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Do green policies enhance short-term economic growth? Assessing EU Recovery and Resilience Plans through the lens of Sustainable Development Goals
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107044
Michele Limosani, Emanuele Millemaci, Paolo Mustica
{"title":"Do green policies enhance short-term economic growth? Assessing EU Recovery and Resilience Plans through the lens of Sustainable Development Goals","authors":"Michele Limosani,&nbsp;Emanuele Millemaci,&nbsp;Paolo Mustica","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107044","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107044","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the Recovery and Resilience Plans (RRPs) of the EU member states, focusing on their alignment with the environmental and socioeconomic dimensions of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In the absence of numerical data, we develop a novel textual indicator that classifies countries’ preferences in RRPs between environmental and socioeconomic SDGs. Using this indicator, we explore the factors associated with these preferences and their implications for expected short-term economic growth. Our findings show that green gap and touristic attractiveness shape countries’ green policy priorities. Furthermore, we find that a stronger focus on environmental SDGs is positively associated with higher expected GDP growth in the short term, suggesting that investments and reforms aimed at environmental sustainability may also drive short-term economic gains. These results provide empirical support for green policies and may help mitigate skepticism from certain political and public sectors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107044"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143508356","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Is implicit cooperation reasonable for the economy? Corporate environmentalism under Kantian behavior
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107029
Hiroshi Kurata , Ngo Van Long
{"title":"Is implicit cooperation reasonable for the economy? Corporate environmentalism under Kantian behavior","authors":"Hiroshi Kurata ,&nbsp;Ngo Van Long","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107029","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107029","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the effects on the market when firms adopt Kantian behavior, inherently fostering implicit cooperation in the context of corporate environmentalism. We focus on oligopolistic firms’ environmental technology investments and compare investment levels under the Kantian equilibrium with those under the Nash equilibrium and socially optimal levels. When firms are concerned about the environmental impact of others, their environmental investment under the Kantian equilibrium exceeds that under the Nash equilibrium. Furthermore, Nash equilibrium investment is consistently below the social optimum, while Kantian equilibrium investment can either match or approach the socially optimal level. The Kantian equilibrium investment may exceed the socially optimal level if a firm have substantial environmental concerns.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"146 ","pages":"Article 107029"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143396263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Penalized quadratic inference functions estimation of fixed effects partially linear varying coefficient spatial error model
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107022
Jianbao Chen , Fen Li
{"title":"Penalized quadratic inference functions estimation of fixed effects partially linear varying coefficient spatial error model","authors":"Jianbao Chen ,&nbsp;Fen Li","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107022","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107022","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study introduces a novel fixed effects partially linear varying coefficient spatial error model featuring a correlation structure within individuals. A penalized quadratic inference functions estimation method for unknowns is proposed by employing B-spline to approximate the varying coefficient functions. Under certain regular conditions, the consistency and asymptotic normality of parametric estimators and the optimal convergence rate of nonparametric estimators are derived. Monte Carlo simulation indicates that the estimates perform strongly in finite sample scenarios. Empirical data analysis demonstrates that the model effectively captures the spatial error correlation of CO<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> emissions and diverse factors’ linear and nonlinear influences on CO<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> emissions. The proposed model and estimation method can be useful for researchers in related disciplines.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"146 ","pages":"Article 107022"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143348855","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of multiple emission reduction policies: Evidence from the coexistence of carbon emission trading system and white certificate
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107027
Lei Zhu , Junqi Liu , Xin Liu , Pengfei Liu
