Journal of Flood Risk Management最新文献

{"title":"An Assessment of the Impact of a Diverse Geological Substrate on Potentially Toxic Elements (PTEs) Content and Origin in Soil and Sediment in Flood Conditions Using Different Receptor Models","authors":"Dragan Čakmak,&nbsp;Veljko Perović,&nbsp;Dragana Pavlović,&nbsp;Svetlana Antić-Mladenović,&nbsp;Marija Matić,&nbsp;Miroslava Mitrović,&nbsp;Pavle Pavlović","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70019","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The aim of this study is to determine the level and source of pollution by potentially toxic elements (PTEs) due to torrential floods in the catchment area of the Drina River under complex geological conditions. The degree of soil and sediment pollution by PTEs was estimated by calculating the Pollution Index (PI) and the Geo-accumulation index (Igeo). Sources of PTEs were determined using Principal component analysis (PCA) for soil and sediment and the Positive Matrix Factorisation (PMF) model for sediment. To fully include the spatial component when determining the source of PTEs, Bivariate Local Moran's I analysis was also applied. By comparing the applied methods, it was determined that PCA is suitable for determining the sources of PTEs in soil and for investigating the sedimentation process in sediment, while the PMF model is more suitable for determining the sources of PTEs in sediment. It was also determined that when the geological substrate is rich and after high-intensity flooding, there is an increase in As, Cd, Co, Cu and Fe content in sediment compared with soil. Arsenic was partially impacted by anthropogenic factors, with Igeo values for soil (16.21%) and sediment (21.76%) at the polluted level.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70019","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143475751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Correction to “Storm Surge Barrier Performance—The Effect of Barrier Failures on Extreme Water Level Frequencies”","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70024","url":null,"abstract":"<p>\u0000 <span>Mooyaart, L. F.</span>, <span>Bakker, A. M. R.</span>, <span>Bogaard, J. A.</span>, <span>Jorissen, R. E.</span>, <span>Rijcken, T.</span>, &amp; <span>Jonkman, S. N.</span> (<span>2025</span>). <span>Storm Surge Barrier Performance—The Effect of Barrier Failures on Extreme Water Level Frequencies</span>. <i>Journal of Flood Risk Management</i>, <span>18</span>(<span>1</span>), e13048. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.13048\u0000 </p><p>We apologize for this error.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70024","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143475752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatial Assessment of Territorial Resilience to Floods Using Comprehensive Indicators: Application to Greater Papeete (French Polynesia)","authors":"Bastien Bourlier,&nbsp;Franck Taillandier,&nbsp;Charlotte Heinzlef,&nbsp;Damien Serre,&nbsp;Corinne Curt","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70005","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Flash floods and coastal flooding are more and more frequent and damaging in the context of climate change. In addition, the concentration of the population in urban areas contributes to increasing flood risk in these areas. Furthermore, not all territories are at the same level in their risk and resilience management approaches. Regarding this, the French overseas territories have been identified as particularly vulnerable to flood risk. This is the case for Tahiti, the main island of French Polynesia where the capital is located. It is a dense urban area subject to coastal and river flooding hazards, largely exacerbated by the physical environment. Our goal is to propose a method to assess flood resilience in Tahiti. We developed an indicator-based method and used GIS to produce and represent a spatial analysis of territorial resilience. We developed a list of comprehensive spatial indicators that take into account three main dimensions: a structural dimension (e.g., building resilience), an organisational dimension (e.g., the resilience of actions during crisis) and a socio-economic dimension (e.g., human economic capital). The final objective of this research is to design decision-making tools for territorial stakeholders to help them in long-term reflection and collaboration.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70005","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143446962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying the Impacts of Land Use and Land Cover Change on Watershed Hydrology Using Spatial Cloud Computing","authors":"Anwarelsadat Eltayeb Elmahal,&nbsp;Wifag Hassan Mahmoud,&nbsp;Ahmed Abdalla,&nbsp;Mohammed Mahmoud Ibrahim","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70014","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change and Land Use Land Cover Change (LULCC) impact on rainfall and runoff is globally evident. However, flash flood impacts on drylands are rarely investigated. A comparable watershed in the dryland of Sudan experienced devastating flash flood impacts for the last four decades (1980s–2020s). The unexpected severity of the 2013 flash flood prompted an investigation into hydrologic and LULCC to determine its cause. We combined spatial cloud computing with hydrological analysis to investigate the relationship between LULCC and peri-hydrological processes for four decades. The Landsat time series analysis shows significant LULC changes: agricultural and rangelands decreased by over 80%, while urban and barren areas increased by 81% and 31%, respectively. The daily rainfall analysis shows that rainstorms exceeding 40 mm were classified as destructive only under wet antecedent soil moisture conditions (1988, 2009, and 2019). Unexpectedly, the 41 mm rainstorm in 2013 occurred under dry conditions. The respective flood magnitude was 4.6 Mm3 according to the US-Natural Resources Conservation Service (US-NRCS). This represents only 14% of the potential runoff under wet conditions (32.3 Mm3) for the same rainstorm. Therefore, the devastating impact of the rainstorm emphasizes the impact of LULCC on flood dynamics in peri-urban areas of drylands.