Futures最新文献

{"title":"Towards a better understanding of growth corridors in Africa: A scientometric approach","authors":"George T. Mudimu,&nbsp;Michael Brüntrup,&nbsp;Anna-Katharina Hornidge","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103572","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103572","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The study of corridors has substantially increased in the past decade. Concomitant with this increase, these corridors have been labeled growth corridors, agricultural corridors, economic development corridors, spatial development corridors and, spatial development initiatives, among other terms. This meteoric rise of corridors warrants an in-depth study of their emergence and evidential foundations. To achieve this task, the present paper focuses on unraveling more knowledge of our understanding of corridors. Resultantly, the study focuses on how corridors have evolved, what we know about corridors in Africa, how we know about them, and what blind spots the present knowledge of corridors obscures. The scientometric and content analysis approaches, evidence reveals numerous dynamics about the conceptualization, life cycle, operations, knowledge sharing, and generation of knowledge on growth corridors in Africa. For instance, findings reveal that authors have in the past decade prioritized themes like the ecological dimensions of corridors. In addition, there are asymmetries in knowledge on corridors in Africa. Furthermore, despite rigorous policy support for growth corridors, African governments’ funding of scientific research on corridors is nonexistent.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"169 ","pages":"Article 103572"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143610196","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating the growth potential of digital business weak signals through the lens of entrepreneurs","authors":"Levan Bzhalava ,&nbsp;Jari Kaivo-oja ,&nbsp;Mari Avarmaa ,&nbsp;Sohaib S. Hassan","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103582","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103582","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Previous studies develop data mining methods for identifying weak signals of technological and business changes, but there remains a research gap in understanding how to track the evolution of digital business weak signals over time and evaluate their potential development into strong signals or remaining weak signals. To address this research gap, we analyze the technology and business profiles of digital entrepreneurial ventures from 2011 to 2022, using data extracted from CrunchBase. We employ a 6-year window and a keyword-based text mining approach to classify digital business weak and strong signals across two distinct time periods. Using logistic regression analysis, we examine factors, such as entrepreneurship intensity and venture capital funding, that may be related to the development of weak signals into strong trends. We also apply Word2vec to assess and rank the applications of digital business weak signals based on their significance and potential. Additionally, we use term frequency-inverse document frequency (TF-IDF) to measure the relevance and importance of digital business weak signals over time. Our study identifies several weak signal areas that entrepreneurs perceive as having high growth potential, including Web3, quantum computing, space travel and satellite communication, and the valorization of forestry and natural resources. Among these, Web3 has gained significant importance and relevance in digital business contexts over the past few years.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"168 ","pages":"Article 103582"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143562783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"What scenario-building characteristics should be used in GenAI prompting?","authors":"Tuomo Kuosa,&nbsp;Eljas Aalto","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103571","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103571","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article discusses the prompting process when using GenAI, especially large language models (LLM) in scenario building. It revolves around the d<strong>i</strong>fferent types of scenarios and their characteristics, between AI<strong>-</strong>generated scenarios and AI-assisted scenarios, e.g. in Expert knowledge modelling and in Econometrics, and the necessity to have a structured multistep prompting procedure in case one wants to get good quality, well-targeted scenarios. These steps naturally depend on the chosen methodology and the outcome that is sought, yet there are some principles that help set up good prompting. One of these principles is choosing the right scenario-building characteristics and the correct order of these when prompting. For this purpose, this article provides a three-step typology for specifying the scenario types.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"169 ","pages":"Article 103571"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143619471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Gender-responsive disaster risk reduction strategy at the community level: A qualitative approach to analyze coastal communities in Bangladesh","authors":"Ashma Zaman Shume ,&nbsp;Md. Zakir Hossain ,&nbsp;Md. Tariqul Islam ,&nbsp;Md. Abu Jobaer ,&nbsp;Salman F. Haque ,&nbsp;Khan Rubayet Rahaman","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103570","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103570","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Gender inequality not only represents a substantial infringement of women’s human rights but also impedes sustainable development. Women frequently experience significant disparities in power and control over resources compared to men, rendering them more vulnerable to the detrimental consequences of climate-related hazards and environmental emergencies. To effectively tackle disaster risk reduction (DRR), it is essential to comprehensively understand and address the influence of gender dynamics on the experiences of both women and men. Thus, this article investigates gender responsiveness in DRR by exploring three key areas: factors contributing to women’s vulnerability to climate-related hazards, the integration of gender considerations in community-based DRR initiatives, and the effectiveness of community-level DRR activities in fostering gender responsiveness. It employs evidence-based inductive reasoning and a case study approach to collect and analyse data, using participatory methods such as interviews, focus group discussions (FGDs), and key informant interviews. Qualitative data