{"title":"Why is it easier to predict the epidemic curve than to reconstruct the underlying contact network?","authors":"Dániel Keliger, Illés Horváth","doi":"10.1007/s00285-026-02401-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-026-02401-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We study the deterministic Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic model on weighted graphs. van Mieghem et al. have shown that it is possible to learn an estimated network from a finite time sample of the trajectories of the dynamics that in turn can give an accurate prediction beyond the sample time range, even though the estimated network might be qualitatively far from the ground truth. We give a mathematically rigorous derivation for this phenomenon, notably that for large networks, prediction of the epidemic curves is robust, while reconstructing the underlying network is ill-conditioned. Furthermore, we also provide an explicit formula for the underlying network when reconstruction is possible. At the heart of the explanation, we rely on Szemerédi's weak regularity lemma.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"92 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13135567/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147823041","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"<ArticleTitle xmlns:ns0=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\">Unravelling the spatiotemporal dynamics of amyloid- <ns0:math><ns0:mi>β</ns0:mi></ns0:math> -induced astrocyte-neuron network model in Alzheimer's disease.","authors":"Debasish Pradhan, Ranjit Kumar Upadhyay","doi":"10.1007/s00285-026-02399-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-026-02399-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Recent research highlights that calcium dysfunction, emerging from impaired neuron-astrocyte interactions plays a crucial role in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease (AD). In our current study, we investigate this through a computational model of bidirectional coupling between a neuron and an astrocyte within a tripartite synapse framework. Individually, neuron is designed to exhibit neuronal firing dynamics, while the astrocyte captures amyloid- <math><mi>β</mi></math> -mediated calcium signaling. In particular, we consider the spatiotemporal version of the model across three scenarios: (i) no diffusion; (ii) diffusion in either neurons or astrocytes; and (iii) diffusion in both. Without diffusion, bifurcation analysis reveals that astrocytic feedback can trigger neuronal firing via a supercritical Andronov-Hopf bifurcation, emphasizing astrocytic regulation of excitability. With diffusion only in neurons, complex Ginzburg-Landau analysis (CGLE) reveals spiral and antispiral wave patterns. When only astrocytic diffusion is present, regular and distorted hexagonal patterns emerge. The third scenario yields Turing-like structures. We further extend the model to a spatial network to explore collective dynamics and synchronization behaviors, where stronger coupling leads to partially synchronized neuronal activity. These findings demonstrate how astrocyte-neuron crosstalk and diffusion-driven instabilities contribute to emergent wave-like activity, shedding light on spatial mechanisms in AD progression.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"92 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147787703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Threshold dynamics of a HBV infection model with degenerate diffusion, DNA-containing capsids and time-delays in heterogeneous environment.","authors":"Yu Yang, Lan Zou, Cheng-Hsiung Hsu","doi":"10.1007/s00285-026-02405-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-026-02405-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this paper, we consider the global dynamics of a HBV infection model with degenerate diffusion, DNA-containing capsids and time-delays in heterogeneous environment. Since only the free virus equation contains a diffusion term, the model is partially degenerate, which makes that the solution semiflow lacks compactness. In addition, different to early works, the consideration of time-delay effect increases the difficulty in studying the dynamics of the model. To overcome these difficulties, we regard the model as a one-periodic system. Then, apply the method of Kuratowski's measure of non-compactness, we establish the global threshold dynamics of the system, which can be characterized by the value of basic reproduction number <math><msub><mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn></msub> </math> . In addition, we establish the global asymptotic stability of infection-free steady state when <math> <mrow><msub><mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn></msub> <mo>=</mo> <mn>1</mn></mrow> </math> , and find that <math><msub><mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn></msub> </math> is decreasing with respect to the three time delay terms. We further provide some examples to support our theoretical results.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"92 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147787749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Stability and Self-Organized Patterns in Coupled Ecohydrological-Fire Dynamics: A Model of Vegetation-Rainfall-Bushfire Interactions.","authors":"Serena Dipierro, Enrico Valdinoci","doi":"10.1007/s00285-026-02410-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-026-02410-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This paper investigates the conditions for the stability and emergence of patterns in a new three-component reaction-diffusion system. The system describes the coexistence and interaction of water reservoirs, vegetation, and bushfire activity in a given ecosystem. We perform a detailed stability analysis to determine the parameter space where an unstable homogeneous equilibrium becomes stable with respect to spatially nonuniform perturbations. We also use diffusion to generate traveling trains in the form of periodic orbits of the linearized system. These orbits are remnants of an unstable equilibrium in the absence of diffusion and arise from a nonsingular eigenvalue crossing of the imaginary axis, while a third eigenvalue remains real and negative, thereby ensuring linear stability for monocromatic waves. These phenomena differ from \"classical\" Turing and Hopf bifurcations, as the model does not involve distinct \"activators\" and \"inhibitors\", and the effects observed are not the byproduct of diffusion with necessarily differing speeds. Also, differently from the classical Turing pattern, the role of diffusion in this context is to stabilize, rather than destabilize, homogeneous equilibria. We also consider the case of plant competition, showing a suitable form of Turing instability for slow-frequency oscillations in a small rainfall regime.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"92 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147787687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Samantha Petti, Carlos Martí-Gómez, Justin B Kinney, Juannan Zhou, David M McCandlish
