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Demographic transitions and global sourcing: Firm-level evidence from China 人口转型与全球采购：来自中国的企业层面证据
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107130
Jie Li, Yaohui Zhao, Yangming Bao
{"title":"Demographic transitions and global sourcing: Firm-level evidence from China","authors":"Jie Li,&nbsp;Yaohui Zhao,&nbsp;Yangming Bao","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107130","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107130","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The study investigates how local population aging impacts firms’ global sourcing strategies. Using data on Chinese listed manufacturing firms from 2002 to 2016, we find that firms significantly increase their import activities—particularly for intermediate inputs—when local population ages. Further analyses indicate that labor market challenges and intensified competition are key mechanisms driving this response. Moreover, global sourcing emerges as an effective adaptation strategy, evidenced by improved financial performance. These findings offer new insights into how firms mitigate labor market challenges posed by aging demographics by leveraging global sourcing.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 107130"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143940978","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Economic distress, democratic quality, and satisfaction with democracy in Europe during COVID-19: A multilevel approach 2019冠状病毒病期间欧洲的经济困境、民主质量和对民主的满意度：一个多层次的方法
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107137
Tarkan Cavusoglu , Barbara Pistoresi , Erica Poma
{"title":"Economic distress, democratic quality, and satisfaction with democracy in Europe during COVID-19: A multilevel approach","authors":"Tarkan Cavusoglu ,&nbsp;Barbara Pistoresi ,&nbsp;Erica Poma","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107137","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107137","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how economic distress and democratic quality influenced individuals’ satisfaction with democracy across 27 European countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using multilevel mixed-effects models, we find that economic distress significantly reduced satisfaction with democracy, particularly during the pandemic period. This relationship is shaped not only by individual-level conditions but also by the severity of the pandemic at the national level, which amplifies dissatisfaction and intensifies the negative impact of economic distress. While redistributive policies, such as pandemic-related financial assistance, enhance satisfaction, they do not fully offset the adverse effects of distress. In contrast, targeted unemployment spending helps alleviate the negative impact of economic hardship, while income inequality exacerbates it. Finally, higher democratic quality and greater trust in government buffer the negative consequences of pandemic severity. These findings underscore the critical role of well-designed redistributive policies and resilient democratic institutions in maintaining public support for democracy during systemic crises.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 107137"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144068525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Is AI a key driving force for Chinese total factor productivity growth? Mechanistic analysis of employment, supply chain, and information asymmetry 人工智能是中国全要素生产率增长的关键驱动力吗？就业、供应链与信息不对称的机制分析
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107126
Ruifeng Xu , Frank M. Song
{"title":"Is AI a key driving force for Chinese total factor productivity growth? Mechanistic analysis of employment, supply chain, and information asymmetry","authors":"Ruifeng Xu ,&nbsp;Frank M. Song","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107126","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107126","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using artificial intelligence (AI) patent data and financial records from Chinese-listed firms, we find that AI-driven innovations enhance total factor productivity (TFP) at a rate 40 times greater than that of ordinary patents. Our findings suggest that AI serves as a crucial TFP driver in China and may help mitigate the risks associated with the country's aging population and the potential middle-income trap. This works because AI enhances workforce education, optimizes supply chains, and reduces information asymmetry and agency costs. A heterogeneity analysis reveals that computer system AI patents hold the highest value, whereas AI innovation has the most significant impact on the TFP of cultural enterprises. These insights offer valuable strategic guidance for optimizing AI development in the postpandemic era.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 107126"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144071333","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does war increase ethnic discrimination in the labor market? Evidence from a field experiment 战争是否加剧了劳动力市场上的种族歧视？现场实验的证据
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-04-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107111
Kanat Abdulla , Evangelos Mourelatos
