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Public data openness and private enterprise growth: The roles of local resource allocation and cross-regional collaborative innovation 公共数据开放与民营企业成长：地方资源配置与跨区域协同创新的作用
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107519
Liang Liu , Yuanyue Dang , Zhen Ju
{"title":"Public data openness and private enterprise growth: The roles of local resource allocation and cross-regional collaborative innovation","authors":"Liang Liu ,&nbsp;Yuanyue Dang ,&nbsp;Zhen Ju","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107519","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107519","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of public data openness on the growth of private enterprises, addressing the limited focus on private enterprises in existing literature. Exploiting the staggered launch of provincial public data open platforms in China as a quasi-natural experiment, a panel of Chinese listed private firms from 2009 to 2022 is analyzed using a staggered difference-in-differences approach. The results show that public data openness significantly enhances private firm growth. Mechanism analyses indicate that this effect operates through improved local resource allocation and firms’ integration into cross-regional innovation networks. Further heterogeneity analyses reveal that the growth-enhancing effect varies with firm characteristics, platform openness themes, and government data governance capacity. Overall, the findings confirm the inclusive nature of public data openness and provide policy-relevant implications for provincial governments seeking to improve public data governance and for private enterprises aiming to utilize public data more effectively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 107519"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Tax evasion and the productivity distribution 偷税漏税与生产力分配
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107480
Francesco Menoncin , Andrea Modena , Luca Regis
{"title":"Tax evasion and the productivity distribution","authors":"Francesco Menoncin ,&nbsp;Andrea Modena ,&nbsp;Luca Regis","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107480","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107480","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We develop a heterogeneous-firm macroeconomic model to investigate how tax evasion affects the productivity distribution in general equilibrium. In our model, entrepreneurs choose capital and labor to produce with their firms, invest in bonds, and evade taxes to maximize their intertemporal utility, derived from dividends. Firms face leverage constraints and uninsurable productivity shocks. The results reveal that tax evasion redistributes capital toward low-productivity firms, relaxing their leverage constraints. It also increases public debt, raising the cost of capital and crowding out firms at the margin. As a result of these forces, we demonstrate that (i) the decline in high-productivity firms’ average productivity drives the negative correlation between the size of the shadow economy and aggregate productivity, and (ii) the productivity gains from reduced tax evasion are smaller in economies with higher public debt and stricter leverage constraints.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 107480"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146015802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Foreign affiliate performance: independence, location and parental control 国外子公司表现：独立性、位置和家长控制
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107496
Nigel Driffield , James H. Love , Stefano Menghinello , Meng Song
{"title":"Foreign affiliate performance: independence, location and parental control","authors":"Nigel Driffield ,&nbsp;James H. Love ,&nbsp;Stefano Menghinello ,&nbsp;Meng Song","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107496","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107496","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the causes of foreign affiliate performance, exploring the importance of the relationships between affiliates and parents in explaining apparent performance differences. By making use of a large firm level database, linking firm level data to numerous sources of official country level data, we explore the importance of headquarters effects, affiliate level effects, and location effects in terms of firm performance. Further, we contrast the effects in terms of both productivity and profitability. Affiliate-level factors explain most of affiliate performance. There are parent-level influences on affiliate performance, but not from the parent's location. Our analysis provides insights into the interaction of parent (i.e. HQ) attributes with those of the foreign affiliate, as well as the locations of both HQ and affiliate, and thus provides insights into the complexity of these relationships.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 107496"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146190585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cross-border data regulation and export quality: Evidence from China 跨境数据监管与出口质量：来自中国的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107493
Yu Liu , Huan Yu
