Case Studies on Transport Policy最新文献

{"title":"Investigating the effects of changing departure times on controlling secondary traffic peaks during the implementation of a congestion charge zone","authors":"Sedigheh KhorramDehnavi ,&nbsp;Salman AghidiKheyrabadi ,&nbsp;Ali MorovatiSharifabadi ,&nbsp;Alireza NaserSadrabadi","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101700","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101700","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Transportation demand management policies have the potential to significantly alter individuals’ routine travel behavior. One of the key responses of private car passengers to the implementation of congestion plans is the adjustment of trip departure times. If the management of changing trip departure time shifts is not effective, the emergence of traffic peak periods before and after the plan may exceed current peak traffic levels. A literature review reveals that the investigation of trip departure time adjustments has received limited attention, and behavior regulation strategies to mitigate peak period formation have not been explored. The primary aim of this paper is to develop scenarios integrating transportation demand management strategies to prevent the occurrence of a tipping point. To achieve this, the effects of social and economic factors, travel characteristics, and citizens’ attitudes toward transportation demand management policies on private car passengers’ departure time shifts in the congestion zone have been examined. To estimate the probability of departure time adjustments, 2,256 individuals were interviewed in Shiraz, yielding 13,536 observations through Stated-Preference (SP) analysis. The calibration of the binary logit model has demonstrated that congestion pricing policies, parking fees, reductions in public transportation travel time, and enhancements in bus service quality exert significant influence on departure time modifications. Based on extensive policy considerations, 27 out of the 36 defined scenarios—those generating a peak period outside the congestion plan’s implementation timeframe—have been deemed unsuitable for execution. This paper introduces a novel probability-thresholding framework that operationalizes behavioral model outputs to proactively screen Transport Demand Management (TDM) scenarios for secondary congestion risks — a methodological advancement not previously applied in developing-city contexts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 101700"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146077281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Demystifying complexities in the adoption of hydraulic-powered personal rapid transit systems: a multi-stakeholder perspective","authors":"Muhammad Usman Ghani ,&nbsp;Zheng Yonglai ,&nbsp;Ahsan Waqas ,&nbsp;Omrane Benjeddou ,&nbsp;Hamad R. Almujibah","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101683","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101683","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The emergence of Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) systems has provided a highly appealing solution to the challenges linked to urban mobility, including pollution, congestion, and access. Nevertheless, the global implementation of PRT systems is extremely limited, indicating a significant research void that must be elucidated by examining numerous factors and obstacles that influence the adopting such systems in urban environments. This study fills this void by employing a comprehensive multi-stakeholder approach—including a literature review and quantitative analysis to comprehend the complexities associated with PRT adoption. According to the findings, critical technological, environmental, economic, societal, and regulatory obstacles impede the implementation of PRT systems. Given the technological obstacles, integration with municipal infrastructure appeared to be the most critical factor, as indicated by the path coefficient value of 0.454, which significantly impacts adoption decisions. Additional important factors that fall within the purview of the path coefficient are economic and environmental considerations, which have respective path coefficients of 0.208 and 0.343. This is associated with a significant and tangible influence on the feasibility and reception of PRT systems. Stakeholders deemed the development of multifaceted planning and adaptive policy frameworks to emphasize the significance of regulatory support and public acceptability with path coefficients of 0.307 and 0.276, respectively. The study’s practical implications encompass urban planners, policymakers, and investors, particularly regarding utilizing collaborative strategies to surmount obstacles to adoption.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 101683"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145736348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reliability-based crash risk analysis for prioritizing safety projects","authors":"Hossein Saedi,&nbsp;Ali Abdi Kordani,&nbsp;Hamid Reza Behnood","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101709","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101709","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Social crash costs and the limitations of allocated highway safety budgets are two key factors influencing the prioritization of highway safety projects. To ensure the efficient use of these budgets, expenditures must be optimized to achieve the highest possible impact. This study presents a framework that uses the Empirical Bayesian (EB) method to develop probabilistic models of social crash costs. The framework calculates the exceedance probability of crash costs for various collision types, including rare events, through the Monte Carlo method, a technique within reliability analysis. The framework is applied to Highway 36 in Iran, which spans 186 km. Utilizing a reliability-based risk analysis, all highway segments—comprising 34 tangent and 30 horizontal curve segments—were prioritized for safety improvements. A key outcome of this study, beyond project prioritization, is the creation of exceedance probability curves for social crash costs across different collision types. These curves offer a valuable foundation for informed decision-making in risk mitigation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 101709"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146187499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Railway liberalization and efficiency: Incumbents vs. Entrants in Austria and Czechia","authors":"Marek Vokoun ,&nbsp;František Stellner ,&nbsp;Tomáš Nigrin ,&nbsp;Jan Neugebauer","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101710","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101710","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study evaluates the scale efficiency (SE) of