Journal of Flood Risk Management最新文献

{"title":"Modelling Resilience to Floods in Art Cities: A Historical Perspective","authors":"Chiara Arrighi,&nbsp;Fabio Castelli","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70018","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Art cities are characterized by peculiar exposure and vulnerability aspects which are rarely addressed in flood risk studies. This works investigates art cities in terms of exposure and resilience by considering the effects of cultural heritage. Flood hazard considers a “what-if” scenario comparison based on an historical event as it occurred in the past and as it would occur today and in future with countermeasures in place. The analysis is carried out in the city of Florence (Italy), a UNESCO World heritage site, affected by the last flood in 1966. The results show that countermeasures have slightly reduced inundation extent (−7%) and depths. Exposure of buildings has increased (+17%), but the exposed residential population has decreased (−38%) due to gentrification. On the other side, the fluctuating population exposure has dramatically increased (+1511%). Finally, despite the limited flood hazard reduction, resilience has increased, with a reduction of post-event recovery time (−21%). In future, completed mitigations works will reduce substantially flood hazard and exposure of residents and tourists. It appears that cultural heritage plays a twofold and contrasting role. On the one hand, it attracts a fluctuating population, which increases exposure, and, on the other, it fosters the recovery.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70018","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143770412","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring Material and Ideational Dimensions in Policy Networks: A Social Network Analysis of Flood Disaster Risk Management in Ghana","authors":"Fafali R. Ziga-Abortta","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70041","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Flood disasters with cascading characteristics traverse decision-making levels involving a spectrum of actors. Actors involved in Flood Disaster Risk Management (FDRM) form networks to implement related policies. Utilizing an ideational policy network approach, this study contributes knowledge to the role of material and ideational exchanges in policy networks. Two empirical case-study research questions are posed: (1) How is Ghana's FDRM policy network structured in relation to information and resource exchange and trust? (2) How does ideational (mis)alignment influence this network? Methodologically, a quantitative Social Network Analysis is combined with qualitative interpretations. Results show that the current policy network primarily facilitates “information and knowledge exchanges” dominated by centralized state agencies reemphasizing traditional conceptualizations of the state as the primary duty bearer of disaster management. The network benefits from influential actors who act as brokers, fostering shared ideas of resolute problem-solving despite challenges, while maintaining strategic diplomatic ties that enable network endurance. The study reveals complex patterns of ideational alignment and misalignment, where actors' problem definitions do not necessarily correspond with their preferred solutions. Four distinct scenarios emerge: full alignment, partial alignment, partial misalignment, and complete misalignment of shared ideas, demonstrating how material and ideational dimensions interact to shape policy implementation outcomes.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70041","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143761895","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the Effects of Climate Change and Land-Use Changes on Extreme Discharge in the Western Watershed of Lake Urmia, Iran","authors":"Ghasem Farahmand,&nbsp;Behzad Hessari,&nbsp;Hossein Salehi","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70037","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study investigates the impacts of climate change and land-use changes on peak discharge and runoff behavior in the western watersheds of Lake Urmia, Iran. Employing machine learning algorithms (e.g., SVM), stochastic models (e.g., CA-MARKOV), ERA5 reanalysis climate data, and the large-scale hydrological VIC model, we assessed these effects across multiple sub-basins. Our analysis revealed that a 2°C rise in average minimum winter temperature over the past 50 years has reduced frost days by nearly 80 days, diminished mountain snow volume, and shifted precipitation from snow to a mix of snow, rain, and snowmelt. Consequently, peak discharge timing has advanced from May to March and April, amplifying flood intensity and frequency, with some sub-basins showing up to 30% higher peak flows. Furthermore, land-use change assessments indicated that expanding orchards and irrigated and rain-fed agricultural lands will significantly elevate future peak discharge, with differences exceeding 10 m³/s in sub-basins like Nazlochay and Barandozchay, driven by reduced infiltration and increased runoff rates. Modeling with these tools confirmed that climate and land-use changes synergistically alter flood dynamics, a pattern consistent with regional studies. These findings underscore the urgent need to integrate these factors into flood management strategies for this flood-prone region, offering a robust framework for sub-basin-scale hydrological planning.