Economic Modelling最新文献_第3页

How cultural trade policy shapes export Performance? A theoretical and empirical study of China's cultural product exports 文化贸易政策如何影响出口绩效？中国文化产品出口的理论与实证研究

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107498

Zhangwei Ding, Yangzi Li , Yuanhong Wang, Xuan Huang

{"title":"How cultural trade policy shapes export Performance? A theoretical and empirical study of China's cultural product exports","authors":"Zhangwei Ding, Yangzi Li , Yuanhong Wang, Xuan Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107498","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107498","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines whether cultural trade policy can expand cultural exports in the presence of “cultural discount,” which generates implicit trade frictions across markets. While existing studies document that cultural distance constrains cultural trade, systematic quantitative evidence on the effectiveness of cultural trade policy remains limited. We develop a heterogeneous-firm model with endogenous quality choice and implicit trade costs, and test its predictions using China's 2014 cultural trade policy and cultural export data from 2009 to 2019. Employing a difference-in-differences framework in which cultural distance proxies for policy exposure, we find that the policy significantly increases cultural export values. Mechanism analysis shows that this effect operates primarily through quality upgrading rather than marginal cost reductions. The policy also lowers bilateral tariffs and cultural trade costs, while having limited effects on external cultural communication. Further analysis indicates that export growth is driven mainly by expansion along the intensive margin, suggesting that future policy design should place greater emphasis on promoting extensive-margin growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 107498"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The collateral damage of U.S. sanctions: Evidence from Chinese peer firms during the trade war 美国制裁的附带损害：来自贸易战期间中国同行公司的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107512

Xihao Wu, Di Zhang, Yani Sun

引用次数: 0

Can the cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot area policy improve China's FDI quality? 跨境电子商务综合试验区政策能否提升中国FDI质量？

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107503

Yunshi Cao , Yanzhen Wang , Chang Hong , Shengbao Ji

{"title":"Can the cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot area policy improve China's FDI quality?","authors":"Yunshi Cao , Yanzhen Wang , Chang Hong , Shengbao Ji","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107503","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107503","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Through policy innovation, digital empowerment, and business environment optimization, the cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot area (CECPA) policy plays a crucial role in improving foreign direct investment (FDI) quality. However, empirical evidence on its effects and underlying mechanisms remains limited. Using 2009–2021 panel data for 257 Chinese cities, this study applies a multiperiod difference-in-differences model to assess the CECPA policy's impact on FDI quality. The results show that the policy significantly enhances FDI quality, and the findings remain robust across tests. Mechanism analysis indicates that CECPA improves FDI quality by strengthening digital industry agglomeration, technological innovation, and value-added tax reduction. Heterogeneity tests reveal stronger effects in non-core and non-resource-based cities, as well as in cities with higher human capital and more advanced digital infrastructure. Additional analysis shows that the CECPA policy contributes to economic growth by improving FDI quality. Overall, this study offers practical insights for regions seeking to leverage the CECPA policy to enhance FDI quality and stimulate economic development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 107503"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Quantifying systemic risk via high-dimensional CoVaR measures 通过高维CoVaR度量量化系统风险

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107494

Yufei Cao

{"title":"Quantifying systemic risk via high-dimensional CoVaR measures","authors":"Yufei Cao","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107494","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107494","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I quantify high-dimensional conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR) measures, including multi-CoVaR (MCoVaR) and vulnerability-CoVaR (VCoVaR), to assess systemic risk arising from distress across multiple financial institutions. MCoVaR captures system-wide risk under the assumption that all institutions are distressed, whereas VCoVaR reflects scenarios in which at least one institution breaches its value-at-risk threshold. Using a two-step maximum log-likelihood approach based on multivariate dynamic conditional correlation (DCC)-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, I first estimate univariate GARCH parameters via quasi-likelihood methods and then estimate multivariate DCC parameters. Analyzing 246 U.S. financial institutions (73 banks, 52 brokers, 34 real estate firms, and 87 insurers) at both institutional and sectoral levels, I identify heterogeneous contributions to systemic risk across groups. Statistical tests confirm that each group plays a significant role in systemic vulnerability, although their relative importance depends on the specific systemic risk measure employed. Overall, the results provide new insights into the drivers of systemic risk associated with multivariate institutional distress.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 107494"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146080838","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Green finance and bird diversity: Evidence from China 绿色金融与鸟类多样性：来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107478

