Journal of Flood Risk Management最新文献

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Development of Flash Flood Forecasting System for Small and Medium-Sized Rivers 中小河流山洪预报系统的开发
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-03-25 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.70026
Koji Ikeuchi, Daiki Kakinuma, Yosuke Nakamura, Shingo Numata, Takafumi Mochizuki, Keijiro Kubota, Masaki Yasukawa, Toshihiro Nemoto, Toshio Koike
{"title":"Development of Flash Flood Forecasting System for Small and Medium-Sized Rivers","authors":"Koji Ikeuchi,&nbsp;Daiki Kakinuma,&nbsp;Yosuke Nakamura,&nbsp;Shingo Numata,&nbsp;Takafumi Mochizuki,&nbsp;Keijiro Kubota,&nbsp;Masaki Yasukawa,&nbsp;Toshihiro Nemoto,&nbsp;Toshio Koike","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70026","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Owing to the increased frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall events caused by climate change, peak flood flows are expected to increase substantially in small and medium-sized rivers (SMRs) with a short time of concentration for a catchment (Tc). Accurate flood forecasts and corresponding evacuation are effective in reducing the number of casualties caused by flash floods in SMRs. Currently, flood forecasting using observed rainfall in SMRs has a short lead time, which often delays the issuance of evacuation orders by local governments. Moreover, the large number of SMRs necessitates a system that can be widely used by local governments for disaster response tasks, such as issuing evacuation orders. Therefore, we developed a system that can accurately predict when river water levels will reach the Flood Risk Level (FRL). This forecasting approach uses the rainfall–runoff–inundation (RRI) model and the H–Q equation. The parameters in the RRI model were optimized using the Shuffled Complex Evolution algorithm developed at the University of Arizona (SCE-UA) to reduce the required time and effort. The system uses real-time water level observation data to sequentially modify the basin state quantities in the RRI model using the particle filter method to improve the water level forecast accuracy. The system was implemented in 200 rivers in Japan with diverse rainfall and geological characteristics and was tested during the flood season. Accuracy verification was conducted when the forecasted water levels were operated within a range of ± 50 cm. The results showed that 75% of the flood events could be forecasted more than 2 h before reaching the FRLs. Furthermore, 89% of the flood events could be predicted with a lead time (LT; time that water levels reach the FRL—time of first forecast) of 2 h or more or a lead time equal to the Tc or more. These findings show that this system has the potential to enhance and strengthen flood warning and evacuation systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70026","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143690137","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Insights From Homeowners on the Impact of Flood Risk Communication on Adaptive Behavior at the Property Level From the 2021 Flood Event in Germany 从2021年德国洪水事件看房主对洪水风险沟通对财产层面适应行为的影响
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-03-24 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.70038
Helene Meyer, Georg Johann
{"title":"Insights From Homeowners on the Impact of Flood Risk Communication on Adaptive Behavior at the Property Level From the 2021 Flood Event in Germany","authors":"Helene Meyer,&nbsp;Georg Johann","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70038","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The study provides insights into the impact of risk communication on adaptation behavior before and after the 2021 flood in western Germany. The aim is to ascertain how the flood influenced homeowners' adaptive behavior. The Protection Motivation Theory is employed to identify the factors that influence adaptive behavior and needs in response to flooding. To facilitate effective risk communication, we examine the FLOODLABEL, an expert-oriented communication tool. The findings contribute to the academic debate by providing insights into the impact of risk communication on adaptation behavior. The literature discusses the discrepancy between the information deemed crucial by experts and the information citizens require to make informed decisions. This discrepancy has prompted the need to investigate how an event of this magnitude has resulted in adaptive behavior and which role risk communication plays in the implementation of measures. To this end, a quantitative survey was conducted with 773 participating homeowners. The findings revealed information gaps and ineffective risk communication strategies. This study highlights the need to expand risk communication from a one-way, knowledge-based format to a more interactive and two-way process. The event caused a shift in homeowners' perceived risk; yet, this did not result in a discernible change in adaptive behavior.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70038","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessing Surface Water Flood Mitigation Strategies: A Global Comparative Review 评估地表水洪水缓解策略:全球比较回顾
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-03-24 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.70049
Funmilayo Ebun Rotimi, Roohollah Kalatehjari, Taofeeq Durojaye Moshood, Zina Abu Ali
