Risk Analysis最新文献_第8页

A data-driven and cost-oriented FMEA-MCDM approach to risk assessment and ranking in a fuzzy environment: A hydraulic pump factory case study. 模糊环境下风险评估和排序的数据驱动和成本导向 FMEA-MCDM 方法：液压泵厂案例研究。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-11-01 Epub Date: 2024-05-31 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14338

Hossein Shakibaei, Saba Seifi, Jun Zhuang

{"title":"A data-driven and cost-oriented FMEA-MCDM approach to risk assessment and ranking in a fuzzy environment: A hydraulic pump factory case study.","authors":"Hossein Shakibaei, Saba Seifi, Jun Zhuang","doi":"10.1111/risa.14338","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.14338","url":null,"abstract":"In today's highly competitive business environment, firms strive to maximize profitability by minimizing or eliminating disruptions and failures to maintain a competitive edge. This study focuses on evaluating risks in a hydraulic pump factory as a means to achieve sustainable growth. To accomplish this, a team of experts was formed to identify potential errors, utilizing a combination of risk priority number criteria weighted by Fuzzy Shannon's entropy and a fusion of multi-criteria decision-making and failure mode and effects analysis for evaluating and ranking failures. Moreover, the study emphasizes the importance of considering the interaction among risk assessment indicators, the inclusion of cost of failure, and modeling under fuzzy uncertainty circumstances, as they have a notable impact on the final ranking of failures to be processed for risk mitigation action planning. This research brings a new dimension to enhance the overall effectiveness of risk assessment by aggregation, as evidenced by a novel use of data classification in machine learning and correlation in statistics. The findings indicate that the aggregated ranking data series is best matched and most influenced by the weighted aggregated sum product assessment method, with the highest rate of recall and precision accomplished.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2629-2648"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141180598","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Cultural theory and political philosophy: Why cognitive biases toward ambiguous risk explain both beliefs about nature's resilience and political preferences regarding the organization of society. 文化理论与政治哲学：为什么对模糊风险的认知偏差既能解释关于自然复原力的信念，也能解释关于社会组织的政治偏好。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-10-29 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17668

Marc D Davidson

{"title":"Cultural theory and political philosophy: Why cognitive biases toward ambiguous risk explain both beliefs about nature's resilience and political preferences regarding the organization of society.","authors":"Marc D Davidson","doi":"10.1111/risa.17668","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17668","url":null,"abstract":"Many studies have observed a correlation between beliefs regarding nature's resilience and (political) preferences regarding the organization of society. Liberal-egalitarians, for example, generally believe nature to be much more fragile than libertarians, who believe nature to be much more resilient. Cultural theory explains this correlation by the idea that people are only able to see those risks that fit their preferred organization of society. This article offers an alternative, second explanation for the observed correlation: Both beliefs regarding nature's resilience and political preferences can be explained by the same cognitive biases toward ambiguous risk, that is, dispositions determining our expectations regarding the possible state of affairs resulting from our acts and their probabilities. This has consequences for political philosophy and the psychology of risk. In particular, there is a knowledge gap in psychology regarding the cognitive biases underlying the belief that despite ambiguity, experts can determine safe limits for human impacts on the environment.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142547113","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Emergency medical supply planning considering prepositioning and dynamic in-kind donation management in healthcare coalitions. 考虑到医疗联盟中的预置和动态实物捐赠管理的紧急医疗供应规划。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17667

Qingyi Wang, Renshan Zhang, Li Luo

引用次数: 0

Distributional justice and climate risk assessment: An analysis of disparities within direct and indirect risk. 分配公正与气候风险评估：对直接和间接风险差异的分析。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17664

