Risk Analysis最新文献

{"title":"Addressing related but competing risks: Effectiveness of an antibiotic stewardship intervention during COVID-19.","authors":"Yanmengqian Zhou, Michelle L Acevedo Callejas, Erina L Farrell","doi":"10.1111/risa.70039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70039","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Previous research on risk information behaviors has primarily focused on responses to a single target risk, without considering how related risks might influence information behaviors regarding the target risk. Guided by the Risk Information Seeking and Processing (RISP) model and drawing on theory and research taking a social context approach to risk communication, we developed a video-based intervention for promoting favorable antibiotic risk information behaviors that targets key predictors-including perceived risk, information insufficiency, and perceived information gathering capacity (PIGC)-theorized in RISP and addresses COVID-19 as a related risk factor. Experimentally testing the effectiveness of this video against a previously developed video that did not reference COVID-19 and a control group with no video exposure, we found that both videos increased perceived risk from antibiotics and PIGC. Relative to the original video, the extended, COVID-contextualized video led to greater knowledge about the ineffectiveness and harm of taking antibiotics for COVID-19. Results from structural equation modeling showed that knowledge about the ineffectiveness directly decreased information-avoidance intention. Knowledge about the harm, on the other hand, indirectly increased information seeking and reduced avoidance intention by heightening perceived risk, which led to negative affect and, in turn, elevated information insufficiency. In addition, information-seeking intention increased with greater PIGC. These relationships further varied by fear of COVID-19, with antibiotic risk information behaviors among high-fear individuals being more strongly influenced by COVID-related judgments than those with low fear. Implications of the findings for message designs in multirisk situations are discussed.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144010094","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Why ignore expiry dates on cosmetics? A qualitative study of perceived risk and its implications for cosmetics producers and regulators.","authors":"Yujiao Wang, Gary Davies, James Derbyshire, Farid Ullah","doi":"10.1111/risa.70040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70040","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Consumers often use cosmetics long after their expiry date, despite the health risk. This paper aims to understand why and to suggest policy changes that can promote safer practices in cosmetics use. This is the first study to investigate risk perception in relation to expired cosmetics. Thirty-three semistructured interviews with both cosmetics users and employees of cosmetics companies were conducted in the United Kingdom and China. Perceived risk theory was found to be a useful analytical lens. Eight risk factors emerged from the data, including two not previously identified. Combinations of risk were also found to be valuable in explaining consumer attitudes to cosmetic expiry dates, which suggests that perceived risk factors interact with each other to create an emergent perception of risk, requiring an integrated understanding. While physical, performance and self-brand connection risk can promote adherence to an expiry date, other risk factors such as financial and social risk can override such concerns, leading to the expiry date being ignored. Implications for suppliers' and regulators' policies and risk-communication strategies are identified that may help reduce the risks being taken by cosmetics users.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144043883","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A multi-perspective process safety risk assessment with hybrid risks.","authors":"Tahere Vafaee, M A S Monfared","doi":"10.1111/risa.70028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70028","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this paper, we assert that the process safety risks vary based on the identity of the stakeholders involved, for example, employees, management, regulators, community members, insurance companies, and environment. These risks differ in perceptions, magnitudes, and ramifications across an array of stakeholders. Hence, the process safety risk assessment taken from a single perspective, as is often the case, is inadequate and perhaps misleading. Instead, a more realistic approach is a multi-perspective risk assessment by considering the interactions existing among different perspectives and by building concurrent and compatible models explicitly. This marks the first innovation of the current research work. The second innovation centers on the hybrid nature of risk analysis. We recognize the distinction between safety risks impacting human well-being and risks affecting facilities, properties, capital assets, and the environment. The research introduces a hybrid safety-facility risk assessment to address different types of risks. Still, developing multiple models to represent hybrid risks from different perspectives is complex, time-consuming, tedious, and very costly. In addition, results from multiple models may become incompatible, confusing the stakeholders. To avoid such difficulties, a comprehensive model is developed initially, which, while impractical itself, allows for the extraction of practical perspective-based models through reduction. The methodology was illustrated and validated by examining a city gas pressure reduction station from 12 different perspectives, illustrating different risk results and highlighting the necessity of a multi-perspective and hybrid risk approach for accurate process safety risk analysis. However, the methodology is widely applicable across different risk assessment areas, not limited to the process safety of a city gate station (CGS). Furthermore, the twelve perspectives considered are specific to the context of the CGS case in a suburb of Tehran and may vary in other situations. By incorporating these practices, organizations can ensure a more comprehensive, inclusive, and accurate assessment of process safety risks, ultimately leading to better risk management and decision-making.