Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies最新文献

{"title":"Effects of microclimate on soil moisture distribution in complex topography at the small watershed scale in the Anning River Region, Southwest China","authors":"Yafeng Lu,&nbsp;Wenguang Chen,&nbsp;Xiaoqing Chen,&nbsp;Zhengyang Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102381","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102381","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>Reshuihe watershed, located in the Anning River region of Southwest China.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>This research meticulously monitors the spatiotemporal variations in soil moisture and climatic factors within the watershed. Its primary aim is to unravel the complex interplay and predominant influences of topo-climatic factors on soil moisture distribution across varying elevational gradients, aspects, and topographic positions.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the study region</h3><div>The results demonstrate that soil moisture levels increase with elevation during both dry and wet seasons, albeit with nonlinear rates of change. Detailed analysis reveals that soil moisture in the study area is primarily determined by topographic position, with aspect and elevation having secondary influences. Notably, the difference between dew point temperature and soil surface temperature, along with evapotranspiration, emerged as critical factors influencing soil moisture at mid- and low elevations during the wet season. Conversely, during the dry season, evapotranspiration and wind speed were identified as the principal factors affecting soil moisture across most elevations. This investigation advances the integration of topographical factors—position, aspect, and elevation—with essential physical processes such as condensation and evapotranspiration, delineating their pivotal roles in influencing soil moisture within mountainous landscapes. Additionally, it highlights the limitations of Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) simulations in accurately capturing elevation-specific moisture variations in such terrains, pointing towards critical areas for improvement in soil moisture simulation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"59 ","pages":"Article 102381"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143816726","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Risk spatial distribution and economic loss assessment for parallel reservoir group dam-break floods: A case study of southwest river basin in China","authors":"Jinjun Zhou ,&nbsp;Chunxin Sun ,&nbsp;Jiahong Liu ,&nbsp;Ruirui Sun ,&nbsp;Songyun Jin ,&nbsp;Chenrui Qin ,&nbsp;Hao Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102364","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102364","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>Zhaotong City, located in the Jinsha River Watershed in southwest China, features a developed river network, mountainous terrain, and significant elevation changes. The region experiences a low-latitude plateau monsoon climate, with rainfall concentrated in the wet season.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>This study uses a 2D hydrodynamic model and a dam-break flood model to assess flood risks of parallel reservoirs and quantify direct economic losses under different scenarios. It also explores the causes of risk and loss variations across scenarios.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>Differences in dam site locations and downstream topography result in significant variations in inundation areas, with extreme cases differing by nearly twofold. Dam-break flood losses depend on inundation extent, water depth, and land value. Variations in high-value land inundation, such as residential, commercial, and industrial areas, are the main reason for differences in direct economic losses. The fatality area of a dam-break flood from parallel reservoirs is smaller than the sum of individual reservoirs due to river confluence effects, delaying the flood's arrival at the city center. Overall, parallel reservoir dam-break risks are influenced by multiple factors, requiring case-specific analysis rather than simple risk summation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"59 ","pages":"Article 102364"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143808784","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Characteristics of the spatiotemporal differences in snowmelt phenology in the Northern Hemisphere","authors":"Xiaoyu Li ,&nbsp;Haoming Fan","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102358","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102358","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>The Northern Hemisphere.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>Snowmelt processes are critical components of the hydrological cycle, significantly influenced by climate change. This study analyzes spring-summer snowmelt phenology and rates (1991–2022) using ERA5-Land data, focusing on spatiotemporal trends in snowmelt duration, rate heterogeneity, and drivers under climate change.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>The snowmelt period length (LSMD) shortens significantly (−0.129 day/year), notably in mid-high latitude North America and temperate Eurasia, while permanent snow zones show prolonged LSMD from intensified ablation. Snowmelt rates exhibit marked spatial heterogeneity: latitude-dependent dynamics peak in temperate-subarctic transition zones (55°-65°N), altitude-driven rates decline below 2800 m but rebound above 3400 m, and longitudinal patterns highlight higher rates in high-longitude regions. Maritime (MT) undergoes the most rapid and prolonged melting, contrasting with slower rates in forested/agricultural areas due to vegetation interactions. Dominantly low-intensity snowmelt prevails, yet transitions to higher intensities are pronounced at 45°-60°N. Regional “mean-extreme decoupling” implies deep snowpack energy storage-release mechanisms. These findings reveal complex, spatially divergent snowmelt responses to warming, critical for predicting hydrological and water resource impacts across the hemisphere.