Risk Analysis最新文献

{"title":"Flood footprint assessment: Assessing external assistance' impact on post-disaster recovery.","authors":"Zhao Zeng, Nan Wang, Zengkai Zhang, Huimin Wang, Huibin Du","doi":"10.1111/risa.70013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70013","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Mitigating the risks posed by natural disasters has become a pressing public concern due to their increasingly frequent and intense occurrences, which threaten human lives and socio-economic development. External assistance (EA), as a common form of support for post-disaster reconstruction, has been recognized as significant in several studies. However, the lack of an assessment method has made it unclear to what extent economic recovery can be affected by EA. To address this problem, we adopt the flood footprint as an indicator and improve the flood footprint model by combining it with the consideration of EA. The purpose is to quantify the economic impact of EA on post-disaster recovery. In a successful application case of the 2013 Super Typhoon Haiyan disaster in Hainan province, China, we have validated the feasibility and flexibility of our approach. We found that EA, which accounted for 2.4% of direct economic losses, resulted in a 7.31% reduction of indirect economic losses in the Hainan case. These findings indicate that EA positively impacts short-term economic risk reduction, despite its complex influence on the overall economy. Furthermore, through scenario analysis on alternative EA schemes, we discuss that the ration scheme is a significant factor in determining EA's impact. Policymakers can minimize the indirect flood footprint and facilitate post-disaster economic recovery by implementing alternative EA schemes.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143586548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A framework for evolving assumptions in risk analysis.","authors":"Kendrick Hardaway, Roger Flage","doi":"10.1111/risa.70009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70009","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Risk assessment can be used to evaluate the risks of complex systems and emerging technologies, such as the human-climate nexus and automation technologies, and to inform pathways and policies. Due to the interconnected and evolutionary features of such topics, risk analysts must navigate the dynamics of changing assumptions and probabilities in the risk assessment. However, the current risk analysis approach neglects to a large extent an explicit consideration of these dynamics, either oversimplifying complex systems or neglecting the likely human response to emerging technologies. In this article, we outline why the evolutionary dynamics of assumptions and probabilities in a risk assessment must receive close attention, and then we provide a possible framework through which to consider the dynamics. Ultimately, we propose a formal approach to conceptualizing and implementing the risk description with respect to feedback loops and complex adaptive systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143586546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Information value versus flexibility cost: Comparison of dual sourcing and artificial intelligence sourcing for resilient supply.","authors":"Baozhuang Niu, Zebin Zheng, Lingfeng Wang","doi":"10.1111/risa.70005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70005","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In global trade practices, varying inspection and quarantine standards frequently cause import disruptions. To manage such customs risk, artificial intelligence (AI)-based intelligent sourcing strategy and traditional dual-sourcing strategy are two widely used strategies to guarantee supply resilience. In this study, we formulate the main trade-offs to adopt AI sourcing, including the information analytics value, the increased flexibility cost, and the altered competition/cooperation structure among the stakeholders. We find that the importer would prefer the AI-sourcing strategy when the customs disruption probability is high, and the local production cost is moderate. Moreover, the cost-efficiency of the AI-sourcing strategy is usually lower than the expectation due to the supplier's pricing behavior. When it comes to the resilience indicator evaluation, we find that, surprisingly, the importer is more likely to be cost-oriented rather than resilience-oriented. Therefore, pursuing resilience cannot be always attractive but low cost can. Even though the advent of AI sourcing will not change this insight.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143543261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cultural values, risk characteristics, and risk perceptions of controversial issues: How does cultural theory work?","authors":"Ianis Chassang, Odile Rohmer, Bruno Chauvin","doi":"10.1111/risa.17636","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17636","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Cultural theory and the psychometric paradigm are two frameworks proposed to explain risk perceptions, mostly used independently of each other. On the one hand, psychometric research identified key characteristics of hazards responsible for their level of perceived riskiness. On the other hand, cultural studies provided evidence that different worldviews lead to divergent perceptions of risk in a way supportive of individuals' cultural values. The purpose of this research was to combine both approaches into mediational models in which cultural values impact risk perceptions of controversial hazards through their influence on the characteristics associated with those hazards. Using data from an online survey completed by 629 French participants, findings indicated specific associations between cultural values and risk characteristics, both of them exhibiting effects on risk perceptions that depend largely on hazardous issues. More specifically, we found that people confer specific characteristics on hazards (common or dreadful, beneficial or costly, affecting few or many people), depending on whether they are hierarchists-individualists, egalitarians, or fatalists; in turn, such characteristics have an impact on the perceived riskiness of hazards such as cannabis, social movement, global warming, genetically modified organisms, nuclear power, public transportation, and coronavirus. Finally, this article discussed the interest of addressing the mechanisms that explain how cultural values shape individuals' perceptions of risk.