Futures最新文献 - Book学术

Theorizing ‘the future’ in higher education: A framework for studying affective futurity 高等教育中的 "未来 "理论化：研究情感未来的框架

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-11-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103517

Michalinos Zembylas

引用次数: 0

The future of artificial intelligence: Insights from recent Delphi studies 人工智能的未来：来自最近德尔菲研究的见解

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103514

Ido Alon , Hazar Haidar , Ali Haidar , José Guimón

{"title":"The future of artificial intelligence: Insights from recent Delphi studies","authors":"Ido Alon , Hazar Haidar , Ali Haidar , José Guimón","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103514","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103514","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We review thirteen Delphi studies on the future of Artificial Intelligence (AI), published between 2014 and 2024. Using the Delphi method, an iterative approach that refines expert insights through multiple rounds, these studies provide foresight into AI’s technological advancements, societal impacts, and policy implications across various sectors. For example, Delphi studies in healthcare foresee significant advancements in AI-driven diagnostics and personalized medicine, while in manufacturing, AI is anticipated to enhance human-robot collaboration and supply chain optimization. AI’s impact on journalism and photography shows promise in automating processes and enriching immersive storytelling, although issues like data privacy and algorithmic bias are raised. This review emphasizes a primary focus on technology trajectories, examining anticipated developments and timelines, while also considering broader strategic foresight aspects. General challenges identified include equitable access, the need for robust data governance, and workforce upskilling to integrate AI responsibly. By synthesizing insights across these studies, we provide a structured overview of both opportunities and limitations in AI development, offering guidance for stakeholders to navigate AI's complexities and capitalize on its potential responsibly. In addition, we propose methodological recommendations, such as standardizing expert selection and diversifying perspectives to improve the quality of future Delphi studies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"165 ","pages":"Article 103514"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142747755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Tell me an (un)fortunate story: Advancing storytelling methods in energy futures research 告诉我一个（不）幸运的故事：在能源未来研究中推进讲故事的方法

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103505

Lillian Sol Cueva

引用次数: 0

Feminist urban futures: Envisioning the future of Ukrainian cities through the lens of the displaced community in Valencia (Spain) 女性主义城市未来：从巴伦西亚（西班牙）流离失所社区的视角展望乌克兰城市的未来

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103504

Oksana Udovyk , Ruth M-Domènech

{"title":"Feminist urban futures: Envisioning the future of Ukrainian cities through the lens of the displaced community in Valencia (Spain)","authors":"Oksana Udovyk , Ruth M-Domènech","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103504","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103504","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Amidst the context of the ongoing war, Ukraine faces the challenge of reconstruction. Similarly to other post-disaster and post-conflict contexts, the recovery efforts are being guided by the principles of “Build Back Better” (BBB). While these principles can be interpreted as embracing the ideals of sustainability, the challenge lies in how \"better\" is defined, particularly when the concept is generally interpreted through a lens that prioritizes top-down planning with a focus on infrastructure and economic outputs. The concept of “better” needs to be rethought, particularly from the perspective of the affected populations. However, the viewpoints and experiences of internationally displaced Ukrainians are notably absent from these discussions.</div><div>This research proposes a participatory approach to envisioning urban recovery from displacement, centring on the experiences of displaced Ukrainians residing in Valencia, Spain. By working with this community, the study aims to redefine “better” in the context of urban recovery in Ukraine. Drawing on feminist urbanism, critical development perspectives and futures studies, the study investigates the intersectional oppressions and insights of displaced individuals, through workshops, interviews, and photovoice methodologies.</div><div>The findings highlight a collective vision that prioritizes emotional resilience, social cohesion and care, with participants prioritizing community-oriented green spaces, inclusive public services, and sustainable mobility. These insights challenge conventional interpretations of BBB in traditional recovery models, which often focus on measurable economic outcomes and risk-perpetuating \"destructive reconstruction\". Instead, this research advocates for a more inclusive, sustainable, and socially just recovery process that honours the diverse needs and aspirations of everyone, including those displaced abroad.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 103504"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142652175","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Envisioning Inclusive Futures: Organizational Alternatives Beyond the Business Case Approach in the Spectrum of Utopia and Dystopia 展望包容性未来：乌托邦与乌托邦光谱中商业案例法之外的组织替代方案

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103501

Narcis HERACLIDE

{"title":"Envisioning Inclusive Futures: Organizational Alternatives Beyond the Business Case Approach in the Spectrum of Utopia and Dystopia","authors":"Narcis HERACLIDE","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103501","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103501","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Alternative futures are conceptualized as representations that transcend the dominant socio-economic paradigm, challenging the assumptions that underpin it. The primary goal is to generate new imaginaries that reframe and expand the possibilities. To achieve this, the mobilization of utopia and its corollary, dystopia, proves instrumental in accentuating the tensions between current organizational practices and representations of the future. To question the prevailing business case approach on the inclusion of people with disabilities within organizations, we conducted 18 semi-structured interviews with visually-impaired employees and stakeholders in organizational inclusion, exploring their visions of utopian and dystopian futures. The respondents’ utopian and dystopian visions highlight tensions between the temporalities of inclusive processes and economic performance. They also prompt us to consider inclusion not as a passive process but as an active one, driven by those directly affected, and evolving over time. This approach challenges the traditional conception of inclusion, often confined to a business case perspective, by encouraging a critical examination of how organizations can transform towards inclusive futures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"165 ","pages":"Article 103501"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142705552","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Scenarios for the future of tour guiding: A Delphi-based analysis for 2040 导游业的未来设想：基于德尔菲法的 2040 年分析