{"title":"Cross-border data regulation and export quality: Evidence from China","authors":"Yu Liu ,&nbsp;Huan Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107493","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107493","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Existing literature predominantly focuses on traditional trade barriers, with relatively limited exploration of new types of obstacles in the digital era. Based on data from Chinese customs and the OECD spanning from 2014 to 2021, this study examines the impact of host countries' cross-border data regulations on China's export quality. The findings reveal that (1) host countries' cross-border data regulations significantly suppress China's export quality; (2) moderating effects indicate that improvements in technological innovation and human capital levels can mitigate the inhibitory effect of cross-border data regulations on export product quality; and (3) heterogeneity analysis shows that this negative impact is more pronounced in China's exports to developed economies and economies with higher levels of digital economy development, with a particularly significant impact on high-tech industries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 107493"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146080835","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Systematic risk profiling: Assessing compounding economic risks in developing countries 系统风险分析：评估发展中国家的复合经济风险
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107511
Askar Mukashov , Sherman Robinson , Channing Arndt , James Thurlow , Tim Thomas
{"title":"Systematic risk profiling: Assessing compounding economic risks in developing countries","authors":"Askar Mukashov ,&nbsp;Sherman Robinson ,&nbsp;Channing Arndt ,&nbsp;James Thurlow ,&nbsp;Tim Thomas","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107511","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107511","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents a systematic risk profiling (SRP) framework to identify the most critical economic risks facing developing countries. Integrating computable general equilibrium (CGE) models with historical shock data and machine-learning tools, we examine how compound shocks affect development outcomes. We apply this method to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi, simulating thousands of plausible combinations of world price, capital flow, and productivity exogenous shocks and their impacts on countries' GDP, household consumption, poverty, and undernourishment. The results reveal distinct risk profiles driven by structural differences: Kenya's primary vulnerability is the volatility in global beverage crop prices, whereas Rwanda and Malawi face the highest risks from domestic root crop and cereal yields, respectively. These findings underscore that vulnerability is not just a function of shock magnitude, but of the specific structure of each economy. Specifically, the high economic volatility in Malawi and Rwanda is driven by the larger role of subsistence agriculture and more volatile domestic yields, whereas Kenya's agricultural sector is more export-oriented. Unlike standard ad hoc scenario analysis, SRP quantifies both the likelihood of compound events and the relative importance of their drivers. This transparent, scalable framework provides policymakers a new tool to move beyond reactive measures and design targeted, country-specific resilience strategies for an increasingly volatile world.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 107511"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191049","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Market professional performance under insider information leakage 内幕信息泄露下的市场专业表现
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107500
Yu Ma , Hong Liu , Jing Wang
{"title":"Market professional performance under insider information leakage","authors":"Yu Ma ,&nbsp;Hong Liu ,&nbsp;Jing Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107500","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107500","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We construct a multiagent model in which an insider simultaneously discloses information to a market professional and outsiders, and characterize the resulting linear equilibrium. Our analysis yields three main results. First, the insider strategically adjusts the precision of disclosure based on the quality of the market professional information. Second, when the market professional is well-informed, their expected profits under information leakage exceed those without leakage, resulting in a form of self-relative outperformance that departs from previous theories. Third, market liquidity and price efficiency exhibit an inverted U-shaped relationship with the precision of the market professional’s information. Using Chinese A-share data, we find empirical evidence consistent with these predictions. We find that information spillovers may coexist with stronger incentives for information production, underscoring the need for tailored regulatory approaches.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 107500"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146039928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inflation volatility under rational inattention: A semi-parametric model and the directional volatility ratio 理性不注意下的通货膨胀波动率：半参数模型与定向波动率
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107516
Alfredo Garcia-Hiernaux , Maria T. Gonzalez-Perez , David E. Guerrero
