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Imported intangible capital and sectoral economic growth: Evidence from 42 economies 进口无形资本与部门经济增长：来自42个经济体的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107429
Shuyue Liu, Radhika Lahiri, Annastiina Silvennoinen
{"title":"Imported intangible capital and sectoral economic growth: Evidence from 42 economies","authors":"Shuyue Liu,&nbsp;Radhika Lahiri,&nbsp;Annastiina Silvennoinen","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107429","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107429","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the impact of imported intangible capital on value added. While existing studies confirm the importance of intangible capital for growth, its distinct effects by source, imported versus domestic, remain underexplored. Using data from the World Input-Output Database for 2000–2014, we employ a two-way fixed effects model to estimate both long- and short-term impacts. The results show that intangible capital generally increases value added in the long run but reduces it in the short run due to adjustment costs before productivity gains are realised. Moreover, imported intangibles exert stronger negative short-term effects than domestic ones. However, this pattern reverses after the global financial crisis, suggesting that multinational firms are more resilient to shocks. These findings provide new insights into the role of intangible capital on economic growth and imply the need for institutional reform and financial support to minimise short-term adjustment costs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107429"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145789953","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The dark side of environmental judicial specialization: Corporate labor income share in China 环境司法专业化的黑暗面：中国企业劳动收入占比
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107435
Lianchao Yu , Lele Zhu , Jinting Dong
{"title":"The dark side of environmental judicial specialization: Corporate labor income share in China","authors":"Lianchao Yu ,&nbsp;Lele Zhu ,&nbsp;Jinting Dong","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107435","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107435","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Although prior research has largely emphasized the benefits of environmental judicial specialization, its potential adverse effects remain understudied. Using a multiperiod difference-in-differences design within the quasi-experimental setting of China's environmental court establishment (ECE), this study examines how ECE influences corporate labor income share (CLIS). The findings show that ECE significantly reduces CLIS. Decomposition analysis indicates that although ECE raises labor productivity, it does not generate corresponding increases in employee compensation, thereby suppressing CLIS. Mechanism analysis shows that ECE promotes investment structure optimization and technological innovation but simultaneously encourages capital-biased income allocation that further reduces CLIS. Cross-sectional evidence reveals that the negative effect is stronger in regions with weaker wage bargaining power; in capital-intensive, highly competitive, and heavily polluting industries; and among privately owned firms and those with poorer social responsibility performance. Governance mechanism analysis demonstrates that the employee director system and employee stock ownership plan can mitigate this adverse influence. Overall, the study uncovers overlooked distributional consequences of environmental judicial specialization and identifies effective compensatory governance mechanisms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107435"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145839399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Subnational impacts of Chinese education sector development aid on youth educational attainment in Africa 中国教育部门发展援助对非洲青年受教育程度的地方影响
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107444
Dickson David Agbaji , Qiong Zhu
{"title":"Subnational impacts of Chinese education sector development aid on youth educational attainment in Africa","authors":"Dickson David Agbaji ,&nbsp;Qiong Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107444","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107444","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the impacts of Chinese education aid on African youth's secondary and tertiary education attainment. It harmonises 92 Demographic and Health Survey datasets from 27 African countries with AidData's geocoded data on 2580 Chinese projects across Africa between 2000 and 2021. The study draws on the education production function theory and adopts a difference-in-differences estimator that addresses endogeneity by testing for differences between active and pipeline projects. It finds that proximity to active Chinese education sector projects significantly improves African youth secondary and tertiary school enrolment and completion, with tertiary-level and non-infrastructure projects exhibiting the strongest effects. A causal mediation analysis demonstrates that the aid effect is mediated via household income, rather than infrastructure. Moreover, social and economic sector aid projects exhibit (in)direct spillover effects. Lastly, the paper finds that a selection bias exists, as wealthy and urban areas possess a comparative advantage vis-à-vis exposure to Chinese aid.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107444"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145839404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatial dependencies in the relationship between automation and migrant worker employment: Evidence from Chinese cities 自动化与农民工就业关系中的空间依赖：来自中国城市的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107442
Zhoufu Yan , Qihong Zhu , Markus Leibrecht , Fangwei Wu
