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AI strategy, earnings management, and corporate fraud: Evidence from listed firms in China 人工智能战略、盈余管理与企业舞弊：来自中国上市公司的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107460
Liufang Xie , Zhengbo Peng , Xiaoge Tong
{"title":"AI strategy, earnings management, and corporate fraud: Evidence from listed firms in China","authors":"Liufang Xie ,&nbsp;Zhengbo Peng ,&nbsp;Xiaoge Tong","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107460","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107460","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how heterogeneous artificial intelligence (AI) strategies affect corporate fraud, addressing a gap in the literature that has largely focused on AI's governance role from a technological perspective while overlooking firms' underlying adoption motivations. Using panel data on Chinese A-share listed firms from 2013 to 2023, we distinguish between symbolic and substantive AI strategies and analyze their differential effects on corporate fraud. The results show that symbolic AI adoption significantly increases fraud risk, particularly among highly financialized firms, non-manufacturing firms, and firms operating under high uncertainty, whereas substantive AI adoption has no direct effect on fraud incidence. Mechanism analysis reveals that symbolic AI increases fraud risk indirectly through accrual-based earnings management, suggesting that opportunistic financial reporting constitutes an important transmission mechanism. In addition, we find that non-standard audit opinions significantly weaken the positive association between symbolic AI adoption and corporate fraud, highlighting the disciplinary role of external audit oversight. Overall, these findings underscore the importance of organisational motivation in shaping the economic consequences of AI adoption and offer policy-relevant implications for fostering more rational and transparent use of emerging technologies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 107460"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145940100","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Uneven benefits from trade liberalization: Tariff barriers and labor migration in China 贸易自由化带来的不均衡利益：关税壁垒与中国劳动力迁移
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107483
Jiang Wang, Zhenhua Ji, Kai Liu
{"title":"Uneven benefits from trade liberalization: Tariff barriers and labor migration in China","authors":"Jiang Wang,&nbsp;Zhenhua Ji,&nbsp;Kai Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107483","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107483","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how tariff barriers shape internal labor migration in China. While existing literature widely documents trade-induced disparities, less attention studies its impact on worker migrants. We introduce a theoretical framework to demonstrate the mechanisms and empirically test the predictions using 2000–2015 route-level variations. Foreign tariff reductions bolster regional exports through increased firm entry, survival of lower-productivity firms, export volume expansion, and enhanced export propensity, collectively driving wage growth and migration inflows. Conversely, import tariff cuts precipitate domestic market contraction through reduced settled-firm counts and market exit of lower-productivity producers, suppressing wages and triggering labor outflows. These findings shed new light on labor-migration responses to uneven trade benefits, offering policy insights for mitigating spatial inequality.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 107483"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038531","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Vying for support: Lobbying a legislator with uncertain preferences 争取支持：游说一位不确定偏好的议员
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107489
Anne Marie Go , Nikolaos Kokonas , Javier Rivas
{"title":"Vying for support: Lobbying a legislator with uncertain preferences","authors":"Anne Marie Go ,&nbsp;Nikolaos Kokonas ,&nbsp;Javier Rivas","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107489","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107489","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We construct a model in which two opposing lobbyists bid for the support of a legislator with an uncertain bias toward either lobbyist. Notably, high bias uncertainty yields lobbyists offering low bids. In contrast, low bias uncertainty makes lobbyists bid aggressively. Finally, for moderate bias uncertainty, we find a nonmonotonic relationship between the legislator’s bias uncertainty and the lobbyists’ bids.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 107489"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Capital requirements and risk-taking in community banks: The role of market power 社区银行的资本要求和风险承担：市场力量的作用
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107471
Chenzi Yang , Guang-Zhao Yang , Fernando Moreira , Thomas Welsh Archibald
