IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103486

{"title":"Relational visioning and the emerging future: Transforming towards a sustainable local society","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103486","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103486","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Earth is currently facing unprecedented anthropogenic impacts. In this context of widespread environmental degradation and climate anxiety, there is an urgent need to reimagine our approaches to sustainability. This paper explores how a relational framing of sustainability can be applied to visioning exercises to foster transformative actions in local governance. While relational approaches are increasingly recognized as important to spark transformative change, their benefits and practical applicability to visioning are still under-explored. Drawing on findings from a multi-stakeholder workshop in a Norwegian municipality, we make two main contributions to the existing literature. First, we demonstrate how a relational visioning process can be carried out, identifying three key elements for establishing a relational foundation that can catalyse effective sustainability transformations: 1) the act of listening deeply, 2) integrating values, and 3) defining direction. Second, we contribute with new insights concerning the benefits and practical application in local sustainability governance contexts, highlighting the need for facilitating incremental (yet radical) changes in existing governance frameworks that are sensitive to available bureaucratic resources.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142535563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Sociotechnical transitions in the system for providing beef to human food: Scenarios for cultured meat 为人类食品提供牛肉的系统中的社会技术转型：养殖肉类的前景

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103488

{"title":"Sociotechnical transitions in the system for providing beef to human food: Scenarios for cultured meat","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103488","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103488","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The objective of this work was to investigate the possible scenarios of sociotechnical transitions for cultured meat, considering a time horizon of ten years. We employ methodological procedures from the <em>La Prospective</em> School of scenario planning. Through the structural analysis, we identified ten key variables concerning the sociotechnical system of cultured meat, oriented according to the five sociotechnical regimes: technological, scientific, political, socio-cultural, and user and market. Subsequently, based on each key variable, we propose possible key events. The results present plausible scenarios for the next ten years (2022–2032). Using the key events identified based on theoretical contributions of sociotechnical transitions, we propose dynamics and transition paths for the sociotechnical system of supplying cultured meat. Thus, elements inherent to the exogenous landscape, the characteristics of the sociotechnical regimes, and the peculiarities of the aforementioned innovation developed at the technological niche level are highlighted. The findings do not neglect any possibility or transition path, but point to a greater inclination towards the path of transformation and reconfiguration to the detriment of de-alignment and realignment, and technological replacement. Thus, our contributions provide insights and reflections on the plausible paths of these modifications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142553718","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

World Futures Day 2023 Global futures agenda by The Millennium Project 千年项目制定的 2023 年世界未来日全球未来议程

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103485

{"title":"World Futures Day 2023 Global futures agenda by The Millennium Project","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103485","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103485","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>World Futures Day (WFD), the 24 h round-the-world participatory method hosted every year by The Millennium Project and others on March 1, stimulates conversations and collective intelligence on possible futures. The 2023 edition marked its tenth anniversary. The 2023 Global futures agenda coming out from the data analysis is composed of four main clusters, each listing future oriented topics and related contents. Cluster 1, Complex solutions for complex problems, includes topics such as Environmental regeneration, Predictable food systems, Energy transition, Homo Galaxia, and Synergetic relations for peace. Cluster 2, A hyper-technological humanity, includes topics such as A biological revolution, New definitions of truth, An emotional AGI, A conscious AGI, and AGI governance. Cluster 3, Education and learning for a better future, includes topics such as Intelligent agent teachers, Intergenerational storytelling, and A cultural shift to self-actualization. Cluster 4, Improving global foresight, includes topics such as Futurists as a contradiction, A new leadership agenda, Futures shapers, The power of stories, Judging trillions of scenarios, Committees and summits for the future. After discussing some changes in the contents addressed over the years and some potential next steps for the research on WFD, the conclusions report that one key takeaway from WFD 2023 is that we have a vital need for pragmatic hope.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142535445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A meta-network analysis of methodological specifications for system dynamics modelling application in agricultural food systems 农业粮食系统中应用系统动力学建模的方法规范元网络分析

