Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies最新文献

{"title":"Monitoring and modeling hydrologic conditions in Ukraine for hydropower generation","authors":"Matthew J. McCarthy ,&nbsp;Jesus D. Gomez-Velez ,&nbsp;David Hughes ,&nbsp;Shannon Meade","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102518","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102518","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>The Dnieper and Dniester Rivers of Ukraine.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has caused disruptions to electricity generation, of which hydroelectric sources contribute approximately 9 % to the country’s needs. With the takeover of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant by enemy forces, the loss of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam, and the future impacts of the conflict on electricity generation unclear, it may be valuable for the Ukrainian government to better understand how it could leverage hydroelectric power sources in the near future. Unfortunately, measurements of river discharge throughout Ukraine ceased data collection in the late 1980’s to early 1990’s. To address this data gap, we developed a protocol that combined satellite-based time-series measurements of river width at seven locations throughout Ukraine from 2013 to 2023 with reanalysis data, climate-model predictions, and hydrologic models to both provide a means of monitoring a proxy for near-real-time discharge and also predict near-term (i.e., 2023–2030) hydrologic patterns for the region.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>We ran new algorithms on 144 WorldView-2 and WorldView-3 satellite images to map rivers and extract width, one of which was validated against river gauge data located along the same river but in a neighboring country. Hydrologic models using two climate scenarios found minimal change in annual discharge at all sites, but magnitude and timing of peak discharge showed a moderate trend. The results suggest that hydropower is underutilized in Ukraine.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 102518"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144330438","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Innovative use of reanalysis data in Slovenia: Enhancing precipitation time series with a multiplicative cascade model","authors":"Hannes Müller-Thomy ,&nbsp;Jana Kellner ,&nbsp;Patrick Nistahl ,&nbsp;Nejc Bezak ,&nbsp;Katarina Zabret ,&nbsp;Kai Schröter","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102530","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102530","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>Slovenia</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>Precipitation reanalysis products (PRP) with hourly resolution as ERA5-Land and COSMO-REA6 are a promising solution for hydrologic applications in data scarce regions as Slovenia. Both data sets are validated against observed hourly time series from 5 rain gauges and areal precipitation in 20 catchments in Slovenia regarding continuous and event-based precipitation characteristics as well as extreme values. Both, station and catchment precipitation are not well-represented by PRP, with a worse representation by ERA5-Land than COSMO-REA6. The aim of this study is to explore how if the PRP time series can, instead of being directly appliedtime series, from precipitation reanalysis products (PRP) can be used for the generation of high-resolution precipitation time series in unobserved catchments. A new approach is proposed to estimate parameters of a micro-canonical cascade model from ERA5-Land and COSMO-REA6 time series to generate hourly time series from daily observations.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrologic insights for the region</h3><div>The proposed parameter estimation approach leads to a general better representation of precipitation characteristics. For some stations the disaggregation based on COSMO-REA6 parameters even outperforms disaggregation results with parameters estimated from observed time series at these stations. Significant spatial patterns of PRP errors are identified which can help improving future PRP. The parameterization approach is not limited to the study region and can be used for precipitation generation in unobserved catchments, particularly in catchments with complex terrain which are usually not well represented by PRP.</div></div><div><h3>Plain language summary</h3><div>For many hydrological applications precipitation data with hourly resolution are required. Unfortunately, this kind of data exists often only for a few stations or only for short periods in the region of interest. Precipitation reanalysis data (PRP), which are produced by simulating the earth’s atmosphere over the last decades, are a promising solution. However, the quality of PRP depends on multiple factors and has to be tested for each region before application. In this study widely used ERA5-Land and COSMO-REA6 are tested for five rain gauges and 20 catchments in Slovenia. The validation of PRP with available observations for the study area indicated strong deviations. So instead of using the PRP directly for hydrological applications, a precipitation generator was parameterized with information from the PRP. Its validation shows a better representation of the observations, which suggests their usage for subsequent hydrological applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 102530"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144330436","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improving regional soil water-salt management by modeling soil freezing-thawing processes in a cold-arid irrigation district, upper Yellow River basin","authors":"Lvyang Xiong ,&nbsp;Yao Jiang ,&nbsp;Junyu Qi ,&nbsp;Guanhua Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102544","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102544","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>The Hetao Irrigation District (Hetao), a super-large cold-arid irrigation district located in the upper Yellow River basin, China.