Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica最新文献

{"title":"Productividad total de los factores y eficiencia en el uso de los recursos productivos en Colombia","authors":"F. Hamann, Fernando Arias-Rodríguez, J. Bejarano, Margarita Gáfaro, J. C. Méndez-Vizcaíno, Andrea Paola Poveda-Olarte","doi":"10.32468/espe.89","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32468/espe.89","url":null,"abstract":"Durante varias decadas, Colombia ha exhibido uno de los niveles mas bajos de productividad total de los factores de America Latina en terminos relativos frente a los paises desarrollados, lo que se ha traducido en una gran brecha de ingreso. En este trabajo mostramos que instituciones y politicas publicas que distorsionan los precios relativos de los bienes y servicios al igual que de los factores productivos, tales como costos para operar en la formalidad, impuestos a las firmas mas productivas y subsidios a las improductivas, barreras a la competencia, derechos monopolicos asignados para favorecer intereses particulares, por mencionar algunos ejemplos, pueden estar detras de estas grandes brechas de productividad e ingreso. Empleando y unificando diversas fuentes de informacion tanto a nivel urbano como rural y recurriendo a las teorias economicas mas recientes, mostramos que el efecto de esta clase de distorsiones es particularmente agudo en el caso del sector no-agricola. En el caso del sector agricola, instituciones y politicas que afectan a los agentes economicos de una forma homogenea (sin causar distorsiones en los precios relativos) resultan siendo mas importantes. Si bien nuestro estudio no identifica precisamente que politicas o instituciones especificas estan detras de las brechas, si resalta el enorme costo economico que implican para la sociedad. ****** For decades Colombia has shown a very low level of total factor productivity in Latin America, relative to the developed economies. This has translated in a large income gap. In this work we show that institutions and public policies that distort relative prices of goods and services and factors of production, like costs to operate in the formal economy, taxes to more productive firms and subsidies to less productive ones, barriers to competition, monopoly rights allocated to favor vested interests, to mention a few, may be behind these large gaps. Unifying diverse sources of statistical information for Colombia, as well as using the most recent developments in economic theory, we show that the adverse effect of such policies and institutions is particularly strong in the case of the non-agricultural sector. In the case of the agricultural sector, however, aggregate distortions (which do not distort relative prices) seems to be more relevant. Although our study does not identify precisely a particular type of institution or policy, it highlights the sizeable economic cost that they entail.","PeriodicalId":39184,"journal":{"name":"Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49403592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"La banca nacional de desarrollo en Colombia","authors":"J. Ocampo, Paola Arias, J. Torres","doi":"10.32468/ESPE.88","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32468/ESPE.88","url":null,"abstract":"En Colombia los bancos nacionales de desarrollo (BND) conforman un sistema de cuatro (inicialmente cinco) instituciones especializadas. Se han enfocado en atender, con instrumentos financieros y no financieros, cuatro fallas de mercado: (i) el escaso financiamiento de largo plazo para proyectos de infraestructura, donde la FDN y Findeter han desempenado un papel importante; (ii) la baja inclusion financiera, mediante el apoyo de Bancoldex y Finagro a pequenos y medianos productores; (iii) los altos riesgos asociados con la innovacion y el cambio estructural, un area en la cual Bancoldex debe ampliar su alcance, y (iv) el limitado financiamiento verde, para lo cual recientemente se ha establecido una coordinacion institucional, donde ya hay avances (como la creacion del mercado de bonos verdes). El papel de los BND en atender una quinta falla de mercado, el caracter prociclico del financiamiento privado, ha sido limitado. El tamano del sistema se ha reducido, comparado con el de los anos noventa: la participacion en el PIB crecio para Findeter, se mantuvo para Finagro, y disminuyo para Bancoldex y la FDN, aunque con un impulso reciente en este ultimo caso. Los bancos, excepto la FDN, operan mediante redescuento y se fondean con diversas fuentes nacionales e internacionales En su caso, Finagro se sigue beneficiando del credito dirigido. El conjunto de los BND debe avanzar en terminos de coordinacion, para actuar como un verdadero sistema, y debe desarrollarse un nuevo marco regulatorio para las operaciones de redescuento. ****** In Colombia, national development banks (NDB) constitute a system of four (initially five) specialized institutions. They have focused on attending, with financial and non-financial instruments, to four market failures: (i) the provision of long-term financing for infrastructure, in which FDN and Findeter have played an important role; (ii) limited financial inclusion of small and medium-sized producers, with support from Bancoldex and Finagro; (iii) the high risks associated to innovation and technical change, a field in which Bancoldex must expand its role; and (iv) limited green financing, for which there are recent coordinated actions and advances such as the promotion of a market for green bonds. The role of NDBs in attending to a fifth market failure, compensating for the pro-cyclical pattern of private financing, has been limited. The size of the system has shrunk vis-a-vis the early 1990s: its share of GDP has increased for Findeter, while remaining constant for Finagro, and has fallen for Bancoldex and FDN, albeit with a recent increase in the latter. Except for FDN, banks operate through rediscounts and are funded by different national and international sources. Finagro still benefits from directed credit. NDBs must advance in terms of coordination in order to operate as a true system, and there must be a new regulatory framework for rediscount operations.","PeriodicalId":39184,"journal":{"name":"Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44155487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Public Savings and the Effectiveness of Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention","authors":"Juan Camilo Medellín-Martínez","doi":"10.32468/espe.8507","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32468/espe.8507","url":null,"abstract":"Although theoretical models exist that support the Effectiveness of Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention (FXI), practiced by central banks with the objective of affecting the level and reducing the volatility of the exchange rate, empirical works provide mixed testimony for developed and emerging countries. Using a GARCH model, this paper aims to offer empirical evidence of how periods of public savings enhance the effectiveness of sterilized FXI for Colombia. To do so, it is necessary to estimate a policy shock measure based on the determinants of foreign exchange (FX) purchases made by the Colombian Central Bank over the 2010-2014 period. During this time span, Banco de la Republica performed an innovative type of foreign exchange purchases known as Pre-Announced Day-to-Day Interventions. A reaction function for this type of intervention has not yet been estimated. Here, this reaction function will be estimated with an ordinary least squares (OLS) model. ****** A pesar de que existen modelos teoricos que dan soporte a la efectividad de las intervenciones cambiarias practicadas por los bancos centrales con el objetivo de afectar la volatilidad o nivel de la tasa de cambio, la literatura empirica otorga resultados mixtos tanto para paises desarrollados como en via de desarrollo. Con la ayuda de un modelo GARCH, este trabajo quiere dar sustento empirico para Colombia sobre como las intervenciones cambiarias pueden realzar su efectividad en periodos de ahorro publico. Para lo anterior, es necesario estimar una medida de choque de politica a partir de los determinantes de las intervenciones cambiarias realizadas durante el periodo 2010-2014. A lo largo de este periodo de tiempo el Banco de la Republica realizo un novedoso tipo de intervencion llamado compras pre anunciadas dia a dia. Una funcion de reaccion no ha sido aun estimada para dicha intervencion. Aqui se utilizara un modelo de minimos cuadros ordinarios para su calculo.","PeriodicalId":39184,"journal":{"name":"Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42904293","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Determinants and Effects of Fiscal Counter-Cyclicality","authors":"D. Furceri, J. Jalles","doi":"10.32468/ESPE.8508","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32468/ESPE.8508","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides a novel dataset of time-varying measures of fiscal counter-cyclicality for an unbalanced panel of advanced and emerging market economies from 1980 to 2014. The use of time-varying measures of fiscal counter-cyclicality overcomes the major limitation of existing studies assessing the determinants and the effects of fiscal countercyclicality that rely on cross-country regressions and, therefore, are not able to account for country-specific as well as global factors. The key findings of the paper are as follows: (i) fiscal counter-cyclicality has increased over time for many economies over the last two decades; (ii) fiscal counter-cyclicality is positively associated with financial deepening, the level of economic development, trade openness, government size as well as with political