Economic Modelling最新文献

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Environmental regulation, green innovation, and productivity: Crowding-out or reallocation? 环境监管、绿色创新与生产力:挤出还是再配置?
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107418
Yi Jiang (伊 江) , Richard S.J. Tol
{"title":"Environmental regulation, green innovation, and productivity: Crowding-out or reallocation?","authors":"Yi Jiang (伊 江) ,&nbsp;Richard S.J. Tol","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107418","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107418","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Does environmental regulation enhance firm productivity through reallocation toward green innovation, conditional on firms' pollution intensity and productivity levels? We analyze Chinese listed firms (2010–2018) using a Crépon–Duguet–Mairesse recursive framework, a three-equation causal chain that links regulation, innovation, and productivity. We find that a variety of environmental policies raise compliance costs, crowding-out average R&amp;D investment. Non-green innovation yields higher productivity returns in low-pollution firms and exhibits a U-shaped return pattern across the productivity distribution, whereas green innovation's returns follow an inverted-U-shaped profile, peaking at medium-high productivity—where, for high-pollution firms, they exceed those of non-green innovation, boosting TFP. These results provide mechanism-based evidence for the strong Porter hypothesis as a context-dependent reconfiguration of technological and productive efficiency under regulatory stimuli. Policy support for green innovation should be targeted at high-pollution, mid-to-high-productivity firms based on verifiable outcomes, turning the crowding-out of R&amp;D into productive reallocation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107418"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145789950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
State-owned capital participation and customer concentration in private firms: Evidence from China 国有资本参与与民营企业客户集中度:来自中国的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107402
Jie Wang , Wanli Li
{"title":"State-owned capital participation and customer concentration in private firms: Evidence from China","authors":"Jie Wang ,&nbsp;Wanli Li","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107402","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107402","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using data from Chinese listed firms between 2007 and 2023, this study examines how state-owned capital participation affects the customer concentration of private firms. We find that state-owned capital participation helps reduce the customer concentration of private firms, which is more pronounced in lower-market-oriented regions and under higher economic policy uncertainty. Mechanism tests show that state-owned capital participation influences customer concentration by enhancing corporate reputation, strengthening financing capacity, increasing government procurement, and reducing information asymmetry. We also find that state-owned capital participation can strengthen market position, reduce operational risks, and enhance supply chain resilience for private firms. Overall, the study provides novel evidence on the determinants of customer concentration from an institutional perspective, highlighting the important role of ownership structure in shaping firms’ customer relationships.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107402"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145616228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Heterogeneity in pricing behavior in hybrid DSGE-ABM macrodynamics 混合DSGE-ABM宏观动力学中定价行为的异质性
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107387
Nikolas Schiozer , Gilberto Tadeu Lima , Michel Alexandre
{"title":"Heterogeneity in pricing behavior in hybrid DSGE-ABM macrodynamics","authors":"Nikolas Schiozer ,&nbsp;Gilberto Tadeu Lima ,&nbsp;Michel Alexandre","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107387","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107387","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Evidence demonstrates that pricing behavior is persistently heterogeneous across firms. We explore hybrid dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE)-agent-based modeling (ABM) macrodynamics in which firms periodically revise (and possibly switch) pricing strategies. Firms choose a pricing heuristic from a set of alternatives encompassing a cost-based heuristic with a standard markup, a cost-based heuristic with a quality-adjusted markup, and a heuristic of following competitors’ pricing behavior. For illustration, we employ a simulated method of moments to calibrate the model with quarterly data for the United States. The model qualitatively replicates several empirical facts about firms’ strategic pricing behavior, particularly with respect to the frequency and magnitude of price adjustments. Two key findings are price stickiness and persistent heterogeneity in pricing behavior, with no single pricing rule becoming dominant. A local sensitivity analysis was conducted on selected key micro-level and macro-level parameters, with results indicating that price stickiness and persistent heterogeneity in firms’ pricing behavior are driven by a combination of both micro- and macroeconomic factors. Embedding some tenets of the ABM approach such as introducing heterogeneous firms evolutionarily learning and adapting to the environment into the DSGE model enables us to qualitatively reproduce the persistent heterogeneity in pricing behavior across firms without compromising its ability to reproduce several stylized macroeconomic facts. A key broad policy implication is that the microdiversity and macrodynamics of the economy are inherently co-evolutionary phenomena.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107387"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145537070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
International food price swings and their consequences for the Chinese economy 国际食品价格波动及其对中国经济的影响
