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How does digital technology adoption affect corporate employment? Evidence from China
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107045
Yuwen Zhou , Xin Shi
{"title":"How does digital technology adoption affect corporate employment? Evidence from China","authors":"Yuwen Zhou ,&nbsp;Xin Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107045","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107045","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rapid adoption of digital technologies has sparked debates about their employment effects, yet evidence from developing economies remains limited. Previous studies highlight labor market polarization, where automation disproportionately displaces low-skilled workers while benefiting high-skilled ones. Using text analysis of corporate disclosures, we measure digital adoption across Chinese firms (2010–2019) and estimate its employment impacts. A one standard deviation increase in digital adoption raises corporate employment by 5.47%, driven by shifts toward non-routine cognitive roles and higher-educated employees. Digital adoption also increases average wages but leaves labor share unchanged. Three mechanisms explain these effects: total factor productivity (TFP) gains, market share expansion, and capital deepening, with TFP contributing most strongly. These results reveal how digital technologies reshape employment structures, emphasizing the need for firms to balance technological investments with organizational adaptation to mitigate skill mismatches.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107045"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143529248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Customer risk disclosure and supplier innovation strategy: A risk spillover perspective
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107062
Jie Liu , Chuan Zhang , Hanwen Chen
{"title":"Customer risk disclosure and supplier innovation strategy: A risk spillover perspective","authors":"Jie Liu ,&nbsp;Chuan Zhang ,&nbsp;Hanwen Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107062","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107062","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of customers' risk factor disclosure on suppliers' innovation strategy decisions. Previous research has focused on the phenomenon of risk contagion in supply chain risk, and less on the countermeasures behind the phenomenon. Using supplier-customer matching data for Chinese A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2021, we find that upstream suppliers are more likely to engage in breakthrough inventions than incremental suppliers when downstream customers reveal more risk factors. Revealing risk factors for three types of customers, namely high bargaining power, low sales potential, and long distances, is closely related to driving suppliers to make breakthrough innovations. The results of the mechanistic test indicate that spillover of supply chain risk reduces suppliers' willingness to maintain relationships with high-risk customers. Suppliers make innovative decisions to enhance firm value when confronted with increased risk factor disclosures from downstream supply chain customers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107062"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143561872","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimal environmental policy and distortionary fiscal policy interactions: A DSGE perspective
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107037
Mehrab Kiarsi , Nahid Masoudi
{"title":"Optimal environmental policy and distortionary fiscal policy interactions: A DSGE perspective","authors":"Mehrab Kiarsi ,&nbsp;Nahid Masoudi","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107037","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107037","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the interactions between optimal environmental and distortionary fiscal policies within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework using analytical and quantitative methods. We demonstrate that the marginal cost of public funds can exceed, be equal, or fall below one, based on utility specifications and the degree of relative risk aversion. This variation can lead to under-, over-, or optimally taxed environmental damages, with the latter two suggesting the potential for a strong double dividend. Furthermore, we challenge conventional labor tax smoothing theory, showing that a Ramsey-optimal policy allows labor tax volatility in the absence of carbon taxation. Our quantitative analysis reveals that an effective carbon policy reduces fluctuations and significantly mitigates contractions in major economic variables such as GDP, consumption, and welfare in response to environmental shocks. Increased pollution leads to higher emission costs, prompting the Ramsey planner to raise the carbon tax and increase abatement efforts. However, positive government spending or productivity shocks increase the cost of abatement, leading to lower carbon taxes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107037"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143488962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cultural values and interbank markets: An agent-based stock-flow consistent model
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107042
Jessica Reale , Alessio Emanuele Biondo
