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Divergent effects of aggregate and local uncertainty shocks: Evidence from US metropolitan areas 总体和局部不确定性冲击的不同效应：来自美国大都市地区的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107297
Aaron Popp, Fang Zhang
{"title":"Divergent effects of aggregate and local uncertainty shocks: Evidence from US metropolitan areas","authors":"Aaron Popp,&nbsp;Fang Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107297","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107297","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how aggregate and local uncertainty shocks affect US metropolitan areas (MSAs). While an extensive literature documents contractionary effects of aggregate uncertainty shocks on the macroeconomy, the MSA-level effects and mechanisms of local uncertainty shocks remain unexplored. Using monthly data on the 50 largest MSAs, we employ a factor-augmented VAR with stochastic volatilities to identify uncertainty shocks through unexpected variations in common and idiosyncratic volatilities. Aggregate uncertainty consistently contracts economic activity across all MSAs, while local uncertainty generates heterogeneous responses, with one-third of MSAs showing expansions. Cross-sectional analysis reveals that aggregate uncertainty operates through strong contractionary channels (financial access, real options, interest-rate policy), while local uncertainty operates through both contractionary and expansionary channels (growth options, expected returns). These findings demonstrate distinct transmission mechanisms between shock types, providing insights for differentiated policy responses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107297"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145060342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Financial development and inflation targeting: How market structure shapes monetary policy effectiveness 金融发展与通胀目标制：市场结构如何影响货币政策有效性
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107310
Aswathi R Nair , Pushpa L Trivedi , Puja Padhi
{"title":"Financial development and inflation targeting: How market structure shapes monetary policy effectiveness","authors":"Aswathi R Nair ,&nbsp;Pushpa L Trivedi ,&nbsp;Puja Padhi","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107310","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107310","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how financial development shapes monetary policy effectiveness and the role of inflation targeting in this relationship. Prior research has explored the effects of financial development on policy transmission and inflation targeting separately, but evidence on their interaction remains scarce. Using a dynamic panel of 126 countries from 1995 to 2021, we apply System-Generalised Method of Moments estimation to assess how evolving financial structures condition monetary outcomes. The results show that as financial markets become more efficient, price-based policy tools gain traction while quantity-based channels weaken. The components of financial development have divergent effects on inflation: institutional efficiency raises inflation, while institutional depth and market efficiency help to contain it. We also find that inflation-targeting frameworks reduce inflation more effectively when supported by developed financial systems. These findings underline the importance of aligning monetary frameworks with financial structures, offering policy lessons for emerging economies integrating financial reforms with inflation-targeting strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 107310"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145120782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Liquidity premium and the shape of transaction costs 流动性溢价与交易成本的形态
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107269
Sergey Isaenko
{"title":"Liquidity premium and the shape of transaction costs","authors":"Sergey Isaenko","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107269","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107269","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article investigates a dynamic equilibrium in a competitive economy in which wealthy liquidity traders exchange stock shares with liquidity providers. Liquidity traders face bid–ask spreads when placing market orders, with spreads rising proportionally to the order size, modeled here using linear–quadratic transaction costs. Consistent with recent literature, the risk premium is several times larger than in a frictionless market due to a considerable reduction in liquidity traders’ trading demand. Interestingly, the liquidity premium is only weakly affected by the structure of transaction costs. Specifically, it remains virtually unchanged even as the weight of the linear component in transaction costs rises from zero to nearly 100%. The influence of transaction costs on stock prices arises primarily from heterogeneity among agents and their average trading frequency, which changes only marginally despite significant variations in the structure of transaction costs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107269"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145060343","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Population aging and intensified economic downside risk: Evidence from China 人口老龄化与经济下行风险加剧：来自中国的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107304
Xianling Ren, Jinbao Qiao, Jianyue Ji
