{"title":"Spatiotemporal assessment and climate teleconnections of drought in Northeast China (2001–2023) using a machine-learning-based meteorological composite index","authors":"Yanran Qin , Zhijie Zhang , Guihong Wang , Jintong Ren , Wanchang Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102693","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102693","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>Northeast China (NEC)</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>This study proposes a machine learning framework for spatiotemporal drought assessment in NEC (2001–2023), integrating the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) and the Meteorological Composite Index (MCI). Using 14 drought-related predictors at 0.0059° spatial resolution, the model achieved strong predictive performance (R² = 0.8942; drought level consistency = 91.26 %). Drought characteristics were analyzed through frequency, intensity, and centroid metrics. Drought-climate teleconnections were explored using lagged correlation and wavelet methods.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>Mild droughts predominated (78.47 %), with clear seasonality peaking in March–April. A significant wetting trend (p < 0.05) was observed across 84.11 % of the region, though persistent hotspots remained in the southwest, likely due to rain shadow effects (R² = 0.67 with elevation). The drought centroid showed a northward shift before 2010 and a southward shift afterward, suggesting decadal-scale reversals. The North Pacific Index (NPI) was the leading climate driver, with strong coherence at 10–15-month scales and a 5-month lead (r = -0.64, p < 0.01), supporting early warning potential. Multivariate climate indices outperformed single indices in explaining drought variability, with the trivariate combination of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific–North America pattern (PNA), and NPI providing the highest explanatory power. These results provide new insights into drought evolution and climate-drought interactions in NEC.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"61 ","pages":"Article 102693"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144827824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Toward optimal rainfall for flood prediction in headwater basins – improving soil moisture initialization to close the water budget within observational uncertainty","authors":"Mochi Liao, Ana P. Barros","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102700","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102700","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>28 headwater basins along the latitudinal range of the Appalachian Mountains across diverse hydroclimatic and physiographic regions.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>The objective of this manuscript is to address errors in the initialization of hydrologic models by introducing a physics-based methodology to correct soil moisture (i.e., Initial Condition Correction, ICC) in a manner consistent with the Inverse Rainfall Correction (IRC) methodology proposed by Liao and Barros (2022) to improve Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE). The coupled IRC-ICC framework is demonstrated using a high-resolution hydrologic model for 215 flood-producing events from 2008 to 2024 in 28 headwater basins in the Appalachians.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>Flood simulations using IRC-ICC QPE, and uncorrected QPE products show a median Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE, calculated at 15-minute intervals) of 0.86 versus 0.19, reduction of flood peak timing errors with 90 % versus 20 % of events having peak timing errors within 60 min, and median flood volume errors of 2 % versus −17 %. While the average total precipitation shows a modest increase of 6 % due to ICC, the most significant impact is on spatial variance and on the average maximum rainfall that increases by 68 %. This study establishes the coupled IRC-ICC as a robust general framework for orographic QPE correction and provides a pathway to characterizing and modeling soil moisture uncertainty ahead of extreme precipitation events at high spatial resolution O(100 m).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"61 ","pages":"Article 102700"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144827822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Assaad Kassem , Ahmed Sefelnasr , Abdel Azim Ebraheem , Luqman Ali , Faisal Baig , Mohsen Sherif
{"title":"Machine learning-based prediction and classification of seawater intrusion in the hyper-arid coastal aquifer of Fujairah, UAE","authors":"Assaad Kassem , Ahmed Sefelnasr , Abdel Azim Ebraheem , Luqman Ali , Faisal Baig , Mohsen Sherif","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102664","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102664","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>This study focuses on an unconfined coastal aquifer located in the Emirate of Fujairah, United Arab Emirates—a hyper-arid region where the coastal aquifer is vulnerable to seawater intrusion (SWI), posing a threat to groundwater quality.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>Fifteen machine learning (ML) algorithms were evaluated to predict and classify total dissolved solids (TDS) as an indicator of SWI. The models were trained using six hydrogeological parameters: rainfall, hydraulic head, distance from the coastline, aquifer saturated thickness, hydraulic conductivity, and specific yield. Model performance was assessed for both prediction and classification tasks. LightGBM yielded the highest prediction accuracy (R² = 0.9574), followed by CatBoost (R² = 0.9565) and XGBoost (R² = 0.9517). For classification, CatBoost and Gradient Boosting achieved the best performance with 97.6 % accuracy and AUC = 0.9986. The top-performing prediction models were utilized to derive empirical formulas for estimating groundwater TDS, informed by variable importance analysis of the six hydrogeological parameters.