Futures最新文献 - Book学术

Digitized utopias: Public service delivery in smart Stockholm 数字化乌托邦：智能斯德哥尔摩的公共服务提供

IF 3.8 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103712

Marikken Wullf-Wathne , Karolina Isaksson

{"title":"Digitized utopias: Public service delivery in smart Stockholm","authors":"Marikken Wullf-Wathne , Karolina Isaksson","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103712","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103712","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Digitization, often performed under the heading of becoming “smart,” has been acknowledged as an approach to transform the public sector in terms of efficiency and effectiveness. But what are the specific ideals for future urban government in cities aiming to boost digitization of the public sector? This paper reports the results of an exploration of the smart city initiative in Stockholm. Using utopianism as a lens, the paper reveals the ageing population as a crucial driver of the smart city agenda. Data from interviews, document analyses and observations demonstrate the overall ambition to reduce public sector workload by digitizing and automating tasks, thereby cutting public resource use. This corresponds to findings within the broader digital government scholarship. However, the analysis also shows that becoming smart might create new, complex tasks for the public sector. The paper discusses how these developments might encourage widespread privatization of services currently performed by the public sector. Applying a utopian perspective allows for debate on the ambitions for future improvements embedded in smart city initiatives. Ultimately, such a lens can be applied to a vast range of urban issues, opening avenues for speculative insights into how future cities are envisioned.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 103712"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145230065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The traps and pitfalls of anticipatory governance – Comparative cases of South Korea and the United Kingdom - 预见性治理的陷阱和陷阱——韩国和英国的比较案例

IF 3.8 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103707

Kyungmoo Heo , Jonathan Joseph

{"title":"The traps and pitfalls of anticipatory governance – Comparative cases of South Korea and the United Kingdom -","authors":"Kyungmoo Heo , Jonathan Joseph","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103707","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103707","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article examines anticipatory governance (AG) in South Korea and the UK, revealing contrasting approaches, shaped by unique historical, political, and social contexts. It explores the levels of trust, consensus, and empowerment and the dynamics of government, society, and citizens in both countries. First, Korea demonstrates proactive, future-oriented and anticipatory policymaking through strong government leadership, readiness for adaption, and the participation of and wellnurtured futures literacy of citizens. This is rooted in a tradition of development and the government’s consciousness of public reaction, trust and legitimacy. Second, while the UK embraces an AG approach such as horizon scanning and foresight, these efforts are hindered by short-term resilience thinking, an absence of education and awareness of the public, and fragmented implementation. In the UK’s AG, resilience becomes an excuse for incapacity in finding solutions to complex problems while shifting responsibility of a government to the public without adequate capacity-building. Instead of longer-term planning, AG is used to justify governance from a distance, the role of the market and the responsibilisation of individuals. Moreover, resilience becomes an excuse for incapacity to find solutions to complex problems while shifting responsibility from the government to the public without adequate capacity-building. From this perspective, the Korean approach would be criticised as rooted in an overly-modernist and state-interventionist strategy that still sees the government as the main actor in times of crisis. The article concludes with the traps and pitfalls of AG, constrained by relation-based dynamics, neoliberal ideologies, and a focus on resilience over longterm planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103707"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145221867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

(Counter)productive hope: Scrutinising the role of hope in sustainability （反）生产性希望：审视希望在可持续性中的作用

IF 3.8 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103706

Marjo Lindroth , Heidi Sinevaara-Niskanen

引用次数: 0

Artificial Utopia: Simulation and artificially intelligent agents for exploring Utopian and democratized futures 人工乌托邦：用于探索乌托邦和民主化未来的模拟和人工智能代理

IF 3.8 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103695

Yannick Oswald

{"title":"Artificial Utopia: Simulation and artificially intelligent agents for exploring Utopian and democratized futures","authors":"Yannick Oswald","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103695","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103695","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Prevailing top-down systems in politics and economics struggle to keep pace with the pressing challenges of the 21st century, such as climate change, social inequality and conflict. Bottom-up democratization and participatory approaches in politics and economics are increasingly seen as promising alternatives to confront and overcome these issues, often with ‘utopian’ overtones, as proponents believe they may dramatically reshape political, social and ecological futures for the better and in contrast to contemporary authoritarian tendencies across various countries. Institutional specifics and the associated collective human behavior or culture remains little understood and debated, however. In this article, I propose a novel research agenda focusing on ‘utopian’ democratization efforts with formal and computational methods as well as with artificial intelligence – I call this agenda ‘Artificial Utopia’. Artificial Utopias provide safe testing grounds for new political ideas and economic policies ‘in-silico’ with reduced risk of negative consequences as compared to testing ideas in real-world contexts. An increasing number of advanced simulation and intelligence methods, that aim at representing human cognition and collective decision-making in more realistic ways, could benefit this process. This includes agent-based modeling, reinforcement learning, large language models and more. I clarify what some of these simulation approaches can contribute to the study of Artificial Utopias with the help of two institutional examples; the citizen assembly and the democratic firm. Finally, I discuss open questions and future research directions related to the broader Artificial Utopia agenda.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103695"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145221864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Discourse in the future of work: How do business organizations and labor unions view automation? 未来工作的论述：商业组织和工会如何看待自动化？