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103484

{"title":"A meta-network analysis of methodological specifications for system dynamics modelling application in agricultural food systems","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103484","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103484","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper aims to review existing applications of system dynamics modelling in agricultural food systems and draw insights from the various modelling procedures in order to highlight best-practice guidelines on methodological specifications for SD modelling. A meta-network analysis was used to identify existing studies that have applied SD modelling in agriculture. Using an algorithm that automatically clusters closely connected research articles based on Boolean search strings that look at the title, keywords, abstract, and digital object identifier (DOI) of the journal articles, 354 journal articles were selected for in-depth content analysis.</div><div>Based on the synthesised trends, two criteria for determining the type of modelling process and model type to apply for the model conceptualisation step are: (<em>i</em>) the immediate end goal of the modelling process, and (<em>ii</em>) data availability. Participatory modelling is appropriate when there is limited data and model outputs will inform the implementation of interventions by stakeholders. For action research focusing on well-researched food systems with substantial data available, the semi-participatory modelling process can be adopted, and quantitative SD models can be solitarily used. A key contribution of this paper is the proposed procedure for emergent participatory scenario development within the system dynamics modelling process.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142446260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Exploring intercultural perspectives of migration futures in a super-diverse city through intercultural participatory futures workshops: The case of Istanbul 通过跨文化参与式未来研讨会，探索一个超级多元化城市移民未来的跨文化视角：伊斯坦布尔案例

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103482

{"title":"Exploring intercultural perspectives of migration futures in a super-diverse city through intercultural participatory futures workshops: The case of Istanbul","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103482","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103482","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Most migration futures studies focus on <em>reacting</em> to migration issues such as flows and crises rather than exploring alternative images of futures centered on individual’s migration experiences. Addressing the limitations of existing practices criticized for their short-term, problem-oriented, and predominantly western, male-dominated, and colonized perspectives, this article presents intercultural participatory futures workshops as a novel technique for exploring more inclusive and intercultural migration futures. This approach enabled participants to collaboratively envision, build, and discuss alternative futures of migration for Istanbul in 2050 in eight workshop sessions with 35 intercultural participants. Additionally, it fostered a space to share experiences, and thoughts on futures, while meaningfully interacting with one another. Therefore, the contribution of this article to the migration futures field is two-fold: first, it showcases the potential of intercultural participatory futures workshops for exploring and constructing inclusive and participatory visions of migration futures, while contrasting collective visions and individual concerns; and second, it explains the relevance of this approach as a unique opportunity to foster intercultural meaningful social interactions, a key kind of interaction for social inclusion between individuals with migration backgrounds and host society.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142441786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Navigating the transition: Unraveling the EU's different imaginaries for a just future 过渡时期的导航：解读欧盟对公正未来的不同想象

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103483

{"title":"Navigating the transition: Unraveling the EU's different imaginaries for a just future","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103483","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103483","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The European Union has translated the imperative of Just Transition into a comprehensive mix of instruments. In this way, the EU formulates its future visions of a just and sustainable European society. However, researchers have not yet examined the mix of instruments as an object of “making of futures”. To understand these future visions and the practical implications for the implementation of the instrument mix, our paper draws on the concept of imaginaries. Through a typological content analysis of the instruments, we reveal that the instruments are rooted in two distinct imaginaries. The Impact Mitigation Imaginary conservatively seeks to mitigate the negative impacts of transition on the socio-economic status quo. The Social Justice Imaginary, by contrast, progressively aims for a more equitable society during the transition. Considering also the implementation aspects of the instruments, we show that the instrument mix is inconsistent and only partially credible. We conclude that the implementation of the mix shifts the negotiation between progressive and conservative visions of a just and sustainable future to the national level with its own (power) interests. In this process, several implementation challenges may arise.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142535562","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Alternative futures “in the making”: Insights from three makerspaces in peripheral Greece 正在创造 "的另一种未来：希腊周边地区三个创客空间的启示

