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Productivity spillovers through trade integration in Central America 中美洲贸易一体化带来的生产力溢出效应
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107337
Arnoldo López-Marmolejo, Jeffrey Serrano
{"title":"Productivity spillovers through trade integration in Central America","authors":"Arnoldo López-Marmolejo,&nbsp;Jeffrey Serrano","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107337","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107337","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates how trade integration shapes the transmission of productivity shocks across Central America, addressing a critical gap in the understanding of spillovers in a deeply integrated region. Existing literature confirms the existence of spillovers in the region but offers limited evidence on their transmission mechanisms. Using a computable general equilibrium model in which trade relationships are represented through gravity equations, we simulate country-specific total-factor-productivity shocks and trace their macroeconomic impacts. Our results show that countries that are more integrated gain more from positive productivity shocks, regardless of whether the shock originates within the country or among its trade partners, with low-income economies benefiting the most. Additionally, countries present higher productivity-fueled economic growth when they trade compared to when their economies are closed. These findings highlight how trade integration amplifies productivity-driven growth and clarify the synergy between productivity gains and regional trade.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 107337"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145222912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimal policies for decarbonization via carbon capture: Tax, subsidize, or both? 通过碳捕获实现脱碳的最佳政策：税收、补贴，还是两者兼而有之？
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107319
Mahelet G. Fikru , Bruktawit Ahmed , Wassim Daher
{"title":"Optimal policies for decarbonization via carbon capture: Tax, subsidize, or both?","authors":"Mahelet G. Fikru ,&nbsp;Bruktawit Ahmed ,&nbsp;Wassim Daher","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107319","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107319","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how governments design decarbonization policies using emission taxes, carbon capture and storage subsidies, or the combination of both. We develop a two-stage model in which the government first chooses policy instruments to maximize welfare, while carbon-intensive firms respond by selecting production and abatement levels. We then use Monte Carlo simulations to assess how simultaneous variation in model parameters affects optimal policies. The analytical results reveal that taxes and subsidies are strategic substitutes—raising one calls for reducing the other. The optimal policy mix depends on pollution intensity and damage. High intensity favors a tax-only regime, whereas low intensity calls for subsidies alone or a mix of both, depending on marginal damage. These results highlight the need for policymakers to align policy instruments with environmental parameters. The simulation results show the emergence of a tax-only regime where tax rates are closely tied to marginal damages.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 107319"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145222914","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Job switching and bequest motives in an optimal consumption–investment model under inflation and mortality risks 通货膨胀和死亡风险下最优消费-投资模型中的工作转换和遗赠动机
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107307
Qi Li , Yong Hyun Shin , Ji-Hun Yoon
{"title":"Job switching and bequest motives in an optimal consumption–investment model under inflation and mortality risks","authors":"Qi Li ,&nbsp;Yong Hyun Shin ,&nbsp;Ji-Hun Yoon","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107307","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107307","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study presents a unified model for analyzing optimal consumption, investment, and life-insurance decisions under the combined effects of inflation risk, mortality risk, and reversible job-switching opportunities. In the model, individuals dynamically choose between two job states with distinct income–leisure trade-offs while allocating wealth across a complete financial market that includes inflation-linked bonds, stocks, and bank deposits. Using the martingale approach, we derive closed-form solutions and conduct comparative statics to examine how life expectancy, bequest motives, inflation, and leisure preferences jointly influence individual financial decision-making. The results show that mortality risk and bequest motives have opposing effects on the wealth threshold for job switching, offering new theoretical insights beyond prior studies, which typically consider these factors in isolation. Furthermore, we demonstrate that job-switching flexibility can significantly enhance consumption and investment outcomes, especially in inflationary environments. The model is further extended to incorporate stochastic labor income and job-switching costs, capturing more realistic labor market frictions and income uncertainty. Although these extensions do not yield closed-form solutions, the theoretical frameworks provide a foundation for future research using partial differential equation methods. Overall, the proposed framework delivers strong explanatory power and meaningful policy implications for retirement planning, life-insurance design, inflation-hedging strategies, and the development of flexible labor market policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 107307"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145222916","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inequality and transmission channels of monetary policy in a macro agent-based model 宏观主体模型下货币政策的不平等与传导渠道
