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Bank fintech and lending distance: The role of information asymmetry and risk management channels 银行金融科技与借贷距离：信息不对称与风险管理渠道的作用
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107154
Jue Feng , Wenniu Jiao , Yingdong Wang
{"title":"Bank fintech and lending distance: The role of information asymmetry and risk management channels","authors":"Jue Feng ,&nbsp;Wenniu Jiao ,&nbsp;Yingdong Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107154","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107154","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the impact of bank fintech on lending distance by using loan data from Chinese listed firms and commercial banks between 2013 and 2022, along with commercial bank fintech patent data. The findings indicate that bank fintech effectively increases the lending distance between banks and enterprises, primarily by reducing information asymmetry and enhancing risk management capacity. This is particularly evident for enterprises located in regions with scarce financial resources, enterprises in their growth or maturity stages, large-scale enterprises, and large state-owned commercial banks. Additionally, the increase in lending distance driven by bank fintech is associated with an extension in firms’ debt maturity, without a corresponding increase in the probability of default. These findings not only provide empirical evidence for implementing and promoting fintech development plans, but also offer valuable insights into the synchronized high-quality development of the financial industry and the real economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107154"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144168065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Volatility shocks in markets and policies: What matters for a small open economy like Canada? 市场和政策的波动冲击：对加拿大这样的小型开放经济体来说，什么重要？
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107124
Jamie Cross, Timothy Kam, Aubrey Poon
{"title":"Volatility shocks in markets and policies: What matters for a small open economy like Canada?","authors":"Jamie Cross,&nbsp;Timothy Kam,&nbsp;Aubrey Poon","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107124","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107124","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We structurally estimate how much stochastic-volatility, relative to first-moment shocks, account for policy, demand or supply fluctuations in Canada. The historical Canadian business cycle is largely due to domestic technology and policy shocks. Time-varying volatilities dominate during times of turmoil and policy-environment changes. Our model-based shock-volatility accounting attributes the early 1980s crisis to international, cost-push, and monetary-policy shock volatilities; the adoption of inflation targeting in the early 1990s to monetary-policy uncertainty; the recessions around the early 1980s and 1990s to investment volatility; and income-tax and capital-gains tax reforms involve relatively large tax-policy uncertainty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107124"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144138223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Goal-oriented preferences for green bonds: A model of sustainable investment strategies 绿色债券的目标导向偏好：可持续投资策略模型
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107128
An Chen , Yusha Chen , Thai Nguyen , Gazi Salah Uddin
{"title":"Goal-oriented preferences for green bonds: A model of sustainable investment strategies","authors":"An Chen ,&nbsp;Yusha Chen ,&nbsp;Thai Nguyen ,&nbsp;Gazi Salah Uddin","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107128","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107128","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Addressing climate change requires a transition to low-carbon, climate-resilient investments, with green bonds gaining traction among institutional investors focused on sustainability objectives. This study models their decision-making by integrating green investment targets into utility functions, combining a constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) component with a goal-oriented utility modification. Employing a Lagrangian approach, we derive the optimal terminal wealth and portfolio composition, including green bond allocation. Contrary to common intuition, more ambitious green investment targets do not always yield greater green bond allocations. The outcome significantly hinges on investors’ risk aversion. This intricate interaction between risk aversion and goal-oriented utility reveals the complexity of green investment decisions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 107128"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144107975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sustainability of pension systems in the presence of population aging and elderly labor supply 存在人口老龄化和老年劳动力供给的养老金制度的可持续性
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107127
Tamara Fioroni
{"title":"Sustainability of pension systems in the presence of population aging and elderly labor supply","authors":"Tamara Fioroni","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107127","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107127","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 107127"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144107976","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Digital transformation and corporate diversification: Evidence from China's A-share listed companies 数字化转型与企业多元化：来自中国a股上市公司的证据
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107142
Rongji Wang , Wei Wan , Dongbei Bai , Jue Wang
{"title":"Digital transformation and corporate diversification: Evidence from China's A-share listed companies","authors":"Rongji Wang ,&nbsp;Wei Wan ,&nbsp;Dongbei Bai ,&nbsp;Jue Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107142","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107142","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Digital transformation, defined as the application of digital technologies, is profoundly reshaping business operations. However, its impact on corporate diversification (i.e., a firm's expansion into new industries or product markets) remains underexplored. In this study, we develop a theoretical model and empirically test it using data from China's A-share listed companies. Our findings indicate that digital transformation significantly promotes corporate diversification by reducing transaction costs, alleviating financing constraints, and fostering digital technological innovation. This effect is especially pronounced in nonstate-owned enterprises, labor-intensive industries, competitive sectors, and firms located in regions with advanced digital infrastructure and higher levels of economic development. Additionally, digital transformation enhances firms' market power, improves operational performance, and increases production efficiency, further reinforcing its strategic value. These findings contribute to the literature by revealing the mechanisms through which digitalization influences corporate strategy and offer policy implications for local governments aiming to strengthen digital infrastructure and support business digitalization efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 107142"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144071332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cross-country risk spillovers: A FHM factor copula approach 跨国风险溢出：FHM因素联结方法
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107123
Jing Chang, Xiaozhen Hao, Zhenlong Chen
