Tropical Cyclone Research and Review最新文献

{"title":"Study of boundary layer characteristics during the landfalling of a Nisarga cyclone","authors":"Rani P. Pawar ,&nbsp;Prajna Priyadarshini ,&nbsp;T. Dharmaraj ,&nbsp;Dada P. Nade ,&nbsp;Mahendra N. Patil ,&nbsp;Omkar M. Patil ,&nbsp;N. Jeni Victor ,&nbsp;Sambhaji M. Pawar ,&nbsp;D.G. Kanase ,&nbsp;Sunil D. Pawar","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2024.06.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2024.06.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>One of the most important parameters in meteorology is the mean wind profile in the tropical cyclone boundary layer. The vertical profile of wind speed and wind direction were measured during the period of the Nisarga cyclone from May 31st, 2020, to June 5th, 2020, using the newly installed Phased Array Doppler Sodar system at the Center for Space and Atmospheric Science (CSAS), Sanjay Ghodawat University, Kolhapur (16.74° N, 74.37° E; near India's western coast). Our analysis revealed that the maximum mean wind speed was 17 m/s on June 3, 2020, at 10:00 IST. It also shows the change in wind direction from southwest to southeast on June 2 and 3, 2020. Daily high-resolution reanalysis data in the domain, 0–25°N, 65–110°E, during the period from May 31st to June 5th, 2020, revealed the variation of the atmospheric pressure of the Nisarga cyclone from 1000 to 1008 hPa, sea surface temperature (SST) between 30 °C and 31 °C, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) between 100 and 240 Wm^-2, wind speed between 3 and 15 m/s, and low values of vertical wind shear (VWS) were observed to the north of Nisarga track. These observations may provide more insights for the study of boundary layer turbulence during cyclonic activities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"13 2","pages":"Pages 55-71"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603224000274/pdfft?md5=0c1b139bc109ad693dbf7db82c316f9b&pid=1-s2.0-S2225603224000274-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141408451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Insights into the origin of precipitation moisture for tropical cyclones during rapid intensification process","authors":"Albenis Pérez-Alarcón ,&nbsp;José C. Fernández-Alvarez ,&nbsp;Ricardo M. Trigo ,&nbsp;Raquel Nieto ,&nbsp;Luis Gimeno","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2024.05.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2024.05.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this study, we identified the moisture sources for the precipitation associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) during the rapid intensification (RI) process from 1980 to 2018 by applying a Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic method. We detected sixteen regions on a global scale for RI events distributed as follows: four in the North Atlantic (NATL), two in the Central and East Pacific Ocean (NEPAC), the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and South Indian Ocean (SIO), and three in the South Pacific Ocean (SPO) and the Western North Pacific Ocean (WNP). The moisture uptake (MU) mostly was from the regions where TCs underwent RI. The Western NATL, tropical NATL, Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the Central America and Mexico landmass supported ∼85.4% of the precipitating moisture in the NATL, while the latter source and the eastern North Pacific Ocean provided the higher amount of moisture in NEPAC (∼84.3%). The Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Peninsula were the major moisture sources in NIO, contributing approximately 81.3%. The eastern and western parts of the Indian Ocean supplied most of the atmospheric humidity in SIO (∼83.8%). The combined contributions (∼87.9%) from the western and central SPO and the Coral Sea were notably higher in SPO. Meanwhile, TCs in the WNP basin mostly received moisture from the western North Pacific Ocean, the Philippine Sea and the China Sea, accounting for 80.1%. The remaining moisture support in each basin came from the summed contributions of the remote sources. Overall, RI TCs gained more moisture up to 2500 km from the cyclone centre than those slow intensification (SI) and the total MU was approximately three times higher during RI than SI. Finally, the patterns of the MU differences respond to the typical pathways of moisture transport in each basin.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"13 2","pages":"Pages 72-87"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603224000250/pdfft?md5=4f6ddf8a053ed2ab35e8178e063376dc&pid=1-s2.0-S2225603224000250-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141043210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Forecasting tropical cyclone coastal and marine hazards and impacts","authors":"Nadao Kohno ,&nbsp;Cody Fritz ,&nbsp;Monica Sharma ,&nbsp;Robbie Berg ,&nbsp;Diana Greenslade ,&nbsp;Devon Telford ,&nbsp;Sakeasi Rabitu ,&nbsp;P.L.N. Murty ,&nbsp;M. Mohapatra ,&nbsp;Maria Cristina C. Uson","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2024.03.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2024.03.