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Spatial regimes in heterogeneous territories: The efficiency of local public spending 异质地区的空间制度：地方公共支出的效率
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107139
Francesco Vidoli , Agnese Sacchi , Edgar J. Sanchez Carrera
{"title":"Spatial regimes in heterogeneous territories: The efficiency of local public spending","authors":"Francesco Vidoli ,&nbsp;Agnese Sacchi ,&nbsp;Edgar J. Sanchez Carrera","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107139","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107139","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the impact of spatial heterogeneity on cost efficiency in Italian municipalities, introducing an original method to identify functionally homogeneous territorial areas that differ from existing administrative boundaries. Our method incorporates territorial and geographical dimensions, including latent variables associated with spatial heterogeneity—relevant factors yet often overlooked in previous empirical studies. Using spatial data on road and territory planning services, we identify clusters of municipalities with shared characteristics and measure their relative efficiency within these clusters. Our findings reveal marked territorial disparities in cost efficiency, challenging conventional one-against-all benchmarking methods. Unlike standard approaches that compare each municipality with all others, our method offers a more accurate basis for evaluating municipal performance and informing policy decisions on services to citizens. This contributes to a more effective and equitable allocation of public resources, addressing practical and methodological limitations in the existing literature.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107139"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144168066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Macroeconomic impacts of climate change: A semi-structural analysis of unexpected weather conditions in Korea 气候变化的宏观经济影响：韩国意外天气条件的半结构分析
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107131
Dukpa Kim , Yun Jung Kim
{"title":"Macroeconomic impacts of climate change: A semi-structural analysis of unexpected weather conditions in Korea","authors":"Dukpa Kim ,&nbsp;Yun Jung Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107131","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107131","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates how unexpected weather conditions influence macroeconomic activity, addressing the need to better understand the structural nature of weather-induced economic shocks. While prior research has relied on reduced-form regressions or structural models, the underlying mechanisms often remain ambiguous or model-dependent. We propose a semi-structural approach that combines a structural vector autoregression model of the Korean economy with reduced-form regressions linking identified structural shocks to unexpected weather conditions, measured as deviations from historical norms. Our analysis reveals that cold events – heating degree days, freezing degree days, and frost – are associated with adverse supply shocks, while storms and dust storms manifest as demand shocks. These results highlight that the type of macroeconomic shock triggered by weather depends on both the event’s nature and societal resilience. By uncovering the mechanisms through which weather events propagate through the economy, our findings offer a foundation for more targeted and adaptive climate policy responses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107131"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144168067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What shapes greenium in bond markets? Evidence from Japan 在债券市场上，是什么塑造了格林？来自日本的证据
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107159
Urol Berdiev
{"title":"What shapes greenium in bond markets? Evidence from Japan","authors":"Urol Berdiev","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107159","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107159","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, we investigate whether green bonds are issued at lower yield spreads compared to conventional bonds—a phenomenon referred to as the “greenium”. Despite years of research, the existence of a greenium remains inconclusive. To contribute to this ongoing debate, we analyse data from Japan's primary corporate bond market between 2016 and 2023, employing multivariate regression models to assess yield differentials at issuance. We find that the greenium is not universal; it appears only for firms with strong environmental performance, with yield spreads that are 7–17 basis points lower on average. However, the greenium disappears after 2021, coinciding with rising greenwashing concerns and widening global yield spreads. While demand for green bonds appears to matter for the greenium, the post-liquidity difference has little impact. These findings indicate that sustainability performance can influence capital costs, and that credibility and transparency play key roles in maintaining investor trust in green finance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107159"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144147555","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Capital reallocation and sustainable growth with ambiguity to disaster risk 灾害风险模糊下的资本再配置与可持续增长
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107136
Yanming Yao , Yuan Tian
{"title":"Capital reallocation and sustainable growth with ambiguity to disaster risk","authors":"Yanming Yao ,&nbsp;Yuan Tian","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107136","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107136","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We formulate a two-sector general equilibrium model that incorporates capital reallocation and ambiguity aversion to disaster risk under recursive utility. We demonstrate how capital distribution between green and brown sectors influences endogenous investment, growth rate, risk-free rate, and uncertainty premium. Moreover, we reveal that ambiguity aversion to disaster risk accelerates capital reallocation, thus explaining the rapid green transformation during the ambiguous circumstances. Furthermore, we find that although the marginal growth rate associated with capital reallocation decreases at the sectoral level, it increases at the aggregate level, implying that capital reallocation contributes to sustainable growth. Our findings also reveal that the disaster uncertainty premium, comprising disaster risk premium and ambiguity premium, is additive even though the utility is not.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107136"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144124765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Long-run effects of super low fertility on housing markets 超低生育率对房地产市场的长期影响
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107125
Jangyoun Lee , Hyunduk Suh
{"title":"Long-run effects of super low fertility on housing markets","authors":"Jangyoun Lee ,&nbsp;Hyunduk Suh","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107125","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107125","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The total fertility rate (TFR) in Korea fell to the historically lowest value of 0.72, reaching the state of <em>super low fertility</em>, also similarly observed in other East Asian countries. We quantitatively assess future implications of super low fertility on housing markets using an overlapping generations (OLG) general equilibrium model, which features housing markets and demographic transitions. The results predict that while the current housing boom will continue in the near future, real housing prices will eventually decline after 2035 because of low fertility. Among government policies, increasing the housing supply or the birth rate can mitigate this long-term housing boom-bust cycle and is welfare-improving for currently young generations. Meanwhile, stricter caps on the LTV ratio are ineffective in stabilizing the housing cycle and welfare-reducing except for older generations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 107125"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144107978","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Hodrick–Prescott filter with automatically selected breaks Hodrick-Prescott过滤器，自动选择断点
