Risk Analysis最新文献_第7页

Kenneth Olden: Whatever you do, do it well. 肯尼斯-奥尔登无论做什么，都要做好。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-09-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14753

Michael R Greenberg, Karen W Lowrie

引用次数: 0

Is the "avoidance" group truly defensive? The interplay between perceived risk, efficacy, and behaviors. 回避 "群体真的具有防御性吗？感知风险、效能和行为之间的相互作用。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-09-01 Epub Date: 2024-03-05 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14290

Ruobing Li

引用次数: 0

Modeling prevention behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic using Bayesian belief networks and protection motivation theory. 利用贝叶斯信念网络和保护动机理论模拟 COVID-19 大流行期间的预防行为。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-09-01 Epub Date: 2024-03-14 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14287

Brent Vizanko, Leonid Kadinski, Christopher Cummings, Avi Ostfeld, Emily Zechman Berglund

{"title":"Modeling prevention behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic using Bayesian belief networks and protection motivation theory.","authors":"Brent Vizanko, Leonid Kadinski, Christopher Cummings, Avi Ostfeld, Emily Zechman Berglund","doi":"10.1111/risa.14287","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.14287","url":null,"abstract":"Prevention behaviors are important in mitigating the transmission of COVID-19. The protection motivation theory (PMT) links perceptions of risk and coping ability with the act of adopting prevention behaviors. The goal of this research is to test the application of the PMT in predicting adoption of prevention behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic. Two research objectives are achieved to explore motivating factors for adopting prevention behaviors. (1) The first objective is to identify variables that are strong predictors of prevention behavior adoption. A data-driven approach is used to train Bayesian belief network (BBN) models using results of a survey of <math> <semantics><mrow><mi>N</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>7797</mn></mrow> <annotation>$N=7797$</annotation></semantics> </math> participants reporting risk perceptions and prevention behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic. A large set of models are generated and analyzed to identify significant variables. (2) The second objective is to develop models based on the PMT to predict prevention behaviors. BBN models that predict prevention behaviors were developed using two approaches. In the first approach, a data-driven methodology trains models using survey data alone. In the second approach, expert knowledge is used to develop the structure of the BBN using PMT constructs. Results demonstrate that trust and experience with COVID-19 were important predictors for prevention measure adoption. Models that were developed using the PMT confirm relationships between coping appraisal, threat appraisal, and protective behaviors. Data-driven and PMT-based models perform similarly well, confirming the use of PMT in this context. Predicting adoption of social distancing behaviors provides insight for developing policies during pandemics.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140132440","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Climate risk and green total factor productivity in agriculture: The moderating role of climate policy uncertainty. 气候风险与农业绿色全要素生产率：气候政策不确定性的调节作用。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17639

Miao Wang, Yangle Song, Xinmin Zhang

{"title":"Climate risk and green total factor productivity in agriculture: The moderating role of climate policy uncertainty.","authors":"Miao Wang, Yangle Song, Xinmin Zhang","doi":"10.1111/risa.17639","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17639","url":null,"abstract":"In light of the escalating global warming and the escalating frequency of extreme weather events, the agricultural sector, being a fundamental and pivotal industry worldwide, is encountering substantial challenges due to climate change. Using Chinese provincial panel data for 2000-2021, this paper utilizes a two-way fixed-effect model to investigate the impact of Climate Risk (CR) on green total factor productivity in agriculture (AGTFP), with China's climate policy uncertainty (CPU) being introduced as a moderating variable within the research framework to scrutinize its influence in this context. The findings reveal a noteworthy adverse effect of CR on AGTFP, further exacerbated by CPU. Heterogeneity analysis results show that there is a clear regional variation in the effect of CR on AGTFP across different Chinese regions, with CR significantly inhibiting AGTFP development in the northern regions and provinces in major grain producing regions. Consequently, there is a pressing necessity to bolster the establishment of climate change monitoring infrastructures, devise tailored climate adaptation strategies at a regional level, and enhance the clarity and predictability of climate policies to fortify the resilience and sustainability of agricultural production systems.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142111564","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Wells-Riley model revisited: Randomness, heterogeneity, and transient behaviours. 威尔斯-瑞利模型再探：随机性、异质性和瞬态行为。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-09-01 Epub Date: 2024-03-19 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14295