{"title":"The impact of multiple emission reduction policies: Evidence from the coexistence of carbon emission trading system and white certificate","authors":"Lei Zhu ,&nbsp;Junqi Liu ,&nbsp;Xin Liu ,&nbsp;Pengfei Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107027","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107027","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rapid expansion of the carbon emission trading system (ETS) has sparked discussion over the necessity of existing policy instruments in reducing carbon emissions. This paper investigates the impacts of environmental regulations where the ETS and white certificate (WhC) policies may coexist. We develop a theoretical framework for investigating the interactions among industry sectors under various ETS and WhC policies, including strategic options where only one policy is effective. We show that the combination of ETS and WhC results in increased total energy savings but decreased production compared to when only ETS is available. Using the case study of two energy-intensive sectors in China, our numerical simulations reveal that when carbon prices are sufficiently high (above 50 yuan, or $7.18 per ton), both sectors will opt to participate in the ETS, making the WhC market dormant. However, when the marginal emission damage exceeds 400 yuan (or $ 54.45) per ton, the WhC market may lead to a higher social surplus than the ETS-only scenario by encouraging more valuable emission reductions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"146 ","pages":"Article 107027"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143376431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Efficient approximation of post-processing posterior predictive p value with economic applications
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107023
Zhou Wu , Muyao Yu , Tao Zeng , Yonghui Zhang
{"title":"Efficient approximation of post-processing posterior predictive p value with economic applications","authors":"Zhou Wu ,&nbsp;Muyao Yu ,&nbsp;Tao Zeng ,&nbsp;Yonghui Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107023","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107023","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper addresses the computational challenges of calculating post-processing posterior predictive p-values by introducing a novel approximation method using the asymptotic pivotal discrepancy function. Existing approaches usually have a heavy computational burden due to the adoption of resampling in calculation. Our study proposes an efficient alternative by employing a posterior-based Wald-type discrepancy function, which can eliminate the need for resampling and significantly reduce computational demands. Through simulations, we demonstrate that our method achieves comparable results to computationally intensive approaches while offering substantial computational efficiency gains. We further validate our approach using two real-world datasets: CEO compensation and firm performance (analyzed via linear regression) and daily Pound/Dollar exchange rates (modeled using stochastic volatility). Our findings highlight the method’s adaptability and efficacy across diverse applications, advancing the practicality of Bayesian model evaluation and inference.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"146 ","pages":"Article 107023"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143387244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Extreme weather events and efficiency in Italy's food sector: Does institutional quality matter?
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107026
Mariarosaria Agostino , Sandro Rondinella , Sabrina Ruberto
{"title":"Extreme weather events and efficiency in Italy's food sector: Does institutional quality matter?","authors":"Mariarosaria Agostino ,&nbsp;Sandro Rondinella ,&nbsp;Sabrina Ruberto","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107026","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107026","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of extreme weather events on firm-level efficiency, contributing to the ongoing discourse on climate change adaptation within the firm. While existing research presents inconsistent findings regarding the efficiency implications of weather disasters, our analysis offers novel insights into both the short-term and long-term dimensions of this relationship. Using a large sample of Italian food manufacturers, and applying Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA), our results reveal that while extreme weather initially reduces technical efficiency, it can stimulate longer-term improvements, through mechanisms such as investment and performance-driven adjustments. Notably, institutional quality significantly mitigates short-term disruptions and amplifies long-term gains. Therefore, our analysis underscores the broader importance of effective governance in enhancing productive efficiency, reinforcing similar conclusions drawn from studies in other sectors. These findings suggest that policy makers should bolster resilience via both short-term relief and long-term institutional strengthening.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"146 ","pages":"Article 107026"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143428183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Grandchild care and eldercare. A quid pro quo arrangement
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107006
Mathieu Lefebvre , Pierre Pestieau , Jérôme Schoenmaeckers
{"title":"Grandchild care and eldercare. A quid pro quo arrangement","authors":"Mathieu Lefebvre ,&nbsp;Pierre Pestieau ,&nbsp;Jérôme Schoenmaeckers","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The phenomenon of grandparents assuming the role of caretakers for their grandchildren is substantial and on the rise; a trend partially attributed to mothers’ increased participation in the workforce. While altruism is commonly assumed to be the primary driver behind such caregiving, we examine an additional motivation: the expectation among grandparents that they will receive care from their offspring in the event of their own incapacity. This study investigates this hypothesis from theoretical and empirical perspectives. Initially, we construct a theoretical framework, delineating a sub-game perfect Nash equilibrium model wherein the grandparent first commits to caring for the grandchild, followed by anticipation of receiving care from their adult child in disability scenarios. Subsequently, we empirically test the feasibility of this model by analysing data sourced from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. Our results confirm that elderly parents who cared for their grandchildren received more support from their children in the case of a loss of autonomy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"146 ","pages":"Article 107006"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143387245","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How does ESG affect government procurement in countries where ESG systems are established from the top down?
