Economic Modelling最新文献_第8页

Do sanctions deter Greenfield FDI inflows? An empirical investigation 制裁会阻止绿地FDI流入吗？实证调查

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107421

Usman Khalid , Sasidaran Gopalan , Kathia Bahloul Zekkari

{"title":"Do sanctions deter Greenfield FDI inflows? An empirical investigation","authors":"Usman Khalid , Sasidaran Gopalan , Kathia Bahloul Zekkari","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107421","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107421","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Since the end of World War II, sanctions have significantly influenced international relations, particularly by reducing foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in targeted economies. This study empirically examines the influence of sanctions on global Greenfield FDI inflows across a large panel of emerging markets and developing economies. Specifically, we investigate whether sanctions within a country dyad deter Greenfield FDI inflows from the sender to the target. We further assess the magnitude of these effects, explore the variations by sanction type, and examine potential spillover effects on the sanctions-FDI relationship. Our empirical strategy involves assembling a comprehensive dyadic panel dataset covering international sanctions and Greenfield FDI at the bilateral level, encompassing 110 sender and 113 target countries from 2003 to 2019. We find that bilateral sanctions not only reduce Greenfield FDI inflows from the sender to the target country but also generate negative spillover effects, whereby countries outside the sender-target dyad reduce their investments in the sanctioned country. We perform a battery of robustness checks to confirm the validity of our findings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107421"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145737062","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Gender-gap reversal in education and the female labor supply: Evidence from China 教育中的性别差距逆转与女性劳动力供给：来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107424

Steven Zhongwu Li , Fengzhi Lu

{"title":"Gender-gap reversal in education and the female labor supply: Evidence from China","authors":"Steven Zhongwu Li , Fengzhi Lu","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107424","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107424","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates whether female educational advantages—defined as accumulating more educational credits than males—affects female labor force participation (FLFP) in China. Using nationally representative data from the <em>China Family Panel Studies</em> and instrumental variable strategies to address endogeneity, we find that females who surpass their spouses in education are less likely to participate in the labor force. This negative association is stronger among females with traditional gender beliefs, lower education, older age, more children, lower family status, or who live in conservative regions, and weaker among highly educated females, those with highly educated spouses, and in areas with higher FLFP. Mechanism analysis shows that gender display norms, rather than bargaining power or labor market discrimination, primarily drive this pattern. Notably, men with higher education than their wives are more likely to participate in the labor force, underscoring a gender asymmetry. These findings suggest that the reversal of the educational gender gap may unintentionally reinforce traditional roles, and that addressing persistent gender norms is essential to converting educational gains into real progress in gender equality at work and at home.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107424"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145839398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Does corruption trigger political instability? Evidence on the role of demographics and social cohesion 腐败会引发政治不稳定吗？关于人口和社会凝聚力作用的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107456

Nasser Al-Jabri , Shrabani Saha , Neil Campbell , Abbas Ali Gillani

引用次数: 0

Educational mismatch and wages: Evidence from a cross-country comparison 教育不匹配与工资：来自跨国比较的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107448

Hongye Sun

{"title":"Educational mismatch and wages: Evidence from a cross-country comparison","authors":"Hongye Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107448","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107448","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rapid technological change and educational expansion raise fundamental questions about educational mismatch and efficient human capital allocation. This study employs an OECD-administered survey to identify educational mismatch using self-assessment measures and to investigate its wage effects across 20 countries. The results show that overeducated workers earn 14% less than their adequately matched counterparts, whereas undereducated workers earn 10% more. Furthermore, gender-disaggregated analysis reveals that women experience larger penalties for overeducation and smaller premiums for undereducation than men. Propensity score matching estimates indicate substantial cross-country heterogeneity in wage effects, with particularly large penalties in Spain, Korea, and Japan, implying that rigid labor market regulation with limited occupational mobility yield larger penalties, while countries with well-developed vocational systems exhibit smaller effects. This study provides novel comparative evidence on the causal wage effects of educational mismatch and underscores the importance of institution-specific policies linking education quality, labor market flexibility, and lifelong learning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107448"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145839409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Unveiling the role of digital finance in technological catch-up: A multisector growth model with firm-level evidence 揭示数字金融在技术追赶中的作用：一个具有企业层面证据的多部门增长模型