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70014","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143438788","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Experimental Study of Dike-Break Induced Flow Generated by Instantaneous Opening of the Side Gate","authors":"Dawei Zhang,&nbsp;Zhongxiang Wang,&nbsp;Huiwen Liu,&nbsp;Wuxia Bi","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70017","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A large-scale experimental model of instantaneous dike-break induced flow was conducted in this work. Water level variations in the river channel and floodplain, breach discharge, and the surface velocity field at the breach were measured during dike failure. The results show that: (i) The water level in the river rapidly decreased to a minimum (15%–22% of the initial water depth), then began to gradually rise, and finally approached stable. The water level in the floodplain gradually increased and ultimately tended towards stability. (ii) The breach discharge initially increased to a peak, then gradually decreased with a decreasing rate. The peak discharge was not only related to the initial river water level before dike-break, but also to the river velocity. Under the same conditions, the higher the river water level or the higher the river velocity, the greater the flood peak at the breach. And (iii) During the process of dike-break, the surface velocity of the breach flow gradually decreased. Other things being equal, a higher river water depth or a higher river velocity led to a larger surface velocity of the breach flow. These findings help better understand the hydrodynamic process and provide data support for models.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70017","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143431753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Social Innovations and Transformations in Flood Risk Management","authors":"Thomas Thaler,&nbsp;Christian Kuhlicke,&nbsp;Thomas Hartmann","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70008","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;Flood risk management has changed significantly over the past decades (Kuhlicke et al. &lt;span&gt;2020&lt;/span&gt;). The focus has shifted from flood protection to flood risk management also with the consequence to change the relationship and arrangement between state and nonstate actors (Hartmann and Juepner &lt;span&gt;2014&lt;/span&gt;; Hartmann and Driessen &lt;span&gt;2017&lt;/span&gt;). Flood protection embraces a hazard-based perspective that relies primarily on engineering solutions. It is driven by expert-based and top-down decision-making. Flood risk management include a broader more holistic perspective of dealing with floods, including stronger involvement of nonstate actors (Adger et al. &lt;span&gt;2013&lt;/span&gt;; Hartmann and Driessen &lt;span&gt;2017&lt;/span&gt;; Kuhlicke et al. &lt;span&gt;2020&lt;/span&gt;). A core aim of flood risk management is also to encourage bottom-up innovative solutions for managing flood hazards (Thaler, Attems, and Fuchs &lt;span&gt;2022&lt;/span&gt;; Birkmann et al. &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;; Junger et al. &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;). Nevertheless, the selection process of flood risk management strategies still places a strong emphasis on technical mitigation measures. A significant barrier remains the preference within flood risk management for established and reliable methods over more experimental approaches that could potentially achieve broader objectives. In addition to conventional technical measures, which are often capital-intensive and can lead to environmental degradation, there is a growing need for innovative solutions that can not only effectively reduce flood risks, but also contribute to nature conservation, climate change mitigation, sustainable natural resource management, and the successful implementation of the European Water Framework Directive and the Floods Directive. Moreover, these innovations should aim to deliver societal co-benefits, such as improved quality of life and well-being. However, the success of these innovative concepts depends on social innovations that can drive a societal transformation process.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The concept social innovation has been introduced a long time ago with the aim to overcome lock-in situations and to provide “better” responses to ongoing societal problems, such as managing the housing crises, encouraging our society toward decarbonization, selecting and implementing climate adaptation strategies, dealing other national and international crises and so forth (Hamdouch and Nyseth &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;). The core point of social innovation is the encouragement of social change, including a collective decision-making process. Put differently, social innovation can be understood as a way in which people are aiming at establishing new and more effective answers to the challenges that societies face, while at the same time embedding these solutions in a way that address societal needs (and not only steered towards economic profit). In this way, social innovation puts a greater emphasis compared to other types of innovation on values attached to p","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70008","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143431672","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prediction of Spatial Distribution of Debris-Flow Hit Probability Considering the Source-Location Uncertainty","authors":"Kazuki Yamanoi,&nbsp;Satoru Oishi,&nbsp;Kenji Kawaike","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70011","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Debris-flow affected area is typically predicted using runout simulations, often estimating the hydrograph from rainfall conditions. However, rainfall is rarely considered when predicting initiation locations, which influence the occurrence number and location. This study proposes a hybrid method combining statistical source-location prediction based on rainfall conditions and runout simulations inputting the predicted source locations. First, logistic regression is used to predict the spatial probability of debris-flow initiation with rainfall as an input. Next, Monte Carlo simulation based on the initiation location generated from the rainfall-based probability yields the spatial distribution of the debris-flow hit probability. Simulation parameters are systematically determined in advance based on topographic change obtained via aerial LiDAR observations. This method was successfully employed to estimate the spatial distribution of the debris-flow hit probability at 1-m resolution for a debris-flow disaster that occurred in Hiroshima prefecture, Japan, using rainfall data obtained by radar. The simulation time indicated that hit probability can be issued prior to the event for early warning, owing to the adequate lead time of rainfall forecasts and recent developments in computational technology. The hit probability obtained in this study can be also applied to risk quantification based on rainfall conditions.