{"title":"Cultural values and interbank markets: An agent-based stock-flow consistent model","authors":"Jessica Reale ,&nbsp;Alessio Emanuele Biondo","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107042","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107042","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent financial crises have revealed tensions in interbank markets, challenging conventional monetary policies and financial stability. After the sovereign debt crisis, shifts in banks’ funding preferences led to numerous issues in payment systems and European financial integration. Through this study, we analyzed the impact of firms’, households’, and bank managers’ personal values on their financial decisions in credit and interbank markets, highlighting how cultural differences influence financial choices<span><math><mo>−</mo></math></span>a critical factor that remains insufficiently addressed in the existing literature. To address this gap, we incorporated individual values into firms’ and households’ leverage attitudes and banks’ risk-taking behavior, thereby shaping interbank funding maturities and impacting monetary policy outcomes within an agent-based stock-flow consistent framework. The results of this study suggest the following: (i) value distributions featuring risk-averse banks and prudent households promote economic growth; however, they do so at the cost of increasing shock vulnerabilities; (ii) cultural diversity may challenge interest rate steering policies; (iii) imbalanced cultural distributions exhibit divergent speeds of adjustment and require tailored monetary policies to mitigate the disproportionate effects on culturally diverse economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107042"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143478492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An interest rate rule following the natural rate of interest for optimal monetary policy
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107040
Jeong Eui Suh
{"title":"An interest rate rule following the natural rate of interest for optimal monetary policy","authors":"Jeong Eui Suh","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107040","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107040","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The natural rate of interest (NRI) plays a critical role in maintaining stable and effective monetary policy. However, its unobservable nature has led most research to focus on quantitative methods for identifying its shifts, leaving theoretical approaches relatively underexplored. This study addresses this gap by examining how a central bank can implement optimal monetary policy within the New Keynesian framework by tracking NRI fluctuations after real shocks. The analysis demonstrates that when economic agents have strong confidence in policy consistency, the central bank can accurately detect NRI shifts within two periods, regardless of the type of real shocks. This finding implies that adopting an NRI-based interest rate rule may contribute to enhancing policy effectiveness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107040"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143478491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What is the role of profit and luxury consumption in the ecological transition?
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107050
Federica Cappelli , Stefano Di Bucchianico
{"title":"What is the role of profit and luxury consumption in the ecological transition?","authors":"Federica Cappelli ,&nbsp;Stefano Di Bucchianico","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107050","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107050","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Empirical evidence has demonstrated the essential role of income distribution and richer households’ consumption patterns in determining excessive consumption–generated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To analyse this issue at the theoretical level, we employ the distinction between subsistence and luxury emissions and examine the connection between income distribution and environmentally wasteful emissions caused by luxury consumption. In our model, physical surplus production makes room for positive profitability. Income in the form of profits enables wasteful luxury consumption and boosts consumption–generated GHG emissions. We illustrate greener consumption, reformist and just transition scenarios to delineate social and environmental boundaries. Only the just transition scenario is found to be a viable option to respect both boundaries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107050"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143527453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A generalized constant elasticity of volatility and correlation ratio (CEVC) model: Empirical evidence and application for portfolio optimization
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107039
Marcos Escobar-Anel
{"title":"A generalized constant elasticity of volatility and correlation ratio (CEVC) model: Empirical evidence and application for portfolio optimization","authors":"Marcos Escobar-Anel","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107039","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107039","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study developed a multivariate continuous-time model enabling a generalized constant elasticity of volatility (CEV) model on the marginal and a new stylized fact named constant elasticity of correlation ratio (CEC) in the dependence structure. Therefore, the entire structure is called the generalized constant elasticity of volatility and correlation ratio (CEVC) model. The model inherited the usefulness of the one-dimensional CEV model for pricing and portfolio optimization purposes. It enhances this model to ensure better-behaved volatility of returns. A unique weak solution exists for the multidimensional stochastic differential equations. Empirical analysis indicates the significance of the elasticity parameters driving the CEVC model and insights into the dynamics of volatilities and correlations. We estimated the embedded n-dimensional generalized CEV model (i.e., no CEC), the CEC model (i.e., no CEV), and the geometric Brownian motion (GBM, no CEC or CEV). The model was applied to portfolio optimization based on expected utility theory. The findings yield closed-form solutions for optimal strategies and value functions compared to other models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107039"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143464735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Effects of wage compensation and containment policies on Labor supply during pandemics
