Analysis of characteristics and evaluation of forecast accuracy for Super Typhoon Doksuri (2023)

IF 2.4 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Rong Guo , Runling Yu , Mengqi Yang , Guomin Chen , Chen Chen , Peiyan Chen , Xin Huang , Xiping Zhang
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Abstract

Super Typhoon Doksuri is a significant meteorological challenge for China this year due to its strong intensity and wide influence range, as well as significant and prolonged hazards. In this work, we studied Doksuri's main characteristics and assessed its forecast accuracy meticulously based on official forecasts, global models and regional models with lead times varying from 1 to 5 days. The results indicate that Typhoon Doksuri underwent rapid intensification and made landfall at 09:55 BJT on July 28 with a powerful intensity of 50 m s−1 confirmed by the real-time operational warnings issued by China Meteorological Administration (CMA). The typhoon also caused significant wind and rainfall impacts, with precipitation at several stations reaching historical extremes, ranking eighth in terms of total rainfall impact during the event. The evaluation of forecast accuracy for Doksuri suggests that Shanghai Multi-model Ensemble Method (SSTC) and Fengwu Model are the most effective for short-term track forecasts. Meanwhile, the forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) are optimal for long-term predictions. It is worth noting that objective forecasts systematically underestimate the typhoon maximum intensity. The objective forecast is terribly poor when there is a sudden change in intensity. CMA-National Digital Forecast System (CMA-NDFS) provides a better reference value for typhoon accumulated rainfall forecasts, and regional models perform well in forecasting extreme rainfall. The analyses above assist forecasters in pinpointing challenges within typhoon predictions and gaining a comprehensive insight into the performance of each model. This improves the effective application of model products.
超强台风 "杜苏芮"(2023 年)的特征分析和预报精度评估
超强台风 "杜苏芮 "强度强、影响范围广、危害大、持续时间长,是今年中国面临的重大气象挑战。在这项工作中,我们研究了 "杜苏芮 "的主要特征,并根据官方预报、全球模式和区域模式对其预报准确性进行了细致评估。结果表明,台风 "杜苏芮 "迅速加强,于北京时间 7 月 28 日 09 时 55 分登陆,登陆时强度为 50 米/秒-1,中国气象局发布的实时业务预警也证实了这一点。台风还造成了明显的风雨影响,多个站点的降水量达到历史极值,在台风期间的总降水量影响中排名第八。对 "杜苏芮 "预报准确率的评估表明,上海多模式联合预报法(SSTC)和凤舞模式对短期路径预报最为有效。而欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)和英国气象局(UKMO)的预报则是长期预报的最佳选择。值得注意的是,客观预报系统性地低估了台风的最大强度。当台风强度发生突然变化时,客观预报会非常糟糕。中国气象局-国家数字预报系统(CMA-NDFS)为台风累积降雨量预报提供了较好的参考值,区域模式在极端降雨量预报方面表现良好。上述分析有助于预报员准确定位台风预报中的挑战,并全面了解各模式的性能。从而提高模式产品的有效应用。
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来源期刊
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
4.60
自引率
3.40%
发文量
184
审稿时长
30 weeks
期刊介绍: Tropical Cyclone Research and Review is an international journal focusing on tropical cyclone monitoring, forecasting, and research as well as associated hydrological effects and disaster risk reduction. This journal is edited and published by the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee (TC) and the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorology Administration (STI/CMA). Contributions from all tropical cyclone basins are welcome. Scope of the journal includes: • Reviews of tropical cyclones exhibiting unusual characteristics or behavior or resulting in disastrous impacts on Typhoon Committee Members and other regional WMO bodies • Advances in applied and basic tropical cyclone research or technology to improve tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings • Basic theoretical studies of tropical cyclones • Event reports, compelling images, and topic review reports of tropical cyclones • Impacts, risk assessments, and risk management techniques related to tropical cyclones
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