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Digital M&As, knowledge distance, and labor productivity: Technical and organizational perspectives
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107064
Yiming Zhao , Haitong Li , Zicong Miao , Keyang Li
{"title":"Digital M&As, knowledge distance, and labor productivity: Technical and organizational perspectives","authors":"Yiming Zhao ,&nbsp;Haitong Li ,&nbsp;Zicong Miao ,&nbsp;Keyang Li","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107064","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107064","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of digital mergers and acquisitions (M&amp;As) on labor productivity, focusing on the influence of the knowledge distance between merging parties. Using a sample of firms that underwent M&amp;As between 2007 and 2022, we employ the difference-in-differences method to analyze whether digital M&amp;As lead to higher labor productivity than non-digital M&amp;As. Our results show that a longer knowledge distance between merging parties strengthens the positive relationship between digital M&amp;As and labor productivity. Channel tests reveal that digital M&amp;As improve labor productivity through enhanced technological innovation efficiency when knowledge distance is closer and reduce organizational instability when knowledge distance is longer. Moreover, the effects are more pronounced in larger, younger firms and those with higher labor intensity and better talent pools. These findings provide new insights into the outcomes of digital M&amp;As and highlight the critical role of knowledge distance in shaping labor productivity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107064"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143529247","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fiscal consolidation and asymmetric macroeconomic effects: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African countries
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107052
Ruth Badru , Andrea Calef , Ayobami E. Ilori , Oluwasola E. Omoju
{"title":"Fiscal consolidation and asymmetric macroeconomic effects: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African countries","authors":"Ruth Badru ,&nbsp;Andrea Calef ,&nbsp;Ayobami E. Ilori ,&nbsp;Oluwasola E. Omoju","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107052","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107052","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), addressing the region's rising debt levels and constrained fiscal space. Existing literature has explored fiscal policy's cyclical behaviour and structural constraints; however, gaps remain in understanding the heterogeneous effects of consolidation across debt levels, economic phases, and country classifications. Using the local projection approach on annual data from 1995 to 2022 for a panel of 37 SSA countries, we find that fiscal consolidation has an expansionary effect on output while reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio, with stronger impacts in highly indebted, resource-rich, and institutionally weak economies. Furthermore, expenditure-based adjustments outperform revenue-based measures, particularly during recessions, where effects are deep but short-lived, compared to milder but persistent impacts during expansions. These findings offer new insights into how debt levels and resource endowments shape fiscal outcomes, guiding targeted, context-sensitive strategies to balance growth and debt sustainability in SSA.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107052"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143576798","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Scaling and forecasting in a data-driven agent-based model: Applications to the Italian macroeconomy
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107046
Jacopo Di Domenico , Michele Catalano , Luca Riccetti
{"title":"Scaling and forecasting in a data-driven agent-based model: Applications to the Italian macroeconomy","authors":"Jacopo Di Domenico ,&nbsp;Michele Catalano ,&nbsp;Luca Riccetti","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107046","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107046","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Agent-based models typically replicate stylized facts but lack macroeconomic forecasting capabilities. Recent advancements aim to make these models data-driven, enabling predictive applications in macroeconomics. Using data primarily from Eurostat (1996–2019), we calibrate an increasingly popular data-driven model to the Italian economy and evaluate the forecasting performance of macroeconomic variables for both Austria and Italy across various model scales. Our findings show that scale has no impact on forecast accuracy. To enhance the model we test modifications to agents’ expectations and firms’ production plans, and run long-term simulations to explore model dynamics and identify areas for refinement. The results demonstrate the model’s adaptability to different country specifications, with forecasting performance comparable to basic econometric models. Scale analysis and long-term analysis reveal unexplored heterogeneity and suggest that the model should further leverage the potential of agent-based microfoundations to improve forecasting.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107046"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143529283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fiscal policy and government bond yields: New evidence from the EU 财政政策与政府债券收益率：欧盟的新证据
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107054
Piotr Ciżkowicz, Michał Ledóchowski, Andrzej Rzońca
