Economic Modelling最新文献_第10页

Does the self-holding behavior of fund managers foster fund sustainable investment? 基金经理的持股行为是否促进了基金的可持续投资？

IF 4.2 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-07-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107242

Hu Wang, Yuanqiang Lian, Hong Shen

引用次数: 0

Scoring markets: Theory and application in sports economics 得分市场：体育经济学理论与应用

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-07-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107236

Antonio Avila-Cano , Francisco Triguero-Ruiz , José Manuel Ordóñez-de-Haro

{"title":"Scoring markets: Theory and application in sports economics","authors":"Antonio Avila-Cano , Francisco Triguero-Ruiz , José Manuel Ordóñez-de-Haro","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107236","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107236","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Some organizations can be analyzed as if they were markets, even if they do not precisely meet the canonical definition of one. In this article, we introduce and theoretically define the concept of scoring markets, referring to organizations in which outcomes are determined by a scoring system. We show that such organizations possess a distinct feature: the set of attainable configurations is discrete and discontinuous. This characteristic allows for the straightforward assignment of probabilities to feasible configurations, as well as the application of numerical methods to identify particular outcomes. Scoring markets arise in regulated markets, contests, elections, and sports events. Sports economics provides a compelling context for illustrating and advancing the understanding of scoring markets, especially through bilateral football competitions. Drawing from our theoretical framework, we identify potential levels of competitive balance in the group stage of the Union of European Football Associations Champions League. We compute the probabilities of these outcomes and compare the theoretical predictions to the actual results observed across each of the eight groups in every season from 1999/2000 to 2023/2024. This comparison reveals a general trend toward greater point concentration, corresponding to less probable theoretical configurations and indicating a broader decline in competitive balance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107236"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144757971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Can monetary policy tame asset price fluctuations? Evaluating the dynamic trade-offs 货币政策能抑制资产价格波动吗？评估动态权衡

IF 4.2 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-07-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107239

Yuzhe Huang , Long Jin , Changchun Pan

引用次数: 0

Do macroprudential policies influence FinTech credit growth? 宏观审慎政策会影响金融科技信贷增长吗？

IF 4.2 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-07-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107233

Onneetse L. Sikalao-Lekobane

引用次数: 0

Bank capital and monetary policy transmission: Analyzing the central bank’s dilemma 银行资本与货币政策传导：中央银行困境分析

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-07-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107158

Rajeswari Sengupta , Harsh Vardhan , Akhilesh Verma

引用次数: 0

How does disaster risk impact fiscal sustainability and inequality? 灾害风险如何影响财政可持续性和不平等？

IF 4.2 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-07-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107220

Anh H. Le , Donghyun Park , John Beirne , Gazi Salah Uddin

{"title":"How does disaster risk impact fiscal sustainability and inequality?","authors":"Anh H. Le , Donghyun Park , John Beirne , Gazi Salah Uddin","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107220","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107220","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate whether heightened disaster risk increases government debt, undermines fiscal sustainability, and disproportionately affects low-income households. Using panel local projections from 1995 to 2021 across 184 economies, we find that climate vulnerability shocks worsen debt dynamics, reflected in higher debt-to-GDP ratios and deteriorating fiscal balances. These shocks also heighten income inequality, with the income share of low-income groups declining relative to that of high-income groups. A state-dependent analysis reveals that these effects are most severe in high states of climate risks. Motivated by this empirical analysis, we develop a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring two household types and a fiscal authority employing targeted policies. Disaster shocks induce recessions and intensify consumption inequality. Consumption among hand-to-mouth households declines by a factor of three compared to Ricardian households. Sovereign debt increases sharply as governments implement measures to cushion the economic blow. However, targeted transfers effectively reduce inequality at a lower fiscal cost than progressive income taxes. Our findings suggest that designing climate-resilient budgets and equitable relief measures is essential to preserving both fiscal solvency and social cohesion in the face of growing disaster risk.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107220"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144711503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The employment effects of ICT investment: Evidence from the U.S. Commuting Zones 信息通信技术投资对就业的影响：来自美国通勤区的证据

IF 4.2 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-07-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107218

Yanchi Zou , Kun Li , Lilong He , Jiapei Guo

引用次数: 0

Zombie firms in network: Congestion and evergreening 网络中的僵尸公司：拥塞与常青

IF 4.2 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-07-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107217

Okan Akarsu , Emrehan Aktuğ , Huzeyfe Torun

{"title":"Zombie firms in network: Congestion and evergreening","authors":"Okan Akarsu , Emrehan Aktuğ , Huzeyfe Torun","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107217","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107217","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We explore the spillover impact of zombie firms in Turkey by exploiting a rich administrative dataset that contains firm-level information on balance sheets, inter-firm sales, employment, and firm-bank level credit records. We document three key facts regarding zombie dynamics: (i) Leveraging matched firm-bank level credit registry data, we highlight the presence of an evergreening motive, leading to a misallocation of credit away from productive firms. At the same time, healthy firms in zombie-dense networks face reduced credit access. (ii) Zombie firms, which are on average less productive than nonzombie firms, impede investment and employment opportunities at healthier firms. Nonzombie firms operating in sectors with a high prevalence of zombie firms experience lower sales, assets, and productivity. (iii) Incorporating B2B sales data structured similarly to firm-level input–output linkages, our study causally establishes that greater upstream or downstream exposure to zombie firms leads to reduced sales, investment, and employment growth compared to firms without zombie connections. Increased exposure to zombie firms significantly reduces markups, value-added, productivity, and EBIT margins due to cascading effects on production technology, shifting it toward lower value-added. Additionally, a higher share of zombies in the upstream sector reduces input costs for firms due to excess production.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107217"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144671900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modeling green reputation decisions in a nonlinear Cournot duopoly of carbon emission abatement 碳减排非线性古诺双寡头环境下的绿色声誉决策模型

IF 4.2 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-07-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107215

Xiaoliang Li , Shuie Sun , Ally Quan Zhang

引用次数: 0

Firm-level analysis of bubble formation in Chinese real estate equities 中国房地产股票泡沫形成的企业层面分析

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-07-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107226

Isabel Figuerola-Ferretti , José Manuel Cueto , Javier Márquez , Ramón Bermejo

{"title":"Firm-level analysis of bubble formation in Chinese real estate equities","authors":"Isabel Figuerola-Ferretti , José Manuel Cueto , Javier Márquez , Ramón Bermejo","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107226","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107226","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates evidence of bubble preponderance in China's real estate sector and seeks to identify the main determinants of exuberance in the equity prices of listed developers, relative to their dividend-based fundamentals. In contrast to the focus on property prices and rents that characterizes prior research, we emphasize real estate equity prices and firm-specific metrics. This shift in perspective, and the corresponding use of a dividend-based proxy, separates speculative-driven bubbles from those linked to fundamentals and thus enables us to better interpret the nature of exuberance as well as assess the alignment—or misalignment—between prices and fundamentals. Our empirical examination, based on the equity prices of 25 publicly listed developers included in the BICHODVP Chinese benchmark real estate index, detects bubbles in developer equity prices as well as the presence of common bubble dynamics among BICHODVP index components. Additionally, by incorporating firm-specific characteristics and macroeconomic variables, we provide a more granular understanding of how company characteristics—especially corporate valuation multiples and leverage—interact with broader market and policy conditions to generate equity price bubbles in the real estate sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107226"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144721921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0