Futures最新文献

{"title":"The interaction between justice and anticipation: Four mechanisms of reproducing injustice","authors":"Sietske Veenman,&nbsp;Maria Kaufmann","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103674","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103674","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>There is a growing recognition and demand that sustainability transformations should be ‘just’, as visible in European Union policy or the United Nations (UN). Therefore, it is essential to understand and build links between futures and justice discourses. Hence, the aim of this SI is to document empirically and conceptually the way justice discourses and futures bear on societal transformations, putting at its center their interplay. Contributions were invited to investigate the role of future thinking in unpacking sustainability transformations, dealing with questions such as: What is the effect of this interaction of discourses at different levels, like daily practices, procedures, on institutions and/or on policy? How are futures strategically used to legitimize particular justice discourses and vice versa? We identify four underlying mechanisms that help explain how existing injustices are reproduced in societal transformations through the interaction between futures and justice discourses: (1) presentification; (2) utopian dismissal; (3) tangible future bias; and (4) anticipatory justification. By examining the connection in literature and underlying mechanisms, the notion of ‘futures justice’ emerges to be essential to reducing injustices: integrating epistemological perspectives in thinking about futures into the processes of societal transformations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103674"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144861056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Setting the scene for discussing innovation policy directions: Foresight as a practice of synchronizing","authors":"Max Priebe ,&nbsp;Philine Warnke ,&nbsp;K. Matthias Weber","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103681","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103681","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Researchers and policy analysts often highlight the role of anticipatory practices in technology development and innovation governance. In this study, we extend this argument by examining foresight practices within the context of initiating deliberations concerning the directionality of innovation policy. Drawing on practice theories and anticipatory practice research, we develop a conceptual lens to scrutinize foresight. The lens is applied to study the case of a large policy-oriented foresight scheme, Foresight on Demand, which supported the operationalization of Horizon Europe, the Ninth European Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development. This case study provides insight into the workings of anticipatory practices during the nascent stages of innovation policy processes, when problems, solutions and stakeholders' interests have yet to be fully defined. The study describes how foresight mobilizes actors at the intersection between innovation, policy and society through engaging them with anticipatory practices. We conclude that foresight hereby synchronizes disparate bodies of knowledge, collective expectations and temporal demands, thus ‘setting-the-scene’ for arenas in which actors can, in spite of functional differentiation, get together and discuss innovation policy directions. The research findings outline possible implications for function, utilization and evaluation of foresight.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103681"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144861057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Talking about my future city: Engaging young voices through persona-based participation","authors":"Romina Rodela ,&nbsp;Oldouz Nejadi ,&nbsp;Erik Falk","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103680","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103680","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Questions about who is included and excluded from spatial planning are shaping current debates about urban environments, including future-oriented inquiries about whose needs future cities will best serve. The role of children and youth in discussing and shaping urban futures is crucial, as these groups will inhabit the cities currently under development. In this paper, we report on an activity meant to explore novel ways in which young people can be engaged in debates about urban futures. This exploration comes at a time when changes in the Swedish national planning framework have taken place and youth has been recognized as a group in need to be involved in participatory spatial planning. We present findings from an activity where personas - fictional characters - were employed to involve a group of young individuals in discussions and co-creation of developments concerning the future of their living environments in the South of Stockholm. Our results suggest that personas serve as valuable elicitation tools for capturing diverse viewpoints and bridging abstract planning concepts with the lived experiences of young individuals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103680"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144827673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Planning and the unthinkable: Inertia, imagination and climate change along the Upper Adriatic coast","authors":"Ludovico Centis ,&nbsp;Alvise Pagnacco,&nbsp;Federico Vascotto","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103678","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103678","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The paper addresses the study of coastal futures through the combination of scenario planning, cartographic visualization, and real estate valuation. When addressing and reflecting on the territorial impacts of climate change at the global scale, the real estate sector plays an inertial role in different contexts, and in particular in coastal ones most exposed to rising seas, as the Upper Adriatic area between the Gulf of Trieste and the Venice Lagoon. It is becoming increasingly clear that the reflection and possible gradual planning and programming by public bodies of a controlled retreat from these areas in view of the predicted rising seas finds an obstacle not only in the protection of areas and sites of inestimable cultural and naturalistic value, but also of real estate assets. The paper reports the development of a methodological framework that –through the integration of parcel-level real estate data, hydrological risk scenarios, and typologies of spatial vulnerability– could act as reference and trigger for public agencies, planners, or climate adaptation practitioners in programs of awareness-raising or exploratory modelling. Starting from the visualization of the plausible effects of flooding and sea level rise in the coming decades and reflecting on a possible scenario for the Upper Adriatic coastal area in 100 years from now, the paper engages with a potential epochal shift in the way of structuring and inhabiting this territory, considering not only timely issues as climate action and climate justice, but foreseeing a transition that takes into account also a strategic dimension as the economic one.