Futures最新文献

{"title":"Hoping for community in a technologically decelerated world - A critical utopian approach","authors":"Annekatrin Bock ,&nbsp;Felicitas Macgilchrist ,&nbsp;Kerstin Rabenstein ,&nbsp;Nadine Wagener-Böck","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103434","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103434","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Against the backdrop of technological acceleration during the Covid-19 pandemic, this paper addresses <em>how educational practitioners’ hopes articulate a critique of the present and simultaneously give voice to (im)possible futures</em>. Drawing on Bloch's \"principle of hope\" (1995), Appadurai's \"traces of future\" (2021) and Levitas’ \"utopia as method\" (2013), we utilize a critical utopian approach inspired by Muñoz (2009). We interviewed educational practitioners who worked with young people during the pandemic, and identify three themes articulating our interviewees’ hopes for technologically decelerated futures: 1) <em>young people’s participation</em> in decision-making, which is linked to the wish for more <em>visibility</em> for young people in the future; 2) <em>mutual care</em>, which is interwoven with the wish for support in young people’s lives to be more <em>reliable</em>; 3) <em>appreciation</em> for other groups, opinions and ways of life, which is linked to the wish for more future interpersonal <em>understanding</em>. These three themes point to an overarching desire for <em>solidarity in community</em> which needs time, occasions, role models and spaces of encounter. We discuss the priority of technologically decelerated hopes and conclude with implications for future research that brings together imaginations of futures, observations of practical action and designs for future artefacts.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"163 ","pages":"Article 103434"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724001174/pdfft?md5=b8eb972129794bdeb8679433fcb68f38&pid=1-s2.0-S0016328724001174-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141705463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From narratives to indicator-based future scenarios of urban mobility","authors":"Lashermes Colin ,&nbsp;Baudrit Cédric ,&nbsp;Curt Corinne ,&nbsp;Fernandez Christophe ,&nbsp;Taillandier Franck","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103431","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103431","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Scenario planning can be a useful tool for solving urban mobility challenges in cities while achieving sustainability goals. Scenario planning is particularly pertinent for policymakers as it can stimulate debates on different possible futures. The concept of sustainable urban mobility planning, promoted by the European Commission, is based on the principle of involving the public in the transport planning process. Including various stakeholders, all individuals, groups or organisations affected by a plan or project in the urban mobility system, such as the citizen, in the planning process can improve results and contribute to an overall understanding of the system and the views of other stakeholders. It is essential for stakeholders to interact with and participate in the creation of these scenarios. This article presents a method for formalising and evaluating prospective urban mobility scenarios. Our approach combines the strengths of both qualitative (narrative) and quantitative (indicators-based) methods. The result is a method that translates textual narratives created by stakeholders into indicators that can be easily understood. The method was applied to scenarios that were created through interviews and participatory workshops in the cities of Strasbourg and Aix-Marseille.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"162 ","pages":"Article 103431"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724001150/pdfft?md5=81ddbc00cf7d881fd639cbfe86d457e6&pid=1-s2.0-S0016328724001150-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141689664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The self-awareness of the forest","authors":"Jamie P. Monat","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103429","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103429","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Systems Thinking theorist J. P. Monat has hypothesized that human-level organismal self-awareness will emerge spontaneously in a well-connected neural network as the number of interconnected nodes exceeds ∼70 billion; he speculates that computer networks may achieve self-awareness as the number of nodes approaches this figure. Forests have historically not been perceived as interconnected networks of trees; recently however, researchers have described the “wood-wide web” in which underground fungi interconnect large numbers of trees and plants via chemical and electrical signals. Some of earth’s forests number many billions of trees, and some of the world’s prairies and seagrass meadows also contain billions of individual plants. These plant ecosystems may thus be self-aware, and in fact there may be a multitude of self-aware plant-based ecosystems on earth already. The speed of signal transmission via fungi within each ecosystem is much slower than that in humans, and therefore their organismal self-awareness may be of a different nature than the self-awareness that we associate with humans and upper primates. However, the possibility that our plant systems may be aware of the environmental insults that are being wrought upon them should make us reconsider our anthropocentric activities, as well as the possibility that humanity may need to collaborate with other intelligent non-human earth-based life forms to ensure mutual survival.