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The report highlights the significant progress over various regions with respect to understanding of coastal hazards, numerical modeling techniques and the generation &amp; dissemination of coastal hazard warnings and products. The developments over various regions in the globe during 2014–18 have been discussed in this report as presented during 10th Session of International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-X) at Bali, Indonesia. More specifically, various regions have started to confront the uncertainty that cannot be removed from TC analyses and forecasts and further communicate those hazards within the context of risk [probabilistic] based information. Progress also includes impact-based forecasts such as communicating coastal inundation information relative to total water level instead of storm surge, specifically (i.e., anomaly from astronomical tide and waves). Lastly, updates to model grid configuration, model resolution, and coupled dynamical systems continue to resolve the costal hazards more effectively. Those approaches have likely helped reduce loss of life relative to historical standards. However, regions agree that the generation and dissemination of coastal hazard information still need to be improved in view of growing population along the coast and thus increased exposure of life to coastal hazard.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"13 1","pages":"Pages 1-14"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603224000146/pdfft?md5=295f0be22be082ae3fc84803e4f2afae&pid=1-s2.0-S2225603224000146-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140282741","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The weakening effect of urbanization on tropical cyclone surface winds : An observational study for Shanghai","authors":"Lechuan Zhang ,&nbsp;Hui Yu ,&nbsp;Xiangyu Ao ,&nbsp;Shengming Tang","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2024.02.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2024.02.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The observation-reanalysis difference method (OMR) and wind profile fitting method were used to analyze the influence urbanization has on the near-surface wind speed in Shanghai during tropical cyclone events. The data used include daily wind speed data from the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory Station collected from 1991 to 2020, hourly wind speed data from 100 m high wind towers from 2017 to 2019, and reanalysis data that covered the same period. The results indicated that during tropical cyclone occurrence, the wind speed of the OMR in the central urban region was significantly lower than that in the suburban area, and the OMR declined more obviously over the year, down to −8 m/s in 2020. Urbanization leads to the increase of average wind weakening rate to be higher than the maximum wind weakening rate, causing the maximum weakening rate of the central urban region to the average wind over 80%, while maximum wind speed was less than 80%. The weakening rate of both the average and maximum wind speeds during tropical cyclone impacts is greater than the rate that the annual average wind speed was reduced. A logarithmic variation was visible in the wind profile of the island station during tropical cyclone occurrence, with an average friction velocity U∗ of 0.9389 m/s and an average rough length Z₀ of 0.4915 m. The wind speed during tropical cyclone events was higher than the three-year average wind speed within each layer. The suburban stations show a linear variation, and every hundred meters of height results in an increase of 5–6 m/s in the wind speed change rate. At 100 m of altitude, the wind speed in the suburban region is reduced by approximately 40%.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"13 1","pages":"Pages 15-23"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603224000110/pdfft?md5=6623a5096d43399f057bd779346bcc2b&pid=1-s2.0-S2225603224000110-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140467130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparative analysis of the rapid intensification of two super cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea","authors":"Longsheng Liu ,&nbsp;Yiwu Huang ,&nbsp;Lian Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2024.03.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2024.03.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A comparative analysis of the rapid intensification (RI) of super cyclonic storms Chapala (2015) and Kyarr (2019) in the Arabian Sea is conducted using the North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone data, microwave sounding images, the NOAA OISST data and the ERA5 reanalysis data. Results show that the subtropical westerly jet stream and the Southern Hemisphere anticyclonic circulation led to the formation of an obvious double-channel outflow from the northern and southern sides of the two storm centers, and the substantial inflow appeared at the eastern boundary layer of both storms. These promoted the vertical ascent motion and release of the latent heat of condensation. A warm sea surface is a necessary but not dominant factor for the RI of cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea. During the RI of Chapala and Kyarr, the deep vertical wind shear was less than 10 m s⁻¹; moreover, the mid-level humidity conditions favored the RI of the two cyclonic storms. Chapala had a single warm core, whereas Kyarr had double warm cores in the vertical direction. The impacts of the latent heat of fusion is more obvious for Chapala, and the potential vorticity in its inner core increases from 4.4 PVU to 8.8 PVU, whereas the potential vorticity and vorticity in the inner core of Kyarr do not change significantly. Microwave detection images show that both Chapala and Kyarr were accompanied by the formation of eyewalls during the RI phase, and the radius of maximum wind decreased and the maximum wind speed increased during the eyewall-thinning process. Both Chapala and Kyarr passed through a positive anomaly region of maximum potential intensity during the RI phase, which increases the possibility to develop to higher intensity after genesis.