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107437

Hao Xu

引用次数: 0

Local university expansion and firm innovation: Evidence from skilled labor supply shocks and innovation efficiency 地方大学扩张与企业创新：来自熟练劳动力供给冲击与创新效率的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107446

Guang-Zhao Yang , Qinru Si , Liang Liu

{"title":"Local university expansion and firm innovation: Evidence from skilled labor supply shocks and innovation efficiency","authors":"Guang-Zhao Yang , Qinru Si , Liang Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107446","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107446","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines whether expanding the local supply of highly educated labor raises firm innovation. Existing research links higher-education expansion to aggregate human capital and firm performance but provides limited city-level evidence on firm innovation. Exploiting staggered openings of undergraduate universities across Chinese prefecture-level cities during 2008–2022, and combining city data with listed-firm records, we implement a difference-in-differences design. We find that university openings increase local firms’ patent output and improve innovation efficiency, allowing firms to achieve higher innovative outcomes without additional R&D expenditure, while intensified labor market competition reduces labor costs and further supports R&D activity. By contrast, the creation of vocational colleges or elite universities has only modest effects on local firm innovation, consistent with vocational graduates mainly entering non-R&D jobs and with high mobility among graduates of prestigious universities. These results highlight the importance of local skilled-labor availability and graduate retention for strengthening regional innovation capacity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107446"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145789956","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

What drives growth transitions in India? Evidence from a Markov switching analysis of regime dynamics 是什么推动了印度的增长转型？来自制度动力学的马尔可夫转换分析的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107426

Vineeta Sharma

{"title":"What drives growth transitions in India? Evidence from a Markov switching analysis of regime dynamics","authors":"Vineeta Sharma","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107426","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107426","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Growth transitions in India, identified through structural break models, often yield break dates closely aligned with recession periods. Since recessions have been found to be associated with persistent output losses, this underscores the regime dependent nature of output dynamics. This paper examines growth transitions in India as cyclical regime shifts, employing a Markov switching framework to identify three growth regimes - recessionary, moderate, and high growth during 1951–2022. It further examines the influence of domestic, external, and policy variables on regime-specific growth and transition probabilities. Results indicate that investment, productivity gains, and accommodative monetary policy drive growth during moderate regimes. However, rapid credit expansion and rising income inequality undermine high growth sustainability. While investment and monetary easing support recovery from recessions, fiscal policy is effective primarily in high-growth periods and is counterproductive during downturns. Robustness checks confirm the stability of these results across alternative model specifications and sample periods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107426"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145789957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Energy aid, environmental risk, and household health effects 能源援助、环境风险和家庭健康影响

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107388

Yang Liu , Tooraj Jamasb , Kangyin Dong , Rabindra Nepal , Congyu Zhao

{"title":"Energy aid, environmental risk, and household health effects","authors":"Yang Liu , Tooraj Jamasb , Kangyin Dong , Rabindra Nepal , Congyu Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107388","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107388","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the health impacts of energy aid, a topic that has received limited attention compared to its environmental and energy-related effects. Using an unbalanced panel dataset, we identify an inverted U-shaped relationship between energy aid and household health loss, with benefits emerging only after aid exceeds a turning point. The effects differ by aid type, source, and recipient characteristics. Among all categories, only energy policy aid has an inverted U-shaped effect on household health losses. Aid from non-DAC donors (including non-DAC countries, private donors, and multilateral organizations) follows an inverted U-shaped pattern, while aid from DAC countries shows no clear relationship. Furthermore, the impact of energy aid also varies across demographic groups, including age, gender, and income levels. For example, children experience health benefits earlier than adults. We also find a threshold effect of government quality. Only when government quality exceeds the threshold does energy aid reduce health loss. These findings suggest that improving the continuity and equity of aid and strengthening governance in recipient countries are key to enhancing the health impact of energy aid.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107388"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145616200","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Bride price, marriage expectations, and intentions among young male migrants in China: Evidence from manufacturing gig workers 中国年轻男性流动人口的彩礼、婚姻期望和意愿：来自制造业零工的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107443

Minhee Chae , Dandan Zhang

引用次数: 0

Does smart city benefit open innovation? firm-level evidence from China 智慧城市是否有利于开放式创新？来自中国的企业层面的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107453

Huijie Cui , Hongyan Hu , Shangkun Liang

引用次数: 0