拉丁美洲的抗议潜力:全球现象的区域方面

P. Yakovlev, B. Ordynka Str. Moscow Russian Federation, N. Yakovleva
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引用次数: 5

摘要

世界地缘政治和地缘经济失衡现象不断显现,国际社会面临新的危机冲击威胁。世界经济和贸易增长放缓、新保护主义和越来越多的制裁措施、对“不受欢迎的”政权的财政“绝望”、在叙利亚不断的军事行动、“冻结”(但也不包括乌克兰的破坏性冲突)以及国际生活中的许多其他危险现象都表明了这一点。最近,又出现了另一只“黑天鹅”——可能使个别国家和全球的经济和政治环境严重复杂化的意外事件。这当然是冠状病毒(COVID - 19)的传播,其各种负面影响尚未得到充分评估。但有一点已经很清楚:冠状病毒将对世界经济产生负面影响,“推动”其逆转到下一次全球危机,从而导致社会局势恶化。同样,席卷全球(包括许多拉丁美洲国家)的大规模社会政治抗议浪潮也需要对其进行全面的分析和反思。在这种情况下,有必要从两个方面考虑这一现象:a)抗议的主要原因和国家特征;B)全球发展的大趋势对抗议活动的制约,它们与新自由主义全球化时代形成的正在改变世界秩序的基本进程的联系。这一双重任务更加重要,因为根据咨询公司欧亚集团(Eurasia Group)专家的说法,到2020年,新的抗议活动,特别是在拉丁美洲,可能成为主要的全球风险之一。事实表明,该地区抗议活动的主要原因是公众对统治阶级与绝大多数人口之间日益加深的收入差距日益不满,腐败猖獗,当局无力为更大的公共利益解决积累的社会经济问题,并克服拉丁美洲国家的停滞状态。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Protest Potential of the Latin America: Regional Aspect of Global Phenomenon
The world is showing signs of geopolitical and geo-economical imbalance, which threatens the international community with new crisis shocks. This is indicated by a slowdown in the growth of the world economy and trade, neo-protectionism and increasing sanction measures, financial “hand-wringing” of “undesirable” regimes, the incessant military actions in Syria, the “frozen”, but with that not less the destructive conflict in Ukraine, and many other dangerous phenomena of international life. More recently, they have been joined by another “black swan” – the unexpected event that could critically complicate the economic and political environment, both in individual countries and globally. This is certainly the spread of coronavirus (COVID‑19), the various negative effects of which have yet to be fully assessed. But one thing is already clear: coronavirus will have a negative impact on the world economy, “push” its reversal to the next global crisis and, as a result, the deterioration of the social situation. Similarly, the powerful wave of mass sociopolitical protests that swept the world (including a number of Latin American states) requires its comprehensive analysis and reflection. In this case, it is necessary to consider this phenomenon in two dimensions: a) the main causes and country features of protests; b) the conditioning of protests by the megatrends of global development, their connection with the fundamental processes that are changing the world order, formed in the age of neoliberal globalization. This dual task is even more relevant, because, according to experts of the consulting company Eurasia Group, in 2020, new protests, particularly in Latin America, can become one of the main global risks. The facts show that the main reason for the protests in the region has been a growing public discontent with the deepening income gap between the ruling class and the vast majority of the population, rampant corruption, the inability of authorities to resolve accumulated socio-economic problems for the greater public good and overcome the stagnation in which Latin American states live.
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