{"title":"Analysis of short- and long-term controls on the variability of event-based runoff coefficient","authors":"Tianle Xu , Pin-Ching Li , Venkatesh Merwade","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101993","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101993","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>This study focuses on the Ohio Region, which spans 11 states in the eastern United States.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>Runoff coefficients are crucial in hydrology, indicating the relationship between rainfall and runoff. Understanding their controls and variability is essential for water resource assessment, management strategies, and land use planning. This research examines factors influencing runoff coefficients and their trends in the Ohio region using data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System phase-2 (NLDAS-2) Mosaic Land Surface Model, covering 2000–2020. The analysis considers short-term controls, such as climatic features (rainfall intensity, amount, and duration), hydrological factors (antecedent soil moisture, drainage density, and curve number), topographic factors (drainage area, land use, slope, elevation), and watershed shape. Additionally, the study investigates trends in runoff coefficients and their long-term controls, including climatic factors and land use changes.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>The findings indicate that runoff coefficients increase with antecedent soil moisture and rainfall intensity. Higher elevations show lower runoff coefficients due to forested land use. Larger watersheds have lower runoff coefficients at low rainfall intensity but higher ones when intensity is high. Long-term trends reveal soil moisture as the primary control, with land cover changes as a secondary factor. This research deepens understanding of runoff coefficient dynamics and controls in the Ohio region. Future studies could explore the impacts of urbanization, reservoirs, evapotranspiration, and snowmelt on runoff coefficients.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"56 ","pages":"Article 101993"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142418971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Teodóra Szőcs , Ágnes Rotár Szalkai , Levente Magyar , László Palcsu , Márton Bujdosó , János Stickel , Zoltán Püspöki
{"title":"Combined interpretation of geophysical, hydrogeochemical and environmental isotope data in a distal lobe of the Maros fluvial fan, Hungary – A novel approach in aquifer characterisation","authors":"Teodóra Szőcs , Ágnes Rotár Szalkai , Levente Magyar , László Palcsu , Márton Bujdosó , János Stickel , Zoltán Püspöki","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101978","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101978","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>Pannonian Basin, Hungary, Maros fluvial fan.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>This paper presents a novel approach to characterise a distal lobe of a fluvial fan, demonstrating how a combined interpretation of high-resolution geophysical methods like electrical resistivity tomography and geophysical cone penetration tests together with log-correlation, hydrogeochemical, isotope and noble gas data provides a sound basis for aquifer characterisation. This multidisciplinary investigative approach is applicable to any fluvial fan to support water management.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>(1) The studied fluvial fan forms a hydraulically interconnected aquifer system, with three channel belts and six hydrostratigraphic units. (2) Mean groundwater residence times are distinct in the aquifers studied. Holocene infiltration, with apparent residence time younger than 20–22 years is characteristic in the uppermost channel belt and forms part of local groundwater flow systems. The deeper aquifers host groundwater infiltrated during the Pleistocene, as part of the intermediate flow system. (3) Where the silty-clayey floodplain sediments have been replaced by sandy deposits, and groundwater abstraction is present, groundwater can communicate between the upper and lower channel belts, therefore fresh infiltration passes into the deeper channel belts, resulting mostly in mean residence times younger than 100 years. However, Pleistocene infiltration was detected at about 30 m below surface in the second channel belt, where the unconfined aquifer is missing and silty-clayey sediments are on the surface.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"56 ","pages":"Article 101978"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142356861","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tao Liu , Imran Ahmad , Mithas Ahmad Dar , Martina Zelenakova , Lema Misgan Gebrie , Teshome Kifle , Gashaw Sintayehu Angualie
{"title":"Identification of hotspots and cold-spots of groundwater potential using spatial statistics","authors":"Tao Liu , Imran Ahmad , Mithas Ahmad Dar , Martina Zelenakova , Lema Misgan Gebrie , Teshome Kifle , Gashaw Sintayehu Angualie","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101977","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101977","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>The Guna-Tana landscape is located in Ethiopia. This landscape is seriously facing water scarcity problems, that’s why we studied this landscape and provided the hotspots of groundwater potential areas in this region.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>In this study the hotspots and cold-spots of groundwater potential at, 99, 95, and 90 % confidence levels has been deciphered. Using Gi-Bin values, four classes has been identified viz., 2–3 (highly favorable), 0–1 (fairly favorable), −2 to −1 (poorly favorable) and −3 (very poorly favorable). The hotspots was subjected to ordinary least squared (OLS) regression to understand the impact of chosen parameters (viz., geology, land-use, soil, rainfall, slope, and distance to rivers) towards groundwater potential.