IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103489

Stefanie Baasch, Judith Maschke, Jaqueline Buhk

{"title":"An (in-)just transition? Sociotechnical imaginaries of the \"green\" hydrogen and steel transition in Bremen, Germany","authors":"Stefanie Baasch, Judith Maschke, Jaqueline Buhk","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103489","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103489","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Hydrogen is considered one of the most important energy sources of the future, especially for the decarbonization of industry and the zero-carbon target in 2050. Despite high expectations, the transition to clean or green hydrogen is still in its infancy, although strategies and measures are being developed under considerable time pressure. In Germany, hydrogen strategies have been published at both national and state level, and significant funding programs have been initiated to support a fast ramp-up. This paper presents the results of a qualitative interview study with Bremen stakeholders on the sociotechnical imaginaries around the state's hydrogen transition, which is strongly focused on the decarbonization of the local steelworks. Conceptually, this study combines two strands: sociotechnical imaginaries and multiple energy justices. The results show that ideas about the future hydrogen transition are largely embedded in ecological modernization thinking, although they are still very vague and sometimes controversial. So far, justice aspects have been addressed almost exclusively in the narrow context of local job preservation, and not or hardly at all in the context of global hydrogen strategies. This carries the risk of designing a transition that further exacerbates the inequalities and injustices of existing energy systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 103489"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142553717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Transformative territorial assessment of food systems: A post-normal science perspective 粮食系统的变革性地域评估：后常态科学视角

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103492

Pedro Lopez-Merino , Claire Lamine

{"title":"Transformative territorial assessment of food systems: A post-normal science perspective","authors":"Pedro Lopez-Merino , Claire Lamine","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103492","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103492","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The importance of food systems’ transformations worldwide in order to achieve sustainability is recognised at all levels and scales, and the assessment of the said sustainability appears as a central element to understand the very aspects that need transforming. In parallel, the territorial scale is increasingly seen as the right one to produce such transformations, both in the scientific literature and in policy debates. There has been a proliferation of sustainability assessment methods and tools over the past couple of decades. Yet, researchers agree that these have been mostly unable to support the aforementioned transformations. A post-normal outlook may help in doing so, and it is of interest to identify the aspects that can help rendering assessment coherent with post-normal science. We identify three central categories that can help in doing so, and should thus be considered as central elements in sustainability assessment of Food Systems. These are <em>interdependencies between system components, the system’s trajectories and actors’ participation</em>. We draw elements from the scientific literature to justify the importance of these elements, and carry out a focused literature review of Food System sustainability assessment at the territorial scale to see the extent to which the methodologies proposed incorporate them.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 103492"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142535443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Influence of social factors and environmental behaviour in the knowledge and opinion about circular economy 社会因素和环境行为对循环经济知识和观点的影响

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103490

Víctor Sampedro-Beneyto, Asunción Agulló-Torres, Francisco J. Del_Campo-Gomis, Irene Arias-Navarro

{"title":"Influence of social factors and environmental behaviour in the knowledge and opinion about circular economy","authors":"Víctor Sampedro-Beneyto, Asunción Agulló-Torres, Francisco J. Del_Campo-Gomis, Irene Arias-Navarro","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103490","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103490","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The United Nations and the European Union, as well as other public institutions, are engaged in significant efforts to advance the promotion of the Circular Economy. The dissemination of messages regarding such initiatives to the citizens is of great importance, as this is expected to serve as a catalyst for the transition from a linear to a Circular Economy. Therefore, the objective is to analyse the knowledge and opinion about the Circular Economy in the province of Alicante (Spain) on a convenience sample and stratified into groups by gender, age, studies and environmental behaviour. This analysis will determine whether the efforts to disseminate knowledge and improve opinion about the Circular Economy are succeeding. The results indicate that there is an accurate knowledge and good opinion about Circular Economy in the scenario analysed in Alicante province (Spain), but a lot of work should be done to improve it both through greater involvement of society and companies, and by publicizing the benefits of the Circular Economy to the society.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 103490"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142535565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Artificial intelligence in the judiciary: A critical view 司法机构中的人工智能：批判性观点

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103493

Stephanie Almeida de Jesus Dias , Renato Máximo Sátiro

引用次数: 0

Relational visioning and the emerging future: Transforming towards a sustainable local society 关系愿景与新兴未来：向可持续的地方社会转变

