Case study of high waves in the South Pacific generated by Tropical Cyclone Harold in 2020

IF 2.4 4区地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI:10.1016/j.tcrr.2024.08.003

Amit Singh , Nadao Kohno , Hironori Fudeyasu

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Abstract

This study highlighted a high wave case by severe tropical cyclone Harold and conducted a simulation with a newly developed wave forecasting system for the South Pacific based on the Japan Meteorological Agency third generation wave model (JMA MRI-III) using the National Center for Environment Prediction Global Forecast System (GFS) winds. Harold was a very intense tropical cyclone (TC) and very high waves up to 10 m affected parts of Vanuatu and Fiji. The model results were reasonable and verified against observations of orbital satellites and a wave buoy at Komave in Fiji. The statistical verifications were carefully analysed. The Root Mean Squared Error (RSME), Scatter Index (SI), Bias and R² are all showing very impressive results. The new wave forecasting system is the first high resolution operational model at Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS), which covers the whole Fiji area. The system will provide guidance to FMS in preparing marine alerts and warning better and more confidence in providing the marine forecast accurately.

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2020 年热带气旋哈罗德在南太平洋掀起巨浪的案例研究

本研究强调了强热带气旋哈罗德造成的巨浪情况，并使用新开发的南太平洋海浪预报系统进行了模拟，该系统基于日本气象厅第三代海浪模型（JMA MRI-III），并使用了国家环境预报中心的全球预报系统（GFS）风向。哈罗德 "是一个非常强烈的热带气旋（TC），瓦努阿图和斐济部分地区受到高达 10 米的巨浪影响。模型结果是合理的，并与轨道卫星和斐济 Komave 波浪浮标的观测结果进行了验证。对统计验证结果进行了仔细分析。均方根误差 (RSME)、散布指数 (SI)、偏差和 R2 都显示出非常可观的结果。新的海浪预报系统是斐济气象局（FMS）的第一个高分辨率业务模型，覆盖整个斐济地区。该系统将为斐济气象局更好地准备海洋警报和警告提供指导，并使其更有信心提供准确的海洋预报。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-

CiteScore

4.60

自引率

3.40%

发文量

184

审稿时长

30 weeks

期刊介绍： Tropical Cyclone Research and Review is an international journal focusing on tropical cyclone monitoring, forecasting, and research as well as associated hydrological effects and disaster risk reduction. This journal is edited and published by the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee (TC) and the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorology Administration (STI/CMA). Contributions from all tropical cyclone basins are welcome. Scope of the journal includes: • Reviews of tropical cyclones exhibiting unusual characteristics or behavior or resulting in disastrous impacts on Typhoon Committee Members and other regional WMO bodies • Advances in applied and basic tropical cyclone research or technology to improve tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings • Basic theoretical studies of tropical cyclones • Event reports, compelling images, and topic review reports of tropical cyclones • Impacts, risk assessments, and risk management techniques related to tropical cyclones