Futures最新文献 - Book学术

Policy design and decision criteria for sustainable water supply from the perspective of “imaginary future generations” - A deliberation experiment with policymakers in a municipality, Japan 从“想象的未来世代”的角度看可持续供水的政策设计和决策标准——日本某城市决策者的审议实验

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-05-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103618

Keishiro Hara, Taiga Ikenaga, Takanobu Arai, Yukari Fuchigami

{"title":"Policy design and decision criteria for sustainable water supply from the perspective of “imaginary future generations” - A deliberation experiment with policymakers in a municipality, Japan","authors":"Keishiro Hara, Taiga Ikenaga, Takanobu Arai, Yukari Fuchigami","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103618","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103618","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To maintain sustainable water supply systems, it is indispensable to design relevant policies with a long-term perspective. In this paper, we present a novel approach to design policies on sustainable water supply by adopting “Imaginary Future Generations (IFGs)” which has been proven effective in generating futurability of individuals. We conducted deliberation experiments focused on envisioning future water supply services and policies with the participation of employees of the Suita City Water Works Bureau and analyzed the impacts of adopting IFGs on policy design and policymaking criteria. Based on the discussion results and questionnaires administrated to the participants, we demonstrate that the perspective of IFGs could lead to producing vary different visions of water supply system in 2050 and different policy measures compared to the perspective of current generations, due mainly to the change in the decision criteria. The results show that the method could stimulate awareness of water supply use and services at the household level by citizens and the proposal of measures based on a sense of crisis about the future. We conclude that the method could facilitate more effective and flexible policy formulation aimed at realizing a sustainable water supply system from a long-term perspective by generating futurability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 103618"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143935200","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Crisis of imagination: Integrating degrowth pedagogy for sustainability innovation in business schools 想象危机：将去增长教学法融入商学院的可持续性创新

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-05-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103614

Carla Liuzzo , Mimi Tsai

{"title":"Crisis of imagination: Integrating degrowth pedagogy for sustainability innovation in business schools","authors":"Carla Liuzzo , Mimi Tsai","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103614","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103614","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As human activity increasingly exceeds planetary boundaries, business schools must rethink growth-dependent education. Drawing on survey findings from MBA students at a triple-accredited Australian business school, we assess current business school students' perceptions to argue that degrowth pedagogy should be integrated into business schools, which remain largely committed to pedagogical approaches that reinforce capitalism’s dominance and limit students' imagination of alternatives. Educated to prioritise economic growth, profit maximisation, and competition, students often struggle to envision alternative strategies that prioritise sustainability beyond growth. While students grapple with capitalism’s contradictions and environmental and social concerns, they overwhelmingly perceive free-market capitalism as fixed and struggle to conceive of life beyond it. Despite these challenges, this study reveals an openness to critically engaging with alternative models, including those proposed by degrowth. This presents an opportunity for business schools to integrate degrowth pedagogy, challenge the dominance of free-market capitalism, expand students’ perspectives, and cultivate future leaders capable of designing and leading businesses that operate within planetary boundaries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 103614"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143935201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Creating local storylines for climate mitigation and adaptation with policymakers across Europe: a new participatory and bottom-up method 与欧洲各地的政策制定者一起为气候减缓和适应创造当地故事：一种新的参与性和自下而上的方法

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-05-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103617

Paola López-Muñoz , Luis Llases , Arthur Lauer , Eleonora Mencarini

{"title":"Creating local storylines for climate mitigation and adaptation with policymakers across Europe: a new participatory and bottom-up method","authors":"Paola López-Muñoz , Luis Llases , Arthur Lauer , Eleonora Mencarini","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103617","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103617","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While climate change is a global problem, solutions are often rooted at the local level. Consequently, the capacity to mitigate or adapt to climate change in local contexts is increasingly recognized as a crucial element in coping with it. Climate policies must be highly context-dependent, as they need to account for local needs and priorities. This article contributes to the ongoing research on participatory climate change socioeconomic scenarios and climate-resilient development pathways by presenting a participatory methodology for creating bottom-up, locally tailored climate adaptation and mitigation storylines. The methodology combines a visioning technique with an analytical framework that categorizes the visioning outcomes, facilitating scenario development while addressing real challenges to promote the co-creation of viable, site-specific solutions. We applied this methodology with policymakers from four case studies across Europe, revealing significant differences in how mitigation and adaptation are prioritized, policy actions chosen, key actors involved, and economic sectors impacted in each case. These findings underscore the value of the method in bridging local and scientific knowledge and generating context-sensitive narratives which can be compared between them. Finally, we present a set of qualitative climate mitigation and adaptation scenarios, outlining possible and desirable developments for each case study by 2050.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 103617"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143929543","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Reviewing the expansion in design futuring research: Emergent concepts around speculative design and design fiction 回顾设计未来研究的扩展：围绕思辨设计和设计虚构的新兴概念