M J Anderson, L Conrow, M Hobbs, R Paulik, P Blackett, T Logan

{"title":"Distributional justice and climate risk assessment: An analysis of disparities within direct and indirect risk.","authors":"M J Anderson, L Conrow, M Hobbs, R Paulik, P Blackett, T Logan","doi":"10.1111/risa.17664","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17664","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change and natural hazard risk assessments often overlook indirect impacts, leading to a limited understanding of the full extent of risk and the disparities in its distribution across populations. This study investigates distributional justice in natural hazard impacts, exploring its critical implications for environmental justice, equity, and resilience in adaptation planning. We employ high-resolution spatial risk assessment and origin-destination routing to analyze coastal flooding and sea-level rise scenarios in Aotearoa New Zealand. This approach allows the assessment of both direct impacts (property exposure) and indirect impacts (physical isolation from key amenities) on residents. Indirect impacts, such as isolation and reduced access to resources, have significant adverse effects on well-being, social cohesion, and community resilience. Including indirect impacts in risk assessments dramatically increases the overall population burden, while revealing complex effects on existing inequalities. Our analysis reveals that including indirect impacts increases the overall population burden, but the effect on inequalities varies. These inequalities can be exacerbated or attenuated depending on scale and location, underscoring the need for decision-makers to identify these nuanced distributions and apply context-specific frameworks when determining equitable outcomes. Our findings uncover a substantial number of previously invisible at-risk residents-from 61,000 to 217,000 nationally in a present-day event-and expose a shift in impact distribution toward underserved communities. As indirect risks exacerbate disparities and impede climate adaptation efforts, adopting an inclusive approach that accounts for both direct and indirect risks and their [un]equal distribution is imperative for effective and equitable decision-making.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142473783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Frontier AI developers need an internal audit function. 前沿人工智能开发者需要内部审计职能。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17665

Jonas Schuett

{"title":"Frontier AI developers need an internal audit function.","authors":"Jonas Schuett","doi":"10.1111/risa.17665","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17665","url":null,"abstract":"This article argues that frontier artificial intelligence (AI) developers need an internal audit function. First, it describes the role of internal audit in corporate governance: internal audit evaluates the adequacy and effectiveness of a company's risk management, control, and governance processes. It is organizationally independent from senior management and reports directly to the board of directors, typically its audit committee. In the Institute of Internal Auditors' Three Lines Model, internal audit serves as the third line and is responsible for providing assurance to the board, whereas the combined assurance framework highlights the need to coordinate the activities of internal and external assurance providers. Next, the article provides an overview of key governance challenges in frontier AI development: Dangerous capabilities can arise unpredictably and undetected; it is difficult to prevent a deployed model from causing harm; frontier models can proliferate rapidly; it is inherently difficult to assess frontier AI risks; and frontier AI developers do not seem to follow best practices in risk governance. Finally, the article discusses how an internal audit function could address some of these challenges: Internal audit could identify ineffective risk management practices; it could ensure that the board of directors has a more accurate understanding of the current level of risk and the adequacy of the developer's risk management practices; and it could serve as a contact point for whistleblowers. But frontier AI developers should also be aware of key limitations: Internal audit adds friction; it can be captured by senior management; and the benefits depend on the ability of individuals to identify ineffective practices. In light of rapid progress in AI research and development, frontier AI developers need to strengthen their risk governance. Instead of reinventing the wheel, they should follow existing best practices. Although this might not be sufficient, they should not skip this obvious first step.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142473784","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An adaptation and validation of disaster resilience scale based on community engagement theory. 基于社区参与理论的抗灾能力量表的调整和验证。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17666