{"title":"Population aging and intensified economic downside risk: Evidence from China","authors":"Xianling Ren,&nbsp;Jinbao Qiao,&nbsp;Jianyue Ji","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107304","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107304","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of population aging on economic downside risk in China, providing new evidence on the consequences of aging in the literature. While previous research has shown the negative impact of population aging on economic growth, the relationship between aging and downside risk remains unclear. Using data from Chinese provinces (2000–2022), we employ Growth at Risk framework to measure provincial economic downside risk and explore the impact of population aging on it. We find that population aging significantly intensifies economic downside risk, particularly in regions with lower population scale or higher economic development. The intensified economic downside risk is driven by reduced technological innovation, higher fiscal deficits, and slower consumption growth. Additionally, population inflows are found to alleviate the economic risk. These results highlight the necessity of mitigating economic downside risks via coordinated measures addressing innovation, consumption, and fiscal deficits in aging societies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107304"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145048951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Digital regulation and firm productivity: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China 数字监管与企业生产率：来自中国准自然实验的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107306
Kai Wang , Yixuan Wei
{"title":"Digital regulation and firm productivity: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China","authors":"Kai Wang ,&nbsp;Yixuan Wei","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107306","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107306","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of China's pilot Internet courts as an exogenous shock on firm-level total factor productivity (TFP). By employing a staggered difference-in-differences approach, the establishment of Internet courts significantly boosts TFP among pilot firms. The findings show that the positive influence of Internet courts on productivity is primarily through enhancing intellectual property protection, improving the business environment, and accelerating digital transformation. Further analysis reveals that these effects are more pronounced in non-state-owned enterprises, firms in highly competitive markets, and those in industries with high monopoly power, capital intensity, and technological intensity. Overall, the study supports the theoretical benefits of Internet courts and underscores their role in enhancing firm productivity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107306"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145094974","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Functional diversification and GVC exposure: Evidence and implications 功能多样化和全球价值链暴露：证据和启示
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107303
Andrea Coveri , Raffaele Giammetti , Antonello Zanfei
{"title":"Functional diversification and GVC exposure: Evidence and implications","authors":"Andrea Coveri ,&nbsp;Raffaele Giammetti ,&nbsp;Antonello Zanfei","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107303","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107303","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This work examines the links between the diversification of economies across value chain functions and their exposure to disruptions in global value chains (GVCs). We empirically model this relationship by combining new indicators of GVC exposure with an FDI-based measure of functional diversification for a wide range of countries and industries in 2003–2018. Our results show that greater functional diversification lowers GVC exposure on average, at both the country and industry levels. However, this negative relationship holds for Scale-intensive and Supplier-dominated industries, not for Science-based and Specialized supplier industries. This seems consistent with the greater need for the latter types of industries to rely on global sourcing of specific components and knowledge assets located abroad. Our findings are robust to the inclusion of several control factors and confirmed by System-GMM model estimates accounting for potential endogeneity concerns. Accordingly, industrial policies aimed at expanding the array of value chain functions should be complemented by a careful selection of global partners for the supply of key inputs and tailored to the specific needs of different industries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107303"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145094975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Transfers or subsidies? Comparing mitigation strategies for energy price shocks in a production network model 转移支付还是补贴？比较生产网络模型中能源价格冲击的缓解策略
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107296
Natascha Hinterlang , Marius Jäger , Nikolai Stähler , Johannes Strobel
{"title":"Transfers or subsidies? Comparing mitigation strategies for energy price shocks in a production network model","authors":"Natascha Hinterlang ,&nbsp;Marius Jäger ,&nbsp;Nikolai Stähler ,&nbsp;Johannes Strobel","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107296","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107296","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The dependency on imported essential production inputs poses a threat of abrupt price hikes and shortages, potentially triggered by political events. The energy crisis resulting from the Russian war of aggression is an example. Using a dynamic multi-sector economic model that is calibrated to Germany and incorporates endogenous firm entry and exit, this study investigates whether governments should bolster production via transfers or cost subsidies in the event of a crisis. Findings suggest that subsidizing production costs is more beneficial for economic activity and welfare, provided the energy demand due to the subsidy does not significantly influence the price of the essential production input. If it does, this approach could become exceedingly expensive. In such scenarios, it is economically more efficient to provide lump-sum transfers to firms. The effectiveness of these policies ultimately hinges on their impact on the price of the imported input.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107296"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145026897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does digital platform governance improve process innovation? Evidence from Apple's tracking policies 数字平台治理能改善流程创新吗？来自苹果追踪政策的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107298
