Futures最新文献_第10页

Envisioning Inclusive Futures: Organizational Alternatives Beyond the Business Case Approach in the Spectrum of Utopia and Dystopia 展望包容性未来：乌托邦与乌托邦光谱中商业案例法之外的组织替代方案

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103501

Narcis HERACLIDE

{"title":"Envisioning Inclusive Futures: Organizational Alternatives Beyond the Business Case Approach in the Spectrum of Utopia and Dystopia","authors":"Narcis HERACLIDE","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103501","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103501","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Alternative futures are conceptualized as representations that transcend the dominant socio-economic paradigm, challenging the assumptions that underpin it. The primary goal is to generate new imaginaries that reframe and expand the possibilities. To achieve this, the mobilization of utopia and its corollary, dystopia, proves instrumental in accentuating the tensions between current organizational practices and representations of the future. To question the prevailing business case approach on the inclusion of people with disabilities within organizations, we conducted 18 semi-structured interviews with visually-impaired employees and stakeholders in organizational inclusion, exploring their visions of utopian and dystopian futures. The respondents’ utopian and dystopian visions highlight tensions between the temporalities of inclusive processes and economic performance. They also prompt us to consider inclusion not as a passive process but as an active one, driven by those directly affected, and evolving over time. This approach challenges the traditional conception of inclusion, often confined to a business case perspective, by encouraging a critical examination of how organizations can transform towards inclusive futures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"165 ","pages":"Article 103501"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142705552","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Scenarios for the future of tour guiding: A Delphi-based analysis for 2040 导游业的未来设想：基于德尔菲法的 2040 年分析

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103497

Nazlı Aysin Örnek , Kurtuluş Karamustafa

{"title":"Scenarios for the future of tour guiding: A Delphi-based analysis for 2040","authors":"Nazlı Aysin Örnek , Kurtuluş Karamustafa","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103497","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103497","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many events in the historical process impacted tour guiding, a professional group within the fragile tourism industry, and it is still being affected. To resist negative impacts, such fields need long-term strategies and a comprehensive understanding. Developing future scenarios is an important basis for long-term strategy development. Nevertheless, research exposes that there is a lack of awareness among tour guiding researchers and practitioners about future scenarios. This study addresses this gap by applying an extensive Delphi-based scenario study to create scenarios of the development of the tour guiding profession for the year 2040. We conducted the study using a four-step research approach, focusing on its political, economic, sociocultural, technological, and operational aspects. Scenario development builds on a literature review, two rounds of semi-structured interviews, a focus group interview, and a two-round real-time Delphi survey. In total, 34 projections and 241 comments were gathered using the Delphi method from tour guides and academicians. The outcomes are based on fuzzy clustering, which is used to classify the data into scenarios that are meaningful and interpretable. The study presented three scenarios about the future of tour guiding: (a) possible and most desirable, (b) plausible and desirable, and (c) surprising and less desirable.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"165 ","pages":"Article 103497"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142705551","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Imagined futures in sustainability transitions: Towards diverse future-making 可持续性转型中的想象未来：实现多样化的未来创造

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103502

Jonathan Friedrich , Abe Hendriks

引用次数: 0

Can telework help us to tip into low-carbon passenger transportation? 远程办公能帮助我们转向低碳客运吗？

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103503

Raphaela Maier , Annina Thaller , Eva Fleiß

{"title":"Can telework help us to tip into low-carbon passenger transportation?","authors":"Raphaela Maier , Annina Thaller , Eva Fleiß","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103503","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103503","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The pressure to mitigate climate change and to inhibit irreversible changes on the Earth’s system is large. In particular, the passenger transportation sector has to undergo a radical change to drastically reduce emissions. This study analyzes telework as an enabling condition to move passenger transportation onto a low-carbon trajectory. We used a mixed-methods approach with a qualitative expert focus group (<em>n</em> = 8) as a preparatory step and a consecutive national online survey focusing on the Austrian working population (<em>n</em> = 688), and linked our empirical results with findings from the international literature in a causal loop diagram. Our results show that the willingness to conduct telework and the level of acceptance for several incentives that support low-carbon mobility is high (personal agency). However, to translate this personal willingness into actual emission reductions, attractive framework conditions (societal agency) must be created. Therefore, telework should not be seen as an isolated area for action, as it most effectively unfolds its potential as an enabling condition when incorporated into a policy package with incentives for low-carbon mobility.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"165 ","pages":"Article 103503"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142747859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Temporality in the United Nations 2030 Agenda: development or rupture? 联合国 2030 年议程的时间性：发展还是断裂？

