Futures最新文献

{"title":"Bringing the future back to the present: The role of prefiguration in European climate justice activism","authors":"Fanny Lajarthe ,&nbsp;Lydie Laigle","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103384","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2024.103384","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Social movement scholarship has long attempted to apprehend the dynamic qualities of social movements. Considering the temporal embeddedness of social movement activities is essential because it leads to an understanding of continuity and change in the content and form of social movements in the long run. Because the past, the present, and the future are co-defined, more attention should be paid to the way different time frames shape one another. In this article, we focus our attention on the influence of visions of the future on present practices. Drawing on qualitative research mainly in Belgium, France, and Germany, we explore how projected climate-just futures influence the practices of grassroots climate justice organizations in the present. For this purpose, we center our analysis on a macro-level vision that depicts a climate-just world as a world where domination systems (aka. capitalism, colonialism, or patriarchy) have been replaced in order to let a more egalitarian society strive. We use the concept of prefiguration to illustrate how this vision transforms organizing and mobilizing activities. Such transformative effects are exemplified in attempts at developing an alternative organizational culture and building alliances with marginalized groups, with more or less success.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 103384"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140640962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"AI alignment: Assessing the global impact of recommender systems","authors":"Ljubisa Bojic","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103383","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2024.103383","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The recent growing concerns surrounding the pervasive adoption of generative AI can be traced back to the long-standing influence of AI algorithms that have predominantly served as content curators on large online platforms. These algorithms are used by online services and platforms to decide what content to show and in what order, and they can have a negative impact, including the spread of misinformation, social polarization, and echo chambers around important topics. Frances Haugen, a former Facebook employee turned whistleblower, has drawn significant public attention to this issue by revealing the company's alleged knowledge about the negative impacts of their own algorithms. Additionally, a recent initiative to ban TikTok as a threat to US national security indicates the influence of recommender systems. The objective of this study is threefold. The first goal is to provide an exhaustive evaluation of the profound worldwide influence exerted by algorithm-based recommendations. The second goal is to determine the degree of priority accorded by the scientific community to pivotal subjects in recommender systems discussions, such as misinformation, polarization, addiction, emotional contagion, privacy, and bias. Finally, the third goal is to assess whether the level of scientific research and discourse is commensurate with the significant impact these recommendation systems have globally. The research concludes the impact of recommender systems on society has been largely neglected by the scientific community, despite the fact that more than half of the world's population interacts with them on a daily basis. This becomes especially apparent when considering that algorithms exert influence not just on major societal issues but on every aspect of a user's online experience. The potential consequences for humanity are discussed, such as addiction to technology, weakening relations between humans, and the homogenizing effects on human minds. One possible direction to address the challenges posed by these algorithms is the application of algorithmic regulation to promote content diversity and facilitate democratic engagement, such as the tripartite solution which is elaborated upon in the conclusion. Therefore, future research should not only be centered around further evaluating influence of this technology, but also the analysis of how such systems can be regulated. A broader conversation among all stakeholders should be evoked on these potential approaches, aiming to align AI with societal values and enhance human well-being.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 103383"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724000661/pdfft?md5=3bd1b3019e1b306fc3d470c4b1032202&pid=1-s2.0-S0016328724000661-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140640961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How ChatGPT shapes the future labour market situation of software engineers: A Finnish Delphi study","authors":"Kathrin Komp-Leukkunen","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103382","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2024.103382","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>ChatGPT is changing our working lives, conjuring visions of revolutionary shifts ahead. ChatGPT is a chatbot based on generative artificial intelligence, which can, e.g., write computer code. This article explores how it might shape the future labour market situation of software engineers. A Delphi study with 14 experts was conducted in Finland. The first round identified possible futures, and the second round assessed their probabilities. Five scenarios prevailed: the unlikely scenario that the status quo persists; the ambivalent scenario that ChatGPT can replace software engineers to a large extent; the likely scenario that computer departments in startups embrace ChatGPT; the likely scenario that ChatGPT use proliferates among software engineers to increase productivity; and the highly likely scenario that ChatGPT makes computer programming accessible to the masses. Findings contradict previous discussions that technological advancements might take over especially routine tasks. ChatGPT can also take over non-routine tasks. Moreover, findings underline that digitalisation does not only bring about a choice between upskilling and employability loss, but also a democratisation of knowledge and expertise. Software engineers and companies might use the findings as an impetus for upskilling, while universities might feel nudged to incorporate ChatGPT more strongly into their curricula.