{"title":"Spatial dependencies in the relationship between automation and migrant worker employment: Evidence from Chinese cities","authors":"Zhoufu Yan ,&nbsp;Qihong Zhu ,&nbsp;Markus Leibrecht ,&nbsp;Fangwei Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107442","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107442","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China is exceptional in the speed of automation and the extent of rural labor migration. We investigate the impact of industrial automation on rural migrant employment in China, with a focus on spatial spillover effects. We used city-level employment data from 2011 to 2018 and industrial robot adoption as a proxy for automation, and applied a Spatial Durbin Model. We find that automation significantly reduces local rural migrant employment while generating positive spillovers in neighboring cities. These effects vary by migrants’ skills, tasks, industries, migration types, age, and marital status. Mechanism analyses reveal that automation fosters high-tech enterprise clustering and skill upgrading, creating skill premiums and labor outflows. Simultaneously, automation strengthens industrial linkages and structural similarity across neighboring cities, facilitating positive spillovers. The findings inform inter-regional policies aimed at stabilizing rural migrant employment and well-being amid technological transformation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107442"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145839405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does public data openness reduce boundary pollution? Evidence from interprovincial neighboring cities in China 公共数据开放能减少边界污染吗？来自中国省际相邻城市的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107405
Peiyu Li , Hanmei Zhou , Xinzhi Liu , Liping Li
{"title":"Does public data openness reduce boundary pollution? Evidence from interprovincial neighboring cities in China","authors":"Peiyu Li ,&nbsp;Hanmei Zhou ,&nbsp;Xinzhi Liu ,&nbsp;Liping Li","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107405","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107405","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Boundary regions face persistent challenges in pollution control due to fragmented regulatory responsibilities and weak coordination. Public data openness (PDO) offers a new avenue for addressing boundary pollution (BP) by reducing market barriers and strengthening collaborative governance. Using China's PDO rollout as a quasinatural experiment and drawing on data from interprovincial neighboring cities, this study evaluates PDO's impact on BP. The results show that PDO significantly lowers BP without causing pollution displacement, primarily by promoting market integration and intensifying environmental constraints. Its effectiveness also varies according to officials' characteristics, local governance capacity, and the degree of interregional coordination. Analysis of platform data features further indicates that improving data utilization and expanding economic and environmental datasets are crucial for maximizing policy effectiveness. Additional evidence reveals that PDO brings notable economic benefits. Overall, these findings broaden the understanding of PDO and offer important insights for advancing cross-regional environmental governance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107405"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145616203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Decoding synchronization of cycles between BRICS and the U.S.: Patterns and drivers 解读金砖国家与美国经济周期同步：模式与驱动因素
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107391
Pami Dua , Divya Tuteja
{"title":"Decoding synchronization of cycles between BRICS and the U.S.: Patterns and drivers","authors":"Pami Dua ,&nbsp;Divya Tuteja","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107391","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107391","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The paper examines patterns and drivers of synchronization between BRICS and the U.S. It includes common global factors which have not been explored much in the extant literature. To measure economic activity, the study utilizes growth rates of the Coincident Index from January 1995 till December 2022 sourced from Economic Cycle Research Institute, New York and employs the bias-corrected method of moments estimator for dynamic panel models. Results show that U.S. recessions of 2001, 2008-09 and 2020 resulted in higher synchronization across U.S. and BRICS cycles. We construct novel measures for synchronization, trade integration and financial integration and show that trade and financial channels significantly explain the synchronization. Finally, common global factors which amplify synchronization are identified. The findings imply that EME policymakers must undertake proactive and coordinated measures to shield their economies from a recession during times of intense financial stress, heightened policy uncertainty, and significant oil price shocks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107391"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145616201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The fiscal policy blend and its impact on sectoral growth: The case of Greece 财政政策组合及其对部门增长的影响：以希腊为例
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107395
Andreas Zervas , Dimitrios Thomakos
