Risk Analysis最新文献_第8页

Enhancing risk and crisis communication with computational methods: A systematic literature review. 用计算方法加强风险和危机沟通：系统文献综述。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2024-12-15 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17690

Madison H Munro, Ross J Gore, Christopher J Lynch, Yvette D Hastings, Ann Marie Reinhold

{"title":"Enhancing risk and crisis communication with computational methods: A systematic literature review.","authors":"Madison H Munro, Ross J Gore, Christopher J Lynch, Yvette D Hastings, Ann Marie Reinhold","doi":"10.1111/risa.17690","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17690","url":null,"abstract":"Recent developments in risk and crisis communication (RCC) research combine social science theory and data science tools to construct effective risk messages efficiently. However, current systematic literature reviews (SLRs) on RCC primarily focus on computationally assessing message efficacy as opposed to message efficiency. We conduct an SLR to highlight any current computational methods that improve message construction efficacy and efficiency. We found that most RCC research focuses on using theoretical frameworks and computational methods to analyze or classify message elements that improve efficacy. For improving message efficiency, computational and manual methods are only used in message classification. Specifying the computational methods used in message construction is sparse. We recommend that future RCC research apply computational methods toward improving efficacy and efficiency in message construction. By improving message construction efficacy and efficiency, RCC messaging would quickly warn and better inform affected communities impacted by current hazards. Such messaging has the potential to save as many lives as possible.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"1683-1697"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12396938/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142829559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A community resilience index for place-based actionable metrics. 基于地点的可操作度量的社区弹性指数。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2024-12-06 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17684

Margot Habets, Susan L Cutter

{"title":"A community resilience index for place-based actionable metrics.","authors":"Margot Habets, Susan L Cutter","doi":"10.1111/risa.17684","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17684","url":null,"abstract":"Community resilience measurement to natural hazards is becoming increasingly relevant due to the growth of federal programs and local and state resilience offices in the United States. This study introduces a methodology to co-produce an actionable resilience metric to measure locally relevant and modifiable indicators of community resilience for the state of South Carolina. The \"actionable\" metrics, based on the Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities (BRIC) index, are calculated at the county and tract scale and then compared to \"conventional\" versions of BRIC. Actionable BRICs perform better in reliability testing than conventional BRICs. Correlations across the two scales of BRIC construction show a stronger relationship between the actionable BRICs than conventional, though all are highly correlated. When mapped, actionable BRIC shows a shifted region of low resilience in the state when compared to conventional BRIC, suggesting that actionable and conventional BRICs are distinct. Scale differences show dissimilar drivers of resilience, with county-level resilience driven by community, social, and environmental resilience and tract-level resilience driven by social and institutional resilience. Actionable tract-level BRIC appears to be the best representation of modifiable resilience for South Carolina, but it comes with trade-offs, including calculation complexity and changing geographies over time. Regardless of scale, the resulting actionable indices offer a useful tracking mechanism for the state resilience office and highlight the importance of integrating top-down and bottom-up resilience perspectives to consider local drivers of resilience. The resulting methodology can be replicated in other states and localities to produce actionable and locally relevant resilience metrics.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"1648-1661"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12396936/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142792371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Posting environmental risk: Communicating with numerical and nonnumerical messaging across information modalities. 发布环境风险：跨信息模式使用数字和非数字消息传递进行通信。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-05 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17709

Megan L P Norman, Jiaqi Agnes Bao, Triwik Kurniasari, Chris Skurka

{"title":"Posting environmental risk: Communicating with numerical and nonnumerical messaging across information modalities.","authors":"Megan L P Norman, Jiaqi Agnes Bao, Triwik Kurniasari, Chris Skurka","doi":"10.1111/risa.17709","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17709","url":null,"abstract":"Risk communicators frequently engage members of the public through social media; therefore, it is important to understand how to effectively communicate risks about environmental and health issues. This experiment with U.S. adults (N = 737) explored how message features in risk-focused social media posts-namely, message modality (text-only posts or text with the inclusion of photographs or data presentations) and risk representation (numerical risk details or nonnumerical summaries of risk information)-influence risk perceptions, perceived message informativeness, and intentions to share the content. To do so, we drew from research on visual communication and research on numerical and nonnumerical representations of risk. We assessed the robustness of these effects across three environmental risk domains (asthma, heat waves, and vector-borne diseases). We found that compared to text-only messages, text with a data presentation (i.e., graph or table) led to enhanced risk perceptions, perceptions of informativeness, and sharing intentions. Relative to nonnumerical messages, numerical messages generated greater perceived risk, were rated as more informative, and elicited greater sharing intentions. Additionally, the effects of risk representation depended on participants' numeracy level, such that numerical messages (vs. nonnumerical) elicited greater sharing intentions and perceived informativeness among high-numeracy individuals but had no such effects for low-numeracy individuals. We also found some evidence that message effects on perceived informativeness differed based on risk topic. Our results suggest that communicators can consider designing social media risk messages with numerical details and data visualizations.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"1971-1983"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143256569","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