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103486

Rita Nerland , Dina Hestad , Gisle Solbu , Kristin Hansen , Heidi Rapp Nilsen

{"title":"Relational visioning and the emerging future: Transforming towards a sustainable local society","authors":"Rita Nerland , Dina Hestad , Gisle Solbu , Kristin Hansen , Heidi Rapp Nilsen","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103486","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103486","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Earth is currently facing unprecedented anthropogenic impacts. In this context of widespread environmental degradation and climate anxiety, there is an urgent need to reimagine our approaches to sustainability. This paper explores how a relational framing of sustainability can be applied to visioning exercises to foster transformative actions in local governance. While relational approaches are increasingly recognized as important to spark transformative change, their benefits and practical applicability to visioning are still under-explored. Drawing on findings from a multi-stakeholder workshop in a Norwegian municipality, we make two main contributions to the existing literature. First, we demonstrate how a relational visioning process can be carried out, identifying three key elements for establishing a relational foundation that can catalyse effective sustainability transformations: 1) the act of listening deeply, 2) integrating values, and 3) defining direction. Second, we contribute with new insights concerning the benefits and practical application in local sustainability governance contexts, highlighting the need for facilitating incremental (yet radical) changes in existing governance frameworks that are sensitive to available bureaucratic resources.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 103486"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142535563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Sociotechnical transitions in the system for providing beef to human food: Scenarios for cultured meat 为人类食品提供牛肉的系统中的社会技术转型：养殖肉类的前景

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103488

Alice Munz Fernandes , Odilene de Souza Teixeira , Gleimiria Batista da Costa Matos , Jean Philippe Revillion , Ângela Rozane Leal de Souza

{"title":"Sociotechnical transitions in the system for providing beef to human food: Scenarios for cultured meat","authors":"Alice Munz Fernandes , Odilene de Souza Teixeira , Gleimiria Batista da Costa Matos , Jean Philippe Revillion , Ângela Rozane Leal de Souza","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103488","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103488","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The objective of this work was to investigate the possible scenarios of sociotechnical transitions for cultured meat, considering a time horizon of ten years. We employ methodological procedures from the <em>La Prospective</em> School of scenario planning. Through the structural analysis, we identified ten key variables concerning the sociotechnical system of cultured meat, oriented according to the five sociotechnical regimes: technological, scientific, political, socio-cultural, and user and market. Subsequently, based on each key variable, we propose possible key events. The results present plausible scenarios for the next ten years (2022–2032). Using the key events identified based on theoretical contributions of sociotechnical transitions, we propose dynamics and transition paths for the sociotechnical system of supplying cultured meat. Thus, elements inherent to the exogenous landscape, the characteristics of the sociotechnical regimes, and the peculiarities of the aforementioned innovation developed at the technological niche level are highlighted. The findings do not neglect any possibility or transition path, but point to a greater inclination towards the path of transformation and reconfiguration to the detriment of de-alignment and realignment, and technological replacement. Thus, our contributions provide insights and reflections on the plausible paths of these modifications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 103488"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142553718","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

World Futures Day 2023 Global futures agenda by The Millennium Project 千年项目制定的 2023 年世界未来日全球未来议程

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103485

Mara Di Berardo

{"title":"World Futures Day 2023 Global futures agenda by The Millennium Project","authors":"Mara Di Berardo","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103485","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103485","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>World Futures Day (WFD), the 24 h round-the-world participatory method hosted every year by The Millennium Project and others on March 1, stimulates conversations and collective intelligence on possible futures. The 2023 edition marked its tenth anniversary. The 2023 Global futures agenda coming out from the data analysis is composed of four main clusters, each listing future oriented topics and related contents. Cluster 1, Complex solutions for complex problems, includes topics such as Environmental regeneration, Predictable food systems, Energy transition, Homo Galaxia, and Synergetic relations for peace. Cluster 2, A hyper-technological humanity, includes topics such as A biological revolution, New definitions of truth, An emotional AGI, A conscious AGI, and AGI governance. Cluster 3, Education and learning for a better future, includes topics such as Intelligent agent teachers, Intergenerational storytelling, and A cultural shift to self-actualization. Cluster 4, Improving global foresight, includes topics such as Futurists as a contradiction, A new leadership agenda, Futures shapers, The power of stories, Judging trillions of scenarios, Committees and summits for the future. After discussing some changes in the contents addressed over the years and some potential next steps for the research on WFD, the conclusions report that one key takeaway from WFD 2023 is that we have a vital need for pragmatic hope.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 103485"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142535445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A meta-network analysis of methodological specifications for system dynamics modelling application in agricultural food systems 农业粮食系统中应用系统动力学建模的方法规范元网络分析

