Journal of Mathematical Biology最新文献_第8页

Exploring the effective strategies for allocating limited resources to minimize cholera outbreaks. 探索分配有限资源以尽量减少霍乱暴发的有效战略。

IF 2.7 4区数学

Journal of Mathematical Biology Pub Date : 2026-05-13 DOI: 10.1007/s00285-026-02408-z

Sudipta Panda, Sujit Halder, Joydev Chattopadhyay

{"title":"Exploring the effective strategies for allocating limited resources to minimize cholera outbreaks.","authors":"Sudipta Panda, Sujit Halder, Joydev Chattopadhyay","doi":"10.1007/s00285-026-02408-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-026-02408-z","url":null,"abstract":"Despite the near-complete elimination of cholera in many developing countries, numerous lower-income countries continue to face recurring epidemics. Although extensive research has been conducted on cholera transmission dynamics and control, a comprehensive approach to managing outbreaks in resource-limited settings remains elusive. This study introduces a cholera epidemic model incorporating a resource allocation strategy to balance efforts between reducing transmission and enhancing recovery rates. The model is validated using weekly cholera data from the resurgence in Haiti (October 2022-March 2023) to estimate key parameters and the control reproduction number <math><mrow><mo>(</mo> <msub><mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn></msub> <mo>)</mo></mrow> </math> . Based on these estimated parameters, the proposed model exhibits rich dynamical behavior, including backward and Hopf bifurcations, highlighting its potential for a multi-wave epidemic pattern. Using a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model and the Gillespie algorithm, we calculate the extinction probability of cholera, comparing it with multitype branching process (MTbp) results, which estimate the analytical form of the probability of cholera extinction and outbreak, showing excellent agreement. Finally, construct a nonlinear programming problem (NLPP) to find the optimal combination of resources to minimize outbreak probability. In solving this NLPP, we find that prioritizing resources to recovery improve interventions is more effective than reducing transmission to minimize the probability of disease outbreak. These insights can guide resource allocation strategies to reduce cholera outbreaks in resource-constrained settings.","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"92 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2026-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147934997","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Numerical analysis & modelling in the life sciences: a topical collection in honor of Ezio Venturino. 数值分析和建模在生命科学：在埃齐奥文图里诺的荣誉专题收集。

IF 2.7 4区数学

Journal of Mathematical Biology Pub Date : 2026-05-13 DOI: 10.1007/s00285-026-02388-0

Iulia Martina Bulai, Roberto Cavoretto, Alessandra De Rossi

引用次数: 0

Mathematical modelling of methane-induced transitions in aquatic ecosystems. 水生生态系统中甲烷诱导过渡的数学模型。

IF 2.7 4区数学

Journal of Mathematical Biology Pub Date : 2026-05-13 DOI: 10.1007/s00285-026-02414-1

Pranali Roy Chowdhury, Tianxu Wang, Keith Tierney, Shohel Ahmed, Hao Wang

{"title":"Mathematical modelling of methane-induced transitions in aquatic ecosystems.","authors":"Pranali Roy Chowdhury, Tianxu Wang, Keith Tierney, Shohel Ahmed, Hao Wang","doi":"10.1007/s00285-026-02414-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-026-02414-1","url":null,"abstract":"Anthropogenic activities have led to increased methane production in lakes and inland water bodies, contributing to atmospheric methane levels. While there is considerable research on methane emissions, their ecological impact, particularly on species interactions, remains underexplored. Unlike organic contaminants, methane does not bioaccumulate in the food web, which makes its effects on species harder to elucidate. Though it serves as an alternative carbon source for plankton, at higher concentrations, it depletes dissolved oxygen levels. Here we develop a methane-plankton-detritus model to investigate the ecological effects of methane in aquatic ecosystems. We perform bifurcation analysis to estimate the thresholds under which methane acts as a food resource or a stressor. Our results show increased abundance of plankton at low to moderate methane concentrations. At elevated methane levels, however, methane acts as a stressor to zooplankton that reduces their abundance, while phytoplankton growth remains unaffected. Prolonged exposure to methane modulates the thermal tolerance of phyto- and zooplankton. To investigate the population dynamics in methane-enriched lakes, we perform multiscale analysis. We show rapid release of methane slows zooplankton growth, leading to long transient characterized by crawl-by regime. It leads to prolonged suppression of zooplankton populations even when methane concentration stabilizes, emphasizing on a long-lasting trophic imbalance. Our bottom-up modelling yields novel insight into how methane release will shape aquatic ecological outcomes and provides a framework for understanding the role of methane in ecosystems under changing environmental conditions.","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"92 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2026-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147935061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Propagation dynamics of reaction-diffusion systems in sugar beet agro-ecosystems. 甜菜农业生态系统中反应扩散系统的繁殖动力学。

