Futures最新文献_第10页

Exploring desired urban futures: the transformative potential of a nature-based approach 探索理想的城市未来：基于自然的方法的变革潜力

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-03-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103362

O. Bina , M.D. Baptista , M.M. Pereira , A. Inch , R. Falanga , V. Alegría , S. Caquimbo-Salazar , D.H.S. Duarte , G. Mercado , A.T. Valenta , A. Vásquez , T. Verellen

{"title":"Exploring desired urban futures: the transformative potential of a nature-based approach","authors":"O. Bina , M.D. Baptista , M.M. Pereira , A. Inch , R. Falanga , V. Alegría , S. Caquimbo-Salazar , D.H.S. Duarte , G. Mercado , A.T. Valenta , A. Vásquez , T. Verellen","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103362","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103362","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Amidst multiple crises and calls for transformative change, the demand to reassess human-nature relationships has increased. Rethinking the future of cities is vital in this process, yet positive urban visions prioritizing nature beyond human-centred perspectives are lacking. To address this gap, we propose a “nature-based desired futures” approach for envisaging and building collective discussion around transformative change. We explore four concepts underpinning (i) why such alternative urban futures are needed (human-nature disconnect and changing urban imaginaries) and (ii) how they might be approached (transformative change and leverage, and the ‘education of desire’). This provides the basis for a participatory approach that adapts the Three Horizon method to explore desired urban futures for nature in 2050. Six workshops involving 111 participants linked to ‘Conexus’, a project on nature-based solutions in European and Latin American cities, explored emerging desired futures, evolving ideas of nature, human-nature relationships, and agency. The approach offers space for reflection creative exploration, and weaving together of new, hopeful, caring, emancipatory stories. Its effectiveness hinges on the mutually reinforcing power of deep leverage, and of structural, systemic, and enabling approaches, to give purpose and direction to the exploration of desired futures.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"159 ","pages":"Article 103362"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724000454/pdfft?md5=4d4b07b8be3e95475b97aa4a98679aa5&pid=1-s2.0-S0016328724000454-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140275329","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Dynamic Living Space: Toward a society where people can live anywhere in 2050 动态生活空间：迈向 2050 年人们可以在任何地方生活的社会

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-03-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103363

Yuma Abe , Kento Yamada , Rina Tanaka , Kaori Ando , Makoto Ueno

{"title":"Dynamic Living Space: Toward a society where people can live anywhere in 2050","authors":"Yuma Abe , Kento Yamada , Rina Tanaka , Kaori Ando , Makoto Ueno","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103363","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103363","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Urbanization, characterized by a high concentration of population in cities, presents significant societal challenges. High population density, inadequate living conditions, and mental health problems underscore the need for innovative concepts to mitigate or reverse urbanization’s effects. This paper proposes Dynamic Living Space (DLS), a transformative concept aimed at decentralizing urban populations by extending city-like benefits to non-urban settlements. In the DLS, urban benefits are extended to sparsely populated or potentially uninhabitable regions, such as forests, mountains, and undersea areas. We created a normative scenario for the DLS by utilizing a multifaceted methodological approach, including expert interviews, group discussion, illustrated visualizing, and an international workshop. This research also outlines a roadmap for realizing the DLS by 2050 and discusses ethical, legal, and social issues and their solutions. By decentralizing urban benefits, the DLS concept could reduce the drawbacks of urban concentration, reduce infrastructure maintenance costs, and diversify areas of innovation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 103363"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724000466/pdfft?md5=b41739998e6dc6112e9f499ca7b0650d&pid=1-s2.0-S0016328724000466-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140199056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Making mutual learning tangible: Mixed-method Delphi as a tool for measuring the convergence of participants’ reciprocal understanding in transdisciplinary processes 让相互学习有形化：将德尔菲混合方法作为衡量跨学科进程中参与者相互理解趋同性的工具

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-03-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103365

Jannis Pfendtner-Heise , Adriana Ackerschott , Christoph Schwenck , Daniel J. Lang , Henrik von Wehrden

