以杠杆带动增长的循环资本模式与银行业相结合

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-08-30 DOI:10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107275

Hyun Woong Park

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引用次数: 0

摘要

在具有有效需求的资本循环模式下，经济增长基本上是由杠杆主导的。本文通过纳入银行业和相关金融变量扩展了资本循环模型，确定了三种类型的增长机制：企业杠杆主导、银行杠杆主导和投资主导。主要发现如下。首先，在投资和稳健杠杆的推动下，增长潜力最为强劲，但这会导致利率无限上升。相比之下，银行杠杆主导的增长对增长和利率都设定了上限。其次，所有增长类型的利率都在上升，除了银行杠杆主导的增长，在某些条件下利率可能会下降。第三，不同增长类型对金融脆弱性的影响不同：投资拉动型增长对金融脆弱性没有影响，企业杠杆拉动型增长提高了金融脆弱性，而银行杠杆拉动型增长降低了金融脆弱性。

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Leverage–led growth in the circuit of capital model with a banking sector

Economic growth in the circuit of capital model with effective demand is fundamentally leverage-led. This paper extends the circuit of capital model by incorporating a banking sector and related financial variables, identifying three types of growth regime: firm leverage-led, bank leverage-led, and investment-led. The key findings are as follows. First, growth potential is strongest when driven by investment and firm leverage, but this leads to an unbounded rise in the interest rates. In contrast, bank leverage-led growth imposes upper limits on both growth and the interest rate. Second, the interest rate rises across all growth types, except in bank leverage-led growth, where the interest rate may fall under certain conditions. Third, the effects on financial fragility differ across growth types: investment-led growth has no impact on it, firm leverage-led growth raises it, and bank leverage-led growth reduces it.

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来源期刊

Economic Modelling ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

8.00

自引率

10.60%

发文量

295

期刊介绍： Economic Modelling fills a major gap in the economics literature, providing a single source of both theoretical and applied papers on economic modelling. The journal prime objective is to provide an international review of the state-of-the-art in economic modelling. Economic Modelling publishes the complete versions of many large-scale models of industrially advanced economies which have been developed for policy analysis. Examples are the Bank of England Model and the US Federal Reserve Board Model which had hitherto been unpublished. As individual models are revised and updated, the journal publishes subsequent papers dealing with these revisions, so keeping its readers as up to date as possible.