Wei Wu, Wei Han
{"title":"Does digital platform governance improve process innovation? Evidence from Apple's tracking policies","authors":"Wei Wu,&nbsp;Wei Han","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107298","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107298","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates whether digital platform governance improves firms' process innovation, addressing gaps in understanding how platform policies influence innovation dynamics in digital markets. Existing literature predominantly focuses on static innovation measures, failing to capture the iterative nature of digital product development cycles. Using gaming app data from iOS and Android platforms across 60 countries from 2019 to 2022, we employ a difference-in-differences approach to examine Apple's privacy policy impact on process innovation. Our analysis reveals that Apple's tracking policy significantly accelerates app update frequency, with developers increasing updates by 32.45% following policy announcement and 7 times more frequently after implementation. Cross-platform and cross-product knowledge flows moderate these effects, with advantages emerging during policy announcement but reversing during implementation phases. These findings demonstrate that appropriately designed platform governance can stimulate rather than stifle innovation through constraint-induced adaptation mechanisms, providing new insights into digital platform economics and implications for privacy policy design.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107298"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145048953","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Financial connectedness in the digital age: The impact of regional FinTech development 数字时代的金融连通性：区域金融科技发展的影响
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107290
Weijia Wang, He Ni
{"title":"Financial connectedness in the digital age: The impact of regional FinTech development","authors":"Weijia Wang,&nbsp;He Ni","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107290","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107290","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates how FinTech development affects financial institutions’ network connectedness and systemic risk in China’s rapidly digitalizing financial sector. While existing research examines FinTech’s impact on financial stability, these approaches inadequately address how FinTech reshapes broader financial network structures. Using data from Chinese listed financial institutions from 2011 to 2021, we measure connectedness through stock-return interconnections and employ panel regression analysis to examine the relationship with regional FinTech development. Our analysis reveals that FinTech development significantly enhances financial institutions’ network connectedness, with this impact moderated by industry concentration and internal FinTech innovation. The effects are stronger in digitization and usage depth dimensions and more pronounced in non-state-owned institutions. These findings demonstrate that FinTech creates new systemic risk transmission channels through digital platform effects and technological interdependence. The results provide crucial insights for regulatory frameworks addressing systemic risk in financial digitalization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107290"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145094976","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Digital government and air pollution inequality: Evidence from Chinese cities 数字政府与空气污染不平等：来自中国城市的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107301
Mengling Zhou , Xinyi Du
{"title":"Digital government and air pollution inequality: Evidence from Chinese cities","authors":"Mengling Zhou ,&nbsp;Xinyi Du","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107301","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107301","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The uneven spatial distribution of air pollution represents a significant externality problem in environmental governance. Using novel government procurement data from 283 Chinese cities, we examine whether and how digital government initiatives mitigate air pollution inequality. We construct an objective measure of digital government investment based on procurement contracts and employ a Theil index of PM2.5 concentrations to quantify interregional air pollution inequality. Our findings demonstrate that digital government significantly reduces air pollution inequality through enhanced public supervision, optimized resource allocation, and accelerated green technology diffusion. Machine learning analyses reveal that digital government's impact exhibits an optimal threshold at 5.18, while heterogeneity analyses show differential impacts across sample percentiles, digital procurement types, and pollution intensity levels. These findings provide important policy insights for leveraging digital governance tools to achieve more equitable and sustainable environmental outcomes in emerging economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107301"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145048952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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