{"title":"Inflation volatility under rational inattention: A semi-parametric model and the directional volatility ratio","authors":"Alfredo Garcia-Hiernaux ,&nbsp;Maria T. Gonzalez-Perez ,&nbsp;David E. Guerrero","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107516","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107516","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a semi-parametric volatility model to estimate inflation volatility within a conceptual framework that incorporates rational inattention and price stickiness. The model is applied to inflation data for Germany, France, Spain, the Eurozone, the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Canada over the period 2002–2024, and the United States during the Great Inflation and Moderation (1965–1990). Our estimator outperforms standard parametric and non-parametric alternatives in forecasting inflation volatility and exhibits a strong empirical relationship with survey-based measures of inflation uncertainty. We also introduce the Directional Volatility Ratio (DVR), a novel measure that captures time-varying asymmetries in the relationship between inflation levels and volatility. This measure is effective for tracking shifting inflation trends, identifying turning points, and characterizing inflation risk across different regimes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 107516"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Producing more, reproducing less: The demographic costs of China's export success 生产更多，再生产更少：中国出口成功的人口成本
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107440
Yumeng Yang, Yunong Li, Han Sheng, Mao Zhou
{"title":"Producing more, reproducing less: The demographic costs of China's export success","authors":"Yumeng Yang,&nbsp;Yunong Li,&nbsp;Han Sheng,&nbsp;Mao Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107440","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107440","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of export growth on fertility, coinciding with the abolition of the One-child Policy and subsequent relaxation of birth control policies in China. Using micro-level survey data, we employ a shift-share instrumental variables strategy to examine the causal effects. Our analysis reveals that married women residing in prefectures with greater export growth are significantly less likely to give birth. Additional analysis shows that export growth raises married women's wages, thereby increasing the opportunity cost of fertility and shifting household resource allocation by reducing maternal time devoted to childcare while boosting monetary investment in children's education. Social norms also emerge as an essential channel. These findings offer new insights into how economic development shapes demographic outcomes and provide implications for developing more women-supportive environments that reconcile labor market participation with family formation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 107440"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145886322","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Production networks and structural transformation 生产网络和结构转型
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107461
Fernando Barros Jr , Bruno R. Delalibera , Marcos J. Ribeiro , Marc Teignier
{"title":"Production networks and structural transformation","authors":"Fernando Barros Jr ,&nbsp;Bruno R. Delalibera ,&nbsp;Marcos J. Ribeiro ,&nbsp;Marc Teignier","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107461","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107461","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the aggregate effects of greater integration of traditional and modern services into national supply chains. Using international input–output data, we document substantial cross-country variation in the composition of intermediate goods and identify distinct sectoral patterns. That is, modern services are more prevalent in advanced economies and are becoming increasingly central within production networks. To evaluate the implications, we construct a multisector general equilibrium model incorporating firm-level frictions in labor hiring and intermediate input purchases. These distortions weaken intersectoral linkages and distort production efficiency. Reducing them to US levels generates significant gains – aggregate output increases by 27% on average and by 50% in developing economies – while accelerating structural transformation toward services, particularly modern services, and enhancing their network centrality.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 107461"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145979087","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The environmental administrative penalties and firm digital transformation: A reexamination of Porter Hypothesis 环境行政处罚与企业数字化转型：对波特假设的重新审视
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107481
Youzhi Xiao , Xin Liu
{"title":"The environmental administrative penalties and firm digital transformation: A reexamination of Porter Hypothesis","authors":"Youzhi Xiao ,&nbsp;Xin Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107481","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107481","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As rapid development of digital technologies, whether the Porter Hypothesis of environmental regulations satisfies, especially the strong version of the Porter Hypothesis, under the situations of the digital economy is a key issue to be considered. By utilizing the environmental administrative penalties (EAP) and the data from listed firms in China from 2010 to 2022, we find EAP significantly inhibit firm digital transformation, indicating the strong version of Porter Hypothesis does not satisfy. The plausible channels show the EAP dose not encourage the firms to conduct digital innovation. Moreover, we find the EAP promote firms investing in pro-environmental projects, make the firms pay more attention to the environmental issues, make the firms pay more attention to short-term interest and reduce the acquisition of external resources. Our results provide a new understanding of Porter Hypothesis and suggest that the digital technologies should be attached more importance to environmental sustainability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 107481"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145979086","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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