Using synthetic control to assess the impact of light rail transit on neighborhood demographics: A case study of Charlotte’s South End

Charlotte, North Carolina is one of the fastest growing regions in the country. Its growth in population and industry has led to an increasingly sprawling cityscape, generating urban issues associated with car dependence. To provide transportation alternatives, the regional transit authority opened the LYNX Blue Line in late 2007, the first of two public transit lines that cross the city. Using publicly available Census data and a synthetic control approach, we assess demographic compositional change in South End, a popular “live-work- play” area that has been a focus of transit-oriented development since the Blue Line’s opening. We find that South End experienced an increase in young, high income, and professional services workers, while it also experienced a decrease in low-income workers relative to expectations from non-treated synthetic controls. Results are lagged, suggesting that development surrounding station build-outs played a significant role in driving the observed demographic shifts within the neighborhood. This work helps to understand the step-by-step connections between transit investment, associated residential and commercial development, and demographic change at the neighborhood level.