Xiaohong Huang , Yizhen Wang , Qianru Huang

引用次数: 0

The impact of early pension withdrawals on household finances and inflation 提前提取养老金对家庭财政和通货膨胀的影响

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107475

Jaanika Meriküll

{"title":"The impact of early pension withdrawals on household finances and inflation","authors":"Jaanika Meriküll","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107475","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107475","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper exploits Estonia's 2021 pension reform to examine the impact of a large-scale liquidity shock on household finances and inflation. The reform made the second-pillar pension contributions voluntary and allowed early withdrawals before retirement age. One-fifth of contributors withdrew their pension savings as soon as this option became available. Individual-level data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey are used to reveal the balance-sheet and behavioural characteristics of leavers. Aggregate National Accounts and Distributional Wealth Accounts data, and the synthetic differences-in-differences method are applied to assess how the money withdrawn was spent. The leavers had low liquidity, little experience of investing in risky financial assets, and a large outstanding balance of consumer credit, while their households were present-biased and had a high marginal propensity to consume. This profile fits the aggregate estimates on how the withdrawals were spent. A large part of the withdrawals was accumulated as deposits without being reinvested, a substantial fraction was used to pay back consumer debt, and the rest was spent on consumption. The elevated consumption contributed to a temporary hike in inflation. The paper highlights the short-term implications of pension-asset liquidations; further studies are warranted on the longer-run implications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 107475"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146080837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How tax structure shapes FDI attractiveness and economic growth in developing economies? 税收结构如何影响发展中经济体的FDI吸引力和经济增长？

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107513

Quang Khai Nguyen , Dinh Long Tran

{"title":"How tax structure shapes FDI attractiveness and economic growth in developing economies?","authors":"Quang Khai Nguyen , Dinh Long Tran","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107513","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107513","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how tax structure shapes FDI attractiveness and economic growth in developing countries, focusing on two major tax types: taxes on goods and services and taxes on income, profits, and capital gains. We used panel data from 57 developing countries over the period 2000–2021 and applied the fixed-effects, quantile regression, and 3SLS models, with the method of moments quantile regression technique and PROCESS Model 4 as robustness checks. The results show that both tax types are generally associated with lower economic growth but have opposite effects on FDI attractiveness; taxes on goods and services tend to enhance FDI attractiveness, whereas taxes on income, profits, and capital gains reduce FDI attractiveness. In low-growth countries, however, both tax categories positively affect economic growth. Moreover, FDI attractiveness mediates the tax–growth relationship: income-based taxes reduce growth by discouraging FDI, while consumption-based taxes partly offset their negative growth effects by attracting FDI. Overall, the findings highlight that tax design matters as much as revenue levels for investment-led growth in developing countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 107513"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Cross-border M&As, international knowledge flows and global value chain upgrading: Evidence from belt & road countries 跨国并购、国际知识流动与全球价值链升级：来自“一带一路”国家的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107492

Qian Lv , Yicheng Tang , Lulan Ge , Daohan Ni

引用次数: 0

Modeling electricity markets when renewable power increases 可再生能源增加时的电力市场模型

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107504

Clas Eriksson, Johan Lindén, Christos Papahristodoulou

引用次数: 0

Tackling labor market inequalities through minimum and maximum wages 通过最低和最高工资解决劳动力市场不平等问题

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107495

Guilherme Spinato Morlin , Marco Stamegna , David Cano Ortiz , Simone D’Alessandro , Pietro Guarnieri

{"title":"Tackling labor market inequalities through minimum and maximum wages","authors":"Guilherme Spinato Morlin , Marco Stamegna , David Cano Ortiz , Simone D’Alessandro , Pietro Guarnieri","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107495","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107495","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Income inequality in labor markets arises from both inadequate pay at the bottom and excessive remuneration at the top of the wage distribution. Statutory minimum wages have proven effective in addressing low wages and in-work poverty, yet many countries have not fully implemented them. Conversely, salary caps have received relatively little attention as instruments to limit top incomes. This paper examines the effects of introducing both minimum and maximum wages in Italy using Eurogreen, a macro-simulation model that integrates a dynamic input–output framework with labor market heterogeneity. Our findings indicate that the joint implementation of these policies substantially reduces labor market inequalities without compromising overall economic performance. Minimum wages help mitigate disparities across skill levels, occupational groups, and industrial sectors, while maximum wages are particularly effective in narrowing the gender pay gap. These results suggest that well-designed wage policies can serve as powerful tools for fostering more inclusive and equitable labor markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 107495"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146190584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0