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Environmental regulation and compensation distribution within enterprises:Evidence from China 环境规制与企业内部薪酬分配：来自中国的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107474
Feiteng Lin , Wenqiang Chen , Chaosu Qian , Meimeng Lv
{"title":"Environmental regulation and compensation distribution within enterprises:Evidence from China","authors":"Feiteng Lin ,&nbsp;Wenqiang Chen ,&nbsp;Chaosu Qian ,&nbsp;Meimeng Lv","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107474","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107474","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Investigating the effects of environmental regulation on income distribution is a crucial extension of assessing the economic impacts of environmental policies. However, the current literature lacks a thorough discussion on how environmental regulation affects income distribution, particularly concerning the pay gap within firms. In this paper, we employ the implementation of China's Key Pollutant-Discharging Units List policy as a quasi-natural experiment to investigate the impact of environmental regulation on the pay gap within firms. Our findings indicate that environmental regulation significantly exacerbates the pay gap within firms, as evidenced by increased management compensation and reduced compensation for ordinary employees. Mechanism analysis suggests that governance pressure and financial pressure are potential pathways through which this effect occurs. Heterogeneity tests reveal that the widening effect of environmental regulation on the pay gap within firms is more pronounced in non-state-controlled enterprises and firms subject to stringent local regulatory enforcement.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 107474"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145940101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Rule-based profit taxation in dynamic Cournot oligopoly: Transmission, stability and welfare 动态古诺寡头垄断中基于规则的利得税：传导、稳定性和福利
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107477
Veronika Nálepová , Marek Lampart
{"title":"Rule-based profit taxation in dynamic Cournot oligopoly: Transmission, stability and welfare","authors":"Veronika Nálepová ,&nbsp;Marek Lampart","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107477","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107477","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study develops a dynamic Cournot model to examine whether profit taxation can stabilise oligopolistic markets hit by demand shocks. The tax rate is updated each period by a simple welfare rule, allowing fiscal policy to respond automatically to changing market conditions. The analysis connects the effectiveness with which taxes influence firms’ decision-making (the transmission strength) to market stability. Simulations and chaos analysis show that when the tax signal is strong, firms adjust smoothly, volatility falls and competition is preserved. In contrast, when transmission is weak, feedback effects magnify shocks, increasing exit risk and market concentration. Moderate shocks are absorbed through temporary tax changes, while stronger demand shocks in the model mainly threaten the high-cost firm. Overall, transparent and predictable profit taxation serves as a practical stabiliser in concentrated industries, limiting volatility without ad hoc measures and providing a scalable framework for future fiscal design.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 107477"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145940105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Stocks, currencies, and geopolitical shocks: Evidence from advanced and emerging markets 股票、货币和地缘政治冲击：来自发达市场和新兴市场的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107454
Georgios Bampinas , Ioannis Karfakis , Theodore Panagiotidis , Georgios Papapanagiotou
{"title":"Stocks, currencies, and geopolitical shocks: Evidence from advanced and emerging markets","authors":"Georgios Bampinas ,&nbsp;Ioannis Karfakis ,&nbsp;Theodore Panagiotidis ,&nbsp;Georgios Papapanagiotou","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107454","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107454","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates how geopolitical risk shapes the relationship between stock and currency markets. We address the limited evidence on their joint dynamics under uncertainty. While prior literature shows that geopolitical risk affects individual financial markets, less is known about its role in the stock–currency interdependence across different economies. Using local Gaussian partial correlations and bootstrap inference for advanced and emerging economies, we analyze nonlinear and asymmetric dependence patterns. Our results show that in advanced economies, stock returns and currency changes are negatively linked, consistent with portfolio balance and flow-oriented theories, whereas emerging markets display positive dependence, reflecting capital flow and risk-based channels. Lead–lag effects reveal that exchange rates dominate in emerging markets, while advanced markets exhibit bidirectional interactions. Under elevated geopolitical risk, dependence strengthens and tail risks become more synchronized, particularly in emerging markets. These findings advance our understanding of cross-market transmission and inform policies on financial stability during geopolitical crises.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 107454"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147397338","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Public investment and real exchange rate dynamics: The role of public capital productivity 公共投资与实际汇率动态：公共资本生产率的作用