factors; (iii) fiscal counter-cyclicality significantly reduces output volatility. Our results are robust to various specifications and endogeneity checks. ****** Este documento ofrece un novedoso conjunto de datos con medidas de la contraciclicidad de la politica fiscal que son variantes en el tiempo, para un panel desbalanceado de economias avanzadas y emergentes desde 1980 hasta 2014. El uso de medidas fiscales contraciclicas que cambian en el tiempo, supera la principal limitacion de los estudios existentes sobre la materia, que usualmente evaluan los determinantes y los efectos de la contraciclicidad fiscal basados en regresiones a traves de paises y, por lo tanto, no dan cuenta de los efectos especificos por pais ni de los efectos globales. Los hallazgos mas importantes del trabajo son los siguientes: (i) la contraciclicidad fiscal ha aumentado durante las ultimas dos decadas en muchas economias; (ii) la contraciclicidad fiscal esta asociada positivamente con la profundizacion financiera, el nivel de desarrollo economico, la apertura comercial, el tamano del gobierno, asi como con factores politicos; y (iii) la contraciclicidad fiscal reduce significativamente la volatilidad del producto. Nuestros resultados son robustos a varias especificaciones y verificaciones de endogeneidad.","PeriodicalId":39184,"journal":{"name":"Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.32468/ESPE.8508","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42618803","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impact of efficiency on the economic growth of emerging economies: The case of Colombia","authors":"Víctor Giménez, Diego Prior, Emili Tortosa‐Ausina","doi":"10.32468/ESPE.8505","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32468/ESPE.8505","url":null,"abstract":"As is well established (Robinson and Acemoglu, 2012), the economic performance of countries depends on the level of quality of its institutions. Referring to the economic performance, this paper establishes the aggregate efficiency of 133 countries in the generation of GDP by using the production theory framework and considering the participation of human as well as physical capital. Additionally, it is analyzed to what extent the aggregated performance depends on the level of quality and effectiveness of the subsequent national public institutions. It is also determined whether or not the size of the public expending, and its level of efficiency, have an impact on the rate of economic growth. To conclude, the conditions to favor the public expending as a driver for economic growth are determined. After a general overview, the specific situation of Colombia is analyzed. The results confirm the importance of the quality of the institutions on the respective levels of efficiency. It is also verified how the level of efficiency is a key factor to obtain economic growth from the public spending. ****** Como esta bien establecido (Robinson y Acemoglu, 2012), el desempeno economico de los paises depende del nivel de calidad de sus instituciones. Con relacion al desempeno economico, este articulo estima la eficiencia agregada de 133 paises en la generacion de produccion agregada (PIB) mediante el uso del marco de referencia de la teoria de la produccion y considerando la participacion tanto del capital humano como el fisico. Adicionalmente, se analiza hasta que punto el desempeno agregado depende del nivel de calidad y efectividad de las subsecuentes instituciones publicas nacionales. Se establece ademas si el tamano del gasto publico, y su nivel de eficiencia, tienen o no un impacto en la tasa de crecimiento economico. Para finalizar, se determinan las condiciones que favorecen el gasto publico como fuerza impulsora del crecimiento economico. Despues de ofrecer una vision general, se analiza el caso colombiano. Los resultados confirman la importancia de la calidad de las institucines sobre los niveles de eficiencia respectivos. Se verifica ademas como el nivel de eficiencia es un factor fundamental para conseguir crecimiento economico a partir del gasto publico.","PeriodicalId":39184,"journal":{"name":"Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica","volume":"24 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41249397","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies","authors":"Todd B. Walker","doi":"10.32468/ESPE.8501","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32468/ESPE.8501","url":null,"abstract":"I document the decline in the rate of inflation in 14 emerging economies after the implementation of an inflation targeting (IT) regime. I briefly describe how each country implements the IT, and argue that the new regime forced policy coordination amongst various governmental units, allowed for a more singular focus, and more transparent policy making process. This allowed agents to better coordinate expectations which