Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica最新文献

{"title":"Efectos diferenciales de la tasa de cambio real sobre el comercio manufacturero en Colombia","authors":"A. T. García, Thomas Goda, S. González","doi":"10.32468/ESPE.8603","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32468/ESPE.8603","url":null,"abstract":"Este trabajo es el primero en construir un indice de tasa de cambio real sectorial bilateral (TCRSB) para diecinueve subsectores manufactureros en Colombia, que considera las diferencias de cada uno de ellos en terminos de sus socios comerciales y costos relativos internos y externos. Este indice es usado para determinar la importancia de la TCR en la dinamica de las exportaciones e importaciones de cada subsector para el periodo 2006-2013. Los resultados muestran, en primer lugar, que existe una alta heterogeneidad subsectorial en terminos del comportamiento de sus respectivas TCRSB; en segundo lugar, la importancia de la TCRSB como determinante de los flujos de comercio internacional manufacturero colombiano y, finalmente, la heterogeneidad de sus sensibilidades con respecto a esta tasa. Con el fin de verificar la bondad de estas estimaciones, se hacen dos estimaciones alternativas usando indices de TCR agregados (indice de TCR bilateral y de TCR sectorial), encontrando que ninguno de ellos logra mejorar el desempeno de la TCRSB. ****** This paper is the first to construct bilateral sector-specific real effective exchange rate indices (TCRSB) for 19 manufacturing sectors in Colombia, which consider sectoral differences in terms of commercial partners and relative cost differences. These indices are used to determine the importance of the real effective exchange rate (REER) to explain sectoral export and import dynamics over the period 2006 to 2013. The results indicate a significant heterogeneity between the sectors in terms of changes in the TCRSB; the importance of the TCRSB to explain changes in Colombia’s manufacturing trade flows; and relevant differences in the price elasticity of the distinct sectors. When comparing these results with those obtained when using aggregate REER indices (i.e. a bilateral and sectoral REER index), we find that neither of these improves the performance of the TCRSB.","PeriodicalId":39184,"journal":{"name":"Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46933765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Political Transfer Cycles from the Centre to the states","authors":"Ganesh Manjhi, M. Mehra","doi":"10.32468/ESPE.8604","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32468/ESPE.8604","url":null,"abstract":"Using the pooled-mean group method (PMG), this paper attempts to trace the political transfer cycles in parliamentary and assembly elections in India from 1980-81 to 2010-11. It is found that the political transfer cycles are more pronounced in the year before parliamentary elections and in the year of assembly elections in the case of loans from the centre. Furthermore, from the binary Logit specification it is established that opportunistic manipulations of grants from the centre, in the year before parliamentary elections and the levels of loans from the centre in the year of assembly elections can help the incumbent regain its power. Inflation is found to be electorally harmful for the incumbent as it increases the likelihood of losing the election at union level, but not necessarily at state level. Similarly, a right-wing government is more likely to win the election, whereas, if the centre and the states have the same government or if the state government is an ally, the possibility of retaining power for the union government is lowered, and it is raised in the case of state-level governments. Furthermore, a coalition government, in general, reduces the possibility of winning in both parliamentary and state elections. ****** Usando el metodo agrupamiento de medias (PMG), este documento intenta estimar los ciclos de las transferencias en las elecciones parlamentarias y de asambleas en India desde 1980-81 hasta 2010-11. Encontramos que dichos ciclos son mas pronunciados en el ano anterior a las elecciones parlamentarias y en el ano de las elecciones de asambleas en el caso de los prestamos desde el centro. Adicionalmente, a partir de un modelo Logit, se pudo establecer que las manipulaciones oportunistas de las subvenciones del centro en el ano anterior a las elecciones parlamentarias y los niveles de prestamos del centro en el ano de las elecciones de la asamblea pueden ayudar a mantener el poder de quien actualmente lo detenta. Se encuentra que la inflacion es electoralmente perjudicial para los gobernantes, ya que aumenta la probabilidad de perder las elecciones a nivel nacional, pero no necesariamente a nivel de los estados. Del mismo modo, es mas probable que un gobierno de derecha gane las elecciones, mientras que, si el centro y los estados tienen el mismo gobierno o si el gobierno del estado es un aliado, la posibilidad de retener el poder para el gobierno nacional se reduce, y aumenta en el caso de los gobiernos a nivel estatal. Asimismo, un gobierno de coalicion, en general, reduce la posibilidad de ganar en las elecciones parlamentarias y estatales.","PeriodicalId":39184,"journal":{"name":"Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49270340","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reglas fiscales para exportadores de materias primas: una aplicación para Perú","authors":"Gustavo Ganiko, Carlos Montoro","doi":"10.32468/ESPE.8504","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32468/ESPE.8504","url":null,"abstract":"Presentamos un modelo semiestructural, el cual captura la dinamica de las principales \u0000variables macrofiscales en economias exportadoras de bienes basicos (commodities), \u0000para analizar los efectos macroeconomicos de cuatro reglas fiscales: (i) un limite al \u0000deficit observado, (ii) un limite al deficit estructural, (iii) un limite al crecimiento del \u0000gasto publico, y (iv) una regla que incluye conjuntamente las reglas (i) y (iii). \u0000Este modelo es estimado para la economia peruana utilizando informacion del periodo \u00002000-2015. Se encuentra que el diseno optimo de un marco fiscal se puede resumir en un \u0000trilema entre sostenibilidad fiscal, estabilidad macroeconomica y transparencia. La regla \u0000estructural, si bien depende de la estimacion de variables no observables que dificultan su \u0000monitoreo, reduce las fluctuaciones de la actividad economica y del gasto publico, pero \u0000aumenta la volatilidad del ratio de deuda publica. En contraste, la regla basada en limites \u0000al deficit observado es mas facil de monitorear y genera una senda mas estable de la deuda \u0000publica, pero aumenta la volatilidad del PBI (Producto Bruto Interno) y del gasto publico. \u0000Finalmente, la aplicacion conjunta de un limite al deficit fiscal observado y un tope al \u0000crecimiento del gasto publico es un caso intermedio entre las dos reglas en terminos de \u0000volatilidad macroeconomica.","PeriodicalId":39184,"journal":{"name":"Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47969198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Study on spillover effect between international soybean market and China's domestic soybean market","authors":"Kun Ma ,&nbsp;Gang Diao","doi":"10.1016/j.espe.2017.11.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.espe.2017.11.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Due to high import dependency, China's domestic soybean market became unstable and soybean production was lingering and declining. It would be better to know the correlation between international and China's domestic soybean market for policy-making and production decision. This study used data of CBOT soybean futures price, imported soybean distribution price at Qingdao port and soybean spot price in China from September 10, 2011 to November 19, 2016 and chose multivariate GARCH model to check the spillover effect and correlation between them. The results showed that price volatilities of three markets had significant clustering effect while GARCH effect was stronger than ARCH effect. The spillover effect and correlations between markets were remarkable. It demonstrated the imported soybean market was significantly affected by the international soybean future market volatility, and such instability then resulted in violent fluctuations of China's domestic soybean spot market. Policies should be made to keep China's soybean industry safe and developed.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":39184,"journal":{"name":"Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica","volume":"35 84","pages":"Pages 260-266"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.espe.2017.11.003","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43227320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Índice de títulos 2017","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.espe.2017.12.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.espe.2017.12.001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":39184,"journal":{"name":"Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica","volume":"35 84","pages":"Pages 267-270"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.espe.2017.12.001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"92074917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Determinantes macro y microeconómicos para pruebas de tensión de riesgo de crédito: un estudio comparativo entre Ecuador y Colombia basado en la tasa de morosidad","authors":"Adriana Uquillas,&nbsp;Carlos González","doi":"10.1016/j.espe.2017.11.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.espe.2017.11.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The impact of nonperforming loans determinants of Ecuador and Colombia is obtained in order to apply them to stress tests. Estimated ARIMAX models suggest that in Ecuador shocks are rapidly transmitted. The delinquency of both countries is negatively sensitive to liquidity (the most important factor) and the intermediation rate, but their impacts and the speed of transmission are different.</p><p>In Ecuador, the price of oil, volume of credit and economic activity are important determinants. In Colombia, the stock market shock is negative and immediate; import shocks are the most important and it are transmitted in the short and medium term. The impacts of manufacturing production occur later.</p><p>This is the first empirical research that compares, between both countries, the impact of each factor on nonperforming loans. The models contribute to propose economic and management policies that produce impacts on the performance of nonperforming loans.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":39184,"journal":{"name":"Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica","volume":"35 84","pages":"Pages 245-259"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.espe.2017.11.002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43445716","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Análisis empírico de los efectos económicos de la colusión: lecciones para Colombia","authors":"Jorge Flórez Acosta ,&nbsp;Karoll Gómez Portilla","doi":"10.1016/j.espe.2017.11.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.espe.2017.11.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper empirically examines the economic effects of the so-called the baby diapers cartel in Colombia. We use data on quantities sold and unit prices of diapers at the region level in the period 2004-2016, and we carry out two exercises: first, following the line of analysis of the Colombian competition authority, we use time-series methods to analyze market prices between 2004 and 2016. Results suggest mixed evidence on the impact of the collusive behavior on the market. In a second exercise, we estimate a structural model of supply and demand that allows us to regain marginal costs and price-cost margins of the firms in the industry. Based on simulations of counterfactual scenarios ranging from more intense competition to perfect collusion, we show that the industry numbers in the cartel period are closer to a competitive scenario rather than to a collusive one. Our results suggest that a coordination failure between the firms in the cartel may have taken place.