was analysed using a systematic approach involving the development of codes, categories, and themes. Findings reveal mixed results in gender responsiveness. While major stakeholders, including the government, NGOs, and donors, have initiated programmes to address vulnerabilities, the integration of gender considerations remains inconsistent. Union Disaster Management Committees (UDMCs) were formed to enhance pre-disaster activities, but women’s leadership within these committees is underutilised. However, NGOs have involved women in preparedness, recovery, and relief efforts, with women of various ages and marital statuses participating in these programs. While their involvement has improved their coping strategies, it has also increased their workloads and pressures. Women often struggle to participate fully due to family responsibilities and discomfort in male-dominated settings. This contextual reality underscores the need for more inclusive and effective disaster risk reduction strategies that better utilise gender-responsive tools for future community development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"168 ","pages":"Article 103570"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143562776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring futures for the science of global risk","authors":"SJ Beard ,&nbsp;Nathaniel Cooke ,&nbsp;Sarah Dryhurst ,&nbsp;Mike Cassidy ,&nbsp;Goodwin Gibbins ,&nbsp;Georgiana Gilgallon ,&nbsp;Ben Holt ,&nbsp;Ida Josefiina ,&nbsp;Luke Kemp ,&nbsp;Aaron Tang ,&nbsp;Julius Weitzdörfer ,&nbsp;Paul Ingram ,&nbsp;Lalitha Sundaram ,&nbsp;Rick Davies","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103569","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103569","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent years have seen the emergence of a dedicated community working to understand and mitigate the risk of global disasters (global risk). This community faces an uncertain future with key challenges emerging from the diversification of perspectives and theories of change within it and the growing frequency and intensity of global crises. This paper presents a collaborative exercise exploring divergent futures for the field using a participatory narrative futures method, ParEvo. It considered near-term possibilities for global risk and how this community might respond to it. We begin by setting out the nature of the global risk community and the background to this exercise. Next, we present the method used, the participants involved, how they collaboratively constructed narrative futures, and the evaluation and textual analysis by which these were interpreted. We briefly present key results, including summaries of the completed narratives and their evaluation by participants and focused analysis of three core themes: conflict and rapprochement, agents of change, and outcomes and impacts. Finally, we discuss the exercise’s limitations and challenges and present lessons for both the application of ParEvo and similar futures tools (including using participatory exercise design and improved evaluation of contributions) and the global risk community (including the need for conflict resolution, planning for how researchers interact with actual global risk, and reflection on what the community aims to achieve). Full results from the exercise are presented in <span><span>supplementary material</span></span> and all the contributions made by participants can be found at <span><span>https://parevo.org/exercise/exploring-futures-for-a-science-of-global-risk</span><svg><path></path></svg></span>.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"168 ","pages":"Article 103569"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143562775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A game for future change management and sense-making: New Path- New Image (N. PI)","authors":"Reza Dehnavieh ,&nbsp;Farzaneh Yousefi ,&nbsp;John A. Sweeney ,&nbsp;AliAkbar Haghdoost ,&nbsp;Atousa Poursheikhali ,&nbsp;Parisa Dehghanian","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103562","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103562","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Effective change management relies heavily on stakeholder engagement and the creation of a shared vision for the future. The “New Path- New Image” (N. PI) game is an innovative gamification approach designed to address this need by facilitating sense-making and collaborative foresight. The game enables stakeholders to visualize and compare two perspectives: the Desirable Future (DF) and the Desirable Post-Change Future (DPCF), fostering alignment and readiness for change. Through three dimensions—generating ideas, internalizing knowledge, and experiencing the future—the game creates an interactive platform for dialogue and collaboration. Pilot implementations at two organizations, the Institute of Futures Studies in Health (IFSH) and the Royan Institute, demonstrated the game’s potential to align organizational goals with stakeholder perspectives, reduce resistance to change, and promote strategic planning. Participants highlighted the game’s ability to enhance engagement, foster creativity, and make future scenarios more tangible. Despite some challenges, including time constraints and skill requirements, the game proved adaptable and cost-effective. Lessons learned from these implementations have informed recommendations for refining the game and adapting it to diverse organizational contexts. As the game continues to evolve, further applications across sectors can enhance its development and impact in managing change effectively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"168 ","pages":"Article 103562"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143529698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Problems with creating useful scientifically valid futures scenarios","authors":"Richard A. Rosen","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103566","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103566","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Attempting to do “Futures” research is beset with many scientific and mathematical problems. One major question is what does it really mean to develop useful scenarios for the future to help one understand the likely impact of key policy issues that a researcher wants to address? And if it is hard to create a believable projection for the relevant system to be studied in a “business-as-usual” scenario, is creating other types of Futures scenarios any more likely to be scientifically valid for doing policy research? Furthermore, what kinds of alternative Futures scenarios make sense to create, and how should the methodologies used to create them depend on the policy issues being addressed? This paper will attempt to address these questions in the context of what doing good science, the key ingredient, implies for doing useful futures research.