Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management最新文献

{"title":"Public Health Response Model Estimates Bombing Consequences of Three Historical Events","authors":"Jennifer Malik,&nbsp;Abigail A. A. Enders,&nbsp;Jack Morrison","doi":"10.1111/1468-5973.70043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.70043","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Emergency medical response after mass casualty bombing events impacts victim outcomes. Preparedness efforts and scenario analysis via a public health response model may help mitigate morbidity and mortality from an explosive attack. The stock-and-flow model implementation and analysis were conducted using three, well-documented, historical bombing events: Birmingham Pubs, Centennial Olympic Park, and Boston Marathon. The explosives public health response model was evaluated using the known injuries sustained in the historical events and subsequent patient outcomes. Injury type and severity were used by the model to predict hospital routing, countermeasure consumption, and victim outcomes, including treatment efficacy. The model predictions are compared to the literature reports available for each event, and statistical acceptance criteria were results within two standard deviations of the historical data. The Birmingham Pubs bombings historically had 182 surviving casualties, and it is predicted there are 181 (±1.5) surviving casualties; Centennial Olympic Park bombing had 111 surviving casualties, and the model predicts 111 (±0); and Boston Marathon bombings resulted in 281 surviving casualties, and the model predicts 280 (±5.1). For all three historical events, the model predicts within two standard deviations for all examined parameters (alive, fatal, hospital routing, fatal untreated, and fatal ineffective treatment) except for the modeled hospital routing of Centennial Olympic Park bombing. Historically, all surviving victims were transported (111 patients) to area hospitals, and the model predicts 83 (±9.9) hospital transports with more people receiving sufficient care at attack site triage. The public health response model examined herein is an effective planning and mitigation tool for event preparedness to reduce risk based on historical accuracy with victim outcomes. Optimization of triage, hospital routing, and countermeasure consumption can improve victim outcome with this modeling tool. Explosives continue to be a public health risk, and mitigation efforts, such as this model, provide avenues for improved health care response.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47674,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management","volume":"33 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143778425","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trust Erosion Framework for Organisational Responses to and Management of Global Emergencies","authors":"LaShonda Eaddy,&nbsp;Santosh Vijaykumar,&nbsp;Yan Jin,&nbsp;Xuerong Lu,&nbsp;Swati Sharma,&nbsp;Aravind Sesagiri Raamkumar","doi":"10.1111/1468-5973.70039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.70039","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In response to the societal crisis of trust widely documented by researchers and pollsters, this conceptual paper proposes a Trust Erosion Framework (TEF). By drawing analogies with the process of soil erosion, we postulate that the erosion of trust proceeds in stages: detachment, transportation and deposition. Furthermore, erosion of trust may be precipitated by the gravitational pulls of sticky and spillover crises, moderate weather events (e.g., disinformation), or extreme weather events (e.g., global crises). Responses to trust erosion and further management of trust is a dynamic, cyclical process. We illustrate the key ideas within our framework through a case study of the World Health Organization's crisis communication management during the COVID-19 pandemic. In these ways, the TEF offers an organised, evidence-based way to understand and respond to trust erosion especially during major global crises. The expanded conceptualisation of trust erosion may enable crisis communication stakeholders from academia, practice and policy to develop innovative, proactive communication strategies, that anticipate headwinds and respond in a timely, effective manner.</p>","PeriodicalId":47674,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management","volume":"33 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1468-5973.70039","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143770318","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Correction to “A Micro-Level Model for Crisis Management in Tourism Destinations: An Interdisciplinary Approach”","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/1468-5973.70042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.70042","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Khardani, C., and Schmude, J. 2024. “A Micro-Level Model for Crisis Management in Tourism Destinations: An Interdisciplinary Approach.” <i>Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management</i> 32, no. 3: e12619. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.12619</p><p>The research focus for all three should be “Organisational” and not “Tourism.”</p><p>I apologize for this error.