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 103382"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001632872400065X/pdfft?md5=447dd2ab3529b91ca3a10e3550f7971a&pid=1-s2.0-S001632872400065X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140640959","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Energy co-operatives in Spain: The role of social enterprises in the energy transition","authors":"Benjamin Huybrechts ,&nbsp;Macarena Pérez-Suárez ,&nbsp;Mar Cobeña ,&nbsp;Isadora Sánchez-Torné","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103381","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2024.103381","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Decentralized and small-scale forms of organization are reappearing in Spanish’s energy system. Co-operatives have a social approach based on three dimensions: the purpose of the initiative, the form of organization and ownership, and embeddedness. In this paper, we apply this analytical framework to twelve energy co-operatives in Spain. These collectively owned organizations are energy-marketing communities, and they have specific objectives: These are an ecological objective (to reduce energy consumption and generate renewable energy) and a social objective (to propose an alternative to the reality of the energy market and citizen empowerment). Energy co-operatives in Spain have been typified as social enterprises, and these social enterprises have experience in common energy service, with which they may mark their future role in local energy communities. These results show the consolidation of energy co-operatives as a sign of the maturity of Spanish society in the face of energy challenges.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 103381"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140640960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Personal and collective future thought in times of uncertainty","authors":"Hadar Hazan ,&nbsp;Victoria Hui ,&nbsp;Christian S. Chan","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103380","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2024.103380","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Hong Kong's 2019 protests sparked public concern about the city's future. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between Hong Kong residents' personal futures (PF) and their perceptions of the city's collective future (CF), and how these views connect to well-being and career decisions. We surveyed 266 Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18–64. Our findings revealed a weak positive correlation between PF and CF, with PF being generally more positive. Stronger views on both PF and CF were linked to better well-being. Interestingly, positive PF (but not CF) predicted higher career decisiveness. Importantly, the strength of the PF/CF association was greater for those who strongly identified with Hong Kong. Our results suggest that even amidst social unrest, individuals may retain optimism about their personal futures while holding a less optimistic view of their city's collective future, and these views can influence career decision-making.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 103380"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140645351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Is there a universal limit to technological development? Evidences from astrobiology","authors":"Antonio Gelis-Filho","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103379","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2024.103379","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Considering the vastness of time and space, if one civilization — ours — has been able to advance technologically to the point of leaving its own planet, why technosignatures from other advanced extraterrestrial civilizations have never been identified? In this paper, I offer an explanation for that, developing an insight originally presented by Webb and others and using insights from astrobiology, sustainability and archaeology. I argue that there exists a universal limit to technological development (ULTD), determined by decreasing technological returns on societal complexity, increasing maintenance costs of existing technology, the eventual untestability of scientific theories due to the high costs involved and the unattainable energy levels needed to test them and civilization-damaging catastrophes. I also argue, based on the principle of mediocrity, that the ULTD is not much above our current level of technological development. Technology, therefore, will not be able to provide another home to humankind. Such a possibility should be taken into consideration during the decision-making process concerning both the allocation of resources to research or mitigation of technology-induced planetary changes and the definition of goals to space exploration.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"159 ","pages":"Article 103379"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140547031","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Gender gap and gender data gap in futures research: Focusing on the studies employing the Delphi technique","authors":"Hyerim Ahn ,&nbsp;Minyoung Choi ,&nbsp;Yongseok Seo","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103378","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2024.103378","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The gender gap in futures research, rooted in male dominance, results in limited visibility of female futurists and neglect of women's issues. This study focuses on the gender data gap as an indicator of the existing gender gap in futures research and analyze the literature employing the Delphi technique—a widely employed research method in this field. When societal gender gaps influence data collection and utilization, a gender data gap arises, leading to underrepresentation of women's perspectives