Journal of Flood Risk Management最新文献

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Prediction of Flood Level Using LSTM and Watershed Hydrological Data 基于LSTM和流域水文数据的洪水水位预测
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-10-08 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.70123
Hyun-il Kim, Se-Dong Jang, Hehun Choi, Tae-Hyung Kim, Byunghyun Kim
{"title":"Prediction of Flood Level Using LSTM and Watershed Hydrological Data","authors":"Hyun-il Kim,&nbsp;Se-Dong Jang,&nbsp;Hehun Choi,&nbsp;Tae-Hyung Kim,&nbsp;Byunghyun Kim","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70123","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70123","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Accurate flood level prediction is crucial for mitigating flood damage caused by typhoons or localized heavy rainfall. However, predicting flood levels is challenging due to changes in river environments and external factors, such as dam or weir operations. To address these challenges, this study proposes a methodology for constructing an optimal combination of input data using basic hydrological information and predicting flood levels in real time through a deep learning model. The study focuses on identifying the best input data combination tailored to each river basin's characteristics, considering both natural runoff rivers and those influenced by dam discharges. The Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model, known for its superior performance in time-series forecasting, was employed. The results demonstrate high accuracy in flood level prediction, particularly within a 3-h lead time.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70123","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145272187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Coupling Hydrological Model With Interpretable Machine Learning for Reliable Streamflow Modeling: Daily Dynamics and Extreme Events 耦合水文模型与可解释的机器学习可靠的河流建模:每日动态和极端事件
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-10-08 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.70138
Xiaoteng Pang, Jianwei Liu, Haihua Jing, Xinghan Xu, Longhai Shen, Xiaohui Yan
{"title":"Coupling Hydrological Model With Interpretable Machine Learning for Reliable Streamflow Modeling: Daily Dynamics and Extreme Events","authors":"Xiaoteng Pang,&nbsp;Jianwei Liu,&nbsp;Haihua Jing,&nbsp;Xinghan Xu,&nbsp;Longhai Shen,&nbsp;Xiaohui Yan","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70138","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70138","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Reliable long-term daily and extreme streamflow simulation, essential for watershed sustainable development, remains challenge in changing environments due to the complementary limitations inherent in conventional physical-driven and data-driven models. This study proposed a physics-guided machine learning (ML) approach that coupled SWAT with interpretable ML to enhance streamflow simulation accuracy for both daily and extreme streamflow whilst maintaining physical interpretability. This study systematically compared SWAT and three SWAT-ML models (SWAT-DT, SWAT-LSBoost, and SWAT-RF) to modify systematic model residuals, incorporating Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) to quantify feature contributions to streamflow simulations, and apply it to the Taoer River Basin (TRB), China. Results demonstrated that coupled models achieved daily streamflow simulation with <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>KGE</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ KGE $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> values consistently above 0.94 and <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mtext>PBIAS</mtext>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ PBIAS $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> values for extreme streamflow within 17%. In comparison with the standalone SWAT, the coupled framework further cut runtime from nearly 200 h to a few minutes. Additionally, multi-model comparisons revealed the superior performance of SWAT-LSBoost in streamflow simulations, with SHAP further highlighting the predominant role of watershed hydrological process in governing coupled model. Thus, this approach enhanced modeling precision while strengthening the reliability and transparency of outputs, offering a scientifically robust foundation for decision-making in long-term water resources planning and flood-drought disaster mitigation strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70138","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145272191","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Anticipatory Action in River Flooding Risk Management in Nigeria: An Assessment of Community-Level Implementation 尼日利亚河流洪水风险管理的预期行动:社区层面实施的评估
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-10-07 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.70117
Dorcas Adewumi Olawuyi, Adeniyi Sulaiman Gbadegesin, Dickson ‘Dare Ajayi, Peter Oyedele, Daniel Geiger, Iris Seidemann, Pia Geisemann, Samantha Sansone, Fatimah Nasir, Oloche Percy Antenyi, Francis Salako, Judith Agada, Patience Adaje