"The more I think about it, the less I like it": Effects of elaboration, narrative transportation, and freedom threat on the effectiveness of HPV vaccination advocacy messages. “我越想它，我越不喜欢它”：阐述，叙事运输和自由威胁对HPV疫苗接种宣传信息有效性的影响。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-18 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17688

Roger Gans

{"title":"\"The more I think about it, the less I like it\": Effects of elaboration, narrative transportation, and freedom threat on the effectiveness of HPV vaccination advocacy messages.","authors":"Roger Gans","doi":"10.1111/risa.17688","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17688","url":null,"abstract":"Approximately 80 million US adults-one in four-are infected with the human papillomavirus (HPV), which causes cancers of the cervix in women, cancers of the anus, penis, and throat in men, and genital warts in both sexes. Although HPV vaccinations are safe, effective, easily affordable, and readily available, a substantial percentage of parents resist recommendations to vaccinate their children against HPV. The current study tests the effects of different vaccination advocacy message strategies on attitudes toward HPV vaccination. Study participants (N = 963) were randomly assigned to one of four message conditions (a narrative story, an informational fact sheet, an appeal from an expert spokesperson, or an identical appeal from a nonexpert spokesperson) and assessed for change in attitude toward HPV vaccination along with levels of elaboration, narrative transportation, and freedom threat caused by the messages. Analyses showed that the messages' effects on attitude change were mediated by transportation and moderated by freedom threat. With the informative, expert, and nonexpert messages, increased message engagement produced increased freedom threat. With the narrative message, increased message engagement produced reduced levels of freedom threat. For risk communicators and planners of health interventions, the results suggest benefits for using a nonexpert advocacy message when levels of message engagement are expected to be low and using a story-based narrative advocacy message when levels of message engagement are expected to be high.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"1861-1878"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143010741","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Controlling mission hazards through integrated abort and spare support optimization. 通过综合中止和备用支援优化控制任务危险。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-04 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17696

Li Yang, Fanping Wei, Xiaobing Ma, Qingan Qiu

{"title":"Controlling mission hazards through integrated abort and spare support optimization.","authors":"Li Yang, Fanping Wei, Xiaobing Ma, Qingan Qiu","doi":"10.1111/risa.17696","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17696","url":null,"abstract":"This study explores the risk management challenges associated with safety-critical systems required to execute specific missions. The working component experiences degradation governed by a continuous-time discrete-state Markov chain, whose failure leads to an immediate system breakdown and safety losses. To enhance system survivability, a limited number of identical spares are available for online replacement throughout the mission. At the same time, the mission abort action arises promptly upon encountering excessive safety hazards. To strike an optimal balance between mission completion and system survivability, we delve into the adaptive scheduling of component replacements and mission termination decisions. The joint decision problem of interest constitutes a finite-time Markov decision process with resource limitation, under which we analyze a series of structural properties related to spare availability and component conditions. In particular, we establish structured control-limit policies for both spare replacement and mission termination decisions. For comparison purposes, we evaluate the performance of various heuristic policies analytically. Numerical experiments conducted on the driver system of radar equipment validate the superior model performance in enhancing operational performance while simultaneously mitigating hazard risks.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"1751-1765"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142927546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Managing and mitigating future public health risks: Planetary boundaries, global catastrophic risk, and inclusive wealth. 管理和减轻未来公共卫生风险：地球边界、全球灾难性风险和包容性财富。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-18 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17703

Eoin McLaughlin, Matthias Beck

{"title":"Managing and mitigating future public health risks: Planetary boundaries, global catastrophic risk, and inclusive wealth.","authors":"Eoin McLaughlin, Matthias Beck","doi":"10.1111/risa.17703","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17703","url":null,"abstract":"There are two separate conceptualizations for assessing existential risks: Planetary Boundaries (PBs) and global catastrophic risks (GCRs). While these concepts are similar in principle, their underpinning literatures tend not to engage with each other. Research related to these concepts has tended to be siloed in terms of the study of specific threats and also in terms of how these are assumed to materialize; PBs attribute global catastrophes to slow-moving and potentially irreversible global changes, while GCRs focuses on cataclysmic short-term events. We argue that there is a need for a more unified approach to managing global long-term risks, which recognizes the complex and confounded nature of the interactions between PBs and GCRs. We highlight where the PB and GCR concepts overlap and outline these complexities using an example of public health, namely, pandemics and food insecurity. We also present an existing indicator that we argue can be used for monitoring and managing risk. We argue for greater emphasis on national and global ''inclusive wealth'' as a way to measure economic activity and thus to monitor and mitigate the unintended consequences of economic activity. In sum, we call for a holistic approach to stewardship aimed at preserving the integrity of natural capital in the face of a broad range of global risks and their respective regional or global manifestations.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"1607-1631"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12396944/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143010880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Key attributes of health and environmental risk decision-making: A scoping review. 健康和环境风险决策的关键属性：范围审查。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-02 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17715

Yadvinder Bhuller, Xaand Bancroft, Raywat Deonandan, Agnes Grudniewicz, Anne Wiles, Daniel Krewski