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>Variable importance analysis highlighted hydraulic head and distance from the coast as key predictors of TDS, consistent with established SWI mechanisms. The study demonstrates that ML can be an effective alternative to traditional modeling approaches in data-limited environments, offering a robust SWI assessment. The developed empirical equations provide practical tools for local groundwater TDS estimation. Future work should address temporal dynamics and salinity vertical distribution patterns.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"61 ","pages":"Article 102664"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144827823","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Natalie K. Day , Patrick C. Longley , Daniel R. Wise , Morgan McDonnell
{"title":"Effects of climate on temporal variability in streamflow and salinity in the Upper Colorado River Basin","authors":"Natalie K. Day , Patrick C. Longley , Daniel R. Wise , Morgan McDonnell","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102672","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102672","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study Region</h3><div>The Upper Colorado River Basin, a critical water source for more than 40 million people in the western United States.</div></div><div><h3>Study Focus</h3><div>Potential decreasing streamflow and elevated salinity concentrations threaten this resource. Climate variability has a large and well-studied effect on streamflow in the basin; however, the effect on salinity loading is less understood. This study investigates how snowpack dynamics, precipitation volume, and air temperature affect both streamflow and salinity at the basin scale from water years 1986–2021.</div></div><div><h3>New Hydrological Insights for the Region</h3><div>Climate variables explained 54 % of streamflow variability and 40 % of salinity variability across the basin. Both streamflow and salinity yields have declined in response to climate variability, but their response occurs on different timescales. Streamflow is more sensitive to snowpack, whereas salinity yields respond more strongly to antecedent precipitation. The delayed response of salinity yields may obscure the effects of both climate variability and salinity control measures. Residual analysis identified subbasins where the climate-salinity relation deviated from basin-wide patterns, suggesting that possible anthropogenic or other watershed processes may influence salinity loading in these areas. These novel findings underscore the importance of accounting for climate variability when evaluating long-term trends in streamflow and salinity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"61 ","pages":"Article 102672"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144826483","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hikimat Saadi , Djim M.L. Diongue , Andrew Ogilvie , Didier Martin , Oumy Tall , Johann Bellanger , Abib Ndiaye , Serigne Faye
{"title":"Seasonal variations and drivers of water quality in semi-arid freshwater lakes: multivariate spatial analysis in Lake Guiers, Senegal","authors":"Hikimat Saadi , Djim M.L. Diongue , Andrew Ogilvie , Didier Martin , Oumy Tall , Johann Bellanger , Abib Ndiaye , Serigne Faye","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102695","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102695","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>Lake Guiers, Senegal, West Africa</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>Water quality degradation from agriculture threatens freshwater lakes worldwide. This study investigated the spatiotemporal hydrochemical dynamics of Lake Guiers, which supplies 50 % of Dakar’s drinking water, and examined natural and anthropogenic drivers of water mineralization. The approach combined multivariate statistics, hydrogeochemical analysis (Piper, Gibbs), and Water Quality Index (WQI) assessments of samples collected over five seasonal campaigns (2022–2023) as well as hydroclimatic analysis. Seasonal variations and spatial gradients of 22 parameters (physicochemical, major ions, biological, heavy metals) were explored to inform effective freshwater management strategies.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>Multidisciplinary approach highlights impact of intensified agriculture and inflows on spatiotemporal variations in water quality. WQI values categorized 67–87 % of samples as poor water quality, with conditions worsening during the rainy season. Several parameters including heavy metals, cyanobacteria, chlorophyll-a and turbidity exceeded WHO standards. Temporal variations were influenced by evaporation during the dry season, agricultural discharge, and the combination of runoff and inflow waters during the rainy season. Sediment loaded inflow from the Taouey canal notably leads to greater turbidity and suspended particulate matter in the north of the lake, while runoff and associated mobility of nutrients favour cyanobacteria proliferation during the rainy season. Targeted interventions to reduce pollution sources and continuous monitoring of transitory drainage and runoff in selected hotspots are required to preserve this vital semi-arid freshwater lake.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"61 ","pages":"Article 102695"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144828569","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sheng Ye , Jingkai Wang , Jiyu Li , Yifan Chai , Shihan Dai , Feng Wang , Qihua Ran
