The value of structured expert judgment to help assess climate adaptation

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI:10.1016/j.crm.2025.100692

Alexandre K. Magnan , Jia Li , Adèle Tanguy , Stéphane Hallegatte , Christophe Buffet

{"title":"The value of structured expert judgment to help assess climate adaptation","authors":"Alexandre K. Magnan , Jia Li , Adèle Tanguy , Stéphane Hallegatte , Christophe Buffet","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100692","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While climate change continues to accelerate and associated risks are expected to become more intense and complex than previously anticipated, climate adaptation policies and projects remain short-sighted and single hazard-focused, limited in scale, limited in addressing the root causes of exposure and vulnerability, and poorly monitored. Understanding whether societies are on track to adapt or on a pathway towards higher risks is essential but raises many methodological challenges. Assessment methods based on quantitative indicators have been prominent up to now, but they show limitations especially relating to the difficulty of identifying statistical data that capture the complex nature of adaptation and are relevant across contexts. This Perspective paper discusses the case of structured expert judgment methods to assess adaptation status based on a wider range of information (quantitative and qualitative, published and non-published, etc.), therefore offering complementary, alternative methods to assess progress.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100692"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Climate Risk Management","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096325000063","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

While climate change continues to accelerate and associated risks are expected to become more intense and complex than previously anticipated, climate adaptation policies and projects remain short-sighted and single hazard-focused, limited in scale, limited in addressing the root causes of exposure and vulnerability, and poorly monitored. Understanding whether societies are on track to adapt or on a pathway towards higher risks is essential but raises many methodological challenges. Assessment methods based on quantitative indicators have been prominent up to now, but they show limitations especially relating to the difficulty of identifying statistical data that capture the complex nature of adaptation and are relevant across contexts. This Perspective paper discusses the case of structured expert judgment methods to assess adaptation status based on a wider range of information (quantitative and qualitative, published and non-published, etc.), therefore offering complementary, alternative methods to assess progress.

查看原文本刊更多论文

结构化专家判断在帮助评估气候适应方面的价值

虽然气候变化继续加速，相关风险预计将比先前预期的更加激烈和复杂，但气候适应政策和项目仍然目光短浅，只关注单一的危害，规模有限，在解决暴露和脆弱性的根本原因方面也有限，而且监测不力。了解社会是在适应的轨道上还是在通往更高风险的道路上是至关重要的，但这也带来了许多方法上的挑战。迄今为止，以数量指标为基础的评估方法一直很突出，但它们显示出局限性，特别是在难以确定统计数据方面，这些统计数据反映了适应的复杂性，并与各种情况有关。本文讨论了基于更广泛的信息（定量和定性，已发表和未发表等）评估适应状态的结构化专家判断方法的案例，从而提供了评估进展的补充和替代方法。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Climate Risk Management Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science

CiteScore

8.20

自引率

4.50%

发文量

审稿时长

30 weeks

期刊介绍： Climate Risk Management publishes original scientific contributions, state-of-the-art reviews and reports of practical experience on the use of knowledge and information regarding the consequences of climate variability and climate change in decision and policy making on climate change responses from the near- to long-term. The concept of climate risk management refers to activities and methods that are used by individuals, organizations, and institutions to facilitate climate-resilient decision-making. Its objective is to promote sustainable development by maximizing the beneficial impacts of climate change responses and minimizing negative impacts across the full spectrum of geographies and sectors that are potentially affected by the changing climate.