Risk Analysis最新文献_第8页

Modeling antimicrobial fate in the circular food system. 模拟循环食品系统中的抗菌命运。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70044

Weixin Huang, Marlous Focker, H J van der Fels-Klerx

引用次数: 0

Dynamics of risk perception altered by cognitive hazard typification: A case of naturalness and immediacy of effect in Japan. 由认知危险分类改变的风险感知动态：日本自然和直接影响的一个案例。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-21 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70036

Kenta Mitsushita, Shin Murakoshi

{"title":"Dynamics of risk perception altered by cognitive hazard typification: A case of naturalness and immediacy of effect in Japan.","authors":"Kenta Mitsushita, Shin Murakoshi","doi":"10.1111/risa.70036","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70036","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigated how the structure of risk perception differs according to the type determined by perceived hazard properties (cognitive hazard type) by applying three-mode principal component analysis (3MPCA). A total of 295 respondents completed a questionnaire consisting of risk characteristics and risk perception scales for 12 natural, technology, and social activity hazards, differentiated by naturalness and immediacy of effects. Three components were extracted by 3MPCA in scale (\"dread,\" \"passive,\" and \"unknown\") and three in target hazards (\"slow-artificial hazard,\" \"fast-artificial hazard,\" and \"natural hazard\"), which were interpreted as three cognitive hazard types. Six components were extracted and interpreted using a core array. Multiple regression analysis of risk perception with individual components revealed that the influence of risk characteristics judgment differed according to cognitive hazard type. \"Dread\" affected all hazard types, whereas \"passive\" affected \"fast-artificial hazard\" and \"natural hazard.\" Furthermore, for \"natural hazard,\" \"passive\" had negative and positive effects on personal risk assessment and general assessment, respectively. These results suggest the necessity of considering cognitive hazard typification to investigate the structure of risk perception phenomena and the usefulness of applying 3MPCA to the psychometric paradigm.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2580-2596"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12474525/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143982028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A comprehensive CREAM method for human reliability analysis of armored vehicle crews based on cognitive performance and operational environment. 基于认知性能和作战环境的装甲车辆乘员人员可靠性综合分析方法。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-15 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70050

Qingyang Huang, Yuning Wei, Jingyuan Zhang, Xiucheng Xu, Xiaoping Jin

{"title":"A comprehensive CREAM method for human reliability analysis of armored vehicle crews based on cognitive performance and operational environment.","authors":"Qingyang Huang, Yuning Wei, Jingyuan Zhang, Xiucheng Xu, Xiaoping Jin","doi":"10.1111/risa.70050","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70050","url":null,"abstract":"Given that human error is the primary factor causing combat task failures in armored vehicles, human reliability analysis (HRA) is very significant in enhancing human reliability and work efficiency for crews. To evaluate human reliability quantitatively and accurately, this study proposes a comprehensive cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM). First, the weighting factors of different common performance conditions (CPCs) under uncertain conditions are derived by integrating the modified decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory-based analytic network process with linguistic D numbers. Second, considering the joint effects of cognitive performance and operational environment on crew behaviors, a cognitive performance adjustment coefficient is introduced to improve the conventional CREAM method. Third, group best-worst method and best-worst method based on nonlinear goal programming are used to determine the weighting factors of human intrinsic factors (HIFs). The results of the cross-platform combat task simulation show that the cumulative human error probability (HEP) of crews by this method is estimated as 26%, while the average HEP of the other HRA methods is approximately 24%. The HEP value has improved by 7% on average. The failure in judgment is the most critical contributor to human errors. Finally, according to the sensitivity analysis, the HEPs in different task processes with various CPCs and HIFs have significant differences (p < 0.01). The effect of the change in CPCs on the quantitative assessment of HEPs remains much steadier than that of the HIFs. The proposed method provides an effective method for the quantitative evaluation of human failure probabilities for crews in combat missions, which can decrease the security risk.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2736-2758"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144080068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Medical decision-making under risk and uncertainty: Anesthetists' decision to proceed with surgery. 风险和不确定性下的医疗决策：麻醉师进行手术的决定。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70027