{"title":"Anticipatory Action in River Flooding Risk Management in Nigeria: An Assessment of Community-Level Implementation","authors":"Dorcas Adewumi Olawuyi,&nbsp;Adeniyi Sulaiman Gbadegesin,&nbsp;Dickson ‘Dare Ajayi,&nbsp;Peter Oyedele,&nbsp;Daniel Geiger,&nbsp;Iris Seidemann,&nbsp;Pia Geisemann,&nbsp;Samantha Sansone,&nbsp;Fatimah Nasir,&nbsp;Oloche Percy Antenyi,&nbsp;Francis Salako,&nbsp;Judith Agada,&nbsp;Patience Adaje","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70117","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70117","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Across the world, communities face annual and increasingly extreme flood events, yet there is a widespread lack of proactive preparedness. This failure to anticipate and mitigate flood risks deepens the damages experienced, stalling development, undermining environmental sustainability, and driving many communities deeper into poverty. Anticipatory action has emerged as a proactive strategy in river flood risk management, aiming to reduce vulnerabilities and enhance community resilience before disasters strike. This study assesses the implementation of anticipatory action strategies in Nigeria by building on qualitative data to assess community vulnerabilities and capacities. Findings indicate that over 70% of the total number of respondents in the selected nine communities in Nigeria lacked access to timely early warnings, and more than half viewed floods as unavoidable, reducing their engagement in long-term resilience planning. Communities demonstrated a stronger preference for short-term relief over proactive preparedness for disasters. Findings reveal a convergence of structural and behavioral vulnerabilities within the population. This highlights the study's contribution by connecting behavioral insights with anticipatory frameworks in high-risk communities. The study shows that there is a clear need for community-driven approaches that combine anticipatory action with economic support, sustained engagement, and other adaptive measures. By closing both behavioral and structural gaps, more effective anticipatory action policies can be institutionalized.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70117","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145272054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An Explainable Flash Flood Prediction Model in the Qinling Mountains 秦岭地区可解释的山洪预报模式
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-10-07 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.70136
Huhu Cui, Jungang Luo, Xue Yang, Ganggang Zuo, Xin Jing, Guo He
{"title":"An Explainable Flash Flood Prediction Model in the Qinling Mountains","authors":"Huhu Cui,&nbsp;Jungang Luo,&nbsp;Xue Yang,&nbsp;Ganggang Zuo,&nbsp;Xin Jing,&nbsp;Guo He","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70136","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70136","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Mountainous river basins, typically located in river source areas, are characterized by steep terrain and dynamic landforms. These regions experience diverse climates due to topographic uplift, making them susceptible to frequent flash floods. The rapid onset and brief response time of flash floods pose significant challenges for achieving accurate and timely forecasting within limited warning periods. Deep learning models have emerged as powerful tools for high-precision streamflow forecasting. This study develops an LSTM-based multi-sliding window flood forecasting model for various lead times and applies it to the Qinling Mountains watershed, with an emphasis on analyzing the model's interpretability. Results from the Maduwang Basin demonstrate the model's excellent performance in flood prediction for 1- and 3-h lead times. While incorporating historical data can enhance model performance for long lead times, excessive historical inputs may be detrimental. Historical runoff significantly influences model performance. However, its contribution neither consistently increases with temporal proximity to the prediction time nor remains uniformly positive. The contribution of input features varies across different flood stages and can be explained by existing hydrological knowledge. This research demonstrates the potential of deep learning for flood forecasting in mountainous basins while providing insights into the interpretation of deep learning models. This provides scientific support for flood warning systems and emergency management.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70136","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145272055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Analyzing Synthetic Stage-Discharge Rating Curves and Riverine Flood Inundation Maps Derived From Global-Scale Hydrologic and Hydraulic Modeling 基于全球尺度水文水工模拟的综合级流量曲线和河流洪水淹没图分析
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-10-02 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.70135
Joseph L. Gutenson, Michael L. Follum, Kathleen A. Staebell, Emily S. Ondich, Mark D. Wahl
