Economic Modelling最新文献_第3页

Improving macroeconomic model credibility: Reducing reliance on frictions through observed inflation expectations 提高宏观经济模型的可信度：通过观察到的通胀预期减少对摩擦的依赖

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107300

Jakub Moučka, Daniel Němec

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引用次数: 0

Forecasting energy commodity returns: Can weak factors and nonlinearity help? 预测能源商品收益：弱因子和非线性是否有帮助？

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107295

Yong Ma , Shuaibing Li , Xiaojun Liu

引用次数: 0

How does bank digitalization benefit firm borrowing? Evidence from China 银行数字化如何使企业借款受益？来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107313

Xinhong Wu , Xinmei Wu

引用次数: 0

Geopolitical risk, macroeconomic factors and different assets during the war periods: Implications for herding and portfolio diversification 地缘政治风险、宏观经济因素和战争时期的不同资产：对羊群和投资组合多样化的影响

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107312

Nasir Khan , Sami Mejri , Arturo Leccadito , Sang Hoon Kang

{"title":"Geopolitical risk, macroeconomic factors and different assets during the war periods: Implications for herding and portfolio diversification","authors":"Nasir Khan , Sami Mejri , Arturo Leccadito , Sang Hoon Kang","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107312","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107312","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines dynamic connectedness and portfolio optimization among Gold, Bitcoin, Silver, Green bond, the S&P500 index, and expected geopolitical risk (GPR) during the Russia–Ukraine and Palestine–Israel conflicts. It employs a comprehensive array of methodologies, including the wavelet quantile vector autoregression method, revealing weak static and time-varying shock spillovers, and the wavelet cross quantilogram, elucidating heterogeneous and changing intrinsic dynamics across time frequency and quantiles. The frequency causality in quantiles reveals strong bidirectional causality across all quantiles and timescales between GPR and the five assets. These findings suggest that GPR and the five assets are marginally integrated with variable shock transmission across scales and frequency ranges. The extreme causality shock transmission indicates that the five assets may provide hedging and diversification opportunities at specific times. The findings of portfolio optimization reveal that tailored asset combinations and horizon-specific weight adjustments are essential to mitigate potential GPR-related downside risks during market stress. In the short and medium term (up to 32 days), optimal portfolio construction favours substantial allocations to Green Bonds to hedge risks from positions in Bitcoin and Silver. Over longer investment horizons (beyond 32 days) higher weights to Gold and the S&P 500 become more effective for mitigating downside risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 107312"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145160344","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Climate change, state capacity and uneven growth: A disaggregated analysis of India 气候变化、国家能力和不平衡增长：对印度的分类分析

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107311

Naveen Kumar, Dibyendu Maiti

{"title":"Climate change, state capacity and uneven growth: A disaggregated analysis of India","authors":"Naveen Kumar, Dibyendu Maiti","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107311","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107311","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how rising temperatures affect India’s long-term economic growth, both at aggregate and disaggregated levels across regions, sectors, and seasons. Existing research has predominantly relied on pooled estimation with panel data that inadequately address heterogeneity, temperature dynamics, and underlying transmission mechanisms, particularly at disaggregated levels. A cross-sectionally augmented auto-regressive distributed lag model (CS-ARDL) is estimated using panel data that capture state-specific weather-output relationships, long-term impacts, temperature persistence, intra-annual variability, unobserved heterogeneity, and cross-regional spillovers. The findings reveal that, on average, a 1 °C annual temperature variation reduces economic growth by 3.89%, nearly twice the previous estimate. Second, results suggest that annual temperature variation diminishes growth by damaging productivity through reduced ecosystem services, labour, and capital efficiency. Third, state capacity plays a moderating role in shaping regional vulnerability to temperature shocks. Fourth, impacts are heterogeneous, varying by season (greater in winter), region (higher in southern and hotter regions), and across sectors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 107311"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145160345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Does digital finance spatial correlation drive income convergence? 数字金融空间关联驱动收入趋同吗？

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107308

Xia Fang , Yun Zhang , Shuqing Lv , Longxin Tan

{"title":"Does digital finance spatial correlation drive income convergence?","authors":"Xia Fang , Yun Zhang , Shuqing Lv , Longxin Tan","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107308","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107308","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Digital finance significantly boosts household incomes and reduces regional disparities. Although digital finance can narrow income inequality, the spatial impact of digital finance on income convergence remains inadequately examined. This study evaluates whether and how the spatial correlation with central digital finance regions promotes income convergence, by employing a modified gravity model and data from Zhejiang Province in China. The empirical evidence shows that digital finance spatial correlation can contribute to income growth. Notably, low-income regions derive a stronger growth impetus by enhancing spatial correlation with central digital finance regions, narrowing the income inequality with high-income regions. Specifically, capital flow, technological innovation, and business creation are three effective mechanisms. Heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that the convergence effect is particularly significant for regions with mountains and without high-speed rail (HSR) stations, underscoring the spatial penetration capabilities of digital finance. Governments should encourage more cross-regional digital finance cooperation to achieve balanced regional development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 107308"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145120783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The effect of uncertainty on output: Instruments, identification, and the role of investment 不确定性对产出的影响：工具、识别和投资的作用

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107294

Michael Ryan, Mark J. Holmes

引用次数: 0

Gender gap in working span, employment, and labor productivity 工作时间、就业和劳动生产率的性别差异

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107302

Qing Peng , Haisheng Yang , Jie Li

引用次数: 0

How does aging population affect China's monetary policy effectiveness: Empirical evidence and theoretical analysis 人口老龄化如何影响中国货币政策有效性：实证与理论分析

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107309

Xiaoliang Chen , Junjie Guo , Junming Zhang

引用次数: 0

Detecting skimping in bank production process with non-performing loans: A distance minimization approach 利用不良贷款检测银行生产过程中的撇脂行为：一种距离最小化方法

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107305

Hirofumi Fukuyama , Roman Matousek , Nickolaos G. Tzeremes

{"title":"Detecting skimping in bank production process with non-performing loans: A distance minimization approach","authors":"Hirofumi Fukuyama , Roman Matousek , Nickolaos G. Tzeremes","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107305","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107305","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a minimum-distance efficiency model that incorporates material-balance constraints and treats non-performing loans (NPLs) as an explicit, undesirable output. Unlike radial distance functions, our non-radial formulation lets each input and output adjust independently. This flexibility uncovers latent inefficiencies most notably skimping. Skimping arises when managers cut loan-monitoring costs today at the expense of future asset quality. Applied to U.S. commercial banks over 2003–2017, the model shows that institutions reporting high short-run cost efficiency often experience a subsequent rise in NPLs, suggesting potential skimping behavior. For every bank, the estimator delivers a tailored vector of adjustments for assets, staff, loans, securities, and NPLs that would move it to the best-practice frontier, thus supplying managers with concrete, risk-aware performance targets. By linking operating choices, credit-risk outcomes, and overall efficiency within a single framework, the study offers regulators and practitioners a more informative tool for diagnosing performance shortfalls and designing corrective strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107305"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145060348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0