IF 2.7 4区数学

Journal of Mathematical Biology Pub Date : 2026-05-12 DOI: 10.1007/s00285-026-02395-1

Guo Lin

{"title":"Propagation dynamics of reaction-diffusion systems in sugar beet agro-ecosystems.","authors":"Guo Lin","doi":"10.1007/s00285-026-02395-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-026-02395-1","url":null,"abstract":"This article investigates the spreading properties of yellows viruses within sugar beet agro-ecosystems using reaction-diffusion systems, with spreading speeds and traveling wave solutions serving as key analytical tools. In these systems, each unknown function corresponds to a distinct ecological variable: infected hosts (i.e., sugar beets), infected vectors, susceptible vectors, and vector predators. In the absence of predators, we analyze the spreading characteristics of infected hosts and infected vectors, with susceptible vectors treated as the native population. The spreading speed of yellows viruses is given, which equals the minimal wave speed of monotonic traveling wave solutions modeling disease spreading and prevalence. When predators are introduced for biological control, the existence and nonexistence of traveling wave solutions starting from the disease-free and predator-free steady state are studied. For the corresponding Cauchy problem, the invasion speed of predators is established. Specifically, this speed is derived under the assumption that vectors are native species, and it remains independent of disease prevalence. Subsequently, we numerically compare the observed viral prevalence under the presence of predators with different expansion capabilities. We then present two distinct scenarios focusing on the spread or extinction of yellows viruses. In the context of virus prevention and control, these results deepen our understanding of the importance of the predation rate, predator mobility, and biting rate.","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"92 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2026-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147876382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Spatiotemporal evolution of a pine wilt disease model integrating infectious disease transmission and predator-prey interactions. 整合传染病传播和捕食者-猎物相互作用的松材萎蔫病模型的时空演化

IF 2.7 4区数学

Journal of Mathematical Biology Pub Date : 2026-05-11 DOI: 10.1007/s00285-026-02406-1

Shuai Zhang, Peng Wu, Shengqiang Liu

{"title":"Spatiotemporal evolution of a pine wilt disease model integrating infectious disease transmission and predator-prey interactions.","authors":"Shuai Zhang, Peng Wu, Shengqiang Liu","doi":"10.1007/s00285-026-02406-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-026-02406-1","url":null,"abstract":"Previous modeling studies on pine wilt disease have largely been confined to either standalone epidemic models or predator-prey models, overlooking the coupling between these two mechanisms within the ecosystem. A coupled model is developed that integrates predator-prey interactions with the transmission mechanism of pine wilt disease, thereby enabling a more accurate representation of the spatiotemporal dynamics of biological control and disease transmission. The theoretical analysis primarily establishes that, under given threshold conditions, several key subsystems are persistent, and further proves the existence of steady states for the full system. Numerical simulations, implemented using COMSOL Multiphysics, successfully reproduced the spatiotemporal evolution of pine wilt disease on a two-dimensional geographical map of Liaoning Province, China. In the absence of predators, the simulated results are consistent with actual observational data, whereas the disease is effectively suppressed when predators are introduced. Based on the optimal control theory for parabolic systems and the results of numerical simulations, this study further systematically analyzes optimal strategy selection for pine wilt disease management: (1) When predators have been introduced, the additional benefit of supplementary human control may be limited; (2) If the goal is ecological effectiveness alone, biological control by predator introduction should be prioritized; (3) According to cost-effectiveness analysis and the decision-maker's willingness-to-pay, biological control is preferred when the cost of predator introduction is below a threshold; otherwise, human control is more economically justified.","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"92 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2026-05-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147870336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Why is it easier to predict the epidemic curve than to reconstruct the underlying contact network? 为什么预测疫情曲线比重建潜在的接触网络更容易？