{"title":"On learning functions over biological sequence space: relating Gaussian process priors, regularization, and gauge fixing.","authors":"Samantha Petti, Carlos Martí-Gómez, Justin B Kinney, Juannan Zhou, David M McCandlish","doi":"10.1007/s00285-026-02398-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-026-02398-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Mappings from biological sequences (DNA, RNA, protein) to quantitative measures of sequence functionality play an important role in contemporary biology. We are interested in the related tasks of (i) inferring predictive sequence-to-function maps and (ii) decomposing sequence-function maps to elucidate the contributions of individual subsequences. Because each sequence-function map can be written as a weighted sum over subsequences in multiple ways, meaningfully interpreting these weights requires \"gauge-fixing,\" i.e., defining a unique representation for each map. Recent work has established that most existing gauge-fixed representations arise as the unique solutions to <math><msub><mi>L</mi> <mn>2</mn></msub> </math> -regularized regression in an overparameterized \"weight space\" where the choice of regularizer defines the gauge. Here, we establish the relationship between regularized regression in overparameterized weight space and Gaussian process approaches that operate in \"function space,\" i.e. the space of all real-valued functions on a finite set of sequences. We disentangle how weight space regularizers both impose an implicit prior on the learned function and restrict the optimal weights to a particular gauge. We show how to construct regularizers that correspond to arbitrary explicit Gaussian process priors combined with a wide variety of gauges and characterize the implicit function space priors associated with the most common weight space regularizers. Finally, we derive the posterior distribution of a broad class of sequence-to-function statistics, including gauge-fixed weights and multiple systems for expressing higher-order epistatic coefficients. We show that such distributions can be efficiently computed for product-kernel priors using a kernel trick.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"92 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13128692/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147787701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Multitype SIR epidemics among a population partitioned into households with proportionate global mixing.","authors":"Frank Ball, Liam Critcher","doi":"10.1007/s00285-026-02359-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-026-02359-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>A stochastic model for an SIR epidemic among a population of households that contains J types of individuals is considered. Infectives make two kinds of contacts: local contacts with individuals in their own household and global contacts with individuals from the entire population. Global mixing is proportionate. The behaviour of the model as the population size tends to infinity is analysed. An approximating branching process for the early stages of an epidemic is used to determine several different reproduction numbers and the early exponential growth rate. The means of certain final outcome quantities of an epidemic which takes off are determined, together with an associated multivariate central limit theorem. The assumption of proportionate global mixing leads to considerable simplification in both the calculation and proof of asymptotic properties, since key underlying processes are one-dimensional rather than J-dimensional.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"92 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13111495/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147787696","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Gangadhara Boregowda, Omar Sharif, Daniel Gutierrez Iii, Allegra Simmons, Laurent Pujo-Menjouet, Tamer Oraby, Michael R Lindstrom
{"title":"Theory and simulations of delayed stochastic and deterministic models of prion diseases.","authors":"Gangadhara Boregowda, Omar Sharif, Daniel Gutierrez Iii, Allegra Simmons, Laurent Pujo-Menjouet, Tamer Oraby, Michael R Lindstrom","doi":"10.1007/s00285-026-02390-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-026-02390-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Neurodegenerative diseases (NDs), such as Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, and prion diseases, are characterized by the dynamical spread of toxic proteins through the brain. In prion diseases, cellular prion protein ( <math><msup><mtext>PrP</mtext> <mtext>C</mtext></msup> </math> ), produced by neurons, misfolds into a toxic form, known as scrapie prion protein ( <math><msup><mtext>PrP</mtext> <mtext>Sc</mtext></msup> </math> ). <math><msup><mtext>PrP</mtext> <mtext>Sc</mtext></msup> </math> induces neuronal stress which ultimately leads to cell death. In this paper, we develop mathematical models for the progression of prion diseases, incorporating a cellular defense mechanism that introduces a delay term affecting protein translation and a volatility term accounting for unaccounted biological factors influencing the system. We also extend the model to capture the spatial spread of toxic proteins over the brain connectome. Our first objective is to establish the existence and uniqueness of a global positive solution to the prion disease models. Afterwards, we analyze the asymptotic behavior of the models by identifying regimes of persistence and extinction of toxic proteins. For the deterministic delayed systems, we perform a stability analysis for the persistence and demonstrate that the system undergoes a Hopf bifurcation. We also study the intensity of fluctuations of the equilibrium state of the stochastic model. Additionally, we present numerical simulations to illustrate the model dynamics using biologically relevant parameters.