IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103481

Danai Liodaki

{"title":"Alternative futures “in the making”: Insights from three makerspaces in peripheral Greece","authors":"Danai Liodaki","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103481","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103481","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The great environmental and social challenges of recent decades have questioned the hegemony of growth-oriented development and its objectives. Those critiques reexamined growth-based policies and strategies, leading to ‘alternative development’ pathways, the most prominent being sustainable development. Nevertheless, critical scholars have problematized those perceptions and practices, repoliticizing the question of development, connecting it with issues of social and environmental justice and supporting ‘alternatives to development’. Building on such perspectives, primarily the degrowth literature, this paper connects alternatives to development to the question of space, analyzing the practices of three makerspaces in peripheral Greece, as potentially alternative economic and political spaces. It explores how an alternative normative framework appears in these spaces; and illuminates practices connected to commons, care, and community as seeds for the emergence of holistically alternative futures. That way the study cherishes sustainability perspectives that problematize social and environmental justice and do not propose only technical solutions, but deep political transformations and normative shifts in the ‘here and now’.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 103481"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142357604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Implementing catchment-wide flood risk management plans: futures and justice conflicts 实施全流域洪水风险管理计划：未来与正义的冲突

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103480

Thomas Thaler , Maria Kaufmann

{"title":"Implementing catchment-wide flood risk management plans: futures and justice conflicts","authors":"Thomas Thaler , Maria Kaufmann","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103480","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103480","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change is projected to heighten flood risk. To adapt to this higher flood risk, catchment-wide flood risk management (FRM) plans have become increasingly popular. These plans aim to implement risk reduction measures (RRMs), usually in rural areas on privately owned land, with the goal of reducing the vulnerability of downstream/urban regions. These interventions can have ramifications for rural/upstream areas as they restrict such areas’ spatial and economic growth. Despite these unequal outcomes of distributive justice, reasons for using the countryside/upstream areas are multifaceted, such as lowering the costs of implementation or attaining further co-benefits. In this paper, we aim to analyse how anticipated futures are used to legitimise the unequal distributive consequences of catchment-wide FRM. We combine insights from future studies involving a future perspective (expected, preferable, and probable futures) and the distributive justice literature to examine the debate on large-scale catchment-wide FRM plans in Austria and the Netherlands. In both countries, the debates remain rather implicit, even though the subsequent decisions can have substantial repercussions for the distribution of burdens and benefits. Whereas in the Netherlands expected futures are contested, in Austria desired justice implications are contested between authorities and locals. On the one hand, futures are harnessed by quanitifying desired futures and by embedding expected futures in decision-making tools. On the other hand, credibility of expected futures is descreased by framing them as more uncertain.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 103480"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142418804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Planning for a future free from rebound effects 规划不受反弹影响的未来

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103479

Andrea Genovese, Benjamin H. Lowe, Meletios Bimpizas-Pinis, V.G. Ram

引用次数: 0

Futures of Outcome‐Based Contracts for industrial equipment: A Disaggregative Delphi study 基于成果的工业设备合同期货：德尔菲分类研究

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-09-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103477

Olli Kuismanen , Hannu Kärkkäinen , Karan Menon

{"title":"Futures of Outcome‐Based Contracts for industrial equipment: A Disaggregative Delphi study","authors":"Olli Kuismanen , Hannu Kärkkäinen , Karan Menon","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103477","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103477","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the dynamic landscape of Outcome-Based Contracts (OBCs) within industrial equipment and investigates how external changes influence OBC feasibility. Employing Disaggregate Delphi involving panels of experts from industry and academia, the research uncovers critical insights of the relationship between OBCs and external changes. The analysis reveals that external changes can significantly impact the feasibility and profitability of OBCs for the supplier. These changes, having direct and indirect impacts, sometimes cascading through chains of events, necessitate proactive management strategies. The study underlines the role of context, in business environment, business model configuration, and product characteristics, in influencing OBC susceptibility to changes. Furthermore, it highlights that parties can inadvertently trigger impacts in response to external change. This research contributes to business model literature by shedding light on the multifaceted impacts of external changes on OBCs. It expands the understanding of how changes can have both positive and negative effects, emphasizing the importance of dynamic business model and contract frameworks. Additionally, the study underscores futures thinking and the significance of proactivity in navigating the evolving landscape of OBCs within industrial equipment OBCs as well as identifies uncertainty as one of the central value propositions of OBCs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 103477"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142319834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Technological Scanning for Foresight: The case of Metaverse applications for Healthcare 前瞻性技术扫描：医疗保健领域的 Metaverse 应用案例