IF 2.7 4区数学

Journal of Mathematical Biology Pub Date : 2026-05-02 DOI: 10.1007/s00285-026-02401-6

Dániel Keliger, Illés Horváth

引用次数: 0

Unravelling the spatiotemporal dynamics of amyloid- β -induced astrocyte-neuron network model in Alzheimer's disease. 揭示β淀粉样蛋白诱导的阿尔茨海默病星形细胞-神经元网络模型的时空动力学。

IF 2.7 4区数学

Journal of Mathematical Biology Pub Date : 2026-04-29 DOI: 10.1007/s00285-026-02399-x

Debasish Pradhan, Ranjit Kumar Upadhyay

{"title":"<ArticleTitle xmlns:ns0=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\">Unravelling the spatiotemporal dynamics of amyloid- <ns0:math><ns0:mi>β</ns0:mi></ns0:math> -induced astrocyte-neuron network model in Alzheimer's disease.","authors":"Debasish Pradhan, Ranjit Kumar Upadhyay","doi":"10.1007/s00285-026-02399-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-026-02399-x","url":null,"abstract":"Recent research highlights that calcium dysfunction, emerging from impaired neuron-astrocyte interactions plays a crucial role in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease (AD). In our current study, we investigate this through a computational model of bidirectional coupling between a neuron and an astrocyte within a tripartite synapse framework. Individually, neuron is designed to exhibit neuronal firing dynamics, while the astrocyte captures amyloid- <math><mi>β</mi></math> -mediated calcium signaling. In particular, we consider the spatiotemporal version of the model across three scenarios: (i) no diffusion; (ii) diffusion in either neurons or astrocytes; and (iii) diffusion in both. Without diffusion, bifurcation analysis reveals that astrocytic feedback can trigger neuronal firing via a supercritical Andronov-Hopf bifurcation, emphasizing astrocytic regulation of excitability. With diffusion only in neurons, complex Ginzburg-Landau analysis (CGLE) reveals spiral and antispiral wave patterns. When only astrocytic diffusion is present, regular and distorted hexagonal patterns emerge. The third scenario yields Turing-like structures. We further extend the model to a spatial network to explore collective dynamics and synchronization behaviors, where stronger coupling leads to partially synchronized neuronal activity. These findings demonstrate how astrocyte-neuron crosstalk and diffusion-driven instabilities contribute to emergent wave-like activity, shedding light on spatial mechanisms in AD progression.","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"92 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147787703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Threshold dynamics of a HBV infection model with degenerate diffusion, DNA-containing capsids and time-delays in heterogeneous environment. 异质环境中具有退化扩散、含dna衣壳和时滞的HBV感染模型的阈值动力学。

IF 2.7 4区数学

Journal of Mathematical Biology Pub Date : 2026-04-29 DOI: 10.1007/s00285-026-02405-2

Yu Yang, Lan Zou, Cheng-Hsiung Hsu

{"title":"Threshold dynamics of a HBV infection model with degenerate diffusion, DNA-containing capsids and time-delays in heterogeneous environment.","authors":"Yu Yang, Lan Zou, Cheng-Hsiung Hsu","doi":"10.1007/s00285-026-02405-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-026-02405-2","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we consider the global dynamics of a HBV infection model with degenerate diffusion, DNA-containing capsids and time-delays in heterogeneous environment. Since only the free virus equation contains a diffusion term, the model is partially degenerate, which makes that the solution semiflow lacks compactness. In addition, different to early works, the consideration of time-delay effect increases the difficulty in studying the dynamics of the model. To overcome these difficulties, we regard the model as a one-periodic system. Then, apply the method of Kuratowski's measure of non-compactness, we establish the global threshold dynamics of the system, which can be characterized by the value of basic reproduction number <math><msub><mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn></msub> </math> . In addition, we establish the global asymptotic stability of infection-free steady state when <math> <mrow><msub><mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn></msub> <mo>=</mo> <mn>1</mn></mrow> </math> , and find that <math><msub><mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn></msub> </math> is decreasing with respect to the three time delay terms. We further provide some examples to support our theoretical results.","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"92 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147787749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Stability and Self-Organized Patterns in Coupled Ecohydrological-Fire Dynamics: A Model of Vegetation-Rainfall-Bushfire Interactions. 生态水文-火耦合动力学的稳定性和自组织模式：植被-降雨-林火相互作用模型。

