IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-07-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103436

Martin Paul O’Connor , Jean-Marc Douguet

{"title":"Working deliberat(iv)ely with(in) wicked problems: The existential, epistemological and ethical nexus of imperfect knowledge","authors":"Martin Paul O’Connor , Jean-Marc Douguet","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103436","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103436","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Our problem is to express intertwined existential, epistemological and ethical aspects of a scientific method for informing action under conditions of high stakes and urgency. Addressing situations where, taking Descartes at his word, “…the pressure of things to be done does not allow us to stop and make a meticulous check,” we set out a framework for multi-actor multi-criteria deliberative evaluation for building knowledge partnerships within wicked problems of action. With the metaphor of Borges' Library of Babel, we suggest a cataloguing process whose effect is to signal, or assign, the Qualities of a knowledge proposition along several axes of the context of their mobilisation. The protagonists in a controversy are actors de facto in a KQA deliberation process, contributors (willy-nilly) to a collective resource of putative knowledge claims, participants in Borges' eternally-unfinished Congress of the World. Finally, with urgency and high stakes is associated the passage - repeated, traumatic, ineluctable - through dilemmas. These passages, irreducible to rationalisation, are often painful and always transformative. Adopting a third Borges metaphor, The Garden of Forking Paths, we argue for a reflexivity accepting the ethical complexity of our status as vulnerable actors engaged hastily, in necessarily value-laden terms, in matters of life-and-death.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724001198/pdfft?md5=a92f1873b69e22dfbe9f9e89ad6805c0&pid=1-s2.0-S0016328724001198-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141993291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Envisioning futures through decolonised tacit knowledge: The In, Out and On method 通过非殖民化隐性知识展望未来：进、出、上法

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-07-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103440

Camilo Soler Caicedo , Carolina Escobar-Tello

{"title":"Envisioning futures through decolonised tacit knowledge: The In, Out and On method","authors":"Camilo Soler Caicedo , Carolina Escobar-Tello","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103440","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103440","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper presents a method for future-building based on the journey we undertook as Design and Arts researchers in POR EL Páramo project (2021–2022) in our aim to bring closer the different actors involved in the Paramos (high Andean moorlands in Boyacá region, Colombia). We did this by understanding their everyday life better, and co-designing potential pathways towards holistic sustainable futures that serve the various communities’ needs. Through a series of social innovation workshops, we applied transdisciplinary approaches aimed at decolonising the methodologies used and its facilitation dynamics. The outcomes include our contribution to design and arts-based methodologies that aids continuity to the process of reflection: <em>In(ward)</em>, <em>Out(ward)</em> and <em>On(ward)</em>. In deploying this decolonisation-based methodology, a more powerful underlying principle came to light too: the use of arts mobilises forms of knowledge that are rather unconscious, but also extremely efficacious in generating proactive mindsets and generating bottom-up ideas. In this paper we build on and argue further, from an empirical perspective, for the utilisation of the <em>tacit knowledge</em> that can be transmitted through non-verbal means in social research dealing with contexts of conflict, reconciliation, and future building.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724001228/pdfft?md5=667266e34f65b7b2b76b5710e3a03955&pid=1-s2.0-S0016328724001228-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141935310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Exploring cultural futures: Dimensions of projectivity as a methodological lens for narrative analysis 探索文化未来：作为叙事分析方法透镜的投射性维度

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-07-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103445

Ulrike Ehgartner , Daniel Welch

{"title":"Exploring cultural futures: Dimensions of projectivity as a methodological lens for narrative analysis","authors":"Ulrike Ehgartner , Daniel Welch","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103445","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103445","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper discusses the applicability of the cultural sociologist Ann Mische’s (2009) nine “dimensions of projectivity”, or modes of orientation to the future, as methodological tools for narrative analysis to identify cultural formations of future orientation. Future orientation is understood here on the level of cultural regularities, rather than individual cognition. The paper discusses the exploratory process of operationalising Mische’s dimensions on texts produced by the volunteer panel of the Mass Observation Project (MOP) on the topic of ‘Futures of Consumption’. We explore how the difficulties encountered were addressed to utilise the dimensions for analysis. This exploratory process led to the classification of these dimensions into three categories, which specify their methodological utility. Firstly, literary components, suitable to analyse projectivity in professionally produced future narrations, such as corporate or NGO reports. Secondly, cognitive competences, suitable to study texts for the capacity for future thinking they demonstrate. And thirdly, formative orientations: the implicit, cultural repertoires from which actors construct their orientations to the future. The latter proved operationalizable in the analysis of the MOP data to identify cultural formations of future orientation. The paper provides a nuanced understanding of the application and utility of methodological tools for the study of future orientation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724001265/pdfft?md5=c70f2106db6f5a5a3d47dc6744eeb271&pid=1-s2.0-S0016328724001265-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142158087","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Desirable futures: Human-nature relationships in urban planning and design 理想的未来：城市规划和设计中的人与自然关系

