Hybrid heterogeneous ensemble learning framework for flood susceptibility mapping in Balochistan, Pakistan

Abstract

Study region

The National Highways 85 and 50, key routes of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in Balochistan, Pakistan.

Study focus

Flooding is a natural disaster that is becoming increasingly frequent and severe. The National Highways 85 and 50 are vulnerable, necessitating accurate flood susceptibility mapping (FSM). Current machine learning (ML) models for FSM often suffer from low efficiency and overfitting. This study introduces an innovative hybrid FSM approach using four heterogeneous ensemble learning (HEL) techniques combined with three ML models: Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM). The proposed method was tested using satellite data from Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, and Landsat-8, analyzing 1371 flood locations and 12 contributing variables. RF, variable importance factors (VIF), and information gain ratio (IGR) were applied to assess multicollinearity. The dataset was split (70:30) for model training and testing, with HEL-based models achieving superior performance over single ML models.

New hydrological insights for the region

The stacking model yielded the highest AUROC (0.98), Kappa (0.82), accuracy (0.927), precision (0.963), Matthew’s correlation coefficient (0.820), and F1-score (0.950). HEL-based models proved more stable and resistant to overfitting. IGR analysis identified slope and distance from streams as key factors in FSM. The resulting flood-prone maps provide insights for disaster management adaptation strategies, demonstrating the broader applicability of the developed approach to enhance FSM accuracy and reliability.