Futures最新文献_第5页

Island archaeology provides ecological and behavioral analogs for off-planet exploration and colonization

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103544

Thomas P. Leppard , Scott M. Fitzpatrick

引用次数: 0

Building sustainable futures through soft institutional interventions in the climate change context: An intergenerational experiment

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103531

Vittorio Guida, Klaudijo Klaser, Luigi Mittone

{"title":"Building sustainable futures through soft institutional interventions in the climate change context: An intergenerational experiment","authors":"Vittorio Guida, Klaudijo Klaser, Luigi Mittone","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103531","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103531","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Nowadays we are all aware of the deep and long-lasting negative impacts of climate change. However, our existence is inherently dominated by our present circumstances, which affect our ability to preserve environmental resources – essential to leave unaltered the opportunities of future generations. Therefore, there is a tension, and decisions considered optimal for us today may not be consistent with sustainability between generations. We investigate this context of intergenerational tension across three experimental manipulations that aim to represent just as many different narratives of the future. The data collected from 180 participants show that it is hard to achieve collective sustainable outcomes by means of mere individual actions with no support of institutional actors. Consistently with previous findings, our study contributes to the literature by offering interesting policy implications on how institutionalized agencies appointed to provide advisory intergenerational guidance can act as catalysts among economic agents (e.g., individuals, but also firms and organizations), helping to overcome short-termism and generate more sustainable futures. However, in contrast with previous experimental studies, we find support that institutional enforcement is not an indispensable feature for these agencies to achieve intergenerational sustainability. Instead, institutionalized agencies can effectively promote sustainable futures based on a soft intergenerational advice.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"166 ","pages":"Article 103531"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143153133","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Framing artistic practices through new materialism to ensure multispecies futuring in the built environment

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103532

Olivia T. Harre , Lea Holst Laursen , Hans Jørgen Andersen , Rike Neuhoff , Luca Simeone

{"title":"Framing artistic practices through new materialism to ensure multispecies futuring in the built environment","authors":"Olivia T. Harre , Lea Holst Laursen , Hans Jørgen Andersen , Rike Neuhoff , Luca Simeone","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103532","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103532","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the potential of applying new materialism as a frame for artistic practices to ensure multispecies perspectives in futuring initiatives. We present a case study examining artistic practices that unfolded adjacent to a construction site of an urban transformation project in Greater Copenhagen, where new residential homes are being built. As a counter-reaction to the continuous construction of new buildings without paying attention to the plurality inherent in places, our case explores how participatory, artistic, experiential, and creative formats can challenge our collective imaginations of the present and future. A growing number of researchers advocate for challenging the human-centered approaches employed in futuring and extending participation towards multispecies agency. New materialism is a theoretical and philosophical direction that foregrounds the need to consider the materiality of our world and how we, as humans, might account for our relations with nonhuman entities. By applying new materialism to artistic practices, we investigate if such practices can support multispecies futuring in the built environment. We conclude that artistic practices can 1) activate and direct attention towards the unusual in the built environment and 2) offer techniques for immersion and for shifting perspectives through anthropomorphism.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"166 ","pages":"Article 103532"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143153700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Provocation: A proactive strategy for anticipation and innovation

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103540

Amanda Cainelli, Raquel Janissek-Muniz

引用次数: 0

The Bot Delusion. Large language models and anticipated consequences for academics’ publication and citation behavior

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103537

Oliver Wieczorek , Isabel Steinhardt , Rebecca Schmidt , Sylvi Mauermeister , Christian Schneijderberg

引用次数: 0

Displaced futures or futures in displacement? Anticipations around the proposed High Grand Falls Dam in Kenya

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103530

Arne Rieber , Theo Aalders , Kenn Munene

{"title":"Displaced futures or futures in displacement? Anticipations around the proposed High Grand Falls Dam in Kenya","authors":"Arne Rieber , Theo Aalders , Kenn Munene","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103530","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103530","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>At COP27, the Kenyan and UK governments signed a climate finance agreement to accelerate the implementation of the High Grand Falls mega-dam on Tana River. Communities living near the dam site have been anticipating the dam construction since the post-independence era. The plans have been revived in the context of Kenya’s Vision 2030. In this article, we contribute to the literature on imagined futures and economies of anticipation by examining how potentially affected households navigate the state of uncertainty that is formed by threating images of displacement. The analysis highlights concerns about (non-)compensation and the vulnerability of households with insecure tenure arrangements in the context of infrastructure developments. We outline how the capacity to anticipate is a decisive factor in preparing for a future in displacement and how economies of anticipation emerge most notably around the land market. The article contributes to the concept of future-making in infrastructure studies. By presenting displacement as a multi-temporal process, we show how anticipated infrastructures have shaped and continue to shape the socio-economic developments of affected regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"166 ","pages":"Article 103530"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143153132","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Imagining alternative futures for the Dutch poultry industry