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107451
Yazid Dissou , Sicong Ma
{"title":"Public investment and real exchange rate dynamics: The role of public capital productivity","authors":"Yazid Dissou ,&nbsp;Sicong Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107451","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107451","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates how public investment influences real exchange rate dynamics. While most empirical studies find that higher government investment appreciates the real exchange rate, theory often predicts depreciation. We develop an open-economy New Keynesian model with tradable and nontradable sectors, nominal rigidities, and productive public capital to reconcile these findings. Using China as a case study, we show that the productivity of public capital – the extent to which public investment enhances private-sector efficiency – is decisive. Low productivity causes a real appreciation, whereas high productivity leads to depreciation. The model thus explains the mixed empirical evidence on fiscal policy and the exchange rate. The results highlight that the competitiveness impact of public investment depends on how productive it is.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107451"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145839406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The decline of age-friendly jobs in China: Evidence from online job vacancies 中国老年人友好型工作的减少：来自网络职位空缺的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107399
Shuaizhang Feng, Jieyi Liu, Jingliang Lu
{"title":"The decline of age-friendly jobs in China: Evidence from online job vacancies","authors":"Shuaizhang Feng,&nbsp;Jieyi Liu,&nbsp;Jingliang Lu","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107399","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107399","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines job age-friendliness in China's labor market, addressing the limited evidence on how job opportunities adapt to population aging. Using online job postings data from 2018 to 2023, we construct an Age-Friendliness Index (AFI) for occupations by applying natural language processing to measure textual similarity between occupation descriptions and age-friendly definitions. Our analysis reveals a declining trend in occupational age-friendliness, primarily driven by a shrinking share of age-friendly job vacancies. Furthermore, city-level age-friendliness is not correlated with demographic structure but is positively associated with a larger service sector share. These findings document the changing opportunities for older workers and underscore the urgency of promoting age-inclusive labor markets to sustain economic development in an aging society.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107399"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145737064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Strategic income shifting in uncertain times: Insights from economic policy uncertainty 不确定时期的战略收入转移：来自经济政策不确定性的见解
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107420
Pattanaporn Chatjuthamard , Pandej Chintrakarn (Corresponding author.) , Pornsit Jiraporn
{"title":"Strategic income shifting in uncertain times: Insights from economic policy uncertainty","authors":"Pattanaporn Chatjuthamard ,&nbsp;Pandej Chintrakarn (Corresponding author.) ,&nbsp;Pornsit Jiraporn","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107420","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107420","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We explore the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on outbound income shifting by U.S. firms, offering valuable insights into how firms adapt their tax strategies under uncertain economic conditions. Using a unique dataset from De Simone et al. (2019) originally derived from confidential IRS records, we find a significant positive effect of EPU on outbound income shifting. Firms respond to uncertainty by more actively reallocating profits across jurisdictions to mitigate risk. These findings are consistently validated through rigorous methods, including propensity score matching, entropy balancing, and instrumental-variable analysis. We also show that firms with higher tax burdens are more inclined to shift income, while those with significant dividend commitments tend to adopt conservative approaches. Income shifting attributable to EPU is shown to erode firm value and profitability, possibly due to regulatory scrutiny and reputational risks. However, strong governance, particularly independent and gender-diverse boards, helps mitigate income shifting during uncertain times.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107420"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145684381","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
China’s technological rise and its global welfare effects 中国的技术崛起及其全球福利效应
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107407
Hui Li , Wenzhuo Lu , Aoxin Wang , Xiaochen Xie
{"title":"China’s technological rise and its global welfare effects","authors":"Hui Li ,&nbsp;Wenzhuo Lu ,&nbsp;Aoxin Wang ,&nbsp;Xiaochen Xie","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107407","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107407","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how China’s technological progress has evolved since 1979 and its impact on global welfare. Using a multi-country Ricardian trade model and data from the 50 largest economies, we estimate China’s technological trajectory over time. Although China still trails world leaders such as the United States, it has substantially closed the gap with advanced economies. Counterfactual analysis shows that had China’s technology remained at its WTO accession level, global trade gains would be 3.47% lower. Conversely, a 2.5% reduction in trade costs under the Belt and Road Initiative could raise welfare gains from China’s progress by 2.92%. Projections suggest that continued upgrading, together with China’s economic scale, will further shape global trade outcomes. The results highlight both the opportunities and challenges China’s technological trajectory poses for the world economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107407"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145684468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
