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Digital M&As, knowledge distance, and labor productivity: Technical and organizational perspectives
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107064
Yiming Zhao , Haitong Li , Zicong Miao , Keyang Li
{"title":"Digital M&As, knowledge distance, and labor productivity: Technical and organizational perspectives","authors":"Yiming Zhao ,&nbsp;Haitong Li ,&nbsp;Zicong Miao ,&nbsp;Keyang Li","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107064","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107064","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of digital mergers and acquisitions (M&amp;As) on labor productivity, focusing on the influence of the knowledge distance between merging parties. Using a sample of firms that underwent M&amp;As between 2007 and 2022, we employ the difference-in-differences method to analyze whether digital M&amp;As lead to higher labor productivity than non-digital M&amp;As. Our results show that a longer knowledge distance between merging parties strengthens the positive relationship between digital M&amp;As and labor productivity. Channel tests reveal that digital M&amp;As improve labor productivity through enhanced technological innovation efficiency when knowledge distance is closer and reduce organizational instability when knowledge distance is longer. Moreover, the effects are more pronounced in larger, younger firms and those with higher labor intensity and better talent pools. These findings provide new insights into the outcomes of digital M&amp;As and highlight the critical role of knowledge distance in shaping labor productivity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107064"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143529247","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Scaling and forecasting in a data-driven agent-based model: Applications to the Italian macroeconomy
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107046
Jacopo Di Domenico , Michele Catalano , Luca Riccetti
{"title":"Scaling and forecasting in a data-driven agent-based model: Applications to the Italian macroeconomy","authors":"Jacopo Di Domenico ,&nbsp;Michele Catalano ,&nbsp;Luca Riccetti","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107046","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107046","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Agent-based models typically replicate stylized facts but lack macroeconomic forecasting capabilities. Recent advancements aim to make these models data-driven, enabling predictive applications in macroeconomics. Using data primarily from Eurostat (1996–2019), we calibrate an increasingly popular data-driven model to the Italian economy and evaluate the forecasting performance of macroeconomic variables for both Austria and Italy across various model scales. Our findings show that scale has no impact on forecast accuracy. To enhance the model we test modifications to agents’ expectations and firms’ production plans, and run long-term simulations to explore model dynamics and identify areas for refinement. The results demonstrate the model’s adaptability to different country specifications, with forecasting performance comparable to basic econometric models. Scale analysis and long-term analysis reveal unexplored heterogeneity and suggest that the model should further leverage the potential of agent-based microfoundations to improve forecasting.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107046"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143529283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How does digital technology adoption affect corporate employment? Evidence from China
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107045
Yuwen Zhou , Xin Shi
{"title":"How does digital technology adoption affect corporate employment? Evidence from China","authors":"Yuwen Zhou ,&nbsp;Xin Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107045","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107045","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rapid adoption of digital technologies has sparked debates about their employment effects, yet evidence from developing economies remains limited. Previous studies highlight labor market polarization, where automation disproportionately displaces low-skilled workers while benefiting high-skilled ones. Using text analysis of corporate disclosures, we measure digital adoption across Chinese firms (2010–2019) and estimate its employment impacts. A one standard deviation increase in digital adoption raises corporate employment by 5.47%, driven by shifts toward non-routine cognitive roles and higher-educated employees. Digital adoption also increases average wages but leaves labor share unchanged. Three mechanisms explain these effects: total factor productivity (TFP) gains, market share expansion, and capital deepening, with TFP contributing most strongly. These results reveal how digital technologies reshape employment structures, emphasizing the need for firms to balance technological investments with organizational adaptation to mitigate skill mismatches.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107045"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143529248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimal environmental policy and distortionary fiscal policy interactions: A DSGE perspective
