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Distrust and disclosure: Greenwashing governance and the neglected incentive withdrawal signals of environmental subsidies 不信任与披露：漂绿治理与被忽视的环境补贴激励退出信号
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107462
Tong Yue , Jian Tong , Xinyi Wen , Chengjun Chu
{"title":"Distrust and disclosure: Greenwashing governance and the neglected incentive withdrawal signals of environmental subsidies","authors":"Tong Yue ,&nbsp;Jian Tong ,&nbsp;Xinyi Wen ,&nbsp;Chengjun Chu","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107462","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107462","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how incentive withdrawal signals embedded in environmental subsidies help curb corporate greenwashing. Drawing on information asymmetry theory, we develop a signaling model that captures the strategic interaction between greenwashing and subsidy allocation and validate it using evidence from Chinese firms. We find that greenwashing reduces environmental subsidies by 0.602 %, primarily through two mechanisms: unfulfilled presubsidy environmental commitments and negative spillovers from external evaluations. Positive information disclosure, in turn, enhances government trust. Compared with firms that report strong financial performance or receive favorable external evaluations, poorly performing firms experience larger subsidy reductions of 0.498 %–0.784 % when engaged in greenwashing. These results demonstrate that subsidy withdrawal is an effective tool for governing the “gray area” of greenwashing and underscore the adaptive role of local authorities operating under limited information.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 107462"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145940095","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Natural disasters and the effects of reconstruction expenditure on output 自然灾害和重建支出对产出的影响
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107458
Christos Chrysanthakopoulos , Athanasios Tagkalakis
{"title":"Natural disasters and the effects of reconstruction expenditure on output","authors":"Christos Chrysanthakopoulos ,&nbsp;Athanasios Tagkalakis","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107458","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107458","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using a panel of 116 advanced, emerging market, and developing economies over 1990–2022, we examine the immediate impact of natural disasters on economic activity and public finances, and the medium-term effects of post-disaster reconstruction through public spending. Natural disasters significantly reduce output and worsen fiscal balances, with extreme events causing larger losses than major disasters. Employing a panel local-projection approach combined with instrumental variables and robustness checks, we find that reconstruction spending can effectively promote medium-term growth. Specifically, a 1 % increase in real cyclically adjusted government expenditure after an extreme disaster raises real output by about 2.5 % five years later. The positive effects are stronger in countries with lower public debt, lower trade openness, higher financial development, fixed exchange-rate regimes, and in emerging markets rather than advanced or least developed economies. Effects are also larger in countries with higher old-age dependency ratios and lower reliance on agriculture or tourism.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 107458"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145940097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Business dynamics and credit shocks: Evidence from local markets in Brazil 商业动态和信贷冲击：来自巴西当地市场的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107384
Ana Abras , Camila F.S. Campos , Bruno de Paula Rocha
{"title":"Business dynamics and credit shocks: Evidence from local markets in Brazil","authors":"Ana Abras ,&nbsp;Camila F.S. Campos ,&nbsp;Bruno de Paula Rocha","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107384","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107384","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study brings together the literature on public banks and business dynamics by showing the reallocating consequences of the exit of public banks in a large emerging economy. We study a financial sector restructuring program in Brazil that privatized regional banks and we consider the relationship between local public credit availability and business dynamics. Our measure of financial restriction is the exits of regional public banks from local markets. Our empirical exercises show that regional public credit operates in the economy through the prevention of job destruction and the exit of establishments. Moreover, our results indicate that shutting down sources of local public credit accelerated the exit rate of establishments, increased the rate of job destruction while also increasing job creation from new establishments. The results are consistent with the interpretation that firms which enjoyed patronage from local banks had to exit the market following the privatization program and new businesses entered establishing relationships with private banks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 107384"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145940098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fragile firms, fierce shocks: The asymmetric firm-level transmission of monetary policy in India 脆弱的企业，猛烈的冲击：印度货币政策在企业层面的不对称传导
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107463
Abhay Pratap Raghuvanshi , Wasim Ahmad