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>For cold-arid irrigation districts, understanding soil freezing-thawing processes is important for the reasonable management of non-growing season irrigation to improve soil water-salt conditions. This study aims to conduct regional agro-hydrological modeling with considering soil freezing-thawing processes in Hetao. The SWAT-AG model was adopted and enhanced by introducing a physically-based soil temperature module. Using the enhanced SWAT-AG, the agro-hydrological processes in Hetao were simulated and predicted under both the current autumn irrigation scheme (CAIS) and some water-saving autumn irrigation scenarios (WAIS).</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>The results proved that the enhanced SWAT-AG model effectively described the agro-hydrological processes during the soil freezing-thawing period. The simulated results of CAIS indicated that autumn irrigation was efficient in replenishing soil water and controlling soil salinity. The predictions from WAIS indicated that soil water content decreased, soil salt content increased, and groundwater depth became deeper compared to those under CAIS. A 20 % reduction in the current autumn irrigation amount did not compromise the effectiveness of autumn irrigation on soil water-salt and groundwater conditions, making it an appropriate autumn irrigation scheme for achieving both soil water-salt management and water saving in Hetao.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 102544"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144321125","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying turbidity dynamics in lake water using OLS regression: A landsat 8 OLI-based remote sensing approach","authors":"Imran Ahmad ,&nbsp;Amnah A. Alasgah ,&nbsp;Martina Zelenakova ,&nbsp;Mithas Ahmad Dar ,&nbsp;Minwagaw Damtie ,&nbsp;Marshet Berhan","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102523","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102523","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>Lake Tana, Ethiopia’s largest freshwater lake, has experienced a notable increase in water turbidity. This issue highlights the need for an in-depth understanding of how human activities and environmental changes are impacting its ecological balance. Addressing these turbidity challenges is crucial for safeguarding the sustainability of this vital resource.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>This research utilized Landsat 8 satellite imagery to examine turbidity levels in Lake Tana. Six bands from Landsat OLI—band 2, band 3, band 4, band 5, band 6, and band 7—were analyzed both individually and in combination. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression modeling was applied to investigate the relationships between these bands and in-situ turbidity data.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights</h3><div>Our findings reveal that the combined use of specific bands—particularly band 2 + band 5 - band 6—accounted for 87 % of the variance in turbidity as explained by the OLS regression model. Additionally, the Koenker- (Breusch-Pagan) statistic indicated no conflicting relationships (p &gt; 0.005) within the model, affirming its reliability. To further validate the model’s impartiality, the Jarque-Bera test was performed. Polynomial and exponential regression analyses were also conducted, leading to the identification of an optimal regression equation for predicting the spatial distribution of turbidity in Lake Tana.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 102523"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144321131","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Simulation and prediction of hydrological processes in Kaidu River Basin based on DHSVM model","authors":"Qiyue Zhang ,&nbsp;Changchun Xu ,&nbsp;Hongyu Wang ,&nbsp;Qian Wang ,&nbsp;Lin Li ,&nbsp;Yu Luo","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102537","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102537","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study Region</h3><div>The Kaidu River Basin in Xinjiang, China.</div></div><div><h3>Study Focus</h3><div>This study is focused on simulating future climate and underlying surface changes using CMIP6 climate model data and the PLUS model, and modeling historical and future runoff in the study region using the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM). The double cumulative curve method is applied to quantify the respective contributions of climate change and reservoir operations to runoff variation, and to reveal the mechanisms by which reservoir cluster regulation alters the spatiotemporal distribution of runoff.