发布求助
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献

Economic Modelling最新文献

筛选
英文 中文
Does monetary policy influence euro area fiscal sustainability? 货币政策影响欧元区财政可持续性吗？
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-08-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107273
António Afonso , Francisco Gomes-Pereira
{"title":"Does monetary policy influence euro area fiscal sustainability?","authors":"António Afonso ,&nbsp;Francisco Gomes-Pereira","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107273","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107273","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the impact of monetary policy on fiscal sustainability in the euro area. We extend a standard fiscal reaction function by introducing a monetary policy stance variable as an interaction term, allowing us to assess how monetary policy influenced fiscal dynamics. Our study yields two main findings. First, an expansionary monetary policy stance in response to rising debt-to-GDP levels is associated with lower primary balance changes, potentially supporting fiscal sustainability in the short term. Second, when considering exogenous monetary policy shocks, a monetary tightening significantly deteriorates primary balances, potentially straining fiscal sustainability. These results highlight the importance of monetary-fiscal interactions for fiscal sustainability in the euro area.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107273"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144909049","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fertility and career choices in an overlapping generations model with sandwich caregivers 具有三明治照顾者的重叠代模型中的生育和职业选择
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-08-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107262
Quang-Thanh Tran
{"title":"Fertility and career choices in an overlapping generations model with sandwich caregivers","authors":"Quang-Thanh Tran","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107262","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107262","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how the “sandwich burden” of simultaneously caring for children and elderly parents influences middle-aged adults’ fertility and career choices. A novel mechanism is introduced where declining fertility can intensify the caregiving burden, as individuals have fewer siblings to share responsibility. The dual care duties can affect career choices between regular and non-regular employment, with the latter enabling more time for caregiving duties. Using an overlapping generations framework, the model identifies two possible long-run equilibria: one with full regular employment and another with a mix of regular and non-regular workers. A high training time cost or long unpaid work requirement can push the economy toward the latter equilibrium. Calibrating the model to Japanese data since 1970, I replicate the observed decline in fertility and the regular employment rate. These findings highlight the importance of intergenerational externalities in shaping labor market outcomes and demographic trends.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107262"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144889356","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Climate policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, oil volatility, and global food price volatility: A time-varying analysis 气候政策不确定性、地缘政治风险、石油波动和全球粮食价格波动：时变分析
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-08-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107272
Mohamed Abdelaziz Eissa , Hisham Al Refai , Georgios Chortareas
{"title":"Climate policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, oil volatility, and global food price volatility: A time-varying analysis","authors":"Mohamed Abdelaziz Eissa ,&nbsp;Hisham Al Refai ,&nbsp;Georgios Chortareas","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107272","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107272","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of climate policy uncertainty (CPU), geopolitical risk (GPR), economic policy uncertainty (EPU), and oil volatility (OVX) on global food price volatility (VFPI), addressing gaps in the literature on dynamic and multi-source uncertainty effects. Prior research has explored individual determinants of food price fluctuations, but few studies integrate multiple uncertainty indices in a time-varying framework. Using monthly data from June 2007 to August 2023, we apply a Time-Varying Coefficient Vector Autoregression (TVC-VAR) and Markov Switching VAR (MS-VAR) model to assess how these shocks propagate over time. Our results show that CPU has become an increasingly influential driver of food price volatility, especially post-2015, while GPR and OVX exert strong short-run effects. EPU displays a stabilizing influence, particularly during crises. These findings reveal evolving transmission mechanisms of uncertainty into food markets and highlight the need for adaptive, coordinated policy frameworks to safeguard global food security in an era of rising climate and geopolitical risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107272"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144892125","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does climate risk impact household consumption? Evidence from China 气候风险会影响家庭消费吗？来自中国的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-08-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107270
Jialong Li , Jiao Li
