis to map institutional actors’ links with vulnerable municipalities under climate change in Honduras’ dry corridor. Pathways towards improved cooperation and territorial interventions","authors":"Carlos Eduardo Gonzalez-Rodriguez ,&nbsp;Irma Ayes-Rivera ,&nbsp;Jean-Francois Le Coq ,&nbsp;Rafael Renteria-Ramos ,&nbsp;Johana Marcela Castillo-Rivera","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100664","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100664","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Honduras dry corridor, located in Central America’s Pacific region, has high natural climate variability. Nearly half of the Honduran population depends on socio-economic activities linked to agriculture, making climate-change adaptation crucial for the agricultural sector to ensure food and nutrition security. This research analyzes how institutional structures function and interact as a network to investigate the spatial coherence and relevance of public- and private-sector interventions related to agriculture, climate change, and food security in 153 municipalities of Honduras’ dry corridor. We employed a Social Network Analysis (SNA) approach to examine these interactions over the territories, revealing two network patterns: the first favors a single municipality, observed only in the Central District where Honduras’ capital is located; the second is an egocentric network, favoring a single institution, observed in four cases, particularly in municipalities bordering with El Salvador and Guatemala. The SNA results reveal a spatial misalignment, where only 9% of interventions linked to climate-change adaptation are conducted in the highly vulnerable, outlying zones located farthest from the capital. The study highlights the need for improved coordination and strategic prioritization of interventions in the most vulnerable municipalities within the Honduras dry corridor, specifically improvement in collaborative actions, use of resources, and setting strategic priorities in regions where future demand will require progressively mobilizing institutional capabilities. By identifying the current gaps and misalignments in institutional actions, this research provides valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders to enhance collaborative efforts to ensure that climate-change adaptation measures effectively target the most vulnerable areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100664"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142654221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"CLIM-SEG: A generalizable segmentation model for heat and flood risk mapping","authors":"Anushka Ray ,&nbsp;Katherine Xu ,&nbsp;Norhan Bayomi,&nbsp;John E. Fernandez","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100654","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100654","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the escalating impact of climate change coupled with increased urbanization, many cities will experience extreme heat events and intense flooding. Current modeling approaches often fail to incorporate high-resolution, frequently updated data sources, such as aerial imagery from web mapping platforms, limiting their effectiveness in identifying areas at risk. To address this gap, the paper presents CLIM-SEG, a novel framework for high-resolution urban heat and flood risk assessment, addressing critical gaps in current climate risk modeling. This framework integrates semantic segmentation of aerial imagery with a weighted sum approach that integrates environmental, socioeconomic, and building data to provide comprehensive risk evaluations at the census tract level. CLIM-SEG synthesize land cover data with hazard and vulnerability factors, producing risk scores ranging from 0 to 1. This low-cost and efficient framework can enable urban planners to prioritize resources for flood mitigation and heat adaptation, addressing the limitations of current approaches and contributing to the field of urban planning and climate change adaptation. The propoosed methodology incorporates a custom-curated dataset of 545 aerial images, including 145 manually annotated segmentation maps, to fine-tune advanced semantic segmentation models. The optimized Segmenter model achieves a pixel accuracy of 97.85% and an Intersection over Union (IoU) of 0.9578 for key urban features, significantly outperforming baseline models. Boston is selected to represent an ideal representation for both heat and flood risk, as the city experiences severe urban heat islands, and is susceptible to coastal and riverine flooding, with over 11,000 structures expected to be affected by 2070 due to sea level rise and increased precipitation. Results from flood and heat risk models indicate that census tracts in South End have the highest flood risk, with a weighted score value of 0.825, while census tracts in the Fenway-Kenmore neighborhood show the highest heat risk, with a score of 0.991. Both of these results have also been verified with other heat and flood risk mapping sources for Boston. The proposed framework of CLIM-SEG not only addresses the challenges faced by Boston but also has the potential to be scaled to other urban areas dealing with the impacts of climate change, providing a valuable tool for risk assessment and decision-making in the face of a changing climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100654"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142419240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change worry in the times of the COVID-19 pandemic. Evidence from two large-scale European surveys","authors":"Ádám Stefkovics ,&nbsp;Csilla Ágoston ,&nbsp;Emőke Bukovenszki ,&nbsp;Andrea Dúll ,&nbsp;Olivér Hortay ,&nbsp;Attila Varga","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100599","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2024.100599","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Climate change beliefs drive individual actions tackling climate change and influence the support of climate change policies. In the last two years, however, humanity has faced a parallel global crisis: the COVID-19 pandemic. The widely communicated finite pool of worry theory suggests that consideration of a crisis usually decreases when another crisis is emerging. Nevertheless, according to recent evidence, climate change concerns or awareness have increased during the pandemic. In this study, we aimed at describing recent changes in climate change concerns and examining the effect of COVID-fear on climate change worry in 28 European countries drawing on data from nationally representative surveys. We observed a strong increase in climate change concerns between 2016 and 2021, and a slight additional increase between during the pandemic (between 2020 and 2021) in the 28 countries examined, especially in those countries, where the level of concern was originally lower. The results of the multilevel models showed that COVID-19 fear reinforces climate change concerns which contradicts the finite pool of worry theory. These findings may come as good news given that increasing climate change concerns may raise individuals' support of climate policies, however, carefully designed awareness-raising campaigns are needed.