Using AI to model future societal instability

Abstract

This paper develops a model that aims to pinpoint the future structural constraints facing a number of countries and the instability that may result from these constraints. The model uses existing datasets and extrapolates major patterns several decades into the future based on past patterns. Contrary to predictions of looming crisis in certain states by Turchin and others, the argument is that a more likely scenario is an increasing inability to cope with the combination of fiscal constraints that limit state revenue in the face of rising social spending. The paper is based on a four-way comparison between the United States, Sweden, India and China. These four cases provide a wide range of possibilities for comparative-historical analysis and forecasting. In the most likely scenario, a shrinking working-age population leads to a spending crisis in China and to social tensions in other countries. The paper makes three contributions: the first is to offer an alternative to Turchin’s prediction of political crisis in the US and beyond. The second is to extend predictions for societal instability beyond rich Western countries. The third is to demonstrate how our model can be compared with Turchin’s using AI tools.