Tropical Cyclone Research and Review最新文献

{"title":"Cyclone-Induced Tide–Surge–Wave Compound Flooding Along the Bangladesh Coast: Delft3D–SWAN Modelling of Sidr, Amphan and Sitrang","authors":"Aysha Akter,&nbsp;S.M. Ataullah BURP","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.07.013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.07.013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study presents an integrated modelling approach to assessing cyclone-induced tide–surge–wave compound flooding along the Bangladesh coast, focusing on Cyclones Sidr, Amphan and Sitrang. In this study, compound flooding is considered in the restricted coastal context, where astronomical tide, cyclone-induced storm surge and wave action interact to intensify inundation. Rainfall-runoff and upstream river discharge are not dynamically coupled in the present framework and are acknowledged as limitations and future extensions. A coupled Delft3D-FLOW–SWAN model, supported by Delft Dashboard, was used to simulate storm-induced water levels, wind fields and wave processes using historical cyclone-track data from the Indian Meteorological Department. The model was calibrated and validated using observed tidal water levels and significant wave heights from available coastal stations, showing good agreement with recorded events. Sensitivity analysis indicated that modelled surge elevations were strongly influenced by wind drag and nearshore roughness, while the separate contribution of atmospheric pressure requires further controlled simulations. The results show that Cyclone Amphan generated the largest inundated area, affecting approximately 9076 km², equivalent to about 19.29% of the coastal belt, whereas Cyclone Sidr produced the highest simulated inundation depth, reaching up to 6 <em>m</em>. The novelty of this study lies in developing a calibrated Delft3D-FLOW–SWAN tide–surge–wave modelling framework and an event-specific cyclone inundation dataset for the Bangladesh coast. The generated cyclone footprints provide spatially explicit information on inundation depth and extent and can support future coastal risk mapping, early-warning applications and decision-support system development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"15 3","pages":"Pages 527-548"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149033156","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Meteorological Factors Contributing to Missed Approaches of Landing Aircraft at Taibei Taoyuan International Airport During Severe Typhoon Podul in 2025","authors":"Man-Lok Chong,&nbsp;Kai-Kwong Lai,&nbsp;Yan-Yu Leung,&nbsp;Pak-Wai Chan","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.07.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.07.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>When Severe Typhoon Podul affected southern Taiwan Island in mid-August 2025, a number of landing aircraft at Taoyuan International Airport in northern Taiwan Island conducted missed approaches (MAPs). This paper studies the potential meteorological factors contributing to the MAPs. From the flight data analysis, the MAPs were likely to be related to significant headwind changes, significant crosswind changes, and severe low-level turbulence. Such factors may be related to the boundary layer structure of the typhoon and the terrain upstream of the airport. To study these factors further, high resolution numerical weather prediction modelling using a mesoscale meteorological model has been performed by incorporating the terrain upstream of the airport. It is found that headwind and crosswind changes are more sensitive to the terrain, though the simulation results do not accurately reproduce the absolute magnitudes of headwind and crosswind changes as recorded by the aircraft, due to limitations of the turbulence parameterization scheme. The severe turbulence in the MAP cases may be related to mainly the boundary layer of the typhoon, and enhanced by terrain. Further research directions from this case are also discussed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"15 3","pages":"Pages 458-476"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149033160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the Sensitivity of WRF Model Precipitation Simulation to Cumulus Convection Parameterization Schemes: A Comparative Study of Typhoon Lekima (2019) and Typhoon In-Fa (2021)","authors":"Dan Wang,&nbsp;Zhenshou Yu,&nbsp;Zhengqi Wang,&nbsp;Meiying Dong","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.07.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.07.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A better understanding of landfalling tropical cyclone (LTC) precipitation is crucial for accurate severe weather forecasting. However, it remains uncertain whether explicit convection or cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) yield superior performance in high-resolution models, highlighting the need for further research to identify optimal configurations for regional precipitation simulation. To address this issue, this study utilizes the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to conduct numerical simulations of precipitation associated with LTCs Lekima (2019) and In-Fa (2021) during the periods around landfall. The study systematically compares the influences of six different CPSs (the Kain–Fritsch (new Eta) scheme, the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme, the Grell–Freitas ensemble scheme, etc.) and horizontal resolutions (18, 6 and 2 km) on the simulated precipitation characteristics for these two events. The results show that: (1) The model reasonably captures key precipitation features; scale-aware CPSs effectively reduce relative errors, whereas traditional CPSs perform better in reproducing spatial patterns; (2) High-resolution simulations improve spatial correlation (by