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"44 ","pages":"Article 100599"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000160/pdfft?md5=b82b4fa5710a4f821188d9d24f0a4eb2&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000160-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140134525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Delayed, abrupt and unjust: An institutionalist perspective on limits to climate change adaptation","authors":"Frans Berkhout ,&nbsp;Kirstin Dow ,&nbsp;Adelle Thomas","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100611","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100611","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>An actor-centred, risk-based framework for analysing limits to the capacity to adapt to climate change impacts, developed in the context of IPCC AR5 (Dow et al,. 2013b), was refined in the IPCC AR6 reports (Mechler et al., 2020; O’Neill et al., 2022; Thomas et al., 2021). In this paper, we centre the analysis on how institutional contexts shape and influence adaptation limits as experienced by social actors. We emphasise institutions’ stability over time leading to delayed adaptation, their role in protecting more powerful rather than weaker social interests, and their tendency to generate punctuated rather than smooth changes in vulnerability to climate risks. We illustrate these arguments with two case studies of socio-ecological institutional regimes facing adaptation limits: water resources management in the Colorado River Basin; and disaster risk management in The Bahamas. These represent divergent risk governance contexts generating limits to adaptation for multiple social actors, despite the availability of plausible adaptation pathways. Our aim is to contribute to a generalisable approach to adaptation limits which can be applied in identifying and assessing critical choices in responses to growing climate change impacts.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"44 ","pages":"Article 100611"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000287/pdfft?md5=7e50de03648974c1ea7323810ef0058f&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000287-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140756130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Utilizing land-use indicators for local government adaptation: Tainan City as a case study","authors":"Kuo-Ching Huang ,&nbsp;Shih-Liang Chan ,&nbsp;Chia-Fa Chi","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100643","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100643","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Land-use planning plays a key role in mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. Many strategies for adaptation to climate change are associated with land-use planning, including the use of smart transportation to reduce emissions and coastal buffer zones to enable communities to adapt to rising sea levels. Local governments tend to integrate certain adaptation strategies into their land-use planning by engaging public and private city departments to address aspects such as health and safety. In recent years, many researchers and planners have established a link between climate change adaptation and sustainability development. They have also developed an effective sustainability indicator system for spatial planning. In this study, Tainan City was used as a case study to develop land-use adaptation indicators in response to climate events through the integration of climate change adaptation policies, spatial planning approaches, and local sustainability indicators to establish a structure for developing an indicator program. The main purpose of this indicator system was to monitor the long-term effects of climate and land-use changes in Tainan City and determine the effectiveness of certain adaptation policies through indicators. These land-use indicators are suitable for exploring the risks of and adaptive capacity in response to climate events. Taken together, the findings of this study underscore the importance of using land indicators in exploring the current and future effects of climate change, adaptive action, and land use.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"45 ","pages":"Article 100643"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000603/pdfft?md5=434a0514ad7171882a812a2ec0270e6f&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000603-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141978974","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Updating catastrophe models to today’s climate – An application of a large ensemble approach to extreme rainfall","authors":"Andreas Lang ,&nbsp;Benjamin Poschlod","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100594","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100594","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>As climate change unfolds, extreme weather events and natural hazards relevant for the insurance industry may change in frequency and intensity. In order to guarantee risk-adequate pricing, risk modelers have to ask themselves the question whether a certain ‘hazard’ parameter based on past observations and calibrated on past data is still valid or needs to be updated. Using the example of heavy rainfall between 3 h and 72 h as a proxy for flash flooding, we apply a unique high-resolution single model initial-condition large ensemble. We outline a methodology by which risk modelers can assess whether, where and by how much updating the hazard component of their risk