Economic Modelling最新文献

Volatility regimes and jumps in crude oil futures: Uncovering how market shocks trigger extreme comovements 原油期货的波动机制和跳跃：揭示市场冲击如何引发极端波动

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107532

Haoyu Shi, Xu Zheng, Yuansheng Wang

引用次数: 0

Digital transformation and enterprise mergers and acquisitions: Mechanism tests and empirical evidence 数字化转型与企业并购：机制检验与经验证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107528

Mengyu Shi , Qiong Xu , Yu Shi , Jiamin Yan

引用次数: 0

Innovation-economic trade-offs:A perspective of low-carbon policy intensity 创新与经济的权衡：低碳政策强度的视角

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107527

Hao Wang , Li-Jing Liu

{"title":"Innovation-economic trade-offs:A perspective of low-carbon policy intensity","authors":"Hao Wang , Li-Jing Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107527","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107527","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Existing literature emphasizes low-carbon policy implementation and benefits but overlooks intensity effects and trade-offs. This study introduces a low-carbon policy intensity index, a composite indicator of stringency and prioritization, to analyze the effects of policy intensity on city-level carbon total factor productivity and identify potential trade-offs. The analysis demonstrates spatial heterogeneity in policy effectiveness, with less-developed, resource-dependent, and small cities exhibiting heightened responsiveness to rigorous measures. Key mechanisms include green technology innovation and efficiency catch-up effects. However, two trade-offs emerge: (1) innovation tends to prioritize quantity over quality; (2) industrial restructuring generates short-term economic transition pressures. Scenario analysis shows that economic structural adjustment—particularly electricity optimization can mitigate these dilemmas by sustaining growth while curbing emissions. These findings demonstrate that shifting from nominal policy adoption to structural reforms and optimized intensity is key to balancing economic and environmental goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 107527"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146192867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The two sides of inflation: How price increases and price cuts shape inflation 通货膨胀的两面性：价格上涨和降价如何影响通货膨胀

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107533

Ricardo Quineche , Juan Zapata

{"title":"The two sides of inflation: How price increases and price cuts shape inflation","authors":"Ricardo Quineche , Juan Zapata","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107533","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107533","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Inflation reflects the balance between firms raising and cutting prices, yet analyses focus only on aggregate rates, obscuring how pricing pressures transmit shocks. Existing decompositions use factor models or sign restrictions but lack transparent linkage to observed sectoral pricing decisions. Using 245 U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures sub-indices spanning 1959–2024, we decompose inflation into upward and downward pricing pressures. We document fundamental asymmetry: inflationary pressure exhibits dramatic variation (2.35% to 12.68%) while deflationary pressure remains remarkably stable (0.72% to 5.18%). Informationally robust contractionary monetary policy operates through dual channels — restraining price increases and encouraging price cuts — with deflationary pressure peaking at 0.5 percentage points and remaining elevated for one year, resolving the price puzzle. Supply shocks operate primarily through price increases. These distinct mechanisms challenge symmetric views of inflation dynamics across shock types. The framework provides central banks real-time diagnostic tools for evaluating transmission and identifying inflation sources.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 107533"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146192869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Does the digital economy amplify household income uncertainty? Evidence from China 数字经济是否放大了家庭收入的不确定性？来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107518

Chenzhe Zhai , Debao Hu , Junting Dong , Ming Jin

引用次数: 0

From conflict to creativity: US-China trade war and Chinese corporate innovation 从冲突到创新：中美贸易战与中国企业创新

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107526

Jian Du , Xingye Jin , Jing Li , Xinyi Shen

{"title":"From conflict to creativity: US-China trade war and Chinese corporate innovation","authors":"Jian Du , Xingye Jin , Jing Li , Xinyi Shen","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107526","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107526","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Enterprises worldwide are facing the shock of anti-globalization, but there is little literature exploring the impact of the trade war on corporate innovation. In this paper, we first build a theoretical model to analyze the impact of the trade war on innovation. Then, we use detailed patent data of Chinese listed companies between 2015 and 2021, and find that the trade war does not affect corporate R&D expenditure, but significantly increases their patent output and patent quality. These results still hold after a battery of endogeneity tests. Next, we reveal that the Chinese government plays an important role in promoting corporate innovation during the trade war. Moreover, the trade war does not lead firms to shift their innovation pathways but increases high-end patents and collaborative innovation. Finally, heterogeneity analyses show that the trade war leads to more patents and patent citations for firms with higher economic policy uncertainty perception, less severe management myopia, and more intermediate goods import, but it has no impact on the R&D expenditures of any type of firms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 107526"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146192866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Can industrial technology convergence facilitate firms' international expansion? Firm-level empirical evidence from China 产业技术融合能促进企业的国际扩张吗？来自中国的企业层面的实证证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107524

Mudan Lan , Yuhong Huang

{"title":"Can industrial technology convergence facilitate firms' international expansion? Firm-level empirical evidence from China","authors":"Mudan Lan , Yuhong Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107524","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107524","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Amid rising global economic uncertainty, firms' international expansion faces mounting challenges, while the convergence of digital and real industries offers fresh strategic opportunities for high-level openness. Using data from Chinese listed firms, this study examines how such convergence shapes outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). Empirical results show that convergence significantly boosts both the probability and scale of OFDI, with this effect being greater in regions with strict intellectual property protection, high-technology industries, and export-oriented enterprises. Mechanism tests indicate that improvements in total factor productivity and easing of financing constraints are key drivers. Further evidence suggests convergence stimulates cross-border mergers and acquisitions and enhances overseas revenues. This research enriches understanding of the nexus between technology convergence and internationalization, offering policy insights for emerging economies to leverage the digital economy to strengthen global competitiveness. More broadly, the integration of digital and real industries will remain a vital catalyst for firms’ international growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 107524"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146135739","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Accumulating cross-border M&A experience and its impact on enterprise innovation: Evidence from China 跨国并购经验积累及其对企业创新的影响：来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107529

Jing Li , Yibing Ding , Yingjie Fu

{"title":"Accumulating cross-border M&A experience and its impact on enterprise innovation: Evidence from China","authors":"Jing Li , Yibing Ding , Yingjie Fu","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107529","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107529","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accumulating cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) experience reflects a dynamic learning process for firms, yet its impact on innovation remains uncertain. Using data on Chinese firms involved in cross-border M&A from 2009 to 2020, this study investigates how accumulated M&A experience influences corporate innovation. The findings show that M&A experience significantly enhances innovation performance. Mechanism analyses suggest that accumulated experience promotes innovation by easing growth pressure and strengthening resource competitiveness, while R&D manipulation weakens this positive effect. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that the impact is stronger for state-owned enterprises, firms with low R&D capacity, and those undertaking M&A within the same industry. Both technology-oriented and non-technology-oriented M&A experience are found to contribute to innovation. Overall, this study enriches the literature by offering new evidence on how accumulated cross-border M&A experience fosters innovation and provides insights for firms seeking to enhance innovation through international expansion.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 107529"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146192864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Big reforms, big returns? Evidence from structural reform shocks 大改革，大回报？结构性改革冲击的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107484

Alessio Terzi , Marco Pasquale Marrazzo

引用次数: 0

Climate policy uncertainty and macroeconomic dynamics: Financial amplification and state-dependent effects 气候政策不确定性和宏观经济动态：金融放大效应和国家依赖效应

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107523

Facundo Luna Mallea

引用次数: 0