Zijing Yang, Yaniv Hanoch, Zvi Safra, Tigran Melkonyan, Olivera Potparic, James Palmer

{"title":"Medical decision-making under risk and uncertainty: Anesthetists' decision to proceed with surgery.","authors":"Zijing Yang, Yaniv Hanoch, Zvi Safra, Tigran Melkonyan, Olivera Potparic, James Palmer","doi":"10.1111/risa.70027","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70027","url":null,"abstract":"There is a paucity of work examining anesthetists' willingness to proceed as attending anesthetists (hereafter, WTP) in response to different risky medical conditions. Earlier studies offer only a partial and indirect explanation as to why variations in WTP exist. We evaluated whether psychological factors of risk-taking tendencies, attitudes toward uncertainty, sense of regret, and demographic variables, particularly experience and gender, might clarify the disparities in an anesthetist's WTP. Anesthetists from two National Health Service Trusts in England (i.e., hospitals) viewed, in random order, three different realistic scenarios (representing low-, medium-, and high-risk cases) and were asked to indicate how likely they were to agree to proceed as the attending anesthetist. They also answered questions evaluating their risk-taking tendencies, comfort with uncertainty, and tendency to experience regret. Anesthetists varied in their WTP. Importantly, our data revealed that a sense of uncertainty and regret, but not a risk attitude, could help explain these variations. Female anesthetists were less likely to agree to proceed as attending anesthetists regardless of the level of risk or individual differences, but we found no relationship between levels of experience and WTP. Examining anesthetists' WTP in isolation provides an important but only partial picture. Gaining a better understanding of the factors that drive decision-making is vital for improving both training and practice. In particular, given the high proportion of women in anesthesia, the gender difference found in this study has important implications for anesthetic training and practice.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2771-2789"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12474527/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144120811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-21 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70039

Yanmengqian Zhou, Michelle L Acevedo Callejas, Erina L Farrell

{"title":"Addressing related but competing risks: Effectiveness of an antibiotic stewardship intervention during COVID-19.","authors":"Yanmengqian Zhou, Michelle L Acevedo Callejas, Erina L Farrell","doi":"10.1111/risa.70039","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70039","url":null,"abstract":"Previous research on risk information behaviors has primarily focused on responses to a single target risk, without considering how related risks might influence information behaviors regarding the target risk. Guided by the Risk Information Seeking and Processing (RISP) model and drawing on theory and research taking a social context approach to risk communication, we developed a video-based intervention for promoting favorable antibiotic risk information behaviors that targets key predictors-including perceived risk, information insufficiency, and perceived information gathering capacity (PIGC)-theorized in RISP and addresses COVID-19 as a related risk factor. Experimentally testing the effectiveness of this video against a previously developed video that did not reference COVID-19 and a control group with no video exposure, we found that both videos increased perceived risk from antibiotics and PIGC. Relative to the original video, the extended, COVID-contextualized video led to greater knowledge about the ineffectiveness and harm of taking antibiotics for COVID-19. Results from structural equation modeling showed that knowledge about the ineffectiveness directly decreased information-avoidance intention. Knowledge about the harm, on the other hand, indirectly increased information seeking and reduced avoidance intention by heightening perceived risk, which led to negative affect and, in turn, elevated information insufficiency. In addition, information-seeking intention increased with greater PIGC. These relationships further varied by fear of COVID-19, with antibiotic risk information behaviors among high-fear individuals being more strongly influenced by COVID-related judgments than those with low fear. Implications of the findings for message designs in multirisk situations are discussed.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2597-2609"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144010094","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Why ignore expiry dates on cosmetics? A qualitative study of perceived risk and its implications for cosmetics producers and regulators. 为什么忽略化妆品的有效期？感知风险的定性研究及其对化妆品生产商和监管机构的影响。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-21 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70040