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103476

Francesca Zoccarato, Antonio Ghezzi, Emanuele Lettieri, Giovanni Toletti

{"title":"Technological Scanning for Foresight: The case of Metaverse applications for Healthcare","authors":"Francesca Zoccarato, Antonio Ghezzi, Emanuele Lettieri, Giovanni Toletti","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103476","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103476","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The process of foresight, which allows companies and organizations to build scenarios and inform the creation and sustainment of their competitive advantage, relies on the integration of several steps. Scanning is a crucial step of foresight, as it informs and influences the results of the whole process and, thus, the strategic decision-making of the company. Sources and methods of scanning for foresight analysis can be diverse and lead to different results, although few studies investigate such differences: more specifically, the informative power of academic and non-academic articles and reports has not been assessed yet. This study aims to shed novel light on how the different analysis methods of full reading of records and text mining analysis isolate and gather forces of change differently, based on the source analyzed. The study’s empirical context is the metaverse and its application in healthcare. We find that each source and method by itself is unable to fully gather the whole set of forces of change; however, each source presents some topics that are specific to the target readers of the source, and each methodology presents some advantages as well as some limitations. From the comparison of the results, theoretical and managerial implications are drawn.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 103476"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724001599/pdfft?md5=3ff487ce4f19d894fc6203afa71d17ea&pid=1-s2.0-S0016328724001599-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142270504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

'Ancestral future': On consumption, ethics and the Anthropocene 祖先的未来"：关于消费、伦理和人类世

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103478

Isleide Arruda Fontenelle

{"title":"'Ancestral future': On consumption, ethics and the Anthropocene","authors":"Isleide Arruda Fontenelle","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103478","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103478","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Along with a growing debate around the emergence of a new time on Earth, called the Anthropocene, a critical perspective has emerged in the field of Human and Social Sciences that questions the terms of this nomination, including its temporality, its view of humanity as species, its capitalist impetus and its colonialist position. In this essay, I seek to materialize this critical view by analysing how corporate discourse has promoted \"ethical solutions\" for the Anthropocene, particularly in the sphere of consumption. Taking <em>The Fable of the Bees of</em> Bernard Mandeville as a starting point, I show that in the context of capitalism, consumption is based on the logic of excess and the promise of unlimited satisfaction, which is opposed to what the time of catastrophes demands. In dialogue with a prolific interdisciplinary academic production on another way of understanding the Anthropocene, I argue that it is not possible to think about an ethical consumption in the Anthropocene. I propose a return to the ancestral future of Indigenous peoples as a means to envision another ethics, one in which the critique of consumption does not evolve into an implicit endorsement of it or its future.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 103478"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142270505","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Participatory backcasting towards desirable co-produced mobility futures: A case study of MaaS in Greater Manchester 参与式反向预测，实现理想的共同生产移动未来：大曼彻斯特地区 MaaS 案例研究

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103463

Mahmud Tantoush , Solon Solomou , Ulysses Sengupta , Sigita Zigure

{"title":"Participatory backcasting towards desirable co-produced mobility futures: A case study of MaaS in Greater Manchester","authors":"Mahmud Tantoush , Solon Solomou , Ulysses Sengupta , Sigita Zigure","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103463","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103463","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) has emerged as a model supported by popular discourse on achieving greener, more efficient and equitable future mobility. While technological change is a primary driver for models of development, the policy pathways, implementation and implications of MaaS are complex and unclear. In this paper, we explore the implications and limitations of a participatory approach to co-produced MaaS futures in Greater Manchester (GM). We adapt a backcasting methodology involving two stakeholder workshops to develop shared future visions and action pathways. Our methodology includes a participatory approach to pluralistic vision development and the use of a Three Horizons method for backcasting. This approach provides the opportunity to explore multiple desirable futures and the formulation of action pathways without negating plausible future possibilities. The research identifies multiple policy and collaborative action areas while also revealing limitations in MaaS user agency and unaddressed sustainability concerns related to wider Smart City criticisms. Findings also suggest a lack of adequate theory within current MaaS frameworks to engage with uncertainty, change and adaptive capacity. Future areas of research include the expansion of current frameworks to incorporate alternative framings from planning and complexity theories already attempting to address these dimensions of futures.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 103463"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724001460/pdfft?md5=8191e7b7f16c418c82953aaeca773b0d&pid=1-s2.0-S0016328724001460-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142270492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Reparative futures 补偿性未来