passenger railway operators in Austria and Czechia between 2015 and 2019, aiming to understand the impact of liberalization on sectoral performance. Using an input-oriented Slack-Based Measure (SBM) Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model under Variable Returns to Scale (VRS), the research analyzed financial and operational data from ORBIS and MagnusWeb databases for both incumbent and non-incumbent companies. Results reveal a consistent pattern: national incumbents, ÖBB Personenverkehr AG (Austria) and České dráhy, a.s. (Czechia), exhibited significant and persistent scale inefficiencies, averaging 35.39% and 51.54% SE respectively. This indicates they operate below their optimal scale, likely due to decreasing returns to scale. In stark contrast, several private and regional operators in both countries consistently achieved perfect or near-perfect SE, demonstrating optimal alignment with the Most Productive Scale Size (MPSS). For example, CityRail, RegioJet (Czechia), Montafonerbahn AG, and WESTbahn Management GmbH (Austria) maintained 100% SE. While Austria’s overall sector showed higher average efficiency and resilience due to a broader base of well-performing non-incumbents, the Czech sector exhibited greater volatility among smaller operators, though it showed an improving trend by 2019. The findings suggest that railway liberalization, while fostering efficiency among new entrants, has not uniformly resolved the deep-seated inefficiencies of incumbents. Achieving true sectoral efficiency requires structural reforms beyond mere market access, addressing issues such as governance, subsidies, and regulatory oversight.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 101710"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145976476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Delays in container vessels operations and trade in container terminals: Empirical Insights on Nigerian container terminals","authors":"Chinyeaka Nwokodi Nwoloziri ,&nbsp;Ibeawuchi Chibueze Nze ,&nbsp;Arbia Hlali","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101655","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101655","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Nigerian container ports handle with systemic delays, including prolonged ship turnaround times, berth congestion, bureaucratic documentation, inefficient customs procedures, and traffic gridlock, which exacerbate operational inefficiencies. This study investigates the economic impact of vessel delays through a quantitative analysis of secondary data from Nigerian port container terminals (2007–2022), encompassing ship turnaround times, vessel traffic calls, berth occupancy rates, Gross Registered Tonnage (GRT), TEU throughput, and vessel operation tariffs. Employing a log-linear multiple regression model and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), the research evaluated correlations between delay costs and three critical variables: container trade volume (TEU), ship traffic volume, and GRT of vessels. The results revealed statistically significant positive correlations on Delays in Vessels Operations and Trend of Shipping Operations in Nigerian Container Terminals is significant given R = 0.839527and P-value = 0.019826. The effect of Delay Costs in Vessels Operations on Trend of Container Shipping Operations is significant given (R = 0.764598 and P-value = 0.0169194). The effect of Delay Costs in Vessels Operations on Ship Calls in Nigerian Container Terminals is significant given R = 0.732767 and P = 0.045269. Effect of Delay Costs in Vessels Operations on GRT of Ships handled in Nigerian Container Terminals is significant given R = 0.644546 and P-value = 0.17143. These findings underscore how growing trade volumes and vessel sizes amplify the financial penalties of port inefficiencies. The study attributes these delays to infrastructural constraints, post-concession policy gaps, and procedural bottlenecks. To mitigate economic losses, it advocates strict adherence to a two-day ship turnaround benchmark and systemic reforms targeting digitized customs processes, berth optimization, and road network upgrades. By addressing these challenges, Nigerian ports could reduce delay-related costs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 101655"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145569970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How will electric, autonomous, and shared vehicles impact sustainable urban mobility? Professionals’ insights from Brazil","authors":"Anna Luíza Nobre Bezerra ,&nbsp;Antônio Nélson Rodrigues da Silva","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101680","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101680","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>It was anticipated that the so-called “Mobility 4.0″ would introduce modifications to transport systems that could potentially influence mobility conditions provided by existing modes of transport. Nevertheless, it remains unclear how these changes will impact mobility in terms of its sustainability. This gap is particularly evident in countries such as Brazil, where this research was conducted. This study evaluated the prospective implications of selected mobility 4.0 developments (in particular, electric and autonomous vehicle technologies, and shared mobility) by examining 18 themes related to sustainable urban mobility. An online questionnaire was designed and distributed to professionals in the field. The questionnaire sought to categorize the most significant impacts within each theme using a 5-level Likert scale, ranging from very positive to very negative. Data analysis extracted from 320 valid responses provides empirical evidence that helps identify these technologies’ potential impacts on urban mobility’s sustainability. Depending on the theme, these impacts may be positive, negative, or neutral/undefined. It is noteworthy, for example, that electric vehicles and shared mobility have been evaluated very positively in relation to the theme Control of impacts on environment, which falls within the Environmental aspects domain. Overall, the level of knowledge demonstrated by the respondents did not significantly impact the results. However, when observed, this characteristic was notably marked among the respondents with advanced practical knowledge. Finally, in terms of policy recommendations, the outcomes suggest that policymakers must be prepared to constantly adapt policies based on changing technology, user behavior, and urban dynamics. Moreover, potential discrepancies in access to distinct socioeconomic groups are also a concern that must be addressed by policies, as these groups may have differing needs and expectations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 101680"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145883556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ship arrival patterns