Alexander J Edwards, Marco-Felipe King, Catherine J Noakes, Daniel Peckham, Martín López-García

{"title":"The Wells-Riley model revisited: Randomness, heterogeneity, and transient behaviours.","authors":"Alexander J Edwards, Marco-Felipe King, Catherine J Noakes, Daniel Peckham, Martín López-García","doi":"10.1111/risa.14295","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.14295","url":null,"abstract":"The Wells-Riley model has been widely used to estimate airborne infection risk, typically from a deterministic point of view (i.e., focusing on the average number of infections) or in terms of a per capita probability of infection. Some of its main limitations relate to considering well-mixed air, steady-state concentration of pathogen in the air, a particular amount of time for the indoor interaction, and that all individuals are homogeneous and behave equally. Here, we revisit the Wells-Riley model, providing a mathematical formalism for its stochastic version, where the number of infected individuals follows a Binomial distribution. Then, we extend the Wells-Riley methodology to consider transient behaviours, randomness, and population heterogeneity. In particular, we provide analytical solutions for the number of infections and the per capita probability of infection when: (i) susceptible individuals remain in the room after the infector leaves, (ii) the duration of the indoor interaction is random/unknown, and (iii) infectors have heterogeneous quanta production rates (or the quanta production rate of the infector is random/unknown). We illustrate the applicability of our new formulations through two case studies: infection risk due to an infectious healthcare worker (HCW) visiting a patient, and exposure during lunch for uncertain meal times in different dining settings. Our results highlight that infection risk to a susceptible who remains in the space after the infector leaves can be nonnegligible, and highlight the importance of incorporating uncertainty in the duration of the indoor interaction and the infectivity of the infector when estimating risk.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140158960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Influence of a private-public risk pool and an opt-out framing on earthquake protection demand for Canadian homeowners in Quebec and British Columbia. 加拿大魁北克省和不列颠哥伦比亚省屋主对地震防护需求的公私风险池和选择退出框架的影响。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-09-01 Epub Date: 2024-02-27 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14285

Howard Kunreuther, Lynn Conell-Price, Bohan Li, Paul Kovacs, Katsuichiro Goda

{"title":"Influence of a private-public risk pool and an opt-out framing on earthquake protection demand for Canadian homeowners in Quebec and British Columbia.","authors":"Howard Kunreuther, Lynn Conell-Price, Bohan Li, Paul Kovacs, Katsuichiro Goda","doi":"10.1111/risa.14285","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.14285","url":null,"abstract":"This article describes the design and analysis of web-based choice experiments that examine how the demand for earthquake protection in Quebec and British Columbia (BC), Canada, is influenced by the default option and the structure of the insurance plan. Homeowners in both provinces were given the opportunity to purchase protection against earthquake losses when presented with one of the following options: the current private insurance plan and proposed public-private Risk Pools with different levels of the public layer. The default frame was changed so the homeowner could either opt-in by purchasing this coverage or opt-out of being given this protection and receiving a premium discount. Assigning participants to the public-private Risk Pools rather than the current private insurance plan increases the likelihood of purchasing earthquake insurance protection by an odds ratio of 2.7 or greater in BC and Quebec. Furthermore, opt-out enrollment design substantially increases take-up of earthquake protection relative to opt-in enrollment. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139983715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Cultural values, risk characteristics, and risk perceptions of controversial issues: How does cultural theory work? 有争议问题的文化价值观、风险特征和风险认知：文化理论如何发挥作用？