{"title":"Capital requirements and risk-taking in community banks: The role of market power","authors":"Chenzi Yang ,&nbsp;Guang-Zhao Yang ,&nbsp;Fernando Moreira ,&nbsp;Thomas Welsh Archibald","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107471","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107471","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact of capital requirements on risk-taking in U.S. community banks. While existing literature highlights capital requirements’ influence on liquidity and credit risks, the differential impact across market power characteristics especially for smaller institutions remains unclear. Using data from 5702 U.S. community banks, we employ 2SLS-IV models to reveal an inverted U-shaped effect of capital requirements on liquidity risk and a U-shaped effect on credit risk. The impact of capital requirements diminishes as market power increases, particularly in banks with lower liquid assets, liabilities, and transaction deposits. The impact of Tier 1 and CET1 capital requirements exhibit similar patterns, while CCB requirements display an opposite trend. These findings offer new insights into financial risk management, highlighting the need for tailored regulatory approaches for community banks with low market power to enhance overall stability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 107471"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145979085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do aggregate dynamics in developing economies differ after a rise in home and foreign productivity? 在国内外生产率提高后，发展中经济体的总体动态是否有所不同？
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107447
Mustafa Tuğan , Seda E. Özçelik
{"title":"Do aggregate dynamics in developing economies differ after a rise in home and foreign productivity?","authors":"Mustafa Tuğan ,&nbsp;Seda E. Özçelik","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107447","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107447","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While developing economies set narrowing their productivity gap with advanced economies as a key goal, the macroeconomic consequences of productivity improvements in developing economies remain underexplored. In particular, the existing literature often overlooks whether domestic versus foreign-driven productivity gains have different aggregate effects. Our approach assumes that foreign technology spills over into developing economies’ technology, but not vice versa, allowing us to identify the distinct impacts of both sources of productivity growth in a novel way. Our findings show that U.S. productivity shocks in developing economies have minimal effects on such key macroeconomic variables as output, employment, prices, and so on, while domestic productivity shocks lead to significant and broad-based responses across all these variables. These contrasting effects challenge the complementary relationship found in larger developing economies like India and stress the need to differentiate between domestic and foreign sources of productivity improvements to better understand their economic impact.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 107447"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145886264","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impact of technological development on the employment of older adults: Evidence from high-tech industry expansion in China 技术发展对老年人就业的影响：来自中国高新技术产业扩张的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107464
Xi Luo , Kaidong Jia , Yiming Xia , Guochang Zhao
{"title":"Impact of technological development on the employment of older adults: Evidence from high-tech industry expansion in China","authors":"Xi Luo ,&nbsp;Kaidong Jia ,&nbsp;Yiming Xia ,&nbsp;Guochang Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107464","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107464","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Technological development and population ageing have been two defining trends in recent decades. However, whether technological advancements reinstate or displace employment opportunities for older workers remains unclear. Using a nationally representative dataset from China and the Bartik instrumental variable approach, we observe that while the overall impact of technological development on employment is estimated to be negative but statistically insignificant, the negative effect intensifies with age and becomes negative beyond the age of approximately 42. We suggest that displacement effects outweigh reinstatement effects, as the negative impact is driven primarily by older adults with lower socioeconomic statuses, who are more vulnerable to job displacement.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 107464"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145940099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of fertility on older adults’ healthcare utilization: The roles of health and wealth channels 生育对老年人医疗保健利用的影响：健康渠道和财富渠道的作用
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107455
Mingjia Xie , Ting Yin , Yi Zhang , Takashi Oshio
{"title":"The impact of fertility on older adults’ healthcare utilization: The roles of health and wealth channels","authors":"Mingjia Xie ,&nbsp;Ting Yin ,&nbsp;Yi Zhang ,&nbsp;Takashi Oshio","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107455","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107455","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates how fertility affects healthcare utilization among older adults. Departing from the literature's primary focus on health outcomes, it addresses a key gap in understanding family-level determinants of health spending in aging societies. Using data from rural China and an instrumental variable strategy, we find that having more children increases healthcare utilization and spending, but also the likelihood of forgoing costly inpatient care, reflecting unmet healthcare needs among older adults. The health cost burden is particularly pronounced for women, less-educated parents, and families with limited resources or weak insurance. Two mechanisms explain these effects: the “health channel”, where higher fertility worsens parental health and increases demand for healthcare, and the “wealth channel”, where children provide support that facilitates healthcare use. These findings reveal an overlooked cost of fertility: birth-encouraging policies, while easing demographic pressures, can increase older generations' financial burdens, underscoring the importance of equitable and affordable healthcare.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 107455"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145886324","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Leverage, liquidity, and investment: The cyclical effects of corporate debt 杠杆、流动性和投资：公司债务的周期性影响