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107316
Samantha Coccia , Alberto Russo
{"title":"Inequality and transmission channels of monetary policy in a macro agent-based model","authors":"Samantha Coccia ,&nbsp;Alberto Russo","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107316","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107316","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of monetary policy on income and wealth inequality through several transmission channels, including income composition, earnings heterogeneity, saving redistribution, portfolio composition, and household debt. Using an agent-based stock-flow-consistent model, the study finds that a permanent increase in the policy rate raises unemployment and reduces firm dividends, hitting net debtors harder than net savers and worsening income inequality. In addition, the savings redistribution channel contributes to the increase in the income of net savers. Furthermore, the study shows that a higher policy rate also leads to lower asset values accumulation, especially for the poorest households, thereby exacerbating wealth inequality through the portfolio composition channel.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 107316"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145222915","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A new method to estimate the income elasticity of marginal utility of income in the absence of price data 在没有价格数据的情况下估计收入边际效用的收入弹性的新方法
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107330
Saroja Selvanathan , Maneka Jayasinghe , Eliyathamby A. Selvanathan
{"title":"A new method to estimate the income elasticity of marginal utility of income in the absence of price data","authors":"Saroja Selvanathan ,&nbsp;Maneka Jayasinghe ,&nbsp;Eliyathamby A. Selvanathan","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107330","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107330","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The income elasticity of marginal utility of income, <em>ω</em>, and price elasticities are key parameters in both micro- and macroeconomic policy analyses, including computable general equilibrium modeling, cost-benefit analysis, and public economics decision-making. Typically, the value of <em>ω</em> is derived by estimating demand systems using price, quantity, and income data. Price elasticities are then calculated based on the estimated value of <em>ω</em>. However, most household expenditure surveys do not separately collect price data, making it impossible to estimate <em>ω</em> and price elasticities directly. This limitation creates significant challenges when using household survey data for consumer demand analysis. A recent study by Clements et al. (2022) used Australian household expenditure survey data to estimate price elasticities in the absence of price data by adopting an approximate value, <em>ω</em> = −2, which is frequently cited in the consumer demand literature when price data are available. Building upon this, the present paper introduces a new method for estimating <em>ω</em> and, in turn, price elasticities and demonstrate its application using Sri Lanka's Household Income and Expenditure Survey data. The estimated <em>ω</em> values are then used to test the well-known Frisch (1959) conjecture and Pigou's (1910) law. Both are strongly supported by the data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 107330"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145222911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Effect of operating leverage on stock price crash risk: Evidence from China 经营杠杆对股价崩盘风险的影响：来自中国的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107320
Lin Zhu , Wenjiao Zang
{"title":"Effect of operating leverage on stock price crash risk: Evidence from China","authors":"Lin Zhu ,&nbsp;Wenjiao Zang","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107320","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107320","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how operating leverage (i.e., firms’ reliance on fixed costs) affects stock price crash risk. Although leverage is known to magnify earnings volatility, its link to crash risk remains underexplored. Using data from Chinese-listed firms from 2007 to 2021, we show that high operating leverage raises crash risk by 5.5 %–6.9 %. The effect arises through two channels: investors overestimate growth potential while overlooking vulnerabilities, and managers delay bad-news disclosure. These risks intensify under high investor sentiment, speculative trading, and low transparency, but are mitigated by stable sales and long-term capital. Employing two-stage least squares, difference-in-differences, entropy balancing, and system generalized method of moments, we establish a robust causal link. The results highlight the need to consider operating leverage, alongside financial leverage, in assessing market fragility and shaping stability policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 107320"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145222216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Deposit insurance pricing and monetary policy transmission 存款保险定价与货币政策传导
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107318
Steve Billon , Natalia Andries
