货币政策影响欧元区财政可持续性吗？

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-08-21 DOI:10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107273

António Afonso , Francisco Gomes-Pereira

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文研究了货币政策对欧元区财政可持续性的影响。我们通过引入货币政策立场变量作为交互项来扩展标准的财政反应函数，使我们能够评估货币政策如何影响财政动态。我们的研究有两个主要发现。首先，为应对债务与gdp之比不断上升而采取的扩张性货币政策立场与较低的基本平衡变化有关，可能在短期内支持财政可持续性。其次，考虑到外源性货币政策冲击，货币紧缩会显著恶化基本收支平衡，可能会影响财政的可持续性。这些结果突出了货币-财政互动对欧元区财政可持续性的重要性。

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Does monetary policy influence euro area fiscal sustainability?

This paper studies the impact of monetary policy on fiscal sustainability in the euro area. We extend a standard fiscal reaction function by introducing a monetary policy stance variable as an interaction term, allowing us to assess how monetary policy influenced fiscal dynamics. Our study yields two main findings. First, an expansionary monetary policy stance in response to rising debt-to-GDP levels is associated with lower primary balance changes, potentially supporting fiscal sustainability in the short term. Second, when considering exogenous monetary policy shocks, a monetary tightening significantly deteriorates primary balances, potentially straining fiscal sustainability. These results highlight the importance of monetary-fiscal interactions for fiscal sustainability in the euro area.

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来源期刊

Economic Modelling ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

8.00

自引率

10.60%

发文量

295

期刊介绍： Economic Modelling fills a major gap in the economics literature, providing a single source of both theoretical and applied papers on economic modelling. The journal prime objective is to provide an international review of the state-of-the-art in economic modelling. Economic Modelling publishes the complete versions of many large-scale models of industrially advanced economies which have been developed for policy analysis. Examples are the Bank of England Model and the US Federal Reserve Board Model which had hitherto been unpublished. As individual models are revised and updated, the journal publishes subsequent papers dealing with these revisions, so keeping its readers as up to date as possible.