approximately 0.1) over the concentrated precipitation areas and better resolve localized structures of heavy rainfall; (3) Scale-aware CPSs significantly enhance the simulation of intense precipitation by optimizing critical physical processes, such as moisture convergence, vertical motion, and ice-phase microphysics. Moreover, (4) they exhibit negligible convective contribution (&lt;5%), in contrast to traditional CPSs, which display a pronounced dependence on grid resolution. These findings demonstrate that scale-aware CPSs are more sensitive to changes in model resolution, and when combined with high-resolution grids, substantially improve the accuracy of heavy rainfall simulations in LTCs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"15 3","pages":"Pages 348-363"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149033165","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Tropical Cyclone Patterns Near Sri Lanka and Their Environmental Controls: A 45-Year Analysis (1980–2024)","authors":"Warnasooriya Mudiyanselage Ishini Tecla Warnasooriya,&nbsp;Hironori Fudeyasu,&nbsp;Garu Muni Wathsala Lakpriya Gunawardena,&nbsp;Anjana Junius Vidanaralage","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.07.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.07.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tropical cyclones (TCs) are infrequent but potentially high-impact hazards for Sri Lanka. Using IBTrACS best-track data and ERA5 reanalysis for 1980–2024, a Sri Lanka-centered climatology was developed to characterize storms approaching the island and the large-scale environmental conditions associated with their occurrence. Storms were identified using proximity thresholds within a 700 km screening domain; 67 TCs satisfied the ≤100 km direct-impact criterion, corresponding to approximately 1.5 events yr⁻¹. Sri Lanka-influencing tracks were dominated by Bay of Bengal systems propagating westward to west-northwestward at low latitudes. Peak-intensity timing near Sri Lanka was strongly seasonal, with a primary maximum in October–December and a secondary peak in May, consistent with the broader bimodal seasonality of North Indian Ocean TC activity. Storm-event rainfall over Sri Lanka, accumulated within a fixed ±48 h window centered on closest approach, showed substantial overlap between direct-impact storms and near-miss storms, defined here as systems whose minimum center-to-coast distance was &gt;100 km and ≤300 km. This result indicates that offshore storms can still produce notable rainfall over land even when their centers remain away from the coast. Trend analysis indicated no statistically significant long-term change in direct-impact frequency or genesis location over 1980–2024. Wavelet analysis further suggested that variability in annual direct-impact counts is weighted more strongly toward interannual than lower-frequency timescales, although no robust long-period oscillation is inferred because of the short record length and edge effects. Environmental changes were selective rather than uniform: storm-peak deep-layer shear increased significantly; OND mean SST and RH700 also increased significantly, whereas OND lower-tropospheric wind extremes, low-level vorticity, and upper-level divergence showed no significant long-term trends. Overall, the results show that near-miss storms remain rainfall-relevant for Sri Lanka and provide a Sri Lanka-focused hazard climatology linking storm proximity, rainfall-footprint relevance, and environmental conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"15 3","pages":"Pages 426-437"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149033157","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Slab Boundary Layer Model Underpinning the Boundary Layer Control of Translating Tropical Cyclones: Comparison with an Idealized Three-Dimensional Numerical Simulation","authors":"Roger K. Smith,&nbsp;Michael T. Montgomery","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.07.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.07.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>An oft quoted benchmark for understanding the pattern of boundary-layer induced vertical motion in a translating tropical cyclone is based on approximate solutions for a steady slab boundary layer beneath a prescribed, uniformly translating axisymmetric vortex in gradient wind balance. The fidelity of this framework is investigated here in the context of a recent, idealized, three-dimensional, convection-permitting, numerical model simulation of a translating tropical cyclone in a deep uniform flow. These new analyses show that the slab boundary layer model captures rather well the spatial structure of the inner-core wind asymmetries in the boundary-layer, but overestimates the magnitude of these asymmetries. We investigate also to what extent the flow emanating from the boundary layer influences the pattern of deep convection in the intensifying vortex in the numerical simulation. In this simulation, the location of maximum ascent during the mature stage is displaced azimuthally upstream in the mid-troposphere compared with that at the boundary layer top, consistent with the differential rotation in a warm cored vortex where the azimuthal velocity decreases with height. This vertical-motion tilt pattern is a robust feature also of innermost arcs of subsidence inside the eye region. During the period of intensification and maturity, the strength of ascent in the numerical simulation is larger in the mid-troposphere than at the boundary layer top as would be expected in a region of buoyant updraughts. However, this velocity difference is reversed in sign during the later decay period, suggesting the decay is linked to the inability of deep convection to remove mass at the rate that it is being expelled by the boundary layer. Some implications of these findings are discussed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"15 3","pages":"Pages 416-425"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149033158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Study of Low Level Turbulence Impact to Hong Kong International Airport for the Case Severe Tropical Storm Wutip in June 2025","authors":"Y.Y. Leung,&nbsp;M.L. Chong,&nbsp;P.W. Chan,&nbsp;P. Cheung","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.07.