{"title":"Does war increase ethnic discrimination in the labor market? Evidence from a field experiment","authors":"Kanat Abdulla ,&nbsp;Evangelos Mourelatos","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107111","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107111","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates employer bias against Russian migrants in Kazakhstan’s labor market during the Russia–Ukraine War. Existing literature highlights ethnic discrimination in hiring but lacks insights into these patterns in the context of a geopolitical conflict. Using data from 1,630 fictitious job applications sent to real job postings, we compare responses to local Kazakhs, local Russians, Kyrgyz migrants, and Russian migrants. Our analysis reveals that Russian migrants are significantly less likely to receive interview invitations. This bias intensifies in regions farther from Russia and in high-skilled job sectors. The findings indicate that geopolitical tensions amplify labor market inequalities and highlight the need for targeted anti-discrimination policies to promote equity in hiring practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 107111"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143891013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Monetary policy analysis using natural language processing: Evaluating the People's Bank of China's minutes and report summary with the Taylor Rule 基于自然语言处理的货币政策分析：用泰勒规则评价中国人民银行会议纪要和报告摘要
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-04-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107121
Shiwei Su , Ahmad Hassan Ahmad , Justine Wood , Songbo Jia
{"title":"Monetary policy analysis using natural language processing: Evaluating the People's Bank of China's minutes and report summary with the Taylor Rule","authors":"Shiwei Su ,&nbsp;Ahmad Hassan Ahmad ,&nbsp;Justine Wood ,&nbsp;Songbo Jia","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107121","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107121","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the predictive power of the PBOC's concise communication tools—meeting minutes and monetary policy report summaries—in forecasting monetary policy decisions. Existing literature primarily focuses on comprehensive monetary policy reports, often overlooking the effectiveness of brief communication forms like meeting minutes. Using Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques and an ordered probit model within the Taylor Rule framework, we quantify economic, and inflation signals from PBOC texts between 2002Q3 and 2023Q4. Our findings reveal that economic signals from meeting minutes significantly influence policy rate changes, while inflation signals remain relatively weaker. Further comparative analysis shows that although monetary policy summaries provide balanced signals due to their comprehensive nature, meeting minutes offer stronger short-term predictive power owing to their concise format and timeliness. These results underscore the importance of balanced economic and inflation communication, enhancing our understanding of how central bank textual signals shape policy predictability and market expectations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 107121"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143923389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Government expenditure composition and long-run economic growth in the aging democracy 老龄化民主下的政府支出构成与长期经济增长
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-04-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107119
Toshiki Tamai, Yaqi Wang
{"title":"Government expenditure composition and long-run economic growth in the aging democracy","authors":"Toshiki Tamai,&nbsp;Yaqi Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107119","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107119","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how population aging affects government expenditure composition, economic growth, and social welfare in democratic societies, using an overlapping generations model. In aging societies, where public investment and welfare expenditures are financed through income taxes, intergenerational conflicts persist. Retired generations (i.e., elderly citizens) favor higher income tax rates to increase current welfare expenditures, often at the expense of public investment. In contrast, working generations (i.e., young citizens) prefer greater public investment but oppose higher income taxes. As the population ages, the political power of elderly citizens strengthens, leading to higher taxes and a reallocation of budgets from public investment toward current welfare. Consequently, population aging under democracy tends to undermine both economic growth and social welfare. However, when aging results from increased longevity, it can enhance capital accumulation, as individuals save more for retirement. Moreover, longer life expectancy brings survival benefits to both young and old generations, enabling them to enjoy retirement and reap the returns from public investment. Thus, population aging also has direct positive effects on growth and welfare. Numerical analysis reveals an inverted U-shaped relationship between population aging, economic growth, and social welfare if the elasticity of elderly citizens’ political power with respect to population aging is sufficiently high.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 107119"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143929285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Great Indian Savings Puzzle 大印度储蓄之谜
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-04-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107096
Chetan Ghate , Pawan Gopalakrishnan , Anuradha Saha