{"title":"Analyzing Synthetic Stage-Discharge Rating Curves and Riverine Flood Inundation Maps Derived From Global-Scale Hydrologic and Hydraulic Modeling","authors":"Joseph L. Gutenson,&nbsp;Michael L. Follum,&nbsp;Kathleen A. Staebell,&nbsp;Emily S. Ondich,&nbsp;Mark D. Wahl","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70135","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70135","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Synthetic rating curves (SRCs) are often used to translate streamflow forecasts into flood inundation maps. Previous studies have investigated the development and errors in SRCs at local, regional, and continental scales. In this analysis, we used the latest global methodology and datasets to develop SRCs for use in flood inundation map forecasting. Using the Yellowstone River Basin and the 2022 floods that affected the region, we analyzed the error in the SRCs assessment of stage and water surface elevation (WSE). We then investigated the error in flood inundation maps produced using the SRCs. Comparing SRCs to locally derived rating curves from 29 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gages, median error in SRC stage ranged from 0.45 to 0.65 m and SRC error was greatest at higher magnitude streamflows. This error increased to a median of 1.98–2.30 m when converting the stage to a WSE. After using the SRC WSE estimates to create an estimated flood inundation map, the WSE error at observed high-water marks (1.99 m) was nearly proportional to average WSE error at the stream gage locations along the same river reach. Our results provide the first regional assessment of globally derived SRCs that are used in flood inundation mapping.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70135","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145223949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Practitioner Perspectives of Flood Source Area (FSA) Analysis for System-Based Flood Risk Management 基于系统的洪水风险管理中洪源区(FSA)分析的从业者视角
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.70127
David A. Dawson, Emily O'Donnell, Stephanie Bond, Thomas Willis, Jonathan Huck, Matthew Sherwood, Jonathan Moxon
{"title":"Practitioner Perspectives of Flood Source Area (FSA) Analysis for System-Based Flood Risk Management","authors":"David A. Dawson,&nbsp;Emily O'Donnell,&nbsp;Stephanie Bond,&nbsp;Thomas Willis,&nbsp;Jonathan Huck,&nbsp;Matthew Sherwood,&nbsp;Jonathan Moxon","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70127","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70127","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Urban Flood Risk Management (FRM) is a critical aspect of developing resilient environments for future generations to inhabit. It is now interconnected with the requirement to be more environmentally conscious through blue-green infrastructure and the delivery of wider co-benefits. The complexity of balancing urban growth with environmental drivers and increasing resilience is a key challenge for strategic urban decision-making. Through computational modelling developments, new approaches to assess the spatial contribution of area to flood hazard are improving our understanding of the catchment response and our ability to develop multifunctional, multi-beneficial projects. Yet at present, these approaches remain largely theoretical or are a ‘best intention’. This study uses an adapted ‘Unit Flood Response’ approach to generate Flood Source Area (FSA) maps for an urban catchment in the UK. A user-focused engagement approach is applied using FSA outputs to generate key insight into its applicability from a practitioner perspective. The FSA modelling identified several hazard sources, from widespread contributions upstream to discrete contributions downstream. Stakeholders concluded that the FSA can support FRM at the pre-planning stage by providing a clearer strategic vision across the catchment to support traditional ‘receptor-led’ decision-making. Improved identification and negotiation of project partners and the potential to support/identify wider scale options that integrate with existing and planned infrastructure in other sectors, for example, housing and transport, were additional benefits of this approach. While the computational aspects of FSA analyses could be improved for model robustness (e.g., calibration, validation), they must do so with a full understanding of the practicalities of applying these techniques on the ground, demonstrating the importance of co-development of research with practitioners and decision-makers.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70127","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145223917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessment and Zonation of Flood Susceptibility in Sylhet Division, Bangladesh Using GIS and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) 基于GIS和层次分析法(AHP)的孟加拉国Sylhet地区洪水易感性评价与区划
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-09-28 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.70121
Iftekharul Islam, Md. Abdur Rahman, Md. Ibrahim Adham, Abdullah All-Sahil Majumder, Ahmadullah Zaman