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107024
Wenna Wang , Zhen Yang , Jin Chen , Jingjiang Liu
{"title":"How does ESG affect government procurement in countries where ESG systems are established from the top down?","authors":"Wenna Wang ,&nbsp;Zhen Yang ,&nbsp;Jin Chen ,&nbsp;Jingjiang Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107024","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107024","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Implementing Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) strategies enhances enterprises' competitive advantage, especially in emerging economies with top-down ESG frameworks. While extensive research exists on ESG, its impact on securing government procurement contracts in these economies remains insufficiently explored. Using data from A-share listed firms in China, an emerging economy, from 2010 to 2022, along with text analysis to obtain government procurement contract data, we examine how enterprise ESG influences the acquisition of government procurement contracts. We demonstrate that enterprises with better ESG can receive more government procurement contracts. High product quality and adherence to institutional legitimacy are key mechanisms driving these outcomes. The effect is particularly stronger among firms in regions with lower marketization levels, firms not benefiting from industrial policy support, and non-state-owned enterprises. Our research highlights the critical importance of ESG strategies in strengthening firms’ competitive positions within the government procurement market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"146 ","pages":"Article 107024"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143350644","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Time-varying sources of fluctuations in global inflation
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106970
Won Joong Kim , Juyoung Ko , Won Soon Kwon , Chunyan Piao
{"title":"Time-varying sources of fluctuations in global inflation","authors":"Won Joong Kim ,&nbsp;Juyoung Ko ,&nbsp;Won Soon Kwon ,&nbsp;Chunyan Piao","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106970","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106970","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Different crises, such as the GFC, COVID-19 pandemic, and RU-UA war, lead to the common economic consequences: fluctuations in global inflation. In a globalized world, global inflation matters because it also affects the national economy. Although the literature provides determinants of inflation at national and regional levels, no studies have measured global inflation and analyzed its sources of fluctuations during the GFC, COVID-19, and RU-UA war periods. To fill this void, we measure monthly global inflation and estimate its dynamics using a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility. The results from global data show that global inflation during crisis periods is greatly affected by the monetary and the oil price shocks. Finally, the application to the EMU member countries implies that high EMU inflation rates in recent years were dominantly caused by excessive expansionary monetary policy in the EMU system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"143 ","pages":"Article 106970"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143138790","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impact of the Yangtze River economic belt on high-quality economic development in China: Evidence from a spatial difference-in-differences model
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106962
Yu He , Xiaoqi Zhang , Huan Zheng
{"title":"Impact of the Yangtze River economic belt on high-quality economic development in China: Evidence from a spatial difference-in-differences model","authors":"Yu He ,&nbsp;Xiaoqi Zhang ,&nbsp;Huan Zheng","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106962","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106962","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In September 2016, the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) was officially declared a major national strategic development region in China. However, previous studies have mainly focused on the impact of YREB implementation on environmental protection and economic growth, with limited research on sustainable economic development. Thus, based on city-level panel data during 2013–2020, this study examines the impact of YREB implementation on high-quality economic development (HQED) by using a spatial difference-in-differences model. Based on the findings, YREB implementation enhances the HQED of local regions, but not that of neighboring regions. Additionally, a mechanism analysis revealed that the policy effect is greater when the industrial structure is more advanced and human capital is richer. Meanwhile, YREB implementation only has a significant influence on HQED over the long term and in the eastern region. Overall, our study clarifies the role of YREB implementation in fostering sustainable economic development in the country.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"143 ","pages":"Article 106962"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143138852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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