precipitated the decline in the rate of inflation. I also document the difficulty with hitting a precise inflation target over a short period of time in the same countries. A model of policy coordination is presented to show how inflation is determined by joint behavior of monetary and fiscal policies. ****** Documento el descenso de la tasa de inflacion despues de la implementacion del regimen de Inflacion Objetivo (OI) en 14 economias emergentes. Describo brevemente como cada pais implemento IO y argumento que el nuevo regimen forzo una coordinacion de politicas entre varios entes gubernamentales, esto ultimo facilitado por un proceso de toma de decisiones mas transparente y con un enfoque mas puntual. Esto permitio que los agentes economicos coordinaran mejor sus expectativas induciendo asi una reduccion en la tasa de inflacion. Para los mismos paises, tambien documento la dificultad de acertar a una meta de inflacion precisa en un corto periodo de tiempo. Para mostrar como la inflacion esta determinada por la accion conjunta de las politicas fiscal y monetaria, presento un modelo de coordinacion de politicas.","PeriodicalId":39184,"journal":{"name":"Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41364662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"What is the Fiscal Stress in Euro Area? Evidence from a Joint Monetary-Fiscal Structural Model","authors":"Eddie Gerba","doi":"10.32468/ESPE.8502","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32468/ESPE.8502","url":null,"abstract":"El articulo estudia la importancia de la politica fiscal en la estabilizacion de la economia \u0000de la Zona Euro y el grado de interaccion con la politica monetaria. Los resultados \u0000ofrecen evidencia solida de una reaccion fiscal comun en la union monetaria a pesar de \u0000que formalmente no existe una union fiscal. Se identifican los choques a nivel de la zona \u0000y se encuentra que las respuestas (endogenas) de las politicas fiscales a esos choques son \u0000estadisticamente significativas. Asimismo se encuentra evidencia fuerte de la interaccion \u0000entre las politicas fiscal y monetaria. No obstante, la naturaleza de esa interaccion depende \u0000mucho del tipo de los choques. Ademas, la forma en que cada uno de los dos tipos de \u0000politica fiscal interactua con la politica monetaria es diferente e independiente de la otra. \u0000Adicionalmente el multiplicador del gasto es mayor que el de los impuestos; sin embargo, \u0000su relativa eficacia ha variado en el tiempo, con el multiplicador del gasto (impuesto) \u0000cayendo (aumentando) desde el comienzo de la Gran Recesion. Finalmente, se hallan \u0000diferencias considerables en la naturaleza de las interacciones de las politicas fiscal y \u0000monetaria entre la zona euro y los Estados Unidos. Aparte de que los impulso respuestas \u0000a los diferentes choques son significativamente diferentes, los multiplicadores fiscales \u0000varian demasiado. La politica fiscal keynesiana (u orientada al gasto) es mas efectiva \u0000en expandir la actividad economica en la Zona Euro mientras que las reducciones de \u0000impuestos son mas efectivas en los Estados Unidos.","PeriodicalId":39184,"journal":{"name":"Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41970318","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Non-Linear Fiscal Multipliers for Public Expenditure and Tax Revenue in Colombia","authors":"Alejandro López-Vera, Andrés Pinchao-Rosero, Norberto Rodríguez-Niño","doi":"10.32468/ESPE.8503","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32468/ESPE.8503","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes the non-linear and asymmetric effects of fiscal multipliers for expenditure and tax revenue for the Colombian economy. For this purpose, we use autoregressive vector models with smooth transition estimated with Bayesian methods between 1995-Q1 and 2015-Q4. The results show evidence of the existence of dependence on the impact (non-linearity) and none-asymmetry of fiscal multipliers. We found that expenditure and tax revenue multipliers are higher when the economy is in periods of a negative output gap than when it is positive. Also, the expenditure multipliers are slightly lower than the tax revenue multipliers regardless of the state of the economy. *** Este documento analiza los efectos no lineales y asimetricos de los multiplicadores fiscales de gasto e ingresos tributarios para la economia colombiana. Para ello se utilizan modelos de vectores autorregresivos con transicion suave estimados con metodos bayesianos, para el periodo comprendido entre 1995-Q1 y 2015-Q4. Los resultados muestran evidencia de existencia de dependencia en el impacto (no linealidad) y no asimetria de los multiplicadores fiscales. De esta manera, se encuentra que los multiplicadores de gasto e impuestos son mayores cuando la economia esta en periodos de brecha