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-07-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103444

Fabiano Lemes de Oliveira , Israa Mahmoud

{"title":"Desirable futures: Human-nature relationships in urban planning and design","authors":"Fabiano Lemes de Oliveira , Israa Mahmoud","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103444","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103444","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This article explores conceptualizations of future relationships between humans and nature in urban planning, introducing the special issue<span><span><sup>3</sup></span></span>. It initiates by examining how the future of human-nature relationships can be seen as a consequence of resilience, or lack thereof, to global challenges. The special issue explores distinct visions of what nature may mean in desirable futures, and its relations to humans. Preferable futures portray harmonious interactions between nature and humans, recognizing nature's intrinsic and relational values, as well as acknowledging its agency in the context of urban planning. Additionally, the evolving role of technology in shaping these desirable futures is a growing area of exploration, potentially challenging established definitions of nature and paving the way for the construction of new natures in prospective scenarios. Another facet of exploration is the spatial dimension of human-nature relationships. Articles investigate various contexts where these relationships may unfold, spanning from within cities to envisioning revised approaches at the urban-rural interface for a radical transformation of our connection to the natural world, including the consideration of distinct entities, such as mountains or non-urban territories, as potential focal points for evolving human-nature relationships. The special issue helps deepen our understanding of the intricate interplay between humans and nature in urban planning, exploring diverse visions of the future and the spatial dynamics where these relationships may manifest. By integrating these elements, the aim is to contribute to a more comprehensive and forward-thinking approach in urban planning that embraces sustainable and harmonious futures for both humans and the natural world.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724001289/pdfft?md5=da4e879b544b95c1af364fdcbd002fd9&pid=1-s2.0-S0016328724001289-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141935266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How universities study the future: A critical view 大学如何研究未来？批判性视角

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-07-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103439

Reza Hafezi , Sara Ghaboulian Zare , Firouzeh Rosa Taghikhah , Saeed Roshani

{"title":"How universities study the future: A critical view","authors":"Reza Hafezi , Sara Ghaboulian Zare , Firouzeh Rosa Taghikhah , Saeed Roshani","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103439","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103439","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Despite recent rapid advances in technology, a skilled workforce continues to play the most important role in the development of national economies. People’s roles as operators, managers, or innovators are rapidly evolving to meet changing social needs. Traditionally, universities and higher education (HE) systems have been responsible for supplying the required knowledge and human resources. However, in the modern world, the nature of these needs is constantly changing, and uncertainties are dominating the socioeconomic future. To address this need, many researchers have attempted to explore how HE can cope with future uncertainties and evolve as a social system, yet there is no comprehensive analysis of methodological guidelines that provide insights into how to develop HE future scenarios. To fill this gap, this research takes a deep literature review approach, conducted by the authors, to examine published and peer-reviewed studies in the area of HE scenario planning over the decade from January 2010 to 2023. This study investigates the exploration of plausible futures by research teams at three levels - global/international, regional/national, and local/university. The findings show that there is a lack of foresight knowledge, which increases the risk of failure exponentially over time. To address these shortcomings, this study proposes a framework for future studies, including environmental factors that will impact higher education and methodological recommendations to equip researchers for the challenges ahead. It also emphasizes the need to appreciate the complexity of HE systems and the role of wildcards and weak signals in shaping future disruptive trends. This research offers valuable guidance to researchers seeking to engage in scenario development for HE in the face of uncertainty.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141848918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A critical utopian shared socioeconomic pathway 关键的乌托邦式共享社会经济路径

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103437

C. Brudin Borg , A. Skelton

{"title":"A critical utopian shared socioeconomic pathway","authors":"C. Brudin Borg , A. Skelton","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103437","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103437","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The aim of this study is to investigate the utility of speculative, fictional utopian narratives to be used as a comparative and critical tool to expose taken for granted ideas, discourses and norms in the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1–5) that are used by the IPCC to build future scenarios. To achieve this goal, we first invited citizens to write stories about fictional utopian futures, which they perceived as good for “both people and the planet”. We then compared these utopian stories with the SSPs by (1) a semi-quantitative thematic analysis, and (2) a critical literary analysis. Based on the thematic analysis, we found strong similarities between the utopian futures and SSP1 (“Taking the Green Road”) at a superficial level. Based on the literary analysis, we found that this apparent similarity obscured fundamental differences between the implicit mindsets that was found in SSP1 and the utopian futures; with the former underpinned by collective anthropocentrism and the latter by collective ecocentrism. We conclude that speculative utopias, that are not bound by the requirement of perceived plausibility, can provide a powerful tool to scrutinize and extend science-based future scenarios, such as the SSPs, to consider other aspects, such as different mindsets and norm-breaking solutions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724001204/pdfft?md5=c1d591a31dbeff461d388714997e1c80&pid=1-s2.0-S0016328724001204-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141851132","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