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17636

Ianis Chassang, Odile Rohmer, Bruno Chauvin

{"title":"Cultural values, risk characteristics, and risk perceptions of controversial issues: How does cultural theory work?","authors":"Ianis Chassang, Odile Rohmer, Bruno Chauvin","doi":"10.1111/risa.17636","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17636","url":null,"abstract":"Cultural theory and the psychometric paradigm are two frameworks proposed to explain risk perceptions, mostly used independently of each other. On the one hand, psychometric research identified key characteristics of hazards responsible for their level of perceived riskiness. On the other hand, cultural studies provided evidence that different worldviews lead to divergent perceptions of risk in a way supportive of individuals' cultural values. The purpose of this research was to combine both approaches into mediational models in which cultural values impact risk perceptions of controversial hazards through their influence on the characteristics associated with those hazards. Using data from an online survey completed by 629 French participants, findings indicated specific associations between cultural values and risk characteristics, both of them exhibiting effects on risk perceptions that depend largely on hazardous issues. More specifically, we found that people confer specific characteristics on hazards (common or dreadful, beneficial or costly, affecting few or many people), depending on whether they are hierarchists-individualists, egalitarians, or fatalists; in turn, such characteristics have an impact on the perceived riskiness of hazards such as cannabis, social movement, global warming, genetically modified organisms, nuclear power, public transportation, and coronavirus. Finally, this article discussed the interest of addressing the mechanisms that explain how cultural values shape individuals' perceptions of risk.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142111565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Risk management during times of health uncertainty in Spain: A qualitative analysis of ethical challenges. 西班牙健康不稳定时期的风险管理：对伦理挑战的定性分析。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17638

Ignacio Macpherson, Juan J Guardia, Isabel Morales, Belén Zárate, Ignasi Belda, Wendy R Simon

{"title":"Risk management during times of health uncertainty in Spain: A qualitative analysis of ethical challenges.","authors":"Ignacio Macpherson, Juan J Guardia, Isabel Morales, Belén Zárate, Ignasi Belda, Wendy R Simon","doi":"10.1111/risa.17638","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17638","url":null,"abstract":"The study examines the reflections of various experts in risk management when asked about uncertainty generated by a health threat and the response to such a threat: what criteria should guide action when potential harm is anticipated, but not known with certainty? The objective of the research is to obtain a holistic perspective of ethical conflicts in risk management, based on experts' accounts within the Spanish territory. A qualitative study was conducted through semi-structured interviews with 27 experts from various fields related to health risk management and its ethical implications, following the grounded theory method. The method includes theory generation through an inductive approach, based on the identified categories. The 27 narratives obtained revealed a variety of fundamental issues grouped into 8 subcategories and subsequently grouped into three main categories. The first category focuses on human vulnerability in health matters. The second category explores the agents and instruments for decision-making that arise from uncertain or traumatic social events. The third category refers to the need for common ethical paradigms for all humanity that implement justice over universal values. A main theory was suggested on the concept of responsibility in a global common good. There is an urgent need to assume this integrative responsibility as an inherent strategy in decision-making. To achieve this, the involved actors must acquire specific humanistic training, conceptualizing fundamental ethical principles, and emphasizing skills more related to humanistic virtues than technical knowledge.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142111568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Predicting pharmaceutical supply chain disruptions before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. 预测 COVID-19 大流行之前和期间的药品供应链中断。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17453

Andrea C Hupman, Juan Zhang, Haitao Li

{"title":"Predicting pharmaceutical supply chain disruptions before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.","authors":"Andrea C Hupman, Juan Zhang, Haitao Li","doi":"10.1111/risa.17453","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17453","url":null,"abstract":"Disruptions to the pharmaceutical supply chain (PSC) have negative implications for patients, motivating their prediction to improve risk mitigation. Although data analytics and machine learning methods have been proposed to support the characterization of probabilities to inform decisions and risk mitigation strategies, their application in the PSC has not been previously described. Further, it is unclear how well these models perform in the presence of emergent events representing deep uncertainty such as the COVID-19 pandemic. This article examines the use of data-driven models to predict PSC disruptions before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using data on generic drugs from the pharmacy supply chain division of a Fortune 500 pharmacy benefit management firm, we have developed predictive models based on the naïve Bayes algorithm, where the models predict whether a specific supplier or whether a specific product will experience a supply disruption in the next time period. We find statistically significant changes in the relationships of nearly all variables associated with product supply disruptions during the pandemic, despite pre-pandemic stability. We present results showing how the sensitivity, specificity, and false positive rate of predictive models changed with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and show the beneficial effects of regular model updating. The results show that maintaining model sensitivity is more challenging than maintaining specificity and false positive rates. The results provide unique insight into the pandemic's effect on risk prediction within the PSC and provide insight for risk analysts to better understand how surprise events and deep uncertainty affect predictive models.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142111566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Risk incident analyses in the transportation of anhydrous ammonia as an emerging clean energy resource. 作为新兴清洁能源的无水氨在运输过程中的风险事故分析。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17634

Md Ferdousul Haque Shikder, Yili Tang, Eman Almehdawe, Jefferson Cruz Araújo

引用次数: 0