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70011","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143424084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optimal Flood Discharge Scheduling to Alleviate Vibration Under Gate Operational Rules","authors":"Zetai Yang,&nbsp;Suzhen Feng,&nbsp;Kaixiang Fu,&nbsp;Jinwen Wang","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70015","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The concomitant vibration of flood discharge, which would cause structure damages to hydraulic infrastructure and thus incurs threats to nearby communities, has rarely been addressed yet cries for an effective solution in discharge scheduling of sluice gates. This work improves on the traditional practice (Model-I) that mainly aims to restrain start-up and shutdown actions of spillway gates with a new model (Model-II) that includes a flexible vibration damping rule, in which the sluice gates are grouped in priority to be sequentially committed, and in the same group, a reference gate is prioritised to enforce a uniform discharge from the active outlets and the gates are paired to ensure a symmetrical opening. The case studies in the Xiangjiaba Dam (XD) demonstrate the excellent adaptability of the model to gate opening patterns concluded with field experiments and site monitoring, and comparing the two models reveals that Model-II can enforce preferable operational rules to deliver safer discharge scheduling and potentially to reduce risks from the concomitant vibration of hydraulic facilities and the turbulent flow field around the dam during flood discharging, though leading to a much higher frequency of starting up and shutting down of sluice gates than the traditional Model-I.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70015","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143424012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Harnessing Novel Data-Driven Techniques for Precise Rainfall–Runoff Modeling","authors":"Saad Sh. Sammen,&nbsp;Reza Mohammadpour,&nbsp;Karam AlSafadi,&nbsp;Ali Mokhtar,&nbsp;Shamsuddin Shahid","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70013","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Rainfall and runoff are considered the main components of the hydrological cycle, and their forecasting is of great significance in water resource management, particularly for reservoir operation. Developing an accurate model to capture the dynamic connection between rainfall and runoff remains problematic and challenging in water resource management due to the nonstationary characteristics of hydrologic processes and the effects of noise. In this study, data-driven techniques, such as the group method of data handling (GMDH), extreme learning machine (ELM), and two hybrids of artificial neural network (ANN) with Cuckoo search algorithm (ANN + Cuckoo) and genetic algorithm (ANN + GA) were used to model the rainfall–runoff relationship. For a comprehensive analysis, four scenarios were examined based on the different input combinations to test and select the best scenario and best model performance. The results indicated that the performance of ELM and GMDH in predicting runoff was more accurate than that of ANN + Cuckoo and ANN + GA. Although the GMDH predicts runoff with higher accuracy, ELM provides reliable performance in simulating both low and high values. The models' performance can be ranked based on the testing data in the following order: GMDH, ELM, ANN + GA, and ANN + CUKOO. The root mean squared error (RMSE) was recorded as 56.7 and 69.7 m³/s for the GMDH and ELM models, respectively. These low RMSE values highlight the potential of these models in effectively addressing the challenges associated with the complexity of rainfall–runoff simulations. Moreover, the results demonstrate that the machine learning models could be used as a simple, rapid, and inexpensive approach for timely and reliable runoff prediction that is expected to benefit reservoir management.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70013","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143431456","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economic Exposure of Canadian Residential Properties to Flooding","authors":"Gabriel Morin,&nbsp;Mathieu Boudreault,&nbsp;Jason Thistlethwaite,&nbsp;Michael Bourdeau-Brien,&nbsp;Jacob Chenette,&nbsp;Daniel Henstra,&nbsp;Jonathan Raikes","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70012","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Flood risk management (FRM) involves planning proactively for flooding in high-risk areas to reduce its impacts on people and property. A key challenge for governments pursuing FRM is to pinpoint assets that are highly economically exposed and vulnerable to flood hazards in order to prioritize them in policy and planning. This paper presents a novel flood risk assessment, making use of a dataset that identifies the location, dwelling type, property characteristics, and potential economic losses of Canadian residential properties. The findings reveal that the average annual costs are $1.4B, but most of the risks are concentrated in high-risk areas. Data gaps are uncovered that justify replication through local validation studies. The results provide a novel evidence base for specific reforms in Canada's approach to FRM, with a focus on insurance that improves both implementation and effectiveness.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70012","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143431455","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}