at the port of Sines: A comparative analysis of ETA and ATA","authors":"Luís Rosa,&nbsp;Francisco Borges,&nbsp;Crismeire Isbaex,&nbsp;Carmen Luisa Vásquez,&nbsp;Teresa Batista","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101705","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101705","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate vessel arrival predictions are fundamental to efficient port operations, yet their reliability remains poorly understood. This study examines 15 years of arrival data from the Port of Sines (2009–2023) to assess the accuracy of Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) predictions and their operational implications. The analysis of vessel movements reveals that precise on-time arrivals occurred in only 1.77 % of cases. While 56.93 % of vessels arrived ahead of schedule, delayed arrivals were disproportionately severe, averaging 6 h and 52 min late. The data shows 1,623 instances of extreme delays exceeding 24 h, highlighting significant forecasting challenges. Terminal specific analysis demonstrates marked variation in performance: The Container Terminal recorded the highest average delay (+10:26 h) and was the only facility where late arrivals outnumbered early ones. It was found that vessels with frequent port calls exhibited substantially better punctuality, indicating that operational knowledge improves scheduling accuracy. These timing discrepancies translate directly into extended anchorage periods, generating measurable economic costs and environmental impacts through increased fuel consumption and emissions. Better forecasting accuracy could significantly reduce the operational inefficiencies that currently outbreak container shipping operations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 101705"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145924541","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dual airports, market exit and airline competition——evidence of the Chinese market","authors":"Ying Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101640","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101640","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The paper studies the opening of Beijing Daxing International Airport (BDIA) and the accompanying transfer of flight capacity by Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines to BDIA away from Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA). The study treats this transfer as an exit event at BCIA (and the announcement of the capacity reduction as a potential exit event) to study how incumbents at BCIA react to the (potential) exit. It is found that, as potential market exit has occurred, the incumbents of BCIA increase fares close to and far away from the departure date and reduce fares when the departure date is neither close nor far away. Meanwhile, when the departure date is neither close nor far away, incumbents also reduce code-sharing and seat supply. The reasons for incumbents’ preemptive actions may be lock-in effect or competition softening. In addition, this paper also implies a ‘ratchet’ effect by potential market exit.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 101640"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145520893","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of e-scooter sharing as a feeder mode for public transport in suburban communities in Germany – A mixed methods approach","authors":"Jan Gödde,&nbsp;Joachim Scheiner","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101657","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101657","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>E-scooter-sharing is primarily offered in large cities, where e-scooters are frequently used as a feeder mode for public transport (first and last mile). Nevertheless, critics argue that these services may be redundant in well-connected urban areas and could offer greater value in suburban or peripheral regions, where first/last mile transport is often less flexible, the number of departures of feeder modes is lower and distances to stations are longer. This study evaluates the utilization potential of e-scooter-sharing and the challenges of implementing it in suburban communities in Germany by using a three-part mixed methods approach: we estimate demand through spatial analysis, engage stakeholders in focus groups to discuss implementation strategies, and analyze user behavior and movement patterns in a living lab, in which we test e-scooter-sharing in a suburban town over a two-month period. Results suggest utilization potential in intermodal commuting routes of young inhabitants, with insufficient cycling networks and financial difficulties being the main challenges of adoption. Cooperation between cities and providers is identified as the key to successful adaptation, for establishing parking regulations, and creating an integrated experience of public transport and e-scooter-sharing.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 101657"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145570073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pardon me but your e-scooter is in my space: Evaluating the effectiveness of e-scooters parking policies through big data analytics","authors":"Sharon Shoshany-Tavory,&nbsp;Hillel Bar-Gera","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101707","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101707","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The growing popularity of shared e-scooters promises to enhance the mobility of urban dwellers in an environmentally friendly manner. On the other hand, e-scooters may potentially pose a risk to other road users, particularly pedestrians, and improperly parked vehicles may hinder accessibility. Therefore, to advance the goals of sustainability and mobility, cities should consider how street space should be managed for all travelers. One policy for shared e-scooter parking control is to limit parking to designated corrals. Corral-based parking policies have been adopted by many municipalities, with limited reports on effectiveness. This study provides an in-depth exploration of such policy deployment, governing the highly utilized services offered in the city of Tel-Aviv. By using our suggested framework and big-data spatio-temporal analytics of e-scooters data, we outline success measures, common pitfalls, and demonstrate city-wide patterns and location-specific results. Our discussion offers policy improvement suggestions, addressing design and policies, including corral-centered monitoring, redistribution policy, resilience estimation, and better space utilization. These could benefit municipalities, operators, and monitoring tools suppliers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 101707"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146037380","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}