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107457
Rubén Gonzálvez, Luis Cárdenas
{"title":"Leverage, liquidity, and investment: The cyclical effects of corporate debt","authors":"Rubén Gonzálvez,&nbsp;Luis Cárdenas","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107457","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107457","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How does corporate debt shape firms’ investment behavior across the business cycle? Using firm-level balance sheet data for Spanish companies over 1997–2019, we estimate a flexible panel data model and a doubly robust difference-in-differences design to identify the causal effect of leverage on investment. We find that leverage stimulates investment before 2008 but strongly contracts it during the post-2008 deleveraging period. After 2008, highly indebted firms reduce their investment rate by 1.8 percentage points more than less indebted firms. This contraction is concentrated among small and medium-sized enterprises, with micro firms cutting their investment rate by 6.3 percentage points and firms in construction showing particularly strong declines. In contrast, investment by large firms remains comparatively stable. The results underscore the procyclical nature of corporate debt and suggest the importance of closely monitoring firm leverage and liquidity conditions, particularly for SMEs, during periods of economic expansion and contraction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 107457"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145847697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Technological peer pressure and inventor mobility: Evidence from China 技术同侪压力与发明者流动：来自中国的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107485
Geng Chen, Yikai Han
{"title":"Technological peer pressure and inventor mobility: Evidence from China","authors":"Geng Chen,&nbsp;Yikai Han","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107485","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107485","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the relationship between Technological Peer Pressure (TPP) and inventor mobility. Using data on 398,734 inventors from 3078 Chinese listed firms over 2007–2021, we find that TPP significantly increases the likelihood of inventor mobility. This conclusion passes a series of robustness tests and mitigates endogeneity issues via the IV-2SLS and PSM-DID models. We identify three mechanisms driving this effect: heightened corporate earnings pressure, increased innovation bubbles, and diminished collaborative culture. This positive TPP-mobility link is weaker for inventors with more co-inventors or star inventors, for firms with more R&amp;D alliances or less myopic management. Overall, our results highlight TPP's critical role in shaping inventor mobility, offering insights for firms to respond to technological competition in the product market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 107485"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145979084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Local government debt and shadow banking of non-financial enterprises: Evidence from China 地方政府债务与非金融企业影子银行：来自中国的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107472
Zheng Wu, Alice Y. Ouyang
{"title":"Local government debt and shadow banking of non-financial enterprises: Evidence from China","authors":"Zheng Wu,&nbsp;Alice Y. Ouyang","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107472","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107472","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores how local government debt expansion reshapes the financing behavior and costs of non-financial enterprises, and further motivates enterprises to engage in shadow banking activities. To clarify the underlying mechanism, we conduct an empirical analysis utilizing data on entrusted loans from Chinese non-financial A-share listed enterprises spanning the period 2007–2020. The results show that local government debt expansion tightens bank credit availability for the corporate sector, forcing financing-disadvantaged enterprises to seek alternative funding through entrusted loans. Concurrently, increased demand-driven loan returns attract financing-advantaged enterprises to participate in entrusted loan businesses, accelerating their financialization while transforming financing challenges for disadvantaged corporates from “difficult financing” to “expensive financing.” Our study highlights the critical need to optimize cross-sector credit allocation. Regulatory authorities should closely monitor how local government debt expansion promotes corporate reliance on shadow banking and remain vigilant against risk transmission from the government sector to the corporate sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 107472"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145940104","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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