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103498

Juan Telleria

引用次数: 0

From “snowflake generation” to “agents of social change”: Recognizing the voice of Spanish young people in the post-pandemic era 从 "雪花一代 "到 "社会变革的推动者"：在后大流行病时代承认西班牙年轻人的声音

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103500

Silvia Marcu

{"title":"From “snowflake generation” to “agents of social change”: Recognizing the voice of Spanish young people in the post-pandemic era","authors":"Silvia Marcu","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103500","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103500","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article uses 60 in-depth interviews with young Spanish people and contributes to studies on youth geographies of future in post-pandemic. The paper gives young people a voice by analysing two interlinked concepts: (l) the “snowflake generation” – “<em>generación de cristal</em>” <em>–</em> which was popularized in Spain as a fragile and insecure generation and consequently exhibiting a lack of tolerance and frustration in the face of unachieved goals; and (2) “agents of change”, included on broader perspectives of youth activism, meaning a generation motivated by the desire to construct a regenerated post-pandemic society. My hypothesis is that the fragility of the younger generation after the pandemic has transformed over time into an aspiration and motivation to become agents of social change. The findings highlight that young people are using their technological knowledge and resilience to overcome fragility, participating and demanding recognition of their criticisms and perceptions of injustice. The conclusions offer a better understanding of young people and their capacity to be responsible and innovative, converting weakness into strength. They show the need to advance theoretical and empirical understanding of younger perspectives in relation to how they want to change and make a greater contribution to future society.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 103500"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142652326","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The politics of transdisciplinary research on societal transitions 社会转型跨学科研究的政治性

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103499

Jonas House , Natalie Davis , Brian J. Dermody , Hilje van der Horst , Frederike Praasterink , Sigrid Wertheim-Heck

{"title":"The politics of transdisciplinary research on societal transitions","authors":"Jonas House , Natalie Davis , Brian J. Dermody , Hilje van der Horst , Frederike Praasterink , Sigrid Wertheim-Heck","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103499","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103499","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Within research on societal transitions, ‘post-normal’ scientific approaches such as transdisciplinary research are increasingly prominent. The difficulties of interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary research are well-established, but less attention has been paid to the underlying causes of these difficulties. In this essay, we argue that the political natures of both ‘transdisciplinarity’ and ‘transitions’ themselves underlie the more visible research challenges. While recent work has outlined how transitions research, embedded as it is in the sociopolitical milieu, can reproduce or challenge existing regimes, here we discuss more specifically the politics of projects themselves, which necessarily affect how they inform societal transitions. Using literature and examples from our own work, we outline three politically contested areas in projects – stakeholder inclusion, understanding of transitions, and research questions that are considered – and identify two broad orientations that research can follow to address these: incremental or fundamental. The interconnectedness of the political aspects of transdisciplinary transitions research requires explicit attention, we argue, if such work is to effectively address complex and ‘wicked’ societal challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 103499"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142572389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Exploring urban novel ecosystems: Understandings, insights and recommendations for future research and practice 探索城市新生态系统：对未来研究和实践的理解、见解和建议

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103487

Melissa Pineda-Pinto , Marcus Collier , Clair Cooper , Mairéad O’Donnell , Fiona Nulty , Natalia Rodriguez Castañeda