Tuba Gokmenoglu, Elif Dasci Sonmez

{"title":"An adaptation and validation of disaster resilience scale based on community engagement theory.","authors":"Tuba Gokmenoglu, Elif Dasci Sonmez","doi":"10.1111/risa.17666","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17666","url":null,"abstract":"This study aimed to adapt and validate the Disaster Resilience Scale, originally developed by Becker et al. and revised by Paton et al., for assessing disaster resilience within the Turkish school community with a focus on Community Engagement Theory. This theory emphasizes the role of community involvement in disaster resilience at various levels, including the individual, community, and societal/institutional. The study was conducted in two phases. In the first phase, data from 428 teachers were analyzed to assess the validity and reliability of the scale's Turkish version and its alignment with dimensions. In the second phase, data from 1,422 teachers were used to further verify the reliability of using the Generalizability Theory test, and confirm validity through confirmatory factor analysis. The results confirmed that the Turkish version of the scale, with its 12 factors and 52 items was valid and reliable. Cronbach's Alpha coefficients for the dimensions ranged from 0.80 to 0.91, indicating high reliability. The findings highlight the practical implications of adapting the DRS for enhancing disaster resilience in school communities and underscore the importance of community engagement in disaster preparedness and education.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142473782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Political identity and risk politics: Evidence from a pandemic. 政治认同与风险政治：大流行病的证据。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-10-14 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17654

Eric D Raile, Pavielle Haines, Amber N W Raile, Elizabeth A Shanahan, David C W Parker

{"title":"Political identity and risk politics: Evidence from a pandemic.","authors":"Eric D Raile, Pavielle Haines, Amber N W Raile, Elizabeth A Shanahan, David C W Parker","doi":"10.1111/risa.17654","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17654","url":null,"abstract":"The way political identity serves as a foundation for political polarization in the United States permits elites to extend conflict rapidly to new issue areas. Further, the types of cognitive mechanisms and shortcuts used in the politically polarized information environment are similar to some of those used in risk perception. Consequently, political elites may easily create partisan risk positions, largely through politically focused social amplification of risk. The COVID-19 pandemic provided a natural experiment for testing predictions about such risk politics. We asked questions about pandemic-related views, behaviors, and policies at the outset of the pandemic in April 2020 and again in September 2020 via public opinion surveys. Our data and analyses focus primarily on a single state, with some analysis extended to four states. We begin by demonstrating strong linkages between political partisan identification on the one hand and support for co-partisan elites, use of partisan information sources, and support for co-partisan policies on the other hand. We then find evidence that pandemic risk positions correspond with partisan information sources and find support for a mechanism involving partisan-tinted evaluation of elite cues. Partisan risk positions quickly became part of the larger polarized structure of political support and views. Finally, our evidence shows on the balance that partisan risk positions related to the pandemic coalesced and strengthened over time. Overall, while self-identified Democrats consistently viewed the coronavirus as the primary threat, self-identified Republicans quickly pivoted toward threats to their freedoms and to the economy.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142473785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Multisource information fusion for safety risk assessment in complex projects considering dependence and uncertainty. 考虑到依赖性和不确定性，多源信息融合用于复杂项目的安全风险评估。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17651

Kai Guo, Limao Zhang

{"title":"Multisource information fusion for safety risk assessment in complex projects considering dependence and uncertainty.","authors":"Kai Guo, Limao Zhang","doi":"10.1111/risa.17651","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17651","url":null,"abstract":"The success of tunneling projects is crucial for infrastructure development. However, the potential leakage risk is particularly challenging due to the inherent uncertainties and fuzziness involved. To address this demanding challenge, a hybrid approach integrating the copula theory, cloud model, and risk matrix, is proposed. The dependence of multiple risk-related influential factors is explored by the construct of the copula-cloud model, and the diverse information is fused by applying the risk matrix to gain a crisp risk result. A case study is performed to test the applicability of the proposed approach, in which a risk index system consisting of nine critical factors is developed and Sobol-enabled global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is incorporated to investigate the contributions of different factors to the risk magnitude. Key findings are as follows: (1) Risk statuses of the studied three tunnel sections are perceived as under grade I (safe), II (low-risk), and III (medium-risk), respectively, and the waterproof material aspect is found prone to deteriorating the tunnel sections. Furthermore, the proposed approach allows for a better understanding of the trends in the risk statuses of the tunnel sections. (2) Strong interactions between influential factors exist and exert impacts on the final risk results, proving the necessity of studying the factor dependence. (3) The developed neutral risk matrix presents a strong robustness and displays a higher recognition capacity in risk assessment. The novelty of this research lies in the consideration of the dependence and uncertainty in multisource information fusion with a hybrid copula-cloud model, enabling to perform a robust risk assessment under different risk matrices with varying degrees of risk tolerance.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142401145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A decision analysis of cancer patients and the consumption of ready-to-eat salad. 癌症患者与食用即食沙拉的决策分析。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17658