{"title":"Assessing Surface Water Flood Mitigation Strategies: A Global Comparative Review","authors":"Funmilayo Ebun Rotimi,&nbsp;Roohollah Kalatehjari,&nbsp;Taofeeq Durojaye Moshood,&nbsp;Zina Abu Ali","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70049","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The discourse on climate change has brought to the fore the pressing need for improved flood management strategies. Recent trends indicate a surge in flooding incidents in residential areas, which can potentially disrupt socio-economic activities and result in loss of lives. This study conducts a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) to comprehensively assess and compare various flood mitigation strategies employed in residential zoning practices globally. Residential zoning in New Zealand means a designated area of land specifically set aside for housing development, with rules and regulations governing the density and type of dwellings that can be built there to maintain a suitable living environment for residents. Research articles published between 2001 and 2024 focused on flood reduction strategies were collected, synthesised, and analysed. A predefined review protocol guided this approach, involving searches in widely used electronic databases. Ninety-three articles were ultimately included in the review. The findings highlight several key areas, including the impact of strategies on flood susceptibility, the effectiveness of rainwater harvesting systems and green infrastructure in flood management, and the importance of sustainable urban development and ecological preservation. Proposed strategies, such as neighbourhood and site planning, regional planning, stormwater management, green roofs, permeable pavements, and regulatory measures, offer valuable pathways for safeguarding water resources in urban planning efforts. The study advances knowledge in urban planning, environmental sustainability, and residential zoning practices. It also provides an overview of current approaches for mitigating flooding and identifies research gaps for future studies.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70049","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689842","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evaluating the Influence of Topographic and Process Representation on Runoff and River Flow in Small-Valley Scenarios Using a Coupled Rainfall–Runoff–Inundation and River-Flow Model 基于降雨-径流-淹没-河流流量耦合模型的小河谷地形和过程表征对径流和河流流量的影响
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-03-24 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.70034
Takehiko Ito, Jin Kashiwada, Yasuo Nihei
{"title":"Evaluating the Influence of Topographic and Process Representation on Runoff and River Flow in Small-Valley Scenarios Using a Coupled Rainfall–Runoff–Inundation and River-Flow Model","authors":"Takehiko Ito,&nbsp;Jin Kashiwada,&nbsp;Yasuo Nihei","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70034","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In Chiba Prefecture, Japan, there are numerous yatsu valleys topographies that have local elevation differences that greatly affect the rainfall-runoff process. In this study, we aimed to explore the impact of these topographic features on runoff and river flow. In addition, we also evaluate the effects of unsteady and advection terms in the equation of motion on river flow simulation, which are sometimes omitted for reasons such as improving computational efficiency. We developed a coupled rainfall–runoff–inundation and river-flow (RRI-RF) model, which combines a hydrological model and a hydraulic model, and applied it to the Ichinomiya River basin. Our findings revealed that the flow discharge is calculated to be lower in the simulation using coarser grid resolution in which the elevation differences due to yatsu valleys are smoothed. Moreover, the advection term has a significant influence on the river flow, particularly in the RRI-RF model with lateral inflow at multiple locations. Therefore, inputting elevation data of high resolution and the calculation of the full equation of motion is essential for precisely assessing river water level and discharge.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70034","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Deep Learning Model for Real-Time Flood Forecasting in Fast-Flowing Watershed 快速流域洪水实时预报的深度学习模型
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-03-20 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.70036
Fan Wang, Jie Mu, Cheng Zhang, Weiqi Wang, Wuxia Bi, Wenqing Lin, Dawei Zhang
{"title":"Deep Learning Model for Real-Time Flood Forecasting in Fast-Flowing Watershed","authors":"Fan Wang,&nbsp;Jie Mu,&nbsp;Cheng Zhang,&nbsp;Weiqi Wang,&nbsp;Wuxia Bi,&nbsp;Wenqing Lin,&nbsp;Dawei Zhang","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70036","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The fast-flowing watershed is characterized by rapid runoff and confluence, posing challenges for accurate flood prediction. We introduce three flood forecasting model structures, namely GRU-ED, LSTM-FED, and LSTM-DSA to address this issue. Through application research in three representative watersheds, we found that: First, as input information attenuates, the predictive ability of the models may decline with an extended lead time. The incorporation of a feedback mechanism effectively addresses this issue, resulting in an average 5% improvement in Nash efficiency and a significant 26.4% reduction in the interquartile range of relative peak error. Second, the performance of the model is influenced by various factors, including the watershed characteristics, sample size, and temporal resolution. Further investigation is required to determine the extent of their influence. The attention mechanism dynamically assigns weights to input data, significantly improving model performance, especially for larger catchments. This leads to an average increase in Nash efficiency of approximately 7.86% and a reduction in the interquartile range of relative peak error by about 30.7%. Finally, the proposed models demonstrate a high level of accuracy in flood forecasting within a specific lead time, offering an innovative deep learning-based solution to the problem of fast-flowing watershed flood forecasting.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70036","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessment of Rainfall Forecasts and Flood Risk in a Coastal Urban Catchment Considering Different Urban Canopy Scenarios 考虑到不同的城市树冠方案,评估沿海城市集水区的降雨预测和洪水风险
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-03-18 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.70028
Mousumi Ghosh, Supantha Paul, Subimal Ghosh, Subhankar Karmakar