</p>","PeriodicalId":47674,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management","volume":"33 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1468-5973.70042","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749367","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Navigating the Beneficiary/NGO Relationship: A Model of Intercultural Trust in Disaster Response","authors":"Christa L. Remington,&nbsp;Charity R. Remington","doi":"10.1111/1468-5973.70038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.70038","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study examines the role of cultural competence in increasing trust between community-based NGO workers and beneficiaries in Haiti. Using data from focus groups (<i>n</i> = 7) and surveys (<i>n</i> = 140) done with Haitians still living in NGO managed camps nearly a decade after the 2010 earthquake, this study includes the rarely heard beneficiary perspective and examines ways that NGOs can more effectively build trust and cultivate buy-in from the communities they serve in the aftermath of disasters. Our results show that there is a positive relationship between trust and cultural competence. Additionally, there is a positive relationship between trust and respect, even when cultural competence is ranked low. We propose a model of intercultural trust, where respect is an antecedent of cultural competence, and cultural competence enhances trust in the NGO worker/beneficiary relationship. This study encourages NGOs to increase their aid workers' cultural awareness, knowledge, and skills to cultivate greater trust with beneficiaries, thereby increasing the effectiveness of post-disaster programs.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47674,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management","volume":"33 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143741565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Organisational Resilience to Compound Events: Wildfire and the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Sierra Nevada Region of California","authors":"Kristin VanderMolen,&nbsp;Tamara U. Wall","doi":"10.1111/1468-5973.70041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.70041","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The years 2020 and 2021 mark the two largest wildfire seasons in recorded California state history and the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. This article employs the resilience as meta-capability framework in the study of small- and medium-sized enterprise (SME) response to and recovery from these compound events in the Sierra Nevada region of California, with three aims. The first is to advance understanding of organisational resilience to compound events. The second is to motivate a theoretically informed body of work that moves SME climate-related impact studies beyond empirical description of outcomes and towards understanding of how resilient organisations might be built. The third is to support increased SME resilience through the identification and dissemination of the key capabilities and conditions that enabled response and recovery. Findings, based on semi-structured interviews with 32 Sierra Nevada SMEs, suggest that the resilience as meta-capability framework is helpful towards achieving those ends.</p>","PeriodicalId":47674,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management","volume":"33 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1468-5973.70041","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143726903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Wear a Mask, Save a Life? Insights From COVID-19 on Shifting Digital Influence Amid High Epistemic Uncertainty During Crisis","authors":"Yonggang Lu","doi":"10.1111/1468-5973.70040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.70040","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study examines opinion leadership and information diffusion on Twitter (X) during crisis periods with high epistemic uncertainty among the public. By analysing a tweet dataset captured during a unique COVID-19 period marked by conflicting face mask guidelines, we explore how crisis situations like this reshape social media influence dynamics. Our findings reveal complex and paradoxical relationships between traditional indicators of opinion leadership and actual influence, mediated through engagement metrics. Content relevance and engagement patterns can outweigh traditional user attributes in determining influence, with non-traditional opinion leaders emerging through creative, highly engaging crisis-related posts. A network structure of community clusters with limited cross-community flow further defines influence pathways. Our study highlights the importance of flexible, distributed models of online crisis information diffusion that consider the dynamic interplay between user attributes, network topology, engagement patterns and contextual factors. These insights also suggest potential benefits in exploring more adaptive, context-sensitive approaches to managing information flow in digital environments during crises.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47674,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689103","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From Wallets to Warnings: The Impact of Disaster Loss Severity and Types on Public Disaster Protective Actions","authors":"Ziyao Wang,&nbsp;Jichun Chen,&nbsp;Ben Ma,&nbsp;Qi Bian","doi":"10.1111/1468-5973.70037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.70037","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Pre-disaster protective actions play a crucial role in mitigating disaster risks and enhancing resilience. Using data from Taiwan, China, this study examines how the degree and type of disaster-induced damages influence protective actions. The findings reveal the following: (1) The extent of disaster damage, rather than merely experiencing a disaster, motivates individuals to engage in protective actions. (2) Economic and financial losses are the primary drivers of public protective actions, compared to other types of losses. (3) The study distinguishes between binary variables (the presence or absence of protective actions) and continuous variables (degree of preparedness) to assess the varying impacts of different factors. Risk perception is found to mediate the relationship between disaster damage and both the presence and extent of protective actions. Meanwhile, resilience only moderates the relationship between risk perception and the presence or absence of protective actions. (4) Information sources and perceptions of government authority significantly influence both the likelihood and extent of protective actions. However, trust in government and social capital do not exert any influence in this regard. This study advocates for targeted interventions for individuals severely affected by disaster-related financial losses and emphasizes the need to enhance protective actions through diverse information channels.