Principles for building a culture of organizational foresight

Abstract

There is growing interest in developing foresight cultures within international organizations. This reflection on the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) approach focuses on a critical 18-month chapter of an ongoing initiative called the Foresight Trajectory. It begins with the premise that organizations are complex adaptive systems, foresight is driven by its potential value, and anticipation is a social phenomenon. The paper proposes principles for cultivating a culture of organizational foresight based on a methodological reflection of the UNEP Foresight Trajectory. This process applied three sets of Reflection Questions across six project phases, generating key insights that inform principles for cultivating foresight within the organization. The questions addressed contexts, relevance perceptions, and modes of anticipation. Three main insights emerged: the foresight process was dynamic and adaptive; the process itself was meaningful to stakeholders as a driver of foresight culture formation; and UNEP, along with other international entities, is uniquely positioned to convene multi-perspective and global foresight processes. Based on these insights, seven Foresight Principles are proposed to guide UNEP and other international entities in engaging stakeholders in foresight to explore new ideas, prepare for uncertainty, build a foresight community, stay flexible and reflexive, communicate openly while respecting stakeholder needs, and foster diverse perspectives to spark immediate thinking and action. This reflection aims to contribute to the development of a foresight culture at UNEP and offer useful insights for other UN entities and beyond.