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Assessing the impact of climate change on land-falling tropical cyclones (LFTCs) over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and their effects on coastal agriculture in Maharashtra: A case study 评估气候变化对北印度洋登陆热带气旋(LFTCs)的影响及其对马哈拉施特拉邦沿海农业的影响:一个案例研究
IF 2.4 4区 地球科学
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2025-04-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.04.003
Shahenaz Mulla , Sudhir Kumar Singh , Rizwan Ahmed
{"title":"Assessing the impact of climate change on land-falling tropical cyclones (LFTCs) over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and their effects on coastal agriculture in Maharashtra: A case study","authors":"Shahenaz Mulla ,&nbsp;Sudhir Kumar Singh ,&nbsp;Rizwan Ahmed","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.04.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.04.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The intensity of tropical cyclonic storms formed over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) has increased over the last two decades. The increasing severity of cyclonic storms has serious socioeconomic and agricultural consequences. Many people are concerned about the impact of global warming caused by climate change on extreme weather events, such as the frequency and intensity of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) that form over global ocean basins. High-intensity cyclones have become more common in the NIO, posing significant risks and vulnerability to coastal communities.</div><div>The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported that the warmest year was 2015–21, and the warmest decade was 2011–2020, which could be attributed to increased levels of greenhouse gases. However, few studies on the impact of climate change on various characteristics of Land-falling Tropical Cyclones (LFTCs) between 2001 and 2021 have been conducted. As a result, we performed an analysis to evaluate the impact of climate change on various characteristics of LFTCs, such as TC patterns, eye scenes, over land duration, Land-falling intensity (LFI) of LFTCs formed between the years 2000 and 2021. TCs formed over the NIO (2001–2021) crossed the coast with higher LFI and have shown a significant increasing trend in current intensity. Furthermore, more overland duration, eye-pattern TCs, and eye scenes were observed between 2000 and 2021.</div><div>This study also assessed the impact of Severe Cyclonic Storm (SCS) Nisarga on coastal agriculture of Maharashtra in terms of vegetation, and shoreline dynamics. The Nisarga’s landfall caused huge socioeconomic as well as agricultural damages including torrential rainfall, storm surges, and saltwater intrusion, causing biodiversity loss and prolonged soil degradation. Normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) indices revealed a sharp decline in vegetation health during post-cyclone with slow recovery in the subsequent months. The findings of this study could be used to improve the accuracy of operational forecasting of TCs over the North Indian Ocean basins. The results also highlight the need for targeted coastal management, including mangrove restoration and adaptive agricultural strategies, to enhance resilience against future LFTCs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"14 2","pages":"Pages 132-144"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144138231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessment of the impacts of Super Typhoon Saola and the record-breaking rainstorm due to the remnant of Severe Typhoon Haikui on Hong Kong in September 2023 2023年9月超强台风“索拉”及强台风“海葵”余波对香港的影响评估
IF 2.4 4区 地球科学
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2025-04-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.04.002
Yuk Sing Lui, The Hong Kong Federation of Insurers, Andy Wang-chun Lai, Chun-wing Choy, Tsz-cheung Lee
