World Economy and International Relations最新文献

{"title":"Protest Potential of the Latin America: Regional Aspect of Global Phenomenon","authors":"P. Yakovlev, B. Ordynka Str. Moscow Russian Federation, N. Yakovleva","doi":"10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-7-89-99","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-7-89-99","url":null,"abstract":"The world is showing signs of geopolitical and geo-economical imbalance, which threatens the international community with new crisis shocks. This is indicated by a slowdown in the growth of the world economy and trade, neo-protectionism and increasing sanction measures, financial “hand-wringing” of “undesirable” regimes, the incessant military actions in Syria, the “frozen”, but with that not less the destructive conflict in Ukraine, and many other dangerous phenomena of international life. More recently, they have been joined by another “black swan” – the unexpected event that could critically complicate the economic and political environment, both in individual countries and globally. This is certainly the spread of coronavirus (COVID‑19), the various negative effects of which have yet to be fully assessed. But one thing is already clear: coronavirus will have a negative impact on the world economy, “push” its reversal to the next global crisis and, as a result, the deterioration of the social situation. Similarly, the powerful wave of mass sociopolitical protests that swept the world (including a number of Latin American states) requires its comprehensive analysis and reflection. In this case, it is necessary to consider this phenomenon in two dimensions: a) the main causes and country features of protests; b) the conditioning of protests by the megatrends of global development, their connection with the fundamental processes that are changing the world order, formed in the age of neoliberal globalization. This dual task is even more relevant, because, according to experts of the consulting company Eurasia Group, in 2020, new protests, particularly in Latin America, can become one of the main global risks. The facts show that the main reason for the protests in the region has been a growing public discontent with the deepening income gap between the ruling class and the vast majority of the population, rampant corruption, the inability of authorities to resolve accumulated socio-economic problems for the greater public good and overcome the stagnation in which Latin American states live.","PeriodicalId":398103,"journal":{"name":"World Economy and International Relations","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114736719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Сhina: Military-Technical and Naval Aspects of Leadership","authors":"V. Kashin, L. Krasheninnikova, A. Piatachkova","doi":"10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-7-49-59","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-7-49-59","url":null,"abstract":"The rapid growth of Chinese military capabilities and the increasing role of the military – especially the naval – factor in the PRC politics in recent years can be perceived as a shift away from Beijing’s policy dating back to the “Reform and Opening-up”, which was expressly passive and peaceful. Meanwhile, the overall Chinese military potential growth is the result of the systematic implementation of policies rooted in the Deng Xiaoping’s era decisions. At the moment, the PRC is quickly closing the gap between the U.S. and Russia in the development of military technologies, and is even gaining leading positions in some areas. The study is aimed at revealing the origins of the current rise of China’s military power and its capability to reinforce its new proactive approach to world politics with necessary military resources. The main focus is on the analysis of the PRC naval forces as – along with the nuclear forces – they are the main tool for global projection of the state power. The study also addresses China’s other military capabilities, which enable it to influence the shaping of a new world order. It seems that in the 2020s, the PRC will already be able to support its foreign policy by using force efficiently, whereas containing China can be very costly and risky. The new Chinese blue water Navy will provide the mainstay of these capabilities, which will be additionally supported by the growing expeditionary capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force and the PLA Ground Force. The far-reaching plans to develop a maritime component for the PRC nuclear forces is another important factor influencing the Chinese naval development in a major war. The expected expansion of China’s nuclear capabilities and the possibility of the country’s approach to a third great nuclear power status will greatly limit the U.S. ability to deter China in Asia and around the world.","PeriodicalId":398103,"journal":{"name":"World Economy and International Relations","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115800259","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"China’s Path of Reform under Conditions of Globalization","authors":"O. Borokh, Lomanov Alexander","doi":"10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-6-66-75","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-6-66-75","url":null,"abstract":"The article is focused on theoretical debates on experience of reforms in China in the context of adaptation to new external and internal challenges. The specific features of Chinese reforms include the combination of benefiting from markets with preserving the regulatory role of the government. Skillful use of the advantages of backwardness assisted the processes of rapid assimilation of foreign experience and technologies. At the present stage, the PRC needs to upgrade national innovation capacities to counterbalance the risks brought by the technological blockade imposed by the West. Trade tensions with the United States revived the ideas of limiting private business and expanding government intervention in the economy. In 2018, a brief discussion about the role of private enterprise in China demonstrated that strengthening of centralized Party leadership is not equal to curtailing market reforms. The