Futures最新文献_第4页

Using AI to model future societal instability

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103543

Fanqi Zeng , Grant Blank , Ralph Schroeder

{"title":"Using AI to model future societal instability","authors":"Fanqi Zeng , Grant Blank , Ralph Schroeder","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103543","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103543","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper develops a model that aims to pinpoint the future structural constraints facing a number of countries and the instability that may result from these constraints. The model uses existing datasets and extrapolates major patterns several decades into the future based on past patterns. Contrary to predictions of looming crisis in certain states by Turchin and others, the argument is that a more likely scenario is an increasing inability to cope with the combination of fiscal constraints that limit state revenue in the face of rising social spending. The paper is based on a four-way comparison between the United States, Sweden, India and China. These four cases provide a wide range of possibilities for comparative-historical analysis and forecasting. In the most likely scenario, a shrinking working-age population leads to a spending crisis in China and to social tensions in other countries. The paper makes three contributions: the first is to offer an alternative to Turchin’s prediction of political crisis in the US and beyond. The second is to extend predictions for societal instability beyond rich Western countries. The third is to demonstrate how our model can be compared with Turchin’s using AI tools.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"166 ","pages":"Article 103543"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143153769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Evaluation criteria for R&D adopting “imaginary future generations” — A deliberation experiment in an engineering company

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103542

Keishiro Hara , Yukari Fuchigami , Yutaka Nomaguchi , Tetsusei Kurashiki , Masahiro Eguchi

{"title":"Evaluation criteria for R&D adopting “imaginary future generations” — A deliberation experiment in an engineering company","authors":"Keishiro Hara , Yukari Fuchigami , Yutaka Nomaguchi , Tetsusei Kurashiki , Masahiro Eguchi","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103542","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103542","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate how the adoption of “imaginary future generations (IFGs),” a mechanism for activating futurabilty of people, influences the decision criteria and evaluation framework of a corporate R&D strategy. We conducted a debate experiment involving the employees of a water engineering company, in which the participants depicted the future state of society and the company’s business in the year 2050 and examined an R&D strategy for specific technologies. Text mining of the discussion content and results of a questionnaire survey administered to participants showed that compared to viewing the future from the perspective of current generations, an IFGs’ perspective evidently changed 1) the perception of the future state of society and business; and 2) the most important indicators used to examine an R&D strategy, and their relative weights. When the perspective of IFGs was adopted, indicators associated with the categories of “business & economy,” “differentiation with & relationships with other companies,” and “company policy and vision” were rated as less important to the R&D strategy, while the importance of the categories “technology development,” “environmental problems,” and “social issues & needs” increased. This study demonstrates that the adoption of the viewpoint of “futurability” can change the framework of technology evaluations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"166 ","pages":"Article 103542"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143153771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

“We’re already experts in school, right?”: Supporting students’ construction of future school scenarios

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103541

Neil Selwyn , Fareed Kaviani , Yolande Strengers , Kari Dahlgren , Bronwyn Cumbo , Markus Wagner

{"title":"“We’re already experts in school, right?”: Supporting students’ construction of future school scenarios","authors":"Neil Selwyn , Fareed Kaviani , Yolande Strengers , Kari Dahlgren , Bronwyn Cumbo , Markus Wagner","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103541","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103541","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent interest in education futures amongst policymakers and industry has been accompanied by acknowledgement of the need to better include the voices and views of diverse groups in the production of narratives around what future forms of schooling might look like. This paper explores the issues implicit in engaging school students in anticipating future forms of schooling. Drawing on empirical research with secondary school students (aged 12–14 years), the paper reflects on the strengths and limitations of engaging students in such futuring work. Rather than producing liberatory scenarios of radically different forms of education, the paper reflects on how students’ visions of the future school tended to anticipate the continued core structures of schooling, albeit shaped by changes in the mundane, everyday practices of education related to values of care, security and relationality. The paper also highlights the ways in which students’ uses of digital presentation tools, online content and generative AI tended to limit and flatten-out more imaginative and idiosyncratic futures thinking and instead lead to the replication of popular ‘future school’ tropes. It is concluded that student-produced ‘future school’ scenarios perhaps have most value as: (i) a means of working through what qualities, and (ii) characteristics of the existing school model might be usefully amplified, and as a basis for supporting students to work out forms of action that they might meaningfully engage in developing these aspects of their current school experiences.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"166 ","pages":"Article 103541"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143153140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Personas in scenario building: Integrating human-centred design methods in foresight

