Tropical Cyclone Research and Review最新文献

Evaluating the Impact of a Scale-aware Three-dimensional Turbulent Kinetic Energy Scheme on Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System 在飓风分析与预报系统中评估具有尺度感知的三维湍流动能方案对热带气旋预报的影响

IF 4.1 4区地球科学

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.02.001

Kwun Yip Fung , Ping Zhu , Xuejin Zhang , Jun A. Zhang , Chuan-Kai Wang , Bin Liu

{"title":"Evaluating the Impact of a Scale-aware Three-dimensional Turbulent Kinetic Energy Scheme on Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System","authors":"Kwun Yip Fung , Ping Zhu , Xuejin Zhang , Jun A. Zhang , Chuan-Kai Wang , Bin Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.02.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.02.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A Scale-Aware Three-Dimensional Turbulent Kinetic Energy scheme (SA3DTKE) was developed 1) to incorporate three-dimensional shear, transport, and pressure diffusion in predicting turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and 2) to homogenize the turbulent transport calculation used in large-eddy simulations with one-dimensional planetary boundary layer schemes used in large-/meso-scale models accounting for eddies across scales from small isotropic to large anisotropic turbulence. This study examines the impacts of the SA3DTKE scheme implemented in the Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System (HAFS) model on tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts by analyzing HAFS simulations of hurricanes Kirk (2024) and Leslie (2024). Results show that SA3DTKE reduces the forecasting bias of track and intensity. SA3DTKE modulates the eyewall and rainband convection and thereby affects TC track via horizontal and vertical advection of wavenumber-1 potential vorticity asymmetries. SA3DTKE reduces the negative intensity bias through enhancing eddy diffusivity and TKE in the lower troposphere, leading to enhanced surface latent heating to maintain a stronger warm core structure. At the same time, stronger frictional force also generated stronger agradient forcing to facilitate the inward transport of absolute vorticity creating a stronger tropical cyclone denoted by the enhanced tangential wind and reflectivity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"15 1","pages":"Pages 43-62"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147584463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Attribution of the 2023 Beijing Extreme Rainfall Event in the Context of Climate Change 气候变化背景下2023年北京极端降雨事件的归因

IF 4.1 4区地球科学

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.02.003

Wenyuan Tang , Xiangbo Feng

{"title":"Attribution of the 2023 Beijing Extreme Rainfall Event in the Context of Climate Change","authors":"Wenyuan Tang , Xiangbo Feng","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.02.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.02.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In late July 2023, following the landfall of Typhoon Doksuri in southeast China, north China experienced an unprecedented extreme precipitation event, known as <em>the 2023 Beijing extreme rainfall event</em>. This event resulted in widespread flooding, river overflows, and numerous landslides, causing significant societal and economic impacts. During this post-landfall event, 1379 meteorological stations in north China recorded their highest ever 24-h accumulated rainfall, with a maximum of 640 mm. Here, we investigate the large-scale environmental drivers for this event and assess the influence of climate change, via an analytical approach. We first attribute the unusual northward passage of Typhoon Doksuri’s remnant to an anomalously strong North Pacific Subtropical High (NPSH) and link the subsequent persistent extreme precipitation in north China to the presence of a strong North Blocking (NB) related also to the expanded NPSH. Notably, such anomalous features of both NPSH and NB resemble their long-term trends under global warming. Based on observations from 1951 to 2023, we found 46 typhoons exhibiting a similar northward post-landfall trajectory after making landfall in southeast China. Among these, 11 occurred under anomalously strong NB conditions, whereas only 3 were under weak NB conditions. Our further composite analysis indicates that the presence of anomalous NB not only increases the likelihood of typhoon remnants affecting north China but also amplifies the precipitation rate. Finally, we show that the frequency and persistence of strong NB conditions have significantly increased over the past 44 years (1980–2023), closely associated with a strengthening NPSH and rapid sea surface temperature warming, with additional modulation by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Our analytical approach demonstrates the increasing risk of post-landfall extreme precipitation events in north China with climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"15 1","pages":"Pages 69-80"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147584705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Integrated Simulation and Risk Mapping of Cyclone ‘Remal’ (2024) over the Bangladesh Coast using WRF and AHP-GIS Framework 利用WRF和AHP-GIS框架对孟加拉国海岸气旋“Remal”（2024）进行综合模拟和风险制图

