Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management最新文献

{"title":"Evaluating the Performance of Agreement Metrics in a Delphi Study on Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Major Incidents Preparedness Using Classical and Machine Learning Approaches","authors":"Hassan Farhat,&nbsp;Alan M. Batt,&nbsp;Mariana Helou,&nbsp;Heejun Shin,&nbsp;James Laughton,&nbsp;Carolyn Dumbeck,&nbsp;Arezoo Dehghani,&nbsp;Fatemeh Rezaei,&nbsp;Nidaa Bajow,&nbsp;Luc Mortelmans,&nbsp;Walid Abougalala,&nbsp;Roberto Mugavero,&nbsp;Gregory Ciottone,&nbsp;Guillaume Alinier,&nbsp;Mohamed Ben Dhiab","doi":"10.1111/1468-5973.70044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.70044","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Delphi studies in disaster medicine lack consensus on expert agreement metrics. This study examined various metrics using a Delphi study on chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) preparedness in the Middle East and North Africa region. Forty international disaster medicine experts evaluated 133 items across ten CBRN Preparedness Assessment Tool themes using a 5-point Likert scale. Agreement was measured using Kendall's W, Intraclass Correlation Coefficient, and Cohen's Kappa. Statistical and machine learning techniques compared metric performance. The overall agreement mean score was 4.91 ± 0.71, with 89.21% average agreement. Kappa emerged as the most sensitive metric in statistical and machine learning analyses, with a feature importance score of 168.32. The Kappa coefficient showed variations across CBRN PAT themes, including medical protocols, logistics, and infrastructure. The integrated statistical and machine learning approach provides a promising method for understanding expert consensus in disaster preparedness, with potential for future refinement by incorporating additional contextual factors.</p>","PeriodicalId":47674,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management","volume":"33 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1468-5973.70044","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143786820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Google Trends and Media Coverage: A Comparison During the COVID-19 Pandemic","authors":"Katja Schulze,&nbsp;Johannes Ludwig Löffler,&nbsp;Martin Voss","doi":"10.1111/1468-5973.70045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.70045","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, infodemiological studies have utilized Google Trends (GT) data to monitor and predict changes in public interest and social behavior. However, the question posed by researchers regarding the relation between online search interest and public media coverage has remained mostly unanswered. Moreover, many studies focus their research mainly on disease labels and symptoms. Thus, this article aims to contribute to crisis research, providing a long-term analysis of Google search queries and media coverage in Germany between January 2020 and December 2022, incorporating a broad range of different keywords and categories. The study identified strong correlations between GT and public media data for the categories of <i>disease labels</i>, <i>dynamics</i>, and <i>severity</i>, followed by moderate to strong correlations for <i>characteristics</i>. GT analysis of these keywords may be suitable to monitor public awareness, validate the media impact and assess the efficacy of health communication strategies. Since the results for <i>symptoms</i> showed no significant relation, disease symptoms may serve as valuable keywords for surveilling or forecasting the spread of infectious diseases. The study emphasizes the significance of examining the relationship between media coverage and information-seeking behavior during pandemics and other crises.</p>","PeriodicalId":47674,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management","volume":"33 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1468-5973.70045","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143786847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Public Health Response Model Estimates Bombing Consequences of Three Historical Events","authors":"Jennifer Malik,&nbsp;Abigail A. A. Enders,&nbsp;Jack Morrison","doi":"10.1111/1468-5973.70043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.70043","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Emergency medical response after mass casualty bombing events impacts victim outcomes. Preparedness efforts and scenario analysis via a public health response model may help mitigate morbidity and mortality from an explosive attack. The stock-and-flow model implementation and analysis were conducted using three, well-documented, historical bombing events: Birmingham Pubs, Centennial Olympic Park, and Boston Marathon. The explosives public health response model was evaluated using the known injuries sustained in the historical events and subsequent patient outcomes. Injury type and severity were used by the model to predict hospital routing, countermeasure consumption, and victim outcomes, including treatment efficacy. The model predictions are compared to the literature reports available for each event, and statistical acceptance criteria were results within two standard deviations of the historical data. The Birmingham Pubs bombings historically had 182 surviving casualties, and it is predicted there are 181 (±1.5) surviving casualties; Centennial Olympic Park bombing had 111 surviving casualties, and the model predicts 111 (±0); and Boston Marathon bombings resulted in 281 surviving casualties, and the model predicts 280 (±5.1). For all three historical events, the model predicts within two standard deviations for all examined parameters (alive, fatal, hospital routing, fatal untreated, and fatal ineffective treatment) except for the modeled hospital routing of Centennial Olympic Park bombing. Historically, all surviving victims were transported (111 patients) to area hospitals, and the model predicts 83 (±9.9) hospital transports with more people receiving sufficient care at attack site triage. The public health response model examined herein is an effective planning and mitigation tool for event preparedness to reduce risk based on historical accuracy with victim outcomes. Optimization of triage, hospital routing, and countermeasure consumption can improve victim outcome with this modeling tool. Explosives continue to be a public health risk, and mitigation efforts, such as this model, provide avenues for improved health care response.