{"title":"Assessment of Rainfall Forecasts and Flood Risk in a Coastal Urban Catchment Considering Different Urban Canopy Scenarios","authors":"Mousumi Ghosh,&nbsp;Supantha Paul,&nbsp;Subimal Ghosh,&nbsp;Subhankar Karmakar","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70028","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change, urbanization, and anthropogenic activities have intensified rainfall and urban flooding, especially along coastlines. The high spatiotemporal variability and erratic pattern of rainfall highlight the incompetency of independent application of statistical forecasting techniques, especially over the tropics, and demand the incorporation of physics-based numerical weather prediction models along with urban feedback for improved forecasting. The current study utilizes a physics-based numerical weather prediction model, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, for rainfall forecasting, provided as an input to a 2-way coupled hydrodynamic flood modeling framework, considering streamflow, overland flow, and tidal impact. The influence of three urban canopy scenarios, i.e., not coupled, coupled with a single layer, and multiple layer urban canopy model, is assessed over rainfall, and subsequently the flood inundation and risk pattern, by utilizing this framework. Comparisons have been made between flood maps developed for three scenarios using WRF forecasted rainfall and maps developed using observed rainfall data. An investigation has been conducted into the extent to which the scenarios can replicate the observed pattern and extent of flooding for the comprehensive flood forecasting network. This study signifies that considering urban signatures with other meteorological parameters for rainfall forecasting is highly essential to improve the accuracy of flood risk forecasts.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70028","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143638830","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatial Analysis of Disadvantaged Population: A Case Study of Flood Exposure in the Itapocu River Basin, Brazil 弱势群体的空间分析——以巴西itapou河流域洪水暴露为例
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-03-14 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.70031
Rafael Silva Araújo, Miho Ohara, Mamoru Miyamoto, Kuniyoshi Takeuchi
{"title":"Spatial Analysis of Disadvantaged Population: A Case Study of Flood Exposure in the Itapocu River Basin, Brazil","authors":"Rafael Silva Araújo,&nbsp;Miho Ohara,&nbsp;Mamoru Miyamoto,&nbsp;Kuniyoshi Takeuchi","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70031","url":null,"abstract":"<p>People's vulnerability to disasters depends largely on their social and physical aspects, such as economic disadvantages and mobility constraints related to age. Those characteristics will influence how individuals experience the disaster and recover. Thus, assessing the vulnerable population's location and exposure to hazards such as floods is important for designing disaster risk reduction policies. This study conducts such an analysis considering five disadvantage dimensions: age, gender, race, socioeconomic status, and housing spatially distributed in cell grids, which were compiled into a disadvantage index (DI). The DI is further overlayed with the population density (DI*pop.dens.). From the derived DI*pop.dens. map, priority areas for flood management budget allocation can be extracted. The methodology is applied to the Itapocu River Basin (IRB), in southern Brazil, as a case study and compared with the flood inundation area estimated by a hydrological simulation. The places that could be regarded as priority areas for future public policy were classified into high, medium, and low-priority areas, considering higher exposure of the disadvantaged population, higher flood depth, and higher flood frequency. In the IRB, there are priority areas near the main urban areas. Thus, flood control budgets are suggested to be allocated there to protect the vulnerable population.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70031","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143622450","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Looking Back and Looking Forward (Again) 回顾与展望(再次)
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-03-14 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.70032
Paul Samuels
{"title":"Looking Back and Looking Forward (Again)","authors":"Paul Samuels","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70032","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;For this editorial, journal colleagues suggested that I should reflect on my time with the Journal of Flood Risk Management, as my role as Editor in Chief of the Journal has now passed to Nigel Wright and David Proverbs.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I will start over 20 years ago by recalling that, as project Coordinator, at the first project team meeting of the EU funded FLOODsite&lt;sup&gt;1&lt;/sup&gt; research consortium in 2004, I outlined my understanding that flood risk and its management is an entirely human problem. I wanted to emphasise to our team of European researchers who were drawn from many disciplines and backgrounds that the project was not to focus on my own area of expertise (computational modelling) but was to be fully interdisciplinary. I argued that flooding of land is a natural process whether it arises from rainfall, rivers or the sea. Risk, however, is human concept and flood risk arises when the natural process of inundation conflict with people, possessions and property in the path of water. Put simply, ‘no people then no risk!’&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;A critical challenge we acknowledged at the outset of the FLOODsite research was that there was a lack of a common understanding of the language used in flood risk management (Gouldby et al. &lt;span&gt;2009&lt;/span&gt;). Understanding of the same English word (e.g., vulnerability or risk) varied across the research disciplines involved and between researchers, practitioners, and the public. In addition, it was clear that colleagues from different national cultures often used English words slightly differently, particularly those who had learned English as a second language. We also recognized that approaches and priorities for flood risk management vary significantly depending upon national circumstances. When reading papers in the Journal of Flood Risk Management, it is important to recognize that there remains some difference in the usage of language; as editors we have not enforced standardised language.