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"682-700"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11954724/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142111565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Risk management during times of health uncertainty in Spain: A qualitative analysis of ethical challenges.","authors":"Ignacio Macpherson, Juan J Guardia, Isabel Morales, Belén Zárate, Ignasi Belda, Wendy R Simon","doi":"10.1111/risa.17638","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17638","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The study examines the reflections of various experts in risk management when asked about uncertainty generated by a health threat and the response to such a threat: what criteria should guide action when potential harm is anticipated, but not known with certainty? The objective of the research is to obtain a holistic perspective of ethical conflicts in risk management, based on experts' accounts within the Spanish territory. A qualitative study was conducted through semi-structured interviews with 27 experts from various fields related to health risk management and its ethical implications, following the grounded theory method. The method includes theory generation through an inductive approach, based on the identified categories. The 27 narratives obtained revealed a variety of fundamental issues grouped into 8 subcategories and subsequently grouped into three main categories. The first category focuses on human vulnerability in health matters. The second category explores the agents and instruments for decision-making that arise from uncertain or traumatic social events. The third category refers to the need for common ethical paradigms for all humanity that implement justice over universal values. A main theory was suggested on the concept of responsibility in a global common good. There is an urgent need to assume this integrative responsibility as an inherent strategy in decision-making. To achieve this, the involved actors must acquire specific humanistic training, conceptualizing fundamental ethical principles, and emphasizing skills more related to humanistic virtues than technical knowledge.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"710-721"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11954723/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142111568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Shared sanitation facilities and risk of respiratory virus transmission in resource-poor settings: A COVID-19 modeling case study.","authors":"Michael A L Hayashi, Sophia M Simon, Kaiyue Zou, Hannah Van Wyk, Mondal Hasan Zahid, Joseph N S Eisenberg, Matthew C Freeman","doi":"10.1111/risa.17633","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17633","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Water supply and sanitation are essential household services frequently shared in resource-poor settings. Shared sanitation can increase the risk of enteric pathogen transmission due to suboptimal cleanliness of facilities used by large numbers of individuals. It also can potentially increase the risk of respiratory disease transmission. As sanitation is an essential need, shared sanitation facilities may act as important respiratory pathogen transmission venues even with strict control measures such as stay-at-home recommendations in place. This analysis explores how behavioral and infrastructural conditions surrounding shared sanitation may individually and interactively influence respiratory pathogen transmission. We developed an individual-based community transmission model using COVID-19 as a motivating example parameterized from empirical literature to explore how transmission in shared latrines interacts with transmission at the community level. We explored mitigation strategies, including infrastructural and behavioral interventions. Our review of empirical literature confirms that shared sanitation venues in resource-poor settings are relatively small with poor ventilation and high use patterns. In these contexts, shared sanitation facilities may act as strong drivers of respiratory disease transmission, especially in areas reliant on shared facilities. Decreasing dependence on shared latrines was most effective at attenuating sanitation-associated transmission. Improvements to latrine ventilation and handwashing behavior were also able to decrease transmission. The type and order of interventions are important in successfully attenuating disease risk, with infrastructural and engineering controls being most effective when administered first, followed by behavioral controls after successful attenuation of sufficient alternate transmission routes. Beyond COVID-19, our modeling framework can be extended to address water, sanitation, and hygiene measures targeted at a range of environmentally mediated infectious diseases.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"638-652"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11954722/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142047141","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A new end-user-oriented and dynamic approach to post-disaster resilience quantification for individual facilities.","authors":"Gemma Cremen","doi":"10.1111/risa.17637","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17637","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Community recovery from a disaster is a complex process, in which the importance of different types of infrastructure functionality can change over time. Most of the myriad of metrics available for measuring disaster resilience do not capture the dynamic importance of functionality explicitly, however. This means that very different recovery trajectories of a given infrastructure can correspond to the same resilience value, regardless of variations in its utility over time. While some efforts have been made to integrate features of time dependency into individual facility resilience quantification, the resulting metrics either capture only a limited set of temporal instances throughout the post-disaster phase or do not offer a way to prioritize time steps in line with variations in the importance of facility functionality. This study proposes a novel, straightforward metric for component-level post-disaster resilience quantification that overcomes the aforementioned limitations. The metric involves a dynamic weighting component that enables stakeholders to place varying emphasis on different temporal points throughout the recovery process. The end-user-centered approach to resilience quantification facilitated by the metric allows for flexible, context-specific interpretations of infrastructure functionality importance that may vary across different communities. The metric is demonstrated through a hypothetical case study of infrastructure facilities with varying degrees of importance across the post-disaster recovery period, which showcases its versatility relative to a previously well-established measurement of component-level resilience. The proposed metric has significant potential for use in stakeholder-driven approaches to decision making on critical infrastructure (as well as other types of built environment) recovery and resilience.