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"163 ","pages":"Article 103429"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141716162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Transitions for zero carbon futures: From just to generous","authors":"Alvaro Castano Garcia","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103430","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2024.103430","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The ‘just transition’ concept has gained popularity in recent years and is being widely applied as a guiding concept within policy frameworks promoting low carbon transitions. Justice is at the heart of much of the policy rhetoric surrounding these transitions, favoured for the emphasis it places on fairness, equity and inclusivity. The use of justice as the guiding virtue for the transition has remained largely unquestioned. This paper examines the concept of just transition and experiments with positioning generosity as a guiding principle. It is argued that this may enable a more transformative, inclusive zero carbon future that prioritises wellbeing over mere survival. This does not seek to position a just transition and a generous transition in direct opposition to one another, instead intending to highlight how the concept of generosity might act as a catalyst for or complement to justice.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"162 ","pages":"Article 103430"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724001149/pdfft?md5=b2b9e8259bd7ffc2f0fa9d443d249118&pid=1-s2.0-S0016328724001149-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141594273","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Tomorrow let’s all be pangolins! Western affirmation of a relational ontology in thinking and acting for a multi-species future","authors":"Hélène Melin","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103427","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2024.103427","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>How should we envision the future of environmental justice in a context where the imbalances between part of humanity and other living beings seem irreversible and could compromise the survival of the majority? The scientific world and activist movements, both in the West and among indigenous peoples, are making their voices heard to denounce an industrial, productivist and extractivisit lifestyle that is predatory and incompatible with ensuring the well-being and intentionalities of all living beings. The ontological framework of the Anthropocene era seems to support this type of social relationship of domination. Indeed, naturalism puts humans as distinct from the rest of the animal kingdom and as having the right to use the different components of the environment as material resources. Due to the succession of environmental and social crises, whether worldwide or local, these power relationships need to be re-examined. The study of scientific results and observations from the last forty years, listening to people’s accounts of their attachments to their living environment, and the observation of new social and environmental movements all point to the emergence of hybrid ontologies that question naturalism, opening the door to the possibility of multi-species justice as an alternative to inequality.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"162 ","pages":"Article 103427"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141594272","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The dialectics of digitalisation: A critique of the modernistic imperative for the development of digital technology","authors":"Rikard Lindell","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103428","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103428","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This text discusses today’s digital transformation through the lens of Horkheimer and Adornos’ study of the enlightenment. Policy and public discourse around digitalisation embrace and adhere to the narrow tenets enlightenment thinking; the idea that rationality, individual freedom, and a society free from superstition are necessary and attainable goals. The costs of what has come to be called ‘Modernity’ are many. Through the application of rationality to all spheres of life, married with disruptive technological advancement, humanity has diminished its’ imagination – its ability to seek new directions. To paraphrase Horkheimer and Adorno, Modernism fights against nature, of which we are a part, and thus, paradoxically, sets us in a fight against ourselves. Environmental degradation, the price of progress, being just one example of this – deadening work, consumerism and severed social connections being amongst others. In this framing, digitalisation itself comes to be understood itself as akin to a force of nature – one that we can do little about, other than adjust and adapt or be swept away. But this by no means a foregone conclusion, there is light at the end of the optical fibre. Albeit that recent technical developments around artificial intelligence appears to be pushing policy makers into hasty decisions, the pace of the technical development is not as fast as we believe, and in comparison with the Reformation – we have time. If we can restrain ourselves from the resist, adapt or die responses promoted in popular discourse in face of the shock of large language models and rising threat of automation, then we create room to consider economic, social, and ecological alignment and accord, in the decision making and design of future interactive artefacts and digital services. The article argues that through postdigital aesthetics, technology makers can embrace materiality and the inherent qualities of digital technology to formulate a critique of existing trajectories in digital transformation, with consequences for a more sustainable future.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"162 ","pages":"Article 103428"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724001113/pdfft?md5=22d0700c3cbd09a78860cfb1f739c5a3&pid=1-s2.0-S0016328724001113-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141622781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The seeds of tomorrow: Investigating adolescent perception of the future with the Futures Consciousness scale for adolescents","authors":"Fanny Lalot ,&nbsp;Sanna Ahvenharju ,&nbsp;Peter C. Bishop","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103419","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2024.103419","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Futures Consciousness (FC) describes the human capacity to understand, anticipate, prepare for and embrace the future. Differences in FC between individuals (as a psychological construct) can be reliably measured quantitatively with the Futures Consciousness scale. However, the FC scale is only suitable for the adult population. Based on the contention that Futures Consciousness emerges at a younger age, we endeavour to develop and validate an adapted version of the FC scale that is suitable for adolescents (aged 11–18). This paper presents the statistical analyses that led to the validation of a 15-item instrument, the FC-Adolescent scale. Data from <em>N</em> = 1138 adolescents from five countries allowed us to validate the scale in four languages (English, Dutch, Italian, and Turkish) through a dual approach of confirmatory factor analyses and ant colony optimisation item-sampling procedure. The results show that the five-dimensional structure of FC also holds for adolescents and that it can be measured with the scale developed here. Interestingly, we found no correlation between FC and age in the range of 11–18 years old. We discuss implications for research and potential applications for educators and foresight practitioners.