{"title":"Fragile firms, fierce shocks: The asymmetric firm-level transmission of monetary policy in India","authors":"Abhay Pratap Raghuvanshi ,&nbsp;Wasim Ahmad","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107463","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107463","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How do firm characteristics shape the real effects of monetary policy in emerging markets, and which firms bear the highest cost of tightening? Using firm-level data for India from 2011 to 2022, this paper examines heterogeneity in monetary transmission, focusing on balance-sheet strength, market power, and ownership. Using a panel local-projection framework, we estimate the dynamic response of firm sales to monetary policy shocks. Tightening shocks lead to larger sales contractions among firms with higher leverage, weaker liquidity and profitability, and smaller asset bases. Policy effects are also asymmetric: financially fragile firms suffer a deeper sales reduction during the expansion phase of the business cycle than during the contraction phase. The findings suggest that monetary transmission in emerging markets operates through a balance-sheet channel, where credit frictions amplify the impact of policy shocks, rendering firm financial resilience crucial to the effectiveness of transmission.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 107463"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145940103","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Asymmetric wage and employment dynamics in segmented labour markets 细分劳动力市场中不对称的工资和就业动态
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107486
Srinivasan Murali , Abhishek Naresh , Jong Kook Shin , Chetan Subramanian
{"title":"Asymmetric wage and employment dynamics in segmented labour markets","authors":"Srinivasan Murali ,&nbsp;Abhishek Naresh ,&nbsp;Jong Kook Shin ,&nbsp;Chetan Subramanian","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107486","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107486","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using data from the Indian Annual Survey of Industries, we document that regular workers exhibit asymmetric wage and employment dynamics, while contract workers display asymmetric employment but symmetric wage dynamics. Specifically, <span><math><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>i</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span> the nominal wage growth of regular workers is positively skewed, while that of contract workers is nearly symmetric, and <span><math><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>i</mi><mi>i</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span> employment growth for both groups is negatively skewed, with contract employment being less negatively skewed than regular. To account for these patterns, we extend a workhorse business cycle model with asymmetric wage adjustment costs for regular labour and symmetric wage adjustment costs for contract labour, along with symmetric labour adjustment costs for the regular sector. Our calibrated model shows that the presence of contract labour relaxes the constraint imposed by downward nominal wage rigidity, thereby reducing the optimal grease inflation towards zero.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 107486"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Greening through credit: Green credit and polluting firm dynamics in China 通过信贷实现绿色：中国绿色信贷与污染企业动态
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107476
Minzhi Wang , Xinxin Guo , Yu Gu
{"title":"Greening through credit: Green credit and polluting firm dynamics in China","authors":"Minzhi Wang ,&nbsp;Xinxin Guo ,&nbsp;Yu Gu","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107476","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107476","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Exploiting China's green credit policy (GCP) as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper examines the impact of green credit on polluting firm dynamics using a difference-in-differences method. We show that the GCP reduces the number of firm entries by 10.1 % and increases the number of firm exits by 9.1 % in polluting industries. Our mechanism analyses further corroborate that the GCP significantly intensifies financing constraints for polluting firms, resulting in increased entry barriers and operational costs. Heterogeneous tests show that the effect is more pronounced in cities with a higher level of marketization or stricter environmental regulation and industries with higher market competition or larger irreversible investments. Additionally, we find that the GCP leads to better-quality entrants with larger scale, higher total factor productivity, and lower pollution discharge intensity. These results imply that the GCP promotes efficient resource allocation, manifested in the transfer of production factors to more productive and cleaner firms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 107476"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145940102","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bank fintech and corporate environmental information disclosure: The role of financial mismatch 银行金融科技与企业环境信息披露：金融错配的作用
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107479
Ailian Zhang, Yuxin Zhao, Bai Liu
{"title":"Bank fintech and corporate environmental information disclosure: The role of financial mismatch","authors":"Ailian Zhang,&nbsp;Yuxin Zhao,&nbsp;Bai Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107479","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107479","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite banks' central role as corporate creditors, existing literature offers limited evidence on their influence over firms' environmental behavior, particularly regarding bank fintech and corporate environmental information disclosure (EID). Based on Chinese listed firms from 2014 to 2023, this paper shows that bank fintech correlates with lower levels of EID. The underlying mechanism is that bank fintech alleviates financial mismatches, thereby reducing firms' incentives to signal environmental responsibility through disclosure. Corporate digital transformation attenuates this effect. The negative impact of bank fintech on EID is more pronounced for non–state-owned firms; firms facing lower financing constraints and with higher ESG scores; firms located in regions with weaker environmental regulation and financial development; and firms operating in highly competitive, non–heavily polluting industries. Importantly, bank fintech is found to improve firms’ actual environmental performance. These findings provide new insights into the determinants of EID and offer policy-relevant implications for environmental governance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 107479"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145979083","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