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"59 ","pages":"Article 102358"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143808783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Seasonal water and salt cycling in the Great Salt Lake after opening the new causeway breach","authors":"Diana Dunn ,&nbsp;Brian M. Crookston ,&nbsp;Colin Phillips ,&nbsp;Som Dutta ,&nbsp;Bethany Neilson","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102332","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102332","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>The Great Salt Lake, the largest saltwater lake in the western hemisphere, located in Utah, USA.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>A railroad causeway divides the Great Salt Lake into north and south arms and significantly alters natural lake dynamics. A new opening in the causeway, referred to as the New Breach, was completed in December 2016 to manage exchange flows between the north and south arms and control salinity primarily in the south arm. Salinity data have been collected independently by multiple stakeholders using different monitoring techniques and instrumentation. To overcome inconsistent data and provide a holistic record of salinity conditions, new methods were developed for curating and compiling all relevant disparate salinity data into a daily representative time series with quantified uncertainties for the south arm of the lake.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>This dataset was used to characterize the altered spatial and temporal patterns of salinity within the south arm during varied hydrologic periods while considering the effects of the New Breach. Results, contextualized by data uncertainties, inform lake management by showing that the New Breach exchange flows influence lake salinity, but the primary controls are related to the balance between river inflows and evaporation. While considering dataset limitations, insights are provided regarding how monitoring at the Great Salt Lake may be improved to better support active lake management efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"59 ","pages":"Article 102332"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143808782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatiotemporal evaluation and impact of superficial factors on surface water quality for drinking using innovative techniques in Mahanadi River Basin, Odisha, India","authors":"Abhijeet Das","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102366","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102366","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Study Region: Mahanadi River Basin, Odisha&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;em&gt;Study Focus:&lt;/em&gt; Surface water is the primary source of water supply. So, complex decision-making procedures and management techniques are required to optimize between information needs and information obtained from water quality monitoring networks. With rapid urbanization and population growth, the water of river Mahanadi, Odisha, is deteriorating. The study determined the water quality (WQ) index and its spatial distribution of pollutants. For its purpose, by employing innovative techniques, such as Methods Based on Removal Effects of Criteria (MEREC/Me) Water Quality Index (WQI), Multi-Criteria Decision-Making analysis namely Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS) modeling and Machine Learning approaches entitled as Random Forest (RF) technique, the present study identifies locations, which have encountered the highest influence of cumulative factors such as discharge of sewage, lowering of water table, dilution and surface runoff, which lead to water quality variability in a water body over a monitoring period. In this investigation, water samples were collected from 16 different locations along the stretch and 21 parameters were analyzed for a period of 4 years (2020–2024), taken in monsoon period only.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;New hydrological insights for the Region&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;From the results from physicochemical parameters, most of the samples are characterized as having an alkaline nature. More than 62.5% of the examined samples is above the allowable threshold of TKN, and a high concentration of Cl&lt;sup&gt;-&lt;/sup&gt; and NO&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;sup&gt;-&lt;/sup&gt; at SN-(9), highlighted the impact of man-made factors, including fertilizers used in agriculture and industrial effluents. Additionally, geogenic contaminant F&lt;sup&gt;-&lt;/sup&gt; at SN-(16), was above the WHO-permissible threshold of &gt;0.9 mg/L. It was found that the typical cation concentrations were in the order of Fe&lt;sup&gt;2+&lt;/sup&gt; &gt; B&lt;sup&gt;+&lt;/sup&gt; and the anions in the order of abundance were Cl&lt;sup&gt;-&lt;/sup&gt; &gt; SO&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;sup&gt;2-&lt;/sup&gt; &gt; NO&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;sup&gt;-&lt;/sup&gt; &gt; F&lt;sup&gt;-&lt;/sup&gt;. Also, geospatial analysis and IDW interpolation have been utilized to produce geospatial maps that accurately represent the best monitoring sites that had the greatest fluctuations in their water quality during the observation period in terms of physicochemical characteristics. Water quality at all sampling locations was expressed in terms of Me-WQI. The value of all sampling sites varied between 41 and 396, indicating excellent to unsuitable water category. The principal cause of WQ deterioration at poor/unsuitable sites is because of domestic waste water and agricultural runoff, that