{"title":"Revegetation impacts on the flow characteristics in the Loess Plateau","authors":"Sheng Ye , Jingkai Wang , Jiyu Li , Yifan Chai , Shihan Dai , Feng Wang , Qihua Ran","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102654","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102654","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>Loess Plateau, China.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>Revegetation has been one of the most effective nature-based solution for carbon sequestration. However, its impacts on local water resources vary across places, and is especially controversial in arid/semi-arid regions. This study analyzed spatial and temporal variability of flow characteristics, including baseflow index (BFI), flow duration curves (TFDC, FFDC, SFDC), and recession curves, from 85 catchments in the Loess Plateau (LP), an arid/semi-arid region with substantial revegetation activities for over 20 years.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>Our results suggested that while the baseflow index (BFI) had strong correlations with the shape parameter and scale parameter of total flow duration curves (TFDC), fast flow duration curves (FFDC), and slow flow duration curves (SFDC) before revegetation, its influence on fast flow disappeared afterwards, indicating substantial change in fast flow events. Event scale analysis of the recession curves suggested more stable recharge after revegetation, but the influences on the nonlinearity were complicated. Besides the impacts of climate, the elevated vertical heterogeneity in soil hydraulic property due to revegetation is likely to contribute to the change in nonlinearity of recessions. The contrasting profile of hydraulic property could enhance infiltration and generate shallow storage during rainfall event, resulting in a new runoff generation mechanism, the saturation excess runoff. This potential emergence of saturation excess runoff could be one of the explanations of the change in recession nonlinearity. More comprehensive field measurements are needed to evaluate the vegetation impacts to examine the hypothesis of the shift in runoff generation mechanism. Our findings could provide more comprehensive understandings for the revegetation impacts on local water cycles in arid/semi-arid regions for sustainable water resource management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"61 ","pages":"Article 102654"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144809394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Rainfall temporal variability-oriented optimization of urban water resources allocation","authors":"Dan Li, Zhen Liu, Dong Wang, Xin Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102694","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102694","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>Beijing City, China.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>The temporal variability of precipitation induces significant spatiotemporal fluctuations and uncertainties in water availability and demand, rendering conventional annual water allocation strategies inadequate<em>.</em> To address this issue, this study developed a rainfall temporal variability-oriented optimization method for allocating urban water resources. The framework comprised three key components: (i) analysis of rainfall temporal distribution characteristics using long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network; (ii) temporal disaggregation of annual water demand into monthly scales based on historical averages, with coordinated multi-source supply through adaptive priority adjustment; (iii) development of a multi-objective mathematical model solved using the Improved Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (INSGA-II).</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>The results demonstrated strategic monthly adjustments in water allocation priorities across the four optimized schemes, leading to shifts in the annual contributions from various water sources. For example, during high precipitation periods, groundwater withdrawals declined, while contributions from surface water and non-conventional water increased accordingly. Compared to the baseline year, optimized schemes improved economic efficiency, with water consumption reductions of 0.35 × 10<sup>8</sup> m<sup>3</sup>, 0.55 × 10<sup>8</sup> m<sup>3</sup>, 0.70 × 10<sup>8</sup> m<sup>3</sup>, and 0.68 × 10<sup>8</sup> m<sup>3</sup>, respectively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"61 ","pages":"Article 102694"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144809479","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
M.A. Lisa Davis , Ray Lombardi , Matthew D. Gage , Glenn Tootle , Tammy Rittenour , Alexander C. Quimby