{"title":"Assessment of the impacts of Super Typhoon Saola and the record-breaking rainstorm due to the remnant of Severe Typhoon Haikui on Hong Kong in September 2023","authors":"Yuk Sing Lui,&nbsp;The Hong Kong Federation of Insurers,&nbsp;Andy Wang-chun Lai,&nbsp;Chun-wing Choy,&nbsp;Tsz-cheung Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.04.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.04.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In early September 2023, Hong Kong was severely impacted by the ferocious strike of Super Typhoon Saola on 1–2 September and the phenomenal rainstorm on 7–8 September triggered by the remnant of TC Haikui. Given the rarity of these two successive extreme weather events which wreaked havoc in Hong Kong within 10 days, impact assessment on the damage and economic loss in Hong Kong due to these two extreme events was conducted. Utilizing available data from government reports, media, surveys, and insurance claims, the direct economic losses incurred by Super Typhoon Saola on 1–2 September and the record-breaking rainstorm on 7–8 September were estimated to be around HK$0.48 billion and HK$1.74 billion respectively. Moreover, the impacts of Saola and the record-breaking rainstorm in September 2023 are compared with other super typhoons and Black Rainstorm events in Hong Kong mainly in the last decade for reference. It is noted that, when compared with the Super Typhoons Hato and Mangkhut which also necessitated the issuance of Hurricane Signal No. 10 in Hong Kong respectively in 2017 and 2018, the overall impact of Saola in 2023 was less than those of Hato and Mangkhut. In terms of rainstorm events, the impact of the Black Rainstorm event on 7–8 September 2023 was significantly higher than those of the Black Rainstorm events in March 2014 and June 2020. The possible attributing factors related to the differences in the impact of these super typhoon and rainstorm events were also briefly discussed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"14 2","pages":"Pages 158-169"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144138233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Tropical cyclone activities in the western North Pacific in 2023 2023年北太平洋西部热带气旋活动
IF 2.4 4区 地球科学
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2025-04-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.04.001
Xin Huang , Johnny C.L. Chan , Lina Bai , Zifeng Yu , Tingting Sun
{"title":"Tropical cyclone activities in the western North Pacific in 2023","authors":"Xin Huang ,&nbsp;Johnny C.L. Chan ,&nbsp;Lina Bai ,&nbsp;Zifeng Yu ,&nbsp;Tingting Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.04.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.04.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using the best-track dataset from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute/China Meteorological Administration, the paper presents a detailed summary and analysis of tropical cyclone (TC) activities in the Western North Pacific (WNP) and the South China Sea (SCS) during 2023. Based on historical records from 1951 to 2020 as the climatology benchmark, we examine anomalies in TC frequency, origin locations, tracks, intensity, and duration, as well as landfall events across the Asia-Pacific region. TC frequency in 2023 is found to be lower than climatology, with a marked decrease during the autumn months. Origin locations of TCs, which mark the starting points of their paths, are generally consistent with climatology, although there is a noticeable northwestward shift in the origins of the intense TCs. Track density of named TCs is anomalously high within the 0–20°N and 110°E to 125°E longitude box, and offshore areas covering northwestern to southern Japan and around the Korean Peninsula. Comparisons of the means, medians, upper and lower quartiles all indicate that TC intensity is generally stronger than usual, with 8 out of 17 named TCs reaching super typhoon status. The duration of TCs maintaining tropical storm intensity or above also surpasses climatological norms. In terms of landfall, 6 TCs made landfall in China, totaling 11 events, while 11 TCs accounted for 20 landfall instances across the Asia-Pacific. The key anomalous annual TC activities are influenced by atmospheric and oceanic conditions modulated by a concurrent El Niño event, a positive North Pacific Mode, a negative Pacific Meridional Mode on the interannual scale, and the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase and positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation phase on the interdecadal scale.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"14 2","pages":"Pages 145-157"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144138232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Can one reconcile the classical theories and the WISHE theories of tropical cyclone intensification? 关于热带气旋增强的经典理论和WISHE理论能调和吗?