IF 2.7 4区数学

Journal of Mathematical Biology Pub Date : 2026-04-29 DOI: 10.1007/s00285-026-02410-5

Serena Dipierro, Enrico Valdinoci

{"title":"Stability and Self-Organized Patterns in Coupled Ecohydrological-Fire Dynamics: A Model of Vegetation-Rainfall-Bushfire Interactions.","authors":"Serena Dipierro, Enrico Valdinoci","doi":"10.1007/s00285-026-02410-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-026-02410-5","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the conditions for the stability and emergence of patterns in a new three-component reaction-diffusion system. The system describes the coexistence and interaction of water reservoirs, vegetation, and bushfire activity in a given ecosystem. We perform a detailed stability analysis to determine the parameter space where an unstable homogeneous equilibrium becomes stable with respect to spatially nonuniform perturbations. We also use diffusion to generate traveling trains in the form of periodic orbits of the linearized system. These orbits are remnants of an unstable equilibrium in the absence of diffusion and arise from a nonsingular eigenvalue crossing of the imaginary axis, while a third eigenvalue remains real and negative, thereby ensuring linear stability for monocromatic waves. These phenomena differ from \"classical\" Turing and Hopf bifurcations, as the model does not involve distinct \"activators\" and \"inhibitors\", and the effects observed are not the byproduct of diffusion with necessarily differing speeds. Also, differently from the classical Turing pattern, the role of diffusion in this context is to stabilize, rather than destabilize, homogeneous equilibria. We also consider the case of plant competition, showing a suitable form of Turing instability for slow-frequency oscillations in a small rainfall regime.","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"92 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147787687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

On learning functions over biological sequence space: relating Gaussian process priors, regularization, and gauge fixing. 生物序列空间上的学习函数：高斯过程先验、正则化和规范固定。

IF 2.7 4区数学

Journal of Mathematical Biology Pub Date : 2026-04-29 DOI: 10.1007/s00285-026-02398-y

Samantha Petti, Carlos Martí-Gómez, Justin B Kinney, Juannan Zhou, David M McCandlish

{"title":"On learning functions over biological sequence space: relating Gaussian process priors, regularization, and gauge fixing.","authors":"Samantha Petti, Carlos Martí-Gómez, Justin B Kinney, Juannan Zhou, David M McCandlish","doi":"10.1007/s00285-026-02398-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-026-02398-y","url":null,"abstract":"Mappings from biological sequences (DNA, RNA, protein) to quantitative measures of sequence functionality play an important role in contemporary biology. We are interested in the related tasks of (i) inferring predictive sequence-to-function maps and (ii) decomposing sequence-function maps to elucidate the contributions of individual subsequences. Because each sequence-function map can be written as a weighted sum over subsequences in multiple ways, meaningfully interpreting these weights requires \"gauge-fixing,\" i.e., defining a unique representation for each map. Recent work has established that most existing gauge-fixed representations arise as the unique solutions to <math><msub><mi>L</mi> <mn>2</mn></msub> </math> -regularized regression in an overparameterized \"weight space\" where the choice of regularizer defines the gauge. Here, we establish the relationship between regularized regression in overparameterized weight space and Gaussian process approaches that operate in \"function space,\" i.e. the space of all real-valued functions on a finite set of sequences. We disentangle how weight space regularizers both impose an implicit prior on the learned function and restrict the optimal weights to a particular gauge. We show how to construct regularizers that correspond to arbitrary explicit Gaussian process priors combined with a wide variety of gauges and characterize the implicit function space priors associated with the most common weight space regularizers. Finally, we derive the posterior distribution of a broad class of sequence-to-function statistics, including gauge-fixed weights and multiple systems for expressing higher-order epistatic coefficients. We show that such distributions can be efficiently computed for product-kernel priors using a kernel trick.","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"92 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13128692/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147787701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0