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The role of central bank forecasts in uncertain times 央行在不确定时期的预测作用
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107143
Jacek Kotłowski
{"title":"The role of central bank forecasts in uncertain times","authors":"Jacek Kotłowski","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107143","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107143","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Disclosing macroeconomic projection is one of central bank’s key communication tools shaping expectations, which should facilitate monetary policy transmission mechanism. Existing literature indicates that central banks affect expectations of professional forecasters to a varying degree depending on the forecasted variable, forecast horizon or sample selection. We contribute to this literature by investigating this relationship with a specific focus on the role of uncertainty and inflationary environment for this process. Our estimates from a panel model on individual data show that by announcing its projections, Polish central bank affects inflation and GDP expectations of professional forecasters for all examined projection horizons. Importantly, we document that this impact is stronger in periods of large uncertainty or high inflation, in particular for longer-term horizons. Our results signify that central bank projections help private agents in separating signal from noise as in the Woodford model and provide an anchor for longer-term expectations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107143"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144184987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Mitigating foreign fossil fuel shocks: The role of renewable energy and industrial electrification in The Netherlands 减轻外国化石燃料冲击：荷兰可再生能源和工业电气化的作用
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107138
Hettie Boonman , Mauricio Rodriguez
{"title":"Mitigating foreign fossil fuel shocks: The role of renewable energy and industrial electrification in The Netherlands","authors":"Hettie Boonman ,&nbsp;Mauricio Rodriguez","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107138","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107138","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent disruptions in foreign fossil fuel supply have significantly increased the price of imported gas across Europe. From a long-term policy perspective, it is essential to explore strategies to reduce an economy’s exposure to such shocks. Focusing on The Netherlands, we use a computable general equilibrium model with a detailed energy matrix to quantify the potential impact of foreign gas supply disruptions at different stages of the energy transition. Our results indicate that expanding renewable energy capacity and electrifying industries reduce the economic impact of foreign gas supply shocks. Furthermore, encouraging investments that decrease industrial energy consumption can both mitigate the short-term effects of fossil fuel supply disruptions and accelerate the economy’s shift away from energy dependence.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107138"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144240930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The labor share and life expectancy in the U.S.: Suffering from Baumol’s cost disease 美国的劳动收入占比和预期寿命：患有鲍莫尔成本病
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107140
Michael Cauvel , Miguel Alejandro Sanchez
{"title":"The labor share and life expectancy in the U.S.: Suffering from Baumol’s cost disease","authors":"Michael Cauvel ,&nbsp;Miguel Alejandro Sanchez","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107140","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107140","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Life expectancy in the United States has been growing at a slower rate, both in absolute terms and relative to other high-income countries. We argue that this trend can be explained in part by the declining share of income accruing to workers. A falling labor share of income implies productivity growth that outpaces wage growth, reducing workers’ ability to afford the costs of services such as healthcare and education. These services are beneficial for health but increase in cost with productivity growth due to Baumol’s cost disease. We examine these relationships in two ways: time series analysis at the national level and state-level panel regressions. We find that the labor share has a positive effect on the growth rate of life expectancy and that healthcare utilization and education mediate this relationship. Policies that increase the labor share or otherwise make essential services more affordable are needed to improve health.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107140"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144203285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fertility impact of intense precipitation in rural areas: The role of income expectation shocks 强降水对农村地区生育率的影响：收入预期冲击的作用
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107171
Zonglai Kou , Wentian Zhao , Min Zhou