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47674,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143595224","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Examining Tension Management of Coastal Residents' Decisions to Stay or Leave During Hurricane Florence","authors":"Andrew S. Pyle,&nbsp;Ryan P. Fuller,&nbsp;Hillary Smith","doi":"10.1111/1468-5973.70036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.70036","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines how coastal residents in the path of a hurricane manage the tension to evacuate or stay. In interviews with 17 coastal residents, we found evidence of tension management through account giving. Stayers justified their choices as keeping close to loved ones and animals, reducing difficulties in returning, and benchmarking prior storms to guide their actions over other sources of information. Evacuees framed the tension as either the <i>only</i> choice or the better of two poor choices. Our analysis also revealed contradictions in evacuating: a case of haves (have resources to evacuate but do not) and have nots (want to evacuate, but do not have the resources) and the perception that shelters were not a viable option. Lastly, stayers extracted lessons learned that reinforced their action and would likely guide future behaviours through benchmarking. Implications of these findings are offered for emergency managers, including speaking to residents' tension management, addressing contradictions, and acknowledging lesson learned, are discussed.</p>","PeriodicalId":47674,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1468-5973.70036","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143581785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Conditions for Successful Collaboration in Emergency Response: Evidence From a Survey Experiment of Organized Search and Rescue Volunteers in Norway","authors":"Dag Wollebæk,&nbsp;Vibeke Wøien Hansen","doi":"10.1111/1468-5973.70034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.70034","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Trust, previous collaboration history, power asymmetry, and shifts from horizontal to hierarchical governance are factors that have been argued and, to some extent, shown to impact the success of collaboration. However, we know little about how these factors play out in the context of emergency response collaboration, particularly between public authorities and organized search and rescue (SAR) volunteers. Using a conjoint experiment with organized SAR volunteers in Norway, we examine how collaboration that blends hierarchical command and horizontal network coordination works in practice by randomly varying multiple features of a hypothetical mission. Our exploratory study confirms that the shift from horizontal to vertical modes of governance poses a challenge for collaborative emergency response. Furthermore, the findings highlight that trust, as social capital built through repeated interactions, is a key resource in multi-actor emergency management, both as an initial condition and during the response phase.</p>","PeriodicalId":47674,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1468-5973.70034","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143513859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Adept or Inept? Examining the Chinese Government's Social Media Crisis Response During the Zhengzhou Rainstorm","authors":"Jintao Zhang,&nbsp;Suying Sun","doi":"10.1111/1468-5973.70033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.70033","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Effective crisis communication is important for governments to mitigate the impact of disasters and maintain public trust. This study examines the Chinese government's social media crisis response during the 2021 Zhengzhou rainstorm, developing a government crisis frame model to analyze 10,036 Weibo posts across 73 government accounts. The findings reveal three dominant framing strategies: Disaster Reporting and Information Updates, Leadership and Disaster Relief, and Achievement, which collectively highlight institutional competence and phased progress to cultivate public confidence. Additionally, the government strategically amplified emotional appeals through the Human Interest and Encouragement frame, fostering collective political emotions and social cohesion, while the Severity frame appeared far less frequently. Notably, while the Inviting the Public frame had the strongest communication effect, it was the least utilized. The association between the government sector and effect is relatively weak and becomes insignificant after controlling for follower count and crisis stage. While the government level significantly and positively influences the communication effect, provincial-municipal differences were marginal, reflecting that high economic capital enables municipal media to achieve autonomy comparable to provincial actors. These results reveal the Chinese government's strategic use of social media to achieve integrative consensus and collective resilience. This research provides empirical evidence of the Chinese government's crisis communication strategies on social media and offers a methodological framework for analyzing government crisis responses in the digital era, contributing to the broader discourse on political communication.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47674,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143513647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}