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144010089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the dependence between extreme rainfall and extreme insurance claims: A bivariate peak over threshold method.","authors":"Yue Shi","doi":"10.1111/risa.70033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70033","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. For insurance companies, it is essential to identify and quantify extreme climate risk. They must set aside enough capital reserve to bear the costs of extreme events, otherwise, they can be put in a danger of facing bankruptcy. In this article, I employ the state-of-the-art bivariate peak over threshold method to study the dependence between extreme rain events and extreme insurance claims. I utilize a novel insurance data set on home insurance claims related to rainfall-induced damage in Norway and select two large Norwegian municipalities to investigate the impact of heavy rain on large claim numbers. Based on the model estimates and tail dependence measures, I find evidence that extremely high numbers of insurance claims have the strongest dependence with rainfall intensity and daily rain amounts. I also identify the region-specific difference in rainfall variables as a key indicator of home insurance risk. The findings offer insights into the complex dynamics between extreme rainfall and extreme claim numbers in home insurance. Contributing to the long-term sustainability of the insurance industry, the proposed method facilitates the development of tailor-made pricing models and robust capital reserve management in the face of changing climate.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143996230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mapping risks of water injustice and perceptions of privatized drinking water in the United States: A mixed methods approach.","authors":"Alex Segrè Cohen, Catherine E Slavik, Sami Kurani, Joseph Árvai","doi":"10.1111/risa.70012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70012","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>About 2 million people in the United States do not have access to running water or indoor plumbing in their homes. In addition, 30 million more Americans live where water systems operate unsafely. More still could have access to clean and safe drinking water but cannot afford to pay for it. Water privatization has been proposed as both a solution to and an exacerbator of these challenges, but its potential consequences have not been investigated on a national scale. Data from the US Environmental Protection Agency's Safe Drinking Water Information System and the US Center for Disease Control's Environmental Justice Index were used to assess the spatial distribution of water injustice hotspots, water system violations, and water system ownership. These data were merged with a nationally representative survey of US residents that measured how people perceive their water across different water injustice indicators. Results indicated that water system violations were not randomly distributed across the United States and risks of exposure to water injustice appeared to cluster in certain locations as hotspots. Clusters of water system violations were spatially associated with private water system ownership. Hotspots of water injustice were more often surrounded by counties with low proportions of privately owned water systems than counties with high proportions. Results also suggested that individuals living in areas with higher water injustice perceived their water as lower quality and less reliable. Water system ownership moderated this relationship. Recommendations for policymakers are discussed, including how to build collaborative decision-making processes that account for both objective and subjective measures of water injustice.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143994260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Susan Cutter: Social vulnerability, resilience, and risk.","authors":"Michael Greenberg, Karen Lowrie","doi":"10.1111/risa.70037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70037","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144012698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exposure to BTEX concentrations in different indoor microenvironments: Emphasis on different times of the year.","authors":"Amir Hossein Khoshakhlagh, Saeid Yazdanirad, Pierre Sicard","doi":"10.1111/risa.70032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70032","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Climatic variations in indoor environments may change concentration patterns. This systematic review and meta-analysis study aimed to investigate exposure to benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (s) (BTEX) concentrations in different indoor microenvironments with emphasis on different times of the year. A systematic review in five bibliographic databases (Scopus, PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and Medline) was conducted. Adhering to PRISMA guidelines, the search utilized four groups of keywords. The pooled indoor exposure to BTEX under different climatic conditions were estimated using a random-effects model. Among 64 selected articles, the greatest percentage of studies with the highest indoor exposure for BTEX in vehicles and transportation areas was in summer. The highest percentage of these studies at home was in winter. The highest percentage of these studies in educational and sport centers was in winter and summer. In the vehicles and transportation areas, the pooled concentration (µg/m³) of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene(s) were calculated as 29.12, 102.33, 19.24, and 22.73 in summer, respectively. In the homes and sites, the pooled concentration (µg/m³) of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene(s) were measured as 6.39, 22.06, 6.21, and 11.33 in winter, respectively. In the educational and sport centers, the pooled concentration (µg/m³) of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene(s) were calculated as 3.15, 11.09, 5.55, and 5.63 in summer and 2.97, 8.09, 4.16, and 5.49 in winter, respectively. The results of this study introduce the seasons with the greatest concentrations of BTEX in different indoor environments.