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.07.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The characteristics of low level turbulence at the Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) under the influence of Severe Tropical Storm Wutip in June 2025 is studied. Multiple sources of turbulence observations were studied and intercomparison analysis was performed. There were more than 80 reports of windshear and turbulence received from pilots in HKIA. The aircraft data derived Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) data and the airline downlink EDR data was compared with those obtained from Doppler Light Detection And Ranging (LIDARs) at HKIA. The LIDAR EDR data includes both the plan position indicator (PPI) scan EDR and glide path scan EDR. It is found that there is a positive relationship between the aircraft mean EDR values with LIDAR PPI scan when considering the values of LIDAR PPI scan over the corridor, with the correlation coefficient reaching a maximum of 0.38. Due to the time window required for the calculation of LIDAR EDR data, the higher frequency peak EDR values cannot be well captured. Besides, further analysis found that the turbulence reports are found to mainly occur at times when the crosswind strength is peaked. Studying the wind strength and period suggests that during the peak wind speed, the shedding period is shorter, indicating possible vortex shedding or periodic waves. This gives better understanding on the wind characteristics when it flows across the Lantau island mountains in the vicinity of HKIA. It also demonstrates the usefulness of aircraft turbulence data for developing and verifying EDR products from meteorological instruments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"15 3","pages":"Pages 477-498"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149033161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"In-Situ Observations and Storm Surge Impact Assessment of Super Typhoon Fung-Wong (2025) in Aurora Province, Philippines","authors":"Marco Polo A. Ibañez,&nbsp;Wilfredo H. Tuazon,&nbsp;Lean Michael A. Malabanan,&nbsp;Generich H. Capuli,&nbsp;John A. Manalo,&nbsp;Robb P. Gile,&nbsp;Michael S. Bala,&nbsp;Roy A. Badilla,&nbsp;Nathaniel T. Servando","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.07.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.07.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In situ observations during tropical cyclone (TC) landfall remain limited in the Philippines despite being one of the world’s most tropical cyclone-prone countries. This study documents a storm-chasing mission conducted by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) during Super Typhoon Fung-Wong (local name <em>Uwan</em>), which made landfall over Aurora Province on 09 November 2025. The storm chaser team was deployed on 08 November 2025 at the Aurora Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office (PDRRMO) in Baler (15.75°N, 121.54°E), enabling near-real-time monitoring within the storm’s inner-core environment. The mission integrated high-resolution surface observations, Doppler radar analyses, and rapid post-event storm surge surveys. Surface observations obtained near the inner eyewall (∼45 km from the circulation center) captured a minimum pressure of 963.2 hPa, peak sustained winds of 86.5 km h⁻¹, and a maximum 3-s wind gust of 128.96 km h⁻¹. Comparative observations across Aurora Province revealed coherent pressure evolution but notable spatial variability in wind speeds, with stronger winds occuring in the right-front quadrant and at more exposed, elevated stations, highlighting the influence of storm geometry and local terrain exposure. Radar reflectivity mosaics and vertical cross sections indicated a well-defined warm-core structure prior to landfall, followed by increasing eyewall asymmetry and structural degradation associated with terrain interaction and a possible incomplete eyewall replacement cycle. Post-event surveys conducted across 14 coastal communities documented high-water marks ranging from 2.4 to 7.6 m above mean sea level, with the highest values observed along embayed coastlines. Survey results indicate that wave setup and coastal geometry played dominant roles in amplifying total water levels. Overall, this study highlights the value of integrated storm-chasing activities in bridging real-time forecasting, in situ observations, post-event hazard assessment, and underscores the importance of high-resolution field observations for improving TC forecasting, storm surge modeling, and risk communication in the Philippines.