International spillovers of US monetary policy on inequality 美国货币政策对不平等的国际溢出效应
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107439
Pradyumna Dash , Ankit Kumar , Chetan Subramanian
{"title":"International spillovers of US monetary policy on inequality","authors":"Pradyumna Dash ,&nbsp;Ankit Kumar ,&nbsp;Chetan Subramanian","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107439","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107439","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the effects of U.S. monetary policy on income inequality in open economies from 1970 to 2016. We find that a 100-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate leads to a cumulative reduction of about 0.15% in income inequality over three years. Interestingly, we show that the effect of US monetary policy on inequality varies over time. The impact also varies by exchange rate regime: in flexible regimes, the reduction can reach nearly 0.3%, while in pegged regimes, it diminishes to around 0.13%. This impact in pegged regimes is influenced by wage rigidity and labor market regulations in the economy. To explain these results, we develop a two-agent small open economy model that incorporates rigid wages, highlighting the link between monetary policy and inequality dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107439"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145789948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does auction design facilitate collusion? 拍卖设计是否有利于串通？
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107389
Shao-Chieh Hsueh , Lingzi Liu , Shuoxun Zhang , Jingyi Zhao
{"title":"Does auction design facilitate collusion?","authors":"Shao-Chieh Hsueh ,&nbsp;Lingzi Liu ,&nbsp;Shuoxun Zhang ,&nbsp;Jingyi Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107389","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107389","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how auction design can unintentionally facilitate bidder collusion in the land market. Departing from the dominant view that attributes low land concession revenues to corruption, we highlight how features of auction structure enable bidder-side collusion, suppressing sale prices. Using a dataset of land auctions from 15 Chinese cities (2006–2016), we find that two-stage (listing) auctions are significantly more susceptible to collusion than one-stage formats. Empirical evidence shows that sales concluding at the (secret) reserve price occur disproportionately in two-stage auctions, even after controlling for land and market characteristics. We argue that the transparency and sequencing of two-stage auctions, while designed to enhance fairness, inadvertently reduce monitoring costs and facilitate tacit bidder coordination. Our findings underscore the need to jointly consider auction format and reserve price policy in designing land sales to enhance market efficiency and mitigate collusion risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107389"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145616229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effect of retail chain expansions on local small businesses: The case of Dollar General in Florida 零售连锁扩张对当地小企业的影响：以佛罗里达州达乐公司为例
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107394
Amelia M. Biehl , Amir B. Ferreira Neto , Juan Tomas Sayago Gomez
{"title":"The effect of retail chain expansions on local small businesses: The case of Dollar General in Florida","authors":"Amelia M. Biehl ,&nbsp;Amir B. Ferreira Neto ,&nbsp;Juan Tomas Sayago Gomez","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107394","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107394","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In 2023, the 20,000<sup>th</sup> Dollar General store opened in the United States, as the company, which has locations in 48 states, continued to add more stores. Dollar General is a low-cost retailer that makes shopping convenient by utilizing small stores, rather than following the traditional big box approach. Using the National Establishment Time Series dataset (NETS) for the state of Florida between 1990 and 2019, we use the difference in timing of Dollar General openings to investigate its effect on small businesses nearby. Specifically, we quantify the effects on nearby firm revenue, employment, and likelihood of exit. The unique nature of the NETS data allows us to focus on the impacts of businesses in a narrower setting and identify a treatment group of firms within 0.5-mile radius of a new Dollar General, rather than using pre-defined geographic boundaries. Our results suggest that Dollar General can drive some firms out of business but provide positive spillovers in terms of revenues and employment for the ones that survive. These results are heterogenous across industries and retail subgroups.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 107394"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145571055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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