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-05-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103615

Abdullah Tarik Celik , Cigdem Kaya

{"title":"Reviewing the expansion in design futuring research: Emergent concepts around speculative design and design fiction","authors":"Abdullah Tarik Celik , Cigdem Kaya","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103615","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103615","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><em>Design Futuring</em> (DF), situated at the intersection of design and futures studies, has recently emerged as a vibrant research area, involving approaches such as speculative design and design fiction. We provide a systematic literature review to map out the recent theoretical and methodological directions within DF, based on a total of 117 papers in English. We address four significant themes based on our analysis of the corpus: <em>Theorizing DF, (Research) Methods for DF, Materialization and Participation in DF,</em> and <em>Emerging Socio-Technical Issues around DF.</em> Despite the absence of a unified consensus on definitions and frameworks, our research highlights that the advancements in theoretical contributions to knowledge production have enhanced the credibility in DF research. Storytelling methodologies, particularly those that emphasize performance and interactive experiences, are evolving as a new methodological path in DF, enriched by socio-philosophical theories such as posthumanism and object-oriented ontology. This diversity of methods not only broadens the scope of DF but also facilitates collaborations with various design contexts such as service design and participatory design, alongside emerging research areas like more-than-human design and transition design. These insights open up new avenues in DF research and practice, disseminating the consideration of marginalized human and non-human agencies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 103615"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143929542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

In recognition of Funtowicz and Ravetz’s collaborative contributions to Futures 为了表彰Funtowicz和Ravetz对未来的合作贡献

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-04-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103613

Chris Groves , Patrick van der Duin

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Leveraging value-based pathways for Indigenous food security through participatory scenario planning: A case study from St. Paul Island, Alaska, USA 通过参与式情景规划利用基于价值的途径促进土著粮食安全：来自美国阿拉斯加圣保罗岛的案例研究

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-04-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103610

Silja Zimmermann , Brian J. Dermody , Aleut Community of St. Paul Island , Martin J. Wassen , Ruby L. Fried , Elena Bennett , Elson Ian Nyl Ebreo Galang , Lauren M. Divine , Veronica M. Padula , Ine Dorresteijn

{"title":"Leveraging value-based pathways for Indigenous food security through participatory scenario planning: A case study from St. Paul Island, Alaska, USA","authors":"Silja Zimmermann , Brian J. Dermody , Aleut Community of St. Paul Island , Martin J. Wassen , Ruby L. Fried , Elena Bennett , Elson Ian Nyl Ebreo Galang , Lauren M. Divine , Veronica M. Padula , Ine Dorresteijn","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103610","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103610","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Arctic Indigenous food systems face significant pressure, necessitating transformative changes to ensure food security. Given that Arctic Indigenous communities’ food security is disproportionally being affected by global change, it is important that they develop action plans focused on local agency to meet the challenges they face and leverage food system futures that align with local values. We employ a co-produced participatory scenario planning (PSP) approach that combines PSP with positive scenarios from seeds, leverage points (LP), and intergenerational dialogue to challenge traditional future prospects that tend to be pessimistic and support food security for the Aleut Community of St. Paul Island (ACSPI). Through focus groups, a PSP workshop, and a pathways workshop, this study (i) mobilizes intergenerational community values, develops (ii) four positive future scenarios grounded in these values, and (iii) five pathways to achieve a shared vision of the future food system, and (iv) identifies effective LP for real-world change. The community's shared vision represents a diverse, sovereign local food system rooted in Unangax̂ values. Pathways toward this vision include interventions for local capacity building, economic diversification, local agency, subsistence lifestyles, and community cohesion and health. The paper highlights the transformative potential of co-produced PSP in supporting Arctic Indigenous communities in envisioning and achieving sustainable futures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"170 ","pages":"Article 103610"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143878368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The interplay of future making and foresight: Insights from a family business case study 未来决策和远见的相互作用：来自一个家族企业案例研究的见解

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-04-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103608