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>The absence of redundancy among the selected parameters was indicated by the VIF values of the parameters, which were determined to be less than 7.5. It was discovered that the Robust Probability (Robust_Pr) was statistically significant (p < 0.01). The OLS model appears to have captured the variability of exploratory variables, as evidenced by the decreased values of Akaike's Information Criterion (AICc). The Adjusted R-squared value of 0.9119 indicates that exploratory variables has successfully explained 91.19 % of the variance of the model.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"56 ","pages":"Article 101977"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142356860","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Il Hwan Kim , Sun Woo Chang , Min-Gyu Kim , Il-Moon Chung
{"title":"Effects of a bypass-type multistage sand-filled dam on water supply in a drought-vulnerable area in Mullocheon catchment, South Korea","authors":"Il Hwan Kim , Sun Woo Chang , Min-Gyu Kim , Il-Moon Chung","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101997","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101997","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>Mullocheon catchment, Gangwon-do, South Korea</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>Climate change can lead to extreme droughts worldwide, and regions relying on valley streams without large reservoirs are more vulnerable to drought. To address this, a bypass-type multistage sand-filled dam (BMSD) was constructed in a drought-prone area in South Korea, specifically in the Mullocheon catchment, to supply water to a small-population village. The BMSD was connected in series with an existing small pond, and the drainage rates were integrated through a single conduit. Quantitatively analyzing the contribution of the newly constructed sand-filled dam was challenging, so this study investigated the effect of the sand dam on water supply capacity using a bed-mounted infiltration system. The contribution of the sand-filled dam to the total drainage rate was calculated using observation data.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>The hydraulic conductivity of the riverbed and the drainage rate of the intake pond were estimated using the observed water level and flow rate. Prior to the installation of the sand dam, from January to May 2021, the total precipitation was approximately 284.72 mm, and the average drainage rate was 76.78 m³/d. After the sand dam was installed, from January to May 2022, the precipitation was 165.13 mm, and the average drainage rate increased by 45.4 % to 124.49 m³/d. It was observed that during normal periods, the supply was more than three times greater than before, and even during droughts, the supply met the residents' needs. This indicates that the sand-filled dam’s storage effect has enhanced drought resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"56 ","pages":"Article 101997"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142357100","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Fifty years marshland changes in a large floodplain lake: Natural driving or human impact?","authors":"Zhao Lu , Xijun Lai , Min Gan , Yinghao Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101966","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101966","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Study region: Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater floodplain lake in China. Study focus: Marshlands in a floodplain, as the typical natural wetland offering vital habitats for various organisms, are sensitive to environmental changes. The spatiotemporal changes of marshlands were investigated and their driving forces from both natural factors and human activities were discussed. The remote sensing image data from 1973 to 2022 was adopted to explore the long-term changes of marshlands exposed in dry season. New hydrological insights for the region: Over the past fifty years, the total area of marshlands in Poyang Lake is around 2540–2718 km<sup>2</sup> and has undergone substantial changes. It follows the bell-shaped curve pattern with continuous rise since 1970s and reach the maximum at the end of 20 century and then fluctuating decline. Different evolutionary patterns were identified in different lake regions owing to the combination of human activities and natural processes. The expanding marshlands mainly concentrate in the central lake, while the significant losses of marshlands are observed in the northern lake(By sand mining and dyke constructions). In the southern lake, sediment input from inflow rivers deposited naturally in the river mouth elevated the lake bed and lead to delta expansion(A 3.1 km expansion has been observed). The complex geomorphological processes and fishery activities also create the dish-shaped internal sub-lakes in marshlands.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"56 ","pages":"Article 101966"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221458182400315X/pdfft?md5=a78bfec445b1fad71b0b71e62466e6cc&pid=1-s2.0-S221458182400315X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142314459","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Wentao Xu , Junliang Jin , Jianyun Zhang , Shanshui Yuan , Ming Tang , Yanli Liu , Tiesheng Guan
