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Non-cognitive skills and earnings of informal workers in China 中国非正式工人的非认知技能与收入
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-04-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107106
Xi Chen, Xinyi Wu
{"title":"Non-cognitive skills and earnings of informal workers in China","authors":"Xi Chen,&nbsp;Xinyi Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107106","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107106","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the relationship between non-cognitive skills and wage earnings among informal workers. While existing research underscores the significance of non-cognitive skills in shaping labor market outcomes, their role within the informal sector remains under-explored. Utilizing data from the China Family Panel Studies, we analyze how non-cognitive skills, as measured by the Big Five personality traits, locus of control, and challenge-affiliation preference, predict wages in China’s informal labor market. Our findings reveal that openness, emotional stability, an internal locus of control, and a preference for challenge are positively associated with earnings, with effects varying across the earnings distribution and occupational categories. Further analysis identifies human capital accumulation, social capital formation, and occupational choice as key mechanisms underlying these relationships. These findings enhance our understanding of informal labor markets and offer policy insights for improving earnings through targeted skill development initiatives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 107106"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143891012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does redistribution hurt growth? An empirical assessment of the redistribution–growth relationship in the European Union 再分配会损害经济增长吗？欧盟再分配与增长关系的实证评估
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-04-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107104
Michael Christl , Silvia De Poli , Monika Köppl-Turyna
{"title":"Does redistribution hurt growth? An empirical assessment of the redistribution–growth relationship in the European Union","authors":"Michael Christl ,&nbsp;Silvia De Poli ,&nbsp;Monika Köppl-Turyna","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107104","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107104","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact of inequality and redistribution on economic growth in the EU. While past research finds inequality harms long-term growth, the effects of redistribution remain debated. Using panel data from 25 EU countries (2007–2019), we introduce the Net Benefit Share as a measure for targeted redistribution. Our findings show that market inequality boosts short-term growth, but redistribution targeted to low-income households further enhances it mainly via the consumption channel. In contrast, redistribution to high-income earners and pensioners reduces growth. These results highlight the importance of well-targeted redistributive policies for economic performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 107104"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143887606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A dynamic model of real-financial markets interaction 真实金融市场互动的动态模型
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-04-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107103
Serena Sordi , Ahmad Naimzada , Marwil J. Davila-Fernandez
{"title":"A dynamic model of real-financial markets interaction","authors":"Serena Sordi ,&nbsp;Ahmad Naimzada ,&nbsp;Marwil J. Davila-Fernandez","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107103","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107103","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The global recession brought on by the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic has reignited interest in understanding the relationship between business cycles and financial conditions. This paper proposes a macrodynamic model that captures the interaction between the stock market (SM) and the economy’s real sector (RS), which is fueled by two distinct sources of persistent fluctuations. The SM incorporates two types of speculators, namely, chartists and fundamentalists, whereas the RS is a simplified version of Goodwin’s growth cycle model that distinguishes between labor and capital incomes. This framework connects the chartist–fundamentalist literature to Goodwin’s model for the first time. The interaction is based on two key assumptions: (<em>i</em>) investment decisions are influenced by profits and stock prices, and (<em>ii</em>) speculators perceive the fundamental value of the stock as proportional to national output. This interaction of real and financial dynamics causes fluctuations due to the sensitivity of investment to stock prices and the proportionality between stock fundamentals and output.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 107103"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143891011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessment of the output floor in an agent-based credit network model 基于代理的信用网络模型中产出下限的评估
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-04-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107101
Corentin Roussel
{"title":"Assessment of the output floor in an agent-based credit network model","authors":"Corentin Roussel","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107101","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107101","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper evaluates the effectiveness of the output floor, a key component of the Basel III finalization within an agent-based credit network model encompassing both corporate and interbank loan markets with heterogeneous firms and banks. The model is designed to replicate the evolution of key financial indicators in the Euro Area and is calibrated to empirical output floor settings. The findings confirm that the output floor is a crucial tool for enhancing banking regulation efficiency. It raises the average and reduces the dispersion of risk-weighted asset (RWA) density (i.e., the RWA-to-total assets ratio) across banks. Additionally, it improves alignment between the RWA densities of banks using the internal ratings-based and standardized approaches, thereby strengthening financial actors’ confidence in banking regulation. However, accommodative monetary policy fosters risk accumulation in the banking sector, undermining the output floor’s effectiveness, while tighter monetary policy has the opposite effect. Consequently, financial regulators must carefully coordinate policies to ensure banking stability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 107101"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143859808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Elderly labor supply, endogenous grandparental childcare, and fertility in an OLG model 基于OLG模型的老年劳动力供给、内生祖父母抚养与生育率
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-04-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107102
Mauro Maria Baldi, Raffaella Coppier, Elisabetta Michetti
{"title":"Elderly labor supply, endogenous grandparental childcare, and fertility in an OLG model","authors":"Mauro Maria Baldi,&nbsp;Raffaella Coppier,&nbsp;Elisabetta Michetti","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107102","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107102","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper explores how grandparental childcare influences fertility decisions, elderly labor supply, and economic development. We model the time elderly individuals allocate between work and caring for grandchildren. In high-income countries, higher wages lead to increased investments in children’s education and human capital. Interestingly, the decision to work in old age does not depend on economic development but on wage dynamics. Specifically, when the effective wage grows rapidly, grandparents are more likely to work, even while caring for grandchildren. These findings highlight the importance of intergenerational time transfers in shaping economic outcomes. Future research could explore the long-term effects of aging populations on labor markets and family dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 107102"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143874057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Shill Advertising 尖刻的广告
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-04-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107098