{"title":"Fiscal policy and government bond yields: New evidence from the EU","authors":"Piotr Ciżkowicz,&nbsp;Michał Ledóchowski,&nbsp;Andrzej Rzońca","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107054","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107054","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the impact of fiscal deficits, sovereign debt, and other fiscal variables on the country-specific component of 10-year government bond yields. While existing studies highlight the influence of fiscal stance on yields, they do not explicitly examine the country-specific component. Using a Global Factor Model, previously applied to stock returns, we isolate the country-specific component from global and regional factors and employ it as the dependent variable in panel models for European Union countries. We find that the component rises with fiscal imbalances, particularly when sovereign debt is high, economic sentiment weak, institutional quality poor, or foreign capital exposure significant. Cuts in current expenditure or increases in indirect taxes lower the component, while changes in government investments or direct taxes have no effect. The findings highlight the non-linearities in yield determination and the importance of fiscal adjustment composition, offering insights to mitigate sovereign borrowing costs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107054"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143621357","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Pension sustainability and government effectiveness in the presence of population aging
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107048
Dooyeon Cho , Kyung-woo Lee
{"title":"Pension sustainability and government effectiveness in the presence of population aging","authors":"Dooyeon Cho ,&nbsp;Kyung-woo Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107048","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107048","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the nonlinear effect of population aging on pension sustainability, contingent on perceived government effectiveness. Analyzing heterogeneous panel data for 15 OECD economies over the period 2002–2019, our findings reveal nonlinear patterns and evolving dynamics over time. We find that the negative impact of population aging on pension sustainability intensifies significantly as government effectiveness diminishes, indicating that the manner in which government policies are implemented and managed significantly influences how effectively pension systems can cope with the challenges posed by population aging. Thus, enhanced government effectiveness can facilitate a smoother transition for pension systems, ensuring their sustainability and supportiveness for retirees despite demographic shifts. Our findings highlight the importance of improving governance practices and policy implementation strategies in the face of population aging.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107048"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143549618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How does digital technology adoption affect corporate employment? Evidence from China
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107045
Yuwen Zhou , Xin Shi
{"title":"How does digital technology adoption affect corporate employment? Evidence from China","authors":"Yuwen Zhou ,&nbsp;Xin Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107045","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107045","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rapid adoption of digital technologies has sparked debates about their employment effects, yet evidence from developing economies remains limited. Previous studies highlight labor market polarization, where automation disproportionately displaces low-skilled workers while benefiting high-skilled ones. Using text analysis of corporate disclosures, we measure digital adoption across Chinese firms (2010–2019) and estimate its employment impacts. A one standard deviation increase in digital adoption raises corporate employment by 5.47%, driven by shifts toward non-routine cognitive roles and higher-educated employees. Digital adoption also increases average wages but leaves labor share unchanged. Three mechanisms explain these effects: total factor productivity (TFP) gains, market share expansion, and capital deepening, with TFP contributing most strongly. These results reveal how digital technologies reshape employment structures, emphasizing the need for firms to balance technological investments with organizational adaptation to mitigate skill mismatches.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107045"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143529248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Customer risk disclosure and supplier innovation strategy: A risk spillover perspective
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107062
Jie Liu , Chuan Zhang , Hanwen Chen
{"title":"Customer risk disclosure and supplier innovation strategy: A risk spillover perspective","authors":"Jie Liu ,&nbsp;Chuan Zhang ,&nbsp;Hanwen Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107062","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107062","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of customers' risk factor disclosure on suppliers' innovation strategy decisions. Previous research has focused on the phenomenon of risk contagion in supply chain risk, and less on the countermeasures behind the phenomenon. Using supplier-customer matching data for Chinese A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2021, we find that upstream suppliers are more likely to engage in breakthrough inventions than incremental suppliers when downstream customers reveal more risk factors. Revealing risk factors for three types of customers, namely high bargaining power, low sales potential, and long distances, is closely related to driving suppliers to make breakthrough innovations. The results of the mechanistic test indicate that spillover of supply chain risk reduces suppliers' willingness to maintain relationships with high-risk customers. Suppliers make innovative decisions to enhance firm value when confronted with increased risk factor disclosures from downstream supply chain customers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107062"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143561872","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimal environmental policy and distortionary fiscal policy interactions: A DSGE perspective