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103519

Britt Smulders, Rianne Valkenburg, Arjan Markus, Georges Romme

{"title":"Imagining alternative futures for the Dutch poultry industry","authors":"Britt Smulders, Rianne Valkenburg, Arjan Markus, Georges Romme","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103519","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103519","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In their quest for sustainable transformation, agricultural industries need to move beyond product and service innovation as well as rivalry between actors toward reconfiguring production and consumption systems. In mature industries like agriculture, envisioning alternatives that require systemic innovation is challenging due to the dominance of existing systems. This study constructs future images, as design tools, to expand the opportunity space for sustainable transformation. Focusing on the Dutch poultry industry, we conducted futures interviews to identify and structure drivers of change and use these to construct future images by identifying values-based themes. We constructed and visualized six coherent future images depicting alternative contexts for this industry: ‘zero-emission policy agenda,’ ‘farmers as entrepreneurial innovators,’ ‘collaborative ecosystem,’ ‘retail as an orchestrator,’ ‘happy animals, healthy humans,’ and ‘living labs in the knowledge economy.’ We discuss how these futures expand the opportunity space for novel production and consumption systems, drawing on distinct sustainability conceptualizations and different actors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"166 ","pages":"Article 103519"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143153696","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Technology assessment and postnormal science

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103515

Tom Børsen

{"title":"Technology assessment and postnormal science","authors":"Tom Børsen","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103515","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103515","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Since the 1970’ies, a central tool to convey policy advice on technological matters has been Technology Assessment (TA). Many different TA models exist, and this paper provides and overview of some important ones: Normal TA, Rational TA, Ethical TA, Hermeneutical TA, Participatory TA, and Constructivist TA. A central question investigated here is how existing TA models relate to Postnormal Science (PNS). The output is a comparison of how the presented TA models engage with PNS sensitivities that are translated into formats that support the comparison: Uncertainty management is translated into an outline of whether the TA models relate to existing, near or distant future technologies where uncertainties are typically low, medium low / high, or high. Decision stakes are translated into an overview of which stakeholder roles are invited into the TA process, and how the different TA models scaffold work across interests and perspectives through work in different forms of Extended peer communities. The comparison also addresses how ethics is attended in the TA-models. In conclusion the paper argues that it is not possible to link one TA model to PNS and to say that one TA model is postnormal. Postnormal TAs will be set up from case to case picking and collecting inspiration from different TA models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"166 ","pages":"Article 103515"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143153699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

“When values are in dispute”: Ethics dialogues to go beyond ethics frameworks?

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103545

Lucia Vesnic-Alujevic , Ângela Guimarães Pereira

{"title":"“When values are in dispute”: Ethics dialogues to go beyond ethics frameworks?","authors":"Lucia Vesnic-Alujevic , Ângela Guimarães Pereira","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103545","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103545","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article explores the concept of “ethics dialogues”, which was the methodological response the authors gave to existing expert-led ethics frameworks that examine technology in political institutions. The basic question that we wanted to tackle by opening up the discussion on ethical values embedded by technology and other everyday artefacts, was whether there is a need to extend values assessment to an “extended peer community”. Through 3 participatory cases studies that we conducted in the field of health (wearable sensors), mobility (connected and automated vehicles) and AI (insights obtained through a foresight study on the Future of Government 2030+) in the past 10 years, we realised that the invitation to dialogue has prompted critical thinking towards the values they embed in all cases. These ethics dialogues were implemented in different ways, but the core of the approach aims at imparting structured conversations about the technologies’ intended and actual uses (including dual), the promised usefulness implicit in the narratives that introduce those technologies and exploration of the values that the particular modes of life those technologies co-produce. For each case study, we will first describe implicit ethical values on the technologies’ narratives. We will then describe and report how these have been discussed by citizens to explore how and which values are portrayed by participants’ in the conversations. Finally, we reflect on the implications of implementation of ethics dialogues for participatory governance of future and emerging technologies and the possibilities of their inclusion in European policymaking as a way to negotiate decisions in a complex and uncertain world where <em>values</em> are recurrently <em>in dispute</em>.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"166 ","pages":"Article 103545"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143153776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Measuring the future: The youth HDI in Spain

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103533

Flavio Comim , Mihály Tamás Borsi , Octasiano Miguel Valerio Mendoza , Oliver Raab

引用次数: 0