{"title":"Does climate risk impact household consumption? Evidence from China","authors":"Jialong Li ,&nbsp;Jiao Li","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107270","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107270","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change is gradually reshaping consumption patterns, with extreme weather events exerting substantial negative effects. This paper examines the causal connection between household consumption and physical climate risk for a sample of households from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) between 2011 and 2019. The findings reveal that physical climate risks significantly decrease household consumption, which is driven by reductions in household income. We also find that commercial insurance can mitigate the negative impact of physical climate risk on household consumption, and the effects are stronger for households with low education levels, and those in adverse climatic regions and rural areas. These findings offer new insights into consumer behavior amid physical climate risks and provide implications for targeted policies supporting vulnerable groups.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107270"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144909050","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Government procurement and corporate investment: Evidence from China's A-share listed companies 政府采购与企业投资：来自中国a股上市公司的证据
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-08-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107271
Jia Xia, Wei Wei
{"title":"Government procurement and corporate investment: Evidence from China's A-share listed companies","authors":"Jia Xia,&nbsp;Wei Wei","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107271","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107271","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Corporate investment serves as a crucial engine driving economic growth, and government procurement, as an important fiscal policy instrument, warrants in-depth investigation regarding its impact on corporate investment behavior. Based on micro-level data from China's A-share listed companies spanning 2015–2022, this empirical analysis demonstrates that government procurement significantly promotes corporate investment by enhancing supply chain stability and alleviating financing constraints. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that this effect is more pronounced among non-state-owned enterprises, firms without political connections, and enterprises operating in highly competitive markets. Further analysis indicates that while government procurement facilitates corporate physical investment, it also guides firms to reduce financial asset investment and enhances both investment efficiency and market value. These findings provide novel evidence for understanding the micro-level transmission mechanisms of government procurement policies, while offering important theoretical foundations and practical guidance for policymakers in optimizing government procurement system design, strengthening supply chain governance, promoting real economy development, and improving macroeconomic regulatory policy frameworks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107271"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144889357","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Searching for robots 寻找机器人
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-08-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107260
Nikolaos Charalampidis, Justine Guillochon
{"title":"Searching for robots","authors":"Nikolaos Charalampidis,&nbsp;Justine Guillochon","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107260","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107260","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper relaxes the frequently adopted assumption of a frictionless market for robots in favor of a frictional market featuring firms that search for robot inventors with whom they match and bargain the robot price, and sheds light on its consequences in a structural model estimated for the US economy. A frictional robot market renders the diffusion of automation relatively rigid and persistent, with several implications. First, it relatively disconnects the labor market conditions from the robot market conditions and, thereby, weakens the labor displacement effect of automation and the automation threat. Second, it strengthens the present value of vacancies and, thereby, job creation and the volatility of labor market aggregates. Third, it renders aggregate productivity more sluggish. Under such a market, more than half of the fluctuations in the automation probability and the robot price stem from business-cycle forces.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107260"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144880124","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Regime-dependent volatility spillover asymmetry in Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets with forecasting and portfolio inferences 基于预测和投资组合推断的沪港股市制度依赖波动外溢不对称
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107268
Wensheng Lin , Xuewu Wang
{"title":"Regime-dependent volatility spillover asymmetry in Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets with forecasting and portfolio inferences","authors":"Wensheng Lin ,&nbsp;Xuewu Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107268","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107268","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines asymmetric volatility spillovers between Shanghai and Hong Kong equity markets using a novel regime-dependent spillover index within a Markov-switching <em>VAR</em> framework. High-frequency data analysis reveals: (1) Post-2014 Stock Connect amplifies spillovers with pronounced asymmetry, particularly adverse shock dominance during turbulence, establishing Shanghai as the primary negative volatility transmitter; (2) While regime-switching asymmetric models enhance forecasting accuracy, portfolio strategies under conventional <em>BEKK</em> and <em>aBEKK</em> models are constrained by post-Program integration. Our regime-dependent (<em>RD</em>) model significantly improves portfolio efficiency while reducing rebalancing costs. Crucially, by leveraging regimes of realized volatility derived from intraday 5-min data, the <em>RD</em> approach provides policymakers and investors with superior tools for mitigating cross-market risk transmission during financial liberalization. Findings demonstrate that accounting for regime shifts and asymmetry is essential for improvement of volatility forecast and effective risk management in emerging markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107268"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144904444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Investor sentiment spillover from air pollution: Cross-industry influences on stock markets 空气污染带来的投资者情绪溢出：对股市的跨行业影响
