IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103476

{"title":"Technological Scanning for Foresight: The case of Metaverse applications for Healthcare","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103476","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103476","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The process of foresight, which allows companies and organizations to build scenarios and inform the creation and sustainment of their competitive advantage, relies on the integration of several steps. Scanning is a crucial step of foresight, as it informs and influences the results of the whole process and, thus, the strategic decision-making of the company. Sources and methods of scanning for foresight analysis can be diverse and lead to different results, although few studies investigate such differences: more specifically, the informative power of academic and non-academic articles and reports has not been assessed yet. This study aims to shed novel light on how the different analysis methods of full reading of records and text mining analysis isolate and gather forces of change differently, based on the source analyzed. The study’s empirical context is the metaverse and its application in healthcare. We find that each source and method by itself is unable to fully gather the whole set of forces of change; however, each source presents some topics that are specific to the target readers of the source, and each methodology presents some advantages as well as some limitations. From the comparison of the results, theoretical and managerial implications are drawn.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724001599/pdfft?md5=3ff487ce4f19d894fc6203afa71d17ea&pid=1-s2.0-S0016328724001599-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142270504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

'Ancestral future': On consumption, ethics and the Anthropocene 祖先的未来"：关于消费、伦理和人类世

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103478

引用次数: 0

Participatory backcasting towards desirable co-produced mobility futures: A case study of MaaS in Greater Manchester 参与式反向预测，实现理想的共同生产移动未来：大曼彻斯特地区 MaaS 案例研究

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103463

{"title":"Participatory backcasting towards desirable co-produced mobility futures: A case study of MaaS in Greater Manchester","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103463","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103463","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) has emerged as a model supported by popular discourse on achieving greener, more efficient and equitable future mobility. While technological change is a primary driver for models of development, the policy pathways, implementation and implications of MaaS are complex and unclear. In this paper, we explore the implications and limitations of a participatory approach to co-produced MaaS futures in Greater Manchester (GM). We adapt a backcasting methodology involving two stakeholder workshops to develop shared future visions and action pathways. Our methodology includes a participatory approach to pluralistic vision development and the use of a Three Horizons method for backcasting. This approach provides the opportunity to explore multiple desirable futures and the formulation of action pathways without negating plausible future possibilities. The research identifies multiple policy and collaborative action areas while also revealing limitations in MaaS user agency and unaddressed sustainability concerns related to wider Smart City criticisms. Findings also suggest a lack of adequate theory within current MaaS frameworks to engage with uncertainty, change and adaptive capacity. Future areas of research include the expansion of current frameworks to incorporate alternative framings from planning and complexity theories already attempting to address these dimensions of futures.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724001460/pdfft?md5=8191e7b7f16c418c82953aaeca773b0d&pid=1-s2.0-S0016328724001460-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142270492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Reparative futures 补偿性未来

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103474

引用次数: 0

What we owe (to) the present: Normative and practical challenges for strong longtermism 我们欠现在的：强有力的长期主义面临的规范和实践挑战

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103471

{"title":"What we owe (to) the present: Normative and practical challenges for strong longtermism","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103471","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103471","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper critically examines the conceptual, normative, and practical challenges to strong longtermism—the view that the far future is the key priority in moral decision-making. The main challenge is that if we take strong longtermism seriously, it follows that harming present and near-future people is permissible, if not obligatory. Given that this conclusion is repugnant to most, we argue that strong longtermism must be substantially weakened. Furthermore, even if strong longtermists bite the bullet on the challenge of what we owe to the present, we raise a set of related concerns that demand attention. Specifically, we argue that it is questionable whether the far future can be a difference-maker in moral decision-making. Even if it could, our inability to predict or understand how the far future will unfold, or what values future generations will hold, severely limits our capacity to account for it. Finally, the implementation of strong longtermism requires a level of progressive moral reasoning that far exceeds our current cognitive and ethical capabilities. While these objections do not necessarily debunk strong longtermism, they seriously challenge its plausibility—as it currently stands.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142357605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

COVID futures: Social imaginaries of post-pandemic lives in Australia COVID 未来：澳大利亚大流行后生活的社会想象

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103470

{"title":"COVID futures: Social imaginaries of post-pandemic lives in Australia","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103470","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103470","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Many expert commentaries predicting what life will be like in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic have been published. The views of the public on post-COVID futures have received less attention. To explore these issues, this article draws on qualitative interviews conducted with Australian adults, conducted in three stages in each of the first pandemic years of 2020, 2021 and 2022. The final questions asked were: ‘What do you think your way of life will be like once the COVID crisis has passed? Will it go back to the way it was before – or be different in important ways?’. This article analyses participants’ responses to these future-facing questions across the three annual interview sets. Continuities and differences in the imaginaries of pandemic futures expressed in each of these years are identified. Findings demonstrate the value of documenting public understandings, practices and feelings concerning imaginaries of the future of crises such as the pandemic across an extended timescale. The study identified the complexity of how quotidian life, emotions and biographical experiences are entangled with broader socioeconomic, policy, infrastructural, cultural and political dimensions in people’s predictions of what a post-COVID world might be like at different stages of the pandemic.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724001538/pdfft?md5=13c00130b8787bf7e5077b0a24edc731&pid=1-s2.0-S0016328724001538-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142162887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Supporting students to become agents of change: Introducing and evaluating the Transition Cycle approach to teaching transformative skills 支持学生成为变革的推动者：介绍和评估转型技能教学的 "过渡周期 "方法

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-09-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103459