IF 3.8 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103704

Larry Liu

{"title":"Discourse in the future of work: How do business organizations and labor unions view automation?","authors":"Larry Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103704","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103704","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Within the future of work discourse, there is a growing public and scholarly concern about the displacement of jobs via automation and artificial intelligence. This article asks how actors such as business organizations and labor unions frame automation. An in-depth qualitative and computational topic modeling approach is used to capture the sentiment regarding automation from business federation (Business Roundtable, National Association of Manufacturers, US Chamber of Commerce) and labor union (AFL-CIO and other industry/ occupational unions) websites. The finding is that business federations are broadly supportive of automation, citing the needs for US companies to remain competitive producers internationally and bemoaning the lack of skilled workers to operate new technologies. Labor unions have exhibited mixed views on technology, with the national federation endorsing it as long as labor retains a voice. Some industry unions cast technology as a labor-displacing threat, others emphasize the opportunities for unions to provide job training, others reflect more mixed views. These divergent views reflect the underlying class conflict, where business interests benefit more from technology than organized labor and business power is more pervasive due to their uniform position on automation. Businesses promote an effectively dystopian future of work vision, while unions attempt to avert dystopia.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103704"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145158864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Constructing just mobility futures 构建流动性的未来

IF 3.8 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103698

Ruth Nelson , BinBin Pearce , Martijn Warnier , Trivik Verma

{"title":"Constructing just mobility futures","authors":"Ruth Nelson , BinBin Pearce , Martijn Warnier , Trivik Verma","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103698","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103698","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Scenario planning has become a common approach within transportation research to understand the varying impacts of transportation planning. By examining a range of uncertainties, scenarios can be developed that enable an exploration of alternative future visions of the world. Whilst there has been growing concern over the equity impacts of public transport investments, particularly in relation to accessibility of social and economic opportunities, equity of access considerations remain an underdeveloped area within transportation scenarios research. This has tremendous consequences for realising socially just mobility futures. Utilising the case study of Cape Town, in South Africa several transport scenarios are collectively developed through stakeholder engagement by analysing a number of parameters that have been identified as significant operational factors and policy levers. We develop representative urban network models for each scenario and evaluate equity of access to places of employment using a comparative equity framework. We find that a continuation of past trends leads to greater inequities, whereas alternative participatory future visions focused on the adoption of integrated transport and cycling indicate potential to decrease inequities. Overall the study highlights how the adoption of transportation solutions towards greater accessibility is not only an engineering problem, but a <em>human problem</em> related to institutional capacity, trust, coordination, community agency and political vision.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103698"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145221866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Embracing the digital horizon: Future scenarios for the Dutch higher education system 拥抱数字地平线：荷兰高等教育系统的未来前景

IF 3.8 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103702

Marie Louise Blankesteijn, Amir Ghorbani

{"title":"Embracing the digital horizon: Future scenarios for the Dutch higher education system","authors":"Marie Louise Blankesteijn, Amir Ghorbani","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103702","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103702","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Traditional teacher-oriented education models are becoming obsolete, digital technologies are reshaping the landscape of higher education, and governments are cutting university budgets. Dutch university leaders, as a global leaders in higher education, must consider these profound changes to ensure organizational resilience. Scenario planning is a valuable technique for identifying future drivers and envisioning possible futures. This paper aims to elaborate future scenarios of Dutch higher education in horizon 2040. By combination of scenario archetypes method and quantitative text analysis techniques, we analyzed 80 future-oriented documents and identified eight driving forces that shape the future of Dutch higher education system: (1) digital transformation; (2) demographic changes; (3) globalization and internationalization; (4) economic and labor market needs; (5) Sustainability and climate change; (6) funding challenges; (7) societal and cultural shifts; and (8) policy and governance. Based on these drivers, we outlined four distinct scenarios: (1) \"Digital Horizons: Navigating the Future of AI-Driven Higher Education\"; (2) \"The Great Decline: The Collapse of Higher Education Systems\"; (3) \"Guardians of Sustainability: A Disciplined Approach to Higher Education\"; and (4) \"Beyond Degrees: The Rise of Lifelong, Personalized Education.\" Scenario 1 is the most probable scenario (55 %), while scenario 2 is the least probable scenario (1 %). Theoretically, quantitative text analysis can offer promising methodology for futures studies by exponential growth of textual data. Practically, these drivers and scenarios provide Dutch university leaders with a holistic framework to design strategic planning, and initiatives, ensuring their universities remain resilience in evolving landscape.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103702"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145158862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Real-Time AI Delphi: A novel method for decision-making and foresight contexts 实时人工智能德尔福：一种决策和预见环境的新方法