IF 2.4 4区 地球科学
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.02.002
Roger K. Smith , Michael T. Montgomery , Shanghong Wang
{"title":"Can one reconcile the classical theories and the WISHE theories of tropical cyclone intensification?","authors":"Roger K. Smith ,&nbsp;Michael T. Montgomery ,&nbsp;Shanghong Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.02.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.02.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>An effort is made to reconcile the classical balance theories of tropical cyclone intensification by Shapiro and Willoughby and Schubert and Hack and the various prognostic (or WISHE-) theories of Emanuel. As a start, it proves insightful to extend the classical theories to account for explicit latent heat release in slantwise ascending air. While such an effort uncovers enroute a range of old modelling issues concerning the representation of deep convection in a balance framework, the analysis provides a new perspective on these issues. The bottom line is that the two theories cannot be reconciled.</div><div>The behaviour of the classical model with explicit latent heat release included is illustrated by a particular calculation starting with an axisymmetric vortex in a conditionally-unstable atmosphere. As soon as condensation occurs aloft, the moist Eliassen equation for the overturning circulation becomes hyperbolic in the convectively-unstable region and the model cannot be advanced forwards beyond this time unless the Eliassen equation is suitably regularized to remove these hyperbolic regions. However, regularization suppresses deep moist convection, leaving no mechanism to reverse the frictionally-induced outflow in the lower troposphere required to concentrate absolute angular momentum there. For this reason, the initial vortex spins down, even following the formation of elevated cloud with the accompanying latent heat release.</div><div>The fact that the flow configuration in the explicit moist version of the classical theories is similar to that in the WISHE theories raises several fundamental questions concerning the physics of vortex spin up in the WISHE theories, calling into question the utility of these theories for understanding tropical cyclone intensification in nature.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"14 2","pages":"Pages 105-118"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144138229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Rapid intensification of the Super Cyclone Amphan: Environmental drivers and its future projections 超级气旋安潘的快速强化:环境驱动因素及其未来预测
IF 2.4 4区 地球科学
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.02.005
R.S. Akhila, J. Kuttippurath, A. Chakraborty, N. Sunanda, R. Peter
{"title":"Rapid intensification of the Super Cyclone Amphan: Environmental drivers and its future projections","authors":"R.S. Akhila,&nbsp;J. Kuttippurath,&nbsp;A. Chakraborty,&nbsp;N. Sunanda,&nbsp;R. Peter","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.02.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.02.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tropical cyclones are intense weather systems that originate over warm tropical oceans and they alter the dynamical, chemical, and biological state of the oceans. Here, the reasons for the rapid intensification of Super cyclone Amphan that occurred in May 2020 in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are thoroughly investigated. One of the main causes for the intensification of Amphan into a super cyclone is the rise in sea surface temperature (SST). Additionally, the warm-core eddies present in the track of cyclones also contributed to its rapid intensification. The Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) and Upper Ocean Heat Content (OHC) were consistent and remained high throughout the cyclone period to maintain its high intensity. Although there were greater cyclone-induced cold wakes during the period, the background SST conditions were still higher and were favourable for the cyclone to intensify further. The vertical wind shear in both shallow and deep layers was minimal, which further helped the formation of a stable and strong cyclonic vortex, and thus contributed to its rapid intensification. The behaviour of cyclone Amphan in future scenarios is analysed using a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. Compared to the current scenario, the severity of cyclones is expected to increase in the future (RCP 8.5). Early landfall is observed in the case of RCP 4.5. As a result of elevated UOHC, Amphan attains more strength in the RCP 8.5 than it does in the present scenario. The translational speed increases in the future, which makes the cyclone move faster. Due to the passage of Amphan, there is a reduction in UOHC, which is higher in the case of a future warm climate. This suggests that additional energy from the ocean is transferred to the atmosphere, causing the cyclone to intensify further. According to the results from the coupled atmosphere-ocean model, the future warm atmospheric and oceanic conditions will be more favourable for the genesis and development of stronger cyclones.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"14 1","pages":"Pages 27-39"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143792177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Ensemble deep learning models for tropical cyclone intensity prediction using heterogeneous datasets 基于异构数据集的热带气旋强度预测集成深度学习模型
