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Research bubbles
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106888
Hans Gersbach , Evgenij Komarov
{"title":"Research bubbles","authors":"Hans Gersbach ,&nbsp;Evgenij Komarov","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106888","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106888","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We develop a model to rationalize and examine so-called “research bubbles”, i.e. research activities based on overoptimistic beliefs about the impact of this research on the economy. Research bubbles occur when researchers self-select into research activities and the government aggregates the assessment of active researchers on how advances in research may spur innovation and growth. In an overlapping generations framework, we study the occurrence of research bubbles and show that they tend to be welfare-improving. Particular forms can even implement the socially optimal solution. However, research bubbles can collapse, and we discuss institutional devices and the role of debt financing that can ensure the sustainability of such bubbles. Finally, we demonstrate that research bubbles emerge in various extensions of our baseline model.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"143 ","pages":"Article 106888"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143138794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Deviation signs-based bunching methods
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106969
Xiaofeng Lv , Yifan Yang , Yue Lu , Liming Hong
{"title":"Deviation signs-based bunching methods","authors":"Xiaofeng Lv ,&nbsp;Yifan Yang ,&nbsp;Yue Lu ,&nbsp;Liming Hong","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106969","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106969","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Bunching caused by discontinuous policy has received increased research attention over the last decade. In practice, buncher adjustment costs frequently result in bunching in an unknown region rather than at a specific point (e.g., a kink or notch). To investigate this phenomenon, researchers often rely on visual determination or regional knowledge, the selection of estimated regions, the choice of k in k-fold cross-validation, and the assumption of a conditional lognormal distribution. This study introduces deviation sign-based bunching methods for kink and notch settings with frictions, eliminating the need for these prerequisites. Using conservative non-bunching regions and deviation sign-based indicators, we can calculate the data-driven bunching region and counterfactual distribution. Subsequently, the elasticity of taxable income, a key parameter in bunching research, can be estimated. Simulations validate the efficacy of our methods. The elasticity of Chinese small and micro enterprises is calculated to be 1.267.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"143 ","pages":"Article 106969"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143138798","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Heterogeneity in the effect of green financing constraints on labor investment efficiency: A causal forest approach
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106977
Tingwen Liu , Jie Liu , Tzu-Chang Forrest Cheng
{"title":"Heterogeneity in the effect of green financing constraints on labor investment efficiency: A causal forest approach","authors":"Tingwen Liu ,&nbsp;Jie Liu ,&nbsp;Tzu-Chang Forrest Cheng","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106977","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106977","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study evaluates the heterogeneous effects of green credit policy on labor investment efficiency. We analyze Chinese listed firms from 2005 to 2020 using the difference-in-differences method and causal forest approach based on the introduction of the 2012 Green Credit Guidelines. Our results show that this policy improves labor investment efficiency in high-polluting firms by reducing over-investment. Causal forest analyses reveal nonlinear and heterogeneous treatment effects, indicating that firms with lower market capitalization, lower liquidity, and higher leverage experience efficiency declines due to financial constraints. Faced with severe agency problems, state-owned enterprises and firms with high employment variability and abnormal investment achieve significant efficiency gains. Finally, despite lower innovation among high-polluting firms following policy implementation, the increased labor investment efficiency mitigates this impact. Overall, the heterogeneity analysis using causal forests highlights the groups most significantly affected by the policy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"143 ","pages":"Article 106977"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143138807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
LAMP, informality and monetary growth rules in an emerging economy
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106946
Maryam Mirfatah , Vasco J. Gabriel , Paul Levine
{"title":"LAMP, informality and monetary growth rules in an emerging economy","authors":"Maryam Mirfatah ,&nbsp;Vasco J. Gabriel ,&nbsp;Paul Levine","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106946","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106946","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We develop a small open economy model interacting with a rest-of-the-world bloc, containing relevant emerging economies’ features: heterogeneous agents with one household type displaying limited asset markets participation (LAMP), and an informal sector. We show that monetary growth rules are stable regardless of the level of asset market participation, i.e., unlike standard interest rate rules, they avoid the inversion of the Taylor principle. Estimation results using data from Mexico reveal that specifications with money growth rules are empirically superior and shocks are amplified by the presence of LAMP. In contrast, the informal sector acts as a buffer, lowering the variability of aggregate and formal fluctuations through an expenditure switching effect, and by providing a flexible labour market adjustment mechanism.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"143 ","pages":"Article 106946"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143138853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Manager sentiment and its effect on corporate innovation
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106968
Xun Xiong , Long Zhao
{"title":"Manager sentiment and its effect on corporate innovation","authors":"Xun Xiong ,&nbsp;Long Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106968","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106968","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Identifying the factors that predict managers’ commitment to innovation is crucial for understanding firm growth and competitiveness. However, the impact of the textual tone in financial reports on corporate innovation is relatively understudied. This study investigates whether manager sentiment, captured through the textual tone in the Management Discussion and Analysis (MD&amp;A) section of annual financial statements, helps predict firm innovation. Using data from China’s listed firms during 2003–2017, we provide robust evidence that manager sentiment is positively associated with corporate innovation, particularly for firms with low growth, low liquidity, low profitability, high distress, and state-owned enterprises. Our analysis shows that this relationship operates through increased institutional ownership, reduced capital costs, and improved access to external financing. These findings highlight the value of MD&amp;A textual tone as a tool for stakeholders to assess a firm’s future innovation potential and competitiveness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"143 ","pages":"Article 106968"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143138856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Anticipated trade policy: New insights from an intertemporal general equilibrium model for Egypt