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143803987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Critical monitoring and control factors for achieving food defense criteria.","authors":"Elaine Andrade, Flavio Andrade, Gilberto Oliveira, Otniel Freitas-Silva","doi":"10.1111/risa.70025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70025","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Food can be contaminated by physical, chemical, biological, and radiological hazards. Industry and regulatory agencies have developed the Food Safety Management System, based on the principles of Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points, to be effective against unintentional food safety risks. However, there is the intentional contamination of food to cause harm to consumers, customers, or companies, and prevention requires a different approach to controlling unintentional food safety risks; this concept is known as food defense. There are certification standards that include food defense requirements referenced to the Global Food Safety Initiative (GFSI), such as the British Retail Consortium, International Featured Standards, Food Safety System Certification 22000, and Safe Quality Food Institute. In the context of food producers, it is crucial to understand the critical success factors for implementing standards involved in food defense and increasing the effectiveness and sustainability of exporting agroindustries. The present study aimed to map the essential success factors for implementing food defense in Brazilian companies already certified by the standards recognized by the GFSI, to take advantage of this expertise for companies seeking to implement food defense. Quantitative and qualitative research was conducted by a survey of the perception of those responsible for implementing food safety standards regarding the relevance of food defense requirements to guarantee food protection. Data analysis was performed through correspondence analysis. It was possible to identify groups and formulate a reduced list of priority criteria for the implementation of food defense, to facilitate and accelerate the adaptation process of companies not yet certified, helping to raise the level of food safety for consumers, in addition to contributing to economic growth through new entrants in the export and import chain.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143781018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Belief updating in AI-risk debates: Exploring the limits of adversarial collaboration.","authors":"Josh Rosenberg, Ezra Karger, Zach Jacobs, Molly Hickman, Avital Morris, Harrison Durland, Otto Kuusela, Philip E Tetlock","doi":"10.1111/risa.70023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70023","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We organized adversarial collaborations between subject-matter experts and expert forecasters with opposing views on whether recent advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) pose an existential threat to humanity in the 21st century. Two studies incentivized participants to engage in respectful perspective-taking, to share their strongest arguments, and to propose early-warning indicator questions (cruxes) for the probability of an AI-related catastrophe by 2100. AI experts saw greater threats from AI than did expert forecasters, and neither group changed its long-term risk estimates, but they did preregister cruxes whose resolution by 2030 would sway their views on long-term risk. These persistent differences shrank as questioning moved across centuries, from 2100 to 2500 and beyond, by which time both groups put the risk of extreme negative outcomes from AI at 30%-40%. Future research should address the generalizability of these results beyond our sample to alternative samples of experts, and beyond the topic area of AI to other questions and time frames.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143781016","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Extracting information content on radiation risks from the receiver perspective: Examining Fukushima residents 10 years after the Fukushima nuclear reactor accident.","authors":"Motoko Kosugi, Reiko Kuwagaki, Tomoko Tsuchiya","doi":"10.1111/risa.70029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70029","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The purpose of this study was to clarify how more useful information could be provided to Fukushima Prefecture residents (below, information \"receivers\"), who are still anxious about radiation risks 10 years after the Fukushima Nuclear Reactor accident. Using the mental model approach, mental models on radiation risks were developed for experts and receivers, with Fukushima residents being the expected readers. The degree of anxiety among receivers about radiation immediately after the accident was compared with their current degree of anxiety, and they were divided into two groups (those with reduced anxiety and those with unchanged anxiety) to create mental models. By comparing the three models, it was found that the receivers generally understand the effects of radiation on health, the environmental dosages, their relationship with the human body, and decontamination methods and effectiveness. It was also observed that they are uninformed about the properties of radioactive substances, effective doses, and expulsion of ingested radioactive substances. There were no major differences between the two receiver models, suggesting that the content and extent of knowledge regarding radiation risks are not directly linked to current anxiety. However, the group with reduced anxiety had a greater level of basic radiation knowledge, suggesting that after the accident, they sought out or recalled more of the knowledge provided.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143773147","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}