{"title":"Prediction of regional water resources carrying capacity based on stochastic simulation: A case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration","authors":"Wentao Xu , Junliang Jin , Jianyun Zhang , Shanshui Yuan , Ming Tang , Yanli Liu , Tiesheng Guan","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101976","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101976","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration in China</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>The prediction of water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) can provide an effective reference for the rational allocation and efficient utilization of water resources. Traditional prediction methods obtained a definite WRCC value but fail to reflect the uncertainty of WRCC changes and limit reference for the optimal allocation of water resources. To ensure the accuracy, availability and comprehensiveness of prediction, this paper adopts the improved principal component analysis (PCA) to screen indicators, and predicts the WRCC through the coupled model of Monte Carlo and Grey Wolf Optimization-Support Vector Machine(GWO-SVM), addressing single result issues and computational complexity. At the same time, various regulation schemes for sensitive indicators are designed to provide an effective guidance for the optimal allocation and sustainable use of water resources.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>In 2025, the probability of WRCC in Tianjin, Handan, Xingtai, Hengshui, Cangzhou, Langfang to maintain grade III is more than 80 %, and that in Beijing, Baoding, Tangshan, Qinhuangdao, Zhangjiakou, Chengde to reach grade IV is more than 50 %. The sensitivity analysis shows that the sensitive indicators mainly focus on water supply and consumption, water use efficiency and pollutant gas emissions. The WRCC can be further improved under different schemes. The results can provide effective guidance for the optimal allocation of water resources and maintain sustainable economic and social development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"56 ","pages":"Article 101976"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581824003252/pdfft?md5=2c7e42a3e32b5d764992aa1fe492eafb&pid=1-s2.0-S2214581824003252-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142314458","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Doaa Hegazy , Abotalib Z. Abotalib , Mohamed Sultan , Sayed M. Arafat , Mohamed El-Bastawesy , Adel Yehia , Karim Abdelmalik
{"title":"Characterization of recharge sources of the Miocene Fluvial Moghra aquifer in the North Western Desert of Egypt","authors":"Doaa Hegazy , Abotalib Z. Abotalib , Mohamed Sultan , Sayed M. Arafat , Mohamed El-Bastawesy , Adel Yehia , Karim Abdelmalik","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101980","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101980","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><p>The Miocene Fluvial Moghra Aquifer in the North Western Desert of Egypt</p></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><p>The study integrates stable isotope analyses with aeromagnetic and hydrogeological datasets to accomplish the following: (1) define the primary source(s) of recharge to the Moghra aquifer, (2) assess aquifer connectivity with the Nile River aquifer, and (3) investigate the vertical connectivity of the Moghra aquifer with the underlying Nubian Aquifer System (NAS) through subvertical faults.</p></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><p>The findings reveal (1) significant heterogeneity in groundwater isotopic compositions (Group A: δ<sup>18</sup>O: 1.1–13.8 ‰; δD: 4.6–73.5 ‰, B: δ<sup>18</sup>O:−0.99 to 0.85; δD: −7.58 to 4.38 ‰; and C: δ<sup>18</sup>O:−1.1 to −3.4; δD: − 6.3 to −18.2 ‰) indicative of variability in recharge sources. (2) Groundwater compositions west (up to 30 km) of the Nile River (Group A) resemble enriched modern Nile waters following the Aswan High Dam (AHD) construction that give way further west to relatively depleted groundwater (Group B) resembling historical pre-AHD Nile water compositions. (3) Further west from Group B depleted Group C samples occur along intersections of multiple fault systems (NW and NE-oriented faults) interpreted as mixtures of rising highly-depleted paleo Nubian Aquifer System (NAS) waters and pre-AHD Nile waters. (4) The advocated structural control is reported in similar settings in Egypt, suggesting that intersections of multiple fault systems provide regional connections between deep and shallow aquifers in northeast Africa, recharge overlying shallow aquifers, and should be considered in groundwater management scenarios.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"56 ","pages":"Article 101980"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221458182400329X/pdfft?md5=283c1d7d8f1ad866920ef5d339b7a98e&pid=1-s2.0-S221458182400329X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142274219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nicole Hanselmann, Marzena Osuch, Tomasz Wawrzyniak, Abhishek Bamby Alphonse
{"title":"Evaluating potential evapotranspiration methods in a rapidly warming Arctic region, SW Spitsbergen (1983–2023)","authors":"Nicole Hanselmann, Marzena Osuch, Tomasz Wawrzyniak, Abhishek Bamby Alphonse","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101979","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101979","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study regions</h3><div>Hornsund, SW Spitsbergen, Svalbard – area representing atlantic sector of High Arctic</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>Svalbard's warming climate significantly alters its hydrological conditions. Evapotranspiration, a crucial hydrological component, is understudied in this High Arctic environment. In this study, daily potential evapotranspiration (PET) estimates for the period 1983–2023 were calculated using meteorological data from the Polish Polar Station Hornsund (SW Spitsbergen). 