{"title":"Supporting students to become agents of change: Introducing and evaluating the Transition Cycle approach to teaching transformative skills","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103459","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103459","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Human societies are dealing with urgent and daunting societal transition challenges, such as those posed by climate change, inequality, pandemics, and digitalization. In all these cases, we know that they must fundamentally change the way they do and think about things, and urgently so, but do not know how. Uncertainty about the direction of change and resistance to change are ubiquitous. Future generations must be equipped with capabilities for dealing with these challenges. However, there is an apparent mismatch between the skills currently taught and the skills needed to address complexity, uncertainty, and resistance. Using relevant existing frameworks and experiences we created and taught a course focusing on fostering these skills. For this purpose we developed the Transition Cycle, an original educational approach in which students work on a societal transition challenge in four distinct but related phases: <em>imagine, connect</em>, <em>act</em>, and <em>assess</em>. In this paper, we introduce and evaluate the Transition Cycle and its underlying concepts, basic components, implementation in the course, and learning outcomes. We conclude by reviewing lessons learned and raising questions for future research and experimentation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724001435/pdfft?md5=eb6d475409ef1a269488b51a5ea9a9f8&pid=1-s2.0-S0016328724001435-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142168174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Engaging futures: Scenario visualisation for sustainable urban food sharing 参与未来：可持续城市食物共享的情景可视化

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103462

{"title":"Engaging futures: Scenario visualisation for sustainable urban food sharing","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103462","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103462","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Future scenarios have become a familiar element of addressing complex problems such as unsustainable food systems, helping to identify alternative policies and practices around food. However, scenarios’ development and deployment in decision making processes tends to elevate and engage specific voices, quantitative data and models, and focuses on techno-scientific innovations and commercial-speculative design interventions. To ensure a just transition to more sustainable food systems it is necessary to bring diverse voices into the development of future scenarios and to consider the efficacy of alternative forms of future scenarios for expanding engagement. This paper presents an approach for more inclusionary approaches, focused on an exploratory case study of urban food sharing using the Three Horizon approach. It makes three central contributions. First, generating empirically-grounded scenarios which centre overlooked marginalised actors. Second, developing novel artistic visualisations of possible futures which incorporate emotional-affective dimensions, and third using these visualisations to engage actors and facilitate dialogue on urban food sustainability transitions. The results of scenario testing with municipal policy shapers in a location where food policy is embryonic are presented and discussed. The paper finds co-developing and visualising scenarios provides an accessible means of engagement and platforming traditionally marginalised voices and perspectives within futuring activities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142241061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The struggle for an alternative future: Anticipatory actions and socio-environmental movements in Alt Empordà (Catalonia) 为另一种未来而奋斗：Alt Empordà（加泰罗尼亚）的预期行动和社会环境运动

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103461

{"title":"The struggle for an alternative future: Anticipatory actions and socio-environmental movements in Alt Empordà (Catalonia)","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103461","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103461","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This article describes the environmental practices and discourses of local actors in the Alt Empordà region in Catalonia and how they contribute to the production of a vision of the environmental future. Based on a political ecology of hope framework, it presents different anticipatory actions and strategies which have created this vision of the environmental future since the 1970s, presenting key historic moments and actions which are central to various strategies which have been elaborated in order to secure access to the land and its resources. For decades, different successful campaigns have nourished a particular outlook, aimed at creating an environmental future which is accessible, attainable, and pragmatic. The article then analyzes how recent environmental changes and the consequences of these changes for the different local environments are significantly changing the actors’ view of the environmental future. Different shades of darker futures are emerging, in which the clear gains from environmental struggles are less tangible. It is hoped that in these futures access to nature will be more inclusive and less oriented towards a modernist and developmentalist approach to the territory. This perspective favours a thriving nature, but does so by rethinking conventional conservation models in order to take into account the changing nature of the environment in a climate change context. It is hoped that the region's demographic structure will enable its inhabitants to maintain, occupy and live on the territory, rather than leaving it to consist of protected areas or tourist areas only, and to build a different relationship with energy and water consumption. Finally, we discuss how these transformations modify local perceptions of the future and may foster an “anticipated solastalgia” as an emerging category of environmental thought.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142241060","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Between continuous presents and disruptive futures: Identifying the ideological backbones of global environmental scenarios 在持续不断的现在与颠覆性的未来之间：确定全球环境设想方案的意识形态基础

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-08-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103460

{"title":"Between continuous presents and disruptive futures: Identifying the ideological backbones of global environmental scenarios","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103460","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103460","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Despite the great relevance of global environmental scenarios for the study of environmental change and sustainability transitions, they have rarely been the object of analysis for scholars of the social sciences. In this article, we analyze the ideological assumptions of 993 global environmental scenarios contained in 243 academic works. By developing a new categorization of environmental scenarios, we investigate the economic and governance organization reflected in the scenarios, as well as the portrayed human-nature relationships. We find that global environmental scenarios developed and used by the scientific community largely reproduce rather than break with dominant power structures in the economic, governance and cultural domain. The majority of scenarios reflects an anthropocentric worldview and assumes that the logic of global capitalism and of the Westphalian state-based governance system will not change radically during the 21st century. The implicit solution of sustainability problems dominating these scenarios is a combination of continuous economic growth, rapid technological progress and an international (environmental) agreement. ‘Alternative scenarios’ are scarce, often only problematize one dimension of the social structure of world society and frequently lack explicit drivers of change or pathways to desirable futures. To increase the diversity of scenarios, future research should focus on refining and quantifying existing post-capitalist, post-state-centric and/or ecocentric scenarios, and on developing a range of scenarios whose storyline systematically problematize or even break with current power structures.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724001423/pdfft?md5=e9444f90a7f77fe06266401264971827&pid=1-s2.0-S0016328724001423-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142087263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

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