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107030
Luciana C. Fiorini , Wilfredo L. Maldonado
{"title":"Effects of wage compensation and containment policies on Labor supply during pandemics","authors":"Luciana C. Fiorini ,&nbsp;Wilfredo L. Maldonado","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107030","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107030","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The importance of combining wage compensation policies with contagion containment strategies during a pandemic became evident after the COVID-19 pandemic. We examine the impact of these policies on the labor market using an aggregative game framework that describes the interaction of individual and aggregate labor supply decisions, which has not been considered in previous approaches. Workers must choose their labor supply considering the probability of contagion and compensation for income reductions in case of infection and assess the probability of contagion based on the public perception of the aggregate labor supply. We analyze the effects of changes in contagion containment parameters and wage compensation policies on individual and aggregate labor supplies. We also demonstrate evident labor supply cycles and persistent oscillations in contagion probability values, which are commonly observed in pandemic processes. We conclude that successful public policies that are intended to stabilize the labor market depend on a combination of instruments that consider population size and workers’ risk aversion.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107030"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143534795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Global value chains participation and pollution emissions? Theory and evidence from Chinese enterprises
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107049
Geng Huang , Xi Lin , Ling-Yun He
{"title":"Global value chains participation and pollution emissions? Theory and evidence from Chinese enterprises","authors":"Geng Huang ,&nbsp;Xi Lin ,&nbsp;Ling-Yun He","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107049","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107049","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Participation in global value chains (GVC) is vital for economic growth and can impact environmental sustainability. This study constructs a theoretical model which incorporates enterprise's behavior of pollution emissions and uses instrumental variable regressions to examine the environmental effects of GVC integration on enterprises. Specifically, this paper employs micro-level data from China for empirical analysis and measures the degree of enterprise's embedding in GVC. Our results indicate that deeper GVC integration reduces both pollution emissions and intensity. Besides, GVC participation can affect enterprise's pollution emission through abatement investment effect, technical effect and scale effect. While GVC participation may increase emissions due to higher production, it enhances technological capabilities and investment in pollution control, which reduces net emissions. Furthermore, since energy efficiency is another important aspect of enterprise's environmental performance, we also examine the relationship between GVC integration and energy efficiency. We find that GVC integration improves enterprises' energy efficiency, underscoring its positive ecological impact. Overall, GVC participation promotes sustainable practices, indicating that it is a strategic approach for enterprises seeking to balance economic and environmental goals. As GVC participation continues to expand globally, its influence on fostering sustainable industrial practices will become increasingly significant, making it a crucial area for future research and policy development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107049"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143549617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Demographic change and long-term economic growth path in Asia
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107043
Jong-Wha Lee , Eunbi Song
{"title":"Demographic change and long-term economic growth path in Asia","authors":"Jong-Wha Lee ,&nbsp;Eunbi Song","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107043","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107043","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Asia faces significant demographic challenges with uncertain economic implications. This study projects the economic trajectories of major Asian economies over 50 years using a growth model focused on demographic change. It provides a practical, tractable growth projection framework that avoids complex dynamic optimization. Utilizing historical data, this framework consists physical and human capital accumulation, technological progress, and labor-capital substitution. While a slowing labor force poses challenges, it does not predetermine Asia's growth prospects. The simulation results highlight the importance of technological progress and physical and human capital investment in mitigating demographic impacts. Projections suggest China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate will decline to 0.9–2.5% during 2051–2070. China will surpass Japan in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)-adjusted GDP per capita by 2050 and approach about 90% of the US level by 2070. India is projected to outpace the US in GDP by 2050 and potentially surpass China by 2070.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107043"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143527454","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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