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;My involvement with the Journal began during the course of the FLOODsite project; in the summer of 2006, I met representatives of Blackwell&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; during a series of meetings they held to discuss the need for an interdisciplinary journal on flooding. I recall that, at that time, I was concerned with the proliferation of peer-reviewed journals in general, leading to fragmentation of knowledge dissemination and possibly to poor standards of review and quality. Hence, I expressed that my preference was for encouraging publication in existing journals rather than founding another.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Naturally, I am pleased now that CIWEM and the publishers did not follow the route I suggested but went ahead with establishing the Journal of Flood Risk Management (JFRM) under the editorship of David Balmforth. An important difference from many other journals is that JFRM has always sought to publish papers derived from advances in flood risk management practice, rather than concentrating solely upon academic research.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The first ","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70032","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143622451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Artificial Neural Networks for Flood Prediction in Current and CMIP6 Climate Change Scenarios 当前和CMIP6气候变化情景下洪水预测的人工神经网络
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-03-12 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.70029
Abderraman R. Amorim Brandão, Dimaghi Schwamback, Frederico C. M. de Menezes Filho, Paulo T. S. Oliveira, Maria Clara Fava
{"title":"Artificial Neural Networks for Flood Prediction in Current and CMIP6 Climate Change Scenarios","authors":"Abderraman R. Amorim Brandão,&nbsp;Dimaghi Schwamback,&nbsp;Frederico C. M. de Menezes Filho,&nbsp;Paulo T. S. Oliveira,&nbsp;Maria Clara Fava","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70029","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Researchers have widely applied discharge simulation using artificial neural networks (ANNs) and have gained prominence in water resources. Morphological features, watershed urbanization, and climate change influence hydrological variables. Thus, data-driven models need to be able to identify the hydrological relationships without explicitly stating the physical processes. The main objectives of this work were (i) to evaluate an ANN Multilayer Perceptron for flood forecasting in an urban basin and its efficiency for several lead times; (ii) to evaluate discharge variation considering climate change scenarios. The study applied the methodology in a basin occupied by the Cerrado biome, with its intermediate outlet in an urban area that suffers from recurrent floods. The selection of climate change models followed from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 scenarios Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for two futures: 2021–2050 and 2071–2100, with the period of 1976–2019 as reference. The model obtained satisfactory results for the discharge prediction at the current time and for a horizon of up to 4 days. However, forecasts for longer lead times led to metrics deterioration. Furthermore, future projections suggest decreased discharges, more extreme events, and increased short return-period floods. The developed model is valuable for short-term forecasting and water resources management in the face of changing climates.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70029","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143595625","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Measuring the Degree of ‘Fit’ Within Social-Ecological Systems to Support Local Flood Risk Decision-Making 衡量社会生态系统的“契合度”以支持地方洪水风险决策
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-03-12 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.70006
Imogen Hobbs, Valentin Lucet, Jennifer M. Holzer, Julia Baird, Gordon M. Hickey
{"title":"Measuring the Degree of ‘Fit’ Within Social-Ecological Systems to Support Local Flood Risk Decision-Making","authors":"Imogen Hobbs,&nbsp;Valentin Lucet,&nbsp;Jennifer M. Holzer,&nbsp;Julia Baird,&nbsp;Gordon M. Hickey","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70006","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Effective social-ecological fit is considered essential for properly managing social-ecological systems. Despite this importance, the concept of social-ecological fit lacks the following: clarity in scope and definition, a practical quantitative method to assess effectiveness, and methods capable of equally assessing the social and ecological factors within the system being managed. To address these knowledge gaps, we reviewed how social-ecological fit has been conceptualised in the literature and then tested the use of Bayesian Belief networks and analysis to quantitatively assess “fit” using the case of flooding in the North Onslow saltmarsh region of Truro, Nova Scotia. The objective of this study was to assess which decision-making choices would most likely reduce flood risk, and therefore achieve the best ‘fit’. Drawing from a combination of existing literature and local expert opinion, we identified the relevant factors influencing flood risk in the region, their relationship to each other and their combined relationship to local flood risk. Ice jam frequency, high tide frequency and dyke maintenance were found to have the most influence. The results of this study can be used to inform local flood-risk-related decision-making in Truro and act as a model for quantitatively assessing social-ecological fit in other risk management settings.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70006","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143595624","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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