IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-02-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103566

Richard A. Rosen

{"title":"Problems with creating useful scientifically valid futures scenarios","authors":"Richard A. Rosen","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103566","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103566","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Attempting to do “Futures” research is beset with many scientific and mathematical problems. One major question is what does it really mean to develop useful scenarios for the future to help one understand the likely impact of key policy issues that a researcher wants to address? And if it is hard to create a believable projection for the relevant system to be studied in a “business-as-usual” scenario, is creating other types of Futures scenarios any more likely to be scientifically valid for doing policy research? Furthermore, what kinds of alternative Futures scenarios make sense to create, and how should the methodologies used to create them depend on the policy issues being addressed? This paper will attempt to address these questions in the context of what doing good science, the key ingredient, implies for doing useful futures research.</div><div>Another more technical issue which besets the creation of Futures scenarios is the question of to what extent can statistical methodologies be scientifically valid in their creation, and how are statistical methodologies often misused in doing futures research? Finally, the key issue of how one can make each scenario of the future internally consistent and plausible, if one can, is addressed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"167 ","pages":"Article 103566"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143437305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Mapping the use of emerging technologies within the public sector across the EU: The case of Public Sector Tech Watch 绘制新兴技术在整个欧盟公共部门的使用：以公共部门技术观察为例

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-02-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103564

Michele Veneziano, Carolina Gerli

{"title":"Mapping the use of emerging technologies within the public sector across the EU: The case of Public Sector Tech Watch","authors":"Michele Veneziano, Carolina Gerli","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103564","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103564","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Public organizations across the EU are integrating emergent technologies, but information on these applications remains scarce. The European Commission's Public Sector Tech Watch (PSTW) is the first observatory that monitors the use of emerging technologies in public organizations consolidating this information into a single repository. The PSTW, established in 2023, aims to be the central hub for stakeholders interested in the latest technological advancements for improving public sector services. This research uses PSTW as a case study to explore the evolution of mapping emerging technologies as an anticipatory practice in the public sector. Using Schatzkian practice theory, the study analyzes changes in activities, material arrangements, and organizing elements through interviews, observations, and document reviews. Findings reveal that expectations have become central, shaping both the evaluation of public value and the narratives in PSTW outputs. These developments suggest that the PSTW is progressively transforming into an anticipatory knowledge hub. Key drivers of this transformation are repository expansion, community-building initiatives, and alignment with broader EU digital policies. Our paper contributes to the literature on anticipatory practices by offering a longitudinal perspective, delving into the evolutionary process of the practice, and emphasizing the critical role of mapping practices in shaping expectations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"167 ","pages":"Article 103564"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143437306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Future of food: A technology-centered path towards sustainable production in 2100 食品的未来：2100年以技术为中心的可持续生产之路

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-02-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103565

Karim Jebari , Emma Engström

{"title":"Future of food: A technology-centered path towards sustainable production in 2100","authors":"Karim Jebari , Emma Engström","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103565","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103565","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We stipulate a normatively desirable scenario for food production in 2100 and formulate a specific technology-centered path to reach it. In this scenario, the human population has increased following mainstream projections and food consumption patterns remain similar to current ones, while impacts on land systems, the biosphere, freshwater use, and eutrophying emissions from food production are substantially reduced (by more than 25 %). We divide the global diet into three categories: fruits and vegetables, grains, and animal products, which together represent 88 % of the food consumed currently. In each category, we select one technology with potential to contribute substantially to the desirable scenario: vertical farming for fruits and vegetables; genetically modified (GM) crops for improved photosynthesis of grains; and realistic plant- and microbe-based substitutes for animal products. Assuming widespread adoption of these technologies in 2100, we project that the area of farmland used, the amount of eutrophying emissions, and the freshwater used would decrease by 54 %, 46 %, and 32 %, respectively. We discuss adoption challenges and suggest policies for the implementation of these technologies, finding that increased public acceptance of alternatives to animal products and GM crops are crucial. Also, abundant access to affordable fossil-free energy is a prerequisite for two of the three recommended innovations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"167 ","pages":"Article 103565"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143454074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Co-creating climate future pathways for northwestern Ghana: The use of the Three Horizons framework 为加纳西北部共同创造气候未来之路：三个地平线框架的应用

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-02-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103567