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47674,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management","volume":"33 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143778425","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trust Erosion Framework for Organisational Responses to and Management of Global Emergencies","authors":"LaShonda Eaddy,&nbsp;Santosh Vijaykumar,&nbsp;Yan Jin,&nbsp;Xuerong Lu,&nbsp;Swati Sharma,&nbsp;Aravind Sesagiri Raamkumar","doi":"10.1111/1468-5973.70039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.70039","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In response to the societal crisis of trust widely documented by researchers and pollsters, this conceptual paper proposes a Trust Erosion Framework (TEF). By drawing analogies with the process of soil erosion, we postulate that the erosion of trust proceeds in stages: detachment, transportation and deposition. Furthermore, erosion of trust may be precipitated by the gravitational pulls of sticky and spillover crises, moderate weather events (e.g., disinformation), or extreme weather events (e.g., global crises). Responses to trust erosion and further management of trust is a dynamic, cyclical process. We illustrate the key ideas within our framework through a case study of the World Health Organization's crisis communication management during the COVID-19 pandemic. In these ways, the TEF offers an organised, evidence-based way to understand and respond to trust erosion especially during major global crises. The expanded conceptualisation of trust erosion may enable crisis communication stakeholders from academia, practice and policy to develop innovative, proactive communication strategies, that anticipate headwinds and respond in a timely, effective manner.</p>","PeriodicalId":47674,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management","volume":"33 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1468-5973.70039","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143770318","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Correction to “A Micro-Level Model for Crisis Management in Tourism Destinations: An Interdisciplinary Approach”","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/1468-5973.70042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.70042","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Khardani, C., and Schmude, J. 2024. “A Micro-Level Model for Crisis Management in Tourism Destinations: An Interdisciplinary Approach.” <i>Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management</i> 32, no. 3: e12619. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.12619</p><p>The research focus for all three should be “Organisational” and not “Tourism.”</p><p>I apologize for this error.</p>","PeriodicalId":47674,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management","volume":"33 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1468-5973.70042","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749367","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Navigating the Beneficiary/NGO Relationship: A Model of Intercultural Trust in Disaster Response","authors":"Christa L. Remington,&nbsp;Charity R. Remington","doi":"10.1111/1468-5973.70038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.70038","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study examines the role of cultural competence in increasing trust between community-based NGO workers and beneficiaries in Haiti. Using data from focus groups (<i>n</i> = 7) and surveys (<i>n</i> = 140) done with Haitians still living in NGO managed camps nearly a decade after the 2010 earthquake, this study includes the rarely heard beneficiary perspective and examines ways that NGOs can more effectively build trust and cultivate buy-in from the communities they serve in the aftermath of disasters. Our results show that there is a positive relationship between trust and cultural competence. Additionally, there is a positive relationship between trust and respect, even when cultural competence is ranked low. We propose a model of intercultural trust, where respect is an antecedent of cultural competence, and cultural competence enhances trust in the NGO worker/beneficiary relationship. This study encourages NGOs to increase their aid workers' cultural awareness, knowledge, and skills to cultivate greater trust with beneficiaries, thereby increasing the effectiveness of post-disaster programs.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47674,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management","volume":"33 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143741565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Organisational Resilience to Compound Events: Wildfire and the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Sierra Nevada Region of California","authors":"Kristin VanderMolen,&nbsp;Tamara U. Wall","doi":"10.1111/1468-5973.70041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.70041","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The years 2020 and 2021 mark the two largest wildfire seasons in recorded California state history and the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. This article employs the resilience as meta-capability framework in the study of small- and medium-sized enterprise (SME) response to and recovery from these compound events in the Sierra Nevada region of California, with three aims. The first is to advance understanding of organisational resilience to compound events. The second is to motivate a theoretically informed body of work that moves SME climate-related impact studies beyond empirical description of outcomes and towards understanding of how resilient organisations might be built. The third is to support increased SME resilience through the identification and dissemination of the key capabilities and conditions that enabled response and recovery. Findings, based on semi-structured interviews with 32 Sierra Nevada SMEs, suggest that the resilience as meta-capability framework is helpful towards achieving those ends.