Risk Analysis最新文献_第7页

Water outage predictions for natural hazards using synthetic water distribution systems. 利用合成配水系统对自然灾害进行停水预测。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70004

Zaira Pagan-Cajigas, Seth Guikema, Rosalia Otaduy-Ramirez, Vanessa Woolley, Kaleb Smith, Tongxing Hu, Thomas Chen

{"title":"Water outage predictions for natural hazards using synthetic water distribution systems.","authors":"Zaira Pagan-Cajigas, Seth Guikema, Rosalia Otaduy-Ramirez, Vanessa Woolley, Kaleb Smith, Tongxing Hu, Thomas Chen","doi":"10.1111/risa.70004","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70004","url":null,"abstract":"Hazards can impact water systems, leading to water outages that result in economic, environmental, and societal losses. Modeling a system's behavior helps develop short-term restoration strategies and long-term resilience planning. However, data on the topology and operational characteristics of real water systems are often unavailable outside of the utility operating the system, limiting the ability of others depending on the system to understand its vulnerability and resilience. We address this limitation by developing an algorithm that generates a synthetic water distribution system using only publicly available data. Our approach provides hydraulic information at the building level to support infrastructure resilience assessments. We validated our model by comparing the network topologic and hydraulic properties with data from the real water system of Ann Arbor, Michigan. Our synthetic model results indicate that 95% of the simulated building-level pressures were within <math> <semantics><mrow><mo>±</mo> <mspace></mspace> <mn>25</mn></mrow> <annotation>$ pm ;25$</annotation></semantics> </math> PSI of the hydraulic model data from the existing system. To demonstrate an application of our model, we simulated water outages at the building level using hazard loading and fragility functions corresponding to an earthquake scenario.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2116-2131"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12411128/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143472903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A framework for resilience assessment of transportation networks exposed to geohazard threats. 面对地质灾害威胁的交通网络复原力评估框架。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-09 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70014

Chao Fang, Mingce Wang, Haoran Fu, Yanze Chu, Enrico Zio

引用次数: 0

Arsenic content and exposure in brown rice compared to white rice in the United States. 在美国糙米和白米中砷的含量和接触量。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-28 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70008

Christian Kelly Scott, Felicia Wu

{"title":"Arsenic content and exposure in brown rice compared to white rice in the United States.","authors":"Christian Kelly Scott, Felicia Wu","doi":"10.1111/risa.70008","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70008","url":null,"abstract":"Brown rice is often considered a healthy alternative to white rice due to the additional nutrients contained within the rice bran. However, the proposition of improved health outcomes by replacing white rice with brown rice in diets ignores a potential food safety concern: arsenic exposure. In this manuscript, we seek to critically compare potential arsenic exposure and the associated risks between brown and white rice for US populations. Rice bran and brown rice are shown to have a higher arsenic content and inorganic arsenic concentration than the grain endosperm or white rice. Americans who regularly consume brown rice versus white rice were found to have higher estimated arsenic exposures. Because young children consume considerably more food relative to their bodyweights than adults, brown rice consumption in young children was found to more substantially increase foodborne arsenic exposures. However, there are no acute public health risks indicated for the general American population from rice-related arsenic exposures. Risk-benefit analyses are needed to assess relative risks of arsenic exposure in brown rice compared with the nutritional benefits, in comparison to white rice.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2183-2196"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12411130/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143524288","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Should I stay or should I go? Leveraging data-driven approaches to explore the effect of various disaster policies on postearthquake household relocation decision-making. 我该留下还是走？利用数据驱动的方法，探讨各种灾害政策对震后家庭搬迁决策的影响。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-11 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70007

Chenbo Wang, Gemma Cremen, Carmine Galasso

{"title":"Should I stay or should I go? Leveraging data-driven approaches to explore the effect of various disaster policies on postearthquake household relocation decision-making.","authors":"Chenbo Wang, Gemma Cremen, Carmine Galasso","doi":"10.1111/risa.70007","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70007","url":null,"abstract":"Devastating earthquakes can cause affected households to relocate. Postearthquake relocation disrupts impacted households' social ties and, in some instances, their access to affordable services. Simulation-based approaches that model postearthquake relocation decision-making can be valuable tools for supporting the development of related disaster risk reduction (DRR) policies. Yet, existing versions of these models focus particularly on housing-related factors, which are not the sole driver of postearthquake relocation. We integrate data-driven approaches and local data to account for postearthquake household relocation decision-making within an existing simulation-based framework for policy-related risk-sensitive decision support on future urban development. We use household survey data related to the 2015 Gorkha earthquakes in Nepal to develop a random forest model that estimates the postearthquake relocation inclination of disaster-affected households. The developed model holistically captures various context-specific factors important to postearthquake household relocation decision-making. We leverage the framework to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of various DRR policies in reducing positive postearthquake relocation inclination, with an explicit focus on low-income households. We demonstrate it using \"Tomorrowville,\" a hypothetical expanding urban extent that reflects important social and physical characteristics of Kathmandu, Nepal. Our analyses suggest that the provision of livelihood assistance funds is more successful when it comes to mitigating positive postearthquake relocation inclination than hard policies focused on strengthening buildings (at least in the context of the examined case study). They also suggest viable pro-poor pathways for mitigating disaster relocation impacts without the need to create potentially politically sensitive income-based restrictions on policy remits.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2267-2284"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12411129/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143606243","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Applications of interpretable ensemble learning for workplace risk assessment: The Chinese coal industry as an example. 可解释集成学习在工作场所风险评估中的应用：以中国煤炭行业为例。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17708