IPR protection and markup in China: Balancing innovation incentives and markup distortions 中国的知识产权保护与加价：平衡创新激励与加价扭曲
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107488
Lihao Wang , Jiwen Chai , Song Nie , Shangrong Han
{"title":"IPR protection and markup in China: Balancing innovation incentives and markup distortions","authors":"Lihao Wang ,&nbsp;Jiwen Chai ,&nbsp;Song Nie ,&nbsp;Shangrong Han","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107488","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107488","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the context of rising markups worldwide, this study examines the role of intellectual property rights (IPR) protection in influencing firm-level markups and the mechanisms underlying this effect. Theoretically, we show that stronger IPR protection enhances firms’ innovation incentives, thereby increasing their pricing power. Empirically, using a quasinatural experiment and firm-level data from Chinese A-share-listed companies (2001–2020), we find that more robust IPR policies significantly increase patenting, citations and intangible assets—evidence of enhanced innovation. These policies also lead to higher markups, indicating increased market power. The effects are greater among high-tech and large firms. Results remain robust to a range of sensitivity checks and endogeneity concerns. Our findings reveal a key trade-off: while IPR reforms promote innovation, they may also distort competition through markup inflation. Therefore, policymakers should balance innovation incentives with measures to preserve market contestability, particularly in the increasingly intangible economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 107488"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cost efficiency and gender diversity in microfinance: A stochastic frontier approach 小额信贷的成本效率和性别多样性：一个随机前沿方法
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107473
Moh’d Al-Azzam , David H. Bernstein , Christopher F. Parmeter
{"title":"Cost efficiency and gender diversity in microfinance: A stochastic frontier approach","authors":"Moh’d Al-Azzam ,&nbsp;David H. Bernstein ,&nbsp;Christopher F. Parmeter","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107473","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107473","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cost efficiency in microfinance reveals whether microfinance institutions (MFIs) can serve the vulnerable sustainably or survive by relying on subsidies or passing inefficiencies to clients. As MFIs strive for sustainability, the role of gender — where women make up the majority of borrowers and more than one-third of MFIs’ employees — remains central to understanding efficiency. Using data from 1507 MFIs in 111 countries (2010–2018), we apply cutting-edge panel stochastic frontier models to assess global efficiency trends and the roles of women as borrowers and employees. We find that global efficiency declined, especially among larger MFIs, despite increasing returns to scale. MFIs that serve more women or hire more loan officers are associated with more inefficiencies. The effect of other women employees varies by role and profit orientation. Women in leadership improve efficiency in nonprofits but reduce it in for-profit MFIs, whereas female staff improve efficiency only in for-profit MFIs. These findings call for more targeted gender strategies to enhance inclusion and sustainability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 107473"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145979088","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Growth vs. sustainability: Economic development and environmental governance in transition periods policy 增长与可持续性：转型时期的经济发展与环境治理政策
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107433
Chen You , Sijin Chen , Heer Wang
{"title":"Growth vs. sustainability: Economic development and environmental governance in transition periods policy","authors":"Chen You ,&nbsp;Sijin Chen ,&nbsp;Heer Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107433","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107433","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Although transition period policies are common in government reforms, their economic and environmental effects remain underexplored. From the perspective of time-bound decentralization, we argue that setting a transition period (STP) creates a paradox: it promotes economic growth while worsening air pollution. Using China's county–city merger reform from 2000 to 2022 as a quasiexperiment, this study investigates how STP influences economic development and environmental outcomes. The results show that counties with STP policies experience both faster economic growth and higher air pollution compared with those without STP. These findings remain robust across multiple validation tests. Mechanism analysis identifies resource allocation, enterprise selection, and land development as key transmission channels, while geographic conditions, policy status, and industrial foundations further shape outcomes. We conclude that additional regulatory safeguards within STP policies are essential to balance economic expansion with environmental protection.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 107433"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145940096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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