del producto negativa, que cuando es positiva. Ademas, los multiplicadores de gastos son inferiores que los de ingreso por impuestos, independiente del estado de la economia en el que se encuentren.","PeriodicalId":39184,"journal":{"name":"Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45377520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fusiones y adquisiciones en América Latina: un análisis de los factores macroeconómicos","authors":"Lina M. Cortés, John J. García, B. López","doi":"10.32468/ESPE.8602","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32468/ESPE.8602","url":null,"abstract":"Este estudio analiza la influencia de variables macroeconomicas, en especial del ciclo economico, sobre el numero de fusiones y adquisiciones (FyA) en Latinoamerica entre 1995 y 2014. Utilizando los modelos PCSE y binomial negativo, se encuentra que las variables macroeconomicas en el pais objetivo (target) tienen un efecto sobre las FyA y explican alrededor de un tercio del cambio en la actividad. Especificamente, se encuentra que el ciclo economico, la liquidez y la depreciacion tienen un efecto positivo sobre dichas transacciones, mientras que la inflacion tiene un efecto negativo. Ademas, se observa que el impacto del ciclo economico es mucho mayor cuando se trata de transacciones transfronterizas y que, corrigiendo problemas de asimetria del ciclo, durante las epocas de expansion la actividad de FyA es mayor comparativamente con periodos de recesion. ****** The present study analyzes the influence of macroeconomic variables, especially the economic cycle, on the number of FyA in Latin America between 1995 and 2014. Using PCSE and Negative Binomial models, it is found that macroeconomic variables at target country level have an effect on FyA and explain around one-third of the activity variation. Specifically, it is noted that the economic cycle, liquidity and depreciation have a positive effect on such transactions, while inflation has a negative effect. In addition, it is observed that the impact of the economic cycle is much greater when dealing with cross-border transactions and, after correcting problems of business cycle symmetry, FyA activity is larger during times of expansion compared to recession periods.","PeriodicalId":39184,"journal":{"name":"Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42281844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Subjective Earnings and Academic Expectations of Tertiary Education in Colombia","authors":"Luis F. Gamboa, P. Rodriguez-Lesmes","doi":"10.32468/ESPE.8601","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32468/ESPE.8601","url":null,"abstract":"We analysed the academic expectations and earning expectations of a nationally representative sample of Colombian students who were finishing their upper-secondary education (high school) and considering three potential scenarios: whether to finish their studies, enrol in a vocational career, or pursue a college degree. We found that these students’ earning expectations are correlated with local labour market wages. However, they expect earnings as university graduates that are significantly above the current observed earnings, which is not the case for the other two levels of education. We also found that earning and academic expectations (test scores and odds of attending college) are closely related to their family socioeconomic background, school and municipality characteristics, and even reflect aspects such as gender gaps or private school premiums. Finally, both academic and earnings expectations are related to actual realised test scores. ****** Analizamos las expectativas academicas y de ingresos de una muestra representativa de estudiantes colombianos en el ultimo ano de educacion media secundaria, en el cual consideramos tres posibles escenarios: terminar sus estudios, inscribirse en una carrera vocacional, u obtener un titulo profesional. Encontramos que los estudiantes tienen expectativas de ingresos correlacionadas con los salarios observados en el mercado laboral. No obstante, sus expectativas de ingreso en el caso de obtener un titulo profesional son notablemente superiores a los ingresos observados, lo que no ocurre en los otros dos posibles escenarios. Tambien encontramos que las expectativas de ingreso y academicas (resultados de pruebas estandarizadas y la probabilidad de ir a una universidad) estan relacionadas con las caracteristicas socioeconomicas de sus familias, colegio y variables clave del municipio, reflejando aspectos como las brechas de genero o el bono de estudiar en un colegio privado. Finalmente, los dos tipos de expectativas estan relacionadas con los resultados obtenidos en las pruebas oficiales estandarizadas.","PeriodicalId":39184,"journal":{"name":"Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43201038","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}