{"title":"Assessment and Zonation of Flood Susceptibility in Sylhet Division, Bangladesh Using GIS and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)","authors":"Iftekharul Islam,&nbsp;Md. Abdur Rahman,&nbsp;Md. Ibrahim Adham,&nbsp;Abdullah All-Sahil Majumder,&nbsp;Ahmadullah Zaman","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70121","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70121","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Flooding poses a persistent challenge in Bangladesh, where complete prevention remains difficult due to its geographical and climatic conditions. This study integrates the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) with Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques to create a detailed flood susceptibility map for the Sylhet division in northern Bangladesh. The primary goal is to classify the region into distinct flood susceptibility zones, providing valuable insights for improving flood risk management, mitigation, and preparedness strategies. The study evaluates 12 critical flood-influencing parameters, including elevation, slope, topographic wetness index (TWI), precipitation, drainage density, proximity to roads and rivers, vegetation, land use and land cover (LULC), and soil type. These factors were chosen based on their established relevance to flood dynamics, with data sourced from reliable spatial databases to ensure accuracy. Using AHP, weights were assigned to each parameter based on expert input, reflecting their relative importance in flood risk. These weighted factors were then integrated using GIS overlay analysis and weighted linear combination techniques to generate a flood susceptibility map. The results show that approximately 35.27% of the Sylhet division, particularly the northern regions and the low-lying Haor basin, fall into the “high” flood susceptibility categories. These areas are highly vulnerable due to their flat topography, proximity to major rivers, and inadequate drainage systems. In contrast, the southern and southwestern areas, accounting for around 7.45% of the region, exhibit “low” flood susceptibility, benefiting from higher elevations and better natural drainage. This flood susceptibility map serves as an essential tool for identifying high-risk areas, supporting targeted flood mitigation efforts, and enhancing disaster preparedness. By providing a scientific foundation for effective flood management, the study aids decision-makers in reducing flood impacts and promoting the sustainable development of flood-prone regions in northern Bangladesh.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70121","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145224197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Coupled Hydrological-Hydrodynamic Modelling Approach for Assessing the Impacts of Multiple Natural Flood Management Interventions on Downstream Flooding 评估多种自然洪水管理干预措施对下游洪水影响的水文-水动力耦合建模方法
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-09-28 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.70129
Qiuyu Zhu, Megan Klaar, Thomas Willis, Joseph Holden
{"title":"A Coupled Hydrological-Hydrodynamic Modelling Approach for Assessing the Impacts of Multiple Natural Flood Management Interventions on Downstream Flooding","authors":"Qiuyu Zhu,&nbsp;Megan Klaar,&nbsp;Thomas Willis,&nbsp;Joseph Holden","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70129","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70129","url":null,"abstract":"<p>While natural flood management (NFM) as a flood mitigation strategy is becoming widely used, there remains a lack of evidence regarding the effectiveness of different NFM scenarios under high flow events. To demonstrate how different types and extents of NFM interventions interact to flood peaks at larger catchment scales, combined scenarios of existing NFM interventions and an ideal maximum woodland scenario were modelled in the Upper Aire, northern England, using a coupled model that integrates Spatially Distributed TOPMODEL (SD-TOPMODEL) with a 2D hydrodynamic model (Flood Modeller 2D) at an 81.4 km<sup>2</sup> catchment. The coupled model exhibited a strong fit with observed data (NSE up to 0.95), effectively capturing flood peaks and peak shapes. Leaky dams were found to be more effective at delaying flood peaks with mean values ranging from 8.6 to 60 min than reducing peak discharge (mean values ranging from 0.53% to 1.84%), though these effects were inversely proportional and influenced by tributary characteristics such as channel gradient. Simulations applying multiple NFM interventions consistently demonstrated positive flood mitigation impacts, including reduced peak discharge up to 2.59% and delayed peaks up to 30 min, while inundation depths reduced by 0.5 m in most areas, with inundation extent reduction at critical points in an urban area. The study demonstrated the utility of the coupled model for evaluating NFM strategies while emphasising the need for further validation and exploration of systematic interventions at larger catchment scales. By providing insights into the interactions between NFM interventions and catchment characteristics, this research contributes to the optimisation of flood risk management strategies and informs future policy development.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70129","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145224198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Factors Influencing Mental Burden Caused by Flooding: Insights from the 2021 Flood in the Ahr Valley (Germany) 影响洪水造成精神负担的因素:来自2021年Ahr河谷洪水(德国)的启示
