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Did the American Rescue Plan cause inflation? A synthetic control approach 美国救援计划导致了通货膨胀吗？合成控制方法
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2024-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106935
Dong Gyun Ko
{"title":"Did the American Rescue Plan cause inflation? A synthetic control approach","authors":"Dong Gyun Ko","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106935","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106935","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the fiscal impact of the American Rescue Plan (ARP) on the post-pandemic surge in U.S. inflation. In the existing literature, the dominant strategy for identifying inflation determinants is through structural or reduced-form equation modeling; however, a definitive consensus on the causes of the U.S. inflationary episode remains elusive due to a lack of data-driven counterfactual analysis. To address this gap, we uniquely apply a synthetic control approach to estimate the causal effect of the ARP on U.S. inflation. The findings reveal that the ARP excessively stimulates aggregate demand via large-scale unfunded transfers, causing U.S. inflation to deviate upward from its counterfactual path. Moreover, this policy intervention significantly elevates inflation expectations and diminishes consumer confidence, thereby activating the fiscal limit mechanism: unfunded fiscal shocks, combined with waning fiscal credibility, lead private agents to anticipate that national debt will be inflated away, resulting in large and persistent inflation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"143 ","pages":"Article 106935"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142721002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Grandchild care and grandparents’ labor supply 孙辈照料和祖父母的劳动力供给
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106936
Yanran Chen , Youji Lyu
{"title":"Grandchild care and grandparents’ labor supply","authors":"Yanran Chen ,&nbsp;Youji Lyu","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106936","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106936","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Grandchild care is becoming an increasingly important part of raising children as the population ages and the cost of parenting increases. However, the labor supply effect of grandchild care on grandparents remains understudied. This study aims to identify the causal impact of grandchild care on grandparents’ labor supply in China. The main estimates demonstrate that providing grandchild care would significantly and intensively crowd out grandparents’ labor supply, particularly for grandmothers. Further heterogeneity analyses suggest that the negative labor supply effect varies by employment status and sector, regional characteristics, and grandparents’ demographic features. The paper also demonstrates that the negative labor supply effect operates via two pathways: reduced old-age income and increased adult children’s income, with the latter dominating the former. Moreover, the findings show that increased grandchild care is associated with a lower incidence of financial transfers from parents to grandparents.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"143 ","pages":"Article 106936"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142705719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The cyclicality of the finance premium over the business cycle 融资溢价在商业周期中的周期性
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2024-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106943
George J. Bratsiotis , Chashika D. Kalubowila
{"title":"The cyclicality of the finance premium over the business cycle","authors":"George J. Bratsiotis ,&nbsp;Chashika D. Kalubowila","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106943","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106943","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the main determinants of the cyclicality of the finance premium in the <em>cost channel</em> framework, which has received less attention in the literature. We decompose the finance premium into a <em>cost effect</em> and a <em>leverage effect.</em> We show that in both the cost channel model and the credit channel model (Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist 1999), the cyclicality of the finance premium is determined mainly by the size and sign of the <em>leverage effect</em>. Some key factors that determine the leverage effect are, the nature of shocks, the degree of loan persistence in relation to output or net worth, and the stance of monetary policy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"142 ","pages":"Article 106943"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142703859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Disentangling the heterogeneous effect of natural resources on economic growth 厘清自然资源对经济增长的异质性影响
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2024-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106927
Daniel Aparicio-Pérez , Jordi Ripollés