Elena Zehnder , Jan Oliver Schwarz

{"title":"The interplay of future making and foresight: Insights from a family business case study","authors":"Elena Zehnder , Jan Oliver Schwarz","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103608","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103608","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Although foresight has been credited with supporting organizations in dealing with the future, recent crises have highlighted the need to anticipate the future more effectively. Moreover, it has been argued that the future conceptualized in this context is not sufficiently complex. Under the label of <em>future making</em>, it has been proposed to investigate how actors within an organization interact with the future. The study explores how long-established family firms construct narratives of the future in practice because of their huge relevance in many economies and their long-term orientation. Therefore, we adopt a future making perspective that focuses on collaborative processes for shaping preferred futures. The research is based on empirical data collected via semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders in a family business. It concludes that the company’s future is strongly influenced by its traditional family identity, with the founding family playing a pivotal role in shaping that identity. The company's future making is informal, avoiding corporate foresight processes that are seen as inhibiting. Despite appearing unstructured, the family business unconsciously follows underlying theoretical models. However, it is emphasized that understanding their approach to future making is critical for family businesses, highlighting the need for further exploration of its implications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"170 ","pages":"Article 103608"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143873258","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Fantastical cities: A systematic review of the architectural imaginary 幻想城市：对建筑幻想的系统回顾

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-04-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103611

Narmeen Marji, Mattia Thibault, Juho Hamari

{"title":"Fantastical cities: A systematic review of the architectural imaginary","authors":"Narmeen Marji, Mattia Thibault, Juho Hamari","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103611","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103611","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Driven by the notion that fantastical cities and the architectural imaginary are deeply embedded in cultural, social, and political contexts, this systematic literature review explores the relationship between fantastical cities and the architectural imaginary within academic discourse. It examines their conceptualization, representation, and interpretation through a multidimensional framework incorporating: “Cultural and Social”, “Physical and Spatial”, and “Political and Economic” dimensions. Adhering to PRISMA guidelines, the review identifies and analyses 35 peer-reviewed articles published in academic journals in English. Following a narrative synthesis approach, the study identifies how these dimensions shape the academic understanding of urban and architectural imaginations across various media, uncovering critical gaps and future research opportunities. It maps architectural and urban elements used to describe fictional cities in literature, revealing how these elements visualize alternative futures and spotlighting which aspects are emphasized or neglected. The study suggests further scholarly inquiry into less explored themes such as transportation modes, political authority, architectural features, and building materials within fictional contexts. Additionally, it advocates for incorporating non-Western and indigenous perspectives to broaden the global comprehension of these imaginative environments. This research contributes to the discourse on urban studies, architecture, media, and futures studies, enhancing our collective vision of urban spaces and continuing to shape the intersection of these creative fields.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"170 ","pages":"Article 103611"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143859612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Pastcasting: engaging with seemingly unreachable futures 传播：参与看似遥不可及的未来

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-04-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103609

Minna Laurell Thorslund , Elina Eriksson , Daniel Pargman , Mia Hesselgren , Pella Thiel , Martin Hedberg , Amanda Martling

引用次数: 0

Shaping the future: A conceptual review of sociotechnical imaginaries 塑造未来：对社会技术想象的概念回顾

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-04-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103607

Abe Hendriks , Kamilla Karhunmaa , Pierre Delvenne

{"title":"Shaping the future: A conceptual review of sociotechnical imaginaries","authors":"Abe Hendriks , Kamilla Karhunmaa , Pierre Delvenne","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103607","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103607","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The literature around sociotechnical imaginaries has proliferated since the seminal publications of Jasanoff and Kim (2009, 2015). In this conceptual review, we examine the evolution of the concept and engagement with it across disciplines. To investigate this, we develop and analyse a corpus of 306 papers that deal with, build on or develop the concept. We provide a description of the citation trends, the journals in which papers are published, and the empirical topics that are covered in the literature. Building on Jasanoff’s foundational insights about political differences, time, space, and collective identity, our evaluation examines how scholars have both elaborated and extended these dimensions. Our analysis focuses on four key areas of conceptual development: (1) how the future has been engaged with, (2) how the concept is used to trace changes over time, (3) the forms of comparison employed in research, and (4) the ways in which the spatio-material emphasis is manifested. Our analysis highlights how the concept has evolved through diverse encounters with other fields, and underscores how the concept can be useful for further research. We suggest focusing on the relations between imaginaries and adjacent concepts, the endurance of imaginaries, and the mediums through which imaginaries are channelled for further conceptual development with and through the concept.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"170 ","pages":"Article 103607"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143870773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0