{"title":"Making mutual learning tangible: Mixed-method Delphi as a tool for measuring the convergence of participants’ reciprocal understanding in transdisciplinary processes","authors":"Jannis Pfendtner-Heise , Adriana Ackerschott , Christoph Schwenck , Daniel J. Lang , Henrik von Wehrden","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103365","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2024.103365","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper proposes an approach to capture mutual learning within transdisciplinary research to develop future-oriented sustainability solutions to land use conflicts. While quality criteria for transdisciplinary research projects are increasingly discussed, there is still ample methodological potential to enable and better understand mutual learning as a key component of transdisciplinarity. Changes in the specific developments of perceptions of the participants are difficult to be tamed and tracked. To address this shortcoming we propose to apply the Delphi method for longitudinal tracking of mutual learning within transdisciplinary research. We present the application of the methodological approach as part of a transdisciplinary project on sustainable land use in the district of Lüneburg (Lower-Saxony, Germany). Evaluation of semi-structured interviews with seven participants translated into a three-round Delphi survey. A concluding round of semi-structured interviews was performed to validate and deepen the findings. The results showcase that the Delphi method can facilitate the operationalization of the convergence of understandings as a relevant outcome of mutual learning within transdisciplinary projects.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"159 ","pages":"Article 103365"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001632872400048X/pdfft?md5=10d26984bb118a8c2acaa13fa55c7bf7&pid=1-s2.0-S001632872400048X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140187627","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Food system futures in Finland: How do experts evaluate changes in resilience up to 2030? 芬兰粮食系统的未来：专家如何评估 2030 年前复原力的变化？

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-03-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103364

Pasi Rikkonen, Karoliina Rimhanen, Kalle Aro

{"title":"Food system futures in Finland: How do experts evaluate changes in resilience up to 2030?","authors":"Pasi Rikkonen, Karoliina Rimhanen, Kalle Aro","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103364","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2024.103364","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Food security has received much attention since sudden shocks like Covid-19 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Resilience to sudden changes and disruptions is called for to maintain food availability in societies. In this study, potential disruptions and changes in the Finnish food system’s operating environment were evaluated. We focused on two future challenges: 1) what key disruptions will confront the food system until 2030; and 2) how will the Finnish food system change based on the experts’ views, and what measures will develop resilience up to 2030? We used the Delphi technique for data gathering. According to the results, the most significant shock at all three levels, national, EU, and global, was the disruptions caused by climate change (the increase in extreme climate and weather phenomena). An increase in the efficient recycling of nutrients was seen as most desirable, and an increase in the costs associated with recovery from disturbances and shocks was seen as most likely. Reducing inputs’ dependence on imports was seen as a key measure for developing resilience. Two constructed scenarios were presented, which highlight the determinants and uncertainties in the development of resilience in Finland.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"159 ","pages":"Article 103364"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724000478/pdfft?md5=8c17c315ff6323e8795447c28d4e44fe&pid=1-s2.0-S0016328724000478-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140180810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A forward-looking approach to climate change and the risk of societal collapse 应对气候变化和社会崩溃风险的前瞻性方法

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-03-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103361

Daniel Steel , Charly Phillips , Amanda Giang , Kian Mintz-Woo

引用次数: 0

Dare to imagine. Explorative scenarios for re-shaping human-nature relationships in an inner periphery in the Italian Apennines 大胆想象。重新塑造意大利亚平宁山脉内边缘地区人与自然关系的探索方案