{"title":"Disentangling the heterogeneous effect of natural resources on economic growth","authors":"Daniel Aparicio-Pérez ,&nbsp;Jordi Ripollés","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106927","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106927","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Previous studies on the impact of natural resources on economic growth have produced mixed results, which could be partly explained by unobserved heterogeneity that has not been adequately accounted for. This paper aims to identify this heterogeneity in the resource-growth nexus and explore the potential factors driving it. Using a panel dataset of 97 countries from 1990 to 2019, we apply a grouped fixed-effects estimator to identify groups of countries with distinct time-varying growth patterns and differing economic responses to natural resource wealth. We then use an ordered probit model to examine the drivers of this heterogeneity, focusing on institutional factors and other transmission channels. Our findings show that economic and political institutions, social capital, and export diversification are key to explaining group membership, with some groups experiencing positive and others negative resource-growth effects. This underscores the need to account for unobserved heterogeneity and consider institutional quality as multidimensional.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"142 ","pages":"Article 106927"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142703857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A spatial one-sided error model to identify where unarrested criminals live 确定未被捕罪犯居住地的空间单边误差模型
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106929
Alejandro Puerta-Cuartas , Andrés Ramírez-Hassan
{"title":"A spatial one-sided error model to identify where unarrested criminals live","authors":"Alejandro Puerta-Cuartas ,&nbsp;Andrés Ramírez-Hassan","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106929","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106929","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The place of residence of unarrested criminals is mostly unknown. Existing research has not yet exploited that arrested criminals are a lower bound for criminals to enhance law enforcement and design structural policies. Based upon the stochastic frontier analysis, we propose a model to identify neighborhoods where unarrested criminals are likelier to live. We illustrate our approach empirically by considering Medellín, Colombia, a natural experimental field to analyze crime. We identify that unarrested murderers and drug dealers often reside in overlapping or neighboring areas with shared risk factors, reflecting the city’s history of drug-related violence. In addition, we find that employment policies targeting the young and unemployed living in the central-east and the north can mitigate homicides and motorcycle thefts. These findings illustrate how our proposal can be implemented to strengthen state capacities and design targeted, place-based policies for preventing and mitigating crime.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"142 ","pages":"Article 106929"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142703856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Understanding the informal economy: The influence of political ideology during financial crises 了解非正规经济：金融危机期间政治意识形态的影响
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106934
Thanh Cong Nguyen , Thuy Tien Ho
{"title":"Understanding the informal economy: The influence of political ideology during financial crises","authors":"Thanh Cong Nguyen ,&nbsp;Thuy Tien Ho","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106934","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106934","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates both the short- and long-run impact of different types of financial crises on the size of the informal economy, addressing the gap in the crisis-informality relationship. Using a sample of 320 financial crises in 146 countries over the period 1993–2020, we provide evidence that financial crises lead to a persistent increase in the size of the informal economy, confirming that the hidden economy serves as both a safety net for household income and a crisis amplifier. Rising unemployment and prolonged financial crises, especially debt crises, are mechanisms that explain these results. Left-wing governments’ policies, by promoting labour rights and protections, reduce labour market flexibility and consequently expand the informal economy during financial crises. These findings benefit policymakers by offering new insights into the crisis-informality relationship and the influence of political ideology.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"142 ","pages":"Article 106934"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142703853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Anatomy of wage rigidity in China: Lessons from the global financial crisis for post-pandemic recovery 中国工资刚性的剖析：全球金融危机对大流行后复苏的启示
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2024-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106932
Jian Ding , Yixiao Zhou
{"title":"Anatomy of wage rigidity in China: Lessons from the global financial crisis for post-pandemic recovery","authors":"Jian Ding ,&nbsp;Yixiao Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106932","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106932","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the extent and cause of Chinese firms’ labour cost adjustment during the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC). First, we confirm that some typical features of downward nominal wage rigidity during the recession period coincide with the implementation of the Labour Contract Law, covering wages and social security payments. Second, we find that firms with higher shares of casual workers could lower their labour cost more effectively. The overall results demonstrate that the Quantitative Easing programme was necessary for counteracting the economic downturn during the GFC. Therefore, the length of this on-going crisis would be affected by wage rigidity in the economy. This study has implications for addressing the economic downturn in China following the COVID-19 pandemic, which is characterised by a high level of unemployment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"142 ","pages":"Article 106932"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142703858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A long short-term memory enhanced realized conditional heteroskedasticity model 长短期记忆增强型实现条件异方差模型