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103678"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144861028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Shaping circular futures: The role of future-making practices in the transition to circular food systems","authors":"Laura Schütz de Rivera ,&nbsp;Hannah H.E. van Zanten ,&nbsp;Anita Frehner ,&nbsp;Adrian Muller ,&nbsp;Olivier Ejderyan ,&nbsp;Vivian Valencia ,&nbsp;Jessica Duncan","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103679","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103679","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Visions of circular food systems have become increasingly central to debates about sustainability, guiding strategies to reduce waste and regenerate resources. Among the at times conflicting visions that diverge in values and priorities, the transition toward circular food systems remains uncertain. We examine how everyday future-making practices reconfigure relations with waste and shape circular transitions in Switzerland. Drawing on Social Practice Theory and the concept of transformativity, we analyze how actors perform practices that reshape how waste is encountered, valued, and integrated into circular material flows in everyday life. Based on qualitative fieldwork conducted in 2023 with four cases from the Swiss food system including fertilizer production from urine, urban aquaponics, food waste redistribution, and biodynamic CSA farming, we show how different practices render alternative waste values tangible and engage people in circular futures-in-the-making through habitual, planned, and experimental modes of practices. In doing so, we highlight the everyday as a key site where contested circularity visions are negotiated, adapted, and implemented.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103679"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144827672","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Editorial: Reflections on post-normal science and ethics","authors":"Tom Børsen ,&nbsp;Gaston Meskens","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103675","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103675","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This special issue on Post-normal Science and Ethics brings together a collection of theoretical and practice-oriented contributions that explore the ethical dimensions of science in post-normal times. Rooted in reflections presented at a virtual symposium in 2020 and a subsequent in-person gathering in Barcelona in 2021, the issue interrogates how ethics underpins post-normal science (PNS), particularly when addressing complex, uncertain, and high-stakes societal challenges. With contributions from senior scholars and emerging voices, the volume offers both foundational perspectives and case-based insights into how extended peer communities, epistemic justice, and the TRUST ethos shape responsible knowledge-making. In addition to theoretical deep dives into ethical aspects and values of PNS, the issue includes applied studies ranging from sustainability workshops to participatory ethics dialogues and educational innovations. Rather than presenting a unified doctrine, these ten papers collectively offer plural reflections on the evolving role of science in governance, advocating for a more inclusive, reflexive, and ethically committed approach to science-policy interfaces. Together, they suggest that ethics is not a peripheral concern but a core element in the pursuit of quality and legitimacy in science for post-normal times.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103675"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144841178","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Principles for building a culture of organizational foresight","authors":"Jason Jabbour ,&nbsp;Nicolas A. Balcom Raleigh ,&nbsp;Anne-Sophie Stevance ,&nbsp;James Waddell ,&nbsp;Andrea Hinwood","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103673","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103673","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>There is growing interest in developing foresight cultures within international organizations. This reflection on the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) approach focuses on a critical 18-month chapter of an ongoing initiative called the Foresight Trajectory. It begins with the premise that organizations are complex adaptive systems, foresight is driven by its potential value, and anticipation is a social phenomenon. The paper proposes principles for cultivating a culture of organizational foresight based on a methodological reflection of the UNEP Foresight Trajectory. This process applied three sets of Reflection Questions across six project phases, generating key insights that inform principles for cultivating foresight within the organization. The questions addressed contexts, relevance perceptions, and modes of anticipation. Three main insights emerged: the foresight process was dynamic and adaptive; the process itself was meaningful to stakeholders as a driver of foresight culture formation; and UNEP, along with other international entities, is uniquely positioned to convene multi-perspective and global foresight processes. Based on these insights, seven Foresight Principles are proposed to guide UNEP and other international entities in engaging stakeholders in foresight to explore new ideas, prepare for uncertainty, build a foresight community, stay flexible and reflexive, communicate openly while respecting stakeholder needs, and foster diverse perspectives to spark immediate thinking and action. This reflection aims to contribute to the development of a foresight culture at UNEP and offer useful insights for other UN entities and beyond.