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103358

Marco Mareggi , Luca Lazzarini

{"title":"Dare to imagine. Explorative scenarios for re-shaping human-nature relationships in an inner periphery in the Italian Apennines","authors":"Marco Mareggi , Luca Lazzarini","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103358","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2024.103358","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The article investigates the relationship between planning and future by presenting and discussing the application of the scenario-making approach to an inner periphery in the Italian Northern Appennine, the semi-abandoned village of Ebbio, in the province of Piacenza. Inner peripheries are commonly described as the territories that have “no future”, namely those where the idea of the future is most problematic due to socio-economic decline, marginalization, and demographic shrinkage. In particular, we present two explorative scenarios and discuss them comparatively, looking at their space and time declinations, and their capacity to shape different patterns of human-nature relationships. The two scenarios imagine the case study transformed, respectively, into an “agroecological village” in which food is interpreted as a key component in the creation of a new local economy based on agroecological practices, and into a “wild village” with the invasion of nature in the village according to a “more-than-human” perspective. Results highlight the relevance that the scenarios’ reflexive and dialogic construction can have for exploring possibilities about the future that were not previously considered by local institutions and civil society. Moreover, the scenario-making approach proved a relevant means to guide local communities to change their relationship with and perception toward nature, passing from a traditional view of “dominance” over natural resources and habitats, toward more balanced patterns of coexistence shaped by reciprocal socio-ecological relations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 103358"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724000417/pdfft?md5=c5a9b6905b625b4ddfda9d24900de89a&pid=1-s2.0-S0016328724000417-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140069329","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Public participation in futuring: A systematic literature review 未来民主化实践：未来设计中的公众参与文献综述

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-02-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103346

Laura Barendregt , Roy Bendor , Bregje F. van Eekelen

引用次数: 0

Enhancing the horizon scanning utility of futures-oriented systematic and scoping reviews 增强面向未来的系统性审查和范围界定审查的地平线扫描功能

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-02-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103340

Eray Arda Akartuna , Shane D. Johnson , Amy Thornton

{"title":"Enhancing the horizon scanning utility of futures-oriented systematic and scoping reviews","authors":"Eray Arda Akartuna , Shane D. Johnson , Amy Thornton","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103340","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103340","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We propose modifications for scoping (and by extension systematic) review methodologies to improve their contribution to horizon scanning exercises. As a means of systematically collecting, coding and synthesising literature, we argue that scoping reviews are ideal for conducting initial environmental scans of a topic of interest, trend analyses and scenario developments. To demonstrate this utility, this paper uses a futures-oriented scoping review of technology-enhanced money laundering and terrorist financing risks as an example. At the forefront of the proposed modifications is a quality assessment framework assessing reviewed publications for their <em>neutrality, evidence, relevance</em> and <em>clarity</em> (NERC). This proposed framework is not only ideal for appraising publications but also as an indication of likelihood, namely whether their discussed insights constitute possible, plausible or probable alternative futures. The validity of the NERC framework in achieving these aims is assessed successfully through statistical correlation tests. The overall aim of this paper is to motivate the proposed modifications, the NERC framework and (modified) scoping reviews more generally as a formidable tool for informing horizon scanning, decision-making and pre-emptive policy development.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 103340"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139956159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

What do we want from a sociology of the future?: Exploring the epistemological needs of an emerging field 未来社会学需要什么？探索新兴领域的认识论需求

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-02-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103349

Jordan McKenzie

{"title":"What do we want from a sociology of the future?: Exploring the epistemological needs of an emerging field","authors":"Jordan McKenzie","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103349","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103349","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The aim of this article is to examine the epistemological conditions of a sociology of the future. This article offers three conditions for a grounded sociology of the future: 1) It must be more than a study of utopia and dystopia, 2) It must be able to think of the future as <em>something</em> rather than <em>nothing</em>, 3) It requires an accessible understanding of time as it pertains to emotion, imagination and reason. There are already examples of successful future oriented sociology that satisfy these conditions, but the markers of a sociology of the future are often implicit rather than explicit. Together, these conditions are necessary to transcend the limitations of speculative futurism, while offering an alternative pathway to stagnation or reactionary thinking. Where Mark Fisher has described the slow cancellation of the future (2014), and Barbara Adam and Chris Groves have described a commodification and colonisation of the future (2007: 13), this article will investigate the topic of alienation as a means to ground the future in the everyday. This article is admittedly speculative and aims to bring generalist sociological readers into a futures discourse that can be applied in a vast range of research contexts.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 103349"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724000326/pdfft?md5=0d8ba4e7e4063cef01cbbf7d540e6508&pid=1-s2.0-S0016328724000326-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139956222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Visual Literacy as a tool to explore what lays behind and beyond our anticipations 将视觉扫盲作为一种工具，探索我们的预期背后和预期之外的东西

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-02-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103350

Vicky Karaiskou

引用次数: 0