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107132
Paolo Maranzano , Matteo Pelagatti
{"title":"A Hodrick–Prescott filter with automatically selected breaks","authors":"Paolo Maranzano ,&nbsp;Matteo Pelagatti","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107132","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107132","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Hodrick–Prescott filter is a popular tool in macroeconomics for decomposing a time series into a smooth trend and a business cycle component. The last few years have witnessed global events, such as the Global Financial Crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine, that have had abrupt structural impacts on many economic time series. Moreover, new regulations and policy changes generally lead to similar behaviours. Thus, those events should be absorbed by the trend component of the trend-cycle decomposition, but the Hodrick–Prescott filter does not allow for breaks. We propose a modification of the Hodrick–Prescott filter that contemplates breaks and automatically selects the time points in which the breaks occur. We provide efficient implementation of the new filter in an R package. We use our new filter to assess what Italian labour market reforms impacted employment in different age groups.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 107132"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144107977","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
CEO locality and R&D investment efficiency: Evidence from China CEO地域性与研发投资效率：来自中国的证据
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107153
Yue Cao , Yancen Dong , Wenrui Chen , Jiaqian Fu , Huitao Luo
{"title":"CEO locality and R&D investment efficiency: Evidence from China","authors":"Yue Cao ,&nbsp;Yancen Dong ,&nbsp;Wenrui Chen ,&nbsp;Jiaqian Fu ,&nbsp;Huitao Luo","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107153","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107153","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of CEO locality on R&amp;D investment efficiency, addressing the underexplored economic impacts of informal managerial characteristics in corporate decision-making. Using data from Chinese A-share listed firms from 2008 to 2020, we find that CEO locality significantly reduces upward distortion in R&amp;D expense manipulation, driven by alleviating information asymmetry and managerial myopia. The mitigating effect is more pronounced in firms with higher board ownership and greater cash reserves, in regions with robust legal systems, closer to local regulatory authorities, and in cultural environments characterized by Confucian and collaborative values. Moreover, local CEOs’ efforts to curb R&amp;D manipulation can curb opportunistic innovation activities, thereby mitigating innovation bubbles. These findings not only shed new light on the role of informal institutions in corporate governance but also provide implications for executive recruitment strategies and innovation oversight policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 107153"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144116848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bank fintech and lending distance: The role of information asymmetry and risk management channels 银行金融科技与借贷距离：信息不对称与风险管理渠道的作用
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107154
Jue Feng , Wenniu Jiao , Yingdong Wang
{"title":"Bank fintech and lending distance: The role of information asymmetry and risk management channels","authors":"Jue Feng ,&nbsp;Wenniu Jiao ,&nbsp;Yingdong Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107154","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107154","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the impact of bank fintech on lending distance by using loan data from Chinese listed firms and commercial banks between 2013 and 2022, along with commercial bank fintech patent data. The findings indicate that bank fintech effectively increases the lending distance between banks and enterprises, primarily by reducing information asymmetry and enhancing risk management capacity. This is particularly evident for enterprises located in regions with scarce financial resources, enterprises in their growth or maturity stages, large-scale enterprises, and large state-owned commercial banks. Additionally, the increase in lending distance driven by bank fintech is associated with an extension in firms’ debt maturity, without a corresponding increase in the probability of default. These findings not only provide empirical evidence for implementing and promoting fintech development plans, but also offer valuable insights into the synchronized high-quality development of the financial industry and the real economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107154"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144168065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Volatility shocks in markets and policies: What matters for a small open economy like Canada? 市场和政策的波动冲击：对加拿大这样的小型开放经济体来说，什么重要？
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107124
Jamie Cross, Timothy Kam, Aubrey Poon
{"title":"Volatility shocks in markets and policies: What matters for a small open economy like Canada?","authors":"Jamie Cross,&nbsp;Timothy Kam,&nbsp;Aubrey Poon","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107124","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107124","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We structurally estimate how much stochastic-volatility, relative to first-moment shocks, account for policy, demand or supply fluctuations in Canada. The historical Canadian business cycle is largely due to domestic technology and policy shocks. Time-varying volatilities dominate during times of turmoil and policy-environment changes. Our model-based shock-volatility accounting attributes the early 1980s crisis to international, cost-push, and monetary-policy shock volatilities; the adoption of inflation targeting in the early 1990s to monetary-policy uncertainty; the recessions around the early 1980s and 1990s to investment volatility; and income-tax and capital-gains tax reforms involve relatively large tax-policy uncertainty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107124"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144138223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Goal-oriented preferences for green bonds: A model of sustainable investment strategies 绿色债券的目标导向偏好：可持续投资策略模型
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107128
An Chen , Yusha Chen , Thai Nguyen , Gazi Salah Uddin
{"title":"Goal-oriented preferences for green bonds: A model of sustainable investment strategies","authors":"An Chen ,&nbsp;Yusha Chen ,&nbsp;Thai Nguyen ,&nbsp;Gazi Salah Uddin","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107128","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107128","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Addressing climate change requires a transition to low-carbon, climate-resilient investments, with green bonds gaining traction among institutional investors focused on sustainability objectives. This study models their decision-making by integrating green investment targets into utility functions, combining a constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) component with a goal-oriented utility modification. Employing a Lagrangian approach, we derive the optimal terminal wealth and portfolio composition, including green bond allocation. Contrary to common intuition, more ambitious green investment targets do not always yield greater green bond allocations. The outcome significantly hinges on investors’ risk aversion. This intricate interaction between risk aversion and goal-oriented utility reveals the complexity of green investment decisions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 107128"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144107975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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