Tropical Cyclone Research and Review最新文献_第4页

Assessing Agricultural Damage from Cyclones with the Disaster Vegetation Damage Index: A Study in Coastal Purba Medinipur, West Bengal 用灾害植被破坏指数评估气旋对农业的破坏：西孟加拉邦沿海普尔巴梅迪尼普尔的研究

IF 4.1 4区地球科学

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.02.009

Rumpa Jana , N.C. Jana

{"title":"Assessing Agricultural Damage from Cyclones with the Disaster Vegetation Damage Index: A Study in Coastal Purba Medinipur, West Bengal","authors":"Rumpa Jana , N.C. Jana","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.02.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.02.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The North Indian Ocean (NIO) accounts for nearly 8 percent of all tropical cyclones that occur worldwide, and approximately 75 percent of the genesis of NIO tropical cyclones originates in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) basin. Cyclones form in the BoB during the pre-monsoon (April–May) and post-monsoon (October–November) seasons. Moreover, cyclone intensity is increasing during the pre-monsoon phase. This study focuses on Cyclones Fani, Amphan, and Yaas as the three most recent pre-monsoon cyclones, which recorded maximum sustained wind (MSW) speeds of 150, 145, and 65 knots, respectively. Cyclone Amphan resulted in widespread flooding in the coastal Blocks of Purba Medinipur, impacting 56 sq km of agricultural land in Khejuri-I, 42 sq km in Nandigram-II, and 42 sq km in Khejuri-II blocks collectively. However, the link between flooded land and crop loss does not yield a precise estimate of the potential impact, thus necessitating the use of Disaster Vegetation Damage Index (DVDI), which estimates the extent of crop and vegetation damage caused by disaster events such as cyclones and cyclone-induced floods. A DVDI score of below (−0.4) signifies very severe damage. Cyclone Fani inflicted substantial damage to 0.7 % (10 sq. km), Cyclone Amphan inflicted damage to 40 % (542 sq. km) of the total cropland area, and Cyclone Yaas affected 5.77 % (78 sq. km) of the area severely. There is less chance of crop damage if farmers adjust their crop calendar by quickly harvesting, threshing, and drying the grains before the occurrence of a cyclone. Moreover, cultivating rice along with vegetables and using flood-resistant rice seed varieties such as Patni, Mali-4, and Jamin can enhance resilience against cyclone-induced flooding and minimize crop loss.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"15 1","pages":"Pages 161-175"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147584706","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Advances in Tropical Cyclone Monitoring and Forecasting in Hong Kong using Ensemble Predictions and Artificial Intelligence 利用集合预报和人工智能在香港监测和预报热带气旋的进展

IF 4.1 4区地球科学

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.01.002

Kai-hou Yip, Yuk-sing Lui, Wai-soen Chan, Yu-ting Kwok, Wang Chow, Sung-ho Lee, Yu-heng He, Pak-wai Chan

{"title":"Advances in Tropical Cyclone Monitoring and Forecasting in Hong Kong using Ensemble Predictions and Artificial Intelligence","authors":"Kai-hou Yip, Yuk-sing Lui, Wai-soen Chan, Yu-ting Kwok, Wang Chow, Sung-ho Lee, Yu-heng He, Pak-wai Chan","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.01.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.01.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) is the meteorological authority in Hong Kong, responsible for weather monitoring, forecasting, and issuing warnings on weather-related hazards. Over the years, the HKO has been employing cutting-edge technologies to enhance tropical cyclone (TC) prediction accuracy and timeliness, support decision-making and improve local warning services. These efforts align with the United Nations’ “Early Warnings for All” initiative promoted by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). In this paper, five recent developments in the HKO by utilizing ensemble prediction systems (EPS) and artificial intelligence (AI) to support TC monitoring and forecasting are concisely presented. These notable advancements include (i) TC strike probability maps generated from multiple EPS, (ii) probabilistic storm surge forecast products to strengthen coastal flood risk assessment, (iii) an AI-based system for real-time position analysis and intensity estimation based on satellite imagery, (iv) a real-time flood monitoring tool leveraging camera imagery and AI algorithms, as well as (v) the use of AI weather prediction models to support TC forecasting operations. Looking into the future, the HKO will continue to improve forecast accuracy, enhance warning effectiveness, and collaborate with ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Members to mitigate the TC impacts in Hong Kong and the broader region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"15 1","pages":"Pages 10-22"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147584713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Tropical Cyclone Activities in the Western North Pacific in 2024 2024年西北太平洋热带气旋活动