{"title":"Exploring urban novel ecosystems: Understandings, insights and recommendations for future research and practice","authors":"Melissa Pineda-Pinto , Marcus Collier , Clair Cooper , Mairéad O’Donnell , Fiona Nulty , Natalia Rodriguez Castañeda","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103487","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103487","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Novel ecosystems are those that have been altered by human activities and have afterwards experienced abandonment or human disuse, allowing for a new assemblage of species to establish. In urban areas, these ecosystems, are commonly found in post-industrial sites, vacant lots, and other unmanaged spaces. The informality of these ecosystems, assumptions of their low ecological value, and associations with negative attributes continue to prevent recognition of their social-ecological value. Although research in the last decade has started to show the potential of novel ecosystems to address several challenges such as biodiversity loss, there remains a need to understand what areas of research are needed to progress our understanding of these ecosystems in urban areas. This paper uses a modified Delphi methodology, in which a panel of knowledge-holders provided their understandings and insights of urban novel ecosystems. Through this process, we distilled key questions for future research and practice that should drive the investigation of these wild ecosystems for improved decision-making. This study sets out recommendations on how to progress the research questions as part of urban transformative agendas in which urban novel ecosystems offer new possibilities for climate experimentation, social-ecological stewardship and biodiversity conservation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 103487"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142579113","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Narratives, expectations, and policy criteria for a democratic and socially engaging energy transition 民主和社会参与能源转型的叙事、期望和政策标准

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103496

Inês Campos , Miguel Brito , Stefan Pfenninger-Lee , Luís M. Fazendeiro , Guilherme Pontes Luz , Francesco Lombardi , Aías Lima , Cristina Madrid-López

{"title":"Narratives, expectations, and policy criteria for a democratic and socially engaging energy transition","authors":"Inês Campos , Miguel Brito , Stefan Pfenninger-Lee , Luís M. Fazendeiro , Guilherme Pontes Luz , Francesco Lombardi , Aías Lima , Cristina Madrid-López","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103496","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103496","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Energy transition policies can be translated into narratives about how energy systems should change (e.g., towards a centralised or decentralised system). These narratives tend to reflect expectations, priorities, and perceptions on feasibility and the social acceptability of different policy options, as well as long-term goals and trade-offs, all of which influence policy criteria. Taking as its case study Portugal and the implementation of European directives there, this study aims to characterise energy transition narratives (e.g. a swift transformation to renewables) and interrelated policy criteria (e.g., participation of local communities), focusing on expectations for a socially engaging and democratic energy transition. The analysis builds on the results of a Delphi survey with 10 expert stakeholders, a citizens’ survey (n=500), and a workshop with 19 participants. It identifies the most relevant criteria to stakeholders, as well as the importance of different underlying expectations, meanings, and attitudes shaping narratives about energy system futures. The findings indicate that criteria interrelated to narratives which highlight a promise of democratic energy governance may be less important for energy transition policies, and therefore undermine energy democracy goals. The conclusion highlights suggestions for policy and future research more likely to foster sociopolitical acceptance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 103496"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142560607","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Future cities' theories for sustainable future: A systematic literature review 未来城市的可持续未来理论：系统文献综述

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103494

Hussaen A.H. Kahachi , Maria Abreu , Mufeed Ehsan

{"title":"Future cities' theories for sustainable future: A systematic literature review","authors":"Hussaen A.H. Kahachi , Maria Abreu , Mufeed Ehsan","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103494","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103494","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent decades, sustainability has surged as a pivotal topic in academic discourse, driven by heightened global awareness of its critical role in addressing climate change, biodiversity loss, and social inequities. Consequently, cities and local authorities are increasingly prioritizing sustainability integration into urban development strategies. However, the realization of the 2015 Sustainable Development Goals faces challenges, with only 12–15 % of targets estimated to be met by the 2030 deadline. Scholars attribute this under-performance to the absence of a comprehensive approach to sustainable urban development. This study investigates the framework and mechanisms of mature future cities’ theories in achieving sustainability, focusing on sustainable urban development principles. Through a systematic review utilizing Natural Language Processing and statistical analysis of over 27,000 SCOPUS documents, the research evaluates 43 future cities’ theories from 1900 to 2023. Criteria such as comprehensiveness, consistency, empirical support, and applicability to sustainable development are analyzed. The study identifies mature theories like Smart City, Resilient City, and Sustainable City as promising avenues for sustainable urban development, albeit requiring refinement. The findings offer valuable insights to guide research and practice towards achieving sustainable urban development in cities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 103494"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142572922","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0