Charity Osei-Amponsah , Ibrahim Abu Abdulai

{"title":"Co-creating climate future pathways for northwestern Ghana: The use of the Three Horizons framework","authors":"Charity Osei-Amponsah , Ibrahim Abu Abdulai","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103567","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103567","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The impacts of climate change affect all social groups, even if not to the same extent. However, increasingly the interests and perspectives of some vulnerable groups (e.g. school children, traditional leaders, women groups, and smallholder farmers), especially at the sub-national level, are often not captured and prioritised in designing climate resilience interventions. This study addresses the question of how assembling relevant stakeholders and providing a ‘safe space’ for effective communication helps in the co-creation of solution pathways that reflect their priorities for impactful development planning. We used qualitative data from 57 stakeholders in northwestern Ghana brought together in a one-and-half-day workshop to co-identify current signs of the climate crisis and imagine desirable climate future pathway using the Three Horizons (3 H) framework. Data were analysed using thematic analysis. Applying the 3 H framework along with a scenario building exercise proofed a useful approach to collaborative sharing of ideas and perspectives on climate change and resilience planning. Bringing different stakeholders together enables the effective visioning of their desired future, and to co-identify the pathways to achieving it. Thus, the 3 H framework, when integrated into climate resilience planning, enables vulnerable social groups to think creatively about positive transformative change. We recommend that the 3 H framework should be integral to planning of climate resilience interventions at the national and subnational levels.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"167 ","pages":"Article 103567"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143445863","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Strategic insights from simulation gaming of AI race dynamics 人工智能竞赛动态模拟游戏的战略见解

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-02-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103563

Ross Gruetzemacher , Shahar Avin , James Fox , Alexander K. Saeri

{"title":"Strategic insights from simulation gaming of AI race dynamics","authors":"Ross Gruetzemacher , Shahar Avin , James Fox , Alexander K. Saeri","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103563","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103563","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We present insights from `Intelligence Rising’, a scenario exploration exercise about possible AI futures. Drawing on the experiences of facilitators who have overseen 43 games over a four-year period, we illuminate recurring patterns, strategies, and decision-making processes observed during gameplay. Our analysis reveals key strategic considerations about AI development trajectories in this simulated environment, including: the destabilising effects of AI races, the crucial role of international cooperation in mitigating catastrophic risks, the challenges of aligning corporate and national interests, and the potential for rapid, transformative change in AI capabilities. We highlight places where we believe the game has been effective in exposing participants to the complexities and uncertainties inherent in AI governance. Key recurring gameplay themes include the emergence of international agreements, challenges to the robustness of such agreements, the critical role of cybersecurity in AI development, and the potential for unexpected crises to dramatically alter AI trajectories. By documenting these insights, we aim to provide valuable foresight for policymakers, industry leaders, and researchers navigating the complex landscape of AI development and governance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"167 ","pages":"Article 103563"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143474465","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

State imperatives and hopeful futures in outside lobbying campaigns: A case study on sunsetting industries in Finland 外部游说活动中的国家要求和充满希望的未来：芬兰夕阳产业的案例研究

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103561

Hanna Lempinen

{"title":"State imperatives and hopeful futures in outside lobbying campaigns: A case study on sunsetting industries in Finland","authors":"Hanna Lempinen","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103561","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103561","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The demands for a just and green transition towards more sustainable use of natural resources—both renewable and nonrenewable, living and non-living—are shaping the prospects of local and traditional livelihoods worldwide. While “green” sustainability transitions are expected to create new livelihoods and economies, others are bound to decline or disappear. This article focuses on Finland and its two traditional rural industries—fur farming and peat extraction—whose phase-out is either ongoing or under debate due to various sustainability concerns. Through an analysis of industry lobbying campaigns, I demonstrate how these industries frame themselves as instrumental in fulfilling core state imperatives, including domestic order, external competition, revenue generation, economic growth, legitimation, and environmental conservation. As such, they present themselves as fundamental to the future of the Finnish state, its unique sociocultural characteristics, and its contested welfare society. The article concludes with a discussion on the harmful hopes that these industry lobbying campaigns provoke among both audiences and livelihood practitioners in the face of inevitable sustainability transitions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"167 ","pages":"Article 103561"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143402845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Future images of youth on food systems transformation– study with the Finnish high school students 未来青年对粮食系统转型的看法——与芬兰高中生一起研究

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103568

Minna Kaljonen , Vilja Varho , Kirsi Sonck-Rautio , Roosa Ritola , Anni Savikurki

