Exploring futures through science fiction: A scenario-based PESTLE analysis of award-winning SF novels

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI:10.1016/j.futures.2025.103647

Danilo Brozović , Per Carlborg , Nina Hasche

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This article extends the exploration of potential futures as envisioned in science fiction (SF) literature by analyzing how emerging trends are portrayed through a structured analytical framework. Specifically, it examines award-winning SF novels, focusing on political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental (PESTLE) dimensions as imagined by prominent authors within the genre. Thus, the purpose of the article is to provide an overview of emerging trends and tendencies within imagined futures as depicted in acclaimed SF literature, framed through the lens of PESTLE analysis. To this end, four future scenarios were extrapolated from a selection of 42 novels that have either won or been nominated for major SF awards—the Nebula and the Hugo. These scenarios are: Solar System Expansion, Cyber High-Tech Future, Post-Contraction Society, and Dystopian Future. Each scenario is assessed according to its political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental characteristics.

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通过科幻小说探索未来：获奖科幻小说的基于场景的PESTLE分析

本文通过分析如何通过结构化的分析框架描绘新兴趋势，扩展了对科幻小说（SF）文学中所设想的潜在未来的探索。具体来说，它考察了获奖的科幻小说，重点关注政治、经济、社会、技术、法律和环境（PESTLE）维度，这些维度是由该类型的杰出作家想象的。因此，本文的目的是通过PESTLE分析的镜头，概述在广受好评的科幻文学中描绘的想象未来的新趋势和趋势。为此，我们从42部获得或被提名科幻大奖的小说——星云和雨果——中推断出四种未来的场景。这些场景分别是：太阳系扩张、网络高科技未来、后收缩社会、反乌托邦未来。每个方案都是根据其政治、经济、社会、技术、法律和环境特征进行评估的。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Futures Multiple-

CiteScore

6.00

自引率

10.00%

发文量

124

期刊介绍： Futures is an international, refereed, multidisciplinary journal concerned with medium and long-term futures of cultures and societies, science and technology, economics and politics, environment and the planet and individuals and humanity. Covering methods and practices of futures studies, the journal seeks to examine possible and alternative futures of all human endeavours. Futures seeks to promote divergent and pluralistic visions, ideas and opinions about the future. The editors do not necessarily agree with the views expressed in the pages of Futures