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"15 3","pages":"Pages 364-380"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149033140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Adaptive Multi-Branch Generative Adversarial Network With Parallel Attention for Robust Tropical Cyclone Forecasting","authors":"Guangxin He,&nbsp;Xiaoyu Li,&nbsp;Jie Feng,&nbsp;Jingjia Luo,&nbsp;Xun Li","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.07.012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.07.012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) wind fields is crucial for disaster mitigation, yet remains challenging, particularly for extreme events. Existing deep learning models often struggle to capture the diverse dynamics across the TC lifecycle and tend to under-predict intense storms. To address these issues, we propose a Multi-Attention Spatio-Temporal Generative Adversarial Network (MAST-GAN), which couples a multi-source feature encoder that jointly processes environmental fields via an CNN, Transformer backbone and TC attributes via an MLP, then fuses them with adaptive gating, a triple parallel attention fusion module that simultaneously emphasizes channel, spatial and temporal cues, and a multi-branch dynamic prediction head that adapts across the lifecycle by balancing global and TC-core forecasts while using an auxiliary branch to enhance extreme-event prediction. Experiments on a large dataset built from ERA5 and IBTrACS show that MAST-GAN improves TC wind field reconstruction and forecasting accuracy over strong baselines, with clear gains on an extreme-typhoon test set measured by RMSE and MAE, and case studies on Typhoons Bebinca and Pulasan further confirm realistic and robust wind field evolution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"15 3","pages":"Pages 510-526"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149033163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Opportunities for Advancing the Understanding and Prediction of Typhoons in the South China Sea With Multi-aircraft Missions: Super Typhoon Ragasa (2025)","authors":"Robert F. Rogers,&nbsp;Pak Wai Chan,&nbsp;Ping Cheung,&nbsp;Man Lok Chong,&nbsp;Yufan Dai,&nbsp;Zeyi Niu,&nbsp;Jie Tang,&nbsp;Shanghong Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.07.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.07.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A summary is provided of aircraft missions into Super Typhoon Ragasa (2025), the most intense typhoon of the 2025 season that impacted the Philippines and south China coast. The aircraft missions occurred as Ragasa was approaching Hong Kong, with the Challenger aircraft from the Hong Kong Observatory and the King Air aircraft from the Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center conducting joint missions into the typhoon, marking only the second time that such two-plane missions have occurred in the South China Sea. Unique measurements from these aircraft, including deep-layer dropsondes within the moat region between Ragasa's primary and outer eyewalls and between the outer eyewall and spiral rainband, are described. Additionally, surface wind radii as measured by the dropsondes, and how they compare with satellite measurements provided ∼12 h after the aircraft missions, are presented. The temporal separation between the aircraft and satellite measurements provides the ability to monitor the evolution of the surface wind as the typhoon approaches land, a valuable observation for forecasters and storm surge modelers. An evaluation of the Shanghai Typhoon Model wind field based on a comparison with dropsonde observations is also performed, identifying potential sources of biases in the model and pointing toward ways to improve the model.</div><div>Using these missions as a guide, suggestions for more fully exploiting the complementary capabilities of each aircraft are provided. These suggestions include optimizing the coordinated sampling to provide simultaneous measurements of surface winds in various quadrants and radii and providing dropsonde profiles of temperature, moisture, and pressure in the vicinity of <em>in situ</em> measurements of microphysics properties from the King Air. The use of composite datasets of dropsondes and Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer is also discussed as a way to obtain robust, quantifiable characterizations of tropical cyclone structure and how it relates to intensity change and associated hazards such as storm surge and rainfall, providing a way to advance the understanding and prediction of hazards and impacts from landfalling tropical cyclones.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"15 3","pages":"Pages 400-415"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149033142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On the Physical Integrity of Potential Intensity Theory","authors":"Michael T. Montgomery,&nbsp;Roger K. Smith","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.07.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.07.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Emanuel’s potential intensity theory is widely accepted as providing a useful upper bound on tropical cyclone intensity for both forecasting and climate assessment purposes. However, recent revised observational and laboratory estimates of the mean value for the enthalpy and momentum exchange coefficients at near-surface wind speeds in major hurricanes have reduced the ratio of these coefficients to such an extent that potential intensity estimates, which depend on this ratio, are significantly reduced. In view of evidence that such estimates are already up to two intensity categories too low, a re-appraisal of the theory is called for. Such is the purpose of this paper. We have identified a range of issues with the theory that call into question its physical integrity. Some of the issues include the lack of a rotational constraint on the predicted intensity, the silence on the radial distance that air parcels are drawn inwards above the boundary layer, as well as the lack of dependence on the gravitational acceleration of the planet. Arguably, the most major issue is that the assumed steady-state flow configuration, with outflow everywhere above the boundary layer and exactly moist neutral ascent, is not dynamically consistent and could not emerge from any physically realistic initial-value problem. Some implications of these findings are discussed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"15 3","pages":"Pages 499-509"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149033162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}