IF 2.4 4区 地球科学
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.02.001
Dikshant Gupta, Menaka Pushpa Arthur
{"title":"Ensemble deep learning models for tropical cyclone intensity prediction using heterogeneous datasets","authors":"Dikshant Gupta,&nbsp;Menaka Pushpa Arthur","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.02.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.02.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The prediction of the Tropical Cyclone (TC) intensity helps the government to take proper precautions and disseminate appropriate warnings to civilians. Intensity prediction for TC is a very challenging task due to its dynamically changing internal and external impact factors. We proposed a system to predict TC intensity using CNN-based ensemble deep-learning models that are trained by both satellite images and numerical data of the TC. This paper presents a thorough examination of several deep-learning models such as CNN, Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) and transfer learning models (AlexNet and VGG) to determine their effectiveness in forecasting TC intensity. Our focus is on four widely recognized models: AlexNet, VGG16, RNN and, a customized CNN-based ensemble model all of which were trained exclusively on image data, as well as an ensemble model that utilized both image and numerical datasets for training. Our analysis evaluates the performance of each model in terms of the loss incurred. The results provide a comparative assessment of the deep learning models selected and offer insights into their respective prediction loss in the form of Mean Square Error (MSE) as 194 in 100 epochs and execution time 1229 s to forecasting TC intensity. We also emphasize the potential benefits of incorporating both image and numerical data into an ensemble model, which can lead to improved prediction accuracy. This research provides valuable knowledge to the field of meteorology and disaster management, paving the way for more resilient and precise TC intensity forecasting models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"14 1","pages":"Pages 1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143792174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evaluation of operational extended range forecast of cyclogenesis over the north Indian Ocean 北印度洋气旋形成的业务扩展范围预报评价
IF 2.4 4区 地球科学
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.02.006
M. Sharma , M. Mohapatra , P. Suneetha
{"title":"Evaluation of operational extended range forecast of cyclogenesis over the north Indian Ocean","authors":"M. Sharma ,&nbsp;M. Mohapatra ,&nbsp;P. Suneetha","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.02.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.02.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The performance of the operational extended range forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department in the nil, low, moderate and high categories of probability of cyclogenesis has been evaluated based on 868 forecasts issued every Thursday for week 1 and week 2 for the Arabian Sea (AS), Bay of Bengal (BoB) and north Indian Ocean (NIO) as a whole during April 2018 to December 2023. The forecast is biased towards under-warning for low and moderate categories over the NIO, BoB &amp; AS and towards over-warning for high categories over NIO and BoB in week 1. It is biased towards over-warning for moderate &amp; high categories and under-warning for low category forecast over NIO and BoB for week 2. It is biased towards under-warning for low and high categories and over-warning for moderate category forecasts over AS in week 2. The Brier score (Brier skill score) for week 1 and week 2 are 0.051 (48.7 %) and 0.087 (8.6 %) over NIO respectively.</div><div>The association of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), equatorial Rossby waves (ERW) and Kelvin waves (KW) with genesis increases and that of low-frequency background waves (LW) and inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) decreases with an increase in the intensity of storms from depression to very severe cyclonic storms (VSCS). About 100 %, 92 %, 92 %, 92 % and 100 % of the cases of the genesis of VSCS &amp; above category storms over the NIO are associated with stronger westerlies to the south, stronger easterlies to the north, convective phase of MJO, ERW and KW over the region of genesis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"14 1","pages":"Pages 82-103"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143792180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impact of twin typhoons on the upper ocean environment across the Northwest Pacific ocean 双台风对西北太平洋上层海洋环境的影响
IF 2.4 4区 地球科学
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.02.008
M.V. Subrahmanyam