</p>","PeriodicalId":47674,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management","volume":"33 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1468-5973.70041","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143726903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Wear a Mask, Save a Life? Insights From COVID-19 on Shifting Digital Influence Amid High Epistemic Uncertainty During Crisis","authors":"Yonggang Lu","doi":"10.1111/1468-5973.70040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.70040","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study examines opinion leadership and information diffusion on Twitter (X) during crisis periods with high epistemic uncertainty among the public. By analysing a tweet dataset captured during a unique COVID-19 period marked by conflicting face mask guidelines, we explore how crisis situations like this reshape social media influence dynamics. Our findings reveal complex and paradoxical relationships between traditional indicators of opinion leadership and actual influence, mediated through engagement metrics. Content relevance and engagement patterns can outweigh traditional user attributes in determining influence, with non-traditional opinion leaders emerging through creative, highly engaging crisis-related posts. A network structure of community clusters with limited cross-community flow further defines influence pathways. Our study highlights the importance of flexible, distributed models of online crisis information diffusion that consider the dynamic interplay between user attributes, network topology, engagement patterns and contextual factors. These insights also suggest potential benefits in exploring more adaptive, context-sensitive approaches to managing information flow in digital environments during crises.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47674,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689103","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From Wallets to Warnings: The Impact of Disaster Loss Severity and Types on Public Disaster Protective Actions","authors":"Ziyao Wang,&nbsp;Jichun Chen,&nbsp;Ben Ma,&nbsp;Qi Bian","doi":"10.1111/1468-5973.70037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.70037","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Pre-disaster protective actions play a crucial role in mitigating disaster risks and enhancing resilience. Using data from Taiwan, China, this study examines how the degree and type of disaster-induced damages influence protective actions. The findings reveal the following: (1) The extent of disaster damage, rather than merely experiencing a disaster, motivates individuals to engage in protective actions. (2) Economic and financial losses are the primary drivers of public protective actions, compared to other types of losses. (3) The study distinguishes between binary variables (the presence or absence of protective actions) and continuous variables (degree of preparedness) to assess the varying impacts of different factors. Risk perception is found to mediate the relationship between disaster damage and both the presence and extent of protective actions. Meanwhile, resilience only moderates the relationship between risk perception and the presence or absence of protective actions. (4) Information sources and perceptions of government authority significantly influence both the likelihood and extent of protective actions. However, trust in government and social capital do not exert any influence in this regard. This study advocates for targeted interventions for individuals severely affected by disaster-related financial losses and emphasizes the need to enhance protective actions through diverse information channels.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47674,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143595224","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Examining Tension Management of Coastal Residents' Decisions to Stay or Leave During Hurricane Florence","authors":"Andrew S. Pyle,&nbsp;Ryan P. Fuller,&nbsp;Hillary Smith","doi":"10.1111/1468-5973.70036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.70036","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines how coastal residents in the path of a hurricane manage the tension to evacuate or stay. In interviews with 17 coastal residents, we found evidence of tension management through account giving. Stayers justified their choices as keeping close to loved ones and animals, reducing difficulties in returning, and benchmarking prior storms to guide their actions over other sources of information. Evacuees framed the tension as either the <i>only</i> choice or the better of two poor choices. Our analysis also revealed contradictions in evacuating: a case of haves (have resources to evacuate but do not) and have nots (want to evacuate, but do not have the resources) and the perception that shelters were not a viable option. Lastly, stayers extracted lessons learned that reinforced their action and would likely guide future behaviours through benchmarking. Implications of these findings are offered for emergency managers, including speaking to residents' tension management, addressing contradictions, and acknowledging lesson learned, are discussed.</p>","PeriodicalId":47674,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1468-5973.70036","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143581785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}