IF 4.1 4区地球科学

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.02.005

Fatema TuzZohora Niha , Md. Zillur Rahman , Muhammad Abul Kalam Mallik , Md. Mahfuzar Rahman , Kazi Jebunnesa

{"title":"Integrated Simulation and Risk Mapping of Cyclone ‘Remal’ (2024) over the Bangladesh Coast using WRF and AHP-GIS Framework","authors":"Fatema TuzZohora Niha , Md. Zillur Rahman , Muhammad Abul Kalam Mallik , Md. Mahfuzar Rahman , Kazi Jebunnesa","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.02.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.02.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tropical cyclones are among the most devastating natural hazards for the coastal communities of the Bay of Bengal, especially in the low-lying and densely populated regions of Bangladesh. This study adopts a multidisciplinary approach to assess cyclone-related hazards and risks by integrating high-resolution numerical weather prediction and geospatial risk mapping. Cyclone “Remal” (May 2024) was simulated using the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model across five initialization times to evaluate forecasting accuracy. Concurrently, a scenario-based Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was employed within a GIS framework to assess cyclone risk, incorporating sixteen spatial indicators related to hazard, vulnerability, and exposure across 14 coastal districts. The WRF model performed best when initialized on 26 May, with a positional error of 37.4 km and a time error of 3.5 h’ delay, closely matching observed data from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department. The model accurately reproduced track, intensity, and associated meteorological parameters such as wind speed, pressure, humidity, and rainfall. The geospatial risk assessment identified 15.8 % of the coastal region particularly Satkhira, southern Khulna, Patuakhali, and Bhola, as “very high-risk,” based on combined hazard exposure and socio-demographic vulnerability. Together, these findings demonstrate the value of integrating climatological analysis, real-time cyclone simulation, and spatial risk assessment to strengthen early warning systems, strengthen disaster risk reduction, and guide climate-resilient development planning in Bangladesh’s cyclone-prone coastal zones.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"15 1","pages":"Pages 92-120"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147584708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Unveiling the Link: Fog Evolution in the Indo-Gangetic Plain in Presence of the Tropical Cyclone 揭示联系：热带气旋存在下印度-恒河平原的雾演变

IF 4.1 4区地球科学

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.01.001

Avinash N. Parde , Sachin D. Ghude , Rizwan Ahmed , Narendra Gokul Dhangar , R.K. Jenamani

{"title":"Unveiling the Link: Fog Evolution in the Indo-Gangetic Plain in Presence of the Tropical Cyclone","authors":"Avinash N. Parde , Sachin D. Ghude , Rizwan Ahmed , Narendra Gokul Dhangar , R.K. Jenamani","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.01.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.01.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) experiences severe fog episodes predominantly during the peak winter months (December–February). However, the onset and dynamical drivers of fog during the pre-winter period (20 November to 15 December) remain relatively unexplored. This study investigates the teleconnections between North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and the evolution of widespread fog events over the IGP during this early winter phase. Utilizing 20 years (2000–2019) of multi-station visibility data, TC tracks, and ERA5 reanalysis, we establish a robust link between cyclonic activity and inland fog formation. Our analysis reveals that 12 TCs (11 in the Bay of Bengal, 1 in the Arabian Sea) coincided with widespread fog events, affecting approximately 30%–56% of observational stations. Contrary to hypotheses suggesting direct moisture transport as the primary driver, we demonstrate that the modulation is dynamically driven by TC-induced large-scale subsidence. Composite diagnostics of Omega (vertical velocity) and geopotential heights reveal that active TCs trigger a distinct subtropical subsidence belt extending over the IGP. This enhanced mid-tropospheric subsidence (positive Omega anomalies) creates a strong stable layer that traps boundary layer moisture and suppresses vertical mixing, independent of the TC’s intensity. These findings identify a critical synoptic precursor for pre-winter fog, suggesting that monitoring TC-induced subsidence teleconnections can significantly improve early-season fog forecasting over the Indian subcontinent.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"15 1","pages":"Pages 1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147584712","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Comment on “On the Physics of the New Time-dependent Theory of Tropical Cyclone Intensification” by Smith and Montgomery (2025) 评Smith和Montgomery《论热带气旋增强新时变理论的物理学》（2025）