{"title":"Key attributes of health and environmental risk decision-making: A scoping review.","authors":"Yadvinder Bhuller, Xaand Bancroft, Raywat Deonandan, Agnes Grudniewicz, Anne Wiles, Daniel Krewski","doi":"10.1111/risa.17715","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17715","url":null,"abstract":"Government agencies, international institutions, and independent experts have published approaches for the assessment and management of health and environmental risks. This includes evidence-based strategies and publications supporting risk decision-making frameworks reflecting contemporary practices, the overarching context, and governance structures for addressing known and emerging risk issues. This scoping review surveys the literature, over the last five decades, to identify key attributes of health and environmental risk decision-making and how these inherent characteristics are related to the overarching regulatory decision-making context. The findings provide insights on how these publications accounted for the circumstances and triggers at that time. This includes incorporating factors reflecting advances in science and technology, a better understanding of underlying values (e.g., societal), and an expansion in the scope and complexity required for conducting different evaluations relevant to health and environmental risks. Consequently, the evolution from linear to more expanded and holistic decision-making frameworks incorporates foundational elements, such as the well-established steps for assessing risks, while adding aspects reflecting transformative changes and paradigm shifts (e.g., the use of non-animal testing strategies for evaluating human safety). Our analysis also resulted in the generation of a consolidated listing of ten attributes: trigger/issue, regulatory context, regulatory factors, core values, risk decision-making principles, cross-cutting attributes, design (scope and steps), structure, decision-making pathway, and evidence-knowledge requirements for risk decision-making. A better understanding of this evolution in risk decision-making and the listing of key attributes will be used in future work aimed at developing considerations for next generation decision-making approaches for health and environmental risks.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"1926-1939"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12396943/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143080968","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The future is closer than you imagine: The influence of psychological distance on people's risk perception and intentions for proenvironmental behavior of pesticides. 未来比你想象的更近：心理距离对人们农药亲环境行为风险认知和意愿的影响

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2024-12-29 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17689

Morten Thomsen

引用次数: 0

Decision-making under flood predictions: A risk perception study of coastal real estate. 洪水预测下的决策：沿海房地产风险感知研究。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-18 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17706

Avidesh Seenath, Scott Mark Romeo Mahadeo, Matthew Blackett

{"title":"Decision-making under flood predictions: A risk perception study of coastal real estate.","authors":"Avidesh Seenath, Scott Mark Romeo Mahadeo, Matthew Blackett","doi":"10.1111/risa.17706","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17706","url":null,"abstract":"Flood models, while representing our best knowledge of a natural phenomenon, are continually evolving. Their predictions, albeit undeniably important for flood risk management, contain considerable uncertainties related to model structure, parameterization, and input data. With multiple sources of flood predictions becoming increasingly available through online flood maps, the uncertainties in these predictions present considerable risks related to property devaluation. Such risks stem from real estate decisions, measured by location preferences and willingness-to-pay to buy and rent properties, based on access to various sources of flood predictions. Here, we evaluate the influence of coastal flood predictions on real estate decision-making in the United Kingdom by adopting an interdisciplinary approach, involving flood modeling, novel experimental willingness-to-pay real estate surveys of UK residents in response to flood predictions, statistical modeling, and geospatial analysis. Our main findings show that access to multiple sources of flood predictions dominates real estate decisions relative to preferences for location aesthetics, reflecting a shift in demand toward risk averse locations. We also find that people do not consider flood prediction uncertainty in their real estate decisions, possibly due to an inability to perceive such uncertainty. These results are robust under a repeated experimental survey using an open access long-term flood risk map. We, therefore, recommend getting flood models \"right\" but recognize that this is a contentious issue because it implies having an error-free model, which is practically impossible. Hence, to reduce real estate risks, we advocate for a greater emphasis on effectively communicating flood model predictions and their uncertainties to non-experts.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"1899-1925"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12396945/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143010869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The use of public spatial databases in risk analysis: A US-oriented tutorial. 公共空间数据库在风险分析中的应用：面向美国的教程。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-18 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17705

Michael R Greenberg, Dona Schneider, Louis Anthony Cox

{"title":"The use of public spatial databases in risk analysis: A US-oriented tutorial.","authors":"Michael R Greenberg, Dona Schneider, Louis Anthony Cox","doi":"10.1111/risa.17705","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17705","url":null,"abstract":"This tutorial focuses on opportunities and challenges associated with using six large, publicly accessible spatial databases published during the last decade by US federal agencies. These databases provide opportunities for researchers to risk-inform policy by comparing community asset, demographic, economic, and social data, along with anthropogenic and natural hazard data at multiple geographic scales. The opportunities for data analysis come with challenges, including data accuracy, variations in the shape and size of data cells, spatial autocorrelation, and other issues endemic to spatial datasets. If ignored, these issues can lead to misleading results. This article briefly reviews the six databases and how agencies use them. It then focuses on the data and its limitations. Examples are provided, as are summaries of the debates surrounding these databases, followed by paths forward for improving their use. We end with a checklist that users should consider when they access any of the six spatial databases or others. We believe that these new resources can be effectively used with appropriate caution to answer user-generated questions about hazards and risks-questions that are important to both community groups and government decision-makers.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"1632-1647"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12396940/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143010852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0