Jeong-Yoo Kim , Nathan Berg
{"title":"Shill Advertising","authors":"Jeong-Yoo Kim ,&nbsp;Nathan Berg","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107098","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107098","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Shill advertising occurs when sellers confidentially pay influencers to transmit favorable messages about a product. Here, we present a two-period model involving informed sellers, influencers, and second-period followers. Our model addresses why sellers of low-quality products engage more in shill advertising, despite the longstanding argument that high-quality sellers advertise more to encourage repeat purchases. We show that high-quality sellers have less incentive to engage in shill advertising, as doing so undermines the credibility of word-of-mouth communication from first-period influencers. This new insight into advertising behavior is primarily driven by what we call the “credibility effect”.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 107098"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143859807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The power of the business group: Differences in firm hiring decisions under labor protection shock 企业集团的权力：劳动保护冲击下企业招聘决策的差异
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-04-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107108
Yiwen Shangguan , Qiyangfan Feng
{"title":"The power of the business group: Differences in firm hiring decisions under labor protection shock","authors":"Yiwen Shangguan ,&nbsp;Qiyangfan Feng","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107108","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107108","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Labor protection shocks significantly influence firms' employment decisions. Previous studies have highlighted varying labor employment behaviors in response to such shocks, but they have not focused on the distinctions between group-affiliated and unaffiliated firms. Using the Labor Contract Law (LCL) in China as an exogenous labor protection shock, we constructed a unique firm-group level database to investigate the differences in employment responses between these two types of firms. Our findings reveal that while the LCL reduced overall labor employment, its impact on group-affiliated firms was considerably less severe than on unaffiliated firms. This more measured adjustment in employment is mainly attributable to the reallocation of liquid assets among affiliated firms within business groups. By adopting such strategies, group-affiliated firms attained relatively better performance in total factor productivity and profitability compared to non-affiliated firms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 107108"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143865078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatial interactions and micro-enterprises’ uptake of COVID-19 financial aid: Evidence from a spatial hurdle probit model 空间互动与微企业接受新冠肺炎资金援助：来自空间障碍probit模型的证据
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-04-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107087
Alessio Tomelleri , Anna Gloria Billé
{"title":"Spatial interactions and micro-enterprises’ uptake of COVID-19 financial aid: Evidence from a spatial hurdle probit model","authors":"Alessio Tomelleri ,&nbsp;Anna Gloria Billé","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107087","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107087","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of spatial interactions on local government financial aid uptake among micro-enterprises (MEs) during the COVID-19 pandemic. While government support measures played a critical role in mitigating the crisis, the extent to which eligible firms applied for these benefits remains understudied. Using a representative survey of MEs in Trentino, Italy, linked to administrative data, we employ a spatial hurdle probit model to assess how information sharing among firms influences uptake decisions. Results show that MEs with similar levels of pre-pandemic economic performance in terms of added value tend to reciprocally influence each other in deciding to ask for public aid, with spatial interactions particularly significant in peripheral areas. Our findings highlight the importance of peer effects in shaping firms’ responses to public support measures, offering insights for policymakers aiming to improve the accessibility and effectiveness of financial aid programs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 107087"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143850708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Joint spousal ownership and corporate green innovation: Empirical evidence from family businesses listed on China's A-shares market 配偶共同所有权与企业绿色创新：来自中国a股上市家族企业的经验证据
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-04-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107107
Liming Hong , Changhong Zhang , Sajid Anwar , Lijie Wang
{"title":"Joint spousal ownership and corporate green innovation: Empirical evidence from family businesses listed on China's A-shares market","authors":"Liming Hong ,&nbsp;Changhong Zhang ,&nbsp;Sajid Anwar ,&nbsp;Lijie Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107107","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107107","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using data on Chinese family businesses spanning 2004 to 2022, this paper investigates the impact of joint spousal ownership on green innovation. The findings indicate that firms with joint spousal ownership exhibit significantly higher levels of green innovation compared to those without such ownership structures. This effect is primarily driven by two mechanisms: increased female executive representation and improved environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance. Notably, joint spousal ownership has a more pronounced influence on green innovation than on traditional innovation, suggesting a stronger alignment with proactive environmental policies. Further analysis identifies moderating factors that enhance green innovation, including intergenerational succession planning, harmonious spousal relationships, long-term business goals, a focus on light industry, and limited involvement of other family members. Overall, this paper provides novel empirical evidence on how joint spousal ownership shapes strategic decision-making in family businesses, particularly in the context of sustainable development and global green economic trends.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 107107"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143823925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The momentum life cycle re-examined: Using incongruent value-growth to identify the momentum stage of stocks 动量生命周期的再检验：用不一致的价值增长来确定股票的动量阶段
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-04-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107109
Carlos Forner
{"title":"The momentum life cycle re-examined: Using incongruent value-growth to identify the momentum stage of stocks","authors":"Carlos Forner","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107109","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107109","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The momentum life cycle (MLC) hypothesis aims to reconcile short-term momentum and long-term reversion observed in stock returns. While the MLC offers a valuable framework, it faces notable limitations: it fails to account for certain return patterns, and its ability to detect momentum stages may be mostly spurious. Using data from the five largest capital markets in the Eurozone from 1998 to 2014, along with cross-sectional regression and portfolio-based methodologies, this study re-examines the MLC. It introduces the incongruent value/growth (IVG) characteristic as an alternative to the commonly used trading volume to identify momentum stages within the MLC. The results show that using IVG significantly enhances the identification of early- and late-stage momentum stocks. Two key implications emerge: first, strategies that integrate momentum with IVG outperform those that combine momentum with trading volume; second, IVG helps address some of the MLC's key limitations, providing stronger empirical support for the hypothesis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 107109"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143870657","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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