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Does vocational education pay off in China? Evidence from city-level education supply shocks 中国的职业教育有回报吗？来自城市层面教育供给冲击的证据
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2024-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106863
{"title":"Does vocational education pay off in China? Evidence from city-level education supply shocks","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106863","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106863","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>China hosts the world’s largest secondary education sector: more than 14 million adolescents enrol in secondary academic and vocational schools every year. Despite the large literature on returns to education, little evidence exists as to how these two streams compare in the country. Using 2013 China Household Income Project data, we estimate the returns to secondary vocational education both at the mean and along the conditional wage distribution. We use instrumental variables based on the considerable variation in education provision across cities and years (and a 1995 policy reform). We find that vocational education generates a large wage premium (up to 54%), especially for those of lower earnings potential. Our findings indicate that vocational education can be a good option for those who do not wish to enter tertiary education, especially the less well-off.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999324002207/pdfft?md5=b8853017a391c34ef010d8cb2c4535d5&pid=1-s2.0-S0264999324002207-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142083255","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Contagion mechanism of liquidity risk in the interbank network 银行间网络流动性风险的传染机制
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2024-08-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106873
{"title":"Contagion mechanism of liquidity risk in the interbank network","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106873","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106873","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Since the global financial crisis of 2007–2009, preventing financial crises has become one of the most important objectives of regulators and banks. Although previous studies have identified the phenomenon of risk contagion in the banking system, the underlying mechanisms of risk contagion are still unclear. This study delves into the multi-stage contagion mechanism of liquidity risk based on interbank lending linkages and clearing rules and introduces a new index to quantify bank liquidity risk. We find that the contagion of liquidity risk is primarily determined by the network structure of risk exposures between banks in default and is not significantly influenced by the lending relationships of banks that remain solvent. The empirical results suggest that banks with high risk should be prioritized for cash injections to improve system liquidity. These findings offer new insights into financial risk contagion and practical recommendations for regulatory authorities formulating intervention strategies and for banks conducting risk management.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142077485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does the environmental tax affect the within-firm pay gap? Evidence from China 环境税是否影响企业内部薪酬差距？来自中国的证据
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2024-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106872
{"title":"Does the environmental tax affect the within-firm pay gap? Evidence from China","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106872","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106872","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The impact of the environmental tax on internal income distribution within firms is a crucial extension for evaluating the economic effects of environmental regulation policies. However, the existing literature focuses primarily on environmental effects and the Porter hypothesis, giving little attention to this topic. Using data from Chinese A-share listed companies from 2018 to 2021, we examine how the Chinese environmental protection tax affects intrafirm wage disparities. Our findings indicate that the environmental tax widens the pay gap between managerial and ordinary employees. Mechanism tests show that the environmental tax's governance effect raises managerial compensation levels, whereas cost effects decrease wages for ordinary employees. This effect is particularly pronounced in nonstate-owned firms, competitive industries, and regions with stricter environmental tax collection standards. This study makes an empirical contribution to our understanding of the effects of the environmental tax on income distribution in practice.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142058247","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Digital economy and economic competitive pressure on local governments: Evidence from China 数字经济与地方政府面临的经济竞争压力：来自中国的证据
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106859
{"title":"Digital economy and economic competitive pressure on local governments: Evidence from China","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106859","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106859","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>For decades, fiscal decentralization and gross domestic product growth targeting have resulted in fierce economic competition among local governments in China, putting tremendous economic competitive pressure on them. The latter has serious social and economic implications and is a major issue for policymakers. This study analyzes data from China's 30 provinces for 2011–2021. It demonstrates that digital economic development could considerably reduce economic, competitive pressure on local governments, with trade openness and entrepreneurial dynamism serving as impact mechanisms. This study also found that the alleviating effects are more pronounced in regions with a poor innovation environment, a less developed economy, or lagging human resources. These findings emphasize the important role of the digital economy in increasing regional competitiveness and reducing regional disparities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999324002165/pdfft?md5=114f50eb989602d6900a20e55f6a6a7e&pid=1-s2.0-S0264999324002165-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142087112","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Global drivers of inflation: The role of supply chain disruptions and commodity price shocks 通货膨胀的全球驱动因素：供应链中断和商品价格冲击的作用
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106860
{"title":"Global drivers of inflation: The role of supply chain disruptions and commodity price shocks","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106860","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106860","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The determinants of inflation rates have been extensively studied with no clear consensus. Recent research highlights the growing influence of global supply factors, notably supply chain disruptions and commodity price shocks. This paper analyzes the changing impact of these global supply chain disruptions and commodity price shocks, compared to demand shocks, on inflation rates in Germany, Japan, the U.K., and the U.S. from 1998 to 2022. The findings reveal that since the mid-2010s, supply shocks have become the predominant drivers of inflation. After the Global Financial Crisis, commodity price shocks significantly affected inflation in Germany, the U.K., and the U.S., while the influence of global supply chain disruptions on inflation in all four countries surged following the COVID-19 pandemic.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999324002177/pdfft?md5=3544bfe5fd7c2897c0104bb7a23b762f&pid=1-s2.0-S0264999324002177-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142087110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What drives labor force participation rate variability? The case of West Virginia 是什么导致了劳动力参与率的变化？西弗吉尼亚州的案例