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107400
Ming Che , Zixiang Zhu , Yake Wen , Yujia Li
{"title":"International food price swings and their consequences for the Chinese economy","authors":"Ming Che ,&nbsp;Zixiang Zhu ,&nbsp;Yake Wen ,&nbsp;Yujia Li","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107400","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107400","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the effects of international food price spikes caused by supply disruptions on China's economy. Existing literature recognizes food supply shocks as key drivers of global price volatility but offers limited insight into their impact on China's macroeconomy. Using a proxy Bayesian Vector Autoregression model with food supply shocks as an instrumental variable, we find that these shocks act as negative supply shocks, raising inflation, reducing output, and triggering monetary policy tightening in China. While the inflationary impact is consistent across economic states, the contractionary effect on economic activity is mainly concentrated in expansionary periods. Our results are robust across various model specifications, including larger structural VAR models. Time-varying analysis shows that inflationary effects have weakened over time, while output effects have strengthened. These findings enhance understanding of how global food supply shocks propagate to China and provide valuable guidance for policymakers managing economic disruptions post-2020.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107400"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145616198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Can place-based digital policy drive corporate digital technology innovation? Evidence from China 基于地点的数字政策能否推动企业数字技术创新?来自中国的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107459
Yuan Feng , Changfei Nie
{"title":"Can place-based digital policy drive corporate digital technology innovation? Evidence from China","authors":"Yuan Feng ,&nbsp;Changfei Nie","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107459","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107459","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact of place-based digital policy on corporate digital technology innovation (DTI), addressing an underexplored area in the literature on place-based policies and the drivers of DTI. While prior studies have focused primarily on traditional policy instruments and firm-level characteristics, the role of place-based digital policies in fostering corporate DTI remains insufficiently understood. Exploiting the establishment of national new-generation artificial intelligence innovation and development pilot zones (AIPZs) in China as an exogenous policy shock, and using a sample of Chinese A-share listed firms, we employ a multi-period difference-in-differences approach to identify the causal effect of the AIPZs policy on corporate DTI. The results show that the AIPZs policy significantly enhances firms' digital technology innovation. This effect is further strengthened by firms' digital transformation and executives’ digital backgrounds and operates through increased R&amp;D investment, improved human capital, and reduced operating costs. Overall, these findings provide empirical evidence on the effectiveness of place-based digital policies and deepen our understanding of policy-driven digital innovation ecosystems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107459"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145883711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
From school to work: How alumni networks on LinkedIn shape PhD journeys 从学校到工作:LinkedIn上的校友网络如何塑造博士之旅
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107419
Haoqian Zou
{"title":"From school to work: How alumni networks on LinkedIn shape PhD journeys","authors":"Haoqian Zou","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107419","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107419","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper explores how alumni networks shape the school-to-work migration of PhD graduates entering nonacademic sectors. Using résumés collected from LinkedIn, I assembled a dataset of roughly 300,000 PhD graduates from 145 R1 universities between 1980 and 2016. The dataset provides detailed information on education and employment histories, enabling analysis of alumni stock and migration flows across school–state pairs. I employ panel regressions at the school–destination level, incorporating origin-year, destination-year, and origin–destination interactive fixed effects to address omitted-variable bias. The results show that a larger number of managerial alumni is positively associated with migration, likely reflecting a supportive role for new graduates. Conversely, more junior alumni are linked to lower migration, suggesting potential competitive pressures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107419"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145737061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Economic policy uncertainty, ESG practices, and investment inefficiency in U.S. firms 美国企业的经济政策不确定性、ESG实践与投资效率低下
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107414
Mahbouba Nasraoui , Aymen Ajina , Fabrice Herve
{"title":"Economic policy uncertainty, ESG practices, and investment inefficiency in U.S. firms","authors":"Mahbouba Nasraoui ,&nbsp;Aymen Ajina ,&nbsp;Fabrice Herve","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107414","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107414","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) influences the efficiency of corporate investments and whether strong environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices impact this relationship. Using data on U.S. firms from 2010 to 2022, we find that higher EPU leads to greater investment inefficiency, including both under- and overinvestment. When faced with uncertainty, firms tend to favor R&amp;D over capital expenditures, reflecting a preference for flexibility. We also show that information asymmetry intensifies the negative impact of uncertainty on investment decisions. Importantly, robust ESG practices help mitigate the adverse impact of EPU by easing financial constraints and reducing information asymmetry. These results highlight the value of ESG as a stabilizing force in uncertain environments. More broadly, the study underscores the importance of integrating ESG considerations into corporate strategies to foster stability and sustainable growth amid evolving economic conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107414"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145684382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Green taxes, the environment, and the economy: A theoretical analysis using an overlapping generations model with endogenous longevity 绿色税收、环境与经济:基于具有内生寿命的重叠代模型的理论分析