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103474

Kevin Myers , David Nally , Julia Paulson , Arathi Sriprakash

{"title":"Reparative futures","authors":"Kevin Myers , David Nally , Julia Paulson , Arathi Sriprakash","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103474","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103474","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The past is present in all future making activities. However, there is more that futuring processes can do to engage with past-present relationships, namely by bringing to the fore frameworks of reparation and redress. This article explores how ideas of reparative action may offer generative resources for Futures Studies. It suggests that in order to create futures characterised by justice it is essential to listen to and engage with ongoing histories of repression, violence and domination and find ways to talk about the past that support individuals, communities and nations to reimagine and remake social relations that are just and inclusive. The article explores reparative futures as they are negotiated in practice, through the lens of their pedagogical potential and ethical demands, and as world-making political possibilities. In doing so, it highlights the necessity for enhanced dialogue between Future Studies and the ‘reparative turn’ within the humanities and social sciences. We explore the tensions and unresolved questions of reparative futures along with the possibilities for future-making practices characterised by justice, care, creativity and humility for humans and nonhumans.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 103474"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142418802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

What we owe (to) the present: Normative and practical challenges for strong longtermism 我们欠现在的：强有力的长期主义面临的规范和实践挑战

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103471

Björn Lundgren , Karolina Kudlek

{"title":"What we owe (to) the present: Normative and practical challenges for strong longtermism","authors":"Björn Lundgren , Karolina Kudlek","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103471","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103471","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper critically examines the conceptual, normative, and practical challenges to strong longtermism—the view that the far future is the key priority in moral decision-making. The main challenge is that if we take strong longtermism seriously, it follows that harming present and near-future people is permissible, if not obligatory. Given that this conclusion is repugnant to most, we argue that strong longtermism must be substantially weakened. Furthermore, even if strong longtermists bite the bullet on the challenge of what we owe to the present, we raise a set of related concerns that demand attention. Specifically, we argue that it is questionable whether the far future can be a difference-maker in moral decision-making. Even if it could, our inability to predict or understand how the far future will unfold, or what values future generations will hold, severely limits our capacity to account for it. Finally, the implementation of strong longtermism requires a level of progressive moral reasoning that far exceeds our current cognitive and ethical capabilities. While these objections do not necessarily debunk strong longtermism, they seriously challenge its plausibility—as it currently stands.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 103471"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142357605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

COVID futures: Social imaginaries of post-pandemic lives in Australia COVID 未来：澳大利亚大流行后生活的社会想象

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103470

Deborah Lupton

{"title":"COVID futures: Social imaginaries of post-pandemic lives in Australia","authors":"Deborah Lupton","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103470","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103470","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Many expert commentaries predicting what life will be like in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic have been published. The views of the public on post-COVID futures have received less attention. To explore these issues, this article draws on qualitative interviews conducted with Australian adults, conducted in three stages in each of the first pandemic years of 2020, 2021 and 2022. The final questions asked were: ‘What do you think your way of life will be like once the COVID crisis has passed? Will it go back to the way it was before – or be different in important ways?’. This article analyses participants’ responses to these future-facing questions across the three annual interview sets. Continuities and differences in the imaginaries of pandemic futures expressed in each of these years are identified. Findings demonstrate the value of documenting public understandings, practices and feelings concerning imaginaries of the future of crises such as the pandemic across an extended timescale. The study identified the complexity of how quotidian life, emotions and biographical experiences are entangled with broader socioeconomic, policy, infrastructural, cultural and political dimensions in people’s predictions of what a post-COVID world might be like at different stages of the pandemic.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 103470"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724001538/pdfft?md5=13c00130b8787bf7e5077b0a24edc731&pid=1-s2.0-S0016328724001538-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142162887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

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