IF 4.1 4区地球科学

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.01.004

Xin Huang , Johnny C.L. Chan , Lina Bai , Zifeng Yu , Tingting Sun

{"title":"Tropical Cyclone Activities in the Western North Pacific in 2024","authors":"Xin Huang , Johnny C.L. Chan , Lina Bai , Zifeng Yu , Tingting Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.01.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.01.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using the best-track dataset from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute/China Meteorological Administration, this paper reports on the tropical cyclone (TC) activities in the Western North Pacific (WNP) and the South China Sea (SCS) during 2024. Key features, including anomalies in TC frequency, origin locations, tracks, intensity, duration, and landfalls across the Asia-Pacific region, are examined relative to the 1951–2020 climatology. After four consecutive years of below-average activity, the 2024 TC frequency returns to near-normal levels, though with a notable temporal asymmetry—reduced TCs in the early months and enhanced activity during autumn. TC origin locations, marking the starting points of their paths, shift northwestward. Track density is anomalously high in offshore areas of southeastern China, the northern Philippines, and the waters east of Japan. While mean intensity is slightly below average, a bimodal distribution is observed. The average duration of named TCs is comparable to climatology, but with a wider range. Eight TCs made landfall in China, totaling nine events. In the Asia-Pacific, the Philippines experienced not only the highest number of TC landfalls, but also some of the most intense events. The pronounced seasonal asymmetry in TC activity during 2024 is mainly driven by ENSO-related conditions. While a decaying El Niño suppressed TC activity during the first half of the year, favorable conditions emerge in August and then intensified into the autumn with the onset of a La Niña event.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"15 1","pages":"Pages 29-42"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147584462","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Severe Typhoon Bebinca (2024) with a Record-breaking Intensity Making Landfall in Shanghai 强度破纪录的强台风“贝碧卡”在上海登陆

IF 4.1 4区地球科学

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.02.002

Lina Bai , Guomin Chen , Rijin Wan , Ziyao Sun , Shuai Zhang , Rong Guo , Mengqi Yang

引用次数: 0

Track Forecast Error Analysis for Landfall of Chanthu under Effects of a Northeast Cold Vortex in 2021 2021年东北冷涡影响下灿都登陆轨迹预报误差分析

IF 4.1 4区地球科学

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.02.006

Lichun Tang , Zifeng Yu , Qian Wang , Shangfeng Li

{"title":"Track Forecast Error Analysis for Landfall of Chanthu under Effects of a Northeast Cold Vortex in 2021","authors":"Lichun Tang , Zifeng Yu , Qian Wang , Shangfeng Li","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.02.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.02.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Typhoon Chanthu was an intense tropical cyclone during the 2021 western North Pacific typhoon season, undergoing rapid intensification from a tropical storm to a super typhoon within 24 h. After skirting Taiwan, China, and turning northward, a significant track forecast error was observed after Typhoon Chanthu passed near the eastern coast of Taiwan, China, without making landfall and turned northward. Most official forecasts and ensemble members predicted that Chanthu would make landfall in Shanghai. However, the typhoon remained offshore, lingered near Shanghai for several days before recurving northeastward toward Japan. Subsequent analyses reveal that a mid-level Northeast cold vortex merged with a trough near 150°E, which led to the intensification and southward extent of the trough. This synoptic feature remained quasi-stationary for several days, contributing to the forecast inaccuracy. Forecast models that failed to capture this interaction struggled to produce an accurate track forecast. Additionally, the subtropical high (SH) to the south of Chanthu played a critical role in steering its movement. Beyond environmental steering, the initial intensity and structure of the storm within the forecast models also had a significant influence on its subsequent evolution and interaction with surrounding environmental flow.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"15 1","pages":"Pages 121-132"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147584709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Application of Thermal Dynamic and Precipitation Parameters from FengYun Satellites in Tropical Cyclone Monitoring and Warning 风云卫星热力和降水参数在热带气旋监测预警中的应用

