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Should economic theories guide the machine learning model in forecasting exchange rate? 经济理论是否应该指导机器学习模型预测汇率？
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-07-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107224
Chien-Hsiu Lin , Tao Liu , Kendro Vincent
{"title":"Should economic theories guide the machine learning model in forecasting exchange rate?","authors":"Chien-Hsiu Lin ,&nbsp;Tao Liu ,&nbsp;Kendro Vincent","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107224","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107224","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates whether integrating economic theory into the machine learning model by imposing monotonic constraints can improve the predictability of exchange rates. The black-box machine learning models have been praised for their predictive power in the empirical literature, leaving the question of the usefulness of economic theory unanswered. Using the tree-based model, we can impose the monotonic constraints implied by the economic theories on the possibly nonlinear relationship between the exchange rates and predictors. The empirical analyses suggest that the constrained models (with theory) often outperform those without constraints (without theory) in terms of statistical accuracy. In an experiment to examine the economic value, the currency portfolios based on these model predictions also deliver better risk-adjusted returns than the commonly used strategies, such as carry trade and momentum. The findings suggest that economic theories should be combined into the tree-based machine learning model for more accurate exchange rate forecasts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107224"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144654135","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Household energy transition, health and fertility in China 中国家庭能源转型、健康与生育
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-07-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107231
Dengke Chen , Qianqian Ma
{"title":"Household energy transition, health and fertility in China","authors":"Dengke Chen ,&nbsp;Qianqian Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107231","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107231","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China has experienced substantial progress in transitioning from traditional solid fuels to cleaner energy for cooking, while the impact of access to clean cooking on individual and household welfare remains underexplored. Drawing on nationally representative data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this paper estimates the causal effects of clean cooking on health and fertility. We provide evidence that access to clean fuel, instrumented by the community adoption of clean energy, significantly improves health. This effect is particularly pronounced among vulnerable populations, such as women, the elderly, and rural children, who are most sensitive to the adverse effects of household air pollution (HAP). Furthermore, we find that clean cooking contributes to higher fertility rates, with this effect intensifying as household income decreases. These results underscore the importance of access to clean energy in mitigating the disparities stemming from energy poverty and serve as valuable investments in human capital for promoting economic growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107231"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144663686","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
China's demand shock in world commodity markets: do resource windfalls lead to economic growth? 中国对世界大宗商品市场的需求冲击：资源带来的意外之财会带来经济增长吗？
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-07-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107229
Yanbai Li, Fenglan Wu
{"title":"China's demand shock in world commodity markets: do resource windfalls lead to economic growth?","authors":"Yanbai Li,&nbsp;Fenglan Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107229","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107229","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates how China's resource demand shock influenced economic growth in developing countries, addressing a gap in the literature on the growth effects of the 2000s commodity boom. While existing studies document China's global trade impact, the consequences of its resource-driven demand surge remain underexplored. Using data from 100 developing countries between 2001 and 2013, we apply a shift-share instrumental variable approach that leverages China's exogenous demand as a source of variation in multilateral resource exports. We find that resource windfalls during this period reduced economic growth by an average of 40 %. Two key transmission mechanisms are identified: exchange rate appreciation and a decline in foreign direct investment. These findings offer new insights into the costs of resource dependence amid global commodity cycles, expand the literature on China's economic rise, and highlight the structural vulnerabilities faced by resource-exporting developing economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107229"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144721920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Coping with labor market risk: Formal job loss and earnings dynamics in India 应对劳动力市场风险：印度的正式失业和收入动态
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-07-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107230
Gunjan Kumari, Neha Gupta, K. Narayanan