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":39184,"journal":{"name":"Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica","volume":"35 84","pages":"Pages 222-244"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.espe.2017.11.001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48760651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The role of capital requirements and credit composition in the transmission of macroeconomic and financial shocks","authors":"Oscar Valencia ,&nbsp;Daniel Osorio ,&nbsp;Pablo Garay","doi":"10.1016/j.espe.2017.09.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.espe.2017.09.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span><span>This paper builds a general equilibrium model that incorporates a bank, borrowing constraints, default and an exogenous capital requirement to study the effect of the latter on the composition of bank funding and on the response of the economy to shocks. Ex-ante heterogeneous households decide how much to save or borrow for the sake of consumption (consumer credit) or the provision of housing services(mortgages). These choices are subject to borrowing limits, which depend on the value of real estate assets (for mortgages) or labour income (for consumer loans). The model includes a final good producer and a continuum of </span>intermediate goods<span> producers who must borrow in order to finance working capital/labour requirements (business credit borrowing) and are subject to nominal rigidities. Saving and borrowing are intermediated by a bank facing exogenous capital requirements that differ for each credit category. Capital requirements are modelled as a penalty function following </span></span><span>Den Haan and De Wind (2012)</span><span>. The paper focuses on the response of the model economy to monetary, productivity and financial shocks with or without capital requirements. In the absence of capital requirements, any shock that reduces the deposit rate will incentivize the bank to switch away from bank capital into deposits, thus increasing the demand for deposits and dampening the effect of the shock on interest rates and the price of housing services. The main effect of capital requirements in the model is to disrupt the ability of the bank of switching to cheaper funding sources (deposits) after a shock. Capital requirements thus have the effect of amplifying the response of aggregate variables to shocks through the composition of the right-hand side of the balance-sheet of the bank, and not through the well-studied channel of leverage constraints affecting its left-hand side.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":39184,"journal":{"name":"Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica","volume":"35 84","pages":"Pages 203-221"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.espe.2017.09.001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"92105777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Choques externos y remesas internacionales en las regiones de Colombia","authors":"Leonardo Bonilla-Mejía","doi":"10.1016/j.espe.2017.05.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.espe.2017.05.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper assesses the effect of external shocks on household income from a regional perspective. External shocks are measured interacting economic growth in migrant-recipient countries and region-specific migration flows. Effects are estimated using difference-in-difference models in a sample of household surveys from 2007 to 2015. Results show that positive growth periods in migrant-recipient countries have positive effects on income in high-migration regions, which is largely explained by increasing remittances. Most gains come from labour income in households without remittances, which indicates that remittances generate significant positive externalities. Effects on health coverage, school attendance, and child labour tend to be smaller and vary by country.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":39184,"journal":{"name":"Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica","volume":"35 84","pages":"Pages 189-202"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.espe.2017.05.001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"92105778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Financial transaction tax and banking margins: An empirical note for Colombia","authors":"Ignacio Lozano-Espitia ,&nbsp;Hernando Vargas-Herrera ,&nbsp;Norberto Rodríguez-Niño","doi":"10.1016/j.espe.2017.03.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.espe.2017.03.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Taxes on financial transactions have been especially controversial because of their potential effects on banking disintermediation. A modality of such taxes (Bank Debit Tax, BDT) was introduced in Colombia since the late nineties. Using monthly panel data from 1996 to 2014 for the major depository institutions, this paper provides evidence on the effects of the BDT on bank intermediation spread. For the total sample (thirteen banks), results suggest that nowadays the hypothetical elimination of the BDT would reduce spreads in 60 basis points, i.e. from 7.7% to levels close to 7.1%. The results do not provide clear evidence of differential impacts by bank size. Additional instruments of the financial repression as well as other determinants of banking spreads confirm the expected effects.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":39184,"journal":{"name":"Ensayos Sobre Politica Economica","volume":"35 83","pages":"Pages 154-160"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.espe.2017.03.001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48915622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}