Yujiao Wang, Gary Davies, James Derbyshire, Farid Ullah

{"title":"Why ignore expiry dates on cosmetics? A qualitative study of perceived risk and its implications for cosmetics producers and regulators.","authors":"Yujiao Wang, Gary Davies, James Derbyshire, Farid Ullah","doi":"10.1111/risa.70040","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70040","url":null,"abstract":"Consumers often use cosmetics long after their expiry date, despite the health risk. This paper aims to understand why and to suggest policy changes that can promote safer practices in cosmetics use. This is the first study to investigate risk perception in relation to expired cosmetics. Thirty-three semistructured interviews with both cosmetics users and employees of cosmetics companies were conducted in the United Kingdom and China. Perceived risk theory was found to be a useful analytical lens. Eight risk factors emerged from the data, including two not previously identified. Combinations of risk were also found to be valuable in explaining consumer attitudes to cosmetic expiry dates, which suggests that perceived risk factors interact with each other to create an emergent perception of risk, requiring an integrated understanding. While physical, performance and self-brand connection risk can promote adherence to an expiry date, other risk factors such as financial and social risk can override such concerns, leading to the expiry date being ignored. Implications for suppliers' and regulators' policies and risk-communication strategies are identified that may help reduce the risks being taken by cosmetics users.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2610-2620"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12474526/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144043883","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Pilot flying versus pilot monitoring: The effect of role assignment on pilots' perceived risk in flight simulation experiment. 飞行员飞行与飞行员监控：角色分配对飞行模拟实验中飞行员感知风险的影响。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70048

Shan Gao, Lei Wang, Nan Zhang, Yu Bai, Yu Tian, Shanguang Chen, Yijing Zhang, Hang Zhou

{"title":"Pilot flying versus pilot monitoring: The effect of role assignment on pilots' perceived risk in flight simulation experiment.","authors":"Shan Gao, Lei Wang, Nan Zhang, Yu Bai, Yu Tian, Shanguang Chen, Yijing Zhang, Hang Zhou","doi":"10.1111/risa.70048","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70048","url":null,"abstract":"Humans' risk perception has been recognized as a significant factor affecting behavior safety. In the aviation domain, the two different roles of crews in the cockpit-pilot flying (PF) versus pilot monitoring (PM)-are responsible for different tasks. However, little is known about how role assignment shapes pilots' perceived risk. We designed a flight-simulation experiment where 57 professional pilots completed two counterbalanced approaches under different role assignments with the assistance of a flight instructor in a full flight simulator. Their perceived risks were measured by psychophysiological responses and compared between the two different cockpit roles. Results indicate that participants exhibited stronger psychophysiological responses (e.g., higher subjective ratings, skin conductance responses, heart rates, and inter-beat intervals) when they served as PF than PM. Particularly, they reported higher scores in affect, susceptibility, and severity dimensions as PF than PM. The asymmetrically psychophysiological responses between the two varying roles in the cockpit emphasize the importance of controllability in shaping the pilot's perceived risk. Theoretically, our findings contribute to the existing literature on pilots' perceived risk. Practically, we pave the way for engaging specific interventions and training for improving crew performance and flight safety.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2759-2770"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144080070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assessing the dependence between extreme rainfall and extreme insurance claims: A bivariate peak over threshold method. 评估极端降雨和极端保险索赔之间的相关性：一种双变量峰值超过阈值方法。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-16 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70033

Yue Shi

{"title":"Assessing the dependence between extreme rainfall and extreme insurance claims: A bivariate peak over threshold method.","authors":"Yue Shi","doi":"10.1111/risa.70033","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70033","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. For insurance companies, it is essential to identify and quantify extreme climate risk. They must set aside enough capital reserve to bear the costs of extreme events, otherwise, they can be put in a danger of facing bankruptcy. In this article, I employ the state-of-the-art bivariate peak over threshold method to study the dependence between extreme rain events and extreme insurance claims. I utilize a novel insurance data set on home insurance claims related to rainfall-induced damage in Norway and select two large Norwegian municipalities to investigate the impact of heavy rain on large claim numbers. Based on the model estimates and tail dependence measures, I find evidence that extremely high numbers of insurance claims have the strongest dependence with rainfall intensity and daily rain amounts. I also identify the region-specific difference in rainfall variables as a key indicator of home insurance risk. The findings offer insights into the complex dynamics between extreme rainfall and extreme claim numbers in home insurance. Contributing to the long-term sustainability of the insurance industry, the proposed method facilitates the development of tailor-made pricing models and robust capital reserve management in the face of changing climate.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2504-2520"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143996230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Maximizing the cost-effectiveness of relief prepositioning inventory and funding assurance strategy by integrating stockpiles, supply contract, and insurance. 通过整合库存、供应合同和保险，最大限度地提高救灾预置库存和资金保证策略的成本效益。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-05 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70056