11 different PET methods were applied, those include radiation-based, temperature-based, radiation-temperature-based, and combined methods.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>The results show a large spread in the annual sum of PET ranging from ∼20 mm/y (Kharrufa) through ∼300 mm/y (Penman-Monteith) up to ∼450 mm/y (Abtew). Trends analysis shows different outcomes depending on the length of the averaging period. Using a daily timescale, PET methods tend to show more similar patterns of changes than using monthly timescales. The changes in PET estimates differ between the models, hence classifying PET methods should consider their sensitivity to meteorological changes. PET estimates were compared with pan measurements at a daily time scale in 2022–2023. The Penman method produced the best results in relation to pan measurements. In other cases, despite a relatively high linear correlation, calibration to local conditions is needed to scale the outcomes and limit biases. This study improves understanding of how PET models perform in the rapidly changing High Arctic climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"56 ","pages":"Article 101979"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581824003288/pdfft?md5=c0051e8fc97198d996ae1534422d2a35&pid=1-s2.0-S2214581824003288-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142311033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Optimization framework for eco-hydrological connectivity schemes based on graph theory and waterfront accessibility","authors":"Yuping Han , Yao Xu , Runxiang Cao , Zhongpei Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101975","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101975","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study Region</h3><p>Zhengzhou section of the Jialu River.</p></div><div><h3>Study Focus</h3><p>In this study, the Zhengzhou section of the Jialu River was chosen to construct a watershed river network graph model based on graph theory, and this model could describe water volume distribution at diversion nodes and water balance relationships, which aimed to maximize the ecological landscape area. Considering residential aggregation along riverbanks, a waterfront accessibility matrix was used to derive an optimized water system connectivity scheme based on flow allocation at diversion nodes.</p></div><div><h3>New Hydrological Insights for the Region</h3><p>In the optimized scheme, flow distribution from 5 diversion nodes to downstream river sections ranged from 0.2 to 0.8, resulting in significant changes in the landscape area of 20 river segments. The ecological landscape area under the optimal scenario was 31.06 km<sup>2</sup>, which was 0.03 km<sup>2</sup> more than the worst-case scenario. The water system connectivity allocation remained consistent before and after considering waterfront accessibility, and the optimal weighted landscape area was 12.69 km<sup>2</sup> with waterfront accessibility in mind. Considering the accessibility of waterfront areas, the center of gravity of the water system connectivity scheme shad undergone a significant change before and after. The research results could provide theoretical support for the construction of regional ecological civilization.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"56 ","pages":"Article 101975"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581824003240/pdfft?md5=44a0c0557317000db15a407ff0275df4&pid=1-s2.0-S2214581824003240-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142274134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ali Mokhtar , Mohammed Magdy Hamed , Hongming He , Ali Salem , Zeinab M. Hendy
{"title":"Egypt's water future: AI predicts evapotranspiration shifts across climate zones","authors":"Ali Mokhtar , Mohammed Magdy Hamed , Hongming He , Ali Salem , Zeinab M. Hendy","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101968","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101968","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study Region</h3><p>Egypt is a country located in northeastern Africa.</p></div><div><h3>Study Focus</h3><p>The research evaluated the random forest (RF) and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) as single models and the models' hybrid to predict the ETo for the baseline and future (2015–2099) period from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1–26, SSP2–45 and SSP5–85) based on 18 GCMs models.</p></div><div><h3>New Hydrological Insights for the Region</h3><p>The hybrid model has performed better than single models; compared RF and XGB to RF-XGB, the RMSE values were decreased in all zones esepically in zone 3 by 16.2 %, these results indicate that the highest performances of all models are observed in the middle and south Egypt, which exhibit the strongest correlation between temperature and ETo. For the SSP5–8.5 scenario, the ETo increased over the years for all zones; the ETo will increase by 4.38 %,3.71 %, 4.27 %, 2.16 %, 3.26 %, 1.35 %, 5.22 % at the year 2099 compared to the year 2015 for zone 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 respectively. The T<sub>min</sub> and T<sub>max</sub> are the most critical factors that affect the ETo in all zones in the baseline and future scenarios. This study provides important insights into applying machine learning models to estimate ETo and its implications for future water management strategies. Such models hold promise for significantly enhancing regional agricultural water-resource planning and management.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"56 ","pages":"Article 101968"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581824003173/pdfft?md5=ce109ae41e6d8c0bf2e30bdfc42184fb&pid=1-s2.0-S2214581824003173-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142241669","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}