{"title":"High and dry: A ∼300-year record of hydrologic extremes from the French Broad River in the southeastern U.S.","authors":"M.A. Lisa Davis , Ray Lombardi , Matthew D. Gage , Glenn Tootle , Tammy Rittenour , Alexander C. Quimby","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102673","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102673","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>French Broad River Basin, southeastern United States</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>We combined fluvial and dendro-based paleoflood hydrologic data with instrumented data to understand long-term changes in extreme flow events.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>Droughts and extreme floods are underrepresented in streamflow records because of short instrumentation records. This study is among the first to develop a centennial-scale record (1734–2024) of hydrologic extreme events in the southeastern U.S. Interannual and interdecadal variability of extreme floods and droughts was observed. This suggests that hydrologic volatility is a persistent pattern in basins where precipitation is heavily influenced by the Bermuda High (North Atlantic subtropical high) and El Niño Southern Oscillation. Landfalling hurricanes generated some of the largest floods in the record. A late spring flood in 1791 CE, however, surpassed the magnitude of all other floods (0.0025 annual exceedance probability), including the 2024 CE Hurricane Helene flood (0.02 annual exceedance probability). Flood frequency and magnitude has declined since the 1800s, however. In contrast, drought severity has increased in the last century. Taken as a whole, these findings suggest flood frequency analyses reliant on floods-of-record from the last century to represent flood extremes may be underestimating flood risks, and droughts and extreme floods both occur on annual and decadal timescales, setting the stage for frequent sequencing of hydrologic extremes in the southeastern U.S.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"61 ","pages":"Article 102673"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144826482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dimaghi Schwamback , Abderraman R. Amorim Brandão , Ronny Berndtsson , Edson Wendland , Magnus Persson
{"title":"Assessment of water fluxes under the dual threat of changes in land cover and climate variability in the Brazilian Cerrado biome","authors":"Dimaghi Schwamback , Abderraman R. Amorim Brandão , Ronny Berndtsson , Edson Wendland , Magnus Persson","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102699","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102699","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>The Brazilian wooded Cerrado biome is a tropical savanna, over 50 % of which has been converted to agricultural land.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>We evaluated changes in water balance variables (surface flux, evaporation, soil-water storage, infiltration, groundwater recharge, and root uptake) due to climate change. The study included (i) calibration and validation of the Hydrus model through observations of soil moisture in experimental plots covered with sugarcane and pasture compared to natural forest during six years and (ii) hydrological predictions by combining Hydrus with projections from climate models (10 CMIP6 models under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios).</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>We tested different parameter combinations during calibration and found that for sugarcane and pasture, saturated soil water content, parameter N in the soil retention function, and saturated hydraulic conductivity were the most sensitive ones to improve calibration. The validated models demonstrated good performance, with a mass balance error of less than 0.9 %. The results indicate that climate change will affect certain water fluxes more than others, in a hierarchical (bottom-top) sequence: soil-water storage, bottom flux, infiltration, surface flux, evaporation, and root uptake. For example, root uptake is expected to increase by 26 % in sugarcane and pasture crops at the end of 2100, pressuring water regional demand. Lastly, land cover change currently poses a greater risk to water fluxes than projected climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"61 ","pages":"Article 102699"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144781497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The potential effect of climate-change induced consecutive dry or wet years on the freshwater lens of a barrier island (Langeoog, Germany)","authors":"Lena Thissen, Janek Greskowiak, Gudrun Massmann","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102676","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102676","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>Barrier island Langeoog at the German North Sea coast</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>Due to climate change it is predicted that extreme weather events such as droughts and floods will occur more often in future. Since such events strongly influence the groundwater recharge, they will likely affect the freshwater volume on many small barrier islands. This is critical where freshwater lenses are the only source of drinking water. Groundwater abstraction for drinking water supply also influences the freshwater volume. To investigate the potential near-future climate change impacts, the influence of consecutive dry or wet years on the freshwater lens combined with several pumping scenarios is calculated using a density-dependent groundwater flow and transport model. Chosen sub-annual recharge and pumping rates are based on values from the past and, therefore, considered realistic for the island.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>Five extremely dry years would shrink the volume of the freshwater lens by 20 %. Extremely wet years cause flooding of large areas in the island interior. As the water table adjusts fast to new recharge conditions, flooding within the second winter is almost as severe as in the fifth winter. Tides and storm surges at the mesotidal coast have a great impact on the freshwater lens by constraining the area where fresh groundwater develops and affecting the water table in the interior of the island.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"61 ","pages":"Article 102676"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144781516","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}