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107037
Mehrab Kiarsi , Nahid Masoudi
{"title":"Optimal environmental policy and distortionary fiscal policy interactions: A DSGE perspective","authors":"Mehrab Kiarsi ,&nbsp;Nahid Masoudi","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107037","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107037","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the interactions between optimal environmental and distortionary fiscal policies within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework using analytical and quantitative methods. We demonstrate that the marginal cost of public funds can exceed, be equal, or fall below one, based on utility specifications and the degree of relative risk aversion. This variation can lead to under-, over-, or optimally taxed environmental damages, with the latter two suggesting the potential for a strong double dividend. Furthermore, we challenge conventional labor tax smoothing theory, showing that a Ramsey-optimal policy allows labor tax volatility in the absence of carbon taxation. Our quantitative analysis reveals that an effective carbon policy reduces fluctuations and significantly mitigates contractions in major economic variables such as GDP, consumption, and welfare in response to environmental shocks. Increased pollution leads to higher emission costs, prompting the Ramsey planner to raise the carbon tax and increase abatement efforts. However, positive government spending or productivity shocks increase the cost of abatement, leading to lower carbon taxes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107037"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143488962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cultural values and interbank markets: An agent-based stock-flow consistent model
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107042
Jessica Reale , Alessio Emanuele Biondo
{"title":"Cultural values and interbank markets: An agent-based stock-flow consistent model","authors":"Jessica Reale ,&nbsp;Alessio Emanuele Biondo","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107042","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107042","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent financial crises have revealed tensions in interbank markets, challenging conventional monetary policies and financial stability. After the sovereign debt crisis, shifts in banks’ funding preferences led to numerous issues in payment systems and European financial integration. Through this study, we analyzed the impact of firms’, households’, and bank managers’ personal values on their financial decisions in credit and interbank markets, highlighting how cultural differences influence financial choices<span><math><mo>−</mo></math></span>a critical factor that remains insufficiently addressed in the existing literature. To address this gap, we incorporated individual values into firms’ and households’ leverage attitudes and banks’ risk-taking behavior, thereby shaping interbank funding maturities and impacting monetary policy outcomes within an agent-based stock-flow consistent framework. The results of this study suggest the following: (i) value distributions featuring risk-averse banks and prudent households promote economic growth; however, they do so at the cost of increasing shock vulnerabilities; (ii) cultural diversity may challenge interest rate steering policies; (iii) imbalanced cultural distributions exhibit divergent speeds of adjustment and require tailored monetary policies to mitigate the disproportionate effects on culturally diverse economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107042"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143478492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An interest rate rule following the natural rate of interest for optimal monetary policy
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107040
Jeong Eui Suh
{"title":"An interest rate rule following the natural rate of interest for optimal monetary policy","authors":"Jeong Eui Suh","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107040","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107040","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The natural rate of interest (NRI) plays a critical role in maintaining stable and effective monetary policy. However, its unobservable nature has led most research to focus on quantitative methods for identifying its shifts, leaving theoretical approaches relatively underexplored. This study addresses this gap by examining how a central bank can implement optimal monetary policy within the New Keynesian framework by tracking NRI fluctuations after real shocks. The analysis demonstrates that when economic agents have strong confidence in policy consistency, the central bank can accurately detect NRI shifts within two periods, regardless of the type of real shocks. This finding implies that adopting an NRI-based interest rate rule may contribute to enhancing policy effectiveness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107040"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143478491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What is the role of profit and luxury consumption in the ecological transition?