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103539

Lisa A. Pace , Carmen Bruno , Jan Oliver Schwarz

{"title":"Personas in scenario building: Integrating human-centred design methods in foresight","authors":"Lisa A. Pace , Carmen Bruno , Jan Oliver Schwarz","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103539","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103539","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper contributes to integrating human-centred design approaches in foresight. We emphasize design thinking as an approach that incorporates user-centred concepts and artefacts, enabling the creation and visualization of potential futures and mediating the exploration of new perspectives and areas of intervention for innovation. However, there is limited discussion in the foresight literature on the meaningful application of design approaches. We focus on the persona method and its roles and applications in scenario building. To be meaningful in scenario building, personas need to appropriately integrate users’ future needs, expectations and behaviours that shape and in turn are shaped by contexts that are yet to be realised. Based on an analysis of published case studies, the paper underscores the role of personas in fostering creative imagination, enhancing scenario engagement, and prospective sensemaking beyond their application as a storytelling vehicle in scenarios. We link persona characteristics and design to their roles in scenario building, allowing design and foresight practitioners the flexibility to tailor the persona approach to different contexts and critically assess the underlying limitations. From this, we provide recommendations for incorporating personas in scenario building and conclude with suggestions for future research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"166 ","pages":"Article 103539"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143153139","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The ethics of climate generosity and the “Median Commons”: An experimental future within complexity

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103516

Jonathan Paul Marshall

引用次数: 0

The human-AI dyad: Navigating the new frontier of entrepreneurial discourse

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103529

Faith Jeremiah

{"title":"The human-AI dyad: Navigating the new frontier of entrepreneurial discourse","authors":"Faith Jeremiah","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103529","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103529","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rapid progression of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is further solidifying the importance of redefining entrepreneurship and reshaping how ventures and innovations are conceived, developed, and managed. This paper investigates how AI is transforming entrepreneurship by reshaping traditional business paradigms and entrepreneurs’ roles. It examines AI's influence on entrepreneurial decision-making, innovation, and identity. Through a comprehensive literature review and thematic analysis of previously published data, the research identifies emergent themes in AI's integration into entrepreneurial discourse. The findings indicate that AI enhances operational efficiency and decision-making but challenges traditional notions of entrepreneurial identity and creativity. Furthermore, entrepreneurs increasingly depend on AI for data-driven insights, strategic foresight, and personalised customer interactions, reshaping business strategies and competitive landscapes. This article emphasises the importance of AI literacy and adaptive strategies for entrepreneurs to leverage the human-AI dyad effectively while maintaining values and ethics. It also highlights the significance of concentrating research efforts on entrepreneurs as they are the very cohort to shape new norms and pioneer new business models and innovations. Future research should explore AI's long-term impacts on entrepreneurial ecosystems, including psychological, ethical, and socio-cultural dimensions, with comparative studies across industries and regions providing further insights.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"166 ","pages":"Article 103529"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143153698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Ethical approaches for engaging extended peer communities: Insight into responsible workshopping with citizens

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103546

Jessica L. Fuller , Maiken Bjørkan , Lisbeth Iversen , Johanna M. Aarflot , Dorothy J. Dankel

{"title":"Ethical approaches for engaging extended peer communities: Insight into responsible workshopping with citizens","authors":"Jessica L. Fuller , Maiken Bjørkan , Lisbeth Iversen , Johanna M. Aarflot , Dorothy J. Dankel","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103546","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103546","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) represent the most ambitious and encompassing global framework for ecological, economic, and social sustainability for our planet to date. However, the relevance of the global goals to local actions remains elusive and opaque, which presents a real risk that society will be unable to adapt to growing environmental risks, such as climate change. Thus emerges the need for a responsible and ethical SDG localization process. We use a normative approach to engage a local extended peer community, which took the form of an interactive, day-long workshop. This paper describes how the T.R.U.S.T ethos of post-normal science is used to co-design and implement the workshop, which is then reviewed as a heuristic inquiry using the Three Spheres of Transformation framework for sustainability. The result of this workshop is a realization of the extended peer community that the interconnectedness of personal values, community values, and the SDGs can set a more coherent path for local collaboration across sectors. As such, this mode of using the T.R.U.S.T ethos of PNS and Three Spheres of Transformation frameworks in the SDG localization process represents an ethical approach in post-normal science.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"166 ","pages":"Article 103546"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143153772","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Studying long-term storage as material visions of the future

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103521

Valérie November , Catharina Landström

引用次数: 0

Cognitive mechanisms in foresight: A bridge between psychology and futures studies

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103547

Angela Faiella, Giovanni Emanuele Corazza

引用次数: 0

What futures for the Apennines? The anthropo-systemic value of mountainous inner areas