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70037","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143762011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"3D Modeling of A Novel Curved Submerged Vane With Variable Profile for the Protection of Meandering River Beds","authors":"Bestami Taşar,&nbsp;Fatih Üneş,&nbsp;Ercan Gemici,&nbsp;Hakan Varçin","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70048","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Due to scour problems caused by flooding or high and turbulent flow in the riverbed, river regulation structures are important on the outer meander. Submerged vanes are a new method for meandering open channels and river regulation. In this study, initially, using a flow discharge of 20 L/s, the numerical results of the no-vane (V0) and three-array with six submerged vanes (V1) in meandering open channel flows have been calibrated with experimental results. Then, the submerged vane cases with no angle (CV1) and 20° angle (CV2–CV3) were investigated numerically. In the presented numerical models, continuity, momentum, and turbulence model equations were used. The <i>k</i>–<i>ε</i> model was used for turbulence viscosity. The results of the numerical model were compared with the experimental model results. Additionally, flow velocities and depth were analyzed using numerical models. In the outer meander, the three-array with curved vane structures (CV1, CV2 and CV3) affected the flow velocity by 77%–92% in the region behind the vane. The flow velocities were investigated along with depth using the numerical modeling and found that the mean velocity was reduced by 54%–83% along the depth. As an effective method of reducing flow velocities and directing flows, it is also recommended that submerged vane structures be used.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70048","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143761910","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Proposed Method to Estimate Climate Change Impacts on Dam's Spillway Design Flood","authors":"Mohammad Reza Khazaei","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70040","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Overtopping of a dam, which can be due to inadequate spillway design, is often a precursor to dam failure. Generally, dam spillways are designed using historical hydro-meteorological records. However, the hydrological regime of rivers and floods' intensity may change in the future due to climate change. Although climate change impacts should be considered in spillway design, their consideration remains a challenge. Spillway flow is affected by many factors, each of which can change due to climate change. This paper aims to propose a method for assessing the impacts of climate change on spillway design floods, which considers a wide range of these changes. The method incorporates a robust weather generator, a daily hydrological model, and a reservoir model. The results indicated that the conjunction of the models can acceptably simulate extreme spillway flows. The proposed method was used to assess climate change's impact on the annual maximum spillway flows of a potential large dam in Iran under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) model. The findings indicate that while mean monthly spillway flow decreases under all scenarios, extreme spillway flows significantly increase under the RCP 8.5 scenario.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70040","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143761880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flood Classification and Improved Loss Function by Combining Deep Learning Models to Improve Water Level Prediction in a Small Mountain Watershed","authors":"Rukai Wang,&nbsp;Ximin Yuan,&nbsp;Fuchang Tian,&nbsp;Minghui Liu,&nbsp;Xiujie Wang,&nbsp;Xiaobin Li,&nbsp;Minrui Wu","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70022","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Floods are major natural disasters that present considerable challenges to socioeconomic and ecological systems. Flash floods are highly nonlinear and exhibit rapid spatiotemporal variability. Existing methods struggle to capture these features, leading to suboptimal long-term and peak flood prediction accuracy. This study proposes a hierarchical flood prediction model based on clustering to enhance forecasting accuracy in the Heshengxi watershed. We employ STGCN and GWN models with the spatiotemporal attention mechanism. Enhanced loss functions further refine flood prediction accuracy. Results show that the hierarchical prediction method is an effective means of extracting flood features by addressing the variability of prediction parameters for different flood magnitudes. The integration of Graph Convolutional and Time Aware models enables the model to recognize the spatiotemporal flood characteristics, overcoming limitations of prevailing methods and ensuring long-term forecast accuracy. The optimized loss function further improves the prediction performance, resulting in a significant improvement in the accuracy of flood peak prediction, with a reduction of 0.26% in the relative error of the peak prediction by the GWN model. This framework provides an effective solution for flood warning, emergency response, and optimal scheduling. It also demonstrates the potential of deep learning models in the field of intelligent hydrological forecasting.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70022","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143762180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flood Risk Reduction—What Are the Priorities? The Perspective of Private Households After the Ahr Flood of 2021","authors":"Alessa Truedinger,&nbsp;Joern Birkmann","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70033","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Severe flooding, induced by heavy rainfall in Central and Western Europe in July 2021, particularly affected the Ahr Valley in Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany. Since flood preparedness and prevention of private households play a crucial role in the risk management cycle and in terms of climate adaptation, a household survey was conducted in the county of Ahrweiler in the aftermath of the disaster to examine the perceptions and actions of private households after such a disaster with regard to flood prevention. We have found that public information, communication, and education play a crucial role for improving flood prevention of private households. Furthermore, we were able to identify approaches for improved flood prevention, also in terms of spatial planning. In addition, we examined enabling factors for the implementation of flood risk reduction measures, where information and assistance from public authorities play a prominent role. Overall, the respondents expect a great amount of state support, both financially and in terms of information. Our results can help public authorities to improve their own flood prevention as well as the flood preparedness of citizens.