Economic Modelling最新文献_第2页

How population aging and digital transformation reshape labor income share? Mechanisms of firm-level substitution and urban job expansion 人口老龄化和数字化转型如何重塑劳动收入份额？企业层面替代与城镇就业扩张机制

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107517

Qing Guo , Xiangquan Zeng , Lulu Yuan

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引用次数: 0

How poverty alleviation improved girls’ school completion in rural China? The role of health 扶贫如何提高中国农村女童的学业完成率？健康的作用

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107515

Tiantian Dai , Shenyi Jiang , Chao Ma , Yang Ming

引用次数: 0

Bridging divides with data: Open government data and ESG rating divergence 用数据弥合分歧：政府公开数据与ESG评级分歧

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107491

Ximeng Liu, Fengzheng Wang, Youtao Xiang

引用次数: 0

How do free trade agreements affect firms’ export values? Insights into the mechanisms of trade costs and export stability 自由贸易协定如何影响企业的出口价值？贸易成本与出口稳定机制的洞察

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107487

Yunyan Wei , Wen Yue

引用次数: 0

Labour market concentration and posted wages: Evidence on wage-setting power from a large online recruitment platform in China 劳动力市场集中度与公示工资：来自中国某大型在线招聘平台的工资制定力证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107482

Xuan Liu, Xiangquan Zeng

引用次数: 0

A Bayesian synthetic control method via horseshoe priors 基于马蹄形先验的贝叶斯综合控制方法

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107502

Xiaohua Ma , Qibing Gao , Jun Wang , Mingquan Wang , Chunhua Zhu

{"title":"A Bayesian synthetic control method via horseshoe priors","authors":"Xiaohua Ma , Qibing Gao , Jun Wang , Mingquan Wang , Chunhua Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107502","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107502","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper provides a novel Bayesian synthetic control method (BSCM) that integrates a horseshoe prior (H-BSCM) with a panel interactive fixed effects model for policy evaluation involving multiple treated units and staggered treatment timing. Counterfactual posterior distributions are constructed within a Bayesian panel interactive fixed effects framework, with horseshoe priors added to address sparsity in panel data. The new H-BSCM naturally quantifies heterogeneous policy effects while enabling effective variable selection. We further discuss an extension that incorporates hierarchical group structures. Monte Carlo simulations reveal that H-BSCM outperforms existing methods in uncertainty estimation and signal identification. Additional empirical applications across different fields confirm the method’s adaptability. An application to China’s Sulfur Dioxide Emissions Trading Pilot Scheme indicates that the policy significantly reduced industrial <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>SO</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> emissions, with effects that vary across regions and over time. Overall, the results highlight the effectiveness and practical applicability of the proposed methodology for policy evaluation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 107502"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Digital supply chains and firm market performance: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China 数字供应链与企业市场绩效：来自中国准自然实验的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107490

Feng Yun , Jinyu Chen , Shuzhen Liang , Mingxun Liu

{"title":"Digital supply chains and firm market performance: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China","authors":"Feng Yun , Jinyu Chen , Shuzhen Liang , Mingxun Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107490","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107490","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In response to global supply chain restructuring in recent years, China has committed to promoting firm supply chain upgrades through digital technologies. In this paper, we employ China’s Supply Chain Innovation and Application policy (SCIA) as a quasi-natural experiment to examine how supply chain reform affects firms’ market performance. Analyzing data from Chinese A-share listed companies (2014–2022) through a difference-in-difference model, we find that: (1) supply chain reform significantly enhances firms’ operating income and product market performance; (2) the positive impact is more pronounced in firms with higher upstreamness, lower customer stability, those operating in non-high-tech manufacturing sectors, and those with lower initial digitalization levels; (3) the efficacy of supply chain reform operates through two primary mechanisms: optimization of internal resource allocation and reduction of external transaction costs; (4) such reform increases firms’ openness and improve overall performance. Our findings offer valuable policy implications for developing countries and transition economies seeking to modernize their supply chains and accelerate economic transformation in an increasingly digitalized global marketplace.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 107490"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146080833","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Traditional clans and modern corporate ESG: Evidence from China 传统宗族与现代企业ESG：来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107520

Qiucen Ma , Zhiyuan Chen , Congming Ding

引用次数: 0

Quantifying potential gains from efficient resource reallocation: A counterfactual analysis of economic growth in 284 Chinese cities 有效资源再配置的潜在收益量化：中国284个城市经济增长的反事实分析

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107501

Sheng Dai , Timo Kuosmanen , Zhiqiang Liao

{"title":"Quantifying potential gains from efficient resource reallocation: A counterfactual analysis of economic growth in 284 Chinese cities","authors":"Sheng Dai , Timo Kuosmanen , Zhiqiang Liao","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107501","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107501","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how efficient resource reallocation across cities affects potential aggregate growth, addressing the limited empirical evidence on output gains from reallocation under realistic constraints. Using data on 284 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2019, we simulate counterfactual scenarios in which existing aggregate resources are reallocated across cities to quantify the costs of resource misallocation. We find that a nationwide efficient allocation can raise aggregate output by more than 30 percent, with further gains arising from adjustments to administrative divisions. While local reallocation also generates output gains, its effects are relatively modest compared with nationwide reallocation. Even when incorporating geographic constraints, urban development strategies, and restrictions on factor mobility, substantial potential gains remain. These results suggest that reducing resource misallocation can unlock significant untapped growth potential. The findings carry important policy implications for improving allocation efficiency in China and offer broader insights into the links between urban structure, regional integration, and long-run economic growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 107501"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191026","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How perceived uncertainty shapes corporate resilience: Evidence from China 感知不确定性如何塑造企业弹性：来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107514

Chengming Huang , Sultan Sikandar Mirza , Chengwei Zhang

引用次数: 0