QiFei Wang, YiHan Zhao, JunLong Wang, Shuai Liu, HaoLin Liu, Yang Qu, YingFeng Sun, ChengWu Li

{"title":"Applications of interpretable ensemble learning for workplace risk assessment: The Chinese coal industry as an example.","authors":"QiFei Wang, YiHan Zhao, JunLong Wang, Shuai Liu, HaoLin Liu, Yang Qu, YingFeng Sun, ChengWu Li","doi":"10.1111/risa.17708","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17708","url":null,"abstract":"Machine learning has demonstrated potential in addressing complex nonlinear changes in risk assessment. However, further exploration is needed to enhance model interpretability and optimize performance. Therefore, this study aims to develop a novel workplace risk assessment framework. By utilizing the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis method and ensemble learning algorithms, the framework maps characteristic attributes to risk levels. Reliability validation of the framework and analysis of critical attribute components are conducted using accidents in Chinese coal enterprises as a case study, which represents one of the most serious occupational hazards. The results indicate that addressing interpretability issues of ensemble learning algorithms yields a model capable of accurately assessing workplace risk and understanding model decision-making processes. Comparative experiments show that the model achieves an accuracy of up to 98.3%, confirming its robust performance. The outcomes of the SHAP model for feature importance facilitate the identification of critical attributes that explain causal relationships leading to risk-level findings. This provides valuable accident prevention strategies to minimize occupational injuries and losses.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2097-2115"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143468903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A framework for evolving assumptions in risk analysis. 风险分析中不断演变的假设框架。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-08 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70009

Kendrick Hardaway, Roger Flage

引用次数: 0

Zero Trust Architecture as a Risk Countermeasure in Small-Medium Enterprises and Advanced Technology Systems. 零信任架构作为中小企业和先进技术系统的风险对策。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-31 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70026

Ahmed M Abdelmagid, Rafael Diaz

{"title":"Zero Trust Architecture as a Risk Countermeasure in Small-Medium Enterprises and Advanced Technology Systems.","authors":"Ahmed M Abdelmagid, Rafael Diaz","doi":"10.1111/risa.70026","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70026","url":null,"abstract":"The growing sophistication of cyberattacks exposes small- and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) to a widening range of security risks. As these threats evolve in complexity, the need for advanced security measures becomes increasingly pressing. This necessitates a proactive approach to defending against potential cyber intrusions. Emerging technologies, such as blockchain, artificial intelligence, and Zero Trust security framework, offer crucial tools for strengthening the digital infrastructure of SMBs. The Zero Trust architecture (ZTA) holds significant promise as a critical strategy for protecting SMBs. While existing literature explores the implementation of ZTA in various business settings, discussions specifically addressing the financial, human resource, and capability limitations of SMBs remain scarce. Given the vital role of SMBs in the global economy, this research offers a valuable opportunity to bridge this gap and assist researchers and practitioners in enhancing the cybersecurity of SMBs through ZTA adoption by examining and classifying potential risks that may arise during the pre- and post-deployment phases of ZTA implementation within SMBs. The risks, benefits, and challenges of ZTA adoption are introduced from the unique perspective of SMBs. Practical solutions and mitigation strategies will be provided to address the identified ZT risks and streamline the migration process for SMBs. The findings of that research showed that ZTA will bolster the cybersecurity posture and reduce the cyber risk for SMBs only if they address its associated risks effectively. Future research directions underscore the need for more research to help SMBs migrate to ZTA and mitigate the risks it may pose.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2390-2414"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12411126/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143754383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Global sensitivity analyses for test planning with black-box models for Mars Sample Return. 火星样品返回黑箱模型测试计划的全局敏感性分析。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-13 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70010