{"title":"The fiscal policy blend and its impact on sectoral growth: The case of Greece","authors":"Andreas Zervas ,&nbsp;Dimitrios Thomakos","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107395","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107395","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate how different types of government spending and total taxes affect the Greek economy, with a focus on the production side. We analyze their effects on various value-added sectors. Various government spending types impact production sectors differently; notably, government consumption spending has a more substantial effect on boosting the value added of the non-tradable sector. Our findings emphasize the way fiscal policy influences the economy from the production side. This aligns with recent theoretical studies suggesting that government spending significantly affects services. Additionally, we discovered a new insight: higher taxes severely decrease industrial production, increase inflation, with a larger multiplier effect than spending. These results offer crucial policy lessons; they help explain why adjustment programs resulted in significant output losses and highlight when consolidations may be successful.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107395"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145616197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Common institutional ownership and corporate financial investment 共同的机构所有权和企业财务投资
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107423
Xiaoyu Chen, Qi Luo
{"title":"Common institutional ownership and corporate financial investment","authors":"Xiaoyu Chen,&nbsp;Qi Luo","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107423","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107423","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Excessive financial investment can hinder corporate sustainable development and broader economic growth. However, the influence of common institutional ownership on corporate financial investment remains insufficiently studied. Using a sample of Chinese listed firms from 2009 to 2022, this study examines whether, and through which channels, common institutional ownership influences corporate financial investment. We find that common institutional ownership significantly curbs financial investment and exacerbates investment structure bias toward real investment. Mechanism tests indicate that common institutional ownership inhibits financial investment by strengthening financing capacity, improving operational efficiency, and increasing innovative activities. The financialization inhibitory effect is stronger for single-segment firms, those in less competitive industries, and firms located in regions with stronger future-oriented culture. In addition, common institutional ownership alleviates the negative impact of financialization on future corporate core performance. Overall, the findings provide novel empirical evidence on the positive role of common institutional ownership in supporting real economic development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107423"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145737063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of tax reduction policies on fine and confiscation revenues: Evidence from China’s VAT reform 税收减免政策对罚没收入的影响：来自中国增值税改革的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107431
Xueren Zhou, Nian Liu, Ran Chen
{"title":"The impact of tax reduction policies on fine and confiscation revenues: Evidence from China’s VAT reform","authors":"Xueren Zhou,&nbsp;Nian Liu,&nbsp;Ran Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107431","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107431","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tax cuts may stimulate economic growth while tightening local fiscal constraints. Leveraging China’s VAT reform as a quasi-natural experiment, we examine whether local governments offset tax revenue losses by increasing fine and confiscation revenues. We manually compiled a dataset of administrative penalties and implemented a difference-in-differences regression approach. We find a significant post-reform increase in fine and confiscation revenues, providing evidence of a tax-fee substitution effect. The effect is more pronounced in regions with weaker business environments and is concentrated in authorities with greater enforcement discretion. Mechanism tests indicate that fiscal pressure, interacting with enforcement discretion, drives the increase in fine and confiscation revenues. Our findings reveal an unintended fiscal consequence of tax-cut policies. The design of tax reduction policies should fully account for local fiscal incentives to mitigate behavioral distortions that could undermine policy effectiveness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107431"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145737066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of green bond issuances on green mergers and acquisitions of peer firms 绿色债券发行对同行企业绿色并购的影响
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107417
Shiqi Wang , Yongqiao Wang
{"title":"The impact of green bond issuances on green mergers and acquisitions of peer firms","authors":"Shiqi Wang ,&nbsp;Yongqiao Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107417","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107417","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of green bond issuances on green mergers and acquisitions (GM&amp;As) of peer firms. Using data from China's A-share listed firms from 2012 to 2022, we employ staggered DID model to demonstrate that green bond issuances can stimulate GM&amp;A activities of peer firms. The stimulating effect is mainly attributable to competition rather than environmental penalty pressure. Green bond issuances also raise executives' environmental awareness and attract greater attention from green investors in peer firms, thereby reinforcing GM&amp;A activities. The effect is more pronounced for firms located in regions with stricter environmental regulation, with greater media attention, and classified as heavily polluting. Moreover, GM&amp;As enable peer firms to significantly enhance their green technological innovation and environmental performance. These findings provide new evidence on how green financial instruments shape firms' strategic behaviour and offer implications for a more effective green finance system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107417"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145684376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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