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103481

{"title":"Alternative futures “in the making”: Insights from three makerspaces in peripheral Greece","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103481","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103481","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The great environmental and social challenges of recent decades have questioned the hegemony of growth-oriented development and its objectives. Those critiques reexamined growth-based policies and strategies, leading to ‘alternative development’ pathways, the most prominent being sustainable development. Nevertheless, critical scholars have problematized those perceptions and practices, repoliticizing the question of development, connecting it with issues of social and environmental justice and supporting ‘alternatives to development’. Building on such perspectives, primarily the degrowth literature, this paper connects alternatives to development to the question of space, analyzing the practices of three makerspaces in peripheral Greece, as potentially alternative economic and political spaces. It explores how an alternative normative framework appears in these spaces; and illuminates practices connected to commons, care, and community as seeds for the emergence of holistically alternative futures. That way the study cherishes sustainability perspectives that problematize social and environmental justice and do not propose only technical solutions, but deep political transformations and normative shifts in the ‘here and now’.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142357604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Implementing catchment-wide flood risk management plans: futures and justice conflicts 实施全流域洪水风险管理计划：未来与正义的冲突

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103480

{"title":"Implementing catchment-wide flood risk management plans: futures and justice conflicts","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103480","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103480","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change is projected to heighten flood risk. To adapt to this higher flood risk, catchment-wide flood risk management (FRM) plans have become increasingly popular. These plans aim to implement risk reduction measures (RRMs), usually in rural areas on privately owned land, with the goal of reducing the vulnerability of downstream/urban regions. These interventions can have ramifications for rural/upstream areas as they restrict such areas’ spatial and economic growth. Despite these unequal outcomes of distributive justice, reasons for using the countryside/upstream areas are multifaceted, such as lowering the costs of implementation or attaining further co-benefits. In this paper, we aim to analyse how anticipated futures are used to legitimise the unequal distributive consequences of catchment-wide FRM. We combine insights from future studies involving a future perspective (expected, preferable, and probable futures) and the distributive justice literature to examine the debate on large-scale catchment-wide FRM plans in Austria and the Netherlands. In both countries, the debates remain rather implicit, even though the subsequent decisions can have substantial repercussions for the distribution of burdens and benefits. Whereas in the Netherlands expected futures are contested, in Austria desired justice implications are contested between authorities and locals. On the one hand, futures are harnessed by quanitifying desired futures and by embedding expected futures in decision-making tools. On the other hand, credibility of expected futures is descreased by framing them as more uncertain.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142418804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Planning for a future free from rebound effects 规划不受反弹影响的未来

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103479

引用次数: 0

Futures of Outcome‐Based Contracts for industrial equipment: A Disaggregative Delphi study 基于成果的工业设备合同期货：德尔菲分类研究

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-09-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103477

{"title":"Futures of Outcome‐Based Contracts for industrial equipment: A Disaggregative Delphi study","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103477","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103477","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the dynamic landscape of Outcome-Based Contracts (OBCs) within industrial equipment and investigates how external changes influence OBC feasibility. Employing Disaggregate Delphi involving panels of experts from industry and academia, the research uncovers critical insights of the relationship between OBCs and external changes. The analysis reveals that external changes can significantly impact the feasibility and profitability of OBCs for the supplier. These changes, having direct and indirect impacts, sometimes cascading through chains of events, necessitate proactive management strategies. The study underlines the role of context, in business environment, business model configuration, and product characteristics, in influencing OBC susceptibility to changes. Furthermore, it highlights that parties can inadvertently trigger impacts in response to external change. This research contributes to business model literature by shedding light on the multifaceted impacts of external changes on OBCs. It expands the understanding of how changes can have both positive and negative effects, emphasizing the importance of dynamic business model and contract frameworks. Additionally, the study underscores futures thinking and the significance of proactivity in navigating the evolving landscape of OBCs within industrial equipment OBCs as well as identifies uncertainty as one of the central value propositions of OBCs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142319834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

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