{"title":"Cross-country risk spillovers: A FHM factor copula approach","authors":"Jing Chang,&nbsp;Xiaozhen Hao,&nbsp;Zhenlong Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107123","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107123","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To capture non-smooth changes in dynamic dependence, we incorporate a factorial hidden Markov regime-switching model within the factor Copula framework. This approach allows us to construct a factorial hidden Markov (FHM) factor Copula model that captures external shocks of varying magnitude, direction and short or long-term effect from significant events to multi-dimensional dependence. Additionally, given the favorable properties of RVaR and the cumulative effects of risk spillover, we propose the concept of multi-CoRVaR and present explicit calculation formulas derived from the constructed models. Finally, empirical analysis is conducted to study the cross-country risk spillovers in order to assess the risk faced by one country when other countries encounter extreme situations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 107123"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144068524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Population aging and innovation slowdown: Dual mechanisms of firm cost structure and consumption preference 人口老龄化与创新放缓：企业成本结构与消费偏好的双重机制
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107120
Shiyi Chen , Yunpeng Li , Qinzhu Sun
{"title":"Population aging and innovation slowdown: Dual mechanisms of firm cost structure and consumption preference","authors":"Shiyi Chen ,&nbsp;Yunpeng Li ,&nbsp;Qinzhu Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107120","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107120","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of population aging on innovation activities in China, broadening the discussion of aging’s socioeconomic outcomes. Using an integrated dataset spanning 2005–2021, we find that aging significantly decreases the number of patent applications per capita. The negative impact of aging is derived from supply- and demand-side mechanisms. The supply-side mechanism suggests that rising labor costs reduce firms’ R&amp;D investment. Meanwhile, the demand-side mechanism suggests a decline in demand for novel products and a growing preference among the older adults for less-innovative service goods. Further analysis suggests that openness to trade and the adoption of artificial intelligence can mitigate the negative impact of aging. Our findings provide policy direction for sustaining economic growth within the context of an aging society.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 107120"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143941109","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Common and country-specific uncertainty shocks in europe: Why their nature matters for policy 欧洲的共同和特定国家的不确定性冲击：为什么它们的性质对政策至关重要
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107110
Jaromír Baxa , Tomáš Šestořád
{"title":"Common and country-specific uncertainty shocks in europe: Why their nature matters for policy","authors":"Jaromír Baxa ,&nbsp;Tomáš Šestořád","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107110","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107110","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We decompose the indices of economic policy uncertainty into common and country-specific components and show that only synchronized uncertainty shocks significantly affect Europe’s macroeconomy, while purely national shocks have limited impact. In particular, adverse common uncertainty shocks lead to economic downturns even if central banks aim to offset them by lowering interest rates, and this monetary easing has negligible effects on inflation — implying that common uncertainty acts more like a demand shock than a supply shock. As a result, supporting real activity does not compromise price stability. However, since central banks alone cannot fully offset these synchronized shocks, there is scope for closer policy coordination among European governments and institutions to mitigate the impact of common uncertainty. Our findings emerge from a Bayesian panel VAR analysis identified with sign and zero restrictions and are robust to different samples and identification strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 107110"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143946685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The international spillovers of US monetary policy uncertainty: Is it a dilemma or trilemma for monetary policy? 美国货币政策不确定性的国际溢出效应：是货币政策的两难选择还是三难选择？
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107122
Jingru Luo , Jingting Liu , Joseph D. Alba , Peiming Wang
{"title":"The international spillovers of US monetary policy uncertainty: Is it a dilemma or trilemma for monetary policy?","authors":"Jingru Luo ,&nbsp;Jingting Liu ,&nbsp;Joseph D. Alba ,&nbsp;Peiming Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107122","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107122","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the global spillover effects of US monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) and evaluates whether countries face the traditional ‘trilemma’ or Rey's ‘dilemma’ in preserving monetary independence. While existing research has extensively analyzed the worldwide transmission of US monetary policy shocks, the distinct role of MPU in driving global financial cycles remains underexplored. Using a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model covering 36 economies accounting for 90 % of global GDP, this study identifies that US MPU shocks significantly reduce economic activity, share prices, and interest rates across the globe. Counterfactual analyses reveal that these direct impacts of MPU shocks are more substantial than their indirect effects through interest rates or global financial cycles. Economies with stringent capital controls and robust macroprudential policies exhibit greater insulation from MPU shocks, whereas exchange rate flexibility alone is insufficient to provide protection. These findings strengthen Rey's ‘dilemma’ hypothesis over the ‘trilemma,’ underscoring the necessity of comprehensive policy frameworks to mitigate external uncertainties and enhance international economic resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 107122"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143940979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Imported inputs reduce carbon intensity: Evidence from Indian manufacturing firms 进口投入降低碳强度：来自印度制造企业的证据
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107134
Rumi Azim, Aparna Sawhney
{"title":"Imported inputs reduce carbon intensity: Evidence from Indian manufacturing firms","authors":"Rumi Azim,&nbsp;Aparna Sawhney","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107134","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107134","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the role of imported inputs in reducing carbon emission-intensity of Indian manufacturing firms during 1993-94 through 2018-19, and discern a differential impact between single-product versus diversified multi-product firms. Beginning with fixed effects panel regression analysis, followed by regression analysis of a propensity-score matched sample to control for endogeneity, we find robust evidence that imported intermediate inputs and imported capital goods significantly reduced firms’ emission intensity. Consistent with the literature, we find that more productive firms and exporting firms have lower emission-intensity. For multi-product firms, environmental benefit of imported capital goods is particularly pronounced compared to single-product firms. Moreover, in-house R&amp;D exhibited significant complementarity with imported capital goods in reducing emission intensity for less-productive multi-product firms. We conclude that imported inputs together with own R&amp;D will enhance firm environmental performance and help India achieve its <em>Nationally Determined Contribution</em> commitment in climate mitigation under the Paris Agreement.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 107134"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143941110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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