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-08-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107265
Xubiao He, Zhengwen Dong, Min Teng, Tingting Yang
{"title":"Investor sentiment spillover from air pollution: Cross-industry influences on stock markets","authors":"Xubiao He,&nbsp;Zhengwen Dong,&nbsp;Min Teng,&nbsp;Tingting Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107265","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107265","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study employs the LASSO machine learning technique for robust causal inference. While air pollution is primarily linked to heavily polluting industries, we identify a pervasive sentiment spillover channel that transmits shocks to seemingly unrelated sectors. This occurs because pollution–induced negative sentiment alters investors’ risk appetite, prompting portfolio adjustments across various industries to express their green preferences. The spillover effects vary among industries due to differing sensitivities to pollution, and the energy sector is particularly impacted. We develop bilateral hedging strategies that incorporate the energy sector alongside other sectors, demonstrating that these strategies can effectively mitigate risks associated with pollution–induced sentiment. This risk mitigation is particularly effective when hedging the energy sector against industries more vulnerable to sentiment. These findings highlight the influence of sentiments related to specific sectors on the broader cross-section of stocks with implications for portfolio management and risk mitigation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107265"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144904445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Market reaction to private Country-by-Country Reporting 市场对私人国别报告的反应
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-08-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107246
Bathusi Gabanatlhong
{"title":"Market reaction to private Country-by-Country Reporting","authors":"Bathusi Gabanatlhong","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107246","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107246","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper provides the first empirical evidence of how stock markets respond to private Country-by-Country Reporting (CbCR), a regulation promoting tax transparency. Using an event study, the analysis focuses on African stock markets in countries that are signatories to the Multilateral Competent Authority Agreement (CbC MCAA). The findings reveal a stock price decline for firms subject to CbCR, particularly those with aggressive tax practices, reflecting investor concerns over reduced profit-shifting opportunities. Cross-listed firms experience positive stock price reactions in foreign markets due to expectations of improved corporate governance. In contrast, non-cross-listed firms face negative reactions in domestic markets, driven by heightened tax enforcement risks. These results emphasise the influence of private tax disclosure on market sentiment and its potential to deter aggressive tax avoidance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107246"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144893857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Beyond awareness: How investor-initiated communications reduce corporate carbon emissions 超越意识：投资者发起的沟通如何减少企业碳排放
IF 4.7 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-08-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107264
Zijun Luo , Mingyang Li , Xueqin Hu , Hao Xu
{"title":"Beyond awareness: How investor-initiated communications reduce corporate carbon emissions","authors":"Zijun Luo ,&nbsp;Mingyang Li ,&nbsp;Xueqin Hu ,&nbsp;Hao Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107264","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107264","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Existing studies have paid much attention to the determinants and consequences of climate risk, yet they lack evidence on actual and certain measures of environmental performance at the firm level. Employing firm-level carbon emissions data from Trucost, this paper finds that investor-initiated communications effectively reduce corporate carbon emissions by emphasizing environmental protection concepts, promoting digital transformation, and fostering green innovation. Different characteristics of investor inquiries, including communication sentiment and environmental-related word frequency, are positively related to carbon emissions reduction. The impact of investor-initiated communications is stronger for firms in heavily polluting industries or cities, and those with stronger corporate governance, better financial conditions, or heightened investor attention. The findings underscore the importance of fostering constructive investor–firm communications to incentivize green practices and accelerate the transition towards a low-carbon economy in China and beyond.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 107264"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144880127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
首页 上一页 下一页 尾页
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整，为了账户安全，请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
相关产品
×
本文献相关产品
联系我们：info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务，方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号：604180095
Book学术官方微信