IF 4.1 4区地球科学

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.02.007

Suling Ren , Dongyan Mao , Di Xian , Xiang Fang , Bingyun Yang , Zhiqiang Cao , Yawen Ai , Chang Liu , Chunyi Xiang , Qifeng Qian , Xinyan Lü , Jian Shang

{"title":"Application of Thermal Dynamic and Precipitation Parameters from FengYun Satellites in Tropical Cyclone Monitoring and Warning","authors":"Suling Ren , Dongyan Mao , Di Xian , Xiang Fang , Bingyun Yang , Zhiqiang Cao , Yawen Ai , Chang Liu , Chunyi Xiang , Qifeng Qian , Xinyan Lü , Jian Shang","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.02.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2026.02.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>After more than 50 years of development, FengYun (FY) meteorological satellite has formed a polar orbit and geostationary orbit (GEO) meteorological satellite observation system, with the ability to operate four low earth orbit (LEO) meteorological satellites simultaneously, including early morning, morning, afternoon, and inclined orbits. GEO meteorological satellites have also formed a multiple satellite network for observation. The collaborative observation of FY LEO and GEO satellites provide high spatiotemporal resolution, hyperspectral resolution, active and passive observation, and multiple meteorological parameters for tropical cyclone (TC) monitoring and warning. This article will focus on the current development status of FY meteorological satellites, and introduce the application capabilities of the thermal, dynamic, and precipitation related parameters retrieved by FY satellites currently in orbit in TC monitoring and warning. The major contents include four parts: TC targeted observation, TC thermal atmospheric environment field and structure monitoring, TC dynamic atmospheric environment field monitoring, and TC clouds and precipitation monitoring.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"15 1","pages":"Pages 133-147"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147584710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Research progress on the influence of water vapor on tropical cyclone intensity 水汽对热带气旋强度影响的研究进展

IF 4.1 4区地球科学

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.07.004

Yubin Yu , Dajun Zhao , Huan Tang , Yuhao Zheng

引用次数: 0

Application of stream function in tracking a quasi-closed circulation and its characteristics in developing and non-developing tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean 流函数在北印度洋发展中和非发展中热带气旋准闭合环流跟踪中的应用及其特征

IF 4.1 4区地球科学

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.07.002

R. Emmanuel , Medha Deshpande , Anandh T.S. , Ralf Toumi , Ganadhi Mano Kranthi , S.T. Ingle

{"title":"Application of stream function in tracking a quasi-closed circulation and its characteristics in developing and non-developing tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean","authors":"R. Emmanuel , Medha Deshpande , Anandh T.S. , Ralf Toumi , Ganadhi Mano Kranthi , S.T. Ingle","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.07.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.07.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A precise understanding and prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis remains one of the fundamental objectives for the meteorological community. Monitoring would be much easier if we could anticipate in advance the regions where a TC would form. In this study, we considered 8 cases each of developing and non-developing TCs over the North Indian Ocean (NIO). We found that the stream function averaging over a layer (850-500 hPa) can effectively identify the quasi closed circulation (QCC) before the low-pressure area (LPA) formation. Based on this, we designed an algorithm to track the QCC. The day after an LPA the negative stream-function value at the center of QCC gradually increases in all developing cases. Whereas, in non-developing cases, the negative stream function values are comparatively smaller and remain steady. The total precipitable water within the QCC for developing cases gradually increased on the day of the LPA and persisted until the day of depression. A strong QCC can trap and enhance the availability of moisture through vertical moisture flux transport from the surface in developing lows. However, in non-developing lows, a feeble QCC can only trap moisture at the initial stage but fails to sufficiently moisten the mid-levels. We applied machine learning to identify the threshold values for the stream function and total precipitable water to find the potential of the QCC to become a depression. We tested an algorithm for pre and post monsoon seasons during 2020–2022. The algorithm successfully detected many vortices 5–7 days before the formation of a depression, and it identified depressions 3–4 days in advance. As the thresholds are obtained by machine learning method from the training data, this algorithm could be applied to other basins. This advances our knowledge of the TC origin and aids in its early monitoring.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"14 3","pages":"Pages 185-202"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145247922","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Parameterization of boundary layer height based on helicity and its application in tropical cyclone numerical simulation 基于螺旋度的边界层高度参数化及其在热带气旋数值模拟中的应用