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107415
Sichao Wei , David Aadland
{"title":"Green taxes, the environment, and the economy: A theoretical analysis using an overlapping generations model with endogenous longevity","authors":"Sichao Wei ,&nbsp;David Aadland","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107415","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107415","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Green taxes are designed to mitigate the environmental pollution that causes millions of premature deaths worldwide each year. Using an overlapping generations (OLG) model with endogenous longevity, we examine how environmental conditions influence the effectiveness of green taxes. A key endogenous mechanism links changes in environmental quality to the economy through health effects, shaping the policy–environment boundaries for dynamics and output maximization. The model predicts that regions with low environmental carrying capacity (ECC) and low green tax rates will experience environmental and economic cycles, leading to intergenerational inequality, and fail to maximize output. These cycles can be avoided, and output maximized, if such regions raise their green tax rates. By contrast, in regions with higher ECC, the green tax rate that maximizes output may not eliminate cycles. Our findings provide insights into two dimensions of compatibility: (1) the alignment between policy stringency and environmental conditions, and (2) the compatibility of policy objectives aimed at eliminating cycles and maximizing output.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107415"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145684379","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Matching for three: The search activities of workers, firms, and employment services 匹配三:工人、企业和就业服务的搜索活动
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107434
Tobias Hartl , Christian Hutter , Enzo Weber
{"title":"Matching for three: The search activities of workers, firms, and employment services","authors":"Tobias Hartl ,&nbsp;Christian Hutter ,&nbsp;Enzo Weber","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107434","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107434","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The standard labour market matching function neglects a substantial variation of hirings. A crucial driver of this latent part is the search intensity of job seekers and firms, as well as the placement intensity of employment agencies. However, there is still a lack of integration of all three search and placement intensities into a unified theoretical framework. Their combined labour market <em>effects</em> have not been estimated so far. We feed all three intensities into the theoretical framework of a labour market matching function to estimate their impact on the job finding rate – effects which are not settled a priori. This could provide important stylised facts for subsequent theory building. For measuring the search and placement intensities, we use big data on online activity obtained from the job exchange of the German Federal Employment Agency and from its internal placement-software. The results show that all three intensities significantly contribute to the variation in job findings beyond vacancies and unemployment. During the COVID-19 crisis, reduced search intensities accounted for 44 percent of lost hirings and 16 percent of the labour market related increase in unemployment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107434"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145789949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sale versus licensing of a cost-reducing innovation by an outside patentholder 外部专利所有人对降低成本的创新的销售与许可
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107422
Manel Antelo , Lluís Bru
{"title":"Sale versus licensing of a cost-reducing innovation by an outside patentholder","authors":"Manel Antelo ,&nbsp;Lluís Bru","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107422","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107422","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate an outside patentholder's choice between selling and licensing a cost-reducing innovation to firms that produce differentiated goods in a Cournot duopoly. Sale implies the transfer of ownership rights, whereas licensing—by the patentholder directly or by any assignee—occurs through an endogenously chosen two-part tariff contract. We find that the patentholder has an incentive to sell the innovation (to a single firm that, in turn, licences it to its competitor) only when the goods are close substitutes and the innovation size is sufficiently minimal. Otherwise, the patentholder prefers to licence the innovation to both firms. Although the transfer of innovation, whether through outright sale or licensing, always improves aggregate welfare compared with the pre-transfer scenario, consumer surplus is reduced when the transfer is made by means of sales. Therefore, a socially optimal public policy should aim at banning the sale of outside innovations or, at least, preventing their subsequent licensing by the assignee from within the industry.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107422"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145789952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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