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-09-28 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.70116
Tabea Klör, Philip Bubeck, Rainer Bell, Annegret H. Thieken
{"title":"Factors Influencing Mental Burden Caused by Flooding: Insights from the 2021 Flood in the Ahr Valley (Germany)","authors":"Tabea Klör,&nbsp;Philip Bubeck,&nbsp;Rainer Bell,&nbsp;Annegret H. Thieken","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70116","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70116","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The number of individuals exposed to flooding is increasing and is projected to increase in the future. Catastrophic events like the July 2021 flood in Germany's Ahr Valley (Rhineland-Palatinate) illustrate the severe and often long-lasting mental health impacts such disasters can cause. However, research on the psychological consequences of extreme flooding remains less developed than studies on physical damage. Gaining a clearer understanding of individual mental burden following such events is essential for tailoring recovery efforts to address mental health needs effectively. This study investigates how various factors—including flood characteristics, circumstances of the recovery process, personal characteristics, perceptions, and sociodemographic characteristics—affect self-reported mental burden. Using binary logistic regression, we analyzed responses from 277 individuals affected by the July 2021 flood in the Ahrweiler district. Results show that even 18 months after the event, 42.6% of respondents continued to experience high to very high levels of mental burden. Interestingly, the analysis found that sociodemographic variables—particularly, health status—and personal characteristics and perceptions (e.g., persistent mental preoccupation) had a greater impact on mental burden than the characteristics of the flood or the reconstruction process. Considering the strong impact of health status, health monitoring of affected populations may help identify individuals at greater risk, ensuring timely and targeted mental health interventions. These findings underscore the importance of incorporating long-term psychosocial support into disaster recovery strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70116","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145224151","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evaluating Community Flood Resilience: An Innovative Social Capital Oriented Framework 社区抗洪能力评估:一个创新的社会资本导向框架
IF 3 3区 环境科学与生态学
Journal of Flood Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.70128
Ezekiel Olatunji, David Proverbs, Chaminda Pathirage, Subashini Suresh, Olutayo Ebenezer Ekundayo, Jamie Cooper, Lucinda Capewell
{"title":"Evaluating Community Flood Resilience: An Innovative Social Capital Oriented Framework","authors":"Ezekiel Olatunji,&nbsp;David Proverbs,&nbsp;Chaminda Pathirage,&nbsp;Subashini Suresh,&nbsp;Olutayo Ebenezer Ekundayo,&nbsp;Jamie Cooper,&nbsp;Lucinda Capewell","doi":"10.1111/jfr3.70128","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70128","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Flood risk management (FRM) strategies in many developed countries increasingly focus on building flood resilience at property, community, and national levels. However, existing research on community flood resilience (CFR) has thus far inadequately addressed the social dynamics underpinning interactions among key resilience dimensions. Despite limited recognition of the social dimension, factors such as social capital and sociocultural dynamics remain insufficiently explored, warranting further investigation. This study employs a modified preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) to critically review and synthesize research gaps, before presenting an innovative social capital oriented framework to evaluate CFR. While infrastructure, economic, environmental, human, and governance dimensions play significant roles, the proposed framework emphasizes the foundational role of social capital and sociocultural factors, including norms, values, and identities, in shaping resilience outcomes and actions. These factors influence the success or failure of resilience-building efforts, particularly in diverse, deprived communities, such as those with nonnative speaking populations. This innovative framework offers insights for multisectoral stakeholders, including flood risk managers, engineers, surveyors, property owners, and local authorities, to address persistent challenges in resilience-building activities and improve intervention outcomes.</p>","PeriodicalId":49294,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Flood Risk Management","volume":"18 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.70128","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145146781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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