IF 4.1 4区地球科学

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.01.003

Yuqing Wang , Zhe-Min Tan , Yuanlong Li

{"title":"Comment on “On the Physics of the New Time-dependent Theory of Tropical Cyclone Intensification” by Smith and Montgomery (2025)","authors":"Yuqing Wang , Zhe-Min Tan , Yuanlong Li","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.01.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.01.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Smith and Montgomery (2025, hereafter SM25) questioned the physical basis of the time-dependent theory of tropical cyclone (TC) intensification proposed by Wang et al. (2021, hereafter W21). Their main criticisms concern the locality of the closure parameter A′, the lack of inflow above the boundary layer (BL), and the use of an empirically calibrated parameter in model validation. Here we clarify these issues and restate the physical framework of W21. The theory applies local thermodynamic quasi-equilibrium (TQE) at the contracting radius of maximum wind (RMW). Eyewall heating, which is represented implicitly rather than prognosed explicitly, induces weak inflow in the mid-lower troposphere, leading to inward RMW contraction as a process of the gradient wind adjustment, a balanced response consistent with classical vortex spin-up mechanism. The apparent inward migration of absolute angular-momentum (<em>M</em>) surfaces can equivalently be viewed in an Eulerian tendency sense, where the vertical-advection term −ω ∂M/∂p dominates, reconciling the interpretation with the balanced dynamics framework. The parameter A′ represents the degree of non-congruence between <em>M</em> and saturated-moist-entropy (s∗) surfaces at the top of the boundary layer and can be interpreted physically as a “ventilation” parameter in the eyewall. Its empirically determined intensity dependence, confirmed using extended full-physics axisymmetric model ensemble simulations (Li et al. 2024) and best-track data (Xu and Wang 2022), captures consistent intensification behavior across independent datasets. Moreover, a recent extension of the theory (under review) eliminates A′ entirely by explicitly resolving the vortex structure. With these clarifications, the W21 framework remains a compact yet physically consistent model that reconciles thermodynamic and dynamic perspectives of TC intensification.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"15 1","pages":"Pages 23-28"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147584461","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Axisymmetric Slab Boundary Layer Model Underpinning the Boundary Layer Control of Tropical Cyclones 支撑热带气旋边界层控制的轴对称平板边界层模式

IF 4.1 4区地球科学

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.02.008

Roger K. Smith , Michael T. Montgomery

{"title":"The Axisymmetric Slab Boundary Layer Model Underpinning the Boundary Layer Control of Tropical Cyclones","authors":"Roger K. Smith , Michael T. Montgomery","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.02.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.02.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The dynamics of the slab boundary layer model for an axisymmetric vortex are re-examined in the light of the continued relevance of this model as a benchmark for understanding aspects of tropical cyclone structure. Of particular relevance is the control the boundary layer has on the location of deep convection. Using two different methods to solve for the steady nonlinear boundary layer flow, it is shown that in relatively narrow vortices, the location of maximum ascent out of the boundary layer lies inside the radius of maximum gradient wind. In contrast, as the breadth of the gradient wind profile increases, the location of maximum ascent moves outwards beyond that of the maximum gradient wind. These new findings help to understand airborne Doppler radar observations of certain structural differences between rapidly developing and mature storms. Shown also is the propensity of the boundary layer flow of broad vortices to produce secondary maxima of tangential wind and ascent out of the boundary layer well beyond the radius of maximum gradient wind. This intrinsic boundary layer feature has relevance to understanding secondary eyewall formation. Some implications of the new calculations to translating vortices and to the theory of potential intensity are discussed also.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"15 1","pages":"Pages 148-160"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147584711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Research on the Response of the Acoustic Structure in the Upper Ocean during Hurricane Transit 飓风过境过程中上层海洋声结构响应研究