{"title":"Fertility impact of intense precipitation in rural areas: The role of income expectation shocks","authors":"Zonglai Kou ,&nbsp;Wentian Zhao ,&nbsp;Min Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107171","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107171","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of intense precipitation on rural fertility, expanding the discussion on how natural factors influence human reproduction. Although natural elements such as temperature have been shown to play significant roles in fertility, the effect of precipitation remains unclear. Using household-level data from 1986 to 2008, we find that intense precipitation has a significantly suppressive effect on rural fertility. Mechanism analysis indicates that only intense precipitation during the key months corresponding to the flowering and maturity stages of crops significantly reduces fertility, offering strong empirical support for the income expectation shock mechanism while refuting the biological health deterioration hypothesis. Therefore, cultivating more suitable crops and encouraging the use of advanced agricultural technology and infrastructure may help mitigate this negative effect. These findings provide new insights for addressing the challenge of declining fertility rates in rural areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107171"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144196078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatial regimes in heterogeneous territories: The efficiency of local public spending 异质地区的空间制度：地方公共支出的效率
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107139
Francesco Vidoli , Agnese Sacchi , Edgar J. Sanchez Carrera
{"title":"Spatial regimes in heterogeneous territories: The efficiency of local public spending","authors":"Francesco Vidoli ,&nbsp;Agnese Sacchi ,&nbsp;Edgar J. Sanchez Carrera","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107139","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107139","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the impact of spatial heterogeneity on cost efficiency in Italian municipalities, introducing an original method to identify functionally homogeneous territorial areas that differ from existing administrative boundaries. Our method incorporates territorial and geographical dimensions, including latent variables associated with spatial heterogeneity—relevant factors yet often overlooked in previous empirical studies. Using spatial data on road and territory planning services, we identify clusters of municipalities with shared characteristics and measure their relative efficiency within these clusters. Our findings reveal marked territorial disparities in cost efficiency, challenging conventional one-against-all benchmarking methods. Unlike standard approaches that compare each municipality with all others, our method offers a more accurate basis for evaluating municipal performance and informing policy decisions on services to citizens. This contributes to a more effective and equitable allocation of public resources, addressing practical and methodological limitations in the existing literature.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107139"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144168066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Intensity of exploitation-exploration innovation strategies and credit ratings 开发探索创新战略的强度与信用评级
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107169
Balasingham Balachandran , Praveen Bhagawan , Chandrasekhar Krishnamurti , Yun Zhou
{"title":"Intensity of exploitation-exploration innovation strategies and credit ratings","authors":"Balasingham Balachandran ,&nbsp;Praveen Bhagawan ,&nbsp;Chandrasekhar Krishnamurti ,&nbsp;Yun Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107169","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107169","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Our study explores how the intensity of corporate innovation strategies—exploration versus exploitation—affects firms’ credit ratings, an area largely unexplored. Explorative innovation emphasizes uncovering new knowledge, technologies, or markets, and is characterized by experimentation, risk-taking, and a high degree of uncertainty. On the other hand, exploitative innovation focuses on incremental improvements to existing products, processes, or capabilities, aiming to boost efficiency, reduce costs, and deliver short-term gains with lower risk. Analyzing 10,318 firm-year observations in the U.S. from 1985 to 2016, we find that firms adopting exploration (exploitation) intensive strategies tend to receive lower (better) credit ratings. These findings remain robust after addressing endogeneity and self-selection biases. Our results also hold when employing alternative measures of credit ratings and innovation intensity strategies. Our results suggest that the more disruptive exploration strategy results in lower credit rating while the incremental exploitative strategy improves credit ratings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107169"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144177599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Insuring legitimacy: The role of uncertainty perceptions in shaping corporate insurance demand 保险合法性：不确定性认知在塑造公司保险需求中的作用
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107157
Conggang Li , Yijun Liu , Rong Xu , Xingmei Xu
{"title":"Insuring legitimacy: The role of uncertainty perceptions in shaping corporate insurance demand","authors":"Conggang Li ,&nbsp;Yijun Liu ,&nbsp;Rong Xu ,&nbsp;Xingmei Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107157","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107157","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Geopolitical conflicts, economic shifts, and environmental instabilities heighten uncertainties that challenge corporate legitimacy. These uncertainties foster skepticism among stakeholders, prompting firms to adopt risk management strategies. While much research has focused on macro-level uncertainties, less attention has been given to firm-level perceptions and legitimacy-driven responses. Using data from A-share listed firms in China, this study examines how perceived uncertainties influence the demand for directors' and officers' (D&amp;O) liability insurance. We find that this demand arises not only from litigation risks but also from the need for financial protection. External market conditions and internal governance factors, including control quality and political ties, increase the demand for insurance. Additionally, firms adopt alternative risk management strategies such as financialization, ESG engagement, and digital transformation. This study highlights that as uncertainties evolve, firms will increasingly rely on D&amp;O insurance and complementary strategies to safeguard their legitimacy, offering valuable insights for future research and corporate governance practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107157"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144230068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Add-on pricing under cost asymmetries and consumer naïveté 成本不对称和消费者下的附加定价naïveté