</div></div><div><h3>New Hydrological Insights</h3><div>Our findings reveal that the PLUS model exhibits high reliability in simulating land use in the study region, providing accurate land surface inputs for hydrological modeling. The performance of the DHSVM model was significantly improved through parameter optimization, with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) during the validation period increasing to 0.64 at the daily scale, and reaching 0.77 at the monthly scale. This confirms its suitability for simulating hydrological processes in small to medium-sized arid basins. The cascade reservoirs adopt a multi-stage winter-spring storage and summer-autumn coordinated release operation strategy, which shifts the natural runoff peak from June–July to July–August, effectively aligning peak water supply with agricultural water demand. Human activities, represented by reservoir operations, account for 20.30 % of the runoff variation, while climatic factors, primarily precipitation, contribute 79.70 %, highlighting the regulatory role of reservoirs in regional hydrological processes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 102537"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144321129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unveiling four decades of spatiotemporal climate trends in Texas (1981–2023)","authors":"M.Shahriar Sonet ,&nbsp;Yunuen Reygadas","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102539","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102539","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study Region</h3><div>Texas, U.S.A.</div></div><div><h3>Study Focus</h3><div>Understanding climate variability is critical in Texas, a region influenced by moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and arid air from the Mexican Plateau. We investigated trends in annual and monthly mean temperature, total precipitation, and mean specific humidity, along with their monthly variability, from 1981 to 2023. We applied the modified Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimator to PRISM and GridMET 4-km datasets.</div></div><div><h3>New Hydrological Insights for the Region</h3><div>The most pronounced changes occurred during early summer, with Central Texas experiencing precipitation declines up to 125.27 mm and Far West Texas exhibiting temperature increases up to 3.68°C and humidity decreases up to 2.33 g/kg. A northwest–southeast gradient in humidity trends was observed, with declines across the Panhandle and increases near the Coast. Variability trends were more spatially and temporally extensive. Temperature variability increased from spring through fall by up to 1.19°C, particularly in Far West Texas. Precipitation variability intensified in May, August, and September, with swings up to 320 mm, especially in Central, Eastern, and Southern Texas. Humidity variability peaked in July and August in North Central and East Texas (up to 0.63 g/kg), while South Texas showed consistent declines. This reveals a growing climatic divide between humid and arid regions and underscores the need for adjusting cropcalendars, upgrading stormwater-systems, and expanding irrigation-infrastructure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 102539"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144330434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An alternative approach using electrical well logging for estimating porosity and hydraulic conductivity in volcanic aquifers of the upper Awash River sub-basin, Ethiopia","authors":"A. Muauz ,&nbsp;B. Berehanu ,&nbsp;H. Bedru","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102547","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102547","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>Upper Awash River sub-basin, Ethiopia</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>This study introduces an alternative method for characterizing volcanic aquifers using electrical well logging to estimate porosity and hydraulic conductivity. Integrating resistivity data with Archie’s law and the Kozeny–Carman equation, it provides a practical approach for evaluating aquifer properties in complex terrains. Analysis involved data from 335 wells, including resistivity logs, gamma logs, 1230 water quality samples, and 290 wells with lithological and pumping test records, addressing challenges faced by conventional techniques in volcanic regions.</div></div><div><h3>New insights for the region</h3><div>The study revealed apparent and intrinsic formation factors for basalt, tuff, and ignimbrite, which were applied to the Humble equation to estimate porosity, yielding values between 10.02 % and 23.14 %. Hydraulic conductivity, calculated using the Kozeny–Carman equation, ranged from 2.4 to 33.1 m/day. Validation through conventional pumping tests across seven sub-regions demonstrated strong alignment, with hydraulic conductivity values of 5.3 m/day (A), 2.8 m/day (B), 33.1 m/day (C), 4.6 m/day (D), 2.4 m/day (E), 8.1 m/day (F), and 6.2 m/day (G). Pumping test ranges of 0.2–63.6 m/day further corroborated the findings. This study underscores the potential of resistivity well logging as a cost-effective, efficient alternative for characterizing hydraulic properties in volcanic aquifers. It offers critical new insights for sustainable groundwater management in geologically complex regions, providing a replicable framework for similar settings worldwide.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 102547"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144330435","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Seasonal variability changes and trends in minimum discharge for Western Balkan rivers","authors":"Igor Leščešen ,&nbsp;Slobodan Gnjato ,&nbsp;Duško Vujačić ,&nbsp;Ana M. Petrović ,&nbsp;Ivan Radevski","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102529","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102529","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>This study focuses on the Western Balkans, specifically analyzing river basins across Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, and North Macedonia.