{"title":"Future images of youth on food systems transformation– study with the Finnish high school students","authors":"Minna Kaljonen , Vilja Varho , Kirsi Sonck-Rautio , Roosa Ritola , Anni Savikurki","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103568","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103568","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Although youth have been recognized as an increasingly important group in sustainable development, their participation in the existing practices of food policy and societal decision-making is still limited. This paper analyses future images of youth to better understand how young people assess future trajectories of food systems, and what they see important in terms of sustainability. The future images were collected as essays from 123 high school students from Finland. The results comprise of six different future images: BAU+ , conscious consumer, back to the roots, strict regulation, technology solves sustainability problems and food for survival. The future images of youth question the continued growth narrative by emphasizing technological transformation, consumer responsibility and local food systems as solutions to sustainability problems. Dystopian image is also present in the future images of youth, calling attention to issues worth saving in our current food systems. The exploration of the future images of youth contributes to the Dator’s future typology contextualizing them to the food systems. The results point towards strengthening of futures literacy both in food policy and in education. Futures literacy is needed to act upon challenges faced in a more inclusive manner, whilst building agency in the meantime.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"167 ","pages":"Article 103568"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143422510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Editorial to the special issue ‘Environmental Justice Futures’ By Céline Granjou, Valérie Deldrève and Devleena Ghosh 《环境正义的未来》特刊社论，作者：cameline Granjou， valsamrie deldr<e:1>和Devleena Ghosh

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103518

Céline Granjou, Valérie Deldrève, Devleena Ghosh

引用次数: 0

On the present-future impact of AI technologies on personnel selection and the exponential increase in meta-algorithmic judgments 关于人工智能技术对人员选择的影响和元算法判断的指数增长

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103538

Lambros Roumbanis

{"title":"On the present-future impact of AI technologies on personnel selection and the exponential increase in meta-algorithmic judgments","authors":"Lambros Roumbanis","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103538","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2025.103538","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The ongoing implementation of new AI technologies in both public and private organizations has already had a great impact on professional judgment and decision-making processes. For many experts working with people’s applications tied to, e.g., welfare services, employment, school admission, parole, and insurance, algorithm-based decision assistance has already changed the way they perform their assessments. Yet we are still in what seems to be the early stages of this socio-technological transformation. Based on interviews with twenty-four expert recruiters, the purpose of the study is to explore their professional views and expectations concerning the present-future impact of AI on personnel selection. The study seeks to shed new light on the exponential increase in meta-algorithmic judgments, a concept that pinpoints the fact that many experts today must handle algorithmic assessments before moving forward in the decision-making process. What do the respondents think has motivated this socio-technological change, and what do they expect will happen to the role of human judgment in the future? The analysis suggests that the seemingly inevitable existence of human biases and the lack of efficiency in traditional recruitment are, according to all respondents, the main reasons why AI should be used, given its promise to improve both fairness and time management. While AI recruitment systems will most likely become increasingly sophisticated, most respondents thought that these systems would nevertheless never be able to fully replace human judgment. However, a handful of respondents deviated from this majority view by instead expecting that AI would take over the whole process in the not-too-distant future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"166 ","pages":"Article 103538"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143153137","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Caring for technologies, caring for Country 关心技术，关心国家

IF 3 3区管理学

Futures Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103535

Anna Cain

{"title":"Caring for technologies, caring for Country","authors":"Anna Cain","doi":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103535","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.futures.2024.103535","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Care is an emerging theoretical tool supporting analysis of socioecological equity impacts as energy systems are transformed to support more sustainable futures. Derived from feminist critiques of rationalist, market-led approaches, energy scholars use care to draw attention to the matters of care that are counted into energy system transitions and the care labour required to realise these transitions. Less attention has been applied to non-Western concepts of care and how they might provide alternative futures through energy. This paper draws on Tronto’s (2013) phases of care framework to investigate how care shapes, flows through and is enabled by renewable energy programs in remote Indigenous communities in Australia. Using data collected through multi-sited project ethnography, this analysis considers how care is defined and built into energy program design and implementation. Interrogating these care logics illustrates the importance of prioritising sociocultural alongside technical forms of care. Understanding energy in this way offers insights into the role of energy in underpinning Indigenous futures, by supporting Indigenous ontological imperatives to exist in and care for Country, as well as insights into what it means to care at scale with energy through sustainability transitions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48239,"journal":{"name":"Futures","volume":"166 ","pages":"Article 103535"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143153138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

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