{"title":"Impact of twin typhoons on the upper ocean environment across the Northwest Pacific ocean","authors":"M.V. Subrahmanyam","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.02.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.02.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Two typhoons, Saola and Damrey, moved across the Northwest Pacific Ocean (NPO) between July 27, 2012, and August 4, 2012. During this period, the oceanographic response was studied. The study examined variations in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Mix Layer Depth (MLD) in response to twin typhoons using satellite data from QuickSCAT wind, reanalysis data from OISST, and Argo data. On August 1, 2012, typhoon Damrey's right side experienced the greatest SST dip of 3.6 °C because of mixing. Typhoon Damrey had an influence on typhoon Saola, which caused a weaker SST cooling of 2.5 °C. During the passage of the twin typhoons, the area around typhoon Saola observed the most noticeable change in MLD, which went from 15 m to 85 m. The Ekman pumping effect led to modifications in the subsurface layer, which improved SST cooling and caused MLD deepening.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"14 1","pages":"Pages 71-81"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143792179","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Comparative analysis of kinetic energy budget of Typhoons Yagi and Rumbia 台风八木和台风伦比亚的动能收支对比分析
IF 2.4 4区 地球科学
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.02.004
Guanbo Zhou , Longsheng Liu , Bin Huang
{"title":"Comparative analysis of kinetic energy budget of Typhoons Yagi and Rumbia","authors":"Guanbo Zhou ,&nbsp;Longsheng Liu ,&nbsp;Bin Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.02.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.02.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, the ERA-Interim reanalysis data at six-hourly intervals (with a horizontal resolution of 0.25° × 0.25°) and typhoon best track datasets are used to conduct a comparative kinetic energy budget analysis of Typhoon Yagi and Rumbia during their lifecycles in 2018. At the same time, the contributions of divergent wind and rotating wind to the kinetic energy budget in different quadrants are analyzed, and the relative importance of the components of rotating wind energy and divergent wind energy represented by Kr and Kd in the kinetic energy budget is studied. Different from the previous kinetic energy budget analysis of the whole target area, this paper studies Kr and Kd in the four quadrants around the typhoon center to reveal their respective contributions to the development of the typhoon. The results show that: (1) On the whole, the rotational wind energy Kr is the largest, and the distribution is relatively consistent with the total kinetic energy K0. (2) The variation trend of divergent wind energy Kd in the lower layer can better reflect the intensity change of TCs. (3) From the comparative analysis of the deviation term vr∗vd, \"Rumbia\" weakens to the lowest in the northwest, while the corresponding northeast direction is the maximum at this time, which corresponds to the beginning of the Northeast turning of \"Rumbia\". (4) Through further analysis and comparison, it is found that T1 and T3 are mainly positive in the low layer, and their contributions mainly come from T1d and T3d.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"14 1","pages":"Pages 13-26"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143792175","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The mean and extreme tropical cyclone wave climate throughout the Coral Sea, from 1979 to 2020 1979 - 2020年整个珊瑚海的平均和极端热带气旋波气候
IF 2.4 4区 地球科学
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.03.001
John G. Miller, Guilherme Vieira da Silva, Darrell Strauss
{"title":"The mean and extreme tropical cyclone wave climate throughout the Coral Sea, from 1979 to 2020","authors":"John G. Miller,&nbsp;Guilherme Vieira da Silva,&nbsp;Darrell Strauss","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.03.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.03.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Here we present a mean and extreme tropical cyclone (TC)-generated wave climate for the Coral Sea (the oceanic basin east of Australia), for 1979–2020. An available WAVEWATCH III® hindcast model dataset with surface wind forcing from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction supplied Climate Forecasts System Version 2 was used. The resolution of this wind field is 0.3°, increasing to 0.2° from 2011, among the highest available to better represent TC vortices. The spatial and temporal resolution of the wave model was sufficient to produce TC wave climates, although a limitation in representing TCs at both ends of the intensity scale was apparent. Model performance was validated using wave buoy data at three coastal locations. The area near the Tropic of Capricorn, around 155° E, experienced the largest TC-generated mean waves with the locations of the primary swell height maxima shifted slightly north-west, in comparison with combined waves. There was an interdecadal increase (decrease) in TC significant wave height with positive (negative) IPO phase in three of the four decades. TC extreme wave maxima were situated further east, compared to the TC generated mean waves. The 50 and 100-year average return intervals indicated high extreme waves near the northeastern tip of Australia and northwest of New Caledonia. For the east Australian coast, extreme waves from TCs showed a decreasing trend in the south only. This study presents a unique mapping of TC wave characteristics over the entire Coral Sea and validates the use of a globally applicable method, for such applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"14 1","pages":"Pages 40-59"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143792176","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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