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106861
{"title":"What drives labor force participation rate variability? The case of West Virginia","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106861","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106861","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study examines the dynamics of labor force participation rates across counties in West Virginia to better understand local labor market integration and the factors influencing fluctuations in participation. Drawing on county-level data from January 1990 to July 2020, the research employs a dynamic factor model to decompose labor force participation rates into latent factors at the state, metropolitan/non-metropolitan, and county levels. The findings reveal a general lack of labor market integration across West Virginia, highlighting potential opportunities for growth through enhanced integration. Further analysis using panel data models identifies key determinants of labor force participation, including personal income, education, infrastructure, and the prominence of industries such as agriculture and natural gas. The results underscore the necessity for targeted county-level policies to bolster employment and promote economic expansion within the state.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999324002189/pdfft?md5=12d3840b692bfd3ec7947ea391bcbac5&pid=1-s2.0-S0264999324002189-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142048675","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do tax revenues track economic growth? Comparing panel data estimators 税收是否与经济增长同步？比较面板数据估算器
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2024-08-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106867
{"title":"Do tax revenues track economic growth? Comparing panel data estimators","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106867","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106867","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Determining how economic growth affects tax revenues is crucial for fiscal sustainability, economic stabilization, and policy design. The current literature on tax buoyancy presents contrasting estimates, highlighting the need for a systematic discussion of the trade-offs associated with different estimators. This paper provides new empirical evidence by reviewing a range of panel data estimators in a large sample of 172 countries from 1990 to 2019. We find evidence of lower estimates for tax responses to economic activity in the short term relative to previous literature, suggesting a limited automatic stabilization power of tax systems. The heterogeneity in our results within and across income groups underscores the importance of choosing the appropriate estimator. Our results remain broadly unchanged when we introduce new control variables to disentangle discretionary from automatic tax revenue variations, indicating that economic cycles do not significantly influence the timing of tax policies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999324002244/pdfft?md5=7600c21e7bbbc1b28d608fb582e8b29f&pid=1-s2.0-S0264999324002244-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142048637","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Making digital technology innovation happen: The role of the CEO's information technology backgrounds 实现数字技术创新：首席执行官信息技术背景的作用
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2024-08-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106866
{"title":"Making digital technology innovation happen: The role of the CEO's information technology backgrounds","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106866","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106866","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Chief executive officers (CEOs) are the leaders of corporate innovation, but little is known about which types of CEOs are more conducive to digital technology innovation. Based on Chinese listed manufacturing companies from 2013 to 2020, we examine the effect of the information technology (IT) background of CEOs on digital technological innovation. The results show that CEOs' IT backgrounds significantly promote digital technology innovation. Curbing managerial myopia is the mechanism involved while strengthening digital sensemaking does not exist. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the facilitating role of CEOs' IT background is more pronounced when their power is more extensive, the company is nonstate-owned, mature, and large, and the region is highly marketized. Our findings contribute to the literature on the impact of executive characteristics on innovation and provide a reference for companies to promote digital technology innovation through the employment of specific CEOs.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142039940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Surname distance and interregional investments 姓氏距离和地区间投资
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2024-08-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106858
{"title":"Surname distance and interregional investments","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106858","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106858","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Interregional capital mobility is crucial for high-quality development. Existing literature highlights the role of geographical and boundary effects on interregional investment, but often overlooks cultural differences. Using administrative records of business registration data covering nearly 200 million firms in mainland China from 2005 to 2022, we construct a novel panel data on interregional investment networks and reveal that surname distance as a metric of cultural differences significantly inhibits interregional investment, with elasticities of −0.955 and −0.713 on the amount and quantity, respectively. Furthermore, the mechanism analysis demonstrates that increased surname distance heightens survival risks, shortens market duration, and leads to more litigation for firms investing in culturally distant regions. This impact intensifies over time, is more significant in regions with low marketization levels, and has a pronounced effect on intraprovincial investments.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142002060","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Multibenchmark reality checks 多基准现实检查
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2024-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106848
{"title":"Multibenchmark reality checks","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106848","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106848","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Empirical economic modelers often have to choose between two classes of models, with each class containing multiple models. In many cases, this decision is based on the predictive ability of the considered models. This entails that multiple testing and/or p-hacking pose known risks. This study presents a new statistical approach for comparing all model in a single test, serving as a multi-benchmark reality check test. The behavior of the test is studied asymptotically and in small finite samples. We show how the new approach works by analyzing whether one family of linear bivariate models outperforms a univariate family in predicting commodity prices. This paper raises new questions for future research. From an empirical viewpoint, we present several open questions in economic modeling that can be tested with multi-benchmark tests. Meanwhile, from a theoretical viewpoint, further studies can investigate whether a more general method for approximating or simulating the test distribution can be developed.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999324002050/pdfft?md5=8fe46243b7d8dd56e25a17cfa5c3b4f7&pid=1-s2.0-S0264999324002050-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142077484","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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