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>The objective is to investigate long-term trends in minimum river discharges from 1961 to 2020, with an emphasis on low-flow events and their seasonal dynamics. Minimum discharge magnitudes were categorized as M1 (lower) and M2 (higher) based on the 1961–1990 baseline period. Seasonal Mann–Kendall trend tests were applied to detect significant changes in low-flow frequency and intensity across a representative network of gauging stations.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>The results reveal a statistically significant increase in the frequency of M1 low-flow events during summer, indicating more severe low-flow conditions. This trend is especially prominent across central and southern stations. Winter season analyses also suggest rising minimum discharge values, albeit with spatial variability. Conversely, M2 events, indicative of relatively higher minimum flows, show a consistent and statistically significant decline across nearly all stations during summer. These opposing trends reflect a regional intensification of summer low-flow conditions and a possible shift in the seasonal flow regime. The findings underscore the growing vulnerability of Western Balkan river systems to hydrological droughts, likely driven by climate change and local watershed pressures. These insights hold practical relevance for water resource management, highlighting the urgency of adaptive strategies for drought mitigation and ecological flow preservation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 102529"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144313457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effects of irrigation and canal networks on groundwater–land surface interactions in the middle Heihe River Basin, China","authors":"Zheng Lu ,&nbsp;Shuyan Peng ,&nbsp;Tingting Wu ,&nbsp;Jiaxin Lei ,&nbsp;Jiaxing Wei ,&nbsp;Xiaofan Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102532","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102532","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>Heihe River Basin, a typical endorheic river basin in northwest China.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>Agriculture is the highest water-consuming sector, utilizing approximately 70 % of available water resources, predominantly for irrigation purposes. However, limited studies have explicitly diagnosed the role of agriculture managements (such as irrigation and canal networks) on the water–energy cycles of the agriculture system. This study presents a suite of numerical experiments to analyze the effects of irrigation and canal networks on groundwater–land surface interactions using a 3D, fully integrated hydrologic model. The model has been validated against both observations and spatially distributed products, confirming its reliability in simulating regional hydrologic dynamics.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrologic insight for the region</h3><div>The findings reveal that irrigation expanded the shallow water table depths (WTD) zone by 30 % and increased summer and fall streamflow by approximately 10 %. Additionally, irrigation substantially reduced soil temperature at WTD of 0.01–10 m (i.e., cooling effect), altering the strong correlations between water table depth and latent heat flux. Moreover, irrigation canals heightened streamflow peaks, and increased spatial variability in surface heat flux differences, particularly in sensible heat flux, even causing localized reversals. This study provides scientific evidence in understanding the role of agriculture activities in local water resources management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 102532"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144313458","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Drought–flood abrupt alternation events increase soil nitrogen loss via surface runoff in a typical grain base in China","authors":"Wuxia Bi ,&nbsp;Yong Hu ,&nbsp;Baisha Weng ,&nbsp;Dawei Zhang ,&nbsp;Fan Wang ,&nbsp;Wenqing Lin ,&nbsp;Weiqi Wang ,&nbsp;Guoqiang Dong ,&nbsp;Denghua Yan","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102543","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102543","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>Northern Anhui Plain, China.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>This study analyzed the nitrogen (N) mitigation (N storage in soil, plants, and surface runoff) under drought–flood abrupt alternation (DFAA) in summer maize farmland systems based on field experiments. Soil N loss due to DFAA in the summer maize planting area of the Northern Anhui Plain was simulated based on the critical threshold obtained from the field experiments.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>The experimental results showed that DFAA events reduced soil N storage and plant N storage by 14.9 % and 54.1 % compared to the control systems, respectively, while N storage in the water component of surface runoff in the DFAA treatments was 54.1 % higher. Numerical simulations revealed that the proportions of average annual soil N loss in topsoil were 14.98–19.58 % from 1964 to 2017 and 10.22–22.75 % from 2020 to 2050 in the study area. The highest average annual soil N loss shifted from the southwestern to the central and southeastern Northern Anhui Plain. The highest soil N loss in the hypothetical natural scenario was 49.0 % and 46.7 % lower compared to historical and future scenarios, respectively. The findings indicate that DFAA has significantly negative impacts on water quality. The quantitative analysis provides a reference for developing targeted regulation measures for the Northern Anhui Plain facing compound extreme events.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 102543"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144321130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}