Carly B Gomez, Jade Mitchell, Bradley P Marks

{"title":"A decision analysis of cancer patients and the consumption of ready-to-eat salad.","authors":"Carly B Gomez, Jade Mitchell, Bradley P Marks","doi":"10.1111/risa.17658","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17658","url":null,"abstract":"Listeria monocytogenes is a foodborne pathogen of concern for cancer patients, who face higher morbidity and mortality rates than the general population. The neutropenic diet (ND), which excludes fresh produce, is often utilized to mitigate this risk; however, an analysis weighing the theoretical listeriosis risk reduction of produce exclusion aspects of the ND and possible negative tradeoffs has never been conducted. Consequently, this work constructed decision analytic models using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to compare the impacts of the ND, such as increased neutropenic enterocolitis (NEC) likelihood, with three alternative dietary practices (safe food handling [SFH], surface blanching, and refrigeration only) across five age groups, for cancer patients who consume ready-to-eat salad. Less disruptive diets had fewer negative health impacts in all scenarios, with median alternative diet DALYs per person per chemotherapy cycle having lower values in terms of negative health outcomes (0.088-0.443) than the ND (0.619-3.102). DALYs were dominated by outcomes associated with NEC, which is more common in patients following the ND than in other diets. Switchover point analysis confirmed that, because of this discrepancy, there were no feasible values of other parameters that could justify the ND. Correspondingly, the sensitivity analysis indicated that NEC mortality rate and remaining life expectancy strongly affected DALYs, further illustrating the model's strong dependence on NEC outcomes. Given these findings, and the SFH's ease of implementation and high compliance rates, the SFH diet is recommended in place of the ND.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142401144","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Dynamic modeling of human error in industrial maintenance through structural analysis and system dynamics. 通过结构分析和系统动力学对工业维护中的人为错误进行动态建模。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17652

Vahideh Bafandegan Emroozi, Mostafa Kazemi, Alireza Pooya, Mahdi Doostparast

{"title":"Dynamic modeling of human error in industrial maintenance through structural analysis and system dynamics.","authors":"Vahideh Bafandegan Emroozi, Mostafa Kazemi, Alireza Pooya, Mahdi Doostparast","doi":"10.1111/risa.17652","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17652","url":null,"abstract":"Human error constitutes a significant cause of accidents across diverse industries, leading to adverse consequences and heightened disruptions in maintenance operations. Organizations can enhance their decision-making process by quantifying human errors and identifying the underlying influencing factors, thereby mitigating their repercussions. Consequently, it becomes crucial to examine the value of human error probability (HEP) during these activities. The objective of this paper is to determine and simulate HEP in maintenance tasks at a cement factory, utilizing performance shaping factors (PSFs). The research employs the cross-impact matrix multiplication applied to classification (MICMAC) analysis method to evaluate the dependencies, impacts, and relationships among the factors influencing human error. This approach classifies and assesses the dependencies and impacts of different factors on HEP, occupational accidents, and related costs. The study also underscores that PSFs can dynamically change under the influence of other variables, emphasizing the necessity to forecast the behavior of human error over time. Therefore, this paper utilizes the MICMAC method to analyze the interdependencies, relationships, and impact levels among different variables. These relationships are then utilized to optimize the implementation of the system dynamics (SD) method. An SD model is employed to forecast the system's behavior, and multiple scenarios are presented. By considering the HEP value, managers can adjust organizational conditions and personnel to ensure acceptability. The paper also presents various scenarios related to HEP to assist managers in making informed decisions.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142392975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0