</div><div>Another more technical issue which besets the creation of Futures scenarios is the question of to what extent can statistical methodologies be scientifically valid in their creation, and how are statistical methodologies often misused in doing futures research? Finally, the key issue of how one can make each scenario of the future internally consistent and plausible, if one can, is addressed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"167 ","pages":"Article 103566"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143437305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mapping the use of emerging technologies within the public sector across the EU: The case of Public Sector Tech Watch","authors":"Michele Veneziano,&nbsp;Carolina Gerli","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103564","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103564","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Public organizations across the EU are integrating emergent technologies, but information on these applications remains scarce. The European Commission's Public Sector Tech Watch (PSTW) is the first observatory that monitors the use of emerging technologies in public organizations consolidating this information into a single repository. The PSTW, established in 2023, aims to be the central hub for stakeholders interested in the latest technological advancements for improving public sector services. This research uses PSTW as a case study to explore the evolution of mapping emerging technologies as an anticipatory practice in the public sector. Using Schatzkian practice theory, the study analyzes changes in activities, material arrangements, and organizing elements through interviews, observations, and document reviews. Findings reveal that expectations have become central, shaping both the evaluation of public value and the narratives in PSTW outputs. These developments suggest that the PSTW is progressively transforming into an anticipatory knowledge hub. Key drivers of this transformation are repository expansion, community-building initiatives, and alignment with broader EU digital policies. Our paper contributes to the literature on anticipatory practices by offering a longitudinal perspective, delving into the evolutionary process of the practice, and emphasizing the critical role of mapping practices in shaping expectations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"167 ","pages":"Article 103564"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143437306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Future of food: A technology-centered path towards sustainable production in 2100","authors":"Karim Jebari ,&nbsp;Emma Engström","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103565","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103565","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We stipulate a normatively desirable scenario for food production in 2100 and formulate a specific technology-centered path to reach it. In this scenario, the human population has increased following mainstream projections and food consumption patterns remain similar to current ones, while impacts on land systems, the biosphere, freshwater use, and eutrophying emissions from food production are substantially reduced (by more than 25 %). We divide the global diet into three categories: fruits and vegetables, grains, and animal products, which together represent 88 % of the food consumed currently. In each category, we select one technology with potential to contribute substantially to the desirable scenario: vertical farming for fruits and vegetables; genetically modified (GM) crops for improved photosynthesis of grains; and realistic plant- and microbe-based substitutes for animal products. Assuming widespread adoption of these technologies in 2100, we project that the area of farmland used, the amount of eutrophying emissions, and the freshwater used would decrease by 54 %, 46 %, and 32 %, respectively. We discuss adoption challenges and suggest policies for the implementation of these technologies, finding that increased public acceptance of alternatives to animal products and GM crops are crucial. Also, abundant access to affordable fossil-free energy is a prerequisite for two of the three recommended innovations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"167 ","pages":"Article 103565"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143454074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Co-creating climate future pathways for northwestern Ghana: The use of the Three Horizons framework","authors":"Charity Osei-Amponsah ,&nbsp;Ibrahim Abu Abdulai","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103567","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103567","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The impacts of climate change affect all social groups, even if not to the same extent. However, increasingly the interests and perspectives of some vulnerable groups (e.g. school children, traditional leaders, women groups, and smallholder farmers), especially at the sub-national level, are often not captured and prioritised in designing climate resilience interventions. This study addresses the question of how assembling relevant stakeholders and providing a ‘safe space’ for effective communication helps in the co-creation of solution pathways that reflect their priorities for impactful development planning. We used qualitative data from 57 stakeholders in northwestern Ghana brought together in a one-and-half-day workshop to co-identify current signs of the climate crisis and imagine desirable climate future pathway using the Three Horizons (3 H) framework. Data were analysed using thematic analysis. Applying the 3 H framework along with a scenario building exercise proofed a useful approach to collaborative sharing of ideas and perspectives on climate change and resilience planning. Bringing different stakeholders together enables the effective visioning of their desired future, and to co-identify the pathways to achieving it. Thus, the 3 H framework, when integrated into climate resilience planning, enables vulnerable social groups to think creatively about positive transformative change. We recommend that the 3 H framework should be integral to planning of climate resilience interventions at the national and subnational levels.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"167 ","pages":"Article 103567"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143445863","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}