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107129
Meenakshi Ghosh
{"title":"Add-on pricing under cost asymmetries and consumer naïveté","authors":"Meenakshi Ghosh","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107129","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107129","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Two firms with asymmetric costs sell vertically and horizontally differentiated goods. Some consumers are naïve and do not observe, or consider, add-on prices until after they have committed to purchasing the base good from a firm. We find that a rise in naïveté distorts product match and lowers consumer surplus despite lower prices paid, on average, by consumers. A greater mass of naïve consumers makes poor decisions, purchasing the cheaper bundle from the efficient firm when they would have been better off buying the costlier bundle from its rival. Although industry profits rise, the efficient firm’s profits decline. An increase in cost asymmetries reduces consumer surplus and increases the mass of consumers who make poor decisions while having opposing effects on the firms’ profits. These findings suggest that interventions aimed at reducing naïveté or cost asymmetries may not be Pareto-improving. An extension of the model explores how market outcomes change as the fraction of consumers with a high valuation of quality varies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107129"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144184986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Macroeconomic impacts of climate change: A semi-structural analysis of unexpected weather conditions in Korea 气候变化的宏观经济影响：韩国意外天气条件的半结构分析
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107131
Dukpa Kim , Yun Jung Kim
{"title":"Macroeconomic impacts of climate change: A semi-structural analysis of unexpected weather conditions in Korea","authors":"Dukpa Kim ,&nbsp;Yun Jung Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107131","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107131","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates how unexpected weather conditions influence macroeconomic activity, addressing the need to better understand the structural nature of weather-induced economic shocks. While prior research has relied on reduced-form regressions or structural models, the underlying mechanisms often remain ambiguous or model-dependent. We propose a semi-structural approach that combines a structural vector autoregression model of the Korean economy with reduced-form regressions linking identified structural shocks to unexpected weather conditions, measured as deviations from historical norms. Our analysis reveals that cold events – heating degree days, freezing degree days, and frost – are associated with adverse supply shocks, while storms and dust storms manifest as demand shocks. These results highlight that the type of macroeconomic shock triggered by weather depends on both the event’s nature and societal resilience. By uncovering the mechanisms through which weather events propagate through the economy, our findings offer a foundation for more targeted and adaptive climate policy responses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107131"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144168067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What shapes greenium in bond markets? Evidence from Japan 在债券市场上，是什么塑造了格林？来自日本的证据
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107159
Urol Berdiev
{"title":"What shapes greenium in bond markets? Evidence from Japan","authors":"Urol Berdiev","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107159","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107159","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, we investigate whether green bonds are issued at lower yield spreads compared to conventional bonds—a phenomenon referred to as the “greenium”. Despite years of research, the existence of a greenium remains inconclusive. To contribute to this ongoing debate, we analyse data from Japan's primary corporate bond market between 2016 and 2023, employing multivariate regression models to assess yield differentials at issuance. We find that the greenium is not universal; it appears only for firms with strong environmental performance, with yield spreads that are 7–17 basis points lower on average. However, the greenium disappears after 2021, coinciding with rising greenwashing concerns and widening global yield spreads. While demand for green bonds appears to matter for the greenium, the post-liquidity difference has little impact. These findings indicate that sustainability performance can influence capital costs, and that credibility and transparency play key roles in maintaining investor trust in green finance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107159"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144147555","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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