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107028
Abeer Elshennawy
{"title":"Anticipated trade policy: New insights from an intertemporal general equilibrium model for Egypt","authors":"Abeer Elshennawy","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107028","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107028","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Utilizing a multisector intertemporal general equilibrium model calibrated to data for Egypt, this study explores the nature of the transitional paths of the economy in response to anticipated and unanticipated trade policy reforms. In general, preannouncement of trade policy is advocated for reducing adjustment costs to trade liberalization. However, this study demonstrates that the preannouncement of a future tariff cut generates welfare losses. Such trade-offs must be considered when designing a trade reform. This study also provides a systematic analysis of the results’ sensitivity to assumptions about the size order of capital stock adjustment costs and the length of the lag between the announcement and implementation of the trade policy reform.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"146 ","pages":"Article 107028"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143421561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Reevaluating the impact of FDI on industrial pollution: New evidence from microdata
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106975
Kaihua Deng , Qizhen Liu
{"title":"Reevaluating the impact of FDI on industrial pollution: New evidence from microdata","authors":"Kaihua Deng ,&nbsp;Qizhen Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106975","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106975","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We revisit the debate on the environmental impact of FDI by leveraging two comprehensive firm-level datasets and address identification issues via an instrumental variable difference-in-differences approach upon China's accession to the World Trade Organization. We examine two under-explored factors in the literature by showing that a higher FDI share in the industrial output significantly decreases firm pollution intensity beyond the effect of productivity gains and stricter environmental regulations. The impact of FDI varies across pollutants, which we relate to policy priorities. Consistent with the technology spillover mechanism, we show that the effect is more pronounced for firms in high-competition industries, exposed to higher local FDI inflows, with higher absorptive capacities, and works through both domestic and foreign-invested firms. The pollution-intensive industries have made more environmental progress. Our findings suggest a more nuanced role of FDI in pollution prevention and offer new insights for policy makers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"143 ","pages":"Article 106975"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143138791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of student's ordinal cognitive ability rank on school violence: Evidence from China
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106967
Liping Chen , Jiada Lin , Zhifeng Wang , Guansheng Wu
{"title":"The impact of student's ordinal cognitive ability rank on school violence: Evidence from China","authors":"Liping Chen ,&nbsp;Jiada Lin ,&nbsp;Zhifeng Wang ,&nbsp;Guansheng Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106967","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106967","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>School violence can exert immediate and enduring effects on the human capital development of students. Despite extensive discussions on the causes of school violence, the role of peer effects has been underexplored in the literature. To fill this gap, this paper examines the effect of cognitive ability rankings on students' propensity for committing school violence. We select schools that randomly assign students to classes to mitigate selection biases and identify the causal effects. Our findings show that improving a student's rank from the lowest to the highest reduces school violence by 0.5 standard deviations. A mechanism is the higher opportunity cost for students with a high cognitive ability rank. We also find that high-ranking students are more likely to stay with high-quality peers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"143 ","pages":"Article 106967"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143138799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Breaking the divide: Can public spending on social infrastructure boost female employment in Italy?
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106974
Jelena Reljic , Francesco Zezza
{"title":"Breaking the divide: Can public spending on social infrastructure boost female employment in Italy?","authors":"Jelena Reljic ,&nbsp;Francesco Zezza","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106974","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106974","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of public spending on social infrastructure — including education, healthcare, childcare and social assistance — on the gender employment gap in Italian regions over the last two decades. Using a Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive (P-SVAR) model, we assess how these investments, while not explicitly targeting women, may plausibly support female employment—potentially by reducing the extent of unpaid care work and by creating jobs in care sectors that predominantly employ women. Our findings show that social infrastructure spending has a positive and long-lasting effect on private investment, GDP and employment across all regions. However, a reduction in the gender employment gap is detected only in Southern Italy and is limited to high-skilled women. These results highlight the need for targeted policies to address regional disparities and promote a more inclusive labour market, particularly in the South, where underinvestment is most severe.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"143 ","pages":"Article 106974"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143138854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Subjective income risk and precautionary saving
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106965
Stefano Castaldo , Mario Tirelli
{"title":"Subjective income risk and precautionary saving","authors":"Stefano Castaldo ,&nbsp;Mario Tirelli","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106965","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106965","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While economists agree that prudent households save to hedge subjective risk in income, they still debate the relevance of precautionary saving. The main problem in estimating this saving motive is the lack of micro data on perceived income risk, preferences, trade opportunities, and its potential bias effects. In the present work we overcome this problem by exploiting a wave of the Italian Survey on Household Income and Wealth that contains unique information on households’: perceived income risk, risk aversion, patience, saving attitudes, liquidity and credit constraints. Results robustly indicate that precautionary saving is significant but low: an average of 4%–6% of households’ total net wealth. Data richness is used to produce a detailed analysis of the omission-variable bias discussed in earlier studies; both highlighting differences in signs and significance. Finally, we extend our analysis to group heterogeneity, with regard to precautionary saving of business owners and senior citizens.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"143 ","pages":"Article 106965"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143138793","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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