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70033","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143698789","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flood Risk Assessments for Small Catchments Under Climate Change—How Can Scotland Improve Its Policy for Enhanced Flood Resilience and Preparedness","authors":"Felipe Fileni,&nbsp;Hayley J. Fowler,&nbsp;Elizabeth Lewis,&nbsp;Fiona McLay,&nbsp;Emma Bruce,&nbsp;Marc Becker","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70035","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Flood risk assessments (FRAs) are essential tools in Scottish planning policy to identify and minimise flood risk in new planning applications. Most FRAs in Scotland are performed in (very) small (&lt; 50km²) &lt; 100km² catchments, particularly vulnerable to increases in rainfall intensity due to climate change. This study provides a historical overview of the literature used as guidance in FRAs in Scotland and then focuses on their application in smaller catchments, addressing three areas: understanding the different physical processes in smaller catchments, their representation within the guidelines and how these guidelines are applied in practice. Our results highlight the need to move beyond simple mathematical and hydrological methods for FRAs. We find that small catchments' physical processes are not adequately represented in current methods, leading to higher biases and uncertainties in modelling. When applied in practice, these techniques are often used unconventionally for the fulfilment of established guidelines. Finally, climate change science implementation into guidance also needs refinement, with current regulations lacking a sound scientific basis, particularly for smaller catchments. We underscore the need for testing and application of innovative solutions found in academia and utilisation of additional data to provide improved methods for FRAs in smaller catchments, particularly under climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70035","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143698788","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Development of Flash Flood Forecasting System for Small and Medium-Sized Rivers","authors":"Koji Ikeuchi,&nbsp;Daiki Kakinuma,&nbsp;Yosuke Nakamura,&nbsp;Shingo Numata,&nbsp;Takafumi Mochizuki,&nbsp;Keijiro Kubota,&nbsp;Masaki Yasukawa,&nbsp;Toshihiro Nemoto,&nbsp;Toshio Koike","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70026","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Owing to the increased frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall events caused by climate change, peak flood flows are expected to increase substantially in small and medium-sized rivers (SMRs) with a short time of concentration for a catchment (Tc). Accurate flood forecasts and corresponding evacuation are effective in reducing the number of casualties caused by flash floods in SMRs. Currently, flood forecasting using observed rainfall in SMRs has a short lead time, which often delays the issuance of evacuation orders by local governments. Moreover, the large number of SMRs necessitates a system that can be widely used by local governments for disaster response tasks, such as issuing evacuation orders. Therefore, we developed a system that can accurately predict when river water levels will reach the Flood Risk Level (FRL). This forecasting approach uses the rainfall–runoff–inundation (RRI) model and the H–Q equation. The parameters in the RRI model were optimized using the Shuffled Complex Evolution algorithm developed at the University of Arizona (SCE-UA) to reduce the required time and effort. The system uses real-time water level observation data to sequentially modify the basin state quantities in the RRI model using the particle filter method to improve the water level forecast accuracy. The system was implemented in 200 rivers in Japan with diverse rainfall and geological characteristics and was tested during the flood season. Accuracy verification was conducted when the forecasted water levels were operated within a range of ± 50 cm. The results showed that 75% of the flood events could be forecasted more than 2 h before reaching the FRLs. Furthermore, 89% of the flood events could be predicted with a lead time (LT; time that water levels reach the FRL—time of first forecast) of 2 h or more or a lead time equal to the Tc or more. These findings show that this system has the potential to enhance and strengthen flood warning and evacuation systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70026","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143690137","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Insights From Homeowners on the Impact of Flood Risk Communication on Adaptive Behavior at the Property Level From the 2021 Flood Event in Germany","authors":"Helene Meyer,&nbsp;Georg Johann","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70038","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The study provides insights into the impact of risk communication on adaptation behavior before and after the 2021 flood in western Germany. The aim is to ascertain how the flood influenced homeowners' adaptive behavior. The Protection Motivation Theory is employed to identify the factors that influence adaptive behavior and needs in response to flooding. To facilitate effective risk communication, we examine the FLOODLABEL, an expert-oriented communication tool. The findings contribute to the academic debate by providing insights into the impact of risk communication on adaptation behavior. The literature discusses the discrepancy between the information deemed crucial by experts and the information citizens require to make informed decisions. This discrepancy has prompted the need to investigate how an event of this magnitude has resulted in adaptive behavior and which role risk communication plays in the implementation of measures. To this end, a quantitative survey was conducted with 773 participating homeowners. The findings revealed information gaps and ineffective risk communication strategies. This study highlights the need to expand risk communication from a one-way, knowledge-based format to a more interactive and two-way process. The event caused a shift in homeowners' perceived risk; yet, this did not result in a discernible change in adaptive behavior.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70038","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}