Relationships between surface water area and hydrologic fluxes in a cold region terminal lake basin

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI:10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102766

Md Helal Ahmmed , Taufique H. Mahmood , Alexis L. Archambault , Sharhad Wainty

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Study region

Northern Great Plains (NGP), North Dakota, USA

Study focus

Recent climate shifts have caused a prolonged wet period in the NGP since 1993, significantly expanding surface water area and hydrological connectivity. However, the spatiotemporal links between the water connectivity and hydrologic fluxes remain poorly understood in terminal basins like the Devils Lake Basin (DLB), and accurately estimating open water evaporation (OWE) in this cold region is challenging due to winter ice cover. In this study, we developed a modified framework for estimating OWE in cold regions and investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of water connectivity and hydrological fluxes.

New hydrologic Insights

The modified framework produced an average annual net evaporation of 785 mm (2000–2015), closely matched with the USGS estimation (825 mm). A clear hysteresis loop between OWE and both permanent and summer water areas reflected wetting (1996–2011) and drying (2013–2018) phases, highlighting a nonlinear response to shifting climate conditions. Strong nonlinear correlations were found between water connectivity and streamflow across the DLB (R² = 0.49–0.79). While Random Forest model captured this nonlinearity in training (NSE = 0.37–0.68), predictive performance declined during testing (NSE = 0.15–0.46), underscoring the region’s climatic and geomorphic complexity. Multiple Linear Regression revealed spatial heterogeneity in streamflow drivers: water connectivity in western subbasins, precipitation in the north-central, and temperature in the east. These findings highlight the need to consider nonlinearity and spatial variability in cold-region water modeling under climate change.

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寒区末端湖盆地表水面积与水文通量的关系

研究区域：美国北达科他州北部大平原（NGP）研究重点：自1993年以来，最近的气候变化导致NGP的湿润期延长，地表水域面积和水文连通性显著扩大。然而，在像魔鬼湖流域（DLB）这样的末端流域，水连通性与水文通量之间的时空联系仍然知之甚少，并且由于冬季冰盖的覆盖，准确估计该寒冷地区的开放水蒸发（OWE）具有挑战性。在这项研究中，我们开发了一个改进的估算寒区欠欠的框架，并研究了水连通性和水文通量的时空动态。修改后的框架产生的年平均净蒸发量为785 mm(2000-2015)，与USGS的估计（825 mm）非常吻合。OWE与永久水域和夏季水域之间存在明显的滞后环，反映了湿润（1996-2011）和干燥（2013-2018）阶段，突出了对气候条件变化的非线性响应。水连通性与横跨DLB的河流流量之间存在强烈的非线性相关性（R²= 0.49-0.79）。虽然随机森林模型在训练中捕获了这种非线性（NSE = 0.37-0.68），但在测试期间预测性能下降（NSE = 0.15-0.46），强调了该地区的气候和地貌复杂性。多元线性回归揭示了径流驱动因素的空间异质性：西部次流域的水连通性、中北部的降水和东部的温度。这些发现强调了气候变化条件下冷区水模拟需要考虑非线性和空间变异性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

6.70

自引率

8.50%

发文量

284

审稿时长

60 days

期刊介绍： Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies publishes original research papers enhancing the science of hydrology and aiming at region-specific problems, past and future conditions, analysis, review and solutions. The journal particularly welcomes research papers that deliver new insights into region-specific hydrological processes and responses to changing conditions, as well as contributions that incorporate interdisciplinarity and translational science.