IF 4.1 4区地球科学

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.02.004

Wen Zhang , Boyuan Duan , Jian Shi , Peng Jiang , Qiankun Yu , M.V. Subrahmanyam

{"title":"Research on the Response of the Acoustic Structure in the Upper Ocean during Hurricane Transit","authors":"Wen Zhang , Boyuan Duan , Jian Shi , Peng Jiang , Qiankun Yu , M.V. Subrahmanyam","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.02.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.02.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Communication and target detection in underwater acoustics depend significantly on the acoustic structure of the upper ocean, influenced by dispersion processes occurring within it. This study analyzed the hydrological characteristics and sound velocity structures of the upper ocean before, during, and after three consecutive hurricanes in 2017 in the North Atlantic, as well as the acoustic velocity structure response of the upper ocean during transit. Data from hurricanes and underwater glider observations provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) were analyzed to determine the distance between the hurricane and the glider. Hydrological data was utilized to compute the sound velocity profiles and time series of acoustic characteristics over the upper ocean before, during, and after hurricane transit. The acoustic structure of the upper ocean altered when the hurricane was 2000 km from the glider, revealing variations depending on whether the hurricane approached from the left (left-side hurricane) or the right (right-side hurricane). The findings indicated a consistent sound profile above the primary and deeper main sound channel, with sound intensity varying—stronger on the left side of the hurricane and weaker on the right side. The analysis revealed that the left hurricane experienced an increase in positive gradient intensity from roughly 0.0228 s<sup>−1</sup> to 0.092 s<sup>−1</sup>, while the right hurricane exhibited a decrease in amplitude from approximately 0.0016 s<sup>−1</sup> to 0.0161 s<sup>−1</sup>.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"15 1","pages":"Pages 81-91"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147584707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assessing Agricultural Damage from Cyclones with the Disaster Vegetation Damage Index: A Study in Coastal Purba Medinipur, West Bengal 用灾害植被破坏指数评估气旋对农业的破坏：西孟加拉邦沿海普尔巴梅迪尼普尔的研究

IF 4.1 4区地球科学

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.02.009

Rumpa Jana , N.C. Jana

{"title":"Assessing Agricultural Damage from Cyclones with the Disaster Vegetation Damage Index: A Study in Coastal Purba Medinipur, West Bengal","authors":"Rumpa Jana , N.C. Jana","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.02.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.02.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The North Indian Ocean (NIO) accounts for nearly 8 percent of all tropical cyclones that occur worldwide, and approximately 75 percent of the genesis of NIO tropical cyclones originates in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) basin. Cyclones form in the BoB during the pre-monsoon (April–May) and post-monsoon (October–November) seasons. Moreover, cyclone intensity is increasing during the pre-monsoon phase. This study focuses on Cyclones Fani, Amphan, and Yaas as the three most recent pre-monsoon cyclones, which recorded maximum sustained wind (MSW) speeds of 150, 145, and 65 knots, respectively. Cyclone Amphan resulted in widespread flooding in the coastal Blocks of Purba Medinipur, impacting 56 sq km of agricultural land in Khejuri-I, 42 sq km in Nandigram-II, and 42 sq km in Khejuri-II blocks collectively. However, the link between flooded land and crop loss does not yield a precise estimate of the potential impact, thus necessitating the use of Disaster Vegetation Damage Index (DVDI), which estimates the extent of crop and vegetation damage caused by disaster events such as cyclones and cyclone-induced floods. A DVDI score of below (−0.4) signifies very severe damage. Cyclone Fani inflicted substantial damage to 0.7 % (10 sq. km), Cyclone Amphan inflicted damage to 40 % (542 sq. km) of the total cropland area, and Cyclone Yaas affected 5.77 % (78 sq. km) of the area severely. There is less chance of crop damage if farmers adjust their crop calendar by quickly harvesting, threshing, and drying the grains before the occurrence of a cyclone. Moreover, cultivating rice along with vegetables and using flood-resistant rice seed varieties such as Patni, Mali-4, and Jamin can enhance resilience against cyclone-induced flooding and minimize crop loss.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"15 1","pages":"Pages 161-175"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147584706","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Advances in Tropical Cyclone Monitoring and Forecasting in Hong Kong using Ensemble Predictions and Artificial Intelligence 利用集合预报和人工智能在香港监测和预报热带气旋的进展