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"701-709"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11954729/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142036804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Conceptualizing social risk in relation to climate change and assisted ecosystem adaptation.","authors":"Stewart Lockie, Victoria Graham, Bruce Taylor, Umberto Baresi, Kirsten Maclean, Gillian Paxton, Karen Vella","doi":"10.1111/risa.17635","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17635","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Realizing positive social and environmental outcomes from assisted ecosystem adaptation requires the management of complex, uncertain, and ambiguous risks. Using assisted coral reef adaptation as a case study, this article presents a conceptual framework that defines social impacts as the physical and cognitive consequences for people of planned intervention and social risks as potential impacts transformed into objects of management through assessment and governance. Reflecting on its multiple uses in the literature, we consider \"social risk\" in relation to risks to individuals and communities, risks to First Peoples, risks to businesses or project implementation, possibilities for amplified social vulnerability, and risk perceptions. Although much of this article is devoted to bringing clarity to the different ways in which social risk manifests and to the multiple characters of risk and uncertainty, it is apparent that risk governance itself must be an inherently integrative and social process.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"668-681"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11954728/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142036806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Research on the water-ground multimodal transport emergency scheduling model and decision-making method considering the actual road network inundation situation.","authors":"Yan Song, Baiqing Sun, Yunwu Han, Zhenming Xing","doi":"10.1111/risa.17450","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17450","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>As urbanization continues to accelerate worldwide, urban flooding is becoming increasingly destructive, making it important to improve emergency scheduling capabilities. Compared to other scheduling problems, the urban flood emergency rescue scheduling problem is more complicated. Considering the impact of a disaster on the road network passability, a single type of vehicle cannot complete all rescue tasks. A reasonable combination of multiple vehicle types for cooperative rescue can improve the efficiency of rescue tasks. This study focuses on the urban flood emergency rescue scheduling problem considering the actual road network inundation situation. First, the progress and shortcomings of related research are analyzed. Then, a four-level emergency transportation network based on the collaborative water-ground multimodal transport transshipment mode is established. It is shown that the transshipment points have random locations and quantities according to the actual inundation situation. Subsequently, an interactive model based on hierarchical optimization is constructed considering the travel length, travel time, and waiting time as hierarchical optimization objectives. Next, an improved A* algorithm based on the quantity of specific extension nodes is proposed, and a scheduling scheme decision-making algorithm is proposed based on the improved A* and greedy algorithms. Finally, the proposed decision-making algorithm is applied in a practical example for solving and comparative analysis, and the results show that the improved A* algorithm is faster and more accurate. The results also verify the effectiveness of the scheduling model and decision-making algorithm. Finally, a scheduling scheme with the shortest travel time for the proposed emergency scheduling problem is obtained.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"600-622"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142018442","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Carbon dioxide emissions and environmental risks: Long term and short term.","authors":"Sabri Boubaker, Zhenya Liu, Yuhao Mu, Yaosong Zhan","doi":"10.1111/risa.14281","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.14281","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The world is currently experiencing the environmental challenge of global warming, necessitating careful planning of carbon dioxide ( <math> <semantics><msub><mi>CO</mi> <mn>2</mn></msub> <annotation>${rm{CO}}_2$</annotation></semantics> </math> ) emissions to deal with this problem. This study examines the environmental challenge posed by <math> <semantics><msub><mi>CO</mi> <mn>2</mn></msub> <annotation>${rm{CO}}_2$</annotation></semantics> </math> emissions from both a long and short-term perspective. In the long term, despite efforts made by countries, our change-point detection analysis shows that there has been no structural change in <math> <semantics><msub><mi>CO</mi> <mn>2</mn></msub> <annotation>${rm{CO}}_2$</annotation></semantics> </math> emissions since 1950. Without significant efforts, the carbon budget corresponding to the Paris Agreement's target will be exhausted by 2046. To achieve this target, a significant reduction in global <math> <semantics><msub><mi>CO</mi> <mn>2</mn></msub> <annotation>${rm{CO}}_2$</annotation></semantics> </math> emissions of 3.22% per year is necessary. In the short term, COVID-19 is thought to have relieved pressure on <math> <semantics><msub><mi>CO</mi> <mn>2</mn></msub> <annotation>${rm{CO}}_2$</annotation></semantics> </math> emissions. However, this study shows that <math> <semantics><msub><mi>CO</mi> <mn>2</mn></msub> <annotation>${rm{CO}}_2$</annotation></semantics> </math> emissions quickly returned to normal levels after a brief downturn, and we provide information on the order of <math> <semantics><msub><mi>CO</mi> <mn>2</mn></msub> <annotation>${rm{CO}}_2$</annotation></semantics> </math> emissions recovery for different sectors.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"523-543"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139906369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}