mainstream in Chinese economics calls for deepening reforms and expanding openness for the sake of national development. Beijing plans to continue industrialization and also to use the opportunities of the fourth industrial revolution to gain foothold in high technologies. Smooth functioning of multilateral mechanisms of global governance is the key prerequisite for achieving long-term goals of China’s modernization. Beijing claims the roles of ideological opponent of anti-globalization and cheerleader of new globalization movement. In early 2020, the coronavirus epidemic was a major test of the Chinese system’s resilience and its ability to sustain economic growth. Extra strengthening of centralized leadership and the concentration of resources in the “people’s war” against the epidemic brought positive results. Chinese experts are optimistic about long-term economic growth, citing a wealth of macroeconomic experience in dealing with crisis situations. The biggest concern is the possibility of switching to economic stimulus policy that accelerates growth by accumulating significant financial risks. After the epidemic, the importance of foreign markets for China’s economic growth has increased. This situation highlighted practical relevance of Chinese plans of supporting economic globalization.","PeriodicalId":398103,"journal":{"name":"World Economy and International Relations","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130997882","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Arms and Diplomacy","authors":"Arbatov Alexey","doi":"10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-6-9-23","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-6-9-23","url":null,"abstract":"The United States’ withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) in 2019 threatens to dismantle the entire nuclear arms control system built over the last 50 years. It may lead to an uncontrolled multilateral arms race involving strategic, intermediate-range, tactical nuclear and non-nuclear offensive and defensive weapons. This dangerous turn of events is met with different attitude by different politicians and experts. One expanding school of thought postulates that the bipolar world of the Cold War era has given way to multipolarity, so bilateral nuclear weapons restrictions are no longer feasible. This assumption is supplemented by a hypothesis that it is impossible to control the newest weapons and military technologies using previous methods of negotiations and agreements, so those methods should also be abandoned. The focus should allegedly shift to various multilateral forums on creating an environment for nuclear disarmament and enhancing nuclear deterrence, transparency and predictability. Thus, the main premise is that the current arms control crisis is unavoidable and does not pose much danger: it is possible to do without formal nuclear arms reduction, limitation and non-proliferation agreements. However, scientific analysis demonstrates that the above assumptions about the advent of nuclear multipolarity and effects of new technologies are wrong. Firstly, despite deep reductions in nuclear weapons over the last 30 years, the proportion of those controlled by the two leading nuclear powers has barely declined at all, and the nuclear landscape remains largely bilateral. Secondly, the revolutionary impact of military technological progress is not something new, but is a logical phenomenon that has occurred regularly throughout history. Nonetheless, five decades of experience clearly demonstrated that arms control can be very successful, provided there is political will at the highest governments’ level to reach agreements on limitation and reduction of nuclear weapons. Like in the past, in the foreseeable future, arms control measures are able to substantially reduce the threat posed by innovative weapons systems. No doubt, arms control agreements do have their limits. But overall, despite certain gaps and failures, the arms control process has scored a number of historical victories during the past 50 years, and it should remain at the core of international security, even if many problems cannot be resolved quickly or all at once. Only the continuation of nuclear arms control can create political and military conditions for eventual limitations of many innovative weapons systems and technologies, as well as for a phased shift to a multilateral format of nuclear disarmament.","PeriodicalId":398103,"journal":{"name":"World Economy and International Relations","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114602859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"U.S.-China Relations in 2018–2019: Trade War and the Process of Decoupling","authors":"Y. Leksyutina, Universitetskaya Emb. Saint-Petersburg Russian Federation","doi":"10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-6-85-93","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-6-85-93","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":398103,"journal":{"name":"World Economy and International Relations","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114486690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sources and Trends of Japanese International Relations Theories","authors":"Чугров Сергей Владиславович","doi":"10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-5-73-83","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-5-73-83","url":null,"abstract":"Japanese theories of international relations (IR) turn into an increasingly important subject of research by Russian political scientists as Russia progressively orientates toward the East. The research task of this article is to approach the understanding of the origins and current landscape of Japanese theoretical thought in IR, explaining its cultural, historical and political condition. Using the historical-genetic method, the author restores the stages of the genesis of the Japanese theoretical understanding of IR, painting a picture of historical continuity that helps to understand the political thinking of today’s Japanese. The author investigates the concepts of the contemporary Japanese theorists – Inoguchi Takashi, Tanaka Akihito, Anno Tadashi, – and other political scientists