IF 4.1 4区地球科学

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.01.002

Kai-hou Yip, Yuk-sing Lui, Wai-soen Chan, Yu-ting Kwok, Wang Chow, Sung-ho Lee, Yu-heng He, Pak-wai Chan

{"title":"Advances in Tropical Cyclone Monitoring and Forecasting in Hong Kong using Ensemble Predictions and Artificial Intelligence","authors":"Kai-hou Yip, Yuk-sing Lui, Wai-soen Chan, Yu-ting Kwok, Wang Chow, Sung-ho Lee, Yu-heng He, Pak-wai Chan","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.01.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.01.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) is the meteorological authority in Hong Kong, responsible for weather monitoring, forecasting, and issuing warnings on weather-related hazards. Over the years, the HKO has been employing cutting-edge technologies to enhance tropical cyclone (TC) prediction accuracy and timeliness, support decision-making and improve local warning services. These efforts align with the United Nations’ “Early Warnings for All” initiative promoted by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). In this paper, five recent developments in the HKO by utilizing ensemble prediction systems (EPS) and artificial intelligence (AI) to support TC monitoring and forecasting are concisely presented. These notable advancements include (i) TC strike probability maps generated from multiple EPS, (ii) probabilistic storm surge forecast products to strengthen coastal flood risk assessment, (iii) an AI-based system for real-time position analysis and intensity estimation based on satellite imagery, (iv) a real-time flood monitoring tool leveraging camera imagery and AI algorithms, as well as (v) the use of AI weather prediction models to support TC forecasting operations. Looking into the future, the HKO will continue to improve forecast accuracy, enhance warning effectiveness, and collaborate with ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Members to mitigate the TC impacts in Hong Kong and the broader region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"15 1","pages":"Pages 10-22"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147584713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Tropical Cyclone Activities in the Western North Pacific in 2024 2024年西北太平洋热带气旋活动

IF 4.1 4区地球科学

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.01.004

Xin Huang , Johnny C.L. Chan , Lina Bai , Zifeng Yu , Tingting Sun

{"title":"Tropical Cyclone Activities in the Western North Pacific in 2024","authors":"Xin Huang , Johnny C.L. Chan , Lina Bai , Zifeng Yu , Tingting Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.01.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.01.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using the best-track dataset from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute/China Meteorological Administration, this paper reports on the tropical cyclone (TC) activities in the Western North Pacific (WNP) and the South China Sea (SCS) during 2024. Key features, including anomalies in TC frequency, origin locations, tracks, intensity, duration, and landfalls across the Asia-Pacific region, are examined relative to the 1951–2020 climatology. After four consecutive years of below-average activity, the 2024 TC frequency returns to near-normal levels, though with a notable temporal asymmetry—reduced TCs in the early months and enhanced activity during autumn. TC origin locations, marking the starting points of their paths, shift northwestward. Track density is anomalously high in offshore areas of southeastern China, the northern Philippines, and the waters east of Japan. While mean intensity is slightly below average, a bimodal distribution is observed. The average duration of named TCs is comparable to climatology, but with a wider range. Eight TCs made landfall in China, totaling nine events. In the Asia-Pacific, the Philippines experienced not only the highest number of TC landfalls, but also some of the most intense events. The pronounced seasonal asymmetry in TC activity during 2024 is mainly driven by ENSO-related conditions. While a decaying El Niño suppressed TC activity during the first half of the year, favorable conditions emerge in August and then intensified into the autumn with the onset of a La Niña event.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"15 1","pages":"Pages 29-42"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147584462","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0