IF 4.1 4区地球科学

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.07.003

Jin Zhang , Jie Tang

{"title":"Parameterization of boundary layer height based on helicity and its application in tropical cyclone numerical simulation","authors":"Jin Zhang , Jie Tang","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.07.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.07.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study introduces a helicity-based parameterization method for determining the planetary boundary layer (PBL) height to better capture the complex dynamics of the tropical cyclone (TC) boundary layer (TCBL). By integrating this method into the Yonsei University (YSU) PBL scheme of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Mesoscale Model (CMA-MESO), the PBL height is dynamically determined using helicity as a proxy for frictional forcing in TCBL regions, while retaining the traditional bulk Richardson number (Rib) method in areas with weak or ambiguous helicity signals. Simulations of 28 Northwest Pacific TCs in 2022 demonstrate that this approach has negligible impact on track forecasts but substantially reduces the systematic underestimation of TC intensity compared to the traditional Rib-based method. The improvements in TC intensity predictions primarily originate from helicity-modulated PBL height adjustments, particularly the distinct elevation of PBL height within the eyewall region. Analysis of PBL tendencies indicates that elevated PBL height enhances low-level stratification instability through deepened heating within the PBL and expanded cooling at the PBL top. Meanwhile, the deepened frictional layer augments low-level convergence through strengthened agradient forcing induced by momentum dissipation. These thermodynamic and dynamic modifications foster convective concentration in the eyewall, where intensified diabatic heating interacts with high inertial stability to elevate heating efficiency, thus driving TC intensification. These findings highlight that the helicity-based parameterization method outperforms the Rib-based method by better determining the eyewall PBL height, whose deeper structure enhances low-level convergence and unstable stratification, providing a practical pathway to improve TC intensity prediction in numerical models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"14 3","pages":"Pages 203-218"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145247923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Analysis of tropical cyclone eye over the North Indian Ocean during 2013–2023 2013-2023年北印度洋热带气旋风眼分析

IF 4.1 4区地球科学

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.08.003

Sunil Kumar , Shashi Kant , Amrit Kumar

{"title":"Analysis of tropical cyclone eye over the North Indian Ocean during 2013–2023","authors":"Sunil Kumar , Shashi Kant , Amrit Kumar","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.08.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2025.08.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the tropical cyclone (TC) eyes over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) from 2013 to 2023. TCs feature a warm and cloud-free region called the eye. In recent years, meteorologists have taken a keen interest in geometric and thermodynamic characteristics of TC’s eye as these attributes are useful for operational forecasting of TCs. In this study, we analyzed data from the INSAT-3D/R satellite, passive microwave imagery, and thermodynamic parameters over an 11-year period (2013–2023).</div><div>Analysis showed that 37.73 % of the TCs developed an eye over the NIO, with 60 % of these occurring in the Arabian Sea (AS) and 40 % in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). The eye was observed most frequently approximately 36 h (1.5 days) after the storm's onset (>34 knots). The mean maximum sustained wind speed at which an eye formed was 66 knots, with a standard deviation of 14.26 over the NIO. The average estimated central pressure of the eye was 982.15 hPa. TCs' eyes formed at an average latitude of 13.60°N and longitude of 83.67°E in the BoB, with standard deviations of 2.33° and 5.93°, respectively. The average radius of a TC's eye was 22.3 km (with a diameter of 44.6 km) over the NIO. The calculated Eye Roundness Value (ERV) was 0.59, with a range from 0.5 to 0.8. The average intensity of TC's eyes over the NIO was classified as Dvorak’s T4.0 (64–89 knots). The dominant pattern observed before the formation of the TC's eye was the Curved Band Pattern. Our results indicated that as one moves poleward, both the size and number of eyes increase.</div><div>The findings of this study are valuable for operational forecasters and disaster managers in mitigating socioeconomic impacts and preserving human lives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"14 3","pages":"Pages 287-296"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145247929","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0