causes adulteration in the river’s water quality. A multi-objective decision-making tool such as ARAS, was used to rank the places according to their respective degrees of pollution. The obtained value (U&lt;sub&gt;i&lt;/sub&gt;) extracted from 20 physicochemical parameters and varied betwee","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"59 ","pages":"Article 102366"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143799318","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Long-term hydroclimate trends in the Great Lakes basin: Are there hotspots of regional change?","authors":"Satbyeol Shin ,&nbsp;Andrew D. Gronewold ,&nbsp;Lauren M. Fry ,&nbsp;Yi Hong ,&nbsp;David Cannon ,&nbsp;Ayumi Fujisaki-Manome","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102347","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102347","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study Region</h3><div>The Laurentian Great Lakes basin</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>This study analyzed key hydroclimate components across the entire Laurentian Great Lakes basin, one of the largest freshwater basins on Earth and home to roughly 20% of all fresh, unfrozen surface water. The hydroclimate components analyzed included surface air temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration (ET), snow water equivalent (SWE), runoff, and surface soil moisture from 1951 to 2020. Hydrological variables were simulated using regional customization of the Weather Research and Forecasting hydrological model (WRF-Hydro), and changes in the annual magnitude and seasonal variability (i.e. seasonality) of all variables were assessed.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>Our findings reveal significant spatial and temporal variations in hydroclimate variables across the basin. The Great Lakes basin is experiencing noteworthy changes in hydroclimate variables, including pronounced rises in surface air temperature, ET, and runoff (low flow), as well as declines in SWE. The distinct spatial patterns of changes in magnitude and seasonality are identified throughout the region. For instance, the Superior basin exhibits unique hydrological patterns, including an earlier peak in SWE and decreased high flow, both of which are influenced by its unique climatic and geographical conditions. This long-term analysis of hydroclimate trends provides valuable insights into historical hydrological changes and their implications for future conditions in the Great Lakes basin, emphasizing the need for localized studies and targeted management strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"59 ","pages":"Article 102347"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143799317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effect of forest conversion on soil water infiltration in the Dabie mountainous area, China","authors":"Yun Zhu ,&nbsp;Lei Sun ,&nbsp;Abdul Hakim Jamshidi ,&nbsp;Xia Liu ,&nbsp;Yiling Zheng ,&nbsp;Zhaofei Fan","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102351","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102351","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>The Dabie mountainous area, China.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>Soil infiltration is a hydrological process dramatically affected by land use/cover changes. Soil infiltration characteristics, litter, root traits, and soil properties were monitored and the contributions of litter, root traits and soil properties on soil infiltrability were evaluated under <em>Castanea mollissima forest (CMF), Castanea mollissima-tea inter-planting forest (CMTF), Camellia oleifera forest (COF), and Camellia oleifera-tea inter-planting forest (COTF), and miscellaneous woody forest (MWF, as the control).</em></div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>Significant differences were found in soil water infiltration following the change from natural to economic forest (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05). Soil initial infiltration rate (<em>IIR</em>), average infiltration (<em>AIR</em>), and steady infiltration rate (<em>SIR</em>) decreased by 35.65–61.59 %, 55.98–76.17 %, and 46.34–69.46 %, respectively. Soil water infiltration was more susceptible to soil properties than litter characteristics or root traits. Clay content was the primary factor affecting soil water infiltration. However, land use and management may drastically change litter and root trait conditions, which regulate soil properties, especially clay content. Therefore, management of slopping economic forests should improve the condition of litter and root traits to reduce soil and water loss hazards.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"59 ","pages":"Article 102351"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143792463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Characteristics of propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought under natural conditions in the Haihe River Basin of China: Time, probability, and threshold","authors":"Anzhou Zhao ,&nbsp;Wei Zhang ,&nbsp;Lidong Zou ,&nbsp;Sen Cao ,&nbsp;Yunfeng Yue ,&nbsp;Qirilatu Sa","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102359","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102359","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>The Haihe River Basin (HHRB), China.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>Understanding the propagation characteristics of droughts from meteorological to hydrological stages is crucial for effective early warning systems. However, these characteristics (time, probability, and threshold) remain unexplored under natural conditions. This study aims to fill this gap by studying the propagation characteristics of drought from the meteorological phase to the hydrological phase under natural conditions. Utilizes the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) to analyze meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Haihe River Basin (HHRB), China, using data from 1981 to 2018. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient, copula probability models, and Bayesian causal frameworks are employed to investigate drought propagation characteristics.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>The study shows significant regional differences in the propagation time from meteorological to hydrological droughts, with shorter times in the northwest and longer times in the southeast. Additionally, the duration of droughts in spring and winter is generally longer. The drought propagation time has shown a significant increasing trend from 1981 to 2018, especially in the central and western regions. The probability of meteorological drought triggering hydrological drought increases with the severity level, and the thresholds for meteorological drought differ across various levels of hydrological drought. These findings highlight the importance of considering regional differences, seasonal variations, and the impact of climate change on drought trends in drought warning systems and water resource management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"59 ","pages":"Article 102359"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143792404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Runoff generation in ephemeral streams of the Virgin Islands: The case of Salt River, St. Croix","authors":"David A. Hensley ,&nbsp;Thorsten Knappenberger ,&nbsp;Brittany V. Lancellotti ,&nbsp;Eve Brantley ,&nbsp;Joey N. Shaw ,&nbsp;Mariana Dobre ,&nbsp;James R. Lindner","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102372","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102372","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>The island of St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands, Lesser Antilles.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>Small islands worldwide have limited water resources and an increased need to understand the mechanisms underlying island water budgets, but they also usually lack adequate data. Our study focused on the Salt River watershed on the island of St. Croix in the Virgin Islands, which is an ephemeral stream network comprising both volcanic and carbonate hydrogeology. We used hydrometeorological and soil moisture data at upstream and downstream sites (chosen by geospatial topographic and soil information) to characterize thresholds for runoff generation and to analyze the disrupted connectivity of the ephemeral stream network.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>We found evidence of runoff thresholds, which align with work in similar catchments elsewhere. Connectivity from headwaters to lowland areas was uncommon, and saturation-excess overland flows and subsurface stormflow appeared to dominate runoff events. The upstream subcatchment (with volcanic hydrogeology) was much more responsive (runoff coefficient = 0.237) than the entire catchment (with partly carbonate hydrogeology; runoff coefficient = 0.086). The transition between these hydrogeologic zones may disrupt connectivity and play an important role in aquifer recharge, while buffering the marine environment from water quality problems. For resource managers, this study offers the possibility of identifying sensitive groundwater recharge zones, and provides insight into the frequency of ridge-to-reef flow events.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"59 ","pages":"Article 102372"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143792469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatiotemporal monitoring of water storage in the North China Plain from 2002 to 2022 based on an improved GRACE downscaling method","authors":"Jinze Tian ,&nbsp;Yu Chen ,&nbsp;Shuai Wang ,&nbsp;Xinlong Chen ,&nbsp;Huibin Cheng ,&nbsp;Xiaolong Tian ,&nbsp;Xue Wang ,&nbsp;Kun Tan","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102370","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102370","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>North China Plain (NCP), a major agricultural region in China.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>The coupling effects of key drivers on water storage dynamics were quantitatively analyzed, integrating frequency-domain correlation analysis to identify lag effects, which were incorporated into a Random Forest (RF) downscaling method. GRACE data were refined through this approach, enhancing spatial resolution while maintaining accuracy, with the aim of precisely characterizing water storage dynamics and examining its interactions with climatic and anthropogenic factors, particularly the long-term impact of groundwater fluctuations on surface deformation.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insight for the region</h3><div>Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly (TWSA), Shallow Water Storage Anomaly (SWSA), and Groundwater Storage Anomaly (GWSA) were derived for the NCP over the past two decades at a 0.25° resolution. The enhanced downscaling model demonstrated improved performance, with a higher Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (+0.05), an increased correlation coefficient (+0.03), and a reduced root-mean-square error (-0.32 cm). From 2014–2022, interannual water storage fluctuations intensified, with divergent trends for TWSA (0.30 cm/year), SWSA (1.47 cm/year), and GWSA (-0.97 cm/year). Major influencing factors include water diversion projects, increased precipitation, and reduced societal water consumption. Surface deformation lags behind GWSA by 5–6 months, with a long-term lag of 10 months and a correlation of 0.81. These findings deepen the understanding of water storage dynamics and their impact on surface deformation in the NCP.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"59 ","pages":"Article 102370"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143792405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}