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107050
Federica Cappelli , Stefano Di Bucchianico
{"title":"What is the role of profit and luxury consumption in the ecological transition?","authors":"Federica Cappelli ,&nbsp;Stefano Di Bucchianico","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107050","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107050","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Empirical evidence has demonstrated the essential role of income distribution and richer households’ consumption patterns in determining excessive consumption–generated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To analyse this issue at the theoretical level, we employ the distinction between subsistence and luxury emissions and examine the connection between income distribution and environmentally wasteful emissions caused by luxury consumption. In our model, physical surplus production makes room for positive profitability. Income in the form of profits enables wasteful luxury consumption and boosts consumption–generated GHG emissions. We illustrate greener consumption, reformist and just transition scenarios to delineate social and environmental boundaries. Only the just transition scenario is found to be a viable option to respect both boundaries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107050"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143527453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A generalized constant elasticity of volatility and correlation ratio (CEVC) model: Empirical evidence and application for portfolio optimization
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107039
Marcos Escobar-Anel
{"title":"A generalized constant elasticity of volatility and correlation ratio (CEVC) model: Empirical evidence and application for portfolio optimization","authors":"Marcos Escobar-Anel","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107039","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107039","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study developed a multivariate continuous-time model enabling a generalized constant elasticity of volatility (CEV) model on the marginal and a new stylized fact named constant elasticity of correlation ratio (CEC) in the dependence structure. Therefore, the entire structure is called the generalized constant elasticity of volatility and correlation ratio (CEVC) model. The model inherited the usefulness of the one-dimensional CEV model for pricing and portfolio optimization purposes. It enhances this model to ensure better-behaved volatility of returns. A unique weak solution exists for the multidimensional stochastic differential equations. Empirical analysis indicates the significance of the elasticity parameters driving the CEVC model and insights into the dynamics of volatilities and correlations. We estimated the embedded n-dimensional generalized CEV model (i.e., no CEC), the CEC model (i.e., no CEV), and the geometric Brownian motion (GBM, no CEC or CEV). The model was applied to portfolio optimization based on expected utility theory. The findings yield closed-form solutions for optimal strategies and value functions compared to other models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107039"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143464735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Demographic change and long-term economic growth path in Asia
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107043
Jong-Wha Lee , Eunbi Song
{"title":"Demographic change and long-term economic growth path in Asia","authors":"Jong-Wha Lee ,&nbsp;Eunbi Song","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107043","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107043","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Asia faces significant demographic challenges with uncertain economic implications. This study projects the economic trajectories of major Asian economies over 50 years using a growth model focused on demographic change. It provides a practical, tractable growth projection framework that avoids complex dynamic optimization. Utilizing historical data, this framework consists physical and human capital accumulation, technological progress, and labor-capital substitution. While a slowing labor force poses challenges, it does not predetermine Asia's growth prospects. The simulation results highlight the importance of technological progress and physical and human capital investment in mitigating demographic impacts. Projections suggest China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate will decline to 0.9–2.5% during 2051–2070. China will surpass Japan in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)-adjusted GDP per capita by 2050 and approach about 90% of the US level by 2070. India is projected to outpace the US in GDP by 2050 and potentially surpass China by 2070.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107043"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143527454","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Types of employment and well-being of rural residents: A multinomial endogenous switching regression application
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107047
Wanglin Ma , Hongyun Zheng , David Boansi , Godwin S.A.K. Horlu , Victor Owusu
{"title":"Types of employment and well-being of rural residents: A multinomial endogenous switching regression application","authors":"Wanglin Ma ,&nbsp;Hongyun Zheng ,&nbsp;David Boansi ,&nbsp;Godwin S.A.K. Horlu ,&nbsp;Victor Owusu","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107047","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107047","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how participation in different types of employment affects rural residents' well-being, measured by household income and life satisfaction. Unlike previous studies that only consider binary employment status, we measure three employment types (pure farm work, mixed work, and pure non-farm work). Using the Chinese Social Survey data, we employ a multinomial endogenous switching regression model to address selection bias issues due to observed and unobserved heterogeneities and estimate the treatment effects simultaneously. The results suggest that relative to pure farm work, participation in pure non-farm work and mixed work significantly increases rural residents' well-being by increasing household income and life satisfaction. We also find that the income and life satisfaction enhancing effects of participation in pure non-farm work and mixed work (relative to participation in pure farm work) are generally larger for males (relative to females). These findings enrich our understanding of rural residents' employment choices. Rural development programs should consider helping pure farm workers (especially rural women) to participate in mixed and non-farm work to maximize rural residents’ well-being and boost sustainable rural development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107047"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143520801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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