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"13 1","pages":"Pages 41-54"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603224000134/pdfft?md5=9b969405cbb808bdf834c388f713833c&pid=1-s2.0-S2225603224000134-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140271198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Direct assimilation of simulated radar reflectivity for typhoon In-fa using EnKF: Issue with state variables updating","authors":"Ziyue Wang ,&nbsp;Jingyao Luo ,&nbsp;Hong Li ,&nbsp;Yijie Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2024.02.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2024.02.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Using a convective scale WRF-GSI system and a reflectivity observation operator based on the double-moment microphysics (Thompson) scheme, simulated radar reflectivity data are produced and then directly assimilated with EnKF through Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) for the case of typhoon In-Fa (2021). We examined the ability of the EnKF to simultaneously estimate state variables and conducted sensitivity tests to evaluate the impact of updating different state variables. The results show that updating a full set of analysis variables can help obtain highly precise initial fields in the model and improve typhoon forecast skills. Excluding the horizontal wind update will affect the adjustment of the temperature field and the sea level pressure field during the cyclic assimilation process. Updating the variables directly related to the reflectivity operator alone could adjust hydrometers well, but the positive impact arising from the assimilation quickly vanishes during the forecast. In addition, this study also includes a quantitative RMSE analysis for each variable during the assimilation cycle and compares the effect of each schemes on different variables.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"13 1","pages":"Pages 24-32"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603224000122/pdfft?md5=57bc22efe0eefc76f130050fd7e4d0de&pid=1-s2.0-S2225603224000122-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140274480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Recent advances in landfalling tropical cyclone asymmetric rainfall mechanism and forecast verification over China","authors":"Zifeng Yu ,&nbsp;Peiyan Chen ,&nbsp;Fumin Ren ,&nbsp;Lichun Tang ,&nbsp;Weiwei Wang ,&nbsp;Hui Yu ,&nbsp;Kun Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2024.02.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2024.02.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Held every four years, the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone (IWTC) organized by the World Meteorological Organization has been a global leading conference in the field of tropical cyclone. In preparation for the 10th IWTC (IWTC-10) in December 2022, a summary of research advances of landfalling tropical cyclone (LTC) rainfall during past four years of 2019–2022 has been prepared. Some of the latest research advances has been summarized in Lamers et al. (2023), which reviewed the latest forecast and disaster prevention methods related to TC precipitation. As a supplement, this article mainly focuses on the recent advances in LTC asymmetric rainfall evolution mechanisms and forecast verification results over China. Some new findings have been made in the LTC inner-core size relationship with the asymmetric rainfall distribution. Some major advances focused on asymmetric microphysical characteristics in the TC rainbands. Current simulation and forecast performances of LTC precipitation have been analyzed, and different forecast error sources for rainfall during different landfall stages of TC were compared. To estimate the risk of TC rainfall hazards in China, a parameterized Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Model was reviewed as well in this article.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"13 1","pages":"Pages 33-40"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603224000109/pdfft?md5=3362c5f14f07a81eb225ed5cf563f078&pid=1-s2.0-S2225603224000109-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140281809","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Recommendations for improved tropical cyclone formation and position probabilistic Forecast products","authors":"Jason P. Dunion ,&nbsp;Chris Davis ,&nbsp;Helen Titley ,&nbsp;Helen Greatrex ,&nbsp;Munehiko Yamaguchi ,&nbsp;John Methven ,&nbsp;Raghavendra Ashrit ,&nbsp;Zhuo Wang ,&nbsp;Hui Yu ,&nbsp;Anne-Claire Fontan ,&nbsp;Alan Brammer ,&nbsp;Matthew Kucas ,&nbsp;Matthew Ford ,&nbsp;Philippe Papin ,&nbsp;Fernando Prates ,&nbsp;Carla Mooney ,&nbsp;Andrew Kruczkiewicz ,&nbsp;Paromita Chakraborty ,&nbsp;Andrew Burton ,&nbsp;Mark DeMaria ,&nbsp;Jonathan L. Vigh","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.11.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.11.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Prediction of the potentially devastating impact of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) relies substantially on numerical prediction systems. Due to the limited predictability of TCs and the need to express forecast confidence and possible scenarios, it is vital to exploit the benefits of dynamic ensemble forecasts in operational TC forecasts and warnings. RSMCs, TCWCs, and other forecast centers value probabilistic guidance for TCs, but the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) found that the “pull-through” of probabilistic information to operational warnings using those forecasts is slow. IWTC-9 recommendations led to the formation of the WMO/WWRP Tropical Cyclone-Probabilistic Forecast Products (TC-PFP) project, which is also endorsed as a WMO Seamless GDPFS Pilot Project. The main goal of TC-PFP is to coordinate across forecast centers to help identify best