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"162 ","pages":"Article 103419"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724001022/pdfft?md5=bde9734e110fd5f768f8ce2a5e412ca4&pid=1-s2.0-S0016328724001022-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141483125","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mapping archetype scenarios across the three horizons","authors":"Andy Hines,&nbsp;Heather Benoit,&nbsp;Lavonne Leong,&nbsp;Denise Worrell,&nbsp;Laura Schlehuber,&nbsp;Adam Cowart","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103418","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2024.103418","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The purpose of this paper is to suggest that mapping of archetype scenarios onto the three horizons could provide a useful starting point for understanding change in a domain. It was observed in practice that the combination of a scenario archetype technique and the Three Horizons framework seemed to generate a useful pattern in the relative importance of the archetype scenarios according to the time horizon. In short, a baseline archetype seemed to be most prevalent in Horizon 1, either a Collapse or New Equilibrium archetype in Horizon 2, and a Transformation in H3. To test this idea, 78 historical scenario sets conducive to the archetype technique were identified, and the proposed pattern was tested against the how the domains actually unfolded over time. The results indeed suggested some evidence for the pattern. They also raised a series of interesting research questions for the futures community going forward.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"162 ","pages":"Article 103418"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141543535","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The dysgenics objection to longtermism","authors":"Bouke de Vries","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103417","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2024.103417","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Strong longtermism maintains that how we should act morally is determined almost entirely by the expected effects on the welfare of our descendants existing thousands if not millions of years into the future, who might include both other humans and any artificial agents with a comparable or higher moral status that we end up creating. It is based on three key assumptions: (i) that our descendants will have a moral status that is at least as high as ours and therefore should not have their welfare discounted by us; (ii) that there is a good chance that these individuals will vastly outnumber us; and (iii) that we can do things here and now that can be expected to positively shape the long-term trajectory of humanity. The aim of this contribution is to suggest that authors such as Will MacAskill and Hilary Greaves have been too optimistic about all these assumptions as a result of having ignored evidence that the populations of post-industrial countries are becoming less intelligent due mostly to the negative relationship that has emerged within these societies between intelligence and fertility and to the proclivity of intelligent people to delay parenthood.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"162 ","pages":"Article 103417"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724001009/pdfft?md5=3544f3c273a07f73004f04acbde9662f&pid=1-s2.0-S0016328724001009-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141543532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Rethinking planning and nature conservation through degrowth/ post-growth debates","authors":"Adile Arslan Avar ,&nbsp;Yağmur Özcan Cive","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103416","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103416","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Based on the critical debates in urban theory, political ecology and urban political ecology literature, this article interrogates the potentialities and limitations of degrowth/post-growth planning, regarding relational, non-dualistic and multi-scalar spatialization of nature conservation. It firstly reveals that pragmatic, technoscientific and “sustainable/ecological urbanism” and market-based nature conservation it incorporates exacerbate socio-ecological crises and socio-spatial inequalities in and beyond cities under the conditions of planetary urbanisation. Second, it interrogates how new market-based nature conservation turned into 'green-grabbing' and primitive accumulation. Having explored the degrowth or post-growth approach in relation to other radical nature conservation approaches (e.g., convivial conservation and global safety network), it interrogates the ways in which post-growth planning deals with socio-spatial aspects of nature conservation. It takes the “degrowth/ post-growth planning” both as an instrument to spatialize radical nature conservation and as an approach addressing socio-ecological injustices and inequalities intersecting at multiple scales. It concludes that the degrowth/ post-growth planning can overcome its limitations and advance its potentialities, drawing from already existing radical conservation and critical approaches in neighbouring disciplines as well as the discipline itself.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 103416"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141415108","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}