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103497

Nazlı Aysin Örnek , Kurtuluş Karamustafa

{"title":"Scenarios for the future of tour guiding: A Delphi-based analysis for 2040","authors":"Nazlı Aysin Örnek , Kurtuluş Karamustafa","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103497","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103497","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many events in the historical process impacted tour guiding, a professional group within the fragile tourism industry, and it is still being affected. To resist negative impacts, such fields need long-term strategies and a comprehensive understanding. Developing future scenarios is an important basis for long-term strategy development. Nevertheless, research exposes that there is a lack of awareness among tour guiding researchers and practitioners about future scenarios. This study addresses this gap by applying an extensive Delphi-based scenario study to create scenarios of the development of the tour guiding profession for the year 2040. We conducted the study using a four-step research approach, focusing on its political, economic, sociocultural, technological, and operational aspects. Scenario development builds on a literature review, two rounds of semi-structured interviews, a focus group interview, and a two-round real-time Delphi survey. In total, 34 projections and 241 comments were gathered using the Delphi method from tour guides and academicians. The outcomes are based on fuzzy clustering, which is used to classify the data into scenarios that are meaningful and interpretable. The study presented three scenarios about the future of tour guiding: (a) possible and most desirable, (b) plausible and desirable, and (c) surprising and less desirable.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"165 ","pages":"Article 103497"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142705551","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Imagined futures in sustainability transitions: Towards diverse future-making 可持续性转型中的想象未来：实现多样化的未来创造

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103502

Jonathan Friedrich , Abe Hendriks

引用次数: 0

Can telework help us to tip into low-carbon passenger transportation? 远程办公能帮助我们转向低碳客运吗？

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103503

Raphaela Maier , Annina Thaller , Eva Fleiß

{"title":"Can telework help us to tip into low-carbon passenger transportation?","authors":"Raphaela Maier , Annina Thaller , Eva Fleiß","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103503","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103503","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The pressure to mitigate climate change and to inhibit irreversible changes on the Earth’s system is large. In particular, the passenger transportation sector has to undergo a radical change to drastically reduce emissions. This study analyzes telework as an enabling condition to move passenger transportation onto a low-carbon trajectory. We used a mixed-methods approach with a qualitative expert focus group (<em>n</em> = 8) as a preparatory step and a consecutive national online survey focusing on the Austrian working population (<em>n</em> = 688), and linked our empirical results with findings from the international literature in a causal loop diagram. Our results show that the willingness to conduct telework and the level of acceptance for several incentives that support low-carbon mobility is high (personal agency). However, to translate this personal willingness into actual emission reductions, attractive framework conditions (societal agency) must be created. Therefore, telework should not be seen as an isolated area for action, as it most effectively unfolds its potential as an enabling condition when incorporated into a policy package with incentives for low-carbon mobility.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"165 ","pages":"Article 103503"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142747859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Temporality in the United Nations 2030 Agenda: development or rupture? 联合国 2030 年议程的时间性：发展还是断裂？

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103498

Juan Telleria

引用次数: 0

From “snowflake generation” to “agents of social change”: Recognizing the voice of Spanish young people in the post-pandemic era 从 "雪花一代 "到 "社会变革的推动者"：在后大流行病时代承认西班牙年轻人的声音

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103500

Silvia Marcu

{"title":"From “snowflake generation” to “agents of social change”: Recognizing the voice of Spanish young people in the post-pandemic era","authors":"Silvia Marcu","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103500","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103500","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article uses 60 in-depth interviews with young Spanish people and contributes to studies on youth geographies of future in post-pandemic. The paper gives young people a voice by analysing two interlinked concepts: (l) the “snowflake generation” – “<em>generación de cristal</em>” <em>–</em> which was popularized in Spain as a fragile and insecure generation and consequently exhibiting a lack of tolerance and frustration in the face of unachieved goals; and (2) “agents of change”, included on broader perspectives of youth activism, meaning a generation motivated by the desire to construct a regenerated post-pandemic society. My hypothesis is that the fragility of the younger generation after the pandemic has transformed over time into an aspiration and motivation to become agents of social change. The findings highlight that young people are using their technological knowledge and resilience to overcome fragility, participating and demanding recognition of their criticisms and perceptions of injustice. The conclusions offer a better understanding of young people and their capacity to be responsible and innovative, converting weakness into strength. They show the need to advance theoretical and empirical understanding of younger perspectives in relation to how they want to change and make a greater contribution to future society.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 103500"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142652326","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0