{"title":"Coping with labor market risk: Formal job loss and earnings dynamics in India","authors":"Gunjan Kumari,&nbsp;Neha Gupta,&nbsp;K. Narayanan","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107230","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107230","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines earnings dynamics of workers following the loss of formal employment, an area relatively underexplored in the context of developing economies like India. Leveraging high-frequency Consumer Pyramids Household Survey data, we document considerable churn in formal sector employment, disproportionately affecting low-productivity workers. Employing a dynamic difference-in-differences framework, we find that displacement from formal employment leads to a sharp and sustained decline in earnings. Contrary to prevailing evidence, workers displaced during COVID-19 downturn experienced a relatively faster earnings recovery than those displaced in pre-COVID period, highlighting their resilience against shock. Further, we find significant heterogeneity in post-displacement earnings losses, with sharper declines for workers from skill-intensive industries and occupations, and limited variation across education or prior earnings levels. Despite self-insurance efforts, formal job displacement results in substantial household income and welfare losses, highlighting the limitations of informal coping mechanisms and the need for public safety nets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107230"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144671899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Breastfeeding and child development outcomes across early childhood and adolescence: Doubly robust estimation with machine learning 儿童早期和青春期的母乳喂养和儿童发展结果：用机器学习进行双重稳健估计
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-07-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107225
Md Mohsan Khudri , Andrew Hussey
{"title":"Breastfeeding and child development outcomes across early childhood and adolescence: Doubly robust estimation with machine learning","authors":"Md Mohsan Khudri ,&nbsp;Andrew Hussey","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107225","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107225","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We estimate the impact of breastfeeding initiation and duration on a range of cognitive, health, and behavioral outcomes spanning early childhood through adolescence, employing a doubly robust estimation method to mitigate potential bias from misspecification in either the treatment or outcome models while adjusting for selection effects. Novel to the breastfeeding literature, our approach incorporates several supervised machine learning (ML) algorithms to improve propensity score estimates. We demonstrate that the gradient boosting machine algorithm minimizes prediction errors more effectively compared to logit, probit, and other ML algorithms. We find a robust link between having been breastfed and several improved cognitive outcomes during early childhood. In contrast, evidence of effects on non-cognitive outcomes is more limited. Our heterogeneity analyses provide further policy-relevant insights into the differential effects of breastfeeding, showing greater benefits for minorities and girls, and minimal marginal benefits from breastfeeding duration beyond 12 months.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107225"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144679273","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Peer influence and inflation expectations: Evidence from households’ social comparisons 同伴影响与通胀预期：来自家庭社会比较的证据
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-07-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107202
Taniya Ghosh, Abhishek Gorsi
{"title":"Peer influence and inflation expectations: Evidence from households’ social comparisons","authors":"Taniya Ghosh,&nbsp;Abhishek Gorsi","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107202","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107202","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates how personal income changes and social comparisons shape inflation expectations among Indian households, using an ad hoc household survey and data from the Reserve Bank of India’s Consumer Confidence Survey. In line with the literature, we find that a decrease in income leads to higher expectations because of increased financial constraint. But we also find a novel pattern: households whose income increases also report higher inflation expectations. This is attributed to aspirational goals and social comparisons that households indulge in. Households wish to be relatively better off compared to their peers, and the inability to improve their relative position is attributed to external factors such as higher inflation. Our findings reveal a previously overlooked behavioral channel in expectation formation and contribute to understanding heterogeneity in household macroeconomic beliefs. It also highlights how social comparison and inequality can impact inflation levels in the economy through inflation expectations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107202"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144631942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Measuring domination in matching-network configurations 测量匹配网络配置中的支配地位
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-07-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107216
Zhiwei Cui , Yan-An Hwang
{"title":"Measuring domination in matching-network configurations","authors":"Zhiwei Cui ,&nbsp;Yan-An Hwang","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107216","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107216","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A <em>matching-network configuration</em> consists of a directed network with a finite set of nodes, a finite set of agents, and a matching between the set of nodes and the set of agents. The directed network represents the dominance or dependence relationships between entities, and the matching represents agents’ ownership of entities. We introduce four relational power measures for the set of agents, the <span><math><mi>β</mi></math></span>-measure, the <span><math><mrow><mi>s</mi><mi>c</mi><mi>o</mi><mi>r</mi><mi>e</mi></mrow></math></span>-measure, the <span><math><mi>β</mi></math></span>-hybrid-measure, and the <span><math><mrow><mi>s</mi><mi>c</mi><mi>o</mi><mi>r</mi><mi>e</mi></mrow></math></span>-hybrid-measure. When each agent is matched to only one node, and vice versa, the <span><math><mi>β</mi></math></span>- and <span><math><mi>β</mi></math></span>-hybrid-measures are reduced to the <span><math><mi>β</mi></math></span>-measure in the directed network, and the <span><math><mrow><mi>s</mi><mi>c</mi><mi>o</mi><mi>r</mi><mi>e</mi></mrow></math></span>- and <span><math><mrow><mi>s</mi><mi>c</mi><mi>o</mi><mi>r</mi><mi>e</mi></mrow></math></span>-hybrid-measures are reduced to the <span><math><mrow><mi>s</mi><mi>c</mi><mi>o</mi><mi>r</mi><mi>e</mi></mrow></math></span>-measure in the directed network. We show that the four relational power measures can be axiomatically characterized by the same symmetry axiom, the same individual independence (or individual monotonicity) axiom, and four different efficiency axioms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107216"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144571774","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The lasting impact of early-career financial crisis experiences on financial satisfaction 职业生涯早期财务危机经历对财务满意度的持久影响
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-07-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107196
Peiyan Yin , Yonghong Zhou
{"title":"The lasting impact of early-career financial crisis experiences on financial satisfaction","authors":"Peiyan Yin ,&nbsp;Yonghong Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107196","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107196","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of the 2008–2009 subprime crisis on long-term financial satisfaction, addressing the gap in literature on early-career financial shocks and their connection to future financial attitudes. Using data from the seventh wave of the World Values Survey covering the period from 2017 to 2021, we employ a cohort difference-in-differences method to examine how financial shocks experienced during early career years influence long-term financial satisfaction. Our analysis reveals that individuals exposed to the crisis during their early career report higher levels of financial satisfaction over time, highlighting factors such as age, culture, religion, and work attitudes as influential mechanisms. These findings offer new insights into psychological factors as additional drivers of utility beyond consumption and provide implications for incorporating early-life experiences into the basis of welfare analysis in policy-making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107196"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144570173","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Concentration-driven fragility in Indian banking: Evidence from sectoral exposure, earnings volatility, and asset quality 印度银行业集中度驱动的脆弱性：来自行业风险敞口、收益波动性和资产质量的证据
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-07-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107201
Mohammad Zeeshan , Manish K. Singh
{"title":"Concentration-driven fragility in Indian banking: Evidence from sectoral exposure, earnings volatility, and asset quality","authors":"Mohammad Zeeshan ,&nbsp;Manish K. Singh","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107201","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107201","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the relationship between banking sector concentration and individual bank risk in India from 1998 to 2022, using CMIE ProwessIQ data. Using a two-step system GMM estimator to account for reverse causality and persistence in risk metrics, we find that a 1%-point increase in the top five banks’ asset share reduces the z-score by 5.85% and distance-to-default by 1.77%. We identify three key mechanisms linking concentration to higher risk: (i) increased lending to cyclical sectors, (ii) heightened earnings volatility, and (iii) deterioration in asset quality. Additionally, our findings suggest that concentration is negatively associated with franchise value and market <span><math><mi>β</mi></math></span>, suggesting weaker long-term performance and investor confidence. The results provide empirical support for the concentration–fragility hypothesis and offer new evidence on the channels through which structural features of banking markets can shape risk-taking behavior in emerging economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107201"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144597019","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Policy uncertainty and cost stickiness: Evidence from IPO suspensions in China 政策不确定性与成本粘性：来自中国IPO暂停的证据
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-07-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107219
Yanchun Xia , Junqi Dong , Shijun Guo
{"title":"Policy uncertainty and cost stickiness: Evidence from IPO suspensions in China","authors":"Yanchun Xia ,&nbsp;Junqi Dong ,&nbsp;Shijun Guo","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107219","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107219","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of policy uncertainty stemming from initial public offering (IPO) suspensions on the asymmetric behavior of selling, general, and administrative (SG&amp;A) expenses. By analyzing the three latest IPO suspensions in China, we find that IPO suspensions increase the stickiness of SG&amp;A expenses. Furthermore, the amplification of SG&amp;A expense asymmetry due to IPO suspensions is more prominent in companies with higher labor intensity, asset intensity, and sales volatility, and among non-state-owned enterprises. Additional analyses reveal that the correlation between policy uncertainty and cost stickiness diminishes once affected companies complete their IPOs and that IPO suspensions result in poorer post-IPO accounting and stock performance. Finally, we find that different IPO pricing regimes do not affect our baseline findings. Collectively, our results suggest that managers retain slack resources during periods of heightened policy uncertainty in the context of IPO suspensions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 107219"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144605469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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