Giuseppe Cataldo, Emanuele Borgonovo, Aaron Siddens, Kevin Carpenter, Martin Nado, Elmar Plischke

{"title":"Global sensitivity analyses for test planning with black-box models for Mars Sample Return.","authors":"Giuseppe Cataldo, Emanuele Borgonovo, Aaron Siddens, Kevin Carpenter, Martin Nado, Elmar Plischke","doi":"10.1111/risa.70010","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70010","url":null,"abstract":"This work describes sensitivity analyses performed on complex black-box models used to support experimental test planning under limited resources in the context of the Mars Sample Return program, which aims at bringing to Earth rock, regolith, and atmospheric samples from Mars. We develop a systematic workflow that allows the analysts to simultaneously obtain quantitative insights on key drivers of uncertainty, the direction of impact, and the presence of interactions. We apply optimal transport-based global sensitivity measures to tackle the multivariate nature of the output and we rely on sensitivity measures that do not require independence between the model inputs for the univariate output case. On the modeling side, we apply multifidelity techniques that leverage low-fidelity models to speed up the calculations and make up for the limited amount of high-fidelity samples, while keeping the latter in the loop for accuracy guarantees. The sensitivity analysis reveals insights useful to understand the model's behavior and identify the factors to focus on during testing, in order to maximize the informational value extracted from these tests and ensure mission success even with limited resources.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2300-2322"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143625648","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Shifting landscape of terrorism: A 50-year spatiotemporal analysis. 恐怖主义的变化：一个50年的时空分析。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-30 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70018

Shupeng Lyu, Chen Qian, Ching-Hung Lee

{"title":"Shifting landscape of terrorism: A 50-year spatiotemporal analysis.","authors":"Shupeng Lyu, Chen Qian, Ching-Hung Lee","doi":"10.1111/risa.70018","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70018","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal evolutionary characteristics of global terrorism from 1970 to 2020, providing a comprehensive understanding of its dynamics and patterns. The research seeks to fill gaps in existing literature by integrating geographic perspectives and methods to enhance the understanding of terrorism's spatial and temporal dimensions. The study employs a multi-methodological approach, combining the Mann-Kendall trend test, spatial autocorrelation analysis, kernel density estimation, and standard deviational ellipse. These methods are applied to data from 176 countries, covering 171,327 terrorist incidents recorded in the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) from 1970 to 2020. Pertinent findings are as follows. Temporally, global terrorism risk has evolved significantly over the past five decades and involves four distinct stages, i.e., emerging stage (1970-1991), descending stage (1992-2000), rampant stage (2001-2014), and attenuating stage (2015-2020). Meanwhile, 117 countries show an increasing trend, and 56 countries show a decreasing trend in terrorism risk. Spatially, the distribution of global terrorism is characterized by clustering and aggregation, with a constant shift in the gravity center and dominant direction. In addition, the spatial hotspots of global terrorism are predominantly presented as \"two major core circles and multiple sub-centers.\"","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2375-2389"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143754380","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Extracting information content on radiation risks from the receiver perspective: Examining Fukushima residents 10 years after the Fukushima nuclear reactor accident. 从受者视角提取辐射风险信息内容：福岛核反应堆事故10年后福岛居民调查。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-03 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70029

Motoko Kosugi, Reiko Kuwagaki, Tomoko Tsuchiya

{"title":"Extracting information content on radiation risks from the receiver perspective: Examining Fukushima residents 10 years after the Fukushima nuclear reactor accident.","authors":"Motoko Kosugi, Reiko Kuwagaki, Tomoko Tsuchiya","doi":"10.1111/risa.70029","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70029","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this study was to clarify how more useful information could be provided to Fukushima Prefecture residents (below, information \"receivers\"), who are still anxious about radiation risks 10 years after the Fukushima Nuclear Reactor accident. Using the mental model approach, mental models on radiation risks were developed for experts and receivers, with Fukushima residents being the expected readers. The degree of anxiety among receivers about radiation immediately after the accident was compared with their current degree of anxiety, and they were divided into two groups (those with reduced anxiety and those with unchanged anxiety) to create mental models. By comparing the three models, it was found that the receivers generally understand the effects of radiation on health, the environmental dosages, their relationship with the human body, and decontamination methods and effectiveness. It was also observed that they are uninformed about the properties of radioactive substances, effective doses, and expulsion of ingested radioactive substances. There were no major differences between the two receiver models, suggesting that the content and extent of knowledge regarding radiation risks are not directly linked to current anxiety. However, the group with reduced anxiety had a greater level of basic radiation knowledge, suggesting that after the accident, they sought out or recalled more of the knowledge provided.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2415-2426"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12411120/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143773147","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0