model is needed. Therefore, we compare two time periods: 1980–1999 (as an example for a typical baseline period) and 2015–2034 (representing a 20-year period centered around today). We argue that assessing changes over the full ensemble space is vital for (i) the identification of homogeneous regions where a certain signal emerges, and (ii) the quantification of risk changes in the tail of the extreme value distribution that may still be hidden in the mean response to climate change. In the example case of 3-hourly 50-year rainfall return levels, we find a significant increase between 1980 and 1999 and 2015–2034 over 44 % of European land area. We also identify specific risk regions such as northwestern Spain where changes in the very tail (100-year rainfall return level) already emerge before more common extremes (1-year rainfall return level). Failing to detect and consider these tail changes or assuming equal changes for common and rare extremes may therefore lead to an under- or overestimation of the true level of risk today.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"44 ","pages":"Article 100594"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000111/pdfft?md5=037bc24e8074fdba948027f25a062c0f&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000111-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140054697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An editorial to the Special Issue on “Severe climate Risks”","authors":"A.K. Magnan,&nbsp;B.C. O’Neill,&nbsp;M. Garschagen","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100661","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100661","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100661"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143136351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How do childcare centers cope with heat? – Findings of a mixed-method approach from three German cities","authors":"Antje Otto ,&nbsp;Annegret H. Thieken","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100597","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100597","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Heat poses a crucial threat to human health, and infants and young children are considered as especially vulnerable. Therefore, staff in childcare facilities are responsible for taking actions to minimize health effects caused by heat. So far, however, little is known about the impacts of heat and how heat is dealt with in childcare facilities. To gain insights on this, we used a mixed-method approach including five semi-structured interviews, a survey (n = 51) and three workshops (n = 21) with staff from childcare centers and their overarching facilitating organizations in three mid-sized German cities. This study shows that the extent of heat exposure differs due to heterogeneous physical and structural pre-conditions, but heat-health impacts are still quite common among children as well as staff members. The staff report on various prevention and immediate adaptation measures that have already been or will be implemented indoors and outdoors in case of heat waves. Nevertheless, the study reveals that the warning and information situation needs improvement, and that heat issues need to be better institutionalized in the childcare sector in Germany in order to enhance heat adaptation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"44 ","pages":"Article 100597"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000147/pdfft?md5=6eee5e12d7b9cde08d5ceded4bdae144&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000147-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140150565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Community Adaptation to Heat stress − Social Network Analysis","authors":"Tandra Mondal ,&nbsp;Jayashree Sen ,&nbsp;Rupak Goswami ,&nbsp;Pranab Kumar Nag","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100606","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2024.100606","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Rising climate disasters underscore the overlooked impact of heat stress on health and productivity in densely populated Southeast Asia, particularly vulnerable coastal areas like India's. This study in the Indian Sundarbans employs surveys and social network analysis to explore heat stress effects, community adaptation, and support networks. Recognizing community significance, it views resilience as a blend of agency, wisdom, and networks. The research unveils rural adaptive behaviours, co-occurring stress responses, and network use for health solutions. These insights aim to enhance health advisories and crisis responses, fostering resilience in communities facing escalating climate challenges. The research covered 747 households from nine village segments, examining heat stress adaptation and social support networks. Social Network Analysis revealed internal and external sources of support for heat stress-induced health issues. The study employed matrices and network analysis tools to represent co-occurrence patterns of adaptation strategies and support networks. Findings highlighted collective adaptive behaviour and the role of social connections in combating climatic stress. The study outlines dual interventions to mitigate heat stress impacts: enhancing endogenous community adaptability and optimizing social-institutional networks for external support. Occupational profiling, socio-economic context, and health access can identify vulnerable groups. Perceived impacts can serve as early health crisis indicators, though not always linked to adaptive actions. Diverse adaptive activities co-occur, reflecting collective behaviour, but less central actions require attention. Medical care usage for heat stress remains minimal. Social networks lack local health providers needing community-level provisions. A comprehensive mitigation plan for identified vulnerable communities aims to bridge knowledge gaps, promote equitable healthcare access, and strengthen adaptive capacity through informed interventions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"44 ","pages":"Article 100606"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000238/pdfft?md5=f43e0f7a1f095b2a7aad5814c54569b0&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000238-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140547293","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}