{"title":"The Great Indian Savings Puzzle","authors":"Chetan Ghate ,&nbsp;Pawan Gopalakrishnan ,&nbsp;Anuradha Saha","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107096","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107096","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>India’s savings rate rose from 13% of GDP in 1970 to 38% of GDP in 2008 before steadily declining to 30% of GDP by 2019. India’s savings trajectory follows a hump-shaped pattern, peaking during the Great Recession (2007–2009). We build a monetary-growth model that highlights the role of declining inflation post-2009 in explaining the hump shape in the savings rate. Falling inflation boosts future wealth, inducing households to increase consumption while lowering future savings. Consumption smoothing and risk aversion lead to higher consumption and lower savings in the initial periods as well. Consequently, household savings are low but rising in the 1990s, peaking alongside inflation in 2008, and declining thereafter. The fit improves when we allow for two types of agents: Ricardian and Rule of Thumb. Our model predicts a dynamic association between inflation and household savings that mimics the hump-shaped savings pattern observed in India and some other economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 107096"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143935301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Non-cognitive skills and earnings of informal workers in China 中国非正式工人的非认知技能与收入
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-04-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107106
Xi Chen, Xinyi Wu
{"title":"Non-cognitive skills and earnings of informal workers in China","authors":"Xi Chen,&nbsp;Xinyi Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107106","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107106","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the relationship between non-cognitive skills and wage earnings among informal workers. While existing research underscores the significance of non-cognitive skills in shaping labor market outcomes, their role within the informal sector remains under-explored. Utilizing data from the China Family Panel Studies, we analyze how non-cognitive skills, as measured by the Big Five personality traits, locus of control, and challenge-affiliation preference, predict wages in China’s informal labor market. Our findings reveal that openness, emotional stability, an internal locus of control, and a preference for challenge are positively associated with earnings, with effects varying across the earnings distribution and occupational categories. Further analysis identifies human capital accumulation, social capital formation, and occupational choice as key mechanisms underlying these relationships. These findings enhance our understanding of informal labor markets and offer policy insights for improving earnings through targeted skill development initiatives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 107106"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143891012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does redistribution hurt growth? An empirical assessment of the redistribution–growth relationship in the European Union 再分配会损害经济增长吗？欧盟再分配与增长关系的实证评估
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-04-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107104
Michael Christl , Silvia De Poli , Monika Köppl-Turyna
{"title":"Does redistribution hurt growth? An empirical assessment of the redistribution–growth relationship in the European Union","authors":"Michael Christl ,&nbsp;Silvia De Poli ,&nbsp;Monika Köppl-Turyna","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107104","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107104","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact of inequality and redistribution on economic growth in the EU. While past research finds inequality harms long-term growth, the effects of redistribution remain debated. Using panel data from 25 EU countries (2007–2019), we introduce the Net Benefit Share as a measure for targeted redistribution. Our findings show that market inequality boosts short-term growth, but redistribution targeted to low-income households further enhances it mainly via the consumption channel. In contrast, redistribution to high-income earners and pensioners reduces growth. These results highlight the importance of well-targeted redistributive policies for economic performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 107104"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143887606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A dynamic model of real-financial markets interaction 真实金融市场互动的动态模型
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-04-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107103
Serena Sordi , Ahmad Naimzada , Marwil J. Davila-Fernandez
{"title":"A dynamic model of real-financial markets interaction","authors":"Serena Sordi ,&nbsp;Ahmad Naimzada ,&nbsp;Marwil J. Davila-Fernandez","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107103","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107103","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The global recession brought on by the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic has reignited interest in understanding the relationship between business cycles and financial conditions. This paper proposes a macrodynamic model that captures the interaction between the stock market (SM) and the economy’s real sector (RS), which is fueled by two distinct sources of persistent fluctuations. The SM incorporates two types of speculators, namely, chartists and fundamentalists, whereas the RS is a simplified version of Goodwin’s growth cycle model that distinguishes between labor and capital incomes. This framework connects the chartist–fundamentalist literature to Goodwin’s model for the first time. The interaction is based on two key assumptions: (<em>i</em>) investment decisions are influenced by profits and stock prices, and (<em>ii</em>) speculators perceive the fundamental value of the stock as proportional to national output. This interaction of real and financial dynamics causes fluctuations due to the sensitivity of investment to stock prices and the proportionality between stock fundamentals and output.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 107103"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143891011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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