practice guidance for probabilistic TC forecasts. TC-PFP is being implemented in 3 phases: Phase 1 (TC formation and position); Phase 2 (TC intensity and structure); and Phase 3 (TC related rainfall and storm surge). This article provides a summary of Phase 1 and reviews the current state of the science of probabilistic forecasting of TC formation and position. There is considerable variability in the nature and interpretation of forecast products based on ensemble information, making it challenging to transfer knowledge of best practices across forecast centers. Communication among forecast centers regarding the effectiveness of different approaches would be helpful for conveying best practices. Close collaboration with experts experienced in communicating complex probabilistic TC information and sharing of best practices between centers would help to ensure effective decisions can be made based on TC forecasts. Finally, forecast centers need timely access to ensemble information that has consistent, user-friendly ensemble information. Greater consistency across forecast centers in data accessibility, probabilistic forecast products, and warnings and their communication to users will produce more reliable information and support improved outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"12 4","pages":"Pages 241-258"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139296954","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Phase transitions between tropical, subtropical, and extratropical cyclones: A review from IWTC-10","authors":"Kimberly Wood ,&nbsp;Wataru Yanase ,&nbsp;Jack Beven ,&nbsp;Suzana J. Camargo ,&nbsp;Joseph B. Courtney ,&nbsp;Chris Fogarty ,&nbsp;Junya Fukuda ,&nbsp;Naoko Kitabatake ,&nbsp;Matthew Kucas ,&nbsp;Ron McTaggart-Cowan ,&nbsp;Michelle Simões Reboita ,&nbsp;Jacopo Riboldi","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.11.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.11.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This review, which was adapted from a Tenth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-10) report, discusses research findings and operational practices relevant to cyclone types and phase transitions (extratropical, subtropical, and tropical). The cyclone phase space (CPS) method is widely used in both historical investigations and real-time evaluation of cyclone type and transition; however, CPS parameter values depend on input data resolution, and universal thresholds do not currently exist to delineate when a cyclone transitions from one type to another. Assessments of phase transitions in a changing climate highlight potential latitude shifts in extratropical transition and increased potential for tropical transition, but realistic projections of future trends likely require high-resolution simulations that can capture the cyclone warm core.</div><div>Operational meteorological centers apply varied approaches to cyclone classification via CPS parameters and other criteria, some of which depend on the tropical basin, yet these approaches cannot fully address challenges in operational classification and subsequently in communicating risks associated with these phase transitions. We recommend a multivariate historical assessment of tropical and subtropical cyclones across all basins in which they occur, including the South Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, to identify the potential for a more universal cyclone classification approach that meets operational needs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"12 4","pages":"Pages 294-308"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143241452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unusual tracks: Statistical, controlling factors and model prediction","authors":"Ying Li ,&nbsp;Julian Heming ,&nbsp;Ryan D. Torn ,&nbsp;Shaojun Lai ,&nbsp;Yinglong Xu ,&nbsp;Xiaomeng Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.12.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.12.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The progress of research and forecast techniques for tropical cyclone (TC) unusual tracks (UTs) in recent years is reviewed. A major research focus has been understanding which processes contribute to the evolution of the TC and steering flow over time, especially the reasons for the sharp changes in TC motion over a short period of time. When TCs are located in the vicinity of monsoon gyres, TC track forecast become more difficult to forecast due to the complex interaction between the TCs and the gyres. Moreover, the convection and latent heat can also feed back into the synoptic-scale features and in turn modify the steering flow. In this report, two cases with UTs are examined, along with an assessment of numerical model forecasts. Advances in numerical modelling and in particular the development of ensemble forecasting systems have proved beneficial in the prediction of such TCs. There are still great challenges in operational track forecasts and warnings, such as the initial TC track forecast, which is based on a poor pre-genesis analysis, TC track forecasts during interaction between two or more TCs and track predictions after landfall. Recently, artificial intelligence (AI) methods such as machine learning or deep learning have been widely applied in the field of TC forecasting. For TC track forecasting, a more effective method of center location is obtained by combining data from various sources and fully exploring the potential of AI, which provides more possibilities for improving TC prediction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"12 4","pages":"Pages 309-322"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138986493","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}