When the past meets the future: Latin American Indigenous futures, transitional justice and global energy governance 当过去与未来相遇：拉丁美洲土著未来、过渡时期司法和全球能源治理

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-07-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103438

Suanne Mistel Segovia-Tzompa , Immaculata Casimero , Marisol García Apagüeño

{"title":"When the past meets the future: Latin American Indigenous futures, transitional justice and global energy governance","authors":"Suanne Mistel Segovia-Tzompa , Immaculata Casimero , Marisol García Apagüeño","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103438","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103438","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This article proposes a transitional energy justice framework to analyse a \"green\" transition and offers recommendations to transform the realities of the lives of Indigenous Peoples in Latin America. We share our perspectives as <em>mestiza</em>, Wapichan and Kichwa women through narratives. In the discussion, we compare previous research on environmental and energy justice to identify the ways in which global energy governance can implement fairer and more equitable projects in the future, such as respect for land tenure and more-than-human beings. Additionally, temporality and relationality act as tools for global energy governance institutions. Temporality in transitional energy justice has to do with healing historical violence across generations, whereas relationality means building respectful relationships with each involved Indigenous community. The article concludes by providing policy recommendations that emphasise strengthening local governance – deep engagement of state and non-state actors with each community – along with international policy-making to prevent energy-related negative externalities and legislation to facilitate Indigenous self-determination to build their futures.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724001216/pdfft?md5=b2e7c8ad635b5c93bbc1c9e9db5ed1f6&pid=1-s2.0-S0016328724001216-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141845114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Desirable futures: Perspectives of Joola fisherwomen in Casamance, Senegal 理想的未来：塞内加尔卡萨芒斯 Joola 女渔民的观点

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-07-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103435

Marie-Christine Cormier-Salem

{"title":"Desirable futures: Perspectives of Joola fisherwomen in Casamance, Senegal","authors":"Marie-Christine Cormier-Salem","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103435","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103435","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Since the Rio Convention in 1992, there has been a strong political and ethical imperative to link biodiversity conservation and equity and to promote gender-sensitive policies. However, there has also been a huge gap between these global injunctions and local actions. Mangrove conservation policy is a good illustration of \"nature grabbing,\" which leads to environmental violence. This paper explores the perspectives of the fisherwomen who inhabit the mangroves. It analyzes their struggle to maintain control over mangrove resources and spaces in the face of private or public forces seeking to commodify them in the name of conservation. Based on a corpus of ethnographic data collected over more than 40 years, the paper focuses on the narratives of the oyster fisherwomen in Basse-Casamance, Senegal. It highlights their individual, family, and collective strategies in three time periods: the 1980s, the 2000s and the 020s, demonstrating their resistance over time, defensively or offensively, to the consequences of globalization. The paper shows the ability of the women to preserve their heritage and empower themselves, notably thanks to their self-organization and mutual support. The paper concludes with the scientific uncertainties regarding mangrove dynamics and the conflictual visions on the future of the mangrove socio-ecosystem at diverse scales.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328724001186/pdfft?md5=5d203fc60e715b11c351942294f07da6&pid=1-s2.0-S0016328724001186-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141715022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Climate change, uncertainty, and global catastrophic risk 气候变化、不确定性和全球灾难性风险

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-07-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103432

Seth D. Baum

引用次数: 0

”Your research or my tinkering won’t help”: On (the lack of) Climate Adaptation Imaginaries in the Swedish Arctic "你的研究或我的修补都无济于事"：关于瑞典北极地区（缺乏）气候适应的想象力

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2024-07-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103433

G.C.S. Kanarp

{"title":"”Your research or my tinkering won’t help”: On (the lack of) Climate Adaptation Imaginaries in the Swedish Arctic","authors":"G.C.S. Kanarp","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103433","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103433","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Developing ‘Climate Adaptation Imaginaries’, this paper explores visions of futures in relation to climate change and adaptation in the Swedish Arctic, a region where climatic changes are rapid and pronounced. The analysis draws on interviews with civil servants working with adaptation, fieldwork in the region of Norrbotten in Sweden, and relevant documents. The analysis focuses on future visions and whether, and how, they incorporate adaptation to the climate crisis as a strategy to achieve the vision. Particular focus is given to how adaptation is understood in terms of approach (reactive vs. proactive), aim (incremental vs. transformational) and focus (direct effects, or whether transboundary effects are included). Four different kinds of visions emerge in the material: economic growth coupled with a reactive approach; ‘green’ economic growth with proactive and incremental adaptation; a transformed locally anchored and regenerative society; and finally, a range of dystopia(s). It is only the two visions based on economic growth that are collectively held, materially embedded and hold political influence in the region. A variety of dystopias emerge as the main alternative presented by civil servants. This leaves adaptation guided by at best proactive, incremental and short-term focused strategies, and at worst driven by disparate dystopic visions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141697573","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Futures最新文献