{"title":"Deposit insurance pricing and monetary policy transmission","authors":"Steve Billon ,&nbsp;Natalia Andries","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107318","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107318","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper provides a theoretical model that examines the effect of deposit insurance pricing on the transmission of monetary policy. Banks operate in an environment of monopolistic competition and face uncertain returns on firms’ investment projects. A deposit insurance scheme allows for mispricing relative to the fair premium, whereby under- or overpricing has an implicit subsidy or tax effect on deposits. Mispricing in deposit insurance shifts household portfolio allocation between bonds and bank deposits and creates externalities on monetary policy transmission on bank deposits, loans, bonds, and their respective interest rates. The distortion increases when the coverage of deposit insurance is extended. Conversely, fair pricing ensures the neutrality of deposit insurance on interest rate pass-through.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 107318"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145222913","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Opening in the enclosing era: Trade decoupling and corporate digital open-source strategy in China 封闭时代的开放：中国贸易脱钩与企业数字开源战略
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107323
Chao Xing , Donghui Li , Yiyang Liu , Kai Wu
{"title":"Opening in the enclosing era: Trade decoupling and corporate digital open-source strategy in China","authors":"Chao Xing ,&nbsp;Donghui Li ,&nbsp;Yiyang Liu ,&nbsp;Kai Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107323","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107323","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The impact of trade decoupling on the implementation of a digital open-source strategy among Chinese firms is explored in this paper. On the basis of a textual analysis approach to detect digital open sources, we find that trade decoupling, measured by the decline in overseas sales, is a threat that induces firms to proactively adopt a digital open-source strategy. This strategy is achieved through three channels: market pressure, financing pressure, and managerial pressure. We document that this positive effect is strengthened when firms are located in regions with advanced information and conventional technologies. Furthermore, implementing an open-source strategy facilitates corporate innovation and subsequent open-source contribution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 107323"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145160343","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Two kinds of centralization: Divergences between China and Europe 两种集权：中国与欧洲的分歧
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107315
Li Wang , Qing Wang , Yufei Zhang , Nobuaki Hori
{"title":"Two kinds of centralization: Divergences between China and Europe","authors":"Li Wang ,&nbsp;Qing Wang ,&nbsp;Yufei Zhang ,&nbsp;Nobuaki Hori","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107315","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107315","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper develops a dynamic model of culture–politics–technology coevolution to explain the historical divergences between China and Europe. In China, rice cultivation and the monsoon climate generated high returns to large-scale infrastructure, encouraging collectivism and sustaining a steady trajectory of growing state centralization, which we call “cultural centralization”. In contrast, Europe’s wheat-based agriculture and oceanic or Mediterranean climate produced lower returns to infrastructure, preserving individualism and political fragmentation. Yet individualism also stimulated innovation and productivity growth, creating a non-monotonic path of centralization: an initial phase of decentralization followed by renewed centralization driven by technological advances, a process of “technological centralization”. Overall, our analysis shows how environmental conditions, cultural norms, and infrastructure productivity together shaped the contrasting long-run paths of political centralization and technological progress in China and Europe.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 107315"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145222215","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Boosting innovation or entry: What increases output more? 促进创新还是进入：哪个更能提高产出？
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107314
Rohan Shah
{"title":"Boosting innovation or entry: What increases output more?","authors":"Rohan Shah","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107314","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107314","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Governments spend substantial sums subsidising firm investment in Research and Development (R&amp;D) with the aim of increasing output. How effective are these subsidies? Could alternative policies boost output more? I develop a quantitative model of the US economy in which heterogeneous firms choose R&amp;D, physical capital, and debt subject to a collateral constraint distinguishing between physical capital and R&amp;D. I find that negative spillovers from higher aggregate R&amp;D render R&amp;D subsidies largely ineffective at increasing output. Conversely, subsidising entry instead of R&amp;D achieves ten times the increase in output because entry subsidies do not generate large negative R&amp;D spillovers. My results suggest that a policymaker seeking to increase output should focus on incentivising entry rather than R&amp;D.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 107314"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145160339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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