who determine the main trends of Japanese IR theories, which are the regional comparative studies (primarily Asian studies), specifically Japanese understanding of the soft power concept, political aspects of environmentalism, discourse of differences and a common denominator of Western and non-Western IR theories. Of practical importance is the analysis of the discussion of Japanese international affairs specialists on the transformation of Japan into an “ordinary country”, which has the prospect of rejecting the “peaceful” 9th article of the Japanese constitution and the historically established pacifist identity of the Japanese nation behind it. The author concludes that the most noticeable contribution of Japanese political scientists to world political science is the creative transformation and enrichment of Western concepts with non-Western approaches to world order.","PeriodicalId":398103,"journal":{"name":"World Economy and International Relations","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125614817","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Вeijing's Pain Points","authors":"Михеев Василий Васильевич, Луконин Сергей Александрович","doi":"10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-5-5-15","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-5-5-15","url":null,"abstract":"В конце 2019 – начале 2020 г. “болевые точки”, вызывающие обеспокоенность китайских властей, остались прежними. Однако в начале 2020 г. произошли изменения в иерархии их значимости – к ним прибавился коронавирус. Реализация первого этапа торговой “сделки” частично смягчила отношения между КНР и США, однако не сняла фундаментальные противоречия, связанные с нарастанием глобального соперничества двух стран. В китайской внутриполитической сфере продолжается тенденция на усиление контроля, направленного на обеспечение социальной стабильности. Вспышка коронавируса рассматривается китайскими властями как серьезная угроза национальной, в том числе социальной и экономической, безопасности. Экономическим приоритетом КНР становится не рост “любой ценой”, а качество такого роста. В российско-китайских отношениях продолжается сближение, основанное также на оспаривании американского гегемонизма.","PeriodicalId":398103,"journal":{"name":"World Economy and International Relations","volume":"80 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125997900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Contracted Gas Volume as Factor of Price Formation on Natural Gas Markets","authors":"S. Komlev, D. Chapaikin","doi":"10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-5-84-92","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-5-84-92","url":null,"abstract":"Long-term contracts (LTCs) are the hallmarks of the European and Asian gas markets. The dominance of LTCs in international trade leads to their “gravity-center” function in relation to spot prices. When regional gas market is tight, spot prices reside above the LTCs prices. When market is loose they reside below the LTCs prices, but in any case LTCs’ prices serve as anchor for spot gas prices. Taking into account that all market imbalances are concentrated in the spot or non-contracted segment of the market, its prices are overreacting to even insignificant market imbalances. Size of the uncontracted segment thus plays an important role in price formation for natural gas as it becomes a self-sufficient factor determining the volume of demand. Overcontracting, which artificially downscales the size of demand in the uncontracted market segment, often causes a negative spread between spot and contracts price. The paper examines the role of this factor in price formation by measuring correlation between the size of the uncontracted segment and spot price formation. Concerning Europe, the research showed a nearly linear relationship between the LTCs to imports index for pipeline gas and spot/contract price spreads. Such a relationship allows to build up a regression model for forecasting the spot prices. In Asia, ovecontracting leads to high volatility of spot prices. Their dependence on the size of uncontracted segment fully reveals itself in the periods of seasonal picks of demand for natural gas.","PeriodicalId":398103,"journal":{"name":"World Economy and International Relations","volume":"59 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124068380","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Norway’s Economic Policy in the Arctic","authors":"А Р Кравчук","doi":"10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-5-101-108","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-5-101-108","url":null,"abstract":"Исследуются состояние и роль нефтегазовой промышленности в экономике Норвегии, перспективы ее развития в контексте освоения углеводородных ресурсов Арктики, а также особенности современной энергетической политики страны. Дается оценка официальной позиции Осло относительно статуса морских пространств вокруг Шпицбергена и шельфовых месторождений архипелага, а также ее влияния на отношения с другими участниками Парижского договора.","PeriodicalId":398103,"journal":{"name":"World Economy and International Relations","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126411896","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"U.S. Withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and Its Possible Consequences","authors":"T. Rovinskaya","doi":"10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-4-106-118","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-4-106-118","url":null,"abstract":"Статья посвящена перспективам решения глобальной климатической проблемы в свете выхода США из Парижского соглашения по климату 2015 г. Автор анализирует основные этапы решения проблемы изменения климата на международном уровне (в рамках Организации Объединенных Наций), причины выхода Соединенных Штатов Америки из Парижского соглашения (озвученные президентом Д. Трампом в июне 2017 г.), последствия такого шага для самих США и для мирового сообщества в целом.","PeriodicalId":398103,"journal":{"name":"World Economy and International Relations","volume":"92 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125670314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}