Mengzhe Zhou, Tongxin Liu, Xihui Wang, Jianfang Shao

{"title":"Maximizing the cost-effectiveness of relief prepositioning inventory and funding assurance strategy by integrating stockpiles, supply contract, and insurance.","authors":"Mengzhe Zhou, Tongxin Liu, Xihui Wang, Jianfang Shao","doi":"10.1111/risa.70056","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70056","url":null,"abstract":"Relief organizations face numerous challenges, such as funding shortfalls, delays in relief operations, and uncertain demand. A single prepositioning inventory strategy (e.g., stockpiles or supply contract) does not provide an effective solution to these challenges. Therefore, we propose a prepositioning inventory and funding assurance strategy that combines stockpiles, supply contracts with suppliers, and insurance agreements for relief organizations. A deterministic model for the proposed strategy is established along with the objective of maximizing cost-effectiveness. We establish two benchmark models: one combining stockpiles with supply contract and the other combining stockpiles with catastrophe insurance. Then, we compare the relief performance of maximizing cost-effectiveness with minimizing economic costs and minimizing social costs in the proposed strategy. Two-stage robust optimization models are established to address disaster uncertainties. The column-and-constraint generation algorithm is designed to solve robust models, and the Charnes-Cooper transform method is used to transform the fractional objective to an integrated objective. The results of two case studies in Dali and Zhaotong, China, show that the proposed strategy with maximizing cost-effectiveness leads to the acquisition of a moderate amount of insurance with options purchased in quantities that are larger than the stockpiles. Compared with the two benchmark strategies, the proposed strategy can improve cost-effectiveness and achieve cost reduction, especially in years with large disasters. In addition, the objectives of minimizing economic costs and social costs emphasize overly conservative prepositioning inventory and funding assurance strategies, while the optimization results of maximizing cost-effectiveness show robustness when facing disasters with various severities.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2838-2864"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144235040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Is a good reputation a dangerous thing? A multimethod assessment of regulator culture and the implications for risk regulation. 好名声是件危险的事吗？监管机构文化的多方法评估及其对风险监管的影响。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-24 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70043

Sharon Clarke, Lina Siegl, David Holman

{"title":"Is a good reputation a dangerous thing? A multimethod assessment of regulator culture and the implications for risk regulation.","authors":"Sharon Clarke, Lina Siegl, David Holman","doi":"10.1111/risa.70043","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70043","url":null,"abstract":"Regulator culture has a significant influence on dutyholder safety in high-risk industries, but there is currently limited research that has explored its nature and implications for effective risk regulation. Building on existing cultural theory and literature on reputational risk, we aim to address this hiatus by exploring regulator culture through an assessment of attitudes, beliefs, and norms that are shared within a UK risk regulator, and represent its underlying cultural values. We utilized an abductive case study approach, which involved multiple qualitative methodologies (comprising analysis of 68 documents, 19 interviews, nine focus groups, and seven observations), engaging both internal and external stakeholders. Based on triangulation, we developed a model and rich description of regulator culture, and addressed the following questions: What is a regulator culture for safety? What cultural values do risk regulators need for effective oversight of a high-risk industry? Our model encapsulates the core values of regulator culture (process orientation, professionalism, and independence) that together support the regulator's reputation, which is central to its cultural identity. Our findings extend risk theory and research by advancing knowledge of the mechanisms through which culture impacts regulatory practice. We highlight how the drive to protect reputation has benefits, but also a potential \"dark side.\" Latterly, we emphasize the dynamic and paradoxical nature of cultural values, and how this affects the regulator's ability to continually improve and strengthen its culture over time, as well as the implications for effective regulatory oversight.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2650-2666"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12474531/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144009407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0