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103673"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145020920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Futures of Deepfake and society: Myths, metaphors, and future implications for a trustworthy digital future","authors":"Abdul Wahab","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103672","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103672","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The revolutionizing journey of technology has traveled so far from simple Artificial intelligence to advanced Machine learning using deep learning algorithms. These algorithms generate high-level realistic content, either audio or video, that is indistinguishable from human cognition, known as Deepfake. Deepfake technology jeopardized the quality of information and trust in society. Therefore, this study aims to explore and uncover the hidden myths, metaphors, worldviews, and societal systematic causes of deepfake technology and identify the potential risk reduction strategies from a strategic foresight perspective using Causal Layered Analysis (CLA). This was achieved by the qualitative review of statistical data conducted at the mass level and case studies related to the current and future implications of deepfake across various societal domains. Our findings reveal that Deepfake technology erodes trust in digital media, causing suicides due to psychological distress while presenting risks and opportunities. Based on CLA outcomes, future recommendations are formulated to minimize deepfake creation and the victimization process. Also, increased awareness, regulation, and education are essential to mitigate its negative impacts and harness its benefits. However, the technology also presents opportunities for positive applications in education and entertainment. The results underscore the need for enhanced media literacy and regulatory frameworks to address the challenges posed by deepfakes while harnessing their potential benefits. Potential Future research should focus on developing effective detection methods and public awareness campaigns.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103672"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144748587","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A systematic literature review furthering the participatory futures and governance debate to capacities","authors":"Sai Varsha Akavarapu","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103670","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103670","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Over the past two decades, participatory futures practices have become integral to urban futures studies. While the design, method, and approach of participatory futures processes have been gaining traction, there is a growing recognition that the success of such initiatives hinges on the capacities of local organizations and actors responsible for designing, driving, and governing these discourses. Positioned at the intersection of capacities, participation, and futures governance, this study explores three key questions: How are the capacities required to guide participatory futures conceptualized in the urban context? and what are they? How are the capacities intertwined with the governance of participatory futures? and moreover, whose capacities exert the most significant influence in shaping participatory futures practices? Through a systematic literature review of 43 studies, this research identified four distinct perspectives that further the participatory futures and governance debate to capacities: (1) <em><strong>the institutionalist perspective</strong></em> emphasizes the prescriptive role of structures in facilitating participatory futuring; (2) <em><strong>the organizational perspective</strong></em> highlights the role of system dynamics and participatory cultures within organizations as determinants of effective participatory futuring; (3) <em><strong>the transformative perspective</strong></em> centers on individual actors actions, specifically on their capacity to break away from unsustainable practices in shaping transformative participatory futures; (4) <em><strong>the participatory futures practice-oriented</strong></em> perspective focuses on methods, vision, duration and citizen input integration in participatory futures processes, emphasizing upon reflexivity in methodological aspects of these exercises. Findings reveal that while existing research increasingly prioritizes innovation in participatory methods and approaches, a critical gap remains in examining the capacities that enable immersive and transformative participatory futures processes. A capacity-driven approach to participatory futures practices focused on deliberative citizen empowerment is the need of the hour to advance the co-production of sustainable futures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103670"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144739522","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Existential silos: The compartmentalization of the futures of environmental change and the nuclear threat","authors":"Sterre van Buuren ,&nbsp;Thomas Fraise ,&nbsp;Benoît Pelopidas","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103671","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103671","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Nuclear weapons and environmental change are two existential threats to humanity. This article shows that current policy and academic discourse neglects their possible future interactions and proposes a research agenda to undo this compartmentalization. Based on a comprehensive review of policy documents and scholarship on nuclear and environmental security futures between 1990 and 2024, this article documents the compartmentalization of these threats. It shows that prevalent security imaginaries do not account for interactions and instead treat environmental change and nuclear weapons as different types of security threat. This creates a number of epistemic and material vulnerabilities which must be addressed by scholarship. The article lays out avenues to map out material and political interactions between the two threats. It urges policymakers and scholars to integrate imaginations of the implications of these and other existential threats for the future of humanity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103671"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144723648","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}