and experiences. The Delphi method, operates on the principle of expertise, may inadvertently exclude women experts whose expertise tends to be underrecognized. Our analysis, based on Temin and Roca (2016)’s definition of gender data, shows the gender data gap in the futures research literature. The gender gap in futures research, demonstrated by gender data gap, not only colonizes women's futures, but also impedes the potential for planning, social decision-making, and policies aimed at fostering a gender-equitable future. Futures research holds the potential to serve as a tool for decolonization. To achieve a future free of gender disparities, it’s imperative to address issues directly relevant to women but also crucial for humanity as the main challenges of futures research and ensure women’s participation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"159 ","pages":"Article 103378"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140350133","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Human agency and the technoscientific dilemma: Contesting the role of technology in shaping our collective futures","authors":"Richard A. Slaughter","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103377","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103377","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The launch of ChatGPT created a tidal wave of interest, rapid uptake of the app and a surge of capital investment. It quickly became clear that what was now being called ‘generative AI’ would have multiple impacts and implications across the board. The paper begins by outlining aspects of the context from which these innovations arose. They include Neoliberalism and the ‘playbook’ of careless, ‘non-legal’ innovation that occurred during the early rise of social media platforms. The paper also critiques Silicon Valley, both for its one-sided culture and its obsession with marketing. It specifically draws attention to the characteristics and limitations of ‘technoscientific’ outlooks and the way they conceal, or edit out, key aspects of human existence. A summary of the attributes of technoscience suggests a number of possible responses. Behind these, however, is a widely ignored dilemma - the proposition that a continuation of further stages of high-tech innovation benefits the human enterprise. Yet many high-tech developments are unambiguously sociopathic. They project extreme danger and dysfunction out onto innocent people and unprepared social environments. The paper summarises recent attempts to come to terms with a radically transformed, technology saturated environment and concludes with suggestions for enhancing human agency.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 103377"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140759718","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unconditional basic income and a degrowth transition: Adding empirical rigour to radical visions","authors":"Nicholas Langridge","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103375","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2024.103375","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Unconditional basic income (UBI) is one of the most discussed policy options for a degrowth transition. Advocates highlight UBI’s theoretical potential to reduce unnecessary material consumption, alleviate poverty and redistribute social wealth, achieve wellbeing within ecological limits, shift activity from wage-labour to meaningful work, and facilitate increased social participation. However, UBI’s radical potential remains under-examined within the empirical research, which focuses more on the policy’s potential to increase the supply of wage-labour and stimulate economic growth. This paper aims to push back against this limiting trend. It begins by outlining some of the characteristics of more sustainable and just societies, based on post-growth perspectives, and outlines the arguments put forward to support UBI’s compatibility with a degrowth transition. It then demonstrates that, despite support from UBI and many post-growth scholars, such arguments are not mainstreamed in the contemporary empirical UBI research. The paper argues that this increases the risk of UBI being captured by capitalist interests. To avoid this outcome, the paper proposes an alternative research agenda to help assess and advance UBI’s radical potential in line with post-growth visions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"159 ","pages":"Article 103375"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724000594/pdfft?md5=0b0fd47228994219ec90747ffd420c5a&pid=1-s2.0-S0016328724000594-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140338908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Future ordinaries: Assembling place-based knowledges and literacies in real and imagined harmscapes","authors":"Anna Wilson ,&nbsp;George Robertson ,&nbsp;Jen Dickie","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103376","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2024.103376","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper explores the role of the everyday in real and imagined responses to climate-changed landscapes emerging from South African and UK-based activities in a project exploring local knowledges and resilience. We analyse photographs and captions created by co-researcher residents in three climate-stressed settlements in South Africa. We then use participant-generated stories created in the UK to explore imagined future landscapes. We demonstrate important commonalities between the real and the imagined, and between Global South and Global North, including three key dynamics to involved in responses to harmscapes of the present that also animate imagined futures: intra-community relations, the development of place and landscape literacies and adaptations. Our process reveals the centrality of the ordinary to both present realities and future imaginaries.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"159 ","pages":"Article 103376"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724000582/pdfft?md5=d815523adf869a196ddaa7e269ee55f9&pid=1-s2.0-S0016328724000582-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140338909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}