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107037
Mehrab Kiarsi , Nahid Masoudi
{"title":"Optimal environmental policy and distortionary fiscal policy interactions: A DSGE perspective","authors":"Mehrab Kiarsi ,&nbsp;Nahid Masoudi","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107037","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107037","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the interactions between optimal environmental and distortionary fiscal policies within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework using analytical and quantitative methods. We demonstrate that the marginal cost of public funds can exceed, be equal, or fall below one, based on utility specifications and the degree of relative risk aversion. This variation can lead to under-, over-, or optimally taxed environmental damages, with the latter two suggesting the potential for a strong double dividend. Furthermore, we challenge conventional labor tax smoothing theory, showing that a Ramsey-optimal policy allows labor tax volatility in the absence of carbon taxation. Our quantitative analysis reveals that an effective carbon policy reduces fluctuations and significantly mitigates contractions in major economic variables such as GDP, consumption, and welfare in response to environmental shocks. Increased pollution leads to higher emission costs, prompting the Ramsey planner to raise the carbon tax and increase abatement efforts. However, positive government spending or productivity shocks increase the cost of abatement, leading to lower carbon taxes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107037"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143488962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cultural values and interbank markets: An agent-based stock-flow consistent model
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107042
Jessica Reale , Alessio Emanuele Biondo
{"title":"Cultural values and interbank markets: An agent-based stock-flow consistent model","authors":"Jessica Reale ,&nbsp;Alessio Emanuele Biondo","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107042","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107042","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent financial crises have revealed tensions in interbank markets, challenging conventional monetary policies and financial stability. After the sovereign debt crisis, shifts in banks’ funding preferences led to numerous issues in payment systems and European financial integration. Through this study, we analyzed the impact of firms’, households’, and bank managers’ personal values on their financial decisions in credit and interbank markets, highlighting how cultural differences influence financial choices<span><math><mo>−</mo></math></span>a critical factor that remains insufficiently addressed in the existing literature. To address this gap, we incorporated individual values into firms’ and households’ leverage attitudes and banks’ risk-taking behavior, thereby shaping interbank funding maturities and impacting monetary policy outcomes within an agent-based stock-flow consistent framework. The results of this study suggest the following: (i) value distributions featuring risk-averse banks and prudent households promote economic growth; however, they do so at the cost of increasing shock vulnerabilities; (ii) cultural diversity may challenge interest rate steering policies; (iii) imbalanced cultural distributions exhibit divergent speeds of adjustment and require tailored monetary policies to mitigate the disproportionate effects on culturally diverse economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107042"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143478492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An interest rate rule following the natural rate of interest for optimal monetary policy
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107040
Jeong Eui Suh
{"title":"An interest rate rule following the natural rate of interest for optimal monetary policy","authors":"Jeong Eui Suh","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107040","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107040","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The natural rate of interest (NRI) plays a critical role in maintaining stable and effective monetary policy. However, its unobservable nature has led most research to focus on quantitative methods for identifying its shifts, leaving theoretical approaches relatively underexplored. This study addresses this gap by examining how a central bank can implement optimal monetary policy within the New Keynesian framework by tracking NRI fluctuations after real shocks. The analysis demonstrates that when economic agents have strong confidence in policy consistency, the central bank can accurately detect NRI shifts within two periods, regardless of the type of real shocks. This finding implies that adopting an NRI-based interest rate rule may contribute to enhancing policy effectiveness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107040"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143478491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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