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106922
Chen Liu , Chao Wang , Minh-Ngoc Tran , Robert Kohn
{"title":"A long short-term memory enhanced realized conditional heteroskedasticity model","authors":"Chen Liu ,&nbsp;Chao Wang ,&nbsp;Minh-Ngoc Tran ,&nbsp;Robert Kohn","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106922","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106922","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the potential of using realized volatility measures for capturing financial markets’ uncertainty. Earlier studies show the usefulness of the high-frequency data based Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (RealGARCH) model for enhancing volatility forecasting accuracy; however, this model focuses only on linear and short-term dependencies of realized volatility measures on the underlying volatility. Recognizing the critical economic implications of this limitation, the long short-term memory neural network is integrated into RealGARCH, aiming to explore the full impact of realized volatility on volatility modeling and forecasting via capturing the nonlinear and long-term effects. A comprehensive empirical study using 31 indices from 2004 to 2021 is conducted. The results demonstrate that our proposed framework achieves superior in-sample and out-of-sample performance compared to several benchmark models. Importantly, it retains interpretability and effectively adapts to the stylized facts observed in volatility, emphasizing its significant potential for enhancing economic decision-making and risk management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"142 ","pages":"Article 106922"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142703854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Gatekeeping in primary care: Analysing GP referral patterns and specialist consultations in the NHS 初级保健中的把关：分析全科医生转诊模式和国家医疗服务体系中的专家会诊
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106925
Federico Innocenti , Barry McCormick , Catia Nicodemo
{"title":"Gatekeeping in primary care: Analysing GP referral patterns and specialist consultations in the NHS","authors":"Federico Innocenti ,&nbsp;Barry McCormick ,&nbsp;Catia Nicodemo","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106925","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106925","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of increasing the number of gatekeeper General Practitioners (GPs) on referral rates and specialist treatments. Gatekeeping is a supply-side strategy implemented to control health expenditure and improve efficiency by limiting patient access to services below marginal cost. It aims to address specialist moral hazard by reducing the overuse of expensive diagnostics and replacing them with more cost-effective GP diagnostic information. Using administrative data from 2004 to 2011, we examine whether the availability of gatekeeper GPs in local areas is associated with changes in outpatient referrals and elective admissions. Our findings reveal that increasing GP supply in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas leads to a decrease in both outpatient referrals and elective admissions. However, these effects are less pronounced in prosperous areas or regions with high GP referral rates. Interestingly, we observe that having more GP practices in a specific area implies higher referral rates and elective admissions. These findings offer valuable insights that can assist policymakers in crafting targeted policies to effectively reduce healthcare costs and enhance the overall efficiency of the health system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"142 ","pages":"Article 106925"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142703855","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Perverse Valuation Effect on Mergers and Acquisitions in Europe 欧洲并购的反向估值效应
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2024-11-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106928
Fabio E.G. Röhrer , Lebogang Mateane , Christian R. Proaño
{"title":"The Perverse Valuation Effect on Mergers and Acquisitions in Europe","authors":"Fabio E.G. Röhrer ,&nbsp;Lebogang Mateane ,&nbsp;Christian R. Proaño","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106928","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106928","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the macroeconomic and financial determinants of mergers and acquisitions (M&amp;A) in Europe and address the gap in understanding how financial market dynamics influence corporate decisions. While previous literature has examined macroeconomic factors affecting M&amp;A, the impact of (10-year government) bond yields remains underexplored. We fill this gap using panel data of 21 European Union Countries over 2006:Q1–2022:Q2. Across different model specifications we find that bond yields and real gross domestic product growth are robust determinants of M&amp;A, even after controlling for other determinants. A novelty of our study is that rising and higher bond yields are associated with a reduction in M&amp;A activity because investors are shifting their portfolios out of bonds and into riskier assets like equities, thereby increasing acquisition costs. We denote this as a “perverse valuation effect” offering new insights into M&amp;A dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"142 ","pages":"Article 106928"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142703860","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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