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"92 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13106245/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147787699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Propagation dynamics for neural field equations in time-space periodic media.","authors":"Ming-Zhen Xin, Wan-Tong Li, Bin-Guo Wang","doi":"10.1007/s00285-026-02403-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-026-02403-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Neural field equations model population dynamics of large-scale networks of neurons. To investigate multiple effects of spatiotemporal heterogeneity on wave propagation, we propose a neural field equation with monostable nonlinearity in time-space periodic media. We first establish the existence of a positive, globally attractive, time-space periodic solution under appropriate conditions. For exponentially bounded kernels, we determine the spreading speed and demonstrate its equivalence to the minimal speed of time-space periodic traveling wave solutions. We also provide a variational characterization of this spreading speed via principal eigenvalues. Furthermore, employing the monotone iteration method and partial metric theory, we obtain an attractive traveling wave solution at noncritical speeds. In contrast, for exponentially unbounded kernels, we find the occurrence of accelerated spreading. Leveraging properties of subexponential kernels, we precisely determine the rate of acceleration. Our results comprehensively address the problem posed by Fang and Faye (Math. Models Methods Appl. Sci., 2016) in the absence of synaptic delay.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"92 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147787744","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"First-order endotactic reaction networks.","authors":"Chuang Xu","doi":"10.1007/s00285-026-02378-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00285-026-02378-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Reaction networks are a general framework widely used in modeling diverse phenomena in different science disciplines. The dynamical process of a reaction network endowed with mass-action kinetics is a mass-action system which is an ODE defined by a directed graph, the so-called \"reaction graph\". Endotacticity is a graph property used to study persistence and permanence of mass-action systems. In this paper, we provide a detailed characterization of first-order endotactic reaction graphs. Besides, we provide a sufficient condition for endotacticity of reaction networks which are not necessarily of first-order. Such a characterization of a first-order endotactic reaction graph yields the spectral property of the adjacency matrix of the reaction graph. As a consequence, we prove that every first-order endotactic mass-action system as a linear ODE has a weakly reversible deficiency zero realization, and has a unique equilibrium which is exponentially globally asymptotically stable (and is positive) in each (positive) stoichiometric compatibility class. Using a stability result for asymptotically autonomous differential equations, examples are constructed to illustrate that the global stability results can be extended to mass-action systems of higher-order reaction networks modeled by nonlinear ODEs, which are not necessarily endotactic. Different from the classical approaches for proving global asymptotic stability, the proof does not rely on the construction of a Lyapunov function. This paper may serve as a starting point of characterizing higher-order endotactic reaction graphs and studying global stability of mass-action systems in general.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"92 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147729955","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Spatiotemporal dynamics of HIV in the Brain: perspective of mathematical modeling for its control via antiretroviral therapy.","authors":"Naveen K Vaidya, Feng-Bin Wang","doi":"10.1007/s00285-026-02382-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-026-02382-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The brain, as a reservoir of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), has received tremendous attention due to the association with the brain's infection with HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders (HAND). Along with the blood-brain barrier (BBB), heterogeneity across the various regions inside the brain makes HIV infection particularly complex to identify the ideal treatment for controlling HIV in the brain. In this study, we developed a mathematical model to describe the spatiotemporal dynamics of HIV infection in three essential regions of the brain: the prefrontal cortex (PF), the choroid plexus (CP), and the primary visual cortex (V1). We use our model to study the impact of drug pharmacodynamics and the CPE score (a permeability index for drugs into the brain) on viral control in the brain. The infection invasion threshold, which we theoretically established as the determinant of infection avoidance or virus persistence, enables us to select drugs for treatment protocols with pharmacodynamic properties (dose-response curve slope, dose, half-life, dose interval, CPE score) that prevent and control HIV infection in the brain. Our novel model and related theoretical and numerical results provide further insights into the impact of antiretroviral therapy on the spatiotemporal dynamics of HIV infection in the brain.</p>","PeriodicalId":50148,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Biology","volume":"92 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147718850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}