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103484

J. Aboah , M.M.J. Wilson , K. Bicknell , E.D. Setsoafia

{"title":"A meta-network analysis of methodological specifications for system dynamics modelling application in agricultural food systems","authors":"J. Aboah , M.M.J. Wilson , K. Bicknell , E.D. Setsoafia","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103484","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103484","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper aims to review existing applications of system dynamics modelling in agricultural food systems and draw insights from the various modelling procedures in order to highlight best-practice guidelines on methodological specifications for SD modelling. A meta-network analysis was used to identify existing studies that have applied SD modelling in agriculture. Using an algorithm that automatically clusters closely connected research articles based on Boolean search strings that look at the title, keywords, abstract, and digital object identifier (DOI) of the journal articles, 354 journal articles were selected for in-depth content analysis.</div><div>Based on the synthesised trends, two criteria for determining the type of modelling process and model type to apply for the model conceptualisation step are: (<em>i</em>) the immediate end goal of the modelling process, and (<em>ii</em>) data availability. Participatory modelling is appropriate when there is limited data and model outputs will inform the implementation of interventions by stakeholders. For action research focusing on well-researched food systems with substantial data available, the semi-participatory modelling process can be adopted, and quantitative SD models can be solitarily used. A key contribution of this paper is the proposed procedure for emergent participatory scenario development within the system dynamics modelling process.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 103484"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142446260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Exploring intercultural perspectives of migration futures in a super-diverse city through intercultural participatory futures workshops: The case of Istanbul 通过跨文化参与式未来研讨会，探索一个超级多元化城市移民未来的跨文化视角：伊斯坦布尔案例

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103482

María Laura Ramírez Galleguillos , Aya Eloiriachi , Büşra Serdar , Aykut Coşkun

{"title":"Exploring intercultural perspectives of migration futures in a super-diverse city through intercultural participatory futures workshops: The case of Istanbul","authors":"María Laura Ramírez Galleguillos , Aya Eloiriachi , Büşra Serdar , Aykut Coşkun","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103482","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103482","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Most migration futures studies focus on <em>reacting</em> to migration issues such as flows and crises rather than exploring alternative images of futures centered on individual’s migration experiences. Addressing the limitations of existing practices criticized for their short-term, problem-oriented, and predominantly western, male-dominated, and colonized perspectives, this article presents intercultural participatory futures workshops as a novel technique for exploring more inclusive and intercultural migration futures. This approach enabled participants to collaboratively envision, build, and discuss alternative futures of migration for Istanbul in 2050 in eight workshop sessions with 35 intercultural participants. Additionally, it fostered a space to share experiences, and thoughts on futures, while meaningfully interacting with one another. Therefore, the contribution of this article to the migration futures field is two-fold: first, it showcases the potential of intercultural participatory futures workshops for exploring and constructing inclusive and participatory visions of migration futures, while contrasting collective visions and individual concerns; and second, it explains the relevance of this approach as a unique opportunity to foster intercultural meaningful social interactions, a key kind of interaction for social inclusion between individuals with migration backgrounds and host society.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 103482"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142441786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Navigating the transition: Unraveling the EU's different imaginaries for a just future 过渡时期的导航：解读欧盟对公正未来的不同想象

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103483

Niklas Klüh, Veith Selk, Michèle Knodt

{"title":"Navigating the transition: Unraveling the EU's different imaginaries for a just future","authors":"Niklas Klüh, Veith Selk, Michèle Knodt","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103483","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103483","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The European Union has translated the imperative of Just Transition into a comprehensive mix of instruments. In this way, the EU formulates its future visions of a just and sustainable European society. However, researchers have not yet examined the mix of instruments as an object of “making of futures”. To understand these future visions and the practical implications for the implementation of the instrument mix, our paper draws on the concept of imaginaries. Through a typological content analysis of the instruments, we reveal that the instruments are rooted in two distinct imaginaries. The Impact Mitigation Imaginary conservatively seeks to mitigate the negative impacts of transition on the socio-economic status quo. The Social Justice Imaginary, by contrast, progressively aims for a more equitable society during the transition. Considering also the implementation aspects of the instruments, we show that the instrument mix is inconsistent and only partially credible. We conclude that the implementation of the mix shifts the negotiation between progressive and conservative visions of a just and sustainable future to the national level with its own (power) interests. In this process, several implementation challenges may arise.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 103483"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142535562","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

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