IF 3.8 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103703

Yuri Calleo, Francesco Pilla

{"title":"Real-Time AI Delphi: A novel method for decision-making and foresight contexts","authors":"Yuri Calleo, Francesco Pilla","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103703","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103703","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper introduces the Real-Time AI Delphi (RT-AID), a novel methodology designed to enhance the traditional Real-Time Delphi method by integrating artificial intelligence models. The Delphi method, known for its structured approach to facilitating expert consensus or gathering relevant opinions on complex issues, has evolved over time but still faces challenges such as extended timeframes and expert dropout rates. RT-AID addresses these limitations by utilizing pre-trained generative transformers as a supporting agent, facilitating convergence of opinions and fostering real-time interaction among AI-generated perspectives. RT-AID is implemented through a web-based open system, with real-time analysis and statistical summaries allowing for efficient decision-making and futures exploration. The method is validated through a preliminary case study in the climate domain, with a 10-year time horizon for the city of Dublin. The results confirm that AI-supported expert opinions not only contribute interesting and valuable perspectives but also accelerate the convergence process when the experts’ sample is limited. This demonstrates the method’s ability to enhance both the collection and analysis of data while generating more diverse and creative scenarios for strategic decision-making. This innovation represents a significant advancement in futures studies, offering increased agility, improved scenario generation, and faster consensus-building through AI integration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103703"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145119299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Measuring the intangible: A multidimensional framework for assessing societal engagement in participatory foresight 衡量无形：参与性预见中评估社会参与的多维框架

IF 3.8 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103699

Agnė Paliokaitė , Erika Vaiginienė , Dovilė Gaižauskienė , Aurinta Elenskė

{"title":"Measuring the intangible: A multidimensional framework for assessing societal engagement in participatory foresight","authors":"Agnė Paliokaitė , Erika Vaiginienė , Dovilė Gaižauskienė , Aurinta Elenskė","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103699","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103699","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper explores the impacts of participatory foresight and societal engagement in policymaking, specifically focusing on Lithuania’s “Lithuania 2050” national visioning process. Participatory foresight integrates diverse stakeholders in strategic processes, yielding tangible outputs like policies and plans, as well as intangible benefits such as increased trust, shared responsibility, and democratic engagement. However, its qualitative and societal impacts often remain underexplored, limiting foresight’s transformative potential. The study proposes and empirically validates a conceptual framework to assess the multidimensional impacts of participatory foresight, emphasizing immediate and intermediate outcomes and focusing on intangible impacts of societal engagement. Using survey data from “Lithuania 2050” co-creators, the research validates diagnostic constructs for participatory foresight impacts using exploratory factor analysis. The proposed final framework bridges theoretical and practical gaps, providing tools for rigorous impact evaluation and highlighting participatory foresight’s potential to enhance inclusivity, resilience, and open governance. Limitations include the need for further validation and long-term impact framework development. This study contributes to advancing participatory foresight impact assessment models, developing valid scales for measuring the impacts of participatory foresight in quantitative research, and fostering open governance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103699"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145158863","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How crop models and government visions foreclose imaginaries of agroecological futures 农作物模型和政府愿景如何阻止对农业生态未来的想象

IF 3.8 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103701

Emma Johansson , Lisette van Beek

{"title":"How crop models and government visions foreclose imaginaries of agroecological futures","authors":"Emma Johansson , Lisette van Beek","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103701","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103701","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Against the backdrop of the ecological crisis, food production systems will need to transform to ensure future food security. There are contrasting visions of what this transformation should look like. This paper scrutinizes these competing imaginaries of future agriculture and associated styles of anticipation in Tanzania. We find that both government visions and global crop models anticipate futures in line with agricultural modernization; a food system driven by productivity and efficiency that is associated with adverse socio-ecological challenges. In contrast, an alternative imaginary transpires through the lived experiences and aspirations of small-holder farmers; an agroecological food system characterized by soil health, food quality and solidarity that is more in line with sustainability and justice. This lived future is overwritten by government visions and global crop models, which render the agroecological future unimaginable by abstracting and emptying the future. Our findings highlight that transformative change may not only be hindered by a ‘lack of